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DOE OSTI2021

Phase-field modeling of rate-dependent fluid-driven fracture initiation and propagation

The rate-dependent behavior associated with deformation and fracturing of materials, such as natural rocks, poses significant challenges for modeling. In addition to the complications of the viscoelastic response, the speed of fracture propagation reflects micromechanical mechanisms in the fracture process zone(FPZ). In order to represent these complicated behaviors, a thermodynamically consistent, rate-dependent fracture model is required. Based on rigorous thermodynamic principles, we derive a rate-dependent phase-field mechanical model coupled with single-phase fluid flow in both the matrix and the fracture. The model is guaranteed to satisfy energy conservation during fracture propagation. Here, the system of equations is solved using the introduced solution procedure and a novel preconditioner that accounts for the complex fluid-structure interaction. The proposed phase-field model is tested against several benchmark problems on solid-fluid coupling, fluid-driven fracture propagation and rate-dependent viscoelastic deformation. The model serves as a strong basis for investigating rate-dependent fracturing experiments and for making predictions of material behaviors under new conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Slow Magnetosonic Waves and Fast Flows in Active Region Loops

Recent extreme ultraviolet spectroscopic observations indicate that slow magnetosonic waves are present in active region (AR) loops. Some of the spectral data were also interpreted as evidence of fast (approx 100-300 km/s) quasiperiodic flows. We have performed three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (3D MHD) modeling of a bipolar AR that contains impulsively generated waves and flows in coronal loops. The model AR is initiated with a dipole magnetic field and gravitationally stratified density, with an upflow-driven steadily or periodically in localized regions at the footpoints of magnetic loops. The resulting flows along the magnetic field lines of the AR produce higher density loops compared to the surrounding plasma by injection of material into the flux tubes and the establishment of siphon flow.We find that the impulsive onset of flows with subsonic speeds result in the excitation of damped slow magnetosonic waves that propagate along the loops and coupled nonlinearly driven fast-mode waves. The phase speed of the slow magnetosonic waves is close to the coronal sound speed. When the amplitude of the driving pulses is increased we find that slow shock-like wave trains are produced. When the upflows are driven periodically, undamped oscillations are produced with periods determined by the periodicity of the upflows. Based on the results of the 3D MHD model we suggest that the observed slow magnetosonic waves and persistent upflows may be produced by the same impulsive events at the bases of ARs.

Magnetohydrodynamics-Sun Activity↗

DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Finally, the new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power handling in a highly-radiative negative triangularity pilot plant

Abstract This work explores detailed power handling solutions for a class of high-field, highly-radiative negative triangularity (NT) reactors based around the MANTA concept (Rutherford et al 2024 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion ). The divertor design is kept as simple as possible, opting for a standard divertor with standard leg length. FreeGS is used to create an equilibrium for the boundary region, prioritizing a short outer leg length of only ∼50 cm (∼40% of the minor radius). The UEDGE code package is used for the boundary plasma solution to track plasma temperatures and fluxes to the divertor targets. It is found that for P SOL = 25 MW and n sep = 0.96 × 10 20 m −3 , conditions consistent with initial core transport modeling, little additional power mitigation is necessary. For a fixed impurity fraction of just 0.13% Ne in the plasma, the peak heat flux density at the more heavily loaded outer targets falls to 7.8 MW m −2 , while the electron temperature T e remains just under 5 eV. Scans around the parameter space reveal that even at densities lower than in the primary operating scenario, P SOL can be increased up to 50 MW, so long as a slightly higher fraction of extrinsic radiator is used. With less than 1% neon (Ne) impurity content, the divertor still experiences less than 10 MW m −2 at the outer target. Design of the plasma-facing components includes a close-fitting vacuum vessel with a tungsten inner surface as well as FLiBe-carrying cooling channels fashioned into the VV wall directly behind the divertor targets. For the seeded heat flux profile, Ansys Fluent heat transfer simulations estimate that the outer target temperature remains at just below 1550 ∘ C. Initial scoping of advanced divertor designs shows that for an X-divertor, detachment of the outer target becomes much simpler, and plasma fluxes to the targets drop considerably with only 0.01% Ne content.

Miller, M. A. (ORCID:0000000265406533)↗

DOE OSTI2017

Empirical Investigations of the Opportunity Limits of Automatic Residential Electric Load Shaping

Residential electric load shaping is often modeled as infrequent, utility-initiated, short-duration deferral of peak demand through direct load control. In contrast, modeled herein is the potential for frequent, transactive, intraday, consumer-configurable load shaping for storage-capable thermostatically controlled electric loads (TCLs), including refrigerators, freezers, and hot water heaters. Unique to this study are 28 months of 15-minute-interval observations of usage in 101 homes in the Pacific Northwest United States that specify exact start, duration, and usage patterns of approximately 25 submetered loads per home. The magnitudes of the load shift from voluntarily-participating TCL appliances are aggregated to form hourly upper and lower load-shaping limits for the coordination of electrical generation, transmission, distribution, storage, and demand. Empirical data are statistically analyzed to define metrics that help quantify load-shaping opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2012

Performance and Weight Estimates for an Advanced Open Rotor Engine

NASA s Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project and Subsonic Fixed Wing Project are focused on developing concepts and technologies which may enable dramatic reductions to the environmental impact of future generation subsonic aircraft. The open rotor concept (also historically referred to an unducted fan or advanced turboprop) may allow for the achievement of this objective by reducing engine fuel consumption. To evaluate the potential impact of open rotor engines, cycle modeling and engine weight estimation capabilities have been developed. The initial development of the cycle modeling capabilities in the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) tool was presented in a previous paper. Following that initial development, further advancements have been made to the cycle modeling and weight estimation capabilities for open rotor engines and are presented in this paper. The developed modeling capabilities are used to predict the performance of an advanced open rotor concept using modern counter-rotating propeller designs. Finally, performance and weight estimates for this engine are presented and compared to results from a previous NASA study of advanced geared and direct-drive turbofans.

Hendricks, Eric S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

KINEROS2-AGWA: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion) originated in the 1960s as a distributed event-based model that conceptualizes a watershed as a cascade of overland flow model elements that flow into trapezoidal channel model elements. KINEROS was one of the first widely available watershed models that interactively coupled a finite difference approximation of the kinematic overland flow equations to a physically based infiltration model. Development and improvement of KINEROS continued from the 1960s on a variety of projects for a range of purposes, which has resulted in a suite of KINEROS-based modeling tools. This article focuses on KINEROS2 (K2), a spatially distributed, event-based watershed rainfall-runoff and erosion model, and the companion ArcGIS-based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. AGWA automates the time-consuming tasks of watershed delineation into distributed model elements and initial parameterization of these elements using commonly available, national GIS data layers. A variety of approaches have been used to calibrate and validate K2 successfully across a relatively broad range of applications (e.g., urbanization, pre- and post-fire, hillslope erosion, erosion from roads, runoff and recharge, and manure transport). The case studies presented in this article (1) compare lumped to stepwise calibration and validation of runoff and sediment at plot, hillslope, and small watershed scales; and (2) demonstrate an uncalibrated application to address relative change in watershed response to wildfire.

Erosion↗

DOE OSTI2026

A&L Annual Report: Kapton Strength

Exploding Foil Initiator (EFI) systems function by launching a polymer flyer (often referred to as a slapper) at a high explosive (HE) pellet, which is intended to shock-initiate the HE. Flyer characteristics (e.g., shape, planarity, etc.) are extremely important in this respect, governing their ability to initiate the HE. Polymer models currently used in these systems are largely unvalidated, potentially compromising the integrity of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) predictions of EFI function. An improved EFI MHD modelling capability is expected to: (1) expedite optimization of EFI-based initiation system design, (2) enable consideration of EFI-related aging and corresponding lifetime predictions, and (3) potentially minimize the number of costly experiments required to certify EFI designs. To address this knowledge gap, several years ago we began a computational project to develop a higher-fidelity model for Kapton, a Polyimide copolymer most commonly employed as the flyer material in EFI devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Precancer Atlas to Drive Precision Prevention Trials

Cancer development is a complex process driven by inherited and acquired molecular and cellular alterations. Prevention is the holy grail of cancer elimination, but making this a reality will take a fundamental rethinking and deep understanding of premalignant biology. Here, we propose a national concerted effort to create a Precancer Atlas (PCA), integrating multi-omics and immunity – basic tenets of the neoplastic process. The biology of neoplasia caused by germline mutations has led to paradigm-changing precision prevention efforts, including: tumor testing for mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency in Lynch syndrome establishing a new paradigm, combinatorial chemoprevention efficacy in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), signal of benefit from imaging-based early detection research in high-germline risk for pancreatic neoplasia, elucidating early ontogeny in BRCA1-mutation carriers leading to an international breast cancer prevention trial, and insights into the intricate germline-somatic-immunity interaction landscape. Emerging genetic and pharmacologic (metformin) disruption of mitochondrial (mt) respiration increased autophagy to prevent cancer in a Li-Fraumeni mouse model (biology reproduced in clinical pilot) and revealed profound influences of subtle changes in mt DNA background variation on obesity, aging, and cancer risk. The elaborate communication between the immune system and neoplasia includes an increasingly complex cellular microenvironment and dynamic interactions between host genetics, environmental factors, and microbes in shaping the immune response. Cancer vaccines are in early murine and clinical precancer studies, building on the recent successes of immunotherapy and HPV vaccine immune prevention. Molecular monitoring in Barrett's esophagus to avoid overdiagnosis/treatment highlights an important PCA theme. Next generation sequencing (NGS) discovered age-related clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP). Ultra-deep NGS reports over the past year have redefined the premalignant landscape remarkably identifying tiny clones in the blood of up to 95% of women in their 50s, suggesting that potentially premalignant clones are ubiquitous. Similar data from eyelid skin and peritoneal and uterine lavage fluid provide unprecedented opportunities to dissect the earliest phases of stem/progenitor clonal (and microenvironment) evolution/diversity with new single-cell and liquid biopsy technologies. Cancer mutational signatures reflect exogenous or endogenous processes imprinted over time in precursors. In conclusion, accelerating the prevention of cancer will require a large-scale, longitudinal effort, leveraging diverse disciplines (from genetics, biochemistry, and immunology to mathematics, computational biology, and engineering), initiatives, technologies, and models in developing an integrated multi-omics and immunity PCA – an immense national resource to interrogate, target, and intercept events that drive oncogenesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling↗

NASA NTRS2019

Understanding the Impacts of Soil Moisture Initial Conditions on NWP in the Context of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from ‘off-the-shelf’ products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high resolution land surface model and in-situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land vs. atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.

Southern Great Plains↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quark flavor equilibration of the quark-gluon plasma

The early stage of a heavy-ion collision is marked by rapid entropy production and the transition from a gluon saturated initial condition to a plasma of quarks and gluons that evolves hydrodynamically. However, during the early times of the hydrodynamic evolution, the chemical composition of the QCD medium is still largely unknown. We present a study of quark chemical equilibration in the (Q)GP using a novel model of viscous hydrodynamic evolution in partial chemical equilibrium. Motivated by the success of gluon saturated initial condition models, we initialize the QCD medium as a completely gluon dominated state. Local quark production during the hydrodynamic phase is then simulated through the evolution of time-dependent fugacities for each independent quark flavor, with the timescales set as free parameters to compare different rates of equilibration. We present the results of complete heavy-ion collision simulations using this partial chemical equilibrium model, and show the effects on hadronic and electromagnetic observables. In particular, we show that the development of flow is sensitive to the equilibration timescale, providing an empirical way to probe the chemical equilibration of the QCD medium.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A method for examining ensemble averaging forms during the transition to turbulence in HED systems for application to RANS models

This paper discusses a strategy to initialize a two-dimensional (2D) Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model [LANL's Besnard–Harlow–Rauenzahn (BHR) model] in order to describe an unsteady transitional Richtmyer–Meshkov (RM)-induced flow observed in on-going high-energy-density ensemble experiments performed on the OMEGA-EP facility. The experiments consist of a nominal single-mode perturbation (initial amplitude a 0 ≈ 10 and wavelength $λ$ = 100μm) with target-to-target variations in the surface roughness subjected to the RM instability with delayed Rayleigh–Taylor in a heavy-to-light configuration. Our strategy leverages high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) implicit large eddy simulations (ILES) simulations to initialize BHR-relevant parameters and subsequently validate the 2D BHR results against the 3D ILES simulations. A suite of five 3D ILES simulations corresponding to five experimental target profiles is undertaken to generate an ensemble dataset. Using ensemble averages from the 3D simulations to initialize the turbulent kinetic energy in the BHR model ( K 0 ) demonstrates the ability of the model to predict the time evolution of the interface as well as the density-specific-volume covariance, b . To quantify the sensitivity of the BHR results to the choice of K 0 and the initial turbulent length scale, S 0 , we execute a parameter sweep spanning four orders of magnitude for both S 0 and K 0 , generating a parameter space consisting of 26 simulations. The Pearson's correlation coefficient is used as a measure of discrepancy between the 2D BHR and 3D ILES simulations and reveals that the ranges 8≲S 0 ≲20 μm and 10 9 ≲K 0 ≲10 10 cm 2 /s 2 produce predictions that agree best with the 3D ILES results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

Landform Evolution Modeling of Sedimentary Processes on Icy Worlds: the Cases of Hyperion and Helene

Sedimentary activity (erosion, transportation and deposition) is a major landscape-shaping process on many icy worlds of the outer solar system for which an understanding of this process is central to their geologic characterizations. Several recent studies, lead by the authors, have identified the effects of sedimentary activity on icy satellite landforms and recognized the role of mass wasting and volatile loss and redistribution in the evolution of these features. We apply state of the art, physics based, landform evolution modeling to icy satellite sedimentary landforms in order to fully quantitatively characterize how their morphologies change with time, and what their present appearances imply for the initial abundance and distribution of loose material, volatiles, and refractories in original pristine landforms. We will present results of our landform evolution modeling to the development of the landscapes of the Saturnian moons of Hyperion and Helene. Our current conclusions for Hyperion are that its unique appearance can be explained in part by the loss to space of ballistic ejecta during impact events. In order to create the smooth surfaces and the reticulate, honeycomb pattern of narrow divides between old craters, appreciable subsequent modification of crater morphology must occur through mass-wasting processes accompanied by sublimation, probably facilitated by the loss of CO2 as a component of the relief-supporting matrix of the bedrock. This mass wasting effectively destroys small craters, at least in part accounting for the paucity of sub-kilometer craters on Hyperion. Helene’s unusual morphology consists of broad depressions (modified large craters) and a generally smooth surface patterned with streaks and grooves. The streaks appear to be oriented down-gradient, as are the grooves. This pattern suggests intensive mass-wasting as a dominant process. Our initial modeling of this surface suggests a Bingham-like rheological behavior for the loose down-slope moving material. Interestingly, as a Bingham flow, the models indicate that aperiodic "intermittent" behavior to be present, suggesting that periods of quiet steady landform evolution are punctuated short periods of active surface readjustment.

Saturnian moons↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

Deller, Sean↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Modeling and Verification Study of Summer Precipitation Systems Using NASA Surface Initialization Datasets

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse-type convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within parameterization schemes, model resolution limitations, and uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of summertime pulse convection. This paper describes a sensitivity experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Interpolated land and ocean surface fields from a large-scale model are replaced with high-resolution datasets provided by unique NASA assets in an experimental simulation: the Land Information System (LIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SSTs. The LIS is run in an offline mode for several years at the same grid resolution as the WRF model to provide compatible land surface initial conditions in an equilibrium state. The MODIS SSTs provide detailed analyses of SSTs over the oceans and large lakes compared to current operational products. The WRF model runs initialized with the LIS+MODIS datasets result in a reduction in the overprediction of rainfall areas; however, the skill is almost equally as low in both experiments using traditional verification methodologies. Output from object-based verification within NCAR s Meteorological Evaluation Tools reveals that the WRF runs initialized with LIS+MODIS data consistently generated precipitation objects that better matched observed precipitation objects, especially at higher precipitation intensities. The LIS+MODIS runs produced on average a 4% increase in matched precipitation areas and a simultaneous 4% decrease in unmatched areas during three months of daily simulations.

Jonathan L. Case↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Design of Perovskite Catalytic Properties

Abstract Discovering new materials that efficiently catalyze the oxygen reduction and evolution reactions is critical for facilitating the widespread adoption of solid oxide fuel cell and electrolyzer (SOFC/SOEC) technologies. Here, machine learning (ML) models are developed to predict perovskite catalytic properties critical for SOFC/SOEC applications, including oxygen surface exchange, oxygen diffusivity, and area specific resistance (ASR). The models are based on trivial‐to‐calculate elemental features and are more accurate and dramatically faster than the best models based on ab initio‐derived features, potentially eliminating the need for ab initio calculations in descriptor‐based screening. The model of ASR enables temperature‐dependent predictions, has well calibrated uncertainty estimates and online accessibility. Use of temporal cross‐validation reveals the model to be effective at discovering new promising materials prior to their initial discovery, demonstrating the model can make meaningful predictions. Using the SHapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP) approach, detailed discussion of different approaches of model featurization is provided for ML property prediction. Finally, the model is used to screen more than 19 million perovskites to develop a list of promising cheap, earth‐abundant, stable, and high performing materials, and find some top materials contain mixtures of less‐explored elements (e.g., K, Bi, Y, Ni, Cu) worth exploring in more detail.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Getting allometry right at the Oak Ridge free‐air CO 2 enrichment experiment: Old problems and new opportunities for global change experiments

Societal Impact Statement Free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments provide essential data on forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 for evaluations of climate change impacts on humanity. Understanding and reducing the uncertainty in the experimental results is critical to ensure scientific and public confidence in the models and policy initiatives that derive therefrom. One source of uncertainty is the estimation of tree biomass using mathematical relationships between biomass and easily obtained and non‐destructive measurements (allometry). We evaluated the robustness of the allometric relationships established at the beginning of a FACE experiment and discuss the challenges and opportunities for the new generation of FACE experiments. Summary Long‐term field experiments to elucidate forest responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration require allometric equations to estimate tree biomass from non‐destructive measurements of tree size. We analyzed whether the allometric equations established at the beginning of a free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a Liquidambar styraciflua plantation were still valid at the end of the 12 year experiment. Aboveground woody biomass was initially predicted by an equation that included bole diameter, taper, and height, assuming that including taper and height as predictors would accommodate changes in tree structure that might occur over time and in response to elevated CO 2 . At the conclusion of the FACE experiment, we harvested 23 trees, measured dimensions and dry mass of boles and branches, and extracted and measured the woody root mass of 10 trees. Although 10 of the harvested trees were larger than the trees used to establish the allometric relationship, measured aboveground woody biomass was well predicted by the original allometry. The initial linear equation between bole basal area and woody root biomass underestimated final root biomass by 28%, but root biomass was just 21% of total wood mass, and errors in aboveground and belowground estimates were offsetting. The allometry established at the beginning of the experiment provided valid predictions of tree biomass throughout the experiment. New allometric approaches using terrestrial laser scanning should reduce an important source of uncertainty in decade‐long forest experiments and in assessments of centuries‐long forest biomass accretion used in evaluating carbon offsets and climate mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗