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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) Ice Nucleating Particle Measurements Field Campaign Report

Evidence exists that sea-spray-sourced ice nucleating particles (INPs) are organic in origin, resulting from biological and biochemical processes in seawater and the sea surface microlayer, and represent a distinctly different and variable, but oftentimes much less effective, INP population in comparison to long-range transported desert dust (DeMott et al. 2016; McCluskey et al. 2018a). Over the Southern Ocean (SO), far from land sources, these INPs may dominate in the marine boundary layer (McCluskey et al. 2018b). Thereby, marine INPs may affect cloud phase and lifetime in this region where pervasive supercooled and mixed-phase boundary-layer clouds appear underrepresented in climate models. This motivated collection of ice nucleating particle concentration measurements during the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) deployment of the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) on the Aurora Australis vessel from early November, 2017 (Austral spring) to late March, 2018 (Austral fall). During this period, four voyages were made from Hobart, Tasmania to the Australian Antarctic Division bases at Casey, Davis, and Mawson, as well as a final resupply cruise to Macquarie Island, the sight of the related Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign. Aerosol filter collections of alternating 24- and 48-hour duration were made during all voyages. These filters were returned frozen for subsequent processing to determine variability in the temperature spectrum of the concentrations of INPs active via the immersion freezing mechanism and to conduct additional analyses to indicate the chemical and biological nature of INPs over the SO. The MARCUS data set provides the first spatial and seasonal picture of INP concentrations over the SO in more than four decades, complementing the full annual cycle of INP data we collected for a point location in MICRE.

Ice nucleation, aerosols, arctic processes, marine↗
DOE OSTI2022

The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (S ppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of S ppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of S ppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of S ppt with different satellite products: S ppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest S ppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, S ppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in S ppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, S ppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in S ppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in S ppt . Our finding of the overall decline in S ppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed S ppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Beyond Taylor’s hypothesis: a novel volumetric reconstruction of velocity and density fields for variable‑density and shear flows

Abstract This work presents a novel numerical procedure for reconstructing volumetric density and velocity fields from planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) and stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (SPIV) data. This new method is theoretically and practically demonstrated to provide more accurate 3D vortical structures and density fields in high shear flows than reconstruction methods based on the mean convective velocity. While Taylor’s hypothesis of frozen turbulence is commonly applied by using the local mean streamwise velocity, the proposed algorithm uses the measured local instantaneous velocity for data convection. It consists of a step-by-step reconstruction based on a mixed Lagrangian–Eulerian solver that includes the 3D interpolation of scattered flow data and that relaxes the Taylor’s hypothesis by iterative enforcement of the incompressibility constraint on the velocity field. This methodology provides 3D fields with temporal resolution, spatial resolution, and accuracy comparable to that of real 3D snapshots, thus providing a practical alternative to tomographic measurements. The procedure is validated using numerical data of the constant-density channel flow available on the Johns Hopkins University Turbulence Database (JHTDB), showing the accurate reconstruction of the 3D velocity field. The algorithm is applied to an experimental dataset of PLIF and SPIV measurements of a variable-density jet flow, demonstrating its capability to provide 3D velocity and density fields that are more consistent with the Navier–Stokes equations compared to the mean flow convective method. Graphic abstract

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015–2030

This report describes a comprehensive effort undertaken by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to understand the cost of offshore wind energy for markets in the United States. The study models the cost impacts of a range of offshore wind locational cost variables for more than 7,000 potential coastal sites in U.S. offshore wind resource areas. It also assesses the impact of more than 50 technology innovations on potential future costs for both fixed-bottom and floating wind systems. Comparing these costs to an initial site-specific assessment of local avoided generating costs, the analysis provides a framework for estimating the economic potential for offshore wind. The analysis is intended to inform a broad set of stakeholders and enable an assessment of offshore wind as part of energy development and energy portfolio planning. It provides information that federal and state agencies and planning commissions could use to inform initial strategic decisions about offshore wind developments in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Stochastic multiscale flux basis for Stokes-Darcy flows

Three algorithms are developed for uncertainty quantification in modeling coupled Stokes and Darcy flows. The porous media may consist of multiple regions with different properties. The permeability is modeled as a non-stationary stochastic variable, with its log represented as a sum of local Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions. The problem is approximated by stochastic collocation on either tensor-product or sparse grids, coupled with a multiscale mortar mixed finite element method for the spatial discretization. A non-overlapping domain decomposition algorithm reduces the global problem to a coarse scale mortar interface problem, which is solved by an iterative solver, for each stochastic realization. In the traditional domain decomposition implementation, each subdomain solves a local Dirichlet or Neumann problem in every interface iteration. To reduce this cost, two additional algorithms based on deterministic or stochastic multiscale flux basis are introduced. The basis consists of the local flux (or velocity trace) responses from each mortar degree of freedom. It is computed for each subdomain independently before the interface iteration begins. The use of the multiscale flux basis avoids the need for subdomain solves on each iteration. The deterministic basis is computed at each stochastic collocation and used only at this realization. The stochastic basis is formed by further looping over all local realizations of a subdomain's KL region before the stochastic collocation begins. It is used over multiple realizations. Numerical tests are presented to illustrate the performance of the three algorithms, with the stochastic multiscale flux basis showing significant savings in computational cost compared to the other two algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating very-high-resolution imagery, Sentinel-2 time-series data, and machine learning to map shrub fractional abundance across arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China

Shrub fractional abundance (SFA), the proportion of shrub cover per unit area, serves as a critical indicator of environmental aridity and ecosystem health in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly across the Mongolian steppe. However, large-scale SFA mapping in Mongolian steppe ecosystems remains challenging due to the small crown size of shrubs, their sparse distribution, and spectral overlap with coexisting low vegetation (e.g., grasses and herbs), which hinders accurate detection using coarser-resolution satellite data or traditional field surveys. To address these challenges, we developed a two-step approach that integrates very-high-resolution (VHR) imagery, time-series Sentinel-2 data, and deep learning techniques. First, we generated high-accuracy benchmark maps of individual shrub crowns from 0.5 m VHR imagery by combining manual segmentation with a hybrid deep learning framework (Dino V2 and convolutional neural networks). Second, we used these shrub crown maps as training data to build an XGBoost model for predicting SFA from 20 m Sentinel-2 time-series data, leveraging phenological information to improve estimation. We validated our approach across 70 sites (1km 2 each) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which is representative of Mongolian steppe ecosystems. From VHR imagery, we mapped 1.31 million shrub crowns with an accuracy of R 2 = 0.92. Scaling up with Sentinel-2 data yielded regional SFA maps with an R 2 = 0.60. Further SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis on the developed XGBoost model revealed that phenological metrics (particularly observations in early-May, mid-July, and late-September), which distinguish shrub phenology from that of other land cover types (e.g., grasses and bare soil), were the most influential predictors of SFA. Finally, our regional SFA maps uncovered unimodal relationships between shrub distribution and climate variables, peaking at mean annual minimum temperatures near 0 °C and annual precipitation around 200 mm. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how the integration of multi-source remote sensing and machine learning can overcome historical limitations in SFA mapping, enabling accurate, spatially continuous assessments across vast Inner-Mongolian steppe ecosystems. Our framework has the potential to be applied to other steppe ecosystems and dryland ecosystems across the Mongolian steppe and beyond, offering a foundation for improved monitoring and ecological impact assessments in the face of global climate changes.

Arid and semi-arid landscapes↗
DOE OSTI2021

A vortex sheet based analytical model of the curled wake behind yawed wind turbines

Motivated by the need for compact descriptions of the evolution of non-classical wakes behind yawed wind turbines, we develop an analytical model to predict the shape of curled wakes. Interest in such modelling arises due to the potential of wake steering as a strategy for mitigating power reduction and unsteady loading of downstream turbines in wind farms. We first estimate the distribution of the shed vorticity at the wake edge due to both yaw offset and rotating blades. By considering the wake edge as an ideally thin vortex sheet, we describe its evolution in time moving with the flow. Vortex sheet equations are solved using a power series expansion method, and an approximate solution for the wake shape is obtained. The vortex sheet time evolution is then mapped into a spatial evolution by using a convection velocity. Apart from the wake shape, the lateral deflection of the wake including ground effects is modelled. Our results show that there exists a universal solution for the shape of curled wakes if suitable dimensionless variables are employed. For the case of turbulent boundary layer inflow, the decay of vortex sheet circulation due to turbulent diffusion is included. Finally, we modify the Gaussian wake model by incorporating the predicted shape and deflection of the curled wake, so that we can calculate the wake profiles behind yawed turbines. Model predictions are validated against large-eddy simulations and laboratory experiments for turbines with various operating conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Characterization of plasmonic hole arrays as transparent electrical contacts for organic photovoltaics using high-brightness Fourier transform methods

Here we present a methodology for probing light-matter interactions in prototype photovoltaic devices consisting of an organic semiconductor active layer with a semitransparent metal electrical contact exhibiting surface plasmon-based enhanced optical transmission. We achieve high-spectral irradiance in a spot size of less than 100 μm using a high-brightness laser-driven light source and appropriate coupling optics. Spatially resolved Fourier transform photocurrent spectroscopy in the visible and near-infrared spectral regions allows us to measure external quantum efficiency with high sensitivity in small-area devices (<1 mm 2 ). Lastly, this allows for rapid fabrication of variable-pitch sub-wavelength hole arrays in metal films for use as transparent electrical contacts, and evaluation of the evanescent and propagating mode coupling to resonances in the active layer.

laser-driven light source↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-resolving spin-wave microscopy using infrared strobe light

The need for sensitively and reliably probing magnetization dynamics has been increasing in various contexts such as studying novel hybrid magnonic systems, in which the spin dynamics strongly and coherently couple to other excitations, including microwave photons, light photons, or phonons. Recent advances in quantum magnonics also highlight the need for employing the magnon phase as quantum state variable, which is to be detected and mapped out with high precision in on-chip micro- and nanoscale magnonic devices. Here, in this study, we demonstrate a facile optical technique that can directly perform concurrent spectroscopic and imaging functionalities with spatial and phase resolutions, using infrared strobe light operating at 1550-nm wavelength. To showcase the methodology, we spectroscopically studied the phaseresolved spin dynamics in a bilayer of Permalloy and yttrium iron garnet Y 3 Fe 5 O 12 (YIG), and spatially imaged the backward-volume spin-wave modes of YIG in the dipolar spin-wave regime. Using the strobe light probe, the detected precessional phase contrast can be directly used to construct the map of the spin wave's wave front, in the continuous-wave regime of spin-wave propagation and in the stationary state, without needing any optical reference path. By selecting the applied field, frequency, and detection phase, the spin-wave images can be made sensitive to the precession amplitude and phase. Our results demonstrate that infrared optical strobe light can serve as a versatile platform for magneto-optical probing of magnetization dynamics, with potential implications in investigating hybrid magnonic systems.

Xiong, Yuzan [University of North Carolina, Chapel↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditional probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

UQ and V&V techniques applied to experiments and simulations of heated pipes pressurized to failure

This report demonstrates versatile and practical model validation and uncertainty quantification techniques applied to the accuracy assessment of a computational model of heated steel pipes pressurized to failure. The Real Space validation methodology segregates aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to form straightforward model validation metrics especially suited for assessing models to be used in the analysis of performance and safety margins. The methodology handles difficulties associated with representing and propagating interval and/or probabilistic uncertainties from multiple correlated and uncorrelated sources in the experiments and simulations including: material variability characterized by non-parametric random functions (discrete temperature dependent stress-strain curves); very limited (sparse) experimental data at the coupon testing level for material characterization and at the pipe-test validation level; boundary condition reconstruction uncertainties from spatially sparse sensor data; normalization of pipe experimental responses for measured input-condition differences among tests and for random and systematic uncertainties in measurement/processing/inference of experimental inputs and outputs; numerical solution uncertainty from model discretization and solver effects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meshfree Methods for Modeling Chemo-Mechanical Cathode Cracking in Li-Ion Batteries

Through repeated charging and discharging, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience cyclic loading causing swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries. Chemo-mechanical models are simulated mainly by two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that achieves both intermediate accuracy and computational time between a CDM and CZM. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

cathode cracking↗
DOE OSTI2023

Meshfree Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Li-ion Battery Materials

Through repeated charging and discharging cycles, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience significant swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries and material interfaces. Chemo-mechanical damage models are generally simulated by one of two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a coupled chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that enhances accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency. This model features a fully coupled, iterative electrochemistry solution, which informs the meshfree damage model of impending crack formation. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

damage modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE WISE LIGHT CURVES OF POLARS

We have extracted the WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) single-exposure data for a sample of 72 polars, which are highly magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs). We combine these data with both published and unpublished optical and infrared data to explore the origins of the large amplitude variations seen in these systems. In nearly every case, we find evidence for cyclotron emission in the WISE bandpasses. We find that the derived magnetic field strengths for some polars are either too high, or cyclotron emission from lower field components, located spatially coincident to the main accreting poles, must be occurring. We have also estimated field strengths for a number of polars where no such values exist. In addition, contrary to expectations, we find that emission from the fundamental cyclotron harmonic (n = 1) appears to be nearly always present when the magnetic field is of the appropriate strength that it falls within a WISE bandpass. We find that the light curves for RBS 490, an ultrashort-period (46 minutes) CV, suggest that it is a polar. Modeling its spectrum indicates that its donor star is much hotter than expected. Nearly all of the detected polars show 11.5 μm (“W3 band”) excesses. The general lack of variability seen in the W3 bandpass light curves for higher-field polars demonstrates that these excesses are probably not due to cyclotron emission. There is circumstantial evidence that these excesses can be attributed to bremsstrahlung emission from their accretion streams. Reduction of the Spitzer 24 μm image of V1500 Cyg shows that it appears to be located at the center of a small nebula.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

Executive Summary NOAA is making major contributions to the solar forecasting project in three areas. First, it is improving its forecasts of solar irradiance, clouds, and aerosols in its numerical weather prediction models. Second, it is providing advanced satellite products for DOE's FOA awardees to use in their forecast systems. Third, it is using high-quality ground-based measurements from SURFRAD and ISIS stations to verify and validate forecast model output. This reports covers results from all three areas for the period May 1, 2014 - April 30, 2015. Modeling In its modeling effort, NOAA continues work to improve the skill of solar forecasts from the Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) research versions of the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and the 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models, which are in turn transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A major milestone was achieved in September 2014 with the initial operational implementation of the HRRR at NCEP. In the ESRL research versions of the models, testing and development, in both real-time runs and retrospective experiments, is guided by an extensive in-house verification system. Early in the SFIP project, we developed the capability to verify our model forecasts against the high-quality surface radiation measurements from the SURFRAD and ISIS networks. This highlighted some shortcomings with the RAP and HRRR forecasts of incoming shortwave radiation. Most of our effort during Phase 1 of SFIP was focused on addressing these problems with a variety of model system improvements. The RAP and HRRR models during the warm season of 2014 had a noticeable warm and dry bias in near-surface conditions over most of the central and eastern United States, and our new SURFRAD/ISIS verification revealed that there was also a large excess of incoming global horizontal irradiance in the models. We hypothesized that a lack of cloud cover (particularly low-level cloud cover) in the models was resulting in too much heating of the land surface. This, in turn, caused unrealistically strong surface heat fluxes and turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which further reduced the already deficient cloud cover. We addressed these issues with a combination of data assimilation system modifications and model physics improvements. Many of our data assimilation changes were made with a view towards improving the near-term representation of clouds and precipitation. One of these changes involved better accounting for regions of weak reflectivity in the RAP cloud / hydrometeor assimilation system, in order to improve the representation of light precipitation in the RAP initial conditions and provide more realistic initial cloud cover. Additional modifications more accurately accounted for radar beam blockage and data gaps (particularly in the western United States), which improves shorter lead times forecasts of clouds and precipitation. We have also tested the assimilation of new data sources within the RAP and the HRRR, including radar radial velocity data and surface mesonet observations. Within the HRRR, we have tested the cycling of the 3-km land surface fields to allow a higher-resolution treatment of land surface processes. In terms of model physics development for SFIP, we have implemented a shallow cumulus scheme within the RAP, and have made numerous improvements to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme to address insufficient low-level cloud cover in the models. We have conducted tests incorporating the radiation effects of (parameterized) boundary-layer clouds within the modified MYNN PBL scheme (independent of the convective schemes). The Grell-Freitas-Olson shallow cumulus scheme has also been tested within the 3-km HRRR. Finally, we have also modified the RUC land surface model (LSM) treatment of the vegetation wilting point, reducing it to increase evapotranspiration and increase cloud cover in the boundary layer. All of these changes work in tandem to significantly improve the model forecasts of cloud cover, incoming shortwave radiation, and near-surface temperature and moisture. Satellite The role of NOAA/NESDIS in the Solar Forecasting Improvement Project is to provide Advanced Satellite Products (ASPs) for the two forecasting teams at NCAR and IBM. The ASPs are cloud, surface, and atmosphere products derived from geostationary satellite imagery at the highest possible spatial and temporal resolution - such quantities as cloud mask, cloud probability, cloud transmission, cloud top height, cloud top temperature, cloud effective particle size, etc. Ancillary data, such as elevation and numerical weather prediction fields are provided in the files at the same resolution as well. There are at this time 147 different variables in the ASP output, including quality flags and processing information. The main goals for Year 1 of the project were to implement an Advanced Satellite Products system for the use of the IBM and NCAR teams, begin validation, and make any needed changes based on feedback from the teams. ASP files are being produced every GOES Imager acquisition, which occur on a 15-30 minute schedule. Processing is done on a dedicated computer, with a turn-around time of 8-21 minutes from image acquisition to results available on ftp. Several helpful visualizations of the data are also created for users on web pages. Users have been provided with a document titled "User's Guide for 1km Cloud Products Derived from GOES Imager Data using CLAVR-x", which discusses the basics of the source imagery, the process by which it is turned into Advanced Satellite Products, and considerations users should make when using the data. Validation of selected variables from the older 4km version of the products was also included. Future work will concentrate on validation of the 1km products and improving the turn-around time, product variety, and product quality as needed. Ground Observations In the ground-based measurement effort, NOAA's main objectives are to provide high quality radiation products for validation and verification of short-term to day-ahead solar forecasts. More specifically for the three year project, our goals include (1) Maintaining and providing data from our 7 SURFRAD and 7 ISIS; (2) Update ISIS radiation measurements from 3 min to 1 min data: (3) Purchase and install new pyrheliometers for direct solar irradiance measurements at the 7 SURFRAD sites; (4) Building, testing, and deploying two mobile SURFRAD stations at two utility plants in collaboration with DOE sponsored partners, and includes ongoing maintenance and processing of the data at the mobile sites; (5) Upgrading the data acquisition and communications at 7 SURFRAD sites and 7 ISIS sites; (6) Providing radiation data at the 7 SURFRAD sites in near real-time; (7) Develop and provide aerosol optical depth and cloud images and cloud fraction at our two mobile sites; (8) Provide data recovery rates each year; (9) Provide temporally and spatially averaged radiation products for comparison to HRRR and RAP solar forecasts and advanced satellite products; (10) Provide a data-set for analysis of conversion of direct and diffuse to sloped surfaces; (11) and as time permits develop and provide spectral solar irradiance, cloud optical depth and spectral albedo from the mobile sites. Milestones this year include working with the DOE sponsored teams to find locations to deploy two mobile SURFRAD stations. One existing unit was deployed at a 30MW PV facility in the San Luis Valley in collaboration with Xcel and the NCAR team in August, 2014. The second unit was built and tested at our facilities in Boulder, CO and deployed near Green Mountain Power's Education Center in Rutland, VT in collaboration with Green Mountain Power and the IBM Team in October, 2014. Data processing was implemented and the radiation data from these two mobile sites have been made available on our ftp server in near real-time. We also are providing images and cloud fraction from the TSI cameras for these two mobile sites on our ftp site. Another milestone was upgrading our data acquisition and communication systems at 7 SURFRAD and 7 ISIS sites. We accelerated our schedule for these upgrades to provide timely radiation products. These upgrades allow more reliable and near-real time radiation data delivery to the DOE sponsored teams to meet their goals. Lastly, we changed the data rate at the ISIS sites from 3 min to 1 min.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

An adaptive tau-leaping method for stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion systems

Stochastic modelling is critical for studying many biochemical processes in a cell, in particular when some reacting species have low population numbers. For many such cellular processes the spatial distribution of the molecular species plays a key role. The evolution of spatially heterogeneous biochemical systems with some species in low amounts is accurately described by the mesoscopic model of the Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation. The Inhomogeneous Stochastic Simulation Algorithm provides an exact strategy to numerically solve this model, but it is computationally very expensive on realistic applications. We propose a novel adaptive time-stepping scheme for the tau-leaping method for approximating the solution of the Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation. This technique combines effective strategies for variable time-stepping with path preservation to reduce the computational cost, while maintaining the desired accuracy. The numerical tests on various examples arising in applications show the improved efficiency achieved by the new adaptive method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗