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NASA NTRS1991

Estimation variance bounds of importance sampling simulations in digital communication systems

In practical applications of importance sampling (IS) simulation, two basic problems are encountered, that of determining the estimation variance and that of evaluating the proper IS parameters needed in the simulations. The authors derive new upper and lower bounds on the estimation variance which are applicable to IS techniques. The upper bound is simple to evaluate and may be minimized by the proper selection of the IS parameter. Thus, lower and upper bounds on the improvement ratio of various IS techniques relative to the direct Monte Carlo simulation are also available. These bounds are shown to be useful and computationally simple to obtain. Based on the proposed technique, one can readily find practical suboptimum IS parameters. Numerical results indicate that these bounding techniques are useful for IS simulations of linear and nonlinear communication systems with intersymbol interference in which bit error rate and IS estimation variances cannot be obtained readily using prior techniques.

Lu, D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A comparison of the effects of small nonlinearities on several estimation schemes.

A variety of techniques are available for estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data. These procedures are generally equivalent when applied to linear systems. This paper investigates the difference between several of these procedures in the presence of small dynamic and observational nonlinearities. In particular, it examines one least square batch processing algorithm, and three recursive algorithms similar to the Kalman filter. To first order, all the estimators have the same covariance. Expressions for the means, however, show that each estimator has a different bias. The examples presented show that the biases can be a strong function of such parameters as initial covariances and number of data points being considered.

Conrad, B.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A game theoretic approach to a finite-time disturbance attenuation problem

A disturbance attenuation problem over a finite-time interval is considered by a game theoretic approach where the control, restricted to a function of the measurement history, plays against adversaries composed of the process and measurement disturbances, and the initial state. A zero-sum game, formulated as a quadratic cost criterion subject to linear time-varying dynamics and measurements, is solved by a calculus of variation technique. By first maximizing the quadratic cost criterion with respect to the process disturbance and initial state, a full information game between the control and the measurement residual subject to the estimator dynamics results. The resulting solution produces an n-dimensional compensator which expresses the controller as a linear combination of the measurement history. A disturbance attenuation problem is solved based on the results of the game problem. For time-invariant systems it is shown that under certain conditions the time-varying controller becomes time-invariant on the infinite-time interval. The resulting controller satisfies an H(infinity) norm bound.

Rhee, Ihnseok↗

NASA NTRS1988

Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations

A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.

Murphy, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations

Murphy, K. A.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Physics-Informed CoKriging: A Gaussian-Process-Regression-Based Multifidelity Method for Data-Model Convergence

In this work, we propose a new Gaussian process regression (GPR)-based multifidelity method: physics-informed CoKriging (CoPhIK). In CoKriging-based multifidelity methods, the quantities of interest are modeled as linear combinations of multiple parameterized stationary Gaussian processes (GPs), and the hyperparameters of these GPs are estimated from data via optimization. In CoPhIK, we construct a GP representing low-fidelity data using physics-informed Kriging (PhIK), and model the discrepancy between low- and highfidelity data using a parameterized GP with hyperparameters identified via optimization. Our approach reduces the cost of optimization for inferring hyperparameters by incorporating partial physical knowledge. We prove that the physical constraints in the form of deterministic linear operators are satisfied up to an error bound. Furthermore, we combine CoPhIK with a greedy active learning algorithm for guiding the selection of additional observation locations. The eciency and accuracy of CoPhIK are demonstrated for reconstructing the partially observed modified Branin function, reconstructing the sparsely observed state of a steady state heat transport problem, and learning a conservative tracer distribution from sparse tracer concentration measurements.

Yang, Xiu↗

DOE OSTI2016

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. In this paper, we analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India and adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. Finally, the increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Current Pressure Transducer Application of Model-based Prognostics Using Steady State Conditions

Prognostics is the process of predicting a system's future states, health degradation/wear, and remaining useful life (RUL). This information plays an important role in preventing failure, reducing downtime, scheduling maintenance, and improving system utility. Prognostics relies heavily on wear estimation. In some components, the sensors used to estimate wear may not be fast enough to capture brief transient states that are indicative of wear. For this reason it is beneficial to be capable of detecting and estimating the extent of component wear using steady-state measurements. This paper details a method for estimating component wear using steady-state measurements, describes how this is used to predict future states, and presents a case study of a current/pressure (I/P) Transducer. I/P Transducer nominal and off-nominal behaviors are characterized using a physics-based model, and validated against expected and observed component behavior. This model is used to map observed steady-state responses to corresponding fault parameter values in the form of a lookup table. This method was chosen because of its fast, efficient nature, and its ability to be applied to both linear and non-linear systems. Using measurements of the steady state output, and the lookup table, wear is estimated. A regression is used to estimate the wear propagation parameter and characterize the damage progression function, which are used to predict future states and the remaining useful life of the system.

Fault Estimation↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the impact of the galaxy window function on cosmological parameter estimation

One important source of systematics in galaxy redshift surveys comes from the estimation of the galaxy window function. Up until now, the impact of the uncertainty in estimating the galaxy window function on parameter inference has not been properly studied. In this paper, we show that the uncertainty and the bias in estimating the galaxy window function will be salient for ongoing and next-generation galaxy surveys using a simulation-based approach. With a specific case study of cross-correlating emission-line galaxies from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys and the Planck cosmic microwave background lensing map, we show that neural network-based regression approaches to modelling the window function are superior in comparison to linear regression-based models. Here, we additionally show that the definition of the galaxy overdensity estimator can impact the overall signal-to-noise of observed power spectra. Finally, we show that the additive biases coming from the window functions can significantly bias the modes of the inferred parameters and also degrade their precision. Thus, a careful understanding of the window functions will be essential to conduct cosmological experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

On the Magnetic Squashing Factor and the Lie Transport of Tangents

The squashing factor (or squashing degree) of a vector field is a quantitative measure of the deformation of the field line mapping between two surfaces. In the context of solar magnetic fields, it is often used to identify gradients in the mapping of elementary magnetic flux tubes between various flux domains. Regions where these gradients in the mapping are large are referred to as quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs), and are a continuous extension of separators and separatrix surfaces. These QSLs are observed to be potential sites for the formation of strong electric currents, and are therefore important for the study of magnetic reconnection in three dimensions. Since the squashing factor, Q , is defined in terms of the Jacobian of the field line mapping, it is most often calculated by first determining the mapping between two surfaces (or some approximation of it) and then numerically differentiating. Tassev and Savcheva have introduced an alternative method, in which they parameterize the change in separation between adjacent field lines, and then integrate along individual field lines to get an estimate of the Jacobian without the need to numerically differentiate the mapping itself. But while their method offers certain computational advantages, it is formulated on a perturbative description of the field line trajectory, and the accuracy of this method is not entirely clear. Here we show, through an alternative derivation, that this integral formulation is, in principle, exact. We then demonstrate the result in the case of a linear, 3D magnetic null, which allows for an exact analytical description and direct comparison to numerical estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A control-oriented combustion model framework for compression ignition engines operating on low-reactivity fuel

This work focuses on zero-dimensional modeling of the heat release rate in a compression ignition engine operating on gasoline-like fuels. Due to the properties of gasoline, such as high volatility and longer ignition delay than diesel, the injection strategies can vary significantly from the operation with conventional diesel fuel. Different injection strategies are commonly used to achieve varying degrees of in-cylinder stratification in order to shape the combustion event and maximize efficiency. The proposed zero-dimensional combustion model was developed to account for the different stages in combustion caused by the fuel stratification. As the ignition delay model is an integral part of the entire combustion process and significantly affects the prediction accuracy, special attention has been paid to local phenomena influencing ignition delay. A one-dimensional spray model by Musculus and Kattke was employed in conjunction with a Lagrangian tracking approach in order to estimate the local air–fuel ratio within the spray tip, as a proxy for reactivity. The local air–fuel ratio, in-cylinder temperature and pressure were used in an integral fashion to estimate the ignition delay. Heat release rates were modeled using first-order non-linear differential equations. The proposed combustion model was validated against experimental data of a heavy-duty compression ignition engine with up to three injection events at mostly 1038 r/min and 14 bar brake mean effective pressure. Further validation of the model was carried out at other engine loads and speeds. Model prediction errors in CA50 of less than 1 °CA across all conditions were found. Modeling results of other combustion metrics such as combustion duration and indicated mean effective pressure are also highly satisfactory. In addition, the model has been shown to be capable of estimating the ringing intensity for most conditions.

Pamminger, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2013

Efficient Screening of Climate Model Sensitivity to a Large Number of Perturbed Input Parameters [plus supporting information]

Modern climate models contain numerous input parameters, each with a range of possible values. Since the volume of parameter space increases exponentially with the number of parameters N, it is generally impossible to directly evaluate a model throughout this space even if just 2-3 values are chosen for each parameter. Sensitivity screening algorithms, however, can identify input parameters having relatively little effect on a variety of output fields, either individually or in nonlinear combination.This can aid both model development and the uncertainty quantification (UQ) process. Here we report results from a parameter sensitivity screening algorithm hitherto untested in climate modeling, the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method. This algorithm drastically reduces the computational cost of estimating sensitivities in a high dimensional parameter space because the sample size grows linearly rather than exponentially with N. It nevertheless samples over much of the N-dimensional volume and allows assessment of parameter interactions, unlike traditional elementary one-at-a-time (EOAT) parameter variation. We applied both EOAT and MOAT to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), assessing CAM’s behavior as a function of 27 uncertain input parameters related to the boundary layer, clouds, and other subgrid scale processes. For radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, EOAT and MOAT rank most input parameters similarly, but MOAT identifies a sensitivity that EOAT underplays for two convection parameters that operate nonlinearly in the model. MOAT’s ranking of input parameters is robust to modest algorithmic variations, and it is qualitatively consistent with model development experience. Supporting information is also provided at the end of the full text of the article.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Using gap-filled MAIAC AOD and WRF-Chem to estimate daily PM 2.5 concentrations at 1 km resolution in the Eastern United States

To link short-term exposures of air pollutants to health outcomes, scientists must use high temporal and spatial resolution estimates of PM 2.5 concentrations. We develop a daily PM 2.5 product at 1 × 1 km 2 spatial resolution across the eastern United States (east of 90° W) with the aid of 1 × 1 km 2 MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, 36 × 36 km 2 WRF-Chem output, 1 × 1 km 2 land-use type from the National Land Cover Database, and 0.125° × 0.125° ERA-Interim re-analysis meteorology. A gap-filling technique is applied to MAIAC AOD data to construct robust daily estimates of AOD when the satellite data are missing (e.g., areas obstructed by clouds or snow cover). The input data are incorporated into a multiple-linear regression model trained to surface observations of PM 2.5 from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring network. The model generates a high-fidelity estimate (r 2 = 0.75 using a 10-fold random cross-validation) of daily PM 2.5 throughout the eastern United States. Of the inputs to the statistical model, WRF-Chem output (r 2 = 0.66) is the most important contributor to the skill of the model. MAIAC AOD is also a strong contributor (r 2 = 0.52). Daily PM 2.5 output from our statistical model can be easily integrated into county-level epidemiological studies. The novelty of this project is that we are able to simulate PM 2.5 in a computationally efficient manner that is constrained to ground monitors, satellite data, and chemical transport model output at high spatial resolution (1 × 1 km 2 ) without sacrificing the temporal resolution (daily) or spatial coverage (>2,000,000 km 2 ).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

An interlaboratory comparison of mid-infrared spectra acquisition: Instruments and procedures matter

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy has been extensively employed to deliver timely and cost-effective predictions of a number of soil properties. However, although several soil spectral laboratories have been established worldwide, the distinct characteristics of instruments and operations still hamper further integration and interoperability across mid-infrared (MIR) soil spectral libraries. In this study, we conducted a large-scale ring trial experiment to understand the lab-to-lab variability of multiple MIR instruments. By developing a systematic evaluation of different mathematical treatments with modeling algorithms, including regular preprocessing and spectral standardization, we quantified and evaluated instruments' dissimilarity and how this impacts internal and shared model performance. We found that all instruments delivered good predictions when calibrated internally using the same instruments' characteristics and standard operating procedures by solely relying on regular spectral preprocessing that accounts for light scattering and multiplicative/additive effects, e.g., using standard normal variate (SNV). When performing model transfer from a large public library (the USDA NSSCKSSL MIR library) to secondary instruments, good performance was also achieved by regular preprocessing (e. g., SNV) if both instruments shared the same manufacturer. However, significant differences between the KSSL MIR library and contrasting ring trial instruments responses were evident and confirmed by a semi-unsupervised spectral clustering. For heavily contrasting setups, spectral standardization was necessary before transferring prediction models. Non-linear model types like Cubist and memory-based learning delivered more precise estimates because they seemed to be less sensitive to spectral variations than global partial least square regression. In summary, the results from this study can assist new laboratories in building spectroscopy capacity utilizing existing MIR spectral libraries and support the recent global efforts to make soil spectroscopy universally accessible with centralized or shared operating procedures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

A hybrid transport-diffusion model for radiative transfer in absorbing and scattering media

A new multi-scale hybrid transport-diffusion model for radiative transfer is proposed in order to improve the efficiency of the calculations close to the diffusive regime, in absorbing and strongly scattering media. In this model, the radiative intensity is decomposed into a macroscopic component calculated by the diffusion equation, and a mesoscopic component. The transport equation for the mesoscopic component allows to correct the estimation of the diffusion equation, and then to obtain the solution of the linear radiative transfer equation. In this work, results are presented for stationary and transient radiative transfer cases, in examples which concern solar concentrated and optical tomography applications. The Monte Carlo and the discrete-ordinate methods are used to solve the mesoscopic equation. It is shown that the multi-scale model allows to improve the efficiency of the calculations when the medium is close to the diffusive regime. The proposed model is a good alternative for radiative transfer at the intermediate regime where the macroscopic diffusion equation is not accurate enough and the radiative transfer equation requires too much computational effort.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phase estimation algorithm for the multibeam optical metrology

Unitary Fourier transform lies at the core of the multitudinous computational and metrological algorithms. Here we show experimentally how the unitary Fourier transform-based phase estimation protocol, used namely in quantum metrology, can be translated into the classical linear optical framework. The developed setup made of beam splitters, mirrors and phase shifters demonstrates how the classical coherence, similarly to the quantum coherence, poses a resource for obtaining information about the measurable physical quantities. Our study opens route to the reliable implementation of the small-scale unitary algorithms on path-encoded qudits, thus establishing an easily accessible platform for unitary computation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

State-to-state, multi-collision, energy transfer in H–H{sub 2} gas ensembles

We use our recently developed computational model of energy flow in gas ensembles to study translation-to-internal energy conversion in an ensemble consisting of H{sub 2}(0; 0) in a bath of H atoms. This mixture is found in plasmas of industrial importance and also in interstellar clouds. The storage of energy of relative motion as rovibrational energy of H{sub 2} represents a potential mechanism for cooling translation. This may have relevance in astrophysical contexts such as the post-recombination epoch of the early universe when hydrogenic species dominated and cooling was a precondition for the formation of structured objects. We find that conversion of translational motion to H{sub 2} vibration and rotation is fast and, in our closed system, is complete within around 100 cycles of ensemble collisions. Large amounts of energy become stored as H{sub 2} vibration and a tentative mechanism for this unequal energy distribution is suggested. The “structured dis-equilibrium” we observe is found to persist through many collision cycles. In contrast to the rapidity of excitation, the relaxation of H{sub 2}(6; 10) in H is very slow and not complete after 10{sup 5} collision cycles. The quasi-equilibrium modal temperatures of translation, rotation, and vibration are found to scale linearly with collision energy but at different rates. This may be useful in estimating the partitioning of energy within a given H + H{sub 2} ensemble.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification strategies for large-scale multiphysics applications: PSAAP II particle-based solar energy receiver

The study of complex systems is often based on computationally intensive, high-fidelity, simulations. To build confidence or improve the prediction accuracy of such simulations, the impact of uncertainties in model inputs, or even the structure of the models, on the quantities of interest must be measured. This, however, requires a computational budget that is a possibly large multiple of the cost of a single simulation, and thus may become infeasible for expensive simulation models featuring a large number of uncertain inputs and highly non-linear behavior. Therefore, this work explores multi-fidelity strategies to accelerate the estimation of the effect of uncertainties. The main idea behind multi-fidelity methods is to utilize cheaper, lower-fidelity models – than the intended high-fidelity, expensive model of the problem – to generate a baseline solution that together with relatively small number of high-fidelity simulations can lead to accurate predictions. The methods are briefly presented, and their performance assessed on an irradiated particle-laden turbulent flow case related to Stanford’s PSAAP II particle-based solar energy receiver.

Physics↗