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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Cosmic Ray Experiments and the Implications for Indirect Detection of Dark Matter

Detection of cosmic-ray antiprotons was first reported by Golden et al. in 1979 and their existence was firmly established by the BESS and IMAX collaborations in the early 1990s. Increasingly precise measurements of the antiproton spectrum, most recently from BESS-Polar and PAMELA, have made it an important tool for investigating cosmic-ray transport in the galaxy and heliosphere and for constraining dark-matter models. The history of antiproton measurements will be briefly reviewed. The current status will be discussed, focusing on the results of BESS-Polar II and their implications for the possibility of antiprotons from primordial black hole evaporation. The current results of the BESS-Polar II antihelium search are also presented.

dark↗

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Solubility predictions for sodium nitrate from water activity for Hanford tank concentrates - 15551

Space in Hanford waste tanks is very limited and therefore active evaporation of tank liquids continues to provide a means to conserve tank space. Prior to each evaporator campaign, a boil-down of a sample of tank liquid provides a basis for planning by measuring density, solids precipitation, and water activity as a function of concentration and temperature. We have found these datasets also provide opportunities to validate and calibrate various solubility models on actual waste. Previous work has shown the solubilities of minor electrolytes in these five boil-downs follow rather simple power law solubility products. Each of five boil-downs concentrated liquids from five waste tanks and tank blends and have been reported from Hanford's 222-S laboratory. All concentrates eventually showed the precipitation of the dominant electrolyte, NaNO{sub 3}, and solution activity largely drives this solubility. Although there are many well established techniques for calculating solution activity, the complexity of Hanford electrolyte mixtures has proven challenging for such solution activities. Accurate predictions of water activity for these concentrates provides an alternative method for calculating solution activity and previous work has validated a relatively simply model for predicting the water activity of even complex electrolyte mixtures. Given such a water activity, a Gibbs-Duhem integration of that water activity accurately predicts the solution activity and therefore the solubility of NaNO{sub 3} at 18 deg. C with a correlation coefficient of 0.94 over a wide range of liquid waste compositions for these boil-down studies. To our knowledge, no other solubility prediction has correlated as highly with measured solubility points of NaNO{sub 3} in any complex electrolyte mixture. Better predictions of NaNO{sub 3} solubility in complex waste mixtures improve planning for recovery of waste tank space and reduce the need for new tank space. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dry Air Cooler Modeling for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Analysis

Modeling for commercially available and cost effective dry air coolers such as those manufactured by Harsco Industries has been implemented in the Argonne National Laboratory Plant Dynamics Code for system level dynamic analysis of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) Brayton cycles. The modeling can now be utilized to optimize and simulate sCO 2 Brayton cycles with dry air cooling whereby heat is rejected directly to the atmospheric heat sink without the need for cooling towers that require makeup water for evaporative losses. It has sometimes been stated that a benefit of the sCO 2 Brayton cycle is that it enables dry air cooling implying that the Rankine steam cycle does not. A preliminary and simple examination of a Rankine superheated steam cycle and an air-cooled condenser indicates that dry air cooling can be utilized with both cycles provided that the cycle conditions are selected appropriately

42 ENGINEERING↗

Combustion theory for liquids with a free surface. 3: Special problems

Two special problems concerning the combustion of liquids with a free surface, i.e., flame quenching during the mixing of a burning liquid inside a container and liquid burnout from a porous layer, are analyzed using a quasi-one-dimensional model. The critical parameters corresponding to the quenching of a burning fluid with a free surface are determined. Determinations are also made of the limiting pressure gradients corresponding to the transition from the combustion mode where the liquid evaporates from the surface of a porous layer to the mode where the phase transition surface lies inside the porous layer.

Milkov, S. N.↗

Numerical experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM was used in a series of medium-range numerical forecast experiments in order to improve understanding of the severe summer 1980 heat wave over the U.S. The results show that the derived soil moisture anomalies in the summer of 1980 contributed positively to the model's simulation of the heat wave maintenance, and suggest that once a region of reduced soil moisture is established, it tends to persist and maintain warmer and drier conditions. The lower soil moisture values resulted in reduced evaporation, higher ground temperatures, increased sensible heat flux from ground to air, higher surface air temperature, lower sea-level pressure, and higher 500-mb height. The effects of North Pacific sea-surface-temperature anomalies were mostly opposite to those of the soil-moisture anomalies: enhanced northerly flow of cooler drier air, increased evaporation, lower ground and air temperature, higher sea level pressure, and lower 500 mb heights over the Great Plains.

Wolfson, N.↗

Gamma rays from globular clusters

Globular clusters are known to contain a relatively large number of pulsars whose individual and collective emission in the X-ray and gamma-ray energy bands may be detectable by the instruments on board the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO), ROSAT, and possibly SIGMA. We discuss the several types of high-energy emission expected from isolated and interacting binary pulsars in globular clusters. Individual or collective high-energy emission from isolated pulsars is expected to be too low to be detected with current instruments. However, a class of high-luminosity hidden millisecond pulsars enshrouded in the evaporating material from irradiated companion stars can produce unpulsed shock emission detectable by the high-sensitivity instruments of ROSAT and CGRO. Establishing upper limits of high-energy emission from globular clusters will be valuable in constraining models for the formation of cluster millisecond pulsars.

Tavani, Marco↗

Incorporation of Condensation Heat Transfer in a Flow Network Code

Pure water is distilled from waste water in the International Space Station. The distillation assembly consists of an evaporator, a compressor and a condenser. Vapor is periodically purged from the condenser to avoid vapor accumulation. Purged vapor is condensed in a tube by coolant water prior to entering the purge pump. The paper presents a condensation model of purged vapor in a tube. This model is based on the Finite Volume Method. In the Finite Volume Method, the flow domain is discretized into multiple control volumes and a simultaneous analysis is performed.

Anthony, Miranda↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Isotopes in Meteorites

The session"Isotopes in Meteorites" consisted of the following presentations:The Common Property of Isotopic Anomalies in Meteorites; Revised Production Rates for 22Na and 54Mn in Meteorites Using Cross Sections Measured for Neutron-induced Reactions; Modeling of 14C and 10Be Production Rates in Meteorites and Lunar Samples; Investigating Xenon Isotopic Fractionation During Rayleigh-type Distillation; The Mean Life Squared Relationship for Abundances of Extinct Radioactivities; and Magnesium Isotopic Fractionation of Forsterite During Evaporation from Different Crystallographic Surfaces.

Source record↗

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Towards a Marine Stratus Climatology on Drizzle Occurrence from CALIPSO

Marine stratus are a predominant feature of our planet with the annual mean coverage exceeding 20%. They strongly reflect sunlight, yet exert only a modest effect on outgoing infrared radiation, providing a significant net cooling to the Earth’s radiative balance. Their formation is coupled to boundary layer circulations that are driven, in part, by cloud top radiative cooling and evaporative cooling from precipitation in downdrafts. Understanding how these cloud systems evolve as the climate changes is a key question that requires additional information on their lifecycle and microphysical properties to accurately represent their behavior in global circulation models. From a large-scale perspective, insight into the microphysical properties of marine stratus at cloud top can be realized through estimates of the effective radius (Re) of the droplet size distributions derived from MODIS observations. Estimates on the occurrence of rain/drizzle are available from CloudSat. Together these observations indicate that precipitation frequently occurs in clouds with higher cloud top Re. This relationship is consistent with the well documented shift in cloud top droplet size distributions towards fewer, yet larger droplets prior the onset of precipitation. Here we report on a new and complementary set observations from the CALIPSO mission. The approach derives an extinction-to-backscatter ratio (Sc, also known as the cloud lidar ratio) using an established relationship that depends on observations of the lidar attenuated backscatter and volume depolarization ratio within the cloud. Because Sc is strongly and inversely related to Re, a change in the derived Sc from higher to lower values corresponds to a change in the droplet size distribution as seen by MODIS. This change in the lidar signals at cloud top clearly identifies clouds that are capable of precipitation. The presentation provides a brief overview of the approach for deriving Sc and compares CALIOP-derived Sc with observations from other techniques. CALIOP classifications of drizzling clouds, based on the retrieved values Sc, are compared to independent, collocated assessments of drizzle occurrence reported in the standard CloudSat data products. Regional and seasonal comparisons highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the two sensors. A machine learning approach that combines information from both CALIOP and CloudSat showcases possible improvements in the global identification of scenes likely to contain rain-bearing clouds.

CALIPSO↗

OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS OF BALLISTIC DOWNFLOWS IN AN M-CLASS FLARE WITH THE INTERFACE REGION IMAGING SPECTROGRAPH

Despite significant advances in instrumentation, there remain no studies that analyze observations of on-disk flare loop plasma flows covering the entire evolution from chromospheric evaporation, through plasma cooling, to draining downflows. We present results from an imaging and spectroscopic observation from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) of the SOL2015–03–12T11:50:00 M-class flare, at high spatial resolution and time cadence. Our analysis of this event reveals initial plasma evaporation at flare temperatures indicated by 100–200 km s{sup −1} blueshifts in the Fe xxi line. We subsequently observe plasma cooling into chromospheric lines (Si iv and O iv) with ∼11 minute delay, followed by loop draining at ∼40 km s{sup −1} as indicated by a “C”-shaped redshift structure and significant (∼60 km s{sup −1}) non-thermal broadening. We use density-sensitive lines to calculate a plasma density for the flare loops, and estimate a theoretical cooling time approximately equal to the observed delay. Finally, we use a simple elliptical free-fall draining model to construct synthetic spectra, and perform what we believe to be the first direct comparison of such synthetic spectra to observations of draining downflows in flare loops.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaporator Feed Qualification Analysis Of Tank 38H And 43H Samples: January 2010 Through April 2013

This report provides the results of analyses that focused on the chemical species that pertain to the sodium aluminosilicate formation potential for archived Tank 38H and 43H subsurface samples from January 2010 through April 2013. Analyses included warm acid strike preparation followed by analysis of silicon, aluminum, and sodium and water dilution preparation followed by analysis for anions. The Tank 43H and 38H supernatant liquid silicon measurements for the January 2010 through April 2013 time period exhibit a slight increasing trend. Over this time period, the silicon concentration in the Tank 43H and Tank 38H samples averaged 179 mg/L and 235 mg/L, respectively. Comparison of Tank 43H sample results from 2005 through April 2013 to the previously developed process control models indicates that the current formation of sodium aluminosilicate in the 2H system is due to the seeded direct precipitation of cancrinite and sodalite.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Deforestation reshapes land-surface energy-flux partitioning

Land-use and land-cover change significantly modify local land-surface characteristics and water/energy exchanges, which can lead to atmospheric circulation and regional climate changes. In particular, deforestation accounts for a large portion of global land-use changes, which transforms forests into other land cover types, such as croplands and grazing lands. Many previous efforts have focused on observing and modeling land–atmosphere–water/energy fluxes to investigate land–atmosphere coupling induced by deforestation. However, interpreting land–atmosphere–water/energy-flux responses to deforestation is often complicated by the concurrent impacts from shifts in land-surface properties versus background atmospheric forcings. In this study, we used 29 paired FLUXNET sites, to improve understanding of how deforested land surfaces drive changes in surface-energy-flux partitioning. Each paired sites included an intact forested and non-forested site that had similar background climate. We employed transfer entropy, a method based on information theory, to diagnose directional controls between coupling variables, and identify nonlinear cause–effect relationships. Transfer entropy is a powerful tool to detective causal relationships in nonlinear and asynchronous systems. The paired eddy covariance flux measurements showed consistent and strong information flows from vegetation activity (gross primary productivity (GPP)) and physical climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, air temperature) to evaporative fraction (EF) over both non-forested and forested land surfaces. More importantly, the information transfers from radiation, precipitation, and GPP to EF were significantly reduced at non-forested sites, compared to forested sites. We then applied these observationally constrained metrics as benchmarks to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). ELM predicted vegetation controls on EF relatively well, but underpredicted climate factors on EF, indicating model deficiencies in describing the relationships between atmospheric state and surface fluxes. Moreover, changes in controls on surface energy flux partitioning due to deforestation were not detected in the model. We highlight the need for benchmarking model simulated surface-energy fluxes and the corresponding causal relationships against those of observations, to improve our understanding of model predictability on how deforestation reshapes land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EXPERIMENTAL AND MODELLING ANALYSIS OF A LARGE-SCALE TWO-PHASE LOOP THERMOSYPHON

Liquid pumping requires large quantities of electrical energy, including about 7% of the energy of building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. To replace pumped condenser-cooling tower water loops with a passive alternative system, we implemented a commercial-scale two-phase loop thermosyphon (TPLT). The unit consists of a 13 m riser integrated with a commercially available cooling tower and circulation water heater that simulates heat loads up to 25 kW. In addition to providing passive cooling capabilities, the cooling tower unit is also maintenance free, reliable, and can operate in both dry and wet modes. This study characterizes the performance (temperature difference between the evaporator and condenser) and the two-phase flow behavior of the loop under various refrigerant charges. Sight glasses installed throughout the loop are used to identify the operating flow regimes in the riser and downcomer. Over the range of operating conditions, we identified that there is an optimal refrigerant charge range for a specific heat load at which near-isothermal operation can be achieved. We further developed a model to predict the operating flow rate and gravitational height in the downcomer and compared it with the experimental data. The results show that the model agrees with the experimental data, in particular the threshold gravitational head height at which there will be subcooled liquid at the condenser exit, indicating that it can be used as a predictive tool for identifying the optimal loop charge for a given heat load.

Loop thermosyphon, passive two phase↗