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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applicability of a Framework for Estimating Performance and Associated Uncertainty for Modified Aircraft Configurations

As improvements are made to the accuracy and reliability of modeling and simulation techniques, certification by analysis becomes a more attractive alternative compared to traditional aircraft flight testing. Certification by analysis is especially cost-effective when one considers modifications to a previously certified aircraft. However, it is important that the models and methods used are applicable and accurate throughout the intended use domain. A framework for estimating the performance and associated uncertainty was introduced in an earlier paper. The factors and limitations of this framework for estimating the performance and associated model form uncertainty are explored to determine the range of applicability of the framework, particularly with respect to model form, process and sensor noise, and quality of available flight test data. This paper focuses on the general limitations and applicability of the framework and not the applicability of the individual methods to a range of modified configurations, which requires a large number of modified configurations and is an area for future work. The effects of these factors on the performance and uncertainty results are demonstrated using NASA’s Generic Transport Model aircraft.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS2024

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗

NASA NTRS2026

A Missed Thrust Framework for Low-Thrust Spiral Trajectories to the NRHO

A framework is developed by which end-to-end optimization of many-revolution low-thrust spiral trajectories can be completed in the presence of missed thrust events. This framework is applied to the Lunar Transit trajectory by which the initial capability of NASA’s Gateway lunar space station will be delivered to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit. This low-thrust mission consists of three subphases, each designed according to the specific objectives and dynamical regimes encountered as the mission progresses from a medium Earth insertion orbit to cislunar space. The presented framework accounts for the unique considerations demanded by each mission phase and incorporates appropriate capabilities into a novel mission analysis tool. This methodology enables large scale and reliable analyses of missed thrust events across the end-to-end Lunar Transit to verify the robustness of flight trajectories across the full range of considered launch dates.

missed thrust↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: ETIPP Technical Assistance Informational Webinar

This webinar is for prospective applicants (i.e., remote, island, and islanded communities) interested in applying to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) in spring of 2022. This webinar provides an overview of ETIPP and technical assistance, introduces the ETIPP regional partners, summarizes two ongoing ETIPP projects, discusses the 2022 application process, and closes with a question-and-answer session. This webinar is hosted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which is part of the ETIPP partner network.

Alaska Center for Energy and Power↗

DOE OSTI2017

Radiolytic Gas Bubbles' Model and its Application to AHR's Transient Neutronics Analysis

Aqueous Homogeneous Reactor (AHR) receives much attention recently because its advantages in medical isotopes production. Fissile material and moderator is mixed in the fuel solution, leads to big negative feedback and generation of radiolytic gas bubbles; the fluidity of fuel and movement of bubbles bring out big challenge of the neutronics analysis methods. This paper aims to establish a reliable and effective gas bubbles' model, firstly a coupled Neutronics-CFD method is introduced to recognize gas bubbles' behavior characteristics, then it is simplified into mathematical expression and applied to Transient Calculation Code of Aqueous Homogeneous Reactor (TCCAHR), finally a typical AHR's transient process is simulated and compared with the experiment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Certification of CFD heat transfer software for turbine blade analysis

Accurate modeling of heat transfer effects is a critical component of the Turbine Branch of the Turbomachinery and Propulsion Systems Division. Being able to adequately predict and model heat flux, coolant flows, and peak temperatures are necessary for the analysis of high pressure turbine blades. To that end, the primary goal of my internship this summer will be to certify the reliability of the CFD program GlennHT for the purpose of turbine blade heat transfer analysis. GlennHT is currently in use by the engineers in the Turbine Branch who use the FORTRAN 77 version of the code for analysis. The program, however, has been updated to a FORTRAN 90 version which is more robust than the older code. In order for the new code to be distributed for use, its reliability must first be certified. Over the course of my internship I will create and run test cases using the FORTRAN 90 version of GlennHT and compare the results to older cases which are known to be accurate, If the results of the new code match those of the sample cases then the newer version will be one step closer to certification for distribution. In order to complete these it will first be necessary to become familiar with operating a number of other programs. Among them are GridPro, which is used to create a grid mesh around a blade geometry, and FieldView, whose purpose is to graphically display the results from the GlennHT program. Once enough familiarity is established with these programs to render them useful, then the work of creating and running test scenarios will begin. The work is additionally complicated by a transition in computer hardware. Most of the working computers in the Turbine Branch are Silicon Graphics machines, which will soon be replaced by LINUX PC's. My project is one of the first to make use the new PC's. The change in system architecture however, has created several software related issues which have greatly increased the time and effort investments required by the project.Although complications with the project continue to arise, it is expected that the goal of my internship can still be achieved within the remaining time period. Critical steps have been achieved and test scenarios can now be designed and run. At the completion of my internship, the FORTRAN 90 version of GlennHT should be well on its way to certification.

Jordan, William A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

Chytka, T. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Post-Test Analysis of a 10-Year Sodium Heat Pipe Life Test

High-temperature heat pipes are being evaluated for use in energy conversion applications such as fuel cells, gas turbine re-combustors, Stirling cycle heat sources; and with the resurgence of space nuclear power both as reactor heat removal elements and as radiator elements. Long operating life and reliable performance are critical requirements for these applications. Accordingly, long-term materials compatibility is being evaluated through the use of high-temperature life test heat pipes. Thermacore, Inc., has carried out a sodium heat pipe 10-year life test to establish long-term operating reliability. Sodium heat pipes have demonstrated favorable materials compatibility and heat transport characteristics at high operating temperatures in air over long time periods. A representative one-tenth segment Stirling Space Power Converter heat pipe with an Inconel 718 envelope and a stainless steel screen wick has operated for over 87,000 hr (10 years) at nearly 700 C. These life test results have demonstrated the potential for high-temperature heat pipes to serve as reliable energy conversion system components for power applications that require long operating lifetime with high reliability. Detailed design specifications, operating history, and post-test analysis of the heat pipe and sodium working fluid are described. Lessons learned and future life test plans are also discussed.

Rosenfeld, John H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Community-Centric Microgrid Feasibility Analysis Framework to Accelerate Resilience of Island Communities

Marine energy offers a reliable energy solution for island and coastal communities, which often lack traditional local generation, to support their transition to energy independence and reduce reliance on externally imported fuels. Successful deployment of new technologies in these isolated locations requires community acceptance and approval from the outset, as these communities typically lack the financial and technical resources to operate and maintain new systems. This report presents a community-centric microgrid planning framework for remote coastal and island communities. Community engagement is integrated as the first step in the planning process, incorporating community profiles and visions into energy development scenarios. A case study was conducted in St. George, Pribilof Islands, Alaska, which relies entirely on diesel yet has significant wind and wave energy potential. Community engagement revealed a unique history and current economic status, with an interest in adopting advanced energy technologies despite past failures. Various microgrid configurations were optimized, considering different technologies to meet current and future energy needs while balancing cost and energy resilience. Wave energy converters (WECs) were a key component, integrated with other energy sources using the Xendee optimization tool. The Marine Energy Microgrid Toolkit, developed as part of this work, uses commercial power system analysis tools to optimize and analyze microgrid scenarios. The developed framework and toolkit can be applied to island and coastal communities to enhance resilience and support microgrid deployments. Future enhancements will include incorporating new marine resources, developing dynamic models, and automating the integration of Xendee and PowerFactory simulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling and Analysis of Wrinkled Membranes: An Overview

Thin-film membranes are basic elements of a variety of space inflatable/deployable structures. Wrinkling degrades the performance and reliability of these membrane structures, and hence has been a topic of continued interest. Wrinkling analysis of membranes for general geometry and arbitrary boundary conditions is quite challenging. The objective of this presentation is two-fold. Firstly, the existing models of wrinkled membranes and related numerical solution methods are reviewed. The important issues to be discussed are the capability of a membrane model to characterize taut, wrinkled and slack states of membranes in a consistent and physically reasonable manner; the ability of a wrinkling analysis method to predict the formation and growth of wrinkled regions, and to determine out-of-plane deformation and wrinkled waves; the convergence of a numerical solution method for wrinkling analysis; and the compatibility of a wrinkling analysis with general-purpose finite element codes. According to this review, several opening issues in modeling and analysis of wrinkled membranes that are to be addressed in future research are summarized, The second objective of this presentation is to discuss a newly developed membrane model of two viable parameters (2-VP model) and associated parametric finite element method (PFEM) for wrinkling analysis are introduced. The innovations and advantages of the proposed membrane model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis are: (1) Via a unified stress-strain relation; the 2-VP model treat the taut, wrinkled, and slack states of membranes consistently; (2) The PFEM-based wrinkling analysis has guaranteed convergence; (3) The 2-VP model along with PFEM is capable of predicting membrane out-of-plane deformations; and (4) The PFEM can be integrated into any existing finite element code. Preliminary numerical examples are also included in this presentation to demonstrate the 2-VP model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis approach.

Yang, B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Ten Year Operating Test Results and Post-Test Analysis of a 1/10 Segment Stirling Sodium Heat Pipe, Phase III

High-temperature heat pipes are being evaluated for use in energy conversion applications such as fuel cells, gas turbine re-combustors, Stirling cycle heat sources; and with the resurgence of space nuclear power both as reactor heat removal elements and as radiator elements. Long operating life and reliable performance are critical requirements for these applications. Accordingly, long-term materials compatibility is being evaluated through the use of high-temperature life test heat pipes. Thermacore, Inc., has carried out a sodium heat pipe 10-year life test to establish long-term operating reliability. Sodium heat pipes have demonstrated favorable materials compatibility and heat transport characteristics at high operating temperatures in air over long time periods. A representative one-tenth segment Stirling Space Power Converter heat pipe with an Inconel 718 envelope and a stainless steel screen wick has operated for over 87,000 hr (10 yr) at nearly 700 C. These life test results have demonstrated the potential for high-temperature heat pipes to serve as reliable energy conversion system components for power applications that require long operating lifetime with high reliability. Detailed design specifications, operating history, and post-test analysis of the heat pipe and sodium working fluid are described.

Rosenfeld, John, H↗

NASA NTRS1980

Photovoltaic power system reliability considerations

This paper describes an example of how modern engineering and safety techniques can be used to assure the reliable and safe operation of photovoltaic power systems. This particular application was for a solar cell power system demonstration project in Tangaye, Upper Volta, Africa. The techniques involve a definition of the power system natural and operating environment, use of design criteria and analysis techniques, an awareness of potential problems via the inherent reliability and FMEA methods, and use of a fail-safe and planned spare parts engineering philosophy.

Lalli, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Probabilistic System Analysis of Intelligent Propulsion System Technologies

NASA s Intelligent Propulsion System Technology (Propulsion 21) project focuses on developing adaptive technologies that will enable commercial gas turbine engines to produce fewer emissions and less noise while increasing reliability. It features adaptive technologies that have included active tip-clearance control for turbine and compressor, active combustion control, turbine aero-thermal and flow control, and enabling technologies such as sensors which are reliable at high operating temperatures and are minimally intrusive. A probabilistic system analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of these technologies on aircraft CO2 (directly proportional to fuel burn) and LTO (landing and takeoff) NO(x) reductions. A 300-passenger aircraft, with two 396-kN thrust (85,000-pound) engines is chosen for the study. The results show that NASA s Intelligent Propulsion System technologies have the potential to significantly reduce the CO2 and NO(x) emissions. The results are used to support informed decisionmaking on the development of the intelligent propulsion system technology portfolio for CO2 and NO(x) reductions.

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Associative Flow Rule Used to Include Hydrostatic Stress Effects in Analysis of Strain-Rate-Dependent Deformation of Polymer Matrix Composites

designing reliable composite engine cases that are lighter than the metal cases in current use. The types of polymer matrix composites that are likely to be used in such an application have a deformation response that is nonlinear and that varies with strain rate. The nonlinearity and the strain-rate dependence of the composite response are due primarily to the matrix constituent. Therefore, in developing material models to be used in the design of impact-resistant composite engine cases, the deformation of the polymer matrix must be correctly analyzed. However, unlike in metals, the nonlinear response of polymers depends on the hydrostatic stresses, which must be accounted for within an analytical model. By applying micromechanics techniques along with given fiber properties, one can also determine the effects of the hydrostatic stresses in the polymer on the overall composite deformation response. First efforts to account for the hydrostatic stress effects in the composite deformation applied purely empirical methods that relied on composite-level data. In later efforts, to allow polymer properties to be characterized solely on the basis of polymer data, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center developed equations to model the polymers that were based on a non-associative flow rule, and efforts to use these equations to simulate the deformation of representative polymer materials were reasonably successful. However, these equations were found to have difficulty in correctly analyzing the multiaxial stress states found in the polymer matrix constituent of a composite material. To correct these difficulties, and to allow for the accurate simulation of the nonlinear strain-rate-dependent deformation analysis of polymer matrix composites, in the efforts reported here Glenn researchers reformulated the polymer constitutive equations from basic principles using the concept of an associative flow rule. These revised equations were characterized and validated in an experimental program carried out through a university grant with the Ohio State University, wherein tensile and shear deformation data were obtained for a representative polymer for strain rates ranging from quasi-static to high rates of several hundred per second. Tensile deformation data also were obtained over a variety of strain rates and fiber orientation angles for a representative polymer matrix composite composed using the polymer.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Oswald, Fred B.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Energy-Water Microgrid Opportunity Analysis at the University of Arizona's Biosphere 2 Facility

Microgrids provide reliable and cost-effective energy services in a variety of conditions and locations. There has been minimal effort invested in developing energy-water microgrids that demonstrate the feasibility and leverage synergies of operating renewable energy and water systems in a coordinated framework. Water systems can be operated in ways to provide ancillary services to the electrical grid and renewable energy can be utilized to power water-related infrastructure, but the potential for co-managed systems has not yet been quantified or fully characterized. Energy-water microgrids could be a promising solution to improve energy and water resource management for islands, rural communities, distributed generation, Defense operations, and many parts of the world lacking critical infrastructure. NREL and the University of Arizona have been jointly researching energy-water microgrid opportunities at the University's Biosphere 2 (B2) research facility. B2 is an ideal case study for an energy-water microgrid test site, given its size, its unique mission and operations, the criticality of water and energy infrastructure, and its ability to operate connected to or disconnected from the local electrical grid. Moreover, the B2 is a premier facility for undertaking agricultural research, providing an excellent opportunity to evaluate connections and tradeoffs at the food-energy-water nexus. In this study, NREL used the B2 facility as a case study for an energy-water microgrid test site, with the potential to catalyze future energy-water system integration research. The study identified opportunities for energy and water efficiency and estimated the sizes of renewable energy and storage systems required to meet remaining loads in a microgrid, identified dispatchable loads in the water system, and laid the foundation for an in-depth energy-water microgrid analysis. The foundational work performed at B2 serves a model that can be built upon for identifying relevant energy-water microgrid data, analytical requirements, and operational challenges associated with development of future energy-water microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Rocket engine propulsion 'system reliability'

A system reliability approach is discussed which is based on a quantitative assessment of both the engine system and hardware reliability during the design process. The approach makes it possible to evaluate design trades as the design matures. It is concluded that the system reliability assessment approach offers the following benefits. The uncertainty of each design variable is explicitly considered in the analysis process. The most significant design variables are ranked in order of their effect on reliability. Design trades can be assessed for reliability impact. It is concluded that the approach facilitates communication between disciplines and thus aids in concurrent engineering.

O'Hara, K. J.↗