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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Is the Jeffreys' scale a reliable tool for Bayesian model comparison in cosmology?

We are entering an era where progress in cosmology is driven by data, and alternative models will have to be compared and ruled out according to some consistent criterium. The most conservative and widely used approach is Bayesian model comparison. In this paper we explicitly calculate the Bayes factors for all models that are linear with respect to their parameters. We do this in order to test the so called Jeffreys' scale and determine analytically how accurate its predictions are in a simple case where we fully understand and can calculate everything analytically. We also discuss the case of nested models, e.g. one with M{sub 1} and another with M{sub 2} superset of M{sub 1} parameters and we derive analytic expressions for both the Bayes factor and the figure of Merit, defined as the inverse area of the model parameter's confidence contours. With all this machinery and the use of an explicit example we demonstrate that the threshold nature of Jeffreys' scale is not a ''one size fits all'' reliable tool for model comparison and that it may lead to biased conclusions. Furthermore, we discuss the importance of choosing the right basis in the context of models that are linear with respect to their parameters and how that basis affects the parameter estimation and the derived constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The CLASSgal code for relativistic cosmological large scale structure

We present accurate and efficient computations of large scale structure observables, obtained with a modified version of the CLASS code which is made publicly available. This code includes all relativistic corrections and computes both the power spectrum C{sub ℓ}(z{sub 1},z{sub 2}) and the corresponding correlation function ξ(θ,z{sub 1},z{sub 2}) of the matter density and the galaxy number fluctuations in linear perturbation theory. For Gaussian initial perturbations, these quantities contain the full information encoded in the large scale matter distribution at the level of linear perturbation theory. We illustrate the usefulness of our code for cosmological parameter estimation through a few simple examples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Magnetic ground states and magnetodielectric effect in R Cr ( BO 3 ) 2 ( R = Y and Ho)

Here, the layered perovskites RCr(BO 3 ) 2 (R = Y and Ho) with magnetic triangular lattices were studied by performing ac/dc susceptibility, specific heat, elastic and inelastic neutron scattering, and dielectric constant measurements. The results show (i) both samples' Cr 3+ spins order in a canted antiferromagnetic structure with T N around 8–9 K, while the Ho 3+ ions do not order down to T =1.5 K in HoCr(BO 3 ) 2 ; (ii) when a critical magnetic field HC around 2-3 T is applied below T N , the Cr 3+ spins in the Y compound and both the Cr 3+ and Ho 3+ spins in the Ho compound order in a ferromagnetic state; (iii) both samples exhibit dielectric constant anomalies around the transition temperature and critical field, but the Ho compound displays a much stronger magnetodielectric response. We speculate that this is due to the magnetostriction, which depends on both the Cr 3+ and the Ho 3+ ions' ordering in the Ho compound. Moreover, by using linear spin-wave theory to simulate the inelastic neutron scattering data, we estimated the Y compound's intralayer and interlayer exchange strengths as ferromagnetic J 1 = –0.12 meV and antiferromagnetic J 2 = 0.014 meV, respectively. The competition between different kinds of superexchange interactions results in the ferromagnetic intralayer interaction.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2016

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza↗
DOE OSTI2021

Switching Device-Cognizant Sequential Distribution System Restoration

This paper presents an optimization framework for sequential reconfiguration using an assortment of switching devices and repair process in distribution system restoration. Compared to existing studies, this paper considers types, capabilities and operational limits of different switching devices, making it applicable in practice. We develop a novel multi-phase method to find the optimal sequential operation of various switching devices and repair faulted areas. We consider circuit breakers, reclosers, sectionalizers, load breaker switches, and fuses. The switching operation problem is decomposed into two mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) subproblems. The first subproblem determines the optimal network topology and estimates the number of steps to reach that topology, while the second subproblem generates a sequence of switching operations to coordinate the switches. For repairing the faults, we design an MILP model that dispatches repair crews to clear faults and replace melted fuses. After clearing a fault, we update the topology of the network by generating a new sequence of switching operations, and the process continues until all faults are cleared. To improve the computational efficiency, a network reduction algorithm is developed to group line sections, such that only switchable sections are present in the reduced network. The proposed method is validated on the IEEE 123-bus and 8500-bus systems.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long‐term evaluation of fitness and demographic effects of a Chinook Salmon supplementation program

Abstract While the goal of supplementation programs is to provide positive, population‐level effects for species of conservation concern, these programs can also present an inherent fitness risk when captive‐born individuals are fully integrated into the natural population. In order to evaluate the long‐term effects of a supplementation program and estimate the demographic and phenotypic factors influencing the fitness of a threatened population of Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), we genotyped tissue samples spanning a 19‐year period (1998–2016) to generate pedigrees from adult fish returning to Johnson Creek, Idaho, USA. We expanded upon previous estimates of relative reproductive success (RRS) to include grandparentage analyses and used generalized linear models to determine whether origin (hatchery or natural) or phenotypic traits (timing of arrival to spawning grounds, body length, and age) significantly predicted reproductive success (RS) across multiple years. Our results provide evidence that this supplementation program with 100% natural‐origin broodstock provided a long‐term demographic boost to the population (mean of 4.56 times in the first generation and mean of 2.52 times in the second generation). Overall, when spawning in nature, hatchery‐origin fish demonstrated a trend toward lower RS compared to natural‐origin fish ( p < 0.05). However, when hatchery‐origin fish successfully spawned with natural‐origin fish, they had similar RS compared to natural by natural crosses (first‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.11 females, 1.13 males; second‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.03 females, 1.08 males). While origin, return year, and body length were significant predictors of fitness for both males and females ( p < 0.05), return day was significant for males but not females ( p > 0.05). These results indicate that supplementation programs that reduce the potential for genetic adaptation to captivity can be effective at increasing population abundance while limiting long‐term fitness effects on wild populations.

Janowitz‐Koch, Ilana↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-DE-207B-04: Quantitative Contrast-Enhanced Spectral Mammography Based On Photon-Counting Detectors: A Feasibility Study

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of accurate quantification of iodine mass thickness in contrast-enhanced spectral mammography. Methods: Experimental phantom studies were performed on a spectral mammography system based on Si strip photon-counting detectors. Dual-energy images were acquired using 40 kVp and a splitting energy of 34 keV with 3 mm Al pre-filtration. The initial calibration was done with glandular and adipose tissue equivalent phantoms of uniform thicknesses and iodine disk phantoms of various concentrations. A secondary calibration was carried out using the iodine signal obtained from the dual-energy decomposed images and the known background phantom thicknesses and densities. The iodine signal quantification method was validated using phantoms composed of a mixture of glandular and adipose materials, for various breast thicknesses and densities. Finally, the traditional dual-energy weighted subtraction method was also studied as a comparison. The measured iodine signal from both methods was compared to the known iodine concentrations of the disk phantoms to characterize the quantification accuracy. Results: There was good agreement between the iodine mass thicknesses measured using the proposed method and the known values. The root-mean-square (RMS) error was estimated to be 0.2 mg/cm2. The traditional weighted subtraction method also predicted a linear correlation between the measured signal and the known iodine mass thickness. However, the correlation slope and offset values were strongly dependent on the total breast thickness and density. Conclusion: The results of the current study suggest that iodine mass thickness can be accurately quantified with contrast-enhanced spectral mammography. The quantitative information can potentially improve the differentiation between benign and malignant legions. Grant funding from Philips Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Oxygen torus and its coincidence with EMIC wave in the deep inner magnetosphere: Van Allen Probe B and Arase observations

We investigate the longitudinal structure of the oxygen torus in the inner magnetosphere for a specific event found on 12 September 2017, using simultaneous observations from the Van Allen Probe B and Arase satellites. It is found that Probe B observed a clear enhancement in the average plasma mass (M) up to 3–4 amu at L = 3.3–3.6 and magnetic local time (MLT) = 9.0 h. In the afternoon sector at MLT ~ 16.0 h, both Probe B and Arase found no clear enhancements in M. This result suggests that the oxygen torus does not extend over all MLT but is skewed toward the dawn. Since a similar result has been reported for another event of the oxygen torus in a previous study, a crescent-shaped torus or a pinched torus centered around dawn may be a general feature of the O + density enhancement in the inner magnetosphere. We newly find that an electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave in the H + band appeared coincidently with the oxygen torus. From the lower cutoff frequency of the EMIC wave, the ion composition of the oxygen torus is estimated to be 80.6% H + , 3.4% He + , and 16.0% O + . According to the linearized dispersion relation for EMIC waves, both He + and O + ions inhibit EMIC wave growth and the stabilizing effect is stronger for He + than O + . Therefore, when the H + fraction or M is constant, the denser O + ions are naturally accompanied by the more tenuous He + ions, resulting in a weaker stabilizing effect (i.e., larger growth rate). From the Probe B observations, we find that the growth rate becomes larger in the oxygen torus than in the adjacent regions in the plasma trough and the plasmasphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing the quantification of aerosol-cloud interactions with the CALIPSO-CloudSat-Aqua/MODIS record

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are assessed over the non-polar ocean using more than 11 years of combined Aqua-MODIS, CALIPSO-CALIOP, and CloudSat products. The analysis first shows the benefit of incorporating vertically resolved aerosol extinction coefficient (σext) in aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) assessments, demonstrating that: σext vertically collocated with the cloud layer () correlates best with cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) cannot explain the Nd variability in the extratropics, and the S-shape of the AOD-Nd relationship reported in previous studies is not replicated when using instead of AOD, with a Nd- linearity more consistent with in-situ studies over the ocean. ACI metric, estimated as the log-scale regression between CALIOP and MODIS Nd reveals that the eastern Pacific is the region with the strongest ACI, followed by the Southern Ocean. The susceptibility of clouds to changes in their liquid water path (LWP) and frequency of precipitation followed a 2-step calculation by combining the Nd- regression (ACI) with the regression between these macrophysical variables and Nd. LWP susceptibility is negative (LWP decreases with aerosol loading) and statistically significant over the eastern Pacific, eastern Atlantic, and extratropics. In contrast, vast areas of the tropical and subtropical ocean feature negligible changes in LWP with aerosol. Precipitation frequency susceptibility is negative, but the values are only significant over the coastal eastern Pacific and Atlantic. The findings suggest that previous modeling assessments relying on AOD may need to be revisited by taking advantage of the synergy between passive and active sensors.

Li, Zhujun↗
NASA NTRS1971

Investigation of flaw geometry and loading effects on plane strain fracture in metallic structures

The effects on fracture and flaw growth of weld-induced residual stresses, combined bending and tension stresses, and stress fields adjacent to circular holes in 2219-T87 aluminum and 5AI-2.5Sn(ELI) titanium alloys were evaluated. Static fracture tests were conducted in liquid nitrogen; fatigue tests were performed in room air, liquid nitrogen, and liquid hydrogen. Evaluation of results was based on linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts and was directed to improving existing methods of estimating minimum fracture strength and fatigue lives for pressurized structure in spacecraft and booster systems. Effects of specimen design in plane-strain fracture toughness testing were investigated. Four different specimen types were tested in room air, liquid nitrogen and liquid hydrogen environments using the aluminum and titanium alloys. Interferometry and holograph were used to measure crack-opening displacements in surface-flawed plexiglass test specimens. Comparisons were made between stress intensities calculated using displacement measurements, and approximate analytical solutions.

Hall, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The infinum principle

A complete theory of necessary and sufficient conditions is discussed for a control to be superior with respect to a nonscalar-valued performance criterion. The latter maps into a finite dimensional, integrally closed directed, partially ordered linear space. The applicability of the theory to the analysis of dynamic vector estimation problems and to a class of uncertain optimal control problems is demonstrated.

Geering, H. P.↗
NASA NTRS1973

An application of a linear programing technique to nonlinear minimax problems

A differential correction technique for solving nonlinear minimax problems is presented. The basis of the technique is a linear programing algorithm which solves the linear minimax problem. By linearizing the original nonlinear equations about a nominal solution, both nonlinear approximation and estimation problems using the minimax norm may be solved iteratively. Some consideration is also given to improving convergence and to the treatment of problems with more than one measured quantity. A sample problem is treated with this technique and with the least-squares differential correction method to illustrate the properties of the minimax solution. The results indicate that for the sample approximation problem, the minimax technique provides better estimates than the least-squares method if a sufficient amount of data is used. For the sample estimation problem, the minimax estimates are better if the mathematical model is incomplete.

Schiess, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Algorithm for identification of a single class

The class of nonlinear dynamic systems, which is described by the integral Hammerstein operator is discussed. The input and output signals of the system, the nonlinear amplification coefficient, and weighting function are broken down by linear-independent functions in Hermite and Laguerre polynomials. The algorithm for calculating parameter estimates, and the reduction of the estimates are discussed along with generalization in the case of a multidimensional system, and the physical interpretation of the examined class of systems.

Kaminskas, V. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The infimum principle

This paper reports a reasonably complete theory of necessary and sufficient conditions for a control to be superior with respect to a nonscalar-valued performance criterion. The latter maps into a finite-dimensional integrally closed directed partially ordered linear space. The applicability of the theory to the analysis of dynamic vector estimation problems and to a class of uncertain optimal control problems is demonstrated.

Geering, H. P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Design of reduced-order controllers for large flexible space structures

Several approaches to the design of reduced-order controllers for large space structures are discussed. The approaches are based on linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control theory and include truncation, singular perturbation regulator and estimator, direct sensor feedback, higher-order estimator, and selective suppression of some of the uncontrolled or 'residual' modes. Numerical results are given for a long free-free beam. Sufficient conditions for stability in the presence of control and observation spillovers are outlined. It is shown that the system considered can be satisfactorily controlled using a single torque generator and one attitude and one rate sensor.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Analytical techniques for the analysis of stall/spin flight test data

Analytical techniques for the analysis of stall/spin flight test data are reviewed by discussing (1) certain special flight instrumentation issues, (2) the mathematical modeling techniques, and (3) the analysis of post stall and spinning flight of general aviation airplanes. The angles of attack, sideslip, roll, pitch, and yaw are derived from measurements of angular velocity and linear acceleration. The key to the success of this approach is to simultaneously estimate both the biases in the instrumentation and the initial conditions. Techniques for determining stability derivatives from flight data are applied to angles of attack too high for stabilized flight. This practice greatly expands the range over which aerodynamic characteristics can be determined from flight test. Nonlinear terms in certain aerodynamic functions are shown to be valid by comparing them with the trends of results at different angles of attack. A very old technique of studying spins is extended and applied to some modern light airplanes. Airplanes for which the wing provides the dominant moments during spins, offer the possibility of linking spin characteristics to longitudinal data.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Methods of sequential estimation for determining initial data in numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.

Cohn, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Wing Subsonic Aerodynamic Performance Estimates

Solution by iteration estimates performance of twisted and cambered wings of arbitrary planform. SUBAER based on linearized theory lifting-surface solution provides spanwise distribution of theoretical leading edge thrust, in addition to surface distribution of perturbation velocities. Program written in FORTRAN IV.

Carlson, H. W.↗