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DOE OSTI2016

Modelling individual variability in growth of bull trout in the Walla Walla River Basin using a hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model

Abstract We examined growth in length of fluvial bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Walla Walla River Basin, Washington and Oregon. Our objectives were to quantify individual variability in growth; examine growth within and among years, life history forms, life stages and sexes; and estimate von Bertalanffy growth parameters. Individual variability was evaluated by modelling asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) and the growth coefficient ( k ) as random variables. All models were fit with Bayesian methods and were evaluated for fit by the deviance information criterion. By incorporating individual variability, population‐level estimates of L ∞ and k appeared appropriate and estimated growth trajectories for specific bull trout fit individual observed patterns in growth. Growth trajectories and positive correlation between individual estimates of L ∞ and k suggest that some individuals grow at a faster rate and reach a larger maximum size than other individuals and those differences are maintained throughout life. Selected models suggest that fluvial migrants have higher estimates of L ∞ and k than residents, but there were only slight differences in parameter estimates among migrants from two adjacent spawning populations in the Walla Walla River Basin, as well as between males and females. Growth rates increased for fluvial migrants after subadult emigration. Individual variability in growth is consistent with the life history diversity assumed essential for bull trout population persistence. Quantifying this variability is important for modelling population dynamics and viability to conserve this threatened species.

Harris, Julianne E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

IUE spectroscopy, visible-band polarimetry, and radiometry of V641 Mon

This hot, double line, ellipsoidal variable member of NGC 2264 has been shown previously to be either a semi-detached or contact close binary. Low-resolution IUE spectra are best fitted to a Kurucz model atmosphere for very small (approximately 0.08 mag) E(B-V). The familiar interstellar absorption dip near lambda 2200 is apparently absent. A suitable model atmosphere can be fitted to the IUE fluxes, but flux excesses (compared to the model) appear for all the published U through L magnitudes. The spectrum of the B through L excess appears to follow a .0001 lambda dependence. It is shown that this cannot be interpreted as arising from another star fortuitously observed in the visible band or IR. Ground based polarization measures indicate V641 Mon to be a polarization variable. Previous and new V light curves show the amplitude of light variability itself to be variable by about a factor of 2. It is suggested that all these observed characteristics are best explained by postulating "third light" and identifying part of it with Rayleigh scattered starlight very near to the stars. From this same region there arise circumstellar absorptions which give rise to nontheoretical strengths for Si II and Si III lines.

Koch, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reformulating a Gurson-based dynamic damage model and demonstrating improved predictive power and numerical robustness

The original Tepla (TEnsile PLAsticity) ductile damage model, based on the Gurson yield surface, has long been used to model damage evolution and material failure under dynamic loading. Unfortunately, Tepla suffered from mesh sensitivity, numerical instability, and limited predictive capability. Here, we theoretically reformulate Tepla to address these issues. We especially focus on the prediction of porosity, which is the key state variable used for modeling ductile damage, as compared to more easily measured surface velocities, which are at best an indirect measure of damage. Key model changes include separating the viscosity during volumetric void growth from underlying shear strength behavior and switching to an iterative bisection solver. The new Tepla is then calibrated on incipient spall experiments on half-hard copper and tantalum, which demonstrate its ability to simultaneously fit the model to recovered porosity distributions and measured surface velocities, a stringent test. Improved numerical behavior, such as greatly reduced mesh sensitivity, is also shown in those simulations. Finally, the new Tepla model is applied to several high-explosive loaded, sweeping wave experiments, showing the ability of the model to predict behavior on tests with significantly different loading conditions and histories than the calibration data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Kinetic Modeling of a Silicon Refining Process in a Moist Hydrogen Atmosphere

We developed a kinetic model that considers both silicon loss and boron removal in a metallurgical grade silicon refining process. This model was based on the hypotheses of reversible reactions. The reaction rate coefficient kept the same form but error of terminal boron concentration could be introduced when relating irreversible reactions. Experimental data from published studies were used to develop a model that fit the existing data. At 1500 °C, our kinetic analysis suggested that refining silicon in a moist hydrogen atmosphere generates several primary volatile species, including SiO, SiH, HBO, and HBO{sub 2}. Using the experimental data and the kinetic analysis of volatile species, we developed a model that predicts a linear relationship between the reaction rate coefficient k and both the quadratic function of p(H{sub 2}O) and the square root of p(H{sub 2}). Moreover, the model predicted the partial pressure values for the predominant volatile species and the prediction was confirmed by the thermodynamic calculations, indicating the reliability of the model. We believe this model provides a foundation for designing a silicon refining process with a fast boron removal rate and low silicon loss.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1985

Dynamics of liquid sloshing in upright and inverted bladdered tanks

A system identification methodology was used to examine the dynamics of liquid sloshing in the upright and inverted bladdered hydrazine tanks of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite, (TDRS) and to evaluate the effects of bladder stiffness on the sloshing parameters. Mechanical models of the two systems were developed using the numerical values derived from static stability tests and from slosh frequency response tests of a full-size model tank fitted with a prototype bladder. For the upright tank (liquid below the bladder) a modified conventional pendulum was used. In the inverted tank (liquid above the bladder) where sloshing is unconventional due to the highly nonsymmetrical orientation of the liquid held by the bladder, a mechanical model using an inverted pendulum which is able to undergo small oscillations as well as large reorientations was necessary. Both thrusting and low-gravity conditions are considered.

Dodge, F. T.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

Assessing the Uncertainty in QUANTEC's Dose–Response Relation of Lung and Spinal Cord With a Bootstrap Analysis

Purpose: To apply a statistical bootstrap analysis to assess the uncertainty in the dose–response relation for the endpoints pneumonitis and myelopathy reported in the QUANTEC review. Methods and Materials: The bootstrap method assesses the uncertainty of the estimated population-based dose-response relation due to sample variability, which reflects the uncertainty due to limited numbers of patients in the studies. A large number of bootstrap replicates of the original incidence data were produced by random sampling with replacement. The analysis requires only the dose, the number of patients, and the number of occurrences of the studied endpoint, for each study. Two dose–response models, a Poisson-based model and the Lyman model, were fitted to each bootstrap replicate using maximum likelihood. Results: The bootstrap analysis generates a family of curves representing the range of plausible dose–response relations, and the 95% bootstrap confidence intervals give an estimated upper and lower toxicity risk. The curve families for the 2 dose–response models overlap for doses included in the studies at hand but diverge beyond that, with the Lyman model suggesting a steeper slope. The resulting distributions of the model parameters indicate correlation and non-Gaussian distribution. For both data sets, the likelihood of the observed data was higher for the Lyman model in >90% of the bootstrap replicates. Conclusions: The bootstrap method provides a statistical analysis of the uncertainty in the estimated dose–response relation for myelopathy and pneumonitis. It suggests likely values of model parameter values, their confidence intervals, and how they interrelate for each model. Finally, it can be used to evaluate to what extent data supports one model over another. For both data sets considered here, the Lyman model was preferred over the Poisson-based model.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic crushing of metal lattice metamaterials: Shock mode diagrams and transition to topology-independent compaction regime

Additively manufactured lattice metamaterials offer design versatility in strength and energy absorption and provide an additional degree of freedom through the selection of the lattice topology. Under quasistatic loading, the unit cell structure can strongly affect the stiffness, yield, and post-yield behavior, but whether and to what degree the effect of lattice topology persists into dynamic loading scenarios, up to the compaction shock regime, has not been established. LLNL’ s ALE3D hydrocode was used to perform a computational investigation of dynamic loading in multiple lattice types, including the gyroid, octet, Schwarz D, and rhombic dodecahedron, under impact velocities from 0.25 to 2.25 km/s. Shock Hugoniots for each lattice topology are generated and compared, suggesting that above a critical velocity, distinctions between architectures may not persevere and compacted lattices behave similarly. Here, to investigate the transition between topology-dependent quasistatic compression and the topology-independent regime above the critical velocity, a one-dimensional elastic-linear hardening plasticity-densified solid (E-LHP-DS) shock model for lattice materials was developed that relies upon confined compression to link the quasistatic and shock mechanics. Unlike similar works, the model does not assume rigid behavior prior to yield or locking behavior at densification, allowing a richer exploration of lattice mechanics. With only six parameters, the analytical model simultaneously fit quasistatic confined compression simulations for relative densities 0.1 $≤ \bar{ρ} ≤$ 0.9 and predicted dynamic compaction behavior to traverse several distinct shock modes, each defined by a critical impact speed (equivalently, critical stresses). Comparing the numerical results to the one-dimensional E-LHP-DS shock model predictions suggests that the topology-independence under strong shocks is linked to the onset of densification, which can be predicted based on quasistatic confined compression results.

Cellular material↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Modified Void Nucleation and Growth Model (MNAG) for Damage Evolution in BCC Ta

A void coalescence term was proposed as an addition to the original void nucleation and growth (NAG) model to accurately describe void evolution under dynamic loading. The new model, termed as modified void nucleation and growth model (MNAG model), incorporated analytic equations to explicitly account for the evolution of the void number density and the void volume fraction (damage) during void nucleation, growth, as well as the coalescence stage. The parameters in the MNAG model were fitted to molecular dynamics (MD) shock data for single-crystal and nanocrystalline Ta, and the corresponding nucleation, growth, and coalescence rates were extracted. The results suggested that void nucleation, growth, and coalescence rates were dependent on the orientation as well as grain size. Compared to other models, such as NAG, Cocks–Ashby, Tepla, and Tonks, which were only able to reproduce early or later stage damage evolution, the MNAG model was able to reproduce all stages associated with nucleation, growth, and coalescence. The MNAG model could provide the basis for hydrodynamic simulations to improve the fidelity of the damage nucleation and evolution in 3-D microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model eta(theta), where theta denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y = eta(theta) + c, where epsilon accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in eta(center dot), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model eta(center dot). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory.

Higdon, Dave↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Chapman-Layers Ionspheric Model for Mars

A numerical model (CLIMM) is developed that adopts functions of two Chapman layers to compute Mars ionospheric electron densities at given local solar zenith angle and height. Electron density profiles derived from Mars Global Survey (MGS)-to-Earth radio occultation measurements collected during 1998 through 2005 are used to fit the model. The present model does not include variations with solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation cycles and seasons, and may have increased errors at lower latitudes. A more sophisticated model taking into account these variations is being developed and will be available in the future.

solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of the High-Albedo NEA 3691 Bede

Characterization of NEAs provides important inputs to models for atmospheric entry, risk assessment and mitigation. Diameter is a key parameter because diameter translates to kinetic energy in atmospheric entry. Diameters can be derived from the absolute magnitude, H(PA=0deg), and from thermal modeling of observed IR fluxes. For both methods, the albedo (pv) is important - high pv surfaces have cooler temperatures, larger diameters for a given Hmag, and shallower phase curves (larger slope parameter G). Thermal model parameters are coupled, however, so that a higher thermal inertia also results in a cooler surface temperature. Multiple parameters contribute to constraining the diameter. Observations made at multiple observing geometries can contribute to understanding the relationships between and potentially breaking some of the degeneracies between parameters. We present data and analyses on NEA 3691 Bede with the aim of best constraining the diameter and pv from a combination of thermal modeling and light curve analyses. We employ our UKIRT+Michelle mid-IR photometric observations of 3691 Bede's thermal emission at 2 phase angles (27&43 deg 2015-03-19 & 04-13), in addition to WISE data (33deg 2010-05-27, Mainzer+2011). Observing geometries differ by solar phase angles and by moderate changes in heliocentric distance (e.g., further distances produce somewhat cooler surface temperatures). With the NEATM model and for a constant IR beaming parameter (eta=constant), there is a family of solutions for (diameter, pv, G, eta) where G is the slope parameter from the H-G Relation. NEATM models employing Pravec+2012's choice of G=0.43, produce D=1.8 km and pv≈0.4, given that G=0.43 is assumed from studies of main belt asteroids (Warner+2009). We present an analysis of the light curve of 3691 Bede to constrain G from observations. We also investigate fitting thermophysical models (TPM, Rozitis+11) to constrain the coupled parameters of thermal inertia (Gamma) and surface roughness, which in turn affect diameter and pv. Surface composition can be related to pv. This study focuses on understanding and characterizing the dependency of parameters with the aim of constraining diameter, pv and thermal inertia for 3691 Bede.

Wooden, Diane H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of the High-Albedo NEA 3691 Bede

magnitude↗

NASA NTRS1978

An energy-dependent map of the X-ray emission of the Perseus cluster

Results are discussed for X-ray scans of the Perseus cluster with the SAS 3 slat detectors. Counting rates in two broadband channels (1.5 to 5.5 keV and 5.5 to 15.5 keV) are compared as a function of the instrument scan angle measured from the center of emission, and it is found that the emission in the higher energy range is broader in extent. Tests for a systematic energy-dependent error in the background demonstrate that the discovered energy dependence of the Perseus cluster emission is valid. Iron line emission is determined by two methods, various models are fitted to the data, and the total cluster emission in the two energy ranges is computed. The iron line emission is determined to be 0.003 photon/sq cm per sec. It is concluded that the diffuse emission increases in the range from 1.5 to 15.5 keV within the bounds of a model involving a point source with a radius not exceeding about 3 arcmin plus a diffuse source.

Ulmer, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation Belt Electron Dynamics: Modeling Atmospheric Losses

The first year of work on this project has been completed. This report provides a summary of the progress made and the plan for the coming year. Also included with this report is a preprint of an article that was accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research and describes in detail most of the results from the first year of effort. The goal for the first year was to develop a radiation belt electron model for fitting to data from the SAMPEX and Polar satellites that would provide an empirical description of the electron losses into the upper atmosphere. This was largely accomplished according to the original plan (with one exception being that, for reasons described below, the inclusion of the loss cone electrons in the model was deferred). The main concerns at the start were to accurately represent the balance between pitch angle diffusion and eastward drift that determines the dominant features of the low altitude data, and then to accurately convert the model into simulated data based on the characteristics of the particular electron detectors. Considerable effort was devoted to achieving these ends. Once the model was providing accurate results it was applied to data sets selected from appropriate periods in 1997, 1998, and 1999. For each interval of -30 to 60 days, the model parameters were calculated daily, thus providing good short and long term temporal resolution, and for a range of radial locations from L = 2.7 to 3.9. .

Selesnick, R. S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Model for Li-S Cell with Shuttling-Induced Capacity Loss Approximation

Lithium sulfur (Li-S) batteries have the potential to outperform the current lithium ion batteries and transform the technology of the future. However, dissolution, diffusion, and shuttling of the dissolved polysulfides result in parasitic reactions and substantial capacity loss. To provide a better understanding of the shuttling process, a 1D porous electrode mathematical model has been developed in this paper. An approximation method is used to account for the shuttling-induced capacity loss by adding an extra source/sink term in the material balance equations for the species involved in the parasitic reactions. Shuttling constants used in the source terms can be determined by fitting the model predictions to the experimental measurements. Here, the results showed that by including the approximation method, the model was able to predict the active material loss and the continuous decrease of volume fractions of Li 2 S on the cathode surface. The model sheds light on the capacity loss mechanism occurring inside the cell as a result of the shuttling of polysulfides.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1994

Discovering operating modes in telemetry data from the Shuttle Reaction Control System

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and diagnosing faults in physical systems, for which suitable system models are not available. An architecture is proposed that integrates the on-line acquisition and exploitation of monitoring and diagnostic knowledge. The focus is on the component of the architecture that discovers classes of behaviors with similar characteristics by observing a system in operation. A characterization of behaviors based on best fitting approximation models is investigated. An experimental prototype has been implemented to test it. Preliminary results in diagnosing faults of the reaction control system of the space shuttle are presented. The merits and limitations of the approach are identified and directions for future work are set.

Manganaris, Stefanos↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metagenomic features of bioburden serve as outcome indicators in combat extremity wounds

Abstract Battlefield injury management requires specialized care, and wound infection is a frequent complication. Challenges related to characterizing relevant pathogens further complicates treatment. Applying metagenomics to wounds offers a comprehensive path toward assessing microbial genomic fingerprints and could indicate prognostic variables for future decision support tools. Wound specimens from combat-injured U.S. service members, obtained during surgical debridements before delayed wound closure, were subjected to whole metagenome analysis and targeted enrichment of antimicrobial resistance genes. Results did not indicate a singular, common microbial metagenomic profile for wound failure, instead reflecting a complex microenvironment with varying bioburden diversity across outcomes. Genus-level Pseudomonas detection was associated with wound failure at all surgeries. A logistic regression model was fit to the presence and absence of antimicrobial resistance classes to assess associations with nosocomial pathogens. A. baumannii detection was associated with detection of genomic signatures for resistance to trimethoprim, aminoglycosides, bacitracin, and polymyxin. Machine learning classifiers were applied to identify wound and microbial variables associated with outcome. Feature importance rankings averaged across models indicated the variables with the largest effects on predicting wound outcome, including an increase in P. putida sequence reads. These results describe the microbial genomic determinants in combat wound bioburden and demonstrate metagenomic investigation as a comprehensive tool for providing information toward aiding treatment of combat-related injuries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗