Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Diazotroph Community Characterization via a High-Throughput nifH Amplicon Sequencing and Analysis Pipeline

The dinitrogenase reductase gene ( nifH ) is the most widely established molecular marker for the study of nitrogen-fixing prokaryotes in nature. A large number of PCR primer sets have been developed for nifH amplification, and the effective deployment of these approaches should be guided by a rapid, easy-to-use analysis protocol. Bioinformatic analysis of marker gene sequences also requires considerable expertise. In this study, we advance the state of the art for nifH analysis by evaluating nifH primer set performance, developing an improved amplicon sequencing workflow, and implementing a user-friendly bioinformatics pipeline. Furthermore, the developed amplicon sequencing workflow is a three-stage PCR-based approach that uses established technologies for incorporating sample-specific barcode sequences and sequencing adapters. Based on our primer evaluation, we recommend the Ando primer set be used with a modified annealing temperature of 58°C, as this approach captured the largest diversity of nifH templates, including paralog cluster IV/V sequences. To improve nifH sequence analysis, we developed a computational pipeline which infers taxonomy and optionally filters out paralog sequences. In addition, we employed an empirical model to derive optimal operational taxonomic unit (OTU) cutoffs for the nifH gene at the species, genus, and family levels. A comprehensive workflow script named TaxADivA (TAXonomy Assignment and DIVersity Assessment) is provided to ease processing and analysis of nifH amplicons. Our approach is then validated through characterization of diazotroph communities across environmental gradients in beach sands impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, in a peat moss-dominated wetland, and in various plant compartments of a sugarcane field. IMPORTANCE: Nitrogen availability often limits ecosystem productivity, and nitrogen fixation, exclusive to prokaryotes, comprises a major source of nitrogen input that sustains food webs. The nifH gene, which codes for the iron protein of the nitrogenase enzyme, is the most widely established molecular marker for the study of nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (diazotrophs) in nature. In this study, a flexible sequencing/analysis pipeline, named TaxADivA, was developed for nifH amplicons produced by Illumina paired-end sequencing, and it enables an inference of taxonomy, performs clustering, and produces output in formats that may be used by programs that facilitate data exploration and analysis. Diazotroph diversity and community composition are linked to ecosystem functioning, and our results advance the phylogenetic characterization of diazotroph communities by providing empirically derived nifH similarity cutoffs for species, genus, and family levels. Thus, the utility of our pipeline is validated for diazotroph communities in a variety of ecosystems, including contaminated beach sands, peatland ecosystems, living plant tissues, and rhizosphere soil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the effect of lithium-induced pedestal profiles on scrape-off-layer turbulence and the heat flux width

The effect of lithium (Li) wall coatings on scrape-off-layer (SOL) turbulence in the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) is modeled with the Lodestar SOLT (SOL Turbulence) code. Specifically, the implications for the SOL heat flux width of experimentally observed, Li-induced changes in the pedestal profiles are considered. The SOLT code used in the modeling has been expanded recently to include ion temperature evolution and ion diamagnetic drift effects. This work focuses on two NSTX discharges occurring pre- and with-Li deposition. The simulation density and temperature profiles are constrained, inside the last closed flux surface only, to match those measured in the two experiments, and the resulting drift-interchange-driven turbulence is explored. The effect of Li enters the simulation only through the pedestal profile constraint: Li modifies the experimental density and temperature profiles in the pedestal, and these profiles affect the simulated SOL turbulence. The power entering the SOL measured in the experiments is matched in the simulations by adjusting “free” dissipation parameters (e.g., diffusion coefficients) that are not measured directly in the experiments. With power-matching, (a) the heat flux SOL width is smaller, as observed experimentally by infrared thermography and (b) the simulated density fluctuation amplitudes are reduced with Li, as inferred for the experiments as well from reflectometry analysis. The instabilities and saturation mechanisms that underlie the SOLT model equilibria are also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗

Seismic Source Modeling Software Enhancements (FY21)

Seismic source modeling allows researchers both to simulate how a source that induces seismic waves interacts with the Earth to produce observed seismograms and, inversely, to infer what the time histories, sizes, and force distributions were for a seismic source given observed seismograms. In this report, we discuss improvements made in FY21 to our software as applies to both the forward and inverse seismic source modeling problems. For the forward portion of the problem, we have added the ability to use full 3-D nonlinear simulations by implementing 3-D time varying boundary conditions within Sandia’s linear seismic code Parelasti. Secondly, on the inverse source modeling side, we have developed software that allows us to invert seismic gradiometer-derived observations in conjunction with standard translational motion seismic data to infer properties of the source that may improve characterization in certain circumstances. First, we describe the basic theory behind each software enhancement and then demonstrate the software in action with some simple examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A parsimonious modular approach to building a mechanistic belowground carbon and nitrogen model

Abstract Soil decomposition models range from simple empirical functions to those that represent physical, chemical, and biological processes. Here we develop a parsimonious, modular C and N cycle model, the Dual Arrhenius Michaelis‐Menten‐Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Phyisology (DAMM‐MCNiP), that generates testable hypotheses regarding the effect of temperature, moisture, and substrate supply on C and N cycling. We compared this model to DAMM alone and an empirical model of heterotrophic respiration based on Harvard Forest data. We show that while different model structures explain similar amounts of variation in respiration, they differ in their ability to infer processes that affect C flux. We applied DAMM‐MCNiP to explain an observed seasonal hysteresis in the relationship between respiration and temperature and show using an exudation simulation that the strength of the priming effect depended on the stoichiometry of the inputs. Low C:N inputs stimulated priming of soil organic matter decomposition, but high C:N inputs were preferentially utilized by microbes as a C source with limited priming. The simplicity of DAMM‐MCNiP's simultaneous representations of temperature, moisture, substrate supply, enzyme activity, and microbial growth processes is unique among microbial physiology models and is sufficiently parsimonious that it could be incorporated into larger‐scale models of C and N cycling.

Abramoff, Rose Z.↗

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exogeological inferences from white dwarf pollutants: the impact of stellar physics

Many white dwarfs have accreted material from their own planetary systems. These objects can be used to infer the composition of exoplanetary material and identify evidence for key geological processes. However, the white dwarf atmospheric physics distorts the inferred material composition away from the true composition, mainly through differential atomic diffusion of the accreted metals. Correcting for this effect is essential, but is dependent on various physical assumptions associated with the white dwarf itself. We first focus on the effect of assumptions related to convective overshoot and thermohaline mixing on the atomic diffusion time-scales. For white dwarfs with H-dominated atmospheres between 12000 K and 18000 K⁠, we find that including a complete treatment of convective overshoot decreases the inferred Fe and O abundances in accreted material. For these white dwarfs, we also find that including thermohaline mixing decreases Fe and O abundances. For He-dominated systems, the effect of convective overshoot is comparatively minor. We then explore the overall effect of other physical assumptions by comparing publicly available grids of diffusion time-scales. We find that the choice of model grid can have a large impact for white dwarfs with He-dominated atmospheres, notably on the inferred core to mantle ratio of accreted material. We identify several systems for which the geological interpretation is robust against these systematics. We also present a ‘discrepancy metric’ which can be used to estimate the potential impact of changing the stellar physics without requiring detailed modelling.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

A flexible event reconstruction based on machine learning and likelihood principles

Event reconstruction is a central step in many particle physics experiments, turning detector observables into parameter estimates; for example estimating the energy of an interaction given the sensor readout of a detector. A corresponding likelihood function is often intractable, and approximations need to be constructed. Here, in our work, we first show how the full likelihood for a many-sensor detector can be broken apart into smaller terms, and secondly how we can train neural networks to approximate all terms solely based on forward simulation. Our technique results in a fast, flexible, and close-to-optimal surrogate model proportional to the likelihood and can be used in conjunction with standard inference techniques allowing for a consistent treatment of uncertainties. We illustrate our technique for parameter inference in neutrino telescopes based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian posterior sampling. Given its great flexibility, we also showcase our method for geometry optimization enabling to learn optimal detector designs. Lastly, we apply our method to realistic simulation of a ton-scale water-based liquid scintillator detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Terrestrial Gamma‐Ray Flash Following Intense Negative Return Stroke Observed With BIMAP‐3D

We report ground-based observations of a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) associated with a strong negative cloud-to-ground lightning strike (-CG) which occurred near Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico, USA. Gamma photons were detected by the Terrestrial High-energy Observations of Radiation (THOR) instrument, developed at the University of California, Santa Cruz, which has been hosted at LANL since 2022. Simultaneous measurements were also made with the 3-Dimensional Broadband Interferometric Mapping and Polarization (BIMAP-3D) system, which includes 3D lightning mapping, two fast antennas, and an additional plastic scintillator. Additional field change waveforms were obtained from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). The lightning initiated about 1 km above the ground, leading to a powerful -CG with an ENTLN peak current of −237 kA and bipolar field change matching the recently described “energetic compact stroke” (ECS) shape. The TGF was then observed ∼35 µs after the start of the return stroke. We also observe an electric field pulse likely produced by the TGF either in isolation or by coupling to the lightning channel. Based on modeling of the radiated electric field and photon propagation through the atmosphere we infer that the TGF source was on the order of 1⁢0 17 photons. This TGF and associated lightning are extremely similar to some recently reported ECS TGFs in coastal Japan in winter, but we report the first observation of this phenomenon outside of Japan in a different climate, terrain, and season.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Training calibration-based counterfactual explainers for deep learning models in medical image analysis

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods in healthcare is coupled with the critical need for techniques to rigorously introspect models and thereby ensure that they behave reliably. This has led to the design of explainable AI techniques that uncover the relationships between discernible data signatures and model predictions. In this context, counterfactual explanations that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given query while producing desired changes in model predictions have become popular. This under-constrained, inverse problem is vulnerable to introducing irrelevant feature manipulations, particularly when the model’s predictions are not well-calibrated. Hence, in this paper, we propose the TraCE (training calibration-based explainers) technique, which utilizes a novel uncertainty-based interval calibration strategy for reliably synthesizing counterfactuals. Given the wide-spread adoption of machine-learned solutions in radiology, our study focuses on deep models used for identifying anomalies in chest X-ray images. Using rigorous empirical studies, we demonstrate the superiority of TraCE explanations over several state-of-the-art baseline approaches, in terms of several widely adopted evaluation metrics. Our findings show that TraCE can be used to obtain a holistic understanding of deep models by enabling progressive exploration of decision boundaries, to detect shortcuts, and to infer relationships between patient attributes and disease severity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Local perturbations perturb—exponentially–locally

We elaborate on the principle that for gapped quantum spin systems with local interaction, “local perturbations [in the Hamiltonian] perturb locally [the groundstate].” This principle was established by Bachmann et al. [Commun. Math. Phys. 309, 835–871 (2012)], relying on the “spectral flow technique” or “quasi-adiabatic continuation” [M. B. Hastings, Phys. Rev. B 69, 104431 (2004)] to obtain locality estimates with sub-exponential decay in the distance to the spatial support of the perturbation. We use ideas of Hamza et al. [J. Math. Phys. 50, 095213 (2009)] to obtain similarly a transformation between gapped eigenvectors and their perturbations that is local with exponential decay. This allows to improve locality bounds on the effect of perturbations on the low lying states in certain gapped models with a unique “bulk ground state” or “topological quantum order.” We also give some estimate on the exponential decay of correlations in models with impurities where some relevant correlations decay faster than one would naively infer from the global gap of the system, as one also expects in disordered systems with a localized groundstate.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A neutron recoil-spectrometer for measuring yield and determining liner areal densities at the Z facility

For this study, a proof-of-principle CR-39 based neutron-recoil-spectrometer was built and fielded on the Z facility. Data from this experiment match indium activation yields within a factor of 2 using simplified instrument response function (IRF) models. The data also demonstrates the need for neutron shielding in order to infer liner areal densities. A new shielded design has been developed. The spectrometer is expected to achieve signal-to-background greater than 2 for the down-scattered neutron signal and greater than 30 for the primary signal.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

CHEMICALLY DISTINCT NUCLEI AND OUTFLOWING SHOCKED MOLECULAR GAS IN Arp 220

We present the results of interferometric spectral line observations of Arp 220 at 3.5 mm and 1.2 mm from the Plateau de Bure Interferometer, imaging the two nuclear disks in H{sup 13}CN(1-0) and (3-2), H{sup 13}CO{sup +}(1-0) and (3-2), and HN{sup 13}C(3-2) as well as SiO(2-1) and (6-5), HC{sup 15}N(3-2), and SO(6{sub 6}-5{sub 5}). The gas traced by SiO(6-5) has a complex and extended kinematic signature including a prominent P Cygni profile, almost identical to previous observations of HCO{sup +}(3-2). Spatial offsets 0.''1 north and south of the continuum center in the emission and absorption of the SiO(6-5) P Cygni profile in the western nucleus (WN) imply a bipolar outflow, delineating the northern and southern edges of its disk and suggesting a disk radius of ∼40 pc, consistent with that found by ALMA observations of Arp 220. We address the blending of SiO(6-5) and H{sup 13}CO{sup +}(3-2) by considering two limiting cases with regards to the H{sup 13}CO{sup +} emission throughout our analysis. Large velocity gradient modeling is used to constrain the physical conditions of the gas and to infer abundance ratios in the two nuclei. Our most conservative lower limit on the [H{sup 13}CN]/[H{sup 13}CO{sup +}] abundance ratio is 11 in the WN, compared with 0.10 in the eastern nucleus (EN). Comparing these ratios to the literature we argue on chemical grounds for an energetically significant active galactic nucleus in the WN driving either X-ray or shock chemistry, and a dominant starburst in the EN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SEARCHING FOR PLANETS IN HOLEY DEBRIS DISKS WITH THE APODIZING PHASE PLATE

We present our first results from a high-contrast imaging search for planetary mass companions around stars with gapped debris disks, as inferred from the stars' bright infrared excesses. For the six considered stars, we model the disks' unresolved infrared spectral energy distributions in order to derive the temperature and location of the disk components. With VLT/NaCo Apodizing Phase Plate coronagraphic L'-band imaging, we search for planetary mass companions that may be sculpting the disks. We detect neither disks nor companions in this sample, confirmed by comparing plausible point sources with archival data. In order to calculate our mass sensitivity limit, we revisit the stellar age estimates. One target, HD 17848, at 540 ± 100 Myr old is significantly older than previously estimated. We then discuss our high-contrast imaging results with respect to the disk properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE SOLAR CONVECTION ZONE. II. HELIOSEISMIC INVERSIONS OF GONG DATA

Meridional flow is thought to play a very important role in the dynamics of the solar convection zone; however, because of its relatively small amplitude, precisely measuring it poses a significant challenge. Here we present a complete time–distance helioseismic analysis of about 2 years of ground-based Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Doppler data to retrieve the meridional circulation profile for modest latitudes in an attempt to corroborate results from other studies. We use an empirical correction to the travel times due to an unknown center-to-limb systematic effect. The helioseismic inversion procedure is first tested and reasonably validated on artificial data from a large-scale numerical simulation followed by a test to broadly recover the solar differential rotation found from global seismology. From GONG data, we measure poleward photospheric flows at all latitudes with properties that are comparable with earlier studies and a shallow equatorward flow about 65 Mm beneath the surface, in agreement with recent findings from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data. No strong evidence of multiple circulation cells in depth or latitude is found, yet the whole phase space has not yet been explored. Tests of mass flux conservation are then carried out on the inferred GONG and HMI flows and compared to a fiducial numerical baseline from models, and we find that the continuity equation is poorly satisfied. While the two disparate data sets do give similar results for about the outer 15% of the interior radius, the total inverted circulation pattern appears to be unphysical in terms of mass conservation when interpreted over modest time scales. We can likely attribute this to both the influence of realization noise and subtle effects in the data and measurement procedure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STAR CLUSTER FORMATION WITH STELLAR FEEDBACK AND LARGE-SCALE INFLOW

During star cluster formation, ongoing mass accretion is resisted by stellar feedback in the form of protostellar outflows from the low-mass stars and photo-ionization and radiation pressure feedback from the massive stars. We model the evolution of cluster-forming regions during a phase in which both accretion and feedback are present and use these models to investigate how star cluster formation might terminate. Protostellar outflows are the strongest form of feedback in low-mass regions, but these cannot stop cluster formation if matter continues to flow in. In more massive clusters, radiation pressure and photo-ionization rapidly clear the cluster-forming gas when its column density is too small. We assess the rates of dynamical mass ejection and of evaporation, while accounting for the important effect of dust opacity on photo-ionization. Our models are consistent with the census of protostellar outflows in NGC 1333 and Serpens South and with the dust temperatures observed in regions of massive star formation. Comparing observations of massive cluster-forming regions against our model parameter space, and against our expectations for accretion-driven evolution, we infer that massive-star feedback is a likely cause of gas disruption in regions with velocity dispersions less than a few kilometers per second, but that more massive and more turbulent regions are too strongly bound for stellar feedback to be disruptive.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗