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DOE OSTI2019

Assessing overall building energy performance of a large population of residential single-family homes using limited field data

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through the Building Energy Codes Program (BECP), supports building energy code development and implementation processes to achieve the maximum practicable, cost-effective improvements in energy efficiency while providing safe, healthy buildings for occupants. Currently, there is a lack of statistically representative data that shows how energy codes are implemented in the field and the energy savings opportunities that exist. To address this gap, DOE initiated a research study targeted at new residential single-family homes in 8 states starting in the fall of 2014. The study comprises of a baseline phase to determine current levels of compliance with the key energy provisions of the residential building energy code, identify issues, and calculate potential energy savings from improved compliance; a second phase implementing education, training and outreach activities designed to increase targeted code compliance; and a post-study phase to measure the impact of the training and outreach activities compared to the baseline phase. Initial analyses determined the code requirements with the largest energy impact and the minimum number of observations required to detect statistically significant differences in energy use. Data was collected in the field during a single site visit to avoid bias from repeat visits. However, the single site visit principle prevented energy simulation of individual homes due to the lack of all required model inputs. To address this, energy simulation was conducted using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s prototype building models and employing bootstrap random sampling on the data collected from all homes visited. The modeled energy consumption using the observed field data was evaluated relative to that associated with the minimum code requirements and potential savings associated with improved compliance of select items were assessed. This paper discusses the methodology developed for this field study, and presents the results and findings from the baseline phase.

Xie, YuLong↗

NASA NTRS1991

An Exploratory Exercise in Taguchi Analysis of Design Parameters: Application to a Shuttle-to-space Station Automated Approach Control System

The chief goals of the summer project have been twofold - first, for my host group and myself to learn as much of the working details of Taguchi analysis as possible in the time allotted, and, secondly, to apply the methodology to a design problem with the intention of establishing a preliminary set of near-optimal (in the sense of producing a desired response) design parameter values from among a large number of candidate factor combinations. The selected problem is concerned with determining design factor settings for an automated approach program which is to have the capability of guiding the Shuttle into the docking port of the Space Station under controlled conditions so as to meet and/or optimize certain target criteria. The candidate design parameters under study were glide path (i.e., approach) angle, path intercept and approach gains, and minimum impulse bit mode (a parameter which defines how Shuttle jets shall be fired). Several performance criteria were of concern: terminal relative velocity at the instant the two spacecraft are mated; docking offset; number of Shuttle jet firings in certain specified directions (of interest due to possible plume impingement on the Station's solar arrays), and total RCS (a measure of the energy expended in performing the approach/docking maneuver). In the material discussed here, we have focused on single performance criteria - total RCS. An analysis of the possibility of employing a multiobjective function composed of a weighted sum of the various individual criteria has been undertaken, but is, at this writing, incomplete. Results from the Taguchi statistical analysis indicate that only three of the original four posited factors are significant in affecting RCS response. A comparison of model simulation output (via Monte Carlo) with predictions based on estimated factor effects inferred through the Taguchi experiment array data suggested acceptable or close agreement between the two except at the predicted optimum point, where a difference outside a rule-of-thumb bound was observed. We have concluded that there is most likely an interaction effect not provided for in the original orthogonal array selected as the basis for our experimental design. However, we feel that the data indicates that this interaction is a mild one and that inclusion of its effect will not alter the location of the optimum.

Deal, Don E.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Time reversal symmetry of generalized quantum measurements with past and future boundary conditions

Here we expand the time reversal symmetry arguments of quantum mechanics, originally proposed by Wigner in the context of unitary dynamics, to contain situations including generalized measurements for monitored quantum systems. We propose a scheme to derive the time-reversed measurement operators by considering the Schrödinger picture dynamics of a qubit coupled to a measuring device, and show that the time-reversed measurement operators form a Positive Operator Valued Measure (POVM) set. We present three particular examples to illustrate time reversal of measurement operators: (1) the Gaussian spin measurement, (2) a dichotomous POVM for spin, and (3) the measurement of qubit fluorescence. We then propose a general rule to unravel any rank two qubit measurement, and show that the backward dynamics obeys the retrodicted equations of the forward dynamics starting from the time reversed final state. We demonstrate the time reversal invariance of dynamical equations using the example of qubit fluorescence. We also generalize the discussion of a statistical arrow of time for continuous quantum measurements introduced by Dressel et al. (Phys Rev Lett 119:220507, 2017): we show that the backward probabilities can be computed from a process similar to retrodiction from the time-reversed final state, and extend the definition of an arrow of time to ensembles prepared with pre- and post-selections, where we obtain a non-vanishing arrow of time in general. We discuss sufficient conditions for when time’s arrow vanishes and show our method also captures the contributions to time’s arrow due to natural physical processes like relaxation of an atom to its ground state. As a special case, we recover the time reversibility of the weak value as its complex conjugate using our method, and discuss how our conclusions differ from the time-symmetry argument of Aharonov–Bergmann–Lebowitz rule.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Natural circulation flow distribution within a multi-branch manifold

Currently, natural circulation systems are extensively used in different applications but they need to be fully characterized to understand their behavior under different boundary conditions. CFD tools provide means to analyze these systems, yet, they need additional experimental data to be validated. Experimental measurements of the flow distribution within a multiple-branch manifold under natural circulation have been conducted using PIV. Measurements have demonstrated that the flow within the risers behave similarly, differing between 6.68% and 12.63% in speed and vertical velocity, and between 8.7% and 17.5% for vertical turbulence strength at selected heights. A back-flow region has been observed at the bottom of the main channel, with an increasing cross sectional area moving far from the manifold inlet, while stream-wise flow occupies the top section of the main channel. The experimental activity has also produced a complete experimental data set with first and second order statistics of the flow that can be used for CFD code validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station

Abstract The International Monitoring System (IMS) is part of the verification regime for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO). At entry-into-force, half of the 80 radionuclide stations will be able to measure concentrations of several radioactive xenon isotopes produced in nuclear explosions, and then the full network may be populated with xenon monitoring afterward (Bowyer et al., 2013). Fission-based production of 99Mo for medical purposes also releases radioxenon isotopes to the atmosphere (Saey, 2009). One of the ways to mitigate the effect of emissions from medical isotope production is the use of stack monitoring data, if it were available, so that the effect of radioactive xenon emissions could be subtracted from the effect from a presumed nuclear explosion, when detected at an IMS station location. To date, no studies have addressed the impacts the time resolution or data accuracy of stack monitoring data have on predicted concentrations at an IMS station location. Recently, participants from seven nations used atmospheric transport modeling to predict the time-history of 133Xe concentration measurements at an IMS station in Germany using stack monitoring data from a medical isotope production facility in Belgium. Participants received only stack monitoring data and used the atmospheric transport model and meteorological data of their choice. Some of the models predicted the highest measured concentrations quite well (a high composite statistical model comparison rank or a small mean square error with the measured values). The results suggest release data on a 15 min time spacing is best. The model comparison rank and ensemble analysis suggests that combining multiple models may provide more accurate predicted concentrations than any single model. Further research is needed to identify optimal methods for selecting ensemble members and those methods may depend on the specific transport problem. None of the submissions based only on the stack monitoring data predicted the small measured concentrations very well. The one submission that best predicted small concentrations also included releases from nuclear power plants. Modeling of sources by other nuclear facilities with smaller releases than medical isotope production facilities may be important in discriminating those releases from releases from a nuclear explosion.

133Xe↗

DOE OSTI2014

Attitude towards the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste in a municipal solid waste management system. A case study

Highlights: • Attitude towards incorporating biowaste selective collection is analysed. • Willingness to participate and to pay in biowaste selective collection is obtained. • Socioeconomic aspects affecting WtParticipate and WtPay are identified. - Abstract: European waste legislation has been encouraging for years the incorporation of selective collection systems for the biowaste fraction. European countries are therefore incorporating it into their current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. However, this incorporation involves changes in the current waste management habits of households. In this paper, the attitude of the public towards the incorporation of selective collection of biowaste into an existing MSWM system in a Spanish municipality is analysed. A semi-structured telephone interview was used to obtain information regarding aspects such as: level of participation in current waste collection systems, willingness to participate in selective collection of biowaste, reasons and barriers that affect participation, willingness to pay for the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste and the socioeconomic characteristics of citizens who are willing to participate and pay for selective collection of biowaste. The results showed that approximately 81% of the respondents were willing to participate in selective collection of biowaste. This percentage would increase until 89% if the Town Council provided specific waste bins and bags, since the main barrier to participate in the new selective collection system is the need to use specific waste bin and bags for the separation of biowaste. A logit response model was applied to estimate the average willingness to pay, obtaining an estimated mean of 7.5% on top of the current waste management annual tax. The relationship of willingness to participate and willingness to pay for the implementation of this new selective collection with the socioeconomic variables (age, gender, size of the household, work, education and income) was analysed. Chi-square independence tests and binary logistic regression was used for willingness to participate, not being obtained any significant relationship. Chi-square independence tests, ordinal logistic regression and ordinary linear regression was applied for willingness to pay, obtaining statistically significant relationship for most of the socioeconomic variables.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Historical Variability of South Asian Monsoon Lows and Depressions With an Optimized Tracking Algorithm

Abstract Cyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Statistical mentoring at early training and career stages

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), statistical scientists develop solutions for a variety of national security challenges through scientific excellence, typically as members of interdisciplinary teams. At LANL, mentoring is actively encouraged and practiced to develop statistical skills and positive career-building behaviors. Mentoring activities targeted at different career phases from student to junior staff are an important catalyst for both short and long term career development. This article discusses mentoring strategies for undergraduate and graduate students through internships as well as for postdoctoral research associates and junior staff. Topics addressed include project selection, progress, and outcome; intellectual and social activities that complement the student internship experience; key skills/knowledge not typically obtained in academic training; and the impact of such internships on students’ careers. Experiences and strategies from a number of successful mentorships are presented. Feedback from former mentees obtained via a questionnaire is incorporated. As a result, these responses address some of the benefits the respondents received from mentoring, helpful contributions and advice from their mentors, key skills learned, and how mentoring impacted their later careers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Beyond the plane-parallel approximation for redshift surveys

Redshift -space distortions privilege the location of the observer in cosmological redshift surveys, breaking the translational symmetry of the underlying theory. This violation of statistical homogeneity has consequences for the modelling of clustering observables, leading to what are frequently called 'wide-angle effects'. We study these effects analytically, computing their signature in the clustering of the multipoles in configuration and Fourier space. We take into account both physical wide-angle contributions as well as the terms generated by the galaxy selection function. Similar considerations also affect the way power spectrum estimators are constructed. We quantify in an analytical way the biases that enter and clarify the relation between what we measure and the underlying theoretical modelling. The presence of an angular window function is also discussed. Motivated by this analysis, we present new estimators for the three dimensional Cartesian power spectrum and bispectrum multipoles written in terms of spherical Fourier-Bessel coefficients. In conclusion, we show how the latter have several interesting properties, allowing in particular a clear separation between angular and radial modes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reducing Communication Overhead in Federated Learning for Network Anomaly Detection with Adaptive Client Selection

Communication overhead in federated learning (FL) poses a significant challenge for network anomaly detection systems, where the myriad of client configurations and network conditions can severely impact system efficiency and detection accuracy. While existing approaches attempt to address this through individual optimization techniques, they often fail to maintain the delicate balance between reduced overhead and detection performance. This paper presents an adaptive FL framework that dynamically combines batch size optimization, client selection, and asynchronous updates to achieve efficient anomaly detection. Through extensive profiling and experimental analysis on two distinct datasets-UNSW-NBIS for general network traffic and ROAD for automotive networks-our framework reduces communication overhead by 97.6%; (from 700.0s to 16.8s) compared to synchronous baseline approaches while maintaining comparable detection accuracy (95.10%; vs. 95.12%;). Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney U test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) over existing FL approaches across both datasets, demonstrating the framework's adaptability to different network security contexts. Detailed profiling analysis reveals the efficiency gains through dramatic reductions in GPU operations and memory transfers while maintaining robust detection performance under varying client conditions.

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso]↗

DOE OSTI2018

Predicting peak spectral sensitivities of vertebrate cone visual pigments using atomistic molecular simulations

Vision is the dominant sensory modality in many organisms for foraging, predator avoidance, and social behaviors including mate selection. Vertebrate visual perception is initiated when light strikes rod and cone photoreceptors within the neural retina of the eye. Sensitivity to individual colors, i.e., peak spectral sensitivities (λ max ) of visual pigments, are a function of the type of chromophore and the amino acid sequence of the associated opsin protein in the photoreceptors. Large differences in peak spectral sensitivities can result from minor differences in amino acid sequence of cone opsins. To determine how minor sequence differences could result in large spectral shifts we selected a spectrally-diverse group of 14 teleost Rh2 cone opsins for which sequences and λ max are experimentally known. Classical molecular dynamics simulations were carried out after embedding chromophore-associated homology structures within explicit bilayers and water. These simulations revealed structural features of visual pigments, particularly within the chromophore, that contributed to diverged spectral sensitivities. Statistical tests performed on all the observed structural parameters associated with the chromophore revealed that a two-term, first-order regression model was sufficient to accurately predict λ max over a range of 452–528 nm. The approach was accurate, efficient and simple in that site-by-site molecular modifications or complex quantum mechanics models were not required to predict λ max . These studies identify structural features associated with the chromophore that may explain diverged spectral sensitivities, and provide a platform for future, functionally predictive opsin modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Real-Time Alpine Measurement System Using Wireless Sensor Networks

Monitoring the snow pack is crucial for many stakeholders, whether for hydro-power optimization, water management or flood control. Traditional forecasting relies on regression methods, which often results in snow melt runoff predictions of low accuracy in non-average years. Existing ground-based real-time measurement systems do not cover enough physiographic variability and are mostly installed at low elevations. We present the hardware and software design of a state-of-the-art distributedWireless Sensor Network (WSN)-based autonomous measurement system with real-time remote data transmission that gathers data of snow depth, air temperature, air relative humidity, soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation in physiographically representative locations. Elevation, aspect, slope and vegetation are used to select network locations, and distribute sensors throughout a given network location, since they govern snow pack variability at various scales. Three WSNs were installed in the Sierra Nevada of Northern California throughout the North Fork of the Feather River, upstream of the Oroville dam and multiple powerhouses along the river. The WSNs gathered hydrologic variables and network health statistics throughout the 2017 water year, one of northern Sierra’s wettest years on record. These networks leverage an ultra-low-power wireless technology to interconnect their components and offer recovery features, resilience to data loss due to weather and wildlife disturbances and real-time topological visualizations of the network health. Data show considerable spatial variability of snow depth, even within a 1 km 2 network location. In conclusion, combined with existing systems, these WSNs can better detect precipitation timing and phase in, monitor sub-daily dynamics of infiltration and surface runoff during precipitation or snow melt, and inform hydro power managers about actual ablation and end-of-season date across the landscape.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1974

An evaluation of multiband photography for rock discrimination

The author has identified the following significant results. With the advent of ERTS and Skylab satellites, multiband imagery and photography have become readily available to geologists. The ability of multiband photography to discriminate sedimentary rocks was examined. More than 8600 in situ measurements of band reflectance of the sedimentary rocks of the Front Range, Colorado, were acquired. Statistical analysis of these measurements showed that: (1) measurements from one site can be used at another site 100 miles away; (2) there is basically only one spectral reflectance curve for these rocks, with constant amplitude differences between the curves; and (3) the natural variation is so large that at least 150 measurements per formation are required to select best filters. These conclusions are supported by subjective tests with aerial multiband photography. The designed multiband photography concept for rock discrimination is not a practical method of improving sedimentary rock discrimination capabilities.

Lee, K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Wavelength dependence of position angle in polarization standards

Eleven of the 15 stars on Serkowski's (1974) list of 'Standard Stars with Large Interstellar Polarization' were investigated to determine whether the orientation of the plane of their linear polarization showed any dependence on wavelength. Nine of the eleven stars exhibited a statistically significant wavelength dependence of position angle when measured with an accuracy of about 0.1 deg standard deviation. For the majority of these stars, the effect is caused primarily by intrinsic polarization. The calibration of polarimeter position angles in a celestial coordinate frame must evidently be done at the 0.1 deg level of accuracy by using only carefully selected standard stars or by using other astronomical or laboratory methods.

Dolan, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Study of helium transfer technology for STICCR: Fluid management

The Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) is a long life cryogenically cooled space based telescope for infrared astronomy from 2 to 700 microns currently under study and planned for launch in the mid 90's. SIRTF will operate as a multi-user facility, initially carrying 3 instruments at the focal plane. It will be cooled to below 2 K by superfluid liquid helium to achieve radiometric sensitivity limited only by the statistical fluctuations in the natural infrared background radiation over most of its spectral range. The lifetime of the mission will be limited by the lifetime of the liquid helium supply, and is currently baselined to be 2 years. Candidates are reviewed for a liquid management device to be used in the resupply of liquid helium, and for the selection of an appropriate candidate.

Frank, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The SERENDIP 2 SETI project: Current status

Over the past 30 years, interest in extraterrestrial intelligence has progressed from philosophical discussion to rigorous scientific endeavors attempting to make contact. Since it is impossible to assess the probability of success and the amount of telescope time needed for detection, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Projects are plagued with the problem of attaining the large amounts of time needed on the world's precious few large radio telescopes. To circumvent this problem, the Search for Extraterrestrial Radio Emissions from Nearby Developed Intelligent Populations (SERENDIP) instrument operates autonomously in a piggyback mode utilizing whatever observing plan is chosen by the primary observer. In this way, large quantities of high-quality data can be collected in a cost-effective and unobtrusive manner. During normal operations, SERENDIP logs statistically significant events for further offline analysis. Due to the large number of terrestrial and near-space transmitters on earth, a major element of the SERENDIP project involves identifying and rejecting spurious signals from these sources. Another major element of the SERENDIP Project (as well as most other SETI efforts) is detecting extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) signals. Events selected as candidate ETI signals are studied further in a targeted search program which utilizes between 24 to 48 hours of dedicated telescope time each year.

Bowyer, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

N III line emission in planetary nebulae - Not Bowen fluorescence

A direct comparison of photometrically observed line ratios in the N III 4640 and 4100 A multiplets emitted by planetary nebulae with theoretically predicted ratios expected from the postulated Bowen process of selective photoexcitation by an O III resonance line shows that the N III lines are not produced by the Bowen process as has been commonly accepted. This will have consequences for the interpretation of these lines in other astrophysical sources. A further, unexpected result is that the N III level populations involved are found to be essentially in statistical equilibrium. Possible populating mechanisms are briefly discussed.

Kastner, S. O.↗