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DOE OSTI2021

BAWLD-CH 4 : a comprehensive dataset of methane fluxes from boreal and arctic ecosystems

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the boreal and arctic region are globally significant and highly sensitive to climate change. There is currently a wide range in estimates of high-latitude annual CH 4 fluxes, where estimates based on land cover inventories and empirical CH 4 flux data or process models (bottom-up approaches) generally are greater than atmospheric inversions (top-down approaches). A limitation of bottom-up approaches has been the lack of harmonization between inventories of site-level CH 4 flux data and the land cover classes present in high-latitude spatial datasets. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of small-scale, surface CH 4 flux data from 540 terrestrial sites (wetland and non-wetland) and 1247 aquatic sites (lakes and ponds), compiled from 189 studies. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Methane Dataset (BAWLD-CH 4 ) was constructed in parallel with a compatible land cover dataset, sharing the same land cover classes to enable refined bottom-up assessments. BAWLD-CH 4 includes information on site-level CH 4 fluxes but also on study design (measurement method, timing, and frequency) and site characteristics (vegetation, climate, hydrology, soil, and sediment types, permafrost conditions, lake size and depth, and our determination of land cover class). The different land cover classes had distinct CH 4 fluxes, resulting from definitions that were either based on or co-varied with key environmental controls. Fluxes of CH 4 from terrestrial ecosystems were primarily influenced by water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition, while CH 4 fluxes from aquatic ecosystems were primarily influenced by water temperature, lake size, and lake genesis. Models could explain more of the between-site variability in CH 4 fluxes for terrestrial than aquatic ecosystems, likely due to both less precise assessments of lake CH 4 fluxes and fewer consistently reported lake site characteristics. Analysis of BAWLD-CH 4 identified both land cover classes and regions within the boreal and arctic domain, where future studies should be focused, alongside methodological approaches. Overall, BAWLD-CH 4 provides a comprehensive dataset of CH 4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems that are useful for identifying research opportunities, for comparison against new field data, and model parameterization or validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Shuttle operations era planning for flight operations

The Space Transportation System (STS) provides routine access to space for a wide range of customers in which cargos vary from single payloads on dedicated flights to multiple payloads that share Shuttle resources. This paper describes the flight operations planning process from payload introduction through flight assignment to execution of the payload objectives and the changes that have been introduced to improve that process. Particular attention is given to the factors that influence the amount of preflight preparation necessary to satisfy customer requirements. The partnership between the STS operations team and the customer is described in terms of their functions and responsibilities in the development of a flight plan. A description of the Mission Control Center (MCC) and payload support capabilities completes the overview of Shuttle flight operations.

Holt, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Job Scheduling Under the Portable Batch System

The typical batch queuing system schedules jobs for execution by a set of queue controls. The controls determine from which queues jobs may be selected. Within the queue, jobs are ordered first-in, first-run. This limits the set of scheduling policies available to a site. The Portable Batch System removes this limitation by providing an external scheduling module. This separate program has full knowledge of the available queued jobs, running jobs, and system resource usage. Sites are able to implement any policy expressible in one of several procedural language. Policies may range from "bet fit" to "fair share" to purely political. Scheduling decisions can be made over the full set of jobs regardless of queue or order. The scheduling policy can be changed to fit a wide variety of computing environments and scheduling goals. This is demonstrated by the use of PBS on an IBM SP-2 system at NASA Ames.

Henderson, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Interfacing Space Communications and Navigation Network Simulation with Distributed System Integration Laboratories (DSIL)

NASA's planned Lunar missions will involve multiple NASA centers where each participating center has a specific role and specialization. In this vision, the Constellation program (CxP)'s Distributed System Integration Laboratories (DSIL) architecture consist of multiple System Integration Labs (SILs), with simulators, emulators, testlabs and control centers interacting with each other over a broadband network to perform test and verification for mission scenarios. To support the end-to-end simulation and emulation effort of NASA' exploration initiatives, different NASA centers are interconnected to participate in distributed simulations. Currently, DSIL has interconnections among the following NASA centers: Johnson Space Center (JSC), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Through interconnections and interactions among different NASA centers, critical resources and data can be shared, while independent simulations can be performed simultaneously at different NASA locations, to effectively utilize the simulation and emulation capabilities at each center. Furthermore, the development of DSIL can maximally leverage the existing project simulation and testing plans. In this work, we describe the specific role and development activities at JPL for Space Communications and Navigation Network (SCaN) simulator using the Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) tool to simulate communications effects among mission assets. Using MACHETE, different space network configurations among spacecrafts and ground systems of various parameter sets can be simulated. Data that is necessary for tracking, navigation, and guidance of spacecrafts such as Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV), and Lunar Relay Satellite (LRS) and orbit calculation data are disseminated to different NASA centers and updated periodically using the High Level Architecture (HLA). In addition, the performance of DSIL under different traffic loads with different mix of data and priorities are evaluated.

Traffic Measuring and Monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Forecasting with Federated LSTM to Plan Energy Sharing in a Community Microgrid

Energy balancing in microgrids is a key enabler of resilience. Community microgrids located close to each other have the added benefit of networking and sharing surplus energy, if available. Such complex decision-making runs on optimization that requires reliable short-term (up to very-short-term) forecasts of energy generation and consumption for scheduling or trading. Each microgrid may also opt to not expose their sensitive data such as consumption patterns of individual businesses or residences. This paper investigates a federated approach to dayahead forecasting that trains naive long short-term memory (LSTM) at each business in a microgrid and aggregates weights at the microgrid controller using proximal regularization. This approach ensures that the controller has access only to energy surplus/deficit and not the actual generation or consumption values, avoiding unwanted exposure of sensitive data. A community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico with 3 businesses is selected as a case study with a laboratory-scale computing setup. A central LSTM forecaster, where sensitive data from businesses are aggregated at the controller, is implemented as a baseline for qualifying the results. This work serves as a proof-of-concept for scaling the approach to networked and nested microgrids with more complex control options.

Sundararajan, Aditya [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033577854↗

DOE OSTI2024

RESONANT MATCHING SECTION FOR CEBAF ENERGY UPGRADE

Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jeffer- son Lab) currently studies the feasibility of upgrading its energy to 22 GeV. It considers addition of six more linac passes. The highest energy passes will share two new arcs designed using the Fixed-Field Alternating Gradient (FFA) technology. The FFA arcs are built using permanent combined-function magnets. They will be connected to the linacs through transition sections that will match the optics of all six passes to the linacs. With the high number of con- straints and the limited space available, we are investigating a parametric resonance technique to match the optics quasi- independently at each energy. A resonance is excited at each individual energy to selectively control its optics. The reso- nant dipole and quadrupole kick harmonics are imposed for all energies simultaneously using Panofsky corrector mag- nets placed throughout the FFA arcs. This paper presents the current progress on that transition section design

Deitrick, K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

PalymSys (TM): An extended version of CLIPS for construction and reasoning using blackboards

This paper describes PalymSys(TM) -- an extended version of the CLIPS language that is designed to facilitate the implementation of blackboard systems. The paper first describes the general characteristics of blackboards and shows how a control blackboard architecture can be used by AI systems to examine their own behavior and adapt to real-time problem-solving situations by striking a balance between domain and control reasoning. The paper then describes the use of PalymSys in the development of a situation assessment subsystem for use aboard Army helicopters. This system performs real-time inferencing about the current battlefield situation using multiple domain blackboards as well as a control blackboard. A description of the control and domain blackboards and their implementation is presented. The paper also describes modifications made to the standard CLIPS 6.02 language in PalymSys(TM) 2.0. These include: (1) a dynamic Dempster-Shafer belief network whose structure is completely specifiable at run-time in the consequent of a PalymSys(TM) rule, (2) extension of the run command including a continuous run feature that enables the system to run even when the agenda is empty, and (3) a built-in communications link that uses shared memory to communicate with other independent processes.

Bryson, Travis↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of Story Maps to Enhance Public Engagement and Communication at Legacy Management Sites - 17334

The US Department of Energy's Office of Legacy Management's (LM) mission is to fulfill the department's post-closure responsibilities and to ensure protection of human health and the environment. Accomplishing that mission currently requires managing 91 legacy sites across the country by performing efficient long-term surveillance and maintenance activities, preserving and making accessible historic site records, and identifying opportunities for beneficial reuse. Integral to the success of these activities is connecting and effectively communicating with the public, governments, and other interested parties. Relationships with such entities are so important that the Office of Legacy Management has elevated such engagement to one of its strategic goals for the next 10 years. Several public engagement efforts are currently supported, including stakeholder meetings, interpretive visitor centers, hard-copy documents, and Internet-based information sources. The tools available to communicate with the public via the Internet are continually improving, and LM proactively evaluates these tools to enhance public engagement. The use of ESRI Story Maps to effectively and more succinctly communicate LM's long-term surveillance and maintenance practices is one tool currently being evaluated. Story Maps can utilize multiple types of content to engage users through site narratives, illustrations of change over time, photos, videos, and embedded links to external sources of information. The ability to illustrate site complexities via graphics and geo-spatial data is particularly useful for staff as well as communicating to stakeholders. Staff with a variety of expertise and functions in the organization can be empowered to respond to stakeholder questions using this tool. In addition, Story Maps can be easily initiated and managed in real time by LM site managers, an efficiency that would be invaluable to them as immediate site communication needs arise. A series of test Story Maps for several sites were developed to explore the capabilities of the tool. The test Story Maps included pages that described site description and overview, historical conditions and use, cleanup conditions, current monitoring data if applicable, and institutional controls. Links to existing communications tools were also incorporated in Story Maps, such as existing web sites that currently store environmental reports and the Geo-spatial Environmental Mapping System (GEMS), where stakeholders can download monitoring data. As with any tool, many things must be taken into consideration, such as: 1) Can the current IT infrastructure support the tool? 2) What data quality protocols need to be established? 2) What resources will be needed to maintain this tool? 3) What type of information should be shared? 4) Who will be responsible for information updates? This paper explores potential approaches for developing and deploying this tool for the public. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Infrastructure-Based Cooperative Perception at a Traffic Intersection: Overview and Challenges

Traffic intersections are crucial and challenging nodes in transportation networks where multiple lanes of vehicles and pedestrians converge. About one-quarter of traffic fatalities and about one-half of all traffic injuries in the United States happen at traffic intersections . Effective management of these intersections is important to ensure safety and efficiency of all users - vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, and vulnerable road users (VRUs). With advancements in sensor perception technologies such as radar, light detection and ranging (lidar), and cameras, traffic intersections are developing into dynamic and data-rich environments. By using these data to create a real-time digital twin, we can enable real-time data-driven decision making and a range of applications such as sharing perception information to connected vehicles (CVs) and connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), safety affirmative signaling, and curb optimizing to improve efficiency and enhance safety.This paper presents an overview of the concept and examines the challenges involved in implementing an infrastructure-based cooperative perception engine at a traffic intersection. In addition to outlining the physical components, this study also addresses important challenges involved in a multi-sensor system. We present results from deploying the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) mobile trailer at a traffic intersection in the city of Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA that employed multiple radars and lidars to capture the data. This study provides necessary practical learning for the Cooperative Driving Automation (CDA) and traffic engineering communities for next-generation infrastructure-based cooperative perception that promises improvements in signal control for optimized traffic flow, among other applications, and documents findings for ongoing research and development efforts in other areas.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2015

A cesium copper vanadyl-diphosphate: Synthesis, crystal structure and physical properties

A non-centrosymmetric orthorhombic diphosphate, Cs{sub 2}Cu{sub 1+x}(VO){sub 2−x}(P{sub 2}O{sub 7}){sub 2} (x=0.1) with a=13.7364(2) Å, b=9.2666(2) Å, c=11.5678(2) Å, Z=4, has been isolated. Its 3D framework is built from Cu atoms in square pyramidal and square planar coordination, VO{sub 5} tetragonal pyramids and P{sub 2}O{sub 7} diphosphate groups, sharing vertices. Large channels are fulfilled by cesium atoms. The ESR study reveals a similarity in behaviour of two paramagnetic (Cu and V) subsystems. The temperature dependences of the ESR linewidth and static magnetic susceptibility data present evidences for a cluster type magnetic ordering in the title compound at T⁎=22 K. The weakness of the relevant anomalies reflects presumably obvious Cu{sup 2+} ions and (VO){sup 2+} units disorder in the system. It is supposed that the charge and geometry of the framework are controlled by the Cu{sup 2+}/(VO){sup 2+} ratio; its variation may lead to a design of new materials. - Graphical abstract: A microporous 3D anionic framework of the first copper vanadium-diphosphate Cs{sub 2}Cu{sub 1.1}(VO){sub 1.9}(P{sub 2}O{sub 7}){sub 2}. The similarity in behaviour of Cu and V paramagnetic subsystems revealed by ESR study. - Highlights: • The first copper vanadium-diphosphate Cs{sub 2}Cu{sub 1.1}(VO){sub 1.9}(P{sub 2}O{sub 7}){sub 2} is reported. • A 3D anionic framework is characterized by disorder in distribution of Cu and V atoms. • Structural relations with topologically similar compounds are discussed. • The similarity in behaviour of Cu and V paramagnetic subsystems has been revealed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

An indirect latent informational conformity social influence choice model: Formulation and case study

The current state-of-the-art in social influence models of travel behavior is conformity models with direct benefit social influence effects. Indirect effects have seen limited development, but this paper presents a latent class discrete choice model of an indirect informational conformity hypothesis. Moreover, class membership depends on the proportion of group members who adopt a behavior. Membership into the more informed class causes changes in the preferences of those individuals thus making adoption more attractive. Equilibrium properties are derived for this model showing the possibility of multiple equilibria but under different conditions than the direct-benefit formulations. Social influence elasticity is derived for both models types. The informational conformity model can represent non-linear elasticity behavior unlike the direct-benefit formulation. Additionally, a two-stage control function is developed to obtain consistent parameter estimates in the presence of an endogenous class membership model covariate that is correlated with choice model unobservables. A case study to study social influence in bicycle ownership in the United States is presented. Our results showed that more informed households had a greater chance of owning a bike due to preference changes with less sensitivity to smaller home footprints and limited incomes. The behavioral hypothesis of positive preference change due to information transfer was confirmed. Observed ownership share closely matched predicted local-level equilibrium in some metropolitan areas but was unable to achieve expected prediction rate within confidence intervals. Finally, the elasticity of social influence was found to range locally from about 0.5% to 1.0%.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Experimental characterization of quantum correlated triple beams generated by cascaded four-wave mixing processes

Quantum correlations and entanglement shared among multiple modes are fundamental ingredients of most continuous-variable quantum technologies. Recently, a method used to generate multiple quantum correlated beams using cascaded four-wave mixing (FWM) processes was theoretically proposed and experimentally realized by our group [Z. Qin et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 023602 (2014)]. Our study of triple-beam quantum correlation paves the way to showing the tripartite entanglement in our system. Our system also promises to find applications in quantum information and precision measurement such as the controlled quantum communications, the generation of multiple quantum correlated images, and the realization of a multiport nonlinear interferometer. For its applications, the degree of quantum correlation is a crucial figure of merit. In this letter, we experimentally study how various parameters, such as the cell temperatures, one-photon, and two-photon detunings, influence the degree of quantum correlation between the triple beams generated from the cascaded two-FWM configuration.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary design of a helium cryogenic system for SAND detector at LBNF-DUNE near site

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) is providing a helium cryogenic system to support the superconducting solenoid magnet of the System for on-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Near Site at Fermilab in Batavia, IL. The design started in 2020 and construction is set to begin in the mid 2020‘s.The helium cryogenic system primarily consists of a helium refrigerator system, distribution valve boxes, vacuum-jacketed helium and nitrogen transfer lines, warm gaseous helium transfer system, instruments and control system, and gaseous helium storage tanks. It is designed to provide supercritical helium at around 3 bara and 5 K with expansion from 3 to 1.2 bara in the SAND cryostat and 70K forced cold gas helium to cool the thermal shields of the SAND cryostat. The SAND superconductive magnet is indirectly cooled through a liquid helium thermosiphon cycle. A pair of 3 kA leads is cooled by the gas helium vaporized from the liquid helium reservoir in the cryostat turret. The helium system will share the liquid nitrogen tank and liquid nitrogen phase separator with the Near Site Liquid Argon system. The helium recycle compressor system, GHe tanks and LN2 tank will be located on the Surface. The cryogenic facilities including refrigerator cold box, valve boxes and LN2 phase separator will be located on the shaft cryo-mezzanine in the underground cavern. The shaft connecting surface and cavern is more than 60 meter deep. The helium vacuum-jacketed transfer line between the cold box and the SAND magnet is more than 50 meter long. This paper presents the preliminary design of the helium cryogenic system including the design scheme, process flow diagram, heat load estimates, layout plan and so on.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Self-Security for Grid-Interactive Smart Inverters Using Steady-State Reference Model

Smart inverters exchange information with other devices through a shared communication link, making the inverters more prone to receive harmful commands from external parties. This erroneous data can be received due to an anomaly in the system, such as a device fault, unintentional utility operator action, or a cyber-attack. In this paper, a device-level self-security strategy is implemented using reference models for a grid-interactive inverter to examine the incoming power setpoints, detect the anomalies, and protect the system accordingly. The PQ setpoints received from the utility supervisory controller are autonomously examined using the inverter’s normal and stable operating regions before engaging the setpoints to the inverter’s local controller. Grid parameters are estimated in real-time during the examination process. The efficacy of the self-security algorithm is tested using a three-phase 3-kVA SiC-MOSFET inverter and a 12-kW NHR 9410 regenerative grid emulator. The results verify that the proposed method can detect harmful PQ setpoints that can cause abnormal or unstable inverter operation.

Gursoy, Mehmetcan↗

DOE OSTI2014

MO-C-BRD-01: SBRT I: Overview of Simulation, Planning, and Delivery

SBRT is having a dramatic impact on radiation therapy of early-stage, locally advanced cancers. Treatment planning of SBRT is characterized by precise target volume delineation, highly conformal dose distribution, sharp dose gradient outside the target volume, and meticulous tumor motion management. Stringent dose volume constraints of SBRT require the treatment planning to be highly personalized. Not only the complete patient's medical information (anatomy, tumor size/shape/location/motion, breathing pattern, health status) should be taken into consideration during planning, but also a wide range of factors including imaging techniques (imaging modality, breathing control, immobilization, patient position, etc.), treatment planning techniques (3D-conformal, dynamic conformal arcs, IMRT, VMAT, etc.), image guidance techniques (CBCT, orthogonal X-Ray, fiducial marker tracking, fluoroscopy, etc.), and delivery techniques (FFF, gating, tracking, etc.). In addition, potential pitfalls may exist in SBRT techniques and processes, such as target volume error in 4DCT and image registration error in image guidance. How to manage these affecting factors to achieve optimal, personalized SBRT treatment plans remains a great challenge. In this proposal, we will review technologies, share experiences, and discuss strategies concerning SBRT simulation, planning, and delivery. Learning Objectives: Understand requirements and challenges of SBRT treatment planning Discuss information-driven strategies of developing optimal SBRT plans Discuss practical considerations and potential pitfalls of SBRT treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting information for Few-Shot Learning Enables Population-Scale Analysis of Leaf Traits in Populus trichocarpa

In this work, we use few-shot learning to segment the body and vein architecture of P. trichocarpa leaves from high-resolution scans obtained in the UC Davis common garden. Leaf and vein segmentation are formulated as separate tasks, in which convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are used to iteratively expand partial segmentations until reaching stopping criteria. Our leaf and vein segmentation approaches use just 50 and 8 manually traced images for training, respectively, and are applied to a set of 2,634 top and bottom leaf scans. We show that both methods achieve high segmentation accuracy, in some cases exceeding even human-level segmentation. The leaf and vein segmentations are subsequently used to extract 68 morphological traits using traditional open-source image processing tools, which are validated using real-world physical measurements. For a biological perspective, we perform a genome-wide association study using the vein density trait to discover novel genetic architectures associated with multiple physiological processes relating to leaf development and function. In addition to sharing all of the few-shot learning code (see https://github.com/jlager/few-shot-leaf-segmentation), we are releasing all images, manual segmentations, model predictions, 68 extracted leaf phenotypes, and a new set of SNPs called against the v4 P. trichocarpa genome for 1,419 genotypes. The data folder includes all images, ground truth segmentations, predicted segmentations, and extracted leaf traits. All images encode the sample ID in the file name by indicating the treatment, block, row, position, and leaf side, respectively. For example, the file, C_1_1_2_bot.jpeg, indicates the control treatment, block 1, row 1, position 2, and the bottom side of the leaf. Tabulated results include position IDs as well as the corresponding genotype IDs. The images folder includes the 2,906 high-resolution leaf scans taken in the field. The leaf_masks folder includes 50 ground truth segmentations used for training the leaf tracing algorithm. The leaf_preds folder includes the 2,906 predicted segmentations from the leaf tracing algorithm. The vein_masks folder includes 8 ground truth segmentations used for training the vein growing algorithm. The vein_preds folder includes the 1,453 predicted segmentations from the vein growing algorithm. The vein_probs folder includes the 1,453 predicted probability maps from the vein growing algorithm before thresholding. The genomes folder includes the set of SNPs called against the v4 P. trichocarpa genome for 1,419 genotypes with a README file detailing the steps taken. The results folder includes: (i) raw values of the 68 predicted leaf traits in digital_traits.tsv, (ii) manually measured values of petiole length and width in manual_traits.tsv, (iii) thin plate spline (TPS) adjusted values of the vein density trait in vein_density_tps_adj.tsv, (iv) best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) adjusted values of the vein density trait in vein_density_blups.tsv, and (v) GWAS results for the vein density trait, including chromosome positions and corresponding P values, in gwas_results.csv.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Conceptual Design of a Departure Planner Decision Aid

Terminal area Air Traffic Management handles both arriving and departing traffic. To date, research work on terminal area operations has focused primarily on the arrival flow and typically departures are taken into account only in an approximate manner. However, arrivals and departures are highly coupled processes especially in the terminal airspace, with complex interactions and sharing of the same airport resources between arrivals and departures taking place in practically every important terminal area. Therefore, the addition of automation aids for departures, possibly in co-operation with existing arrival flow automation systems, could have a profound contribution in enhancing the overall efficiency of airport operations. This paper presents the conceptual system architecture for such an automation aid, the Departure Planner (DP). This architecture can be used as a core in the development of decision-aiding systems to assist air traffic controllers in improving the performance of departure operations and optimize runway time allocation among different operations at major congested airports. The design of such systems is expected to increase the overall efficiency of terminal area operations and yield benefits for all stakeholders involved in Air Traffic Management (ATM) operations, users as well as service providers.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗