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Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Luthcke, Scott↗

Improved Understanding of Coupled Water and Carbon Cycle Processes through Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area(s): This white paper addresses how explainable machine learning (ML) algorithms can improve insights gained from complex data (Focal Area 3). We will also address how ML approaches related to sensor compression and low energy AI hardware can be used for efficient data acquisition (Focal Area 1). Science Challenge: We will focus on the coupled water cycle and carbon cycle processes in terrestrial ecosystems and terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Thus, our approaches will be centered around several data-model integration challenges indicated in EESD strategic plans for two science focus areas: Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Hydrobiogeochemistry. We can use AI to correct systematic model errors due to biases in either data or model structure/processes. Error patterns in model predictions usually vary by region, model, season etc. But there are systematic patterns in them. e.g., soil moisture tends to be overestimated in the arid western continental United States underestimated in wetter eastern USA; some land surface models tend to underestimate moisture in wet seasons and overestimate in dry seasons. Moreover, the consequences of extreme events (e.g., drought, extreme flooding, storm surges associated with tropical storms, hurricanes) on carbon cycle processes are not well represented in ecosystem and Earth system models. Redox-sensitive processes (e.g., rapid oxidation/reduction of iron and other redox-sensitive elements in soil microsites subjected to fluctuated hydrology) in terrestrial-aquatic interfaces further challenge model predictions of hot-spots (and hot-moments) due to poor understanding of underlying mechanisms. Thus, AI/ML approaches can be used to learn patterns in the data and model errors and use them to build model equations and correct process-based model errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-177: A Computational Approach for Determination of Anisotropic PTV Margins Based On Statistical Shape Analysis for Prostate Cancer Radiotherapy

Purpose: Our aim of this study was to propose a computational approach for determination of anisotropic planning target volume (PTV) margins based on statistical shape analysis with taking into account time variations of clinical target volume (CTV) shapes for the prostate cancer radiation treatment planning (RTP). Methods: Systematic and random setup errors were measured using orthogonal projection and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images for data of 20 patients, who underwent the intensity modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer. The low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk CTVs were defined as only a prostate, a prostate plus proximal 1-cm seminal vesicles, and a prostate plus proximal 2-cm seminal vesicles, respectively. All CTV regions were registered with a reference CTV region with a median volume to remove the effect of the setup errors, and converted to a point distribution models. The systematic and random errors for translations of CTV regions were automatically evaluated by analyzing the movements of centroids of CTV regions. The random and systematic errors for shape variations of CTV regions were obtained from covariance matrices based on point distributions for the CTV contours on CBCT images of 72 fractions of 10 patients. Anisotropic PTV margins for 6 directions (right, left, anterior, posterior, superior and inferior) were derived by using Yoda’s PTV margin model. Results: PTV margins with and without shape variations were 5.75 to 8.03 mm and 5.23 to 7.67 mm for low-risk group, 5.87 to 8.33 mm and 5.23 to 7.67 mm for intermediate-risk group, and 5.88 to 8.25 mm and 5.29 to 7.82 mm for highrisk group, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed computational approach could be feasible for determination of the anisotropic PTV margins with taking into account CTV shape variations for the RTP.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TH-CD-207A-11: Sensitivity Analysis of Action Limits for Real-Time EPID-Based Delivery Verification System Using Artificial Clinical Relevant Error Simulations

Purpose: A real-time patient treatment delivery verification system using EPID (Watchdog) has been developed as an advanced patient safety tool. In a pilot study data was acquired for 119 prostate and head and neck (HN) IMRT patient deliveries to generate body-site specific action limits using statistical process control. The purpose of this study is to determine the sensitivity of Watchdog to detect clinically significant errors during treatment delivery. Methods: Watchdog utilizes a physics-based model to generate a series of predicted transit cine EPID images as a reference data set, and compares these in real-time to measured transit cine-EPID images acquired during treatment using chi comparison (4%, 4mm criteria) after the initial 2s of treatment to allow for dose ramp-up. Four study cases were used; dosimetric (monitor unit) errors in prostate (7 fields) and HN (9 fields) IMRT treatments of (5%, 7%, 10%) and positioning (systematic displacement) errors in the same treatments of (5mm, 7mm, 10mm). These errors were introduced by modifying the patient CT scan and re-calculating the predicted EPID data set. The error embedded predicted EPID data sets were compared to the measured EPID data acquired during patient treatment. The treatment delivery percentage (measured from 2s) where Watchdog detected the error was determined. Results: Watchdog detected all simulated errors for all fields during delivery. The dosimetric errors were detected at average treatment delivery percentage of (4%, 0%, 0%) and (7%, 0%, 0%) for prostate and HN respectively. For patient positional errors, the average treatment delivery percentage was (52%, 43%, 25%) and (39%, 16%, 6%). Conclusion: These results suggest that Watchdog can detect significant dosimetric and positioning errors in prostate and HN IMRT treatments in real-time allowing for treatment interruption. Displacements of the patient require longer to detect however incorrect body site or very large geographic misses will be detected rapidly.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analytic Perturbation Method for Estimating Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Observations

An analytic perturbation method is introduced for estimating the lightning ground flash fraction in a set of N lightning flashes observed by a satellite lightning mapper. The value of N is large, typically in the thousands, and the observations consist of the maximum optical group area produced by each flash. The method is tested using simulated observations that are based on Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data. National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) data is used to determine the flash‐type (ground or cloud) of the satellite-observed flashes, and provides the ground flash fraction truth for the simulation runs. It is found that the mean ground flash fraction retrieval errors are below 0.04 across the full range 0‐1 under certain simulation conditions. In general, it is demonstrated that the retrieval errors depend on many factors (i.e., the number, N, of satellite observations, the magnitude of random and systematic measurement errors, and the number of samples used to form certain climate distributions employed in the model).

Koshak, William↗

Implication of spot position error on plan quality and patient safety in pencil-beam-scanning proton therapy

Purpose: To quantitatively and systematically assess dosimetric effects induced by spot positioning error as a function of spot spacing (SS) on intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plan quality and to facilitate evaluation of safety tolerance limits on spot position. Methods: Spot position errors (PE) ranging from 1 to 2 mm were simulated. Simple plans were created on a water phantom, and IMPT plans were calculated on two pediatric patients with a brain tumor of 28 and 3 cc, respectively, using a commercial planning system. For the phantom, a uniform dose was delivered to targets located at different depths from 10 to 20 cm with various field sizes from 2{sup 2} to 15{sup 2} cm{sup 2}. Two nominal spot sizes, 4.0 and 6.6 mm of 1 σ in water at isocenter, were used for treatment planning. The SS ranged from 0.5 σ to 1.5 σ, which is 2–6 mm for the small spot size and 3.3–9.9 mm for the large spot size. Various perturbation scenarios of a single spot error and systematic and random multiple spot errors were studied. To quantify the dosimetric effects, percent dose error (PDE) depth profiles and the value of percent dose error at the maximum dose difference (PDE [ΔDmax]) were used for evaluation. Results: A pair of hot and cold spots was created per spot shift. PDE[ΔDmax] is found to be a complex function of PE, SS, spot size, depth, and global spot distribution that can be well defined in simple models. For volumetric targets, the PDE [ΔDmax] is not noticeably affected by the change of field size or target volume within the studied ranges. In general, reducing SS decreased the dose error. For the facility studied, given a single spot error with a PE of 1.2 mm and for both spot sizes, a SS of 1σ resulted in a 2% maximum dose error; a SS larger than 1.25 σ substantially increased the dose error and its sensitivity to PE. A similar trend was observed in multiple spot errors (both systematic and random errors). Systematic PE can lead to noticeable hot spots along the field edges, which may be near critical structures. However, random PE showed minimal dose error. Conclusions: Dose error dependence for PE was quantitatively and systematically characterized and an analytic tool was built to simulate systematic and random errors for patient-specific IMPT. This information facilitates the determination of facility specific spot position error thresholds.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Consistent evaluation of GOSAT, SCIAMACHY, carbontracker, and MACC through comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO 2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO 2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO 2 data record. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO 2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry air mole fraction (X CO 2 ) for GOSAT (ACOS b3.5) and SCIAMACHY (BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO 2 mole fraction fields and the MACC CO 2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to TCCON observations (GGG2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9 ppm, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 ppm versus TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single target errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. When satellite data are averaged and interpreted according to error 2 = a 2 + b 2 / n (where n are the number of observations averaged, a are the systematic (correlated) errors, and b are the random (uncorrelated) errors), we find that the correlated error term a = 0.6 ppm and the uncorrelated error term b = 1.7 ppm for GOSAT and a = 1.0 ppm, b = 1.4 ppm for SCIAMACHY regional averages. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of ~ 0.3 ppm, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 ppm at many stations. Using fitting software, we find that GOSAT underpredicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46–53° N. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), CT2013b underestimates the seasonal cycle amplitude. Biases are calculated for 3-month intervals and indicate the months that contribute to the observed amplitude differences. The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a dataset or model lags another dataset in time. We calculate this at a subset of stations where there is adequate satellite data, and find that the GOSAT retrieved phase improves substantially over the prior and the SCIAMACHY retrieved phase improves substantially for 2 of 7 sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder125 (CT2013b), Darwin (MACC), and Izana (+ 10 days, CT2013b), as for Bremen and Four Corners, which are highly influenced by local effects. We compare the variability within one day between TCCON and models in JJA; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10–100 % the variability of TCCON at different stations (except Bremen and Four Corners which have no variability compared to TCCON) and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g. the SH for models and 45–67° N for GOSAT

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation, Realization and an Effective Solver of Two-Equation Turbulence Models

Currently, when the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are solved using turbulence modeling, most often the one-equation model of Spalart and Allmaras is used. Then, it is only necessary to solve the RANS equations in conjunction with a single transport equation for modeling turbulence. For this model, considerable assessment and analysis has been performed, allowing the possibility of a reliable solution method for an eddy viscosity required to compute the Reynolds stresses in the RANS equations. Such evaluation along with analysis has not been achieved to realize similar performance with two-equation models of the k-w type. The primary objective of this paper is to present and discuss the components of an effective numerical algorithm for solving the RANS equations and the two transport equations of k-w type turbulence models. All the important details of the turbulence model as actually implemented are given, which is sometimes not done in various papers considering such modeling. The viability and effectiveness of this solution algorithm are demonstrated by solving both two-dimensional and three-dimensional aerodynamic flows. In all applications, a linear rate of convergence without oscillations or other evidence of unstable behavior is observed. This behavior is also particularly true when the proposed algorithm is applied to systematically renewed mesh sequences, which is generally not observed with algorithms solving more than one transport equation. Thus, numerical integration errors are systematically reduced, allowing for a significantly more reliable assessment of the effectiveness of the turbulence model. Additionally, in this paper, analysis of the solution algorithm, including linear stability, is also performed for a particular flow problem.

Turbulence↗

SU-C-BRE-05: PTV Margin Determination Based On Tumor Radiobiological Characteristics and Geometric Uncertainties Derived From Daily Cone- Beam CT Images

Purpose: To determine required PTV margins for ≤1% loss in mean population TCP using systematic (Σ) and random (σ) errors calculated from daily cone-beam CT (CBCT) images of head and neck patients. Methods: Daily CBCT images were acquired for 50 head and neck patients. The CBCT image sets acquired at each fraction were registered with planning CT to obtain positional errors for each patient for each fraction. Systematic and random errors were calculated from data collected for 50 patients as described in IPEM On Target report. CTV delineation uncertainty of 2mm is added quadratically to systematic error. Assuming a spherical target volume, the dose in each voxel of target volume is summed for each fraction in the treatment by shifting the dose grid to calculate mean population TCP inclusive of geometric uncertainties using a Monte Carlo method. These simulations were repeated for the set of Σ and σ in each axis for different PTV margins and drop in TCP for each margin are obtained. In order to study the effect of dose-response curve on PTV margins, two different σα of 0.048 Gy-1 and 0.218 Gy-1 representing steep and shallow dose-response curves are studied. Σ were 2.5, 2.5, 2.1 mm and σ were 0.3, 0.3 0.2 mm respectively in x, y and z axis respectively. Results: PTV margins based on tumor radiobiological characteristics are 4.8, 4.8 and 4 mm in x, y and z axis assuming 25 treatment fractions for σα 0.048 Gy-1 (steep) and 4.2,4.2 and 2.2 for σα of 0.218 Gy-1 (shallow). While the TCP-based margins did not differ much in x and y axis, it is considerably smaller in z axis for shallow DRC. Conclusion: TCP based margins are substantially smaller than physical dose-based margin recipes. This study also demonstrates the importance of considering tumor radiobiological characteristics while deriving margins.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Phase-referenced VLBI observations of weak radio sources - Milliarcsecond position of Algol

The Fourier inversion of all the delay/rate referenced visibilities of Algol was used to form a 'dirty' map which has dramatically improved VLBI array sensitivity. The Algol system, in a very low state of activity with a total flux density of only 3 mJy, was observed alternatively with the reference source 0309 + 411, about 1 deg away, throughout the 7 hr VLBI experiment. By combining all the individual VLBI observations, the resulting coherent integration time for Algol is 4.2 hr and the corresponding SNR is 12. Internal consistency checks and an analysis of possible systematic astrometric errors indicate that the accuracy of the relative VLBI position of Algol is + or - 0.0005 arcsec in both coordinates and that unknown systematic effects are presently limiting this astrometric measurement.

Lestrade, J.-F.↗

Quality assurance for online adapted treatment plans: Benchmarking and delivery monitoring simulation

Purpose: An important challenge facing online adaptive radiation therapy is the development of feasible and efficient quality assurance (QA). This project aimed to validate the deliverability of online adapted plans and develop a proof-of-concept online delivery monitoring system for online adaptive radiation therapy QA. Methods: The first part of this project benchmarked automatically online adapted prostate treatment plans using traditional portal dosimetry IMRT QA. The portal dosimetry QA results of online adapted plans were compared to original (unadapted) plans as well as randomly selected prostate IMRT plans from our clinic. In the second part, an online delivery monitoring system was designed and validated via a simulated treatment with intentional multileaf collimator (MLC) errors. This system was based on inputs from the dynamic machine information (DMI), which continuously reports actual MLC positions and machine monitor units (MUs) at intervals of 50 ms or less during delivery. Based on the DMI, the system performed two levels of monitoring/verification during the delivery: (1) dynamic monitoring of cumulative fluence errors resulting from leaf position deviations and visualization using fluence error maps (FEMs); and (2) verification of MLC positions against the treatment plan for potential errors in MLC motion and data transfer at each control point. Validation of the online delivery monitoring system was performed by introducing intentional systematic MLC errors (ranging from 0.5 to 2 mm) to the DMI files for both leaf banks. These DMI files were analyzed by the proposed system to evaluate the system’s performance in quantifying errors and revealing the source of errors, as well as to understand patterns in the FEMs. In addition, FEMs from 210 actual prostate IMRT beams were analyzed using the proposed system to further validate its ability to catch and identify errors, as well as establish error magnitude baselines for prostate IMRT delivery. Results: Online adapted plans were found to have similar delivery accuracy in comparison to clinical IMRT plans when validated with portal dosimetry IMRT QA. FEMs for the simulated deliveries with intentional MLC errors exhibited distinct patterns for different MLC error magnitudes and directions, indicating that the proposed delivery monitoring system is highly specific in detecting the source of errors. Implementing the proposed QA system for online adapted plans revealed excellent delivery accuracy: over 99% of leaf position differences were within 0.5 mm, and >99% of pixels in the FEMs had fluence errors within 0.5 MU. Patterns present in the FEMs and MLC control point analysis for actual patient cases agreed with the error pattern analysis results, further validating the system’s ability to reveal and differentiate MLC deviations. Calculation of the fluence map based on the DMI was performed within 2 ms after receiving each DMI input. Conclusions: The proposed online delivery monitoring system requires minimal additional resources and time commitment to the current clinical workflow while still maintaining high sensitivity to leaf position errors and specificity to error types. The presented online delivery monitoring system therefore represents a promising QA system candidate for online adaptive radiation therapy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

Milky Way mass with K giants and BHB stars using LAMOST, SDSS/SEGUE, and Gaia : 3D spherical Jeans equation and tracer mass estimator

ABSTRACT We measure the enclosed Milky Way mass profile to Galactocentric distances of ∼70 and ∼50 kpc using the smooth, diffuse stellar halo samples of Bird et al. The samples are Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) and Sloan Digital Sky Survey/Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SDSS/SEGUE) K giants (KG) and SDSS/SEGUE blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars with accurate metallicities. The 3D kinematics are available through LAMOST and SDSS/SEGUE distances and radial velocities and Gaia DR2 proper motions. Two methods are used to estimate the enclosed mass: 3D spherical Jeans equation and Evans et al. tracer mass estimator (TME). We remove substructure via the Xue et al. method based on integrals of motion. We evaluate the uncertainties on our estimates due to random sampling noise, systematic distance errors, the adopted density profile, and non-virialization and non-spherical effects of the halo. The tracer density profile remains a limiting systematic in our mass estimates, although within these limits we find reasonable agreement across the different samples and the methods applied. Out to ∼70 and ∼50 kpc, the Jeans method yields total enclosed masses of 4.3 ± 0.95 (random) ±0.6 (systematic) × 1011 M⊙ and 4.1 ± 1.2 (random) ±0.6 (systematic) × 1011 M⊙ for the KG and BHB stars, respectively. For the KG and BHB samples, we find a dark matter virial mass of $M_{200}=0.55^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ (random) ±0.083 (systematic) × 1012 M⊙ and $M_{200}=1.00^{+0.67}_{-0.33}$ (random) ±0.15 (systematic) × 1012 M⊙, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗

Study of |Vtd/Vts| Using a Sum of Exclusive B → X Gamma Final States Reconstructed With the BaBar Detector

Experimental data collected with the BABAR detector consisting of 470.9 ± 2.8 million BB events are used to measure the sum of seven exclusive B → X d(s) γ transitions, where X d(s) is any non-strange (strange) charmless hadronic state. For each transition avour, measurements are made in the hadronic mass ranges 0.5 ≤ mX < 1.0 GeV=c 2 and 1.0 ≤ m X ≤ 2.0 GeV=c 2 . These are extrapolated and combined in a model-dependent way to obtain the ratio of the total branching fractions, B(B→ X dγ )=B(B→ X sγ ) = 0.0456 ± 0.0110 ± 0.0097 where the first error is statistical and the second error is systematic. This is interpreted as a measurement of the ratio of CKM matrix elements |V td /V ts | = 0.211 ± 0.023 ± 0.022 ± 0.001 where the final error is due to theoretical uncertainty.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Application of an optimal filter for inflatable sphere data processing

The improvement in the sphere data processing, concerning the signal to noise ratio, is discussed. Frequency analysis of the radar data is effectuated. It reveals a specific frequency component in the radar angle error, which may originate from the tracking radar mechanism itself. An optimal (Wiener) filter is applied to the radar data in order to suppress the systematic angular error components selectively. Using this technique, a significant improvement in the signal to noise ratio is achieved. The resolution of sphere measurements, previously limited by the length of the polynomial filter in the sphere data processing algorithm, is improved.

Lee, H. S.↗