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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

Perturbation theory, effective field theory, and oscillations in the power spectrum

We explore the relationship between the nonlinear matter power spectrum and the various Lagrangian and Standard Perturbation Theories (LPT and SPT). We first look at it in the context of one dimensional (1-d) dynamics, where 1LPT is exact at the perturbative level and one can exactly resum the SPT series into the 1LPT power spectrum. Shell crossings lead to non-perturbative effects, and the PT ignorance can be quantified in terms of their ratio, which is also the transfer function squared in the absence of stochasticity. At the order of PT we work, this parametrization is equivalent to the results of effective field theory (EFT), and can thus be expanded in terms of the same parameters. We find that its radius of convergence is larger than the SPT loop expansion. The same EFT parametrization applies to all SPT loop terms and if stochasticity can be ignored, to all N-point correlators. In 3-d, the LPT structure is considerably more complicated, and we find that LPT models with parametrization motivated by the EFT exhibit running with k and that SPT is generally a better choice. Since these transfer function expansions contain free parameters that change with cosmological model their usefulness for broadband power is unclear. For this reason we test the predictions of these models on baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) and other primordial oscillations, including string monodromy models, for which we ran a series of simulations with and without oscillations. Most models are successful in predicting oscillations beyond their corresponding PT versions, confirming the basic validity of the model. We show that if primordial oscillations are localized to a scale q, the wiggles in power spectrum are approximately suppressed as exp[−k{sup 2}Σ{sup 2}(q)/2], where Σ(q) is rms displacement of particles separated by q, which saturates on large scales, and decreases as q is reduced. No oscillatory features survive past k ∼ 0.5h/Mpc at z = 0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Internal Short Circuits in Lithium-Ion Cells for PHEVs

Development of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) has recently become a high national priority because of their potential to enable significantly reduced petroleum consumption by the domestic transportation sector in the relatively near term. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are a critical enabling technology for PHEVs. Among battery technologies with suitable operating characteristics for use in vehicles, Li-ion batteries offer the best combination of energy, power, life and cost. Consequently, worldwide, leading corporations and government agencies are supporting the development of Li-ion batteries for PHEVs, as well as the full spectrum of vehicular applications ranging from mild hybrid to all-electric. In this project, using a combination of well-defined experiments, custom designed cells and simulations, we have improved the understanding of the process by which a Li-ion cell that develops an internal short progresses to thermal runaway. Using a validated model for thermal runaway, we have explored the influence of environmental factors and cell design on the propensity for thermal runaway in full-sized PHEV cells. We have also gained important perspectives about internal short development and progression; specifically that initial internal shorts may be augmented by secondary shorts related to separator melting. Even though the nature of these shorts is very stochastic, we have shown the critical and insufficiently appreciated role of heat transfer in influencing whether a developing internal short results in a thermal runaway. This work should lead to enhanced perspectives on separator design, the role of active materials and especially cathode materials with respect to safety and the design of automotive cooling systems to enhance battery safety in PHEVs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modeling the Amplfied OSC Experiment at IOTA

Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC), a beam cooling technique based on Stochastic Cooling, is in the early stages of experimental development. It uses radiation produced by the beam in an undulator magnet (the pickup) to correct the momentum deviation of particles downstream in another undulator (the kicker). The OSC mechanism was recently demonstrated at Fermilabʼs IOTA ring using a passive configuration. However, the cooling rate of OSC can be dramatically increased by first amplifying the undulator radiation before applying the corrective kick. In collaboration with the IOTA experiment, we developed a computational model of the OSC mechanism. This work presents beam‐dynamics simulations of the amplified‐OSC configuration. We implement a model of intrabeam scattering and study the effects on beam equilibrium and diffusion rate as a function of bunch charge. Finally, we investigate the phase‐space dynamics with various coupling configurations between the transverse and longitudinal planes.

Dick, A. J.↗

Charging time for dust grain on surface exposed to plasma

We consider the charging of a dust grain sitting on a surface exposed to plasma. The stochastic model of Sheridan and Hayes [Appl. Phys. Lett. 98, 091501 (2011)] is solved analytically for the charging time, which is found to be directly proportional to the square root of the electron temperature and inversely proportional to both the grain radius and plasma density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Constraining curvatonic reheating

We derive the first systematic observational constraints on reheating in models of inflation where an additional light scalar field contributes to primordial density perturbations and affects the expansion history during reheating. This encompasses the original curvaton model but also covers a larger class of scenarios. We find that, compared to the single-field case, lower values of the energy density at the end of inflation and of the reheating temperature are preferred when an additional scalar field is introduced. For instance, if inflation is driven by a quartic potential, which is one of the most favoured models when a light scalar field is added, the upper bound T {sub reh} < 5 × 10{sup 4} GeV on the reheating temperature T {sub reh} is derived, and the implications of this value on post-inflationary physics are discussed. The information gained about reheating is also quantified and it is found that it remains modest in plateau inflation (though still larger than in the single-field version of the model) but can become substantial in quartic inflation. The role played by the vev of the additional scalar field at the end of inflation is highlighted, and opens interesting possibilities for exploring stochastic inflation effects that could determine its distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Transported PDF Modeling of Compressible Turbulent Reactive Flows by using the Eulerian Monte Carlo Fields Method

Although the transported probability density function (PDF) method has been developed for decades, its application has been mainly focused on the low-Mach number flow problems. This work extends the transported PDF method to compressible flow problems. The Eulerian Monte Carlo fields (EMCF) solution method is employed to solve the transported PDF equation for compressible flow problems. A pseudo stagnation enthalpy is introduced and its stochastic partial differential equation is derived to ensure total energy conservation numerically. A new mixing model called interaction by partial exchange with mean (IPEM) is introduced to expand the available choices of mixing models for the EMCF method. The consistency of the EMCF method is examined for solving the transported PDF equation. Numerical implementation details are discussed, such as the density coupling between the compressible flow solver and the EMCF solver, discretization schemes for the mixing terms and the stochastic terms. The implemented compressible flow solver coupled with the EMCF solver is verified and validated in a series of test cases with increasing level of complexity, ranging from a statistically one-dimensional turbulent mixing layer to a self-excited resonance model rocket combustor. It is observed that in general with the increase of compressibility, there is an increase in the sensitivity of the modeling results to the different models and algorithms. This makes it necessary to develop a thorough understanding of the model sensitivity in order to develop a robust and accurate simulation solver for highly compressible turbulent reactive flows. The thermo-acoustic instability inside the model rocket combustor case is captured reasonably, which demonstrates the overall capability of the developed compressible turbulent combustion solver based on the transported PDF method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energy impact evaluation for eco-routing and charging of autonomous electric vehicle fleet: Ambient temperature consideration

This paper studies the heterogeneous energy cost and charging demand impact of autonomous electric vehicle(EV) fleet under different ambient temperature. A data-driven method is introduced to formulate a two-dimensional grid stochastic energy consumption model for electric vehicles. This model aids in analyzing EV energy cost and describing uncertainties under variable traffic and ambient temperature conditions. According to this energy consumption model, an optimal eco-routing and charging decision making framework is designed for autonomous EV fleet. This optimization framework can improve the capability of autonomous EV's energy management and help to find their minimum energy cost routes with consideration of charging demand and travel time requirements. Based on these promising models and technologies, comprehensive case studies are performed on a data-driven simulated transportation network in New York City. Detailed results show us the heterogeneous energy impact and charging demand under different ambient temperature. By giving the same travel demand and charging station information, there may be more than 20% difference of overall energy cost and 60% difference of charging demand in a specific charging station between low and high ambient temperature of a month. All these studies will help to construct sustainable infrastructure for autonomous electric vehicle fleet management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Underlying Fundamentals of Kalman Filtering for River Network Modeling

The grand challenge of producing hydrometeorological estimates every time and everywhere has motivated the fusion of sparse observations with dense numerical models, with a particular interest on discharge in river modeling. Ensemble methods are largely preferred as they enable the estimation of error properties, but at the expense of computational load and generally with underestimations. These imperfect stochastic estimates motivate the use of correction methods, that is, error localization and inflation, although the physical justifications for their optimality are limited. The purpose of this study is to use one of the simplest forms of data assimilation when applied to river modeling and reveal the underlying mechanisms impacting its performance. Our framework based on assimilating daily averaged in situ discharge measurements to correct daily averaged runoff was tested over a 4-yr case study of two rivers in Texas. Results show that under optimal conditions of inflation and localization, discharge simulations are consistently improved such that the mean values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency are enhanced from211.32 to 0.55 at observed gauges and from212.24 to21.10 at validation gauges. Yet, parameters controlling the inflation and the localization have a large impact on the performance. Further investigations of these sensitivities showed that optimal inflation occurs when compensating exactly for discrepancies in the magnitude of errors while optimal localization matches the distance traveled during one assimilation window. These results may be applicable to more advanced data assimilation methods as well as for larger applications motivated by upcoming river-observing satellite missions, such as NASA’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission.

Streamflow↗

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Radionuclide gas transport through nuclear explosion-generated fracture networks

Underground nuclear weapon testing produces radionuclide gases which may seep to the surface. Barometric pumping of gas through explosion-fractured rock is investigated using a new sequentially-coupled hydrodynamic rock damage/gas transport model. Fracture networks are produced for two rock types (granite and tuff) and three depths of burial. The fracture networks are integrated into a flow and transport numerical model driven by surface pressure signals of differing amplitude and variability. There are major differences between predictions using a realistic fracture network and prior results that used a simplified geometry. Matrix porosity and maximum fracture aperture have the greatest impact on gas breakthrough time and window of opportunity for detection, with different effects between granite and tuff simulations highlighting the importance of accurately simulating the fracture network. In particular, maximum fracture aperture has an opposite effect on tuff and granite, due to different damage patterns and their effect on the barometric pumping process. From stochastic simulations using randomly generated hydrogeologic parameters, normalized detection curves are presented to show differences in optimal sampling time for granite and tuff simulations. In conclusion, seasonal and location-based effects on breakthrough, which occur due to differences in barometric forcing, are stronger where the barometric signal is highly variable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Power-Law Scaling in the Internal Variability of Cumulus Cloud Size Distributions due to Subsampling and Spatial Organization

In this study, the spatial structure of cumulus cloud populations is investigated using three-dimensional snapshots from large-domain LES experiments. The aim is to understand and quantify the internal variability in cloud size distributions due to subsampling effects and spatial organization. A set of idealized shallow cumulus cases is selected with varying degrees of spatial organization, including a slowly organizing marine precipitating case and five more quickly organizing diurnal cases over land. A subdomain analysis is applied, yielding cloud number distributions at sample sizes ranging from severely undersampled to nearly complete. A strong power-law scaling is found in the relation between cloud number variability and subdomain size, reflecting an inverse linear relation. Scaling subdomain size by cloud size yields a data collapse across time points and cases, highlighting the role played by cloud spacing in controlling the stochastic variability. Spatial organization acts on top of this baseline model by increasing the maximum cloud size and by enhancing the variability in the number of smallest clouds. This reflects that the smaller clouds start to live on top of larger-scale thermodynamic structures, such as cold pools, which favor or inhibit their formation. Compositing all continental cumulus cases suggests the existence of a prototype diurnal time dependence in the spatial organization. A simple stochastic expression for cloud number variability is proposed that is formulated in terms of two dimensionless groups, which allows objective estimation of the degree of spatial organization in simulated and observed cumulus cloud populations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling of the amplified optical stochastic cooling experiment at IOTA

Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC), a beam cooling technique based on Stochastic Cooling, is in the early stages of experimental development. It uses radiation produced by the beam in an undulator magnet (the pickup) to correct the momentum deviation of particles downstream in another undulator (the kicker). The OSC mechanism was recently demonstrated at Fermilab’s IOTA ring using a passive configuration. However, the cooling rate of OSC can be dramatically increased by first amplifying the undulator radiation before applying the corrective kick. In collaboration with the IOTA experiment, we developed a computational model of the OSC mechanism. This paper presents beam-dynamics simulations of the amplified-OSC configuration. We implement a model of intrabeam scattering and study the effects on beam equilibrium and diffusion rate as a function of bunch charge. Finally, we investigate the phase-space dynamics with various coupling configurations between the transverse and longitudinal planes.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor-dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter s performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor-bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Bard A.↗

Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor-dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter s performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor-bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Brad A.↗

Identifying Bearing Rotodynamic Coefficients Using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter's performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Brad A.↗

Comparison of SERPENT and CASMO-5M for pressurized water reactors models

The objective of this work is to perform a preliminary assessment of the capability of SERPENT to generate cross sections for a PWR Beginning-of-Life (BOL) isothermal mini-core by comparing a SERPENT/PARCS solution with the results obtained using a CASMO-5M/PARCS approach. The PARCS code is used instead of the usual SIMULATE-3 to analyze the Swiss Reactors, because interfaces with PARCS already exist to obtain neutronic data from SERPENT. For the PWR configurations, the differences between CASMO-5M and SERPENT solutions are within 200 pcm at the assembly level and thus rather small when considering the deterministic transport method (energy/angular/space discretization) in CASMO-5M versus the stochastic treatment of SERPENT, the statistical uncertainties in the Monte-Carlo approach as well as the eventual differences in nuclear data used by both codes. At the 2D mini-core level, no major difference is observed when comparing PARCS run with CASMO-5M versus SERPENT cross sections. For the generation of kinetic parameters, non trivial differences are observed due both to the methods and the data used. For the relatively limited number of configurations considered, it is hard to make any definitive statement on the benefits of using Monte Carlo codes in terms of nuclear data generation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗