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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Dimensional Control over Metal Halide Perovskite Crystallization Guided by Active Learning

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) derivatives, a promising class of optoelectronic materials, have been synthesized with a range of dimensionalities that govern their optoelectronic properties and determine their applications. We demonstrate a data-driven approach combining active learning and high-throughput experimentation to discover, control, and understand the formation of phases with different dimensionalities in the morpholinium (morph) lead iodide system. Using a robot-assisted workflow, we synthesized and characterized two novel MHP derivatives that have distinct optical properties: a one-dimensional (1D) morphPbI 3 phase ([C 4 H 10 NO][PbI 3 ]) and a two-dimensional (2D) (morph) 2 PbI 4 phase ([C 4 H 10 NO] 2 [PbI 4 ]). To efficiently acquire the data needed to construct a machine learning (ML) model of the reaction conditions where the 1D and 2D phases are formed, data acquisition was guided by a diverse-mini-batch-sampling active learning algorithm, using prediction confidence as a stopping criterion. Querying the ML model uncovered the reaction parameters that have the most significant effects on dimensionality control. Based on these insights, we discuss possible reaction schemes that may selectively promote the formation of morph-Pb-I phases with different dimensionalities. The data-driven approach presented here, including the use of additives to manipulate dimensionality, will be valuable for controlling the crystallization of a range of materials over large reaction-composition spaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems with Inverter-Based Resources

In this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, the gray-box modeling framework is constructed by encoding prior physical knowledge of the system into a whitebox model and then embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model. Especially, the white-box modeling component is constructed alongside the equivalent network model simplified with Kron reduction. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our graybox modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

Zhang, Junhui↗
DOE OSTI2017

Self-consistent clustering analysis: an efficient multiscale scheme for inelastic heterogeneous materials

A predictive computational theory is shown for modeling complex, hierarchical materials ranging from metal alloys to polymer nanocomposites. The theory can capture complex mechanisms such as plasticity and failure that span across multiple length scales. This general multiscale material modeling theory relies on sound principles of mathematics and mechanics, and a cutting-edge reduced order modeling method named self-consistent clustering analysis (SCA) [Zeliang Liu, M.A. Bessa, Wing Kam Liu, “Self-consistent clustering analysis: An efficient multi-scale scheme for inelastic heterogeneous materials,” Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 306 (2016) 319–341]. SCA reduces by several orders of magnitude the computational cost of micromechanical and concurrent multiscale simulations, while retaining the microstructure information. This remarkable increase in efficiency is achieved with a data-driven clustering method. Computationally expensive operations are performed in the so-called offline stage, where degrees of freedom (DOFs) are agglomerated into clusters. The interaction tensor of these clusters is computed. In the online or predictive stage, the Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation is solved cluster-wise using a self-consistent scheme to ensure solution accuracy and avoid path dependence. To construct a concurrent multiscale model, this scheme is applied at each material point in a macroscale structure, replacing a conventional constitutive model with the average response computed from the microscale model using just the SCA online stage. A regularized damage theory is incorporated in the microscale that avoids the mesh and RVE size dependence that commonly plagues microscale damage calculations. The SCA method is illustrated with two cases: a carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) structure with the concurrent multiscale model and an application to fatigue prediction for additively manufactured metals. For the CFRP problem, a speed up estimated to be about 43,000 is achieved by using the SCA method, as opposed to FE2, enabling the solution of an otherwise computationally intractable problem. The second example uses a crystal plasticity constitutive law and computes the fatigue potency of extrinsic microscale features such as voids. This shows that local stress and strain are capture sufficiently well by SCA. This model has been incorporated in a process-structure-properties prediction framework for process design in additive manufacturing.

Liu, Z.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Machine Learning

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networks and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physical-mass calculation of ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonance parameters via π π and K π scattering amplitudes from lattice QCD

We present our study of the ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonances from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) employing domain-wall fermions at physical quark masses. We determine the finite-volume energy spectrum in various momentum frames and obtain phase-shift parametrizations via the Lüscher formalism and as a final step the complex resonance poles of the π π and K π elastic scattering amplitudes via an analytical continuation of the models. By sampling a large number of representative sets of underlying energy-level fits, we also assign a systematic uncertainty to our final results. This is a significant extension to data-driven analysis methods that have been used in lattice QCD to date, due to the two-step nature of the formalism. Our final pole positions, M + i Γ / 2 , with all statistical and systematic errors exposed, are M K * = 893 ( 2 ) ( 8 ) ( 54 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ K * = 51 ( 2 ) ( 11 ) ( 3 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the K * ( 892 ) resonance and M ρ = 796 ( 5 ) ( 15 ) ( 48 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ ρ = 192 ( 10 ) ( 28 ) ( 12 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the ρ ( 770 ) resonance. The four differently grouped sources of uncertainties are, in the order of occurrence: statistical, data-driven systematic, an estimation of systematic effects beyond our computation (dominated by the fact that we employ a single lattice spacing), and the error from the scale-setting uncertainty on our ensemble. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interactive Metadata Integration with Brick

Many different digital representations of a building are produced over the course of its lifecycle. While these representations individually contain metadata required to support different stages of the building's lifecycle, they are largely not interoperable due to differences in structure, syntax and semantics. This impedes the development and deployment of data-driven applications providing fault detection and diagnosis, virtual metering or optimal control. [4] introduces a new platform for the continuous curation of a unified, Brick [1]-based metadata model that can be maintained throughout the building lifecycle. In this demonstration, we present a live proof-of-concept implementation of the platform with support for several metadata representations in the context of a simulated building lifecycle.

Fierro, Gabe↗
DOE OSTI2018

Integrating Multiscale Datasets for Monitoring Air Dose Rates in Fukushima - 18437

Six years has passed since the radionuclide release occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. Measurements and monitoring of air dose rates (i.e., ambient dose equivalent rates) in the region around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP have been performed continuously since the accident. Such mapping efforts are essential to protect the public, to guide decontamination efforts, and to plan the return of evacuated residents. An extensive monitoring program has enabled to develop a data-driven environmental decay model for describing and predicting the decay of radiation air dose rates in the environment. However, it has been difficult to quantify the heterogeneity of environmental decay in the regional scale, since spatially extensive airborne survey datasets often have discrepancy with the ground-based measurements and have a larger uncertainty. Recently, a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach was developed to integrate multiscale datasets (i.e., car, walk and airborne surveys), and also to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in high resolution over space. The integrated air dose rate maps have been contributed to planning of the future decontamination and resident's return as well as associated cost. In this study, we aim to extend this approach and predict the area of the evacuation zone in the future. WE coupled the integrated map with the data-driven ecological decay model. Results show that the area of vacuation zone (i.e., the area above 3.8 micro-Sv/yr) will shrink significantly in the next twenty years, and it will be fully contained in the non-residential forested area by 2040. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report

Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Crowd-Sourced Data and Analysis Tools for Advancing the Chemical Vapor Deposition of Graphene: Implications for Manufacturing

Industrial production of graphene by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) requires more than the ability to synthesize large domain, high-quality graphene in a lab reactor. The integration of graphene in the fabrication process of electronic devices requires the cost-effective and environmentally friendly production of graphene on dielectric substrates, but current approaches can only produce graphene on metal catalysts. Sustainable manufacturing of graphene should also conserve the catalyst and reaction gases, but today the metal catalysts are typically dissolved after synthesis. Progress toward these objectives is hindered by the hundreds of coupled synthesis parameters that can strongly affect CVD of low-dimensional materials and poor communication in the published literature of the rich experimental data that exists in individual laboratories. We report here on a platform, "graphene recipes for synthesis of high quality material" (Gr-ResQ: pronounced graphene rescue), which includes powerful new tools for data-driven graphene synthesis. At the core of Gr-ResQ is a crowd-sourced database of CVD synthesis recipes and associated experimental results. The database captures similar to 300 parameters ranging from synthesis conditions such as a catalyst material and preparation steps, to ambient lab temperature and reactor details, as well as resulting Raman spectra and microscopy images. These parameters are carefully selected to unlock the potential of machine-learning models to advance synthesis. A suite of associated tools enable fast, automated, and standardized processing of Raman spectra and scanning electron microscopy images. To facilitate community-based efforts, Gr-ResQ provides tools for cyber-physical collaborations among research groups, allowing experiments to be designed, executed, and analyzed by different teams. Gr-ResQ also allows publication and discovery of recipes via the Materials Data Facility, which assigns each recipe a unique identifier when published and collects parameters in a search index. We envision that this holistic approach to data-driven synthesis can accelerate CVD recipe discovery and production control and open opportunities for advancing not only graphene but also many other 1D and 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗
DOE OSTI2023

MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED PREDICTION OF TRANSIENT INJECTION MAP IN AUTOMOTIVE INJECTORS WITH UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Accurate prediction of injection profiles is a critical aspect of linking injector operation with engine performance and emissions. However, highly resolved injector simulations can take one to two weeks of wall-clock time, which is incompatible with engine design cycles with desired turnaround times of less than a day. Hence, it is important to reduce the time-to-solution of the internal flow simulations by several orders of magnitude to make it compatible with engine simulations. This work demonstrates a data-driven approach for tackling the computational overhead of injector simulations, whereby the transient injection profiles are emulated for a side-oriented, single-hole diesel injector using a Bayesian machine-learning framework. First, an interpretable Bayesian learning strategy was employed to understand the effect of design parameters on the total void fraction field. Then, autoencoders are utilized for efficient dimensionality reduction of the flowfields. Gaussian process models are finally used to predict the spatiotemporal void fraction field at the injector exit for unknown operating conditions. The Gaussian process models produce principled uncertainty estimates associated with the emulated flowfields, which provide the engine designer with valuable information of where the data-driven predictions can be trusted in the design space. The Bayesian flowfield predictions are compared with the corresponding predictions from a deep neural network, which has been transfer-learned from static needle simulations from a previous work by the authors. The emulation framework can predict the void fraction field at the exit of the orifice within a few seconds, thus achieving a speed-up factor of up to 38 x 10(6) over the traditional simulation-based approach of generating transient injection maps.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO 2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO 2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO 2 -driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Autonomous Assessment and Predictive Capabilities for Low-Altitude Urban Flight Operations

The integration of unmanned aerial vehicles in the national airspace will introduce new vehicle types, technologies, and operational paradigms for which safety must be maintained and hazards mitigated. One approach is to attempt to design for possible hazards and unsafe incidents that can occur at different phases of flight (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight) and during ground operations. Another is to mitigate safety incidents by implementing changes to policies, procedures, regulations, and design to cover personnel, equipment, and aircraft during operations. These and other techniques, not described herein, are typically conservative or adhoc in that they reduce the likelihood of risk after safety incidents have occurred. In this work, the goal is to develop a more predictive capability to monitor and mitigate risk and hazards to safety “in-time” enough for decisions to be made. In line with NASA’s Aeronautics Mission Directorate Strategic Thrust 5 [1] (In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance), the System-Wide Safety (SWS) project under which this work falls, is developing and demonstrating innovative and safety-oriented solutions that enable modernization and aviation transformation. To that effect, this work will detail data-driven efforts on the SWS project to develop a number of safety-critical services for in-time monitoring and mitigation of hazards to low-altitude flight operations. First, hazards to these operations are identified based on previous work by NASA [2,3] and others in the aerospace industry. These hazards include (i) unsafe proximity to other vehicles, property, and people on the ground, (ii) critical system failures such as communication signal/GPS loss, unexpected propulsion system degradation, engine/power failure, and (iii) operational/environmental issues such as severe weather and gusty winds. For these hazards, safety metrics, which can be quantified and assessed are defined, models to monitor and predict them are developed, and flight test data is generated to develop, validate, and test these models, considering the complex interplay of the different hazards that define them [4-6]. In addition, the uncertainty in the non-deterministic effects that cannot be modeled nor predicted and unknown unknowns that arise after design/testing and during operations must be handled in rigorous manner. As a result, for each of the developed safety metrics, their dependencies on one another are characterized and a framework for handling the uncertainties inherent in the modeling, algorithms, and measurements required for prediction is also developed [7]. To that effect, this presentation will describe the safety metrics and services already developed and underway under the System-Wide Safety project that utilize data-driven techniques for the identification of anomalies, precursors, and trends (APTs) to monitor and mitigate hazards to safety, in-time, for urban flight operations in low-altitude airspace.

Okolo, Wendy A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid Analytics Solution for Power Plant Operations

Expert Microsystems, Inc., MapEx Software Inc. and XMPLR Energy LLC have teamed to submit a proposal to the US Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy to improve the efficiency, reliability and flexibility of existing coal-based power plants. The project, titled Hybrid Analytics Solution to Improve Coal Power Plant Operations (the “Hybrid Analytics” project), will develop, demonstrate and commercialize a novel approach that integrates two proven real-time monitoring techniques. The Hybrid Analytics approach integrates into a single, integrated solution: a) an established, advanced data-driven analytics solution that includes artificial intelligence, advanced pattern recognition and machine-learning techniques and b) a well-proven, first principle thermal heat balance model solution. The future role of coal plants will depend on the ability to cycle and follow loads to meet marginal power demands, accommodate renewables and support the grid. Essential to success in this new role is a plant’s ability to maintain high reliability, efficiency and flexibility. However, these changing operational demands put significant stresses on power plant components that directly impact the ability to deliver these requirements. In the past, plants have independently monitored performance using physics-based solutions (heat rate, boiler losses, etc.) and reliability using data-driven analytics (advanced pattern recognition). The Hybrid Analytics solution integrates both approaches to enhance fault detection, provide automated diagnostics and estimates of remaining time to act, and provide critical, enhanced and accurate real-time information to coal plant operators. As a result, coal plants can improve efficiency, reliability, and flexibility and can cost-effectively maintain their key role in the power delivery system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting permeation of compounds across the outer membrane of P. aeruginosa using molecular descriptors

The ability Gram-negative pathogens have at adapting and protecting themselves against antibiotics has increasingly become a public health threat. Data-driven models identifying molecular properties that correlate with outer membrane (OM) permeation and growth inhibition while avoiding efflux could guide the discovery of novel classes of antibiotics. Here we evaluate 174 molecular descriptors in 1260 antimicrobial compounds and study their correlations with antibacterial activity in Gram-negative Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The descriptors are derived from traditional approaches quantifying the compounds’ intrinsic physicochemical properties, together with, bacterium-specific from ensemble docking of compounds targeting specific MexB binding pockets, and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in different subregions of the OM model. Using these descriptors and the measured inhibitory concentrations, we design a statistical protocol to identify predictors of OM permeation/inhibition. We find consistent rules across most of our data highlighting the role of the interaction between the compounds and the OM. An implementation of the rules uncovered in our study is shown, and it demonstrates the accuracy of our approach in a set of previously unseen compounds. Our analysis sheds new light on the key properties drug candidates need to effectively permeate/inhibit P. aeruginosa, and opens the gate to similar data-driven studies in other Gram-negative pathogens.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Machine-Learning Enabled New Insights into the Coil-to-Globule Transition of Thermosensitive Polymers Using a Coarse-Grained Model

In this paper, we present a computational framework that integrates coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and a data-driven machine-learning (ML) method to gain insights into the conformations of polymers in solutions. We employ this framework to study conformational transition of a model thermosensitive polymer, poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM). Here, we have developed the first of its kind, a temperature-independent CG model of PNIPAM that can accurately predict its experimental lower critical solution temperature (LCST) while retaining the tacticity in the presence of an explicit water model. The CG model was extensively validated by performing CG MD simulations with different initial conformations, varying the radius of gyration of chain, the chain length, and the angle between the adjacent monomers of the initial configuration of PNIPAM (total simulation time = 90 μs). Moreover, for the first time, we utilize the nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) method, a data-driven ML approach, to gain further insights into the mechanisms and pathways of this coil-to-globule transition by analyzing CG MD simulation trajectories. In conclusion, NMDS analysis provides entirely new insights and shows multiple metastable states of PNIPAM during its coil-to-globule transition above the LCST.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning from metastable symmetric-tilt grain boundaries using physics-based descriptors

Grain boundaries (GBs) govern critical properties of polycrystalline materials. Although significant advancements have been made in characterizing minimum energy and ordered GBs, real GBs are seldom found in such well-defined states. This diversity of atomic arrangements in metastable states makes it challenging to establish structure-property relationships with physical insights. Here, to address this challenge, we use data-driven methods to explore these relationships and examine the underlying physics. In this study, we utilize a large atomistic database (~5000) of minimum energy and metastable states of symmetric-tilt copper GBs, combined with physically motivated local atomic environment (LAE) descriptors [strain functional descriptors (SFDs)], to predict GB properties and gain physical insights. Our regression models exhibit robust predictive capabilities using only 19 descriptors, generalizing to atomic environments in nanocrystals. A significant highlight of our work is the integration of an unsupervised method with SFDs to elucidate LAEs at GBs and their role in determining properties. The model, trained on these minimum energy and metastable GBs using SFDs, predicts the properties of unseen nanocrystals with good accuracy. Our research underscores the role of a physics-based representation of LAEs and the efficacy of data-driven methods in establishing GB structure-property relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linear Time-Invariant Models of a Large Cumulus Ensemble

Abstract Methods in system identification are used to obtain linear time-invariant state-space models that describe how horizontal averages of temperature and humidity of a large cumulus ensemble evolve with time under small forcing. The cumulus ensemble studied here is simulated with cloud-system-resolving models in radiative–convective equilibrium. The identified models extend steady-state linear response functions used in past studies and provide accurate descriptions of the transfer function, the noise model, and the behavior of cumulus convection when coupled with two-dimensional gravity waves. A novel procedure is developed to convert the state-space models into an interpretable form, which is used to elucidate and quantify memory in cumulus convection. The linear problem studied here serves as a useful reference point for more general efforts to obtain data-driven and interpretable parameterizations of cumulus convection.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗