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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Shielding of Turbomachinery Broadband Noise from a Hybrid Wing Body Aircraft Configuration

The results of an experimental study on the effects of engine placement and vertical tail configuration on shielding of exhaust broadband noise radiation are presented. This study is part of the high fidelity aeroacoustic test of a 5.8% scale Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft configuration performed in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. Broadband Engine Noise Simulators (BENS) were used to determine insertion loss due to shielding by the HWB airframe of the broadband component of turbomachinery noise for different airframe configurations and flight conditions. Acoustics data were obtained from flyover and sideline microphones traversed to predefined streamwise stations. Noise measurements performed for different engine locations clearly show the noise benefit associated with positioning the engine nacelles further upstream on the HWB centerbody. Positioning the engine exhaust 2.5 nozzle diameters upstream (compared to 0.5 nozzle diameters downstream) of the HWB trailing edge was found of particular benefit in this study. Analysis of the shielding performance obtained with and without tunnel flow show that the effectiveness of the fuselage shielding of the exhaust noise, although still significant, is greatly reduced by the presence of the free stream flow compared to static conditions. This loss of shielding is due to the turbulence in the model near-wake/boundary layer flow. A comparison of shielding obtained with alternate vertical tail configurations shows limited differences in level; nevertheless, overall trends regarding the effect of cant angle and vertical location are revealed. Finally, it is shown that the vertical tails provide a clear shielding benefit towards the sideline while causing a slight increase in noise below the aircraft.

Hutcheson, Florence V.↗

Numerical Investigations of the Benchmark Supercritical Wing in Transonic Flow

This paper builds on the computational aeroelastic results published previously and generated in support of the second Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop for the NASA Benchmark Supercritical Wing (BSCW) configuration. The computational results are obtained using FUN3D, an unstructured grid Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solver developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The analysis results show the effects of the temporal and spatial resolution, the coupling scheme between the flow and the structural solvers, and the initial excitation conditions on the numerical flutter onset. Depending on the free stream condition and the angle of attack, the above parameters do affect the flutter onset. Two conditions are analyzed: Mach 0.74 with angle of attack 0 and Mach 0.85 with angle of attack 5. The results are presented in the form of the damping values computed from the wing pitch angle response as a function of the dynamic pressure or in the form of dynamic pressure as a function of the Mach number.

Chwalowski, Pawel↗

Magnetic Gears: The Key to Robust, Cost-Effective Hydropower Drivetrains

Based on previous demonstrated success at fabricating 5 and 10 kW scale magnetic gearbox (MGB) prototypes, Emrgy and its partners (the project team) proposed to design and construct a 100 kW scale MGB with a 30:1 gear ratio for the low-head hydro applications. The Statement of Project Objectives included tasks covering: 1) Market Applicability; 2) Technical Metrics; 3) Design (initial); 4) Electromagnetic (EM) Load and Structural Analysis; 5) Modal Analysis; 6) Sealing Design and 7) Final Design during Budget Period 1. Budget Period 2 included tasks covering: 1) Materials Procurement and Test Plan Development; 2) Assembly; and 3) Testing. The Market Applicability study (Task 1) led to a clear conclusion and recommendation toward “Low Head” technologies for maximum market share of both New Stream Reach development as well as powering Non-Powered Dams. The findings of this study also identified the opportunity for a larger scale magnetic gearbox-based drive train as a function of increased torque, as opposed to increased speed. The Technical Metrics Study (Task 2) concluded a horizontal orientation was preferred, examined potential loss mechanisms, concluded that a Halbach Array magnetic design was preferred, established a 30:1 gear ratio as optimal, and established a power rating of 100 kW as optimal. The subsequent initial and final detailed design process included electro-magnetic (EM) load and structural analysis (Task 4), a Modal analysis (for vibration) (Task 5), and a sealing design (Task 6) to assure water impermeability. The final design package (Task 7) included 729 individual parts, 117 unique part numbers, and 15 assemblies. In order to facilitate procurement, the full bill of materials was broken down into several sub-components: 1) custom magnetic parts; 2) custom machined parts; 3) custom casted parts; and 4) commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. The casted parts were fabricated by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) via a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with Emrgy and funded by the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO). The procurement effort (Task 8) ultimately covered three time periods based on challenges encountered in meeting the budgeted cost for the prototype. Following the first effort in the early stages of Budget Period 2 in 2017, a no-cost time extension was granted to seek alternative fabrication and procurement options. The project was re-booted in 2020 based on the new ORNL CRADA that would focus on five (5) of the more difficult and expensive parts using their advanced manufacturing expertise. Procurement efforts for the other custom machined parts resulted in quotations that still exceeded the budget by more than $\$$100k. This was, in part, also due to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic that caused both supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. As the project continued, pricing and availability degraded further. In Q2 FY’22, it was decided to not proceed with the fabrication of the prototype (Task 9) based on budgetary limitations. Outcomes included a full and detailed design of a 100 kW magnetic gearbox and associated indented bill of materials (BOM) and CAD drawings, a full assembly instruction manual with an associated BOM for materials necessary to support assembly, the fabrication of the double Halbach magnetic array for the rotor/stator system, fabrication of five (5) sand-casted/machined parts (via CRADA with ORNL) and an initial draft of a comprehensive testing plan. The most significant non-outcome was the actual fabrication and testing of the prototype gearbox based on budget limitations. Lessons learned included the need for an Application / Design / Cost trade analysis to better elucidate the cost potential of the MGB in the projected volumes anticipated for future demand. This would better establish the efficacy of the original cost target ($\$$0.80/Watt) and/or the need for reconsideration of designs and applications. Likewise, additional consideration of the prototype nature of the gearbox – single use, short lifetime, etc. - either as a separate exercise or in place of the design process completed, to reduce the cost of the demonstration prototype device. Additionally, project continuity was cited as a significant risk based on the loss of the primary design engineering firm after Budget Period 1. A design analysis exercise was conducted at the conclusion of the project to identify potential areas for cost reduction. One concept considered was the removal of the inner ring of magnets (with associated changes in the outer ring magnets) to enable a horizontal collapse of the design. It was estimated this could reduce cost by 10-25% without impacting performance.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Numerical analysis of electrostatic ion cyclotron instability in an electron-positron-ion plasma

This paper presents a theoretical study of the effects of positron density on the electrostatic ion cyclotron instability in an electron-positron-ion plasma using the kinetic theory approach. It is supposed that positrons and electrons can drift parallel to the magnetic field either in the same or the opposite directions. The dispersion relation for the electrostatic ion cyclotron waves in an electron-positron-ion plasma is derived, and the numerical results are investigated. It is found that an increase in positron concentration increases the critical drift velocity for excitation of the instability in both configurations. It is also found that as the positron concentration increases the growth rate of instability decreases. In addition, it is shown that at low velocities the maximum instability growth rate for the unidirectional case is higher than the counter-streaming case; however, after a certain velocity, the maximum growth rate in the counter-streaming case dominates that of the unidirectional case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Systematic search for tidal features around nearby galaxies: I. Enhanced SDSS imaging of the Local Volume

In hierarchical models of galaxy formation, stellar tidal streams are expected around most, if not all, galaxies. Although these features may provide useful diagnostics of the Λ CDM model, their observational properties remain poorly constrained because they are challenging to detect and interpret and have been studied in detail for only a sparse sampling of galaxy population. More quantitative, systematic approaches are required. We advocate statistical analysis of the counts and properties of such features in archival wide-field imaging surveys for a direct comparison against results from numerical simulations. We aim to study systematically the frequency of occurrence and other observational properties of tidal features around nearby galaxies. The sample we construct will act as a foundational dataset for statistical comparison with cosmological models of galaxy formation. Our approach is based on a visual classification of diffuse features around a volume-limited sample of nearby galaxies, using a post-processing of Sloan Digital Syk Survey (SDSS) imaging optimized for the detection of stellar structure with low surface brightness. At a limiting surface brightness of 28 mag arcsec –2 , 14% of the galaxies in our sample exhibit evidence of diffuse features likely to have arisen from minor merging events. Our technique recovers all previously known streams in our sample and yields a number of new candidates. Consistent with previous studies, coherent arc-like features and shells are the most common type of tidal structures found in this study. Here, we conclude that although some detections are ambiguous and could be corroborated or refuted with deeper imaging, our technique provides a reliable foundation for the statistical analysis of diffuse circumgalactic features in wide-area imaging surveys, and for the identification of targets for follow-up studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bypass transition in compressible boundary layers

Transition to turbulence in aerospace applications usually occurs in a strongly disturbed environment. For instance, the effects of free-stream turbulence, roughness and obstacles in the boundary layer strongly influence transition. Proper understanding of the mechanisms leading to transition is crucial in the design of aircraft wings and gas turbine blades, because lift, drag and heat transfer strongly depend on the state of the boundary layer, laminar or turbulent. Unfortunately, most of the transition research, both theoretical and experimental, has focused on natural transition. Many practical flows, however, defy any theoretical analysis and are extremely difficult to measure. Morkovin introduced in his review paper the concept of bypass transition as those forms of transition which bypass the known mechanisms of linear and non-linear transition theories and are currently not understood by experiments. In an effort to better understand the mechanisms leading to transition in a disturbed environment, experiments are conducted studying simpler cases, viz. the effects of free stream turbulence on transition on a flat plate. It turns out that these experiments are very difficult to conduct, because generation of free stream turbulence with sufficiently high fluctuation levels and reasonable homogeneity is non trivial. For a discussion see Morkovin. Serious problems also appear due to the fact that at high Reynolds numbers the boundary layers are very thin, especially in the nose region of the plate where the transition occurs, which makes the use of very small probes necessary. The effects of free-stream turbulence on transition are the subject of this research and are especially important in a gas turbine environment, where turbulence intensities are measured between 5 and 20 percent, Wang et al. Due to the fact that the Reynolds number for turbine blades is considerably lower than for aircraft wings, generally a larger portion of the blade will be in a laminar transitional state. The effects of large free stream turbulence in compressible boundary layers at Mach numbers are examined both in the subsonic and transonic regime using direct numerical simulations. The flow is computed over a flat plate and curved surface. while many applications operate in the transonic regime. Due the nature of their numerical scheme, a non-conservation formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations, it is a non-trivial extension to compute flow fields in the transonic regime. This project aims at better understanding the effects of large free-stream turbulence in compressible boundary layers at mach number both in the subsonic and transonic regime using direct numerical simulations. The present project aims at computing the flow over a flat plate and curved surface. This research will provide data which can be used to clarify mechanisms leading to transition in an environment with high free stream turbulence. This information is useful for the development of turbulence models, which are of great importance for CFD applications, and are currently unreliable for more complex flows, such as transitional flows.

Vandervegt, J. J.↗

Flood Analysis of the Thomas Flood in California Using NASA Data in a GIS

In December 2017, the Thomas Fire burned areas in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties in California, consuming 281,893 acres (440 square miles), and becoming the largest wildfire in California history. On January 8, 2018, a winter storm made landfall in Santa Barbara County, releasing more than 5 inches of rain onto the same scarred area, causing San Ysidro and Montecito Creeks to overflow and leading to devastating flash flooding and debris flows by January 9, 2018. Several areas that were not typically prone to flooding were at risk due to the higher than usual flows in the nearby streams and creeks. The unprecedented flooding killed at least 20 people and left several others missing. NASA's Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) manages Earth Observation satellites and the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), where the data is stored and processed. This poster presents the use of satellite data from NASA's inventory that have the potential for use in identification and analysis of forest fire risk and subsequent after-effects within a geographic information system (GIS).

science↗

Synthesis and analysis of separation networks for the recovery of intracellular chemicals generated from microbial-based conversions

Background. Bioseparations can contribute to more than 70% in the total production cost of a bio-based chemical, and if the desired chemical is localized intracellularly, there can be additional challenges associated with its recovery. Based on the properties of the desired chemical and other components in the stream, there can be multiple feasible options for product recovery. These options are composed of several alternative technologies, performing similar tasks. The suitability of a technology for a particular chemical depends on (1) its performance parameters, such as separation efficiency; (2) cost or amount of added separating agent; (3) properties of the bioreactor effluent (e.g., biomass titer, product content); and (4) final product specifications. Our goal is to first synthesize alternative separation options and then analyze how technology selection affects the overall process economics. To achieve this, we propose an optimization-based framework that helps in identifying the critical technologies and parameters. Results. We study the separation networks for two representative classes of chemicals based on their properties. The separation network is divided into three stages: cell and product isolation (stage I), product concentration (II), and product purification and refining (III). Each stage exploits differences in specific product properties for achieving the desired product quality. The cost contribution analysis for the two cases (intracellular insoluble and intracellular soluble) reveals that stage I is the key cost contributor (>70% of the overall cost). Further analysis suggests that changes in input conditions and technology performance parameters lead to new designs primarily in stage I. Conclusions. The proposed framework provides significant insights for technology selection and assists in making informed decisions regarding technologies that should be used in combination for a given set of stream/product properties and final output specifications. Additionally, the parametric sensitivity provides an opportunity to make crucial design and selection decisions in a comprehensive and rational manner. This will prove valuable in the selection of chemicals to be produced using bioconversions (bioproducts) as well as in creating better bioseparation flow sheets for detailed economic assessment and process implementation on the commercial scale.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

ISS Expeditions 16 through 20: Chemical Analysis Results for Potable Water

During the 2-year span from Expedition 16 through Expedition 20, the chemical quality of the potable water onboard the International Space Station (ISS) was verified safe for crew consumption through the return and chemical analysis of archival water samples by the Water and Food Analytical Laboratory (WAFAL) at Johnson Space Center (JSC). Reclaimed cabin humidity condensate and Russian ground-supplied water were the principal sources of potable water for Expeditions 16 through 18. During Expedition 18 the U.S. water processor assembly was delivered, installed, and tested during a 90-day checkout period. Beginning with Expedition 19, U.S. potable water recovered from a combined waste stream of humidity condensate and pretreated urine was also available for ISS crew use. A total of 74 potable water samples were collected using U.S. sampling hardware during Expeditions 16 through 20 and returned on both Shuttle and Soyuz vehicles. The results of JSC chemical analyses of these ISS potable water samples are presented in this paper. Eight potable water samples collected in flight with Russian hardware were also received for analysis, as well as 5 preflight samples of Rodnik potable water delivered to ISS on Russian Progress vehicles 28 to 34. Analytical results for these additional potable water samples are also reported and discussed.

Straub, John E., II↗

Precision Cleaning Verification of Fluid Components by Air/Water Impingement and Total Carbon Analysis

NASA personnel at Kennedy Space Center's Material Science Laboratory have developed new environmentally sound precision cleaning and verification techniques for systems and components found at the center. This technology is required to replace existing methods traditionally employing CFC-113. The new patent-pending technique of precision cleaning verification is for large components of cryogenic fluid systems. These are stainless steel, sand cast valve bodies with internal surface areas ranging from 0.2 to 0.9 m(exp 2). Extrapolation of this technique to components of even larger sizes (by orders of magnitude) is planned. Currently, the verification process is completely manual. In the new technique, a high velocity, low volume water stream impacts the part to be verified. This process is referred to as Breathing Air/Water Impingement and forms the basis for the Impingement Verification System (IVS). The system is unique in that a gas stream is used to accelerate the water droplets to high speeds. Water is injected into the gas stream in a small, continuous amount. The air/water mixture is then passed through a converging-diverging nozzle where the gas is accelerated to supersonic velocities. These droplets impart sufficient energy to the precision cleaned surface to place non-volatile residue (NVR) contaminants into suspension in the water. The sample water is collected and its NVR level is determined by total organic carbon (TOC) analysis at 880 C. The TOC, in ppm carbon, is used to establish the NVR level. A correlation between the present gravimetric CFC-113 NVR and the IVS NVR is found from experimental sensitivity factors measured for various contaminants. The sensitivity has the units of ppm of carbon per mg-ft(exp 2) of contaminant. In this paper, the equipment is described and data are presented showing the development of the sensitivity factors from a test set including four NVR's impinged from witness plates of 0.05 to 0.75 m(exp 2).

Barile, Ronald G.↗

Calculation of Transfer Functions of Multilayer Biotissues in the Problems of Correction of Their Fluorescence Spectra

A method for rapid calculation of a flux of stimulated fluorescence of a multilayer optically dense medium with inhomogeneous distribution of the fluorophore has been developed. The light field in the medium at the excitation wavelength of fluorescence is represented by a superposition of incident collimated, incident diffuse, and reflected diffuse fluxes. A two-stream approximation is used to describe the light field in the medium at the wavelength of emission of the fluorescence. Fluxes in adjacent elementary layers of the medium and on its surface are connected by simple matrix operators that are obtained using a combination of engineering approaches of radiation-transfer theory and single-scattering approximation. The calculations of fluorescence fluxes of a four-layer biotissue that are excited and recorded at 400–800 nm are compared with their Monte Carlo simulation with a discrepancy of 1%. The effect of the propagation medium on the fluorescence spectra of 5-ALA-induced protoporphyrin IX that are recorded from human skin was studied, and a technique for their correction that is based on measurements and quantitative analysis of the diffuse reflectance spectrum of skin was proposed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Developing ML/AI Methods for High-Throughput Characterization of Multiple-Sensor Streams of Tokamak Dynamics for High-Speed Control (Final Report)

This project evaluated and developed new mathematical and algorithmic techniques capable of handling (in real-time) the growing amounts of data generated by modern fusion research. While existing numerical linear algebra (NLA) methods provide the backbone to classical data analysis and algorithms, these methods fundamentally do not port to distributed architectures nor do they allow low-latency data reduction for control. Motivated by the needs for modern fusion reactors, this project explored and implemented new numerical methods to characterize plasma dynamics, respond in real-time to discharge evolution, and to process massive-scale data accurately and rapidly more fully. This project links expertise in multiple-sensor diagnostics of tokamak plasma dynamics from Columbia University’s Plasma Physics Laboratory with expertise in massive-scale data reduction and extreme data control algorithms at Columbia University’s Data Science Institute. This interdisciplinary project (i) applied machine learning methods, (ii) implemented a properly-trained neural-network for very fast processing of high-speed plasma videography, and (ii) developed the applied mathematical methods, based on randomized-NLA (rNLA) routines, for data analysis, reduction, and real-time control. The Columbia University High Beta Tokamak-Extended Pulse (HBT-EP) facility provided data to test new algorithms and partnership with Columbia University's Data Sciences Institute evaluated the broader use of new algorithms for many challenging control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A preliminary component analysis of a Mach-7 hypersonic vehicle

As research continues in the development of an aircraft capable of travelling at hypersonic flight velocities, both the propulsion and thermal management systems stand out as areas requiring innovative technological breakthroughs. For propulsion, the difficulty involves efficiently compressing and combusting hydrogen in a supersonic stream, i.e., developing a viable scramjet with thermal management, the challenge lies in development of materials and active cooling systems capable of handling the enormous heat fluxes associated with hypersonic flight. This paper focuses on these problems and presents component designs for both an active cooling system and an all-external-compression scramjet. These systems are mated to a Mach-6 passenger cruise aircraft whose aerodynamic configuration was derived from an optimization of NASA windtunnel test results. The following outlines the development of the configuration and then focuses in on the design of the two component systems.

Source record↗

A Design of Experiments Investigation of Offset Streams for Supersonic Jet Noise Reduction

An experimental investigation into the noise characteristics of a dual-stream jet with four airfoils inserted in the fan nozzle was conducted. The intent of the airfoils was to deflect the fan stream relative to the core stream and, therefore, impact the development of the secondary potential core and noise radiated in the peak jet-noise direction. The experiments used a full-factorial Design of Experiments (DoE) approach to identify parameters and parameter interactions impacting noise radiation at two azimuthal microphone array locations, one of which represented a sideline viewing angle. The parameters studied included airfoil angle-of-attack, airfoil azimuthal location within the fan nozzle, and airfoil axial location relative to the fan-nozzle trailing edge. Jet conditions included subsonic and supersonic fan-stream Mach numbers. Heated jets conditions were simulated with a mixture of helium and air to replicate the exhaust velocity and density of the hot jets. The introduction of the airfoils was shown to impact noise radiated at polar angles in peak-jet noise direction and to have no impact on noise radiated at small and broadside polar angles and to have no impact on broadband-shock-associated noise. The DoE analysis showed the main effects impacting noise radiation at sideline-azimuthal-viewing angles included airfoil azimuthal angle for the airfoils on the lower side of the jet near the sideline array and airfoil trailing edge distance (with airfoils located at the nozzle trailing edge produced the lowest sound pressure levels). For an array located directly beneath the jet (and on the side of the jet from which the fan stream was deflected), the main effects impacting noise radiation included airfoil angle-of-attack and airfoil azimuthal angle for the airfoils located on the observation side of the jet as well and trailing edge distance. Interaction terms between multiple configuration parameters were shown to have significant impact on the radiated noise. The models were shown to adequately describe the sound-pressure levels obtained for a configuration in the center of the design space indicating the models can be used to navigate the design space.

Jet Noise↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Glass waste form options for rare-earth fission products from electrochemical reprocessing

Herein, we describe a first-of-a-kind study where lead tellurite (Pb-Te-O), iron phosphate (Fe-P-O), and lanthanide aluminoborosilicate (LABS) waste forms are evaluated for treating and/or immobilizing waste streams containing high rare-earth (RE) content, e.g., RECl 3 , REOCl, and/or REO x . Results from this study show that NdOCl can be immobilized in 78TeO 2 -22PbO glass at up to 10 mass%. Higher loadings of up to 15 mass% were demonstrated, but with a small fraction of crystallization. Two Fe-P-O glasses produced from either RECl 3 (RE = Nd,Ce) or NdOCl revealed products with very similar properties, demonstrating that the phosphate process can be used to chlorinate a variety of RE-containing waste streams. Two LABS glasses produced from Nd 2 O 3 or NdOCl showed similar properties, but the LABS-NdOCl glass did have some residual Cl present. Characterization is provided for all waste forms including chemical analysis, X-ray diffraction, and bulk density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗