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Systemic effects of rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit on plant physiology and productivity

Abstract Earth is currently undergoing a global increase in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a trend which is expected to continue as climate warms. This phenomenon has been associated with productivity decreases in ecosystems and yield penalties in crops, with these losses attributed to photosynthetic limitations arising from decreased stomatal conductance. Such VPD increases, however, have occurred over decades, which raises the possibility that stomatal acclimation to VPD plays an important role in determining plant productivity under high VPD. Furthermore, evidence points to more far‐ranging and complex effects of elevated VPD on plant physiology, extending to the anatomical, biochemical, and developmental levels, which could vary substantially across species. Because these complex effects are typically not considered in modeling frameworks, we conducted a quantitative literature review documenting temperature‐independent VPD effects on 112 species and 59 traits and physiological variables, in order to develop an integrated and mechanistic physiological framework. We found that VPD increase reduced yield and primary productivity, an effect that was partially mediated by stomatal acclimation, and also linked with changes in leaf anatomy, nutrient, and hormonal status. The productivity decrease was also associated with negative effects on reproductive development, and changes in architecture and growth rates that could decrease the evaporative surface or minimize embolism risk. Cross‐species quantitative relationships were found between levels of VPD increase and trait responses, and we found differences across plant groups, indicating that future VPD impacts will depend on community assembly and crop functional diversity. Our analysis confirms predictions arising from the hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, outlines a systemic physiological framework of plant responses to rising VPD, and provides recommendations for future research to better understand and mitigate VPD‐mediated climate change effects on ecosystems and agro‐systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Offshore reanalysis wind speed assessment across the wind turbine rotor layer off the United States Pacific coast

Abstract. The California Pacific coast is characterized by considerable wind resource and areas of dense population, propelling interest in offshore wind energy as the United States moves toward a sustainable and decarbonized energy future. Reanalysis models continue to serve the wind energy community in a multitude of ways, and the need for validation in locations where observations have been historically limited, such as offshore environments, is strong. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns two lidar buoys that collect wind speed observations across the wind turbine rotor layer along with meteorological and oceanographic data near the surface to characterize the wind resource. Lidar buoy data collected from recent deployments off the northern California coast near Humboldt County and the central California coast near Morro Bay allow for validation of commonly used reanalysis products. In this article, wind speeds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are validated at heights within the wind turbine rotor layer ranging from 50 to 100 m. The validation results offer guidance on the performance and uncertainty associated with utilizing reanalyses for offshore wind resource characterization, providing the offshore wind energy community with information on the conditions that lead to reanalysis error. At both California coast locations, the reanalyses tend to underestimate the observed rotor-level wind resource. Occasions of large reanalysis error occur in conjunction with stable atmospheric conditions, wind speeds associated with peak turbine power production (> 10 m s−1), and mischaracterization of the diurnal wind speed cycle in summer months.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Global Geophysical Fluids Center of IERS

The Global Geophysical Fluids Center (GGFC) and its seven Special Bureaus (SB, for Atmosphere, Oceans, Tides, Hydrology, Mantle, Core and Gravity/Geocenter) were establishes by the International Earth Rotation Service in 1998, to support global geodynamic research. Mass transports in the geophysical fluids of the Earth system will cause observable geodynamic effects on a broad time scale.These include (1) variations in the solid Earth's rotation (in length-of-day and polar motion/nutation) via the conservation of angular momentum and effected by torques at the fluid-solid Earth interface; (2) changes in the global gravitational field according to Newton's gravitational law; and (3) motion in the center of mass of the solid Earth relative to that of the whole Earth ("geocenter") via the conservation of linear momentum. These minute signals have become observable by space geodetic techniques, primarily VLBI, SLR, GPS, and DORIS, and new exciting data will be available by space gravity, altimetry, SAR, and magnetic missions. In this sense the precise space geodetic techniques have become effective means of remote sensing of global mass transports. The GGFC and its SBs have the responsibility of supporting, facilitating, and providing services to the worldwide research community in the related research areas. We compute, analyze, compare, archive, and disseminate the time series of the angular momenta and the related torques, gravitational coefficients, and geocenter shift for all geophysical fluids, based on global observational data, and/or products from state-of-the-art models some of which assimilate such data. The computed quantities, algorithm and data formats are standardized. This paper reviews our activities, reports the status, and looks forward into the future.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Exoplanet Biosignatures: At the Dawn of a New Era of Planetary Observations

The rapid rate of discoveries of exoplanets has expanded the scope of the science possible for the remote detection of life beyond Earth. The Exoplanet Biosignatures Workshop-Without-Walls (EBWWW) held in 2016 engaged the international scientific community across diverse scientific disciplines, to assess the state of the science and technology in the search for life on exoplanets, and to identify paths for progress. The workshop activities resulted in five (5) major review papers which provide: 1) an encyclopedic review of known and proposed biosignatures and models used to ascertain them; 2) an in-depth review of O2 as a biosignature, rigorously examining the nuances of false positives and negatives for evidence of life; 3) a Bayesian framework to comprehensively organize current understanding to quantify confidence in biosignature assessments; 4) an extension of that Bayesian framework in anticipation of increasing planetary data and novel concepts of biosignatures, and 5) a review of the upcoming telescope capabilities to characterize exoplanets and their environment. Because of the immense content of these review papers, this summary provides a guide to their complementary scope and highlights salient features. Strong themes that emerged from the workshop were that biosignatures must be interpreted in the context of their environment, and that frameworks must be developed to link diverse forms of scientific understanding of that context to quantify the likelihood that a biosignature has been observed. Models are needed to explore the parameter space where measurements will be widespread but sparse in detail. Given the technological prospects for large ground-based telescopes and direct imaging from space-based observatories, the detection of atmospheric signatures of a few potentially habitable planets may come before 2030.

spectral imaging↗

Improving Scientific Capabilities in Space in the 21st Century: The NASA New Millennium Program

NASA's New Millennium Program (NMP) has been chartered to identify and validate in space emerging, revolutionary technologies that will enable less costly, more capable future science missions. The program utilizes a unique blend of science guidance and industry partnering to ferret out technology solutions to enable science capabilities in space which are presently technically infeasible, or unaffordable. Those technologies which present an unacceptably high risk to future science missions (whether small PI-led or operational) are bundled into technology validation missions. These missions seek to validate the technologies in a manner consistent with their future uses, thus reducing the associated risk to the first user, and obtaining meaningful science data as well. The Space Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment (SPARCLE) was approved as the second NMP Earth Observing mission (EO2) in October 1997, and assigned to Marshall Space Flight Center for implementation. Leading up to mission confirmation, NMP sponsored a community workshop in March 1996 to draft Level-1 requirements for a doppler wind lidar mission, as well as other space-based lidar missions (such as DIAL). Subsequently, a study group was formed and met twice to make recommendations on how to perform a comparison of coherent and direct detection wind lidars in space. These recommendations have guided the science validation plan for the SPARCLE mission, and will ensure that future users will be able to confidently assess the risk profile of future doppler wind missions utilizing EO2 technologies. The primary risks to be retired are: (1) Maintenance of optical alignments through launch and operations on orbit, and (2) Successful velocity estimation compensation for the Doppler shift due to the platform motion, and due to the earth's rotation. This includes the need to account for all sources of error associated with pointing control and knowledge. The validation objectives are: (1) Demonstrate measurement of tropospheric winds from space using a scanning coherent Doppler lidar technique that scales to meet future research (e.g. ESSP) and operational (e.g. NPOESS) mission requirements. Specifically, produce and validate LOS wind data with single shot accuracy of 1-2 m/s in regions of high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and low atmospheric wind turbulence and wind shear, (2) Collect the atmospheric and instrument performance data in various scanning modes necessary to validate and improve instrument performance models that will enable the definition of future missions with greater confidence. Such data include aerosol backscatter data over much of the globe, and high SNR data such as that from surface returns, and (3) Produce a set of raw instrument data with which advanced signal processing techniques can be developed. This objective will permit future missions to better understand how to extract wind information from low backscatter regions of the atmosphere.

Raymond, Carol A.↗

An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.

Case, Jonathan↗

MISR Observations of Etna Volcanic Plumes

In the last twelve years, Mt. Etna, located in eastern Sicily, has produced a great number of explosive eruptions. Volcanic plumes have risen to several km above sea level and created problems for aviation and the communities living near the volcano. A reduction of hazards may be accomplished using remote sensing techniques to evaluate important features of volcanic plumes. Since 2000, the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on board NASA s Terra spacecraft has been extensively used to study aerosol dispersal and to extract the three-dimensional structure of plumes coming from anthropogenic or natural sources, including volcanoes. In the present work, MISR data from several explosive events occurring at Etna are analyzed using a program named MINX (MISR INteractive eXplorer). MINX uses stereo matching techniques to evaluate the height of the volcanic aerosol with a precision of a few hundred meters, and extracts aerosol properties from the MISR Standard products. We analyzed twenty volcanic plumes produced during the 2000, 2001, 2002-03, 2006 and 2008 Etna eruptions, finding that volcanic aerosol dispersal and column height obtained by this analysis is in good agreement with ground-based observations. MISR aerosol type retrievals: (1) clearly distinguish volcanic plumes that are sulphate and/or water vapor dominated from ash-dominated ones; (2) detect even low concentrations of volcanic ash in the atmosphere; (3) demonstrate that sulphate and/or water vapor dominated plumes consist of smaller-sized particles compared to ash plumes. This work highlights the potential of MISR to detect important volcanic plume characteristics that can be used to constrain the eruption source parameters in volcanic ash dispersion models. Further, the possibility of discriminating sulphate and/or water vapor dominated plumes from ash-dominated ones is important to better understand the atmospheric impact of these plumes.

Scollo, S.↗

ForC: a global database of forest carbon stocks and fluxes

Forests play an influential role in the global carbon (C) cycle, storing roughly half of terrestrial C and annually exchanging with the atmosphere more than ten times the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by anthropogenic activities. Yet, scaling up from ground-based measurements of forest C stocks and fluxes to understand global scale C cycling and its climate sensitivity remains an important challenge. Tens of thousands of forest C measurements have been made, but these data have yet to be integrated into a single database that makes them accessible for integrated analyses. Here we present an open-access global Forest Carbon database (ForC) containing records of ground-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes, along with disturbance history and methodological information. ForC expands upon the previously published tropical portion of this database, TropForC (DOI: 10.5061/dryad.t516f), now including 17,538 records (previously 3568) representing 2,731 plots (previously 845) in 826 geographically distinct areas (previously 178). The database covers all forested biogeographic and climate zones, represents forest stands of all ages, and includes 89 C cycle variables collected between 1934 and 2015. We expect that ForC will prove useful for macroecological analyses of forest C cycling, for evaluation of model predictions or remote sensing products, for quantifying the contribution of forests to the global C cycle, and for supporting international efforts to inventory forest carbon and greenhouse gas exchange. A dynamic version of ForC-db is maintained at https://github.com/forc-db, and we encourage the research community to collaborate in updating, correcting, expanding, and utilizing this database.

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.↗

The Mega-MUSCLES Treasury Survey: X-Ray to Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions of a Representative Sample of M Dwarfs

We present 5–1 × 107 Å spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for 12 M dwarf stars covering spectral types M0–M8. Our SEDs are provided for community use as a sequel to the Measurements of the Ultraviolet Spectral Characteristics of Low-mass Exoplanetary Systems (MUSCLES) survey. The 12 stars include eight known exoplanet hosts and four stars chosen to fill out key parameter space in spectral type and rotation period. The SEDs are constructed from Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectroscopy and XMM Newton, Chandra, and/or Swift X-ray observations, and completed with various model data, including Lyα reconstructions, PHOENIX optical models, APEC coronal models, and differential emission measure models in the currently-unobservable extreme ultraviolet. We provide a complete overview of the Mega-MUSCLES program, including a description of the observations, models, and SED construction. The SEDs are available as MAST high-level science products and we describe the various data products here. We also present ensemble measurements from our sample that are of particular relevance to exoplanet science, including the high-energy fluxes in the habitable zone and the farultraviolet to near-ultraviolet ratio. Combined with MUSCLES, Mega-MUSCLES provides SEDs covering a wide range of M dwarf spectral types and ages such that suitable proxies for any M dwarf planet host of interest may be found in our sample. However, we find that ultraviolet and X-ray fluxes can vary even between stars with similar parameters, such that observations of each exoplanet host star will remain the gold standard for interpreting exoplanet atmosphere observations.

David J. Wilson↗

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗

Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet

Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.

Atmospheric science↗

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) andmethane (CH 4 ) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH 4 fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO 2 uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH 4 emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH 4 emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m –2 year –1 . In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO 2 changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m –2 year –1 to a source of 369.6 gCm –2 year –1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH 4 and the sink strength of CO 2 . Here, we conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH 4 fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric Water Balance and Variability in the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Closing and balancing Earths global water cycle remains a challenge for the climate community. Observations are limited in duration, global coverage, and frequency, and not all water cycle terms are adequately observed. Reanalyses aim to fill the gaps through the assimilation of as many atmospheric water vapor observations as possible. Former generations of reanalyses have demonstrated a number of systematic problems that have limited their use in climate studies, especially regarding low-frequency trends. This study characterizes the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) water cycle relative to contemporary reanalyses and observations. MERRA-2 includes measures intended to minimize the spurious global variations related to in homogeneity in the observational record. The global balance and cycling of water from ocean to land is presented, with special attention given to the water vapor analysis increment and the effects of the changing observing system. While some systematic regional biases can be identified,MERRA-2 produces temporally consistent time series of total column water and transport of water from ocean to land. However, the interannual variability of ocean evaporation is affected by the changing surface-wind-observing system, and precipitation variability is closely related to the evaporation. The surface energy budget is also strongly influenced by the interannual variability of the ocean evaporation. Furthermore, evaluating the relationship of temperature and water vapor indicates that the variations of water vapor with temperature are weaker in satellite data reanalyses, not just MERRA-2, than determined by observations, atmospheric models, or reanalyses without water vapor assimilation.

MERRA-2↗

Improved Madden–Julian Oscillations with Improved Physics: The Impact of Modified Convection Parameterizations

Two modifications are made to the deep convection parameterization in the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3): a dilute plume approximation and an implementation of the convective momentum transport (CMT). These changes lead to significant improvement in the simulated Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). With the dilute plume approximation, temperature and convective heating perturbations become more positively correlated. Consequently, more available potential energy is generated and the intraseasonal variability (ISV) becomes stronger. The organization of ISV is also improved, which is manifest in coherent structures between different MJO phases and an improved simulation of the eastward propagation of MJOs with a reasonable eastward speed. The improved propagation can be attributed to a better simulation of the low-level zonal winds due to the inclusion of CMT. The authors posit that the large-scale zonal winds are akin to a selective conveyor belt that facilitates the organization of ISVs into highly coherent structures, which are important features of observed MJOs. The conclusions are supported by two supplementary experiments, which include the dilute plume approximation and CMT separately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Mars Lidar (MARLI) for Measuring Wind and Aerosol Profiles from Orbit

Our understanding of the Mars atmosphere and the coupled atmospheric processes that drive its seasonal cycles is limited by a lack of observation data, particularly measurements that capture diurnal and seasonal variations on a global scale. As outlined in the 2011 Planetary Science Decadal Survey and the recent Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group(MEPAG) Goals Document, near-polar-orbital measurements of height-resolved aerosol backscatter and wind profiles area high-priority for the scientific community and would be valuable science products as part of a next-generation orbital science package. To address these needs, we have designed and tested a breadboard version of a direct detection atmospheric wind lidar for Mars orbit. It uses a single-frequency, seeded Nd:YAG laser ring oscillator operating at 1064nm (4 kHz repetition rate), with a 30-ns pulse duration amplified to 4 mJ pulse energy. The receiver uses a Fabry-Perotetalon as part of a dual-edge optical discrimination technique to isolate the Doppler-induced frequency shift of the back scattered photons. To detect weak aerosol backscatter profiles, the instrument uses a 4x4 photon-counting HgCdTeAPD detector with a 7 MHz bandwidth and < 0.4 fW/Hz(exp 1/2) noise equivalent power. With the MARLI lidar breadboard instrument, we were able to measure Doppler shifts continuously between 1 and 30 m/s by using a rotating chopper wheel to impart a Doppler shift to incident laser pulses. We then coupled the transmitter and receiver systems to a laser ranging telescope at the Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO) to measure backscatter and Doppler wind profiles in the atmosphere from the ground. We measured a 5.3 ± 0.8 m/s wind speed from clouds in the planetary boundary layer at a range of 4 to 6 km. This measurement was confirmed with a range-over-time measurement to the same clouds as well as compared to EMC meteorological models. Here we describe the lidar approach and the breadboard instrument, and report some early results from ongoing field experiments.

Cremons, Daniel R.↗