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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
NASA NTRS1993

The importance of properties in modeling

Casting and welding of superalloys, stainless steel and titanium alloys are processes which can be improved through modeling of heat flow, fluid flow, residual stress development, and microstructural evolution. These simulations require inputs of thermophysical data, some of which involves the partially or totally liquid state. In particular, these processes involve melting, flow in the liquid, and solidification. Modeling of such processes can lead to an improved understanding of defects such as shrinkage, inclusions, cracks, incomplete filling (or penetration), macrosegregation, improper grain structure, and deviations from dimensional specifications. Effective modeling can shorten process development time and improve quality. An approach to these problems is to develop efficient models; validate through correlations with thermal, distortion, and microstructural data; run parametric studies; extract knowledge based rules; and apply to adaptive closed loop control systems. With the appropriate pre- and post-processing, such analyses can be made 'user friendly'. This would include graphical user interfaces as well as realistic images and color maps. In such form, these models can be used for sensitivity analyses, which are useful in defining appropriate sensors and in the development of control strategies. Such modeling can be done at several levels, e.g., the MARO level, modeling large scale phenomena such as heat and fluid flow or material deformation; the MICRO level, modeling the development of dendrites, grains or precipitates; or at the NANO level, modeling point defects, dislocations, stacking faults, etc. There are many computational issues associated with these simulations, e.g. computational efficiency and accuracy. In addition, there are many materials issues, not the least of which is the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data for complex alloys. This would include latent heat of fusion, temperature dependent heat capacity and thermal conductivity (for liquid and solid), viscosity, surface tension, thermal expansion, mechanical properties, etc. Preliminary data is frequently gathered from the literature; however, this is often not available for modern alloys. If additional data are required, measurements can be used; however, these are costly, time consuming and can be erroneous due to a lack of testing standards or impure materials. Microstructural predictors can be extracted from thermal information, e.g. cooling rate and thermal gradient; the prediction of microstructure is dependent on solidus and liquidus temperature, mushy zone permeability, the solidification curve, volume changes, phase transformations, alloying effects (such as surface tension or viscosity), mold/metal reactions, metal/environment reactions, etc. Defect maps may be needed to predict the onset of shrinkage, hot cracking or 'freckling'. Constants may be needed for stress relaxation, dendrite coarsening, vaporization, etc. Visualization was used as a tool to better comprehend complex data sets associated with the analysis of directional solidification (including crystal growth) and welding. Examples include not only isotherms, but also cooling rate, growth rate and thermal gradient. The latter two are not single valued scalars, but rather time and space dependent vector fields. Efficient models were developed for both casting and welding to predict heat flow and the relationship to dendrite and grain growth. These codes include many of the non-linear effects, e.g. radiation, which dominate these processes. The home-built FDM code(s) were designed to be useful not only to the scientist, but also to the process engineer. Special output can be requested to compare directly to experimental data. Visualization procedures were developed to visualize critical results, e.g. fusion zone width at the surface opposite that where the arc is applied ('penetration'). Both elaborate and simplified distortion analyses were carried out. It is clear that extensive mechanical property data are critical in order to accurately predict residual stress patterns. A scheme is currently being developed to integrate these modeling tools into a set of control algorithms; however, the success of this approach is critically dependent on the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data.

Giamei, A. F.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Methodology to predict annual yield losses and gains caused by solar module design and materials under field exposure

Solar cells and modules are usually optimized separately under standard test conditions (STC). However, the actual performance under field exposure depends on module design, installation and environmental conditions. This work therefore presents a methodology to predict the annual yield of crystalline silicon solar modules for varying module configurations and environments using a time step simulation approach. We define and quantify 12 effects that affect the annual module performance, starting with solar cells in air under STC to a complete module under realistic conditions. We consider the interaction of optical, thermal and electrical effects in the module and combine it with an angular, spectral and time resolved light source. The model enables understanding the impact of the module environment, such as regions with high wind speeds or high diffuse light, on the annual output of a particular module type. We validate our model with measured power and temperature data for crystalline silicon heterojunction solar cell modules and find an agreement of the annual yield within 0.7%. We quantify the annual gains and losses for this module and identify that major losses are caused by elevated operating temperatures (2.3%) and reflection losses at the front glass (2.6%). Critically, the coupling gains at the cell surface increase significantly by 1.5% when considering angular light irradiance compared to normal incidence. To conclude, we apply our Cell-to-Module-Yield method to a 72-cell mono-crystalline PERC module, where the main annual yield losses are caused by reflection at the front glass and ohmic losses in the connector ribbons.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agriculture’s Potential Regional Economic Contributions to the United States Economy When Supplying Feedstock to the Bio-Economy

The economic impact of obtaining biomass could become significant to U.S. rural economies via the establishment of a bioeconomy. In 2023, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory provided a road map to obtain over a billion tons of biomass for conversion to bioenergy and other products. Using information from this roadmap, this study estimates the potential positive and negative economic impacts that occur because of land use change, along with increased technological advances. This is achieved by using the input–output model, IMPLAN, and impacting 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis regions in the conterminous United States. Biomass included in the analysis comprises dedicated energy crops, crop residues, and forest residues. The analysis found that managing pastures more intensively could result in releasing land to produce dedicated energy crops on 30.8 million hectares, resulting in the production of 361 million metric tons of biomass. This, coupled with crop residues from barley, corn, oats, sorghum, and wheat (162 million metric tons), plus forest residues (41 million metric tons), provide 564 million dry metric tons of biomass. Assuming the price for biomass in 2023 dollars was USD 77 per dry metric-ton, this additional production results in an economic benefit for the nation of USD 619 billion, an increase from the Business As Is scenario (Baseline) of almost USD 100 billion per year, assuming a mature biomass industry. An additional 700,000 jobs are required to grow, harvest/collect, and transport the biomass material from the land.

ForSEAM↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity Analysis of an Experimental Breeder Reactor II Fuel Assembly

The Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) was selected as a candidate for a reactor physics benchmark evaluation due to its unique features and capabilities. In connection with the benchmark evaluation, the goal of this work was to perform a sensitivity analysis. The EBR-II was a sodium cooled, pool type, metal fueled, fast spectrum reactor. EBR-II operated from 1964 through 1994. It had a maximum heat output of 62.5 MW which could produce 20 MW of electricity. The design of EBR-II consisted of 637 hexagonal shaped, removable assemblies. The assemblies were divided into three regions: the core, an inner blanket, and an outer blanket. The core region contained assemblies with 91 fuel rods in each. The fuel was enriched uranium metal and was clad within stainless steel. The core region also included two safety assemblies and eight control assemblies with the difference being that these assemblies only contained 61 fuel rods. Additional assemblies in the core region included stainless steel dummies, half worth drivers, and experimental/instrumentation assemblies. The inner blanket region initially consisted of depleted uranium for fuel breeding, but was replaced, after proving the concept of breeding, with stainless steel reflectors for the purpose of irradiation. The outer blanket region consisted of depleted uranium. Figure 1 shows a cross section view of the EBR-II core layout. Each assembly was approximately 234 cm long with the uranium fuel section being 33 cm long. Above and below the fuel were stainless steel neutron reflectors. Additionally, orifices at the bottom of the assembly allowed for sodium coolant to flow upward, with larger holes in the subassemblies at the center where the greatest heat was produced. The core of EBR-II was enclosed by a stainless steel reactor vessel which was comprised of a radial shell, a lower grid plenum structure, and an upper reactor vessel cover that served as a neutron shield. Surrounding the reactor vessel radially were layers of graphite and borated graphite shielding. The entire assembly is submerged 3 meters in a pool of sodium. The pool contained up to 337,000 liters of sodium which was forced through the core and blanket regions using two centrifugal pumps that were also submerged within the sodium pool. The design of EBR-II included many safety features. The compatibility between the sodium and stainless steel prevented corrosion and therefore the risk of a radioactive release due to corrosion. The sodium coolant was kept at near atmospheric pressure which made any leak more controllable. The metal fuel, cladding, and coolant allowed for heat to be removed easily. The large volume of sodium allowed for heat to be absorbed without problems occurring. Lastly, the reactor would expand as temperature increased which would result in greater neutron leakage. This extra leakage caused a large negative temperature reactivity feedback which automatically shut the reactor down in case of an accident. EBR-II had unique capabilities which were proven during the Integral Fast Reactor initiative. This program lasted from 1984 to 1994. The goal of this program was to solve many of the perceived problems with nuclear energy through scientific means. The safety features of EBR-II were put to the test in April 1986. The tests simulated loss of reactor coolant flow and loss of a heat sink. For both of these tests, the reactor was at 100% power and was not scrammed. During both tests, the reactor shut itself down and achieved a safe steady state temperature all due to the design of the reactor. It was because of these tests that EBR-II was chosen for a reactor physics benchmark evaluation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical analysis on random quantum circuit sampling by Sycamore and Zuchongzhi quantum processors

Random quantum circuit sampling, a task to sample bit strings from a random quantum circuit, is considered a suitable benchmark task to demonstrate the outperformance of quantum computers even with noisy qubits. Recently, random quantum circuit sampling was performed on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits [Nature (London) 574, 505 (2019)] and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 qubits [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 180501 (2021)]. Here, we analyze and compare the statistical properties of the outputs of the random quantum circuit sampling by the Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors. Using the Marchenko-Pastur law of random matrices of bit strings and the Wasssertein distances between bit strings, we find that the statistical properties of Sycamore bit strings are quite different from those of Zuchongzhi bit strings, while both processors score similar values of linear cross-entropy fidelity for random circuit sampling. Some bit strings sampled by the Zuchongzhi processor pass the NIST random number tests while both Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors show similar patterns in the heat maps of bit strings. Zuchongzhi bit strings are much closer to classical uniform random bits than those of Sycamore. It is shown that the statistical properties of bit strings of both random quantum circuits change little as the depth of the random quantum circuits increases. Our findings raise a question about the computational reliability of noisy quantum processors because two quantum processors with similar noise levels and similar qubit structures produced statistically different outputs for the same random quantum circuit sampling.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Downscaling Solar Power Output to 4-Seconds for Use in Integration Studies: Preprint

High penetration renewable integration studies require solar power data with high spatial and temporal accuracy to quantify the impact of high frequency solar power ramps on the operation of the system. Our previous work concentrated on downscaling solar power from one hour to one minute by simulation. This method used clearness classifications to categorize temporal and spatial variability, and iterative methods to simulate intra-hour clearness variability. We determined that solar power ramp correlations between sites decrease with distance and the duration of the ramp, starting at around 0.6 for 30-minute ramps between sites that are less than 20 km apart. The sub-hour irradiance algorithm we developed has a noise floor that causes the correlations to approach ~0.005. Below one minute, the majority of the correlations of solar power ramps between sites less than 20 km apart are zero, and thus a new method to simulate intra-minute variability is needed. These intra-minute solar power ramps can be simulated using several methods, three of which we evaluate: a cubic spline fit to the one-minute solar power data; projection of the power spectral density toward the higher frequency domain; and average high frequency power spectral density from measured data. Each of these methods either under- or over-estimates the variability of intra-minute solar power ramps. We show that an optimized weighted linear sum of methods, dependent on the classification of temporal variability of the segment of one-minute solar power data, yields time series and ramp distributions similar to measured high-resolution solar irradiance data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2005

Rotordynamic Analysis and Feasibility Study of a Disk Spin Test Facility for Rotor Health Monitoring

Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated a program to achieve the significant improvement in aviation safety. One of the technical challenges is the design and development of accelerated experiments that mimic critical damage cases encountered in engine components. The Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Group at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is currently addressing the goal concerning propulsion health management and the development of propulsion system specific technologies intended to detect potential failures prior to catastrophe. For this goal the unique disk spin simulation system was assembled at NASA GRC, which allows testing of rotors with the spinning speeds up to 10K RPM, and at the elevated temperature environment reaching 540 C (1000 F). It is anticipated that the facility can be employed for detection of Low Cycle Fatigue disk cracking and further High Cycle Fatigue blade vibration. The controlled crack growth studies at room and elevated temperatures can be conducted on the turbine wheels, and various NDE techniques can be integrated and assessed as in-situ damage monitoring tools. Critical rotating parts in advanced gas turbine engines such as turbine disks frequently operate at high temperature and stress for long periods of time. The integrity of these parts must be proven by non-destructive evaluation (NDE) during various machining steps ranging from forging blank to finished shape, and also during the systematic overhaul inspections. Conventional NDE methods, however, have unacceptable limits. Some of these techniques are time-consuming and inconvenient for service aircraft testing. Almost all of these techniques require that the vicinity of the damage is known in advance. These experimental techniques can provide only local information and no indication of the structural strength at a component and/or system level. The shortcomings of currently available NDE methods lead to the requirement of new damage detection techniques that can provide global information on the rotating components/system, and, in addition, they do not require direct human access to the operating system. During this period of research considerable effort was directed towards the further development of experimental facility and development of the vibration-based crack detection methodology for rotating disks and shafts. A collection of papers and reports were written to describe the results of this work. The attached captures that effort and represents the research output during the grant period.

Sawicki, Jerzy T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

"Source Term Modeling for Advanced Gas Micro-Reactors"

Maintaining the safety of the public, environment, and operating personnel is the most important factor in designing, operating, maintaining, and decommissioning nuclear reactors. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the development of micro-reactors employing TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel. In gas reactors, TRISO fuel plays an important role in the safety case for high temperature reactors because of the fission product retention properties of the fuel. This ability enables the use of a functional containment strategy for the reactor where multiple barriers are used to prevent fission product release to the environment. Part of the safety analysis of these advanced reactors is the assessment of radionuclide releases under normal and accident conditions through the multiple credited safety barriers. Using conservative assumptions, a mechanistic analysis can be performed to quantify these releases that combines the probabilistic assessment of failure with analytic solutions to radionuclide transport equations. Source term modeling for TRISO fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs; however, these models are outdated, in many cases proprietary, and need updates to be applied to the current state of TRISO fuel technology and alternative gas reactor core configurations [1]. Currently, the only publicly available source term assessment for gas reactors is an expert-based Monte Carlo simulation based on the effectiveness of the fuel kernel, coating layers, and graphite block in a modular high temperature gas reactor [2]. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that could be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. The release is calculated by the diffusion of the key safety important fission products through the kernel, silicon carbide (SiC), graphite for both intact and defective TRISO particles based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system to remove fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. The model then can calculate the fission product release for any transient temperature profile and fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO fuel development program. The model is coded in python with inputs and outputs in excel spreadsheets, as well as python plotting utilities to aid in the interpretation of the results. References: [1] INL, NGNP Mechanistic Source Term White Paper, INL-10-17997, July 2010. [2] David A. Petti, Richard R. Hobbins, Peter Lowry, Hans Gougar, “Representative Source Terms and The Influence of Reactor Attributes on Functional Containment in Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors,” Nuclear Technology, Vol. 184, p. 181-197, Nov. 2013.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Testing of a Moving-Bed Gasifier Using Coal, Biomass, and Waste Plastic Blends with Washed and Unwashed Legacy Coals and Other Waste Fuels to Generate White Hydrogen

The objective of this effort, primarily funded by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), and led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Hamilton Maurer International (HMI) and Sotacarbo S.p.A. (Sotacarbo), has been to qualify coal, biomass, and plastic waste blends based on performance testing of selected fuel pellet compositions in a pilot-scale updraft moving-bed (UDMB) gasifier. The testing provided relevant data to advance the commercial-scale design of the moving-bed gasifier to be able to successfully use these feedstocks to produce hydrogen. In particular, the effects of waste plastics on feedstock development (i.e., blending and pelletizing) and the resulting products (i.e., syngas compositions, organic condensate production, and ash characteristics) are the focus. The gasifier used for testing is HMI’s moving-bed gasifier, which has been proven capable of gasifying nearly all coal ranks. It has also shown the ability in prior testing work to gasify wood chips (biomass). However, mixtures of these fuels with plastic wastes have not been prepared and gasified together. The three feedstocks were densified and pelletized by California Pellet Mill (CPM) to meet the feedstock size required by Sotacarbo’s 30mm ID UDMB gasifier, under contract to HMI. The technical tasks and results from this two-year research project included: (1) Feed Procurement and Preparation: Nine different tri-fuel pellets were prepared from varying compositions of fresh mined PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and car fluff waste plastics. Tri-fuel pellets were produced by CPM and shipped to Sotacarbo’s test facility in Carbonia, Sardinia, Italy. (2) Test Plan Development: A test plan was created to define the test runs to be performed. The test plan detailed the different UDMB gasification tests to be performed in Sotacarbo’s 12-inch ID pilot scale gasifier, the process monitoring instrumentation used, and the extractive samples recovered for analysis of the total gasification process mass and energy balance. (3) Gasifier Testing: Nine different gasification runs were performed in the pilot-scale gasifier at Sotacarbo using nine different fuel feedstock compositions generated from varying mixtures of PRB coal, biomass, and plastic wastes. The testing generated performance data on gasification reaction efficiency and performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design. This task also included work to refurbish and reassemble the pilot gasifier at Sotacarbo and perform a baseline 100% PRB coal run. (4) Data Analysis and Reporting: Review of the data, determination of figures of merit, and interpretation of the results are reported in the project’s final report, published in March 2024. The results show that all tri-fuel pellets gasified well and maintained structural integrity throughout the gasification process. The syngas generated can be shifted to hydrogen by using commercial syngas shifting technologies. (5) High Fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Simulation: The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) team performed CFD simulations of the UDMB gasifier for two of the tri-fuel pellets gasified in Sotacarbo’s pilot scale gasifier. The kinetic mechanisms for the pyrolysis of each constituent, PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and waste plastics are based on thermogravimetric analysis performed by Sotacarbo. The gasification model was validated by comparing the predicted syngas composition at the exit of the gasifier with the measured syngas composition. In addition, the reactor’s measured internal temperature profile agreed well with the predicted internal reactor temperature profile. These results validate that the model can be used to predict the performance of the updraft moving bed gasifier for different feedstocks and operating conditions. This paper summarizes the results of the completed work in which the pelletizing procedure was validated to ensure the viability of the tri-fuel pellets for the gasification runs performed at Sotacarbo’s 30 mm UDMB gasifier. The gasification performance data from this series of nine runs will enable modeling of a full-scale HMI industrial scale gasifier supporting both combined heat and power, and Hydrogen production from coal (both fresh mined and legacy) combined with various biomass and waste plastics. Additionally, plans and progress on a follow-up project, being executed by the same project team, will be presented. In this project, a total of twenty (20) different feedstocks are being prepared from varying compositions of biomass (both woody biomass and corn stover) with a mixture of legacy coal waste, plastic waste, and refuse-derived fuel (RDF). The testing will provide information on gasification reaction efficiency/performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design to 50 megawatt electric (MWe) (equivalent hydrogen production). Tests will also be performed on a bench-scale fluidized-bed gasifier for comparison purposes. The results of this testing will be used to specify the range of feedstock blends that can be successfully gasified as well as quantify gasifier outputs based on specific blends.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance and Commissioning of the BigBite Timing Hodoscope for Nucleon Form Factor Measurements at Jefferson Lab

The BigBite Timing Hodoscope detector is the primary subject of this thesis. The Super BigBite Spectrometer is a Jefferson Lab Hall A Collaboration project that has and will continue to measure nucleon electromagnetic form factors. This spectrometer includes the Timing Hodoscope which provides high resolution particle timing data for scattered electrons in the electron arm of BigBite. The Timing Hodoscope utilizes 90, 25 × 25 × 600 mm3 scintillator bars stacked on top of each other to form a single detector plane, and these bars are connected to 180 photo-multiplier tubes via light guides. Particles collide with the scintillating material creating a shower of optical photons and these particle events in the bars are collected to generate signals that are readout by the data acquisition (DAQ) electronics. NINO ASIC amplifier-discriminator cards output signals from the photo-multiplier tubes into analogue and logic signals, which are sent to analogue-to-digital (ADC) and time-to-digital (TDC) converter data acquisition readout modules. This data is then used for analysis of the detector. The focus of this thesis is the construction, commissioning, calibration, and performance of the BigBite Timing Hodoscope before and during the first of five nucleon electromagnetic form factor experiments at Jefferson Lab Hall A. Before the neutron magnetic form factor, G n M, experiment, cosmic ray data was collected during commissioning to confirm proper operation of the Timing Hodoscope electronics by observing the ADC and TDC data. Commissioning studies for charge normalization, gain matching, and other ADC and TDC detector data variables were performed before moving the detector into Hall A. Following installation in Hall A, several calibration studies were implemented to fine-tune the detector in preparation for use in the experiment. The calibration studies included analysis of timing cuts, TDC alignment, the time-walk effect, time difference offsets, and scintillator velocity corrections. Once the Timing Hodoscope was well-calibrated, data-taking during the experiment commenced and the beam-on-target data was used to characterize the Timing Hodoscope performance during the G n M experiment run-time. The performance analysis included studies observing energy deposit, cluster size, rates, accidentals, pile-up, tracking efficiency, position resolution, and time resolution. After application of physics cuts to ensure a data set comprised of particle tracks corresponding to elastic electrons, which is the main data of interest for measurement of G n M, the Timing Hodoscope is shown on average across all kinematic settings to have a >98% tracking efficiency, a position resolution of 4-6 cm in the non-dispersive plane and 1.5-2 cm in the dispersive plane, and a time resolution of 500-750 ps. These performance results are compared to a GEANT4 based performance simulation of the BigBite Timing Hodoscope for reference, showing to what degree the measured performance values match those taken from the simulation.

Marinaro, Ralph↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Earth science (ES) digital twins will help us understand the complex interactions and interrelationships that make up our Earth system and the impacts of earth science phenomena on it. Our work addresses two underdeveloped areas in current ES digital twin work: improving the understanding and interaction with ES model outputs by using Virtual and Mixed Reality (XR) tools and improving the non-intuitive mapping of continuous ES natural phenomena to gridded reference frames in current numerical models. Traditionally, scientists working on ES view and analyze the results of calculated or measured observables with static 1-dimensional (1D), 2D or 3D plots displayed on flat computer screens or paper. Using such limited mediums, it can be very difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. In addition, numerical models, such as the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ES model, are almost exclusively formulated, visualized and analyzed in an Eulerian reference frame with fixed grid points in space and time. However, ES phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes are visualized and analyzed in a Lagrangian reference frame: therefore it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in relation to each other, visualized either in an Eulerian or Lagrangian context. In 3D visualizations, data generally takes one of three forms: gridded (e.g., voxelized) data, where space is divided into regions; point clouds, where data is represented as a set of points; and meshes, where objects are rendered as surfaces composed of small polygons (usually triangles). A gridded, Eulerian reference frame has been the default representation for the 2D visual analysis of atmospheric data in part because the numerical methods used to generate atmospheric model data in the first place use a gridded approach, with equations defining the relationships between the physical variables in each of a grid's cells across successive timesteps. In our work, we are particularly interested in data from GEOS. Another reason why gridded representations tend to be used for visualizing data from such models is because trajectories are difficult to interpret from representations on 2D surfaces, due to line-of-sight ambiguity. Instead of a fixed grid from GEOS, we embed a trajectory model to simulate particles' movement throughout a GEOS run. We then ingest these particle trajectories as animated point clouds with a NASA open source XR toolkit, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), and merge GEOS data with ES phenomena data onto one combined visualization that the user can intuitively interact with. Efficient rendering of arbitrarily large point clouds is an ongoing challenge being addressed by the computer science community, with the GPU-based optimizations and efficient GPU memory utilization a common theme of recent advances, especially for XR, where sustained high frame rate is mandatory to save the user from suffering due to simulation sickness. In this work, we describe and evaluate our progress in choosing and implementing appropriate methods for rendering arbitrarily large point clouds within MRET for XR. While tracking the XR headset enables the immersion of a user within a 3D scene of a data visualization, tracking of XR handheld controllers or user’s hands enables us to implement intuitive user interactions with the visualized datasets. Conventional tools require a user working with an ES visualization to conduct many interactions to commit their intended selections or manipulations with a visualized dataset; for example to specify a set of points in 3D space. Doing so in a 2D flat screen interface has traditionally required specifying a set of points in three distinct 2D coordinate systems (XY, XZ, and YZ), which is cumbersome. In other scientific domains, it has been shown that specifying or selecting a location or volume in XR using handheld controllers or tracked hands allows for greater speed and accuracy. We anticipate the same will hold true for atmospheric data, and we will share initial results of measuring the utility of such an interface. Notably, as the data being visualized is generated by GEOS as a prediction based on initial conditions, an intended application of our tool is to serve as part of an iterative feedback loop. Through XR, a scientist will review and manipulate a GEOS model run, modifying the conditions as needed to do subsequent runs of GEOS. Thereby, XR-based improvements to speed and accuracy of 3D tagging of points minimizes the effort required by both the scientist and the computer cluster conducting the necessary calculations.

Thomas Grubb↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Modelling Framework for Understanding the Impacts of Radioactive and Chemo-toxic Waste Disposals - 18199

In order to assess the compliance of a radioactive waste disposal facility against regulatory requirements, it is usual to develop a numerical model that provides estimates of quantities such as effective dose, radiological risk and environmental concentrations at times in the future after disposal of the wastes. An important aspect of a safety case based on the results of the numerical assessment model is to develop understanding and confidence in the results. This understanding includes determining why the magnitudes of the results are as they are, determining the key controlling parameters on the model outputs, providing confidence that the model outputs are credible, providing an alternative and complementary modelling approach, undertaking sensitivity analyses and facilitating communication of the safety case results with stakeholders. In this paper we present a modelling approach that addresses these issues for a wide range of disposal concepts. The approach captures the key processes that affect contaminant migration and transport, and uses analytical solutions to provide insight and understanding about the behaviour of a disposal system. The approach has been tested against a wide range of concepts for LLW, ILW, HLW and SF. In all cases, agreement with the results from numerical assessment models is found to be very good, with estimates of peak radiological risk and other metrics within a factor of two or better, compared with those from numerical assessment models. This agreement is achieved for assessment results that can potentially span many orders of magnitude. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Composite Analysis: LLBG-200-W B Vadose Zone Model

The objectives of the vadose modeling for the updated Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) are to simulate the flow and transport of water and radionuclide releases from the surface to the water table and to provide radionuclide transfer rates to the CA saturated zone model (CP-57037, Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Model, Version 8.3). Water additions include natural recharge and water discharged to the ground as a result of industrial processes associated with Hanford Site operations. Contaminant sources include radionuclides in water discharged to the ground during operations and radionuclides disposed “dry” in solid waste burial grounds or other means. The following 16 radionuclides were selected for this modeling effort: carbon-14 (C-14), chlorine-36 (Cl-36), tritium (H-3), iodine-129 (I-129), neptunium-237 (Np-237), rhenium-187 (Re-187), strontium-90 (Sr-90), technetium-99 (Tc-99), uranium-232 (U-232), uranium-233 (U-233), uranium-234 (U-234), uranium-235 (U-235), uranium-236 (U-236), uranium-238 (U-238), radium-226 (Ra-226), and thorium-230 (Th-230). The simulation time starts in 1943 and ends at 12070, which is 10,000 years after assumed Hanford Site closure in 2070. The parallel version of the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP 1 ) simulator, officially named the exascale Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (eSTOMP), is used to simulate flow and transport for the vadose models. The documentation for the STOMP code is comprehensive. The theoretical and numerical approaches applied in the STOMP code are documented in a published theory guide (PNNL-12030, STOMP Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases Version 2.0 Theory Guide). The code has undergone a rigorous verification procedure against analytical solutions, laboratory-scale experiments, and field-scale demonstrations. The application guide (PNNL-11216, STOMP Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases Application Guide) provides instructive examples in the application of the code to classical groundwater problems. The user’s guide (PNNL-15782, STOMP: Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases Version 4.0: User’s Guide) describes the general use, input file formatting, compilation, and execution of the code. The primary output of the vadose zone modeling is radionuclide transfer rates to the groundwater for input into the saturated zone model. The rates will be summed over the 100 by 100 m saturated zone model grid cells that fall within the vadose zone model source domain.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗