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The importance of phonon spectrum measurements for accurate prediction of thermal scattering laws [Slides]

Although approximate phonon spectra (e.g. Debye model) are sufficient to reproduce integral quantities (e.g. total INS cross section) in reasonable agreement with the measured data, more accurate phonon spectra are needed to achieve agreement with the differential data. SANS component is essential for reproducing the total scattering cross section; this is the case for nanodiamonds and other materials where SANS components are present (such as porous materials like nuclear graphite). A format proposal for SANS data in ENDF or GNDS is needed. Therefore, differential (e.g. phonon spectrum) and integral (e.g. total cross section) measurements are necessary in the process of creating an ENDF evaluation. We have successfully developed a method by which ENDF evaluations can be directly compared to the relevant experimentally measured quantities. INS experiments at SNS, ILL, ISIS, and, in the future, ESS, as well as total cross section measurements at the VESUVIO instrument at ISIS, are accessible through user programs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

An empirical study of FORTRAN programs for parallelizing compilers

Some results are reported from an empirical study of program characteristics that are important in parallelizing compiler writers, especially in the area of data dependence analysis and program transformations. The state of the art in data dependence analysis and some parallel execution techniques are examined. The major findings are included. Many subscripts contain symbolic terms with unknown values. A few methods of determining their values at compile time are evaluated. Array references with coupled subscripts appear quite frequently; these subscripts must be handled simultaneously in a dependence test, rather than being handled separately as in current test algorithms. Nonzero coefficients of loop indexes in most subscripts are found to be simple: they are either 1 or -1. This allows an exact real-valued test to be as accurate as an exact integer-valued test for one-dimensional or two-dimensional arrays. Dependencies with uncertain distance are found to be rather common, and one of the main reasons is the frequent appearance of symbolic terms with unknown values.

Shen, Zhiyu↗

An expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

A new rule-based, machine independent analytical tool was designed for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies using an expert system. Expert systems provide an effective method for saving knowledge, allow computers to sift through large amounts of data pinpointing significant parts, and most importantly, use heuristics in addition to algorithms, which allow approximate reasoning and inference and the ability to attack problems not rigidly defined. The knowledge base consists of over two-hundred (200) rules and provides links to historical and environmental databases. The environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose. The system's driver translates forward chaining rules into a backward chaining sequence, prompting the user for information pertinent to the causes considered. The use of heuristics frees the user from searching through large amounts of irrelevant information and allows the user to input partial information (varying degrees of confidence in an answer) or 'unknown' to any question. The modularity of the expert system allows for easy updates and modifications. It not only provides scientists with needed risk analysis and confidence not found in algorithmic programs, but is also an effective learning tool, and the window implementation makes it very easy to use. The system currently runs on a Micro VAX II at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The inference engine used is NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS).

Rolincik, Mark↗

A satellite-borne radar wind sensor (RAWS)

Modeling global atmospheric circulations and forecasting the weather would improve if worldwide information on winds aloft were available. Accurate prediction of weather is important to agriculture, shipping, air traffic, and many other fields. Global system models of climate are of great importance. Current global atmospheric models use pressure measurements and thermodynamic properties to calculate the effects of wind for use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Inputs to the NWP models are temperature, pressure and wind velocities at different heights. Clearly direct wind measurements could significantly improve the NWP model performance. The RAdar Wind Sounder (RAWS) program at the University of Kansas is a study of the feasibility and the trade-offs in the design of a space-based radar system to measure wind vectors. This can be done by measuring the Doppler shift of cloud and rain returns from three or more points and calculating the components of the wind vector. The RAWS study to date uses the candidate system selected after preliminary study of frequencies and sensitivities. Two frequencies chosen, 10 and 35 GHz, allow higher sensitivity for clouds and more penetration for rain. The past year was devoted to modeling the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) achievable for the two frequencies. The determination of SNR versus cloud penetration depth used a cloud backscattering and attenuation model in the appropriate radar equation. Calculations assumed reasonable losses in reception and transmission, in addition to the atmospheric attenuation. We discovered that ice clouds provide a higher SNR than previously calculated, but some water clouds give lower SNRs than we calculated before. One of the primary issues in the SNR calculation was the choice of the drop size distribution. Although Xin used several distributions (e.g., log normal, Khrigian and Mazin), this year we used the Deirmendjian cloud model. SNR versus cloud penetration plots were generated to validate the candidate system. Rain, which appears in the cloud models at the lower altitudes, provides ample SNR, as do the higher clouds composed of ice particles. However, in some cloud situations we found the sensitivity for the clouds was marginal or inadequate. At 35 GHz, two of the cloud models characterized by 1 to 2 g/cu m of water content at altitudes extending from 150 to 1500 meters, produced a sufficient SNR. Other models, however, with water contents ranging from 0.5 to 4 g/cu m and altitudes up to 4000 meters, exhibit SNR of -3 to -23 dB, largely because of attenuation in the upper cloud layers. These results coupled with the lower SNR at 10 GHz, led to an investigation of alternate frequencies. The rain present beneath these clouds provides adequate SNR at 10 GHz, and in most cases, at GHz.

Moore, Richard K.↗

Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA's Constellation System

In 2004 NASA began implementation of the first phases of a new space exploration policy. This implementation effort included the development of a new human-carrying spacecraft, known as Orion; the Altair lunar lander; and two new launch vehicles, the Ares I and Ares V rockets.collectively called the Constellation System (described in Chapter 5 of this report). The Altair lunar lander, which is in the very preliminary concept stage, is not discussed in detail in the report. In 2007 NASA asked the National Research Council (NRC) to evaluate the science opportunities enabled by the Constellation System. To do so, the NRC established the Committee on Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA's Constellation System. In general, the committee interpreted "Constellation-enabled" broadly, to include not only mission concepts that required Constellation, but also those that could be significantly enhanced by Constellation. The committee intends this report to be a general overview of the topic of science missions that might be enabled by Constellation, a sort of textbook introduction to the subject. The mission concepts that are reviewed in this report should serve as general examples of kinds of missions, and the committee s evaluation should not be construed as an endorsement of the specific teams that developed the mission concepts or of their proposals. Additionally, NASA has a well-developed process for establishing scientific priorities by asking the NRC to conduct a "decadal survey" for a particular discipline. Any scientific mission that eventually uses the Constellation System will have to be properly evaluated by means of this decadal survey process. The committee was impressed with the scientific potential of many of the proposals that it evaluated. However, the committee notes that the Constellation System has been justified by NASA and selected in order to enable human exploration beyond low Earth orbit.not to enable science missions. Virtually all of the science mission concepts that could take advantage of Constellation s unique capabilities are likely to be prohibitively expensive. Several times in the past NASA has begun ambitious space science missions that ultimately proved too expensive for the agency to pursue. Examples include the Voyager-Mars mission and the Prometheus program and its Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter spacecraft (both examples are discussed in Chapter 1). Finding: The scientific missions reviewed by the committee as appropriate for launch on an Ares V vehicle fall, with few exceptions, into the "flagship" class of missions. The preliminary cost estimates, based on mission concepts that at this time are not very detailed, indicate that the costs of many of the missions analyzed will be above $5 billion (in current dollars). The Ares V costs are not included in these estimates. All of the costs discussed in this report are presented in current-year (2008) dollars, not accounting for potential inflation that could occur between now and the decade in which these missions might be pursued. In general, preliminary cost estimates for proposed missions are, for many reasons, significantly lower than the final costs. Given the large cost estimates for many of the missions assessed in this report, the potentially large impacts on NASA's budget by many of these missions are readily apparent.

Source record↗

Generation and evaluation of synthetic patient data

Background: Machine learning (ML) has made a significant impact in medicine and cancer research; however, its impact in these areas has been undeniably slower and more limited than in other application domains. A major reason for this has been the lack of availability of patient data to the broader ML research community, in large part due to patient privacy protection concerns. High-quality, realistic, synthetic datasets can be leveraged to accelerate methodological developments in medicine. By and large, medical data is high dimensional and often categorical. These characteristics pose multiple modeling challenges. Methods: In this paper, we evaluate three classes of synthetic data generation approaches; probabilistic models, classification-based imputation models, and generative adversarial neural networks. Metrics for evaluating the quality of the generated synthetic datasets are presented and discussed. Results: While the results and discussions are broadly applicable to medical data, for demonstration purposes we generate synthetic datasets for cancer based on the publicly available cancer registry data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Specifically, our cohort consists of breast, respiratory, and non-solid cancer cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2015, which includes over 360,000 individual cases. Conclusions: We discuss the trade-offs of the different methods and metrics, providing guidance on considerations for the generation and usage of medical synthetic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Correcting the PFNS for more consistent fission modeling

For FY20, we had a deliverable to write a report detailing efforts to simultaneously evaluate both the prompt neutron multiplicity, $\overline{ν}$, and the prompt neutron fission neutron spectrum, PFNS, using CGMF. CGMF is the LANL-developed fission fragment decay code that consistently evaporates prompt neutrons and γ rays using the Hauser-Feshbach statistical theory of compound reactions. The decay begins by constructing the initial conditions of the fission fragments, then decaying each one from the excited state by neutrons and γ rays, conserving energy, momentum, spin, and parity in each step of the emission. The initial conditions of the fragments, along with the multiplicity, energy, and direction of each emitted neutron or γ ray, are recorded, allowing for the full reconstruction of the fission event. These event histories allow us to reconstruct average quantities, as well as correlations between observables, that can be compared with experimental or evaluated data. In that initial report, although there was already a favorable comparison between $\overline{ν}$ from CGMF, experiment, and the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation, we showed that there was still significant work to be done to improve the PFNS from CGMF. Historically, the PFNS is calculated too soft by Hauser-Feshbach fission models, and CGMF is no exception. The incorrect shape presents a significant challenge in fission modeling, including for our understanding of the fission process and for our ability to consistently calculate and predict a variety of prompt fission observables (such as fission fragment initial conditions, neutron and γ-ray multiplicities and energies, and the correlations between all observables). In our companion report, we detail our success in using CGMF to evaluate $\overline{ν}$. Although not included in the optimization explicitly, we also keep the initial conditions of the fission fragments physical, along with reproducing reasonably well the neutron multiplicity distribution. As we would expect from the sensitivities calculations from, the average neutron energies change very little from the $\overline{ν}$ optimization along with the PFNS (as will be shown in Sec. 2.6). The conclusion was that the global and statistical models would have to be investigated instead of just the fission fragment initial conditions (as is sufficient for $\overline{ν}$). This report details those efforts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Utility Energy Service Contract Guide: A Resource for Contracting Officers Working on UESC Projects

A Utility Energy Service Contract (UESC) is a limited-source contract between a federal agency and serving utility for energy management services including energy and water efficiency improvements and demand-reduction services. In a UESC, the Contracting Officer (CO) will lead the acquisition effort, supported by technically knowledgeable staff working closely with the utility, to assess potential, investigate technical and economic feasibility, and ensure a fair and reasonable price for design and implementation of the project. The UESC Guide is a compilation of samples and templates developed as a resource to help COs implement Task Orders (TOs) for UESCs under existing U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) Areawide Contracts (AWC). All samples and templates provided in this guide were derived from actual UESC project contract documents and will be available for download on FEMP’s website at https://www.energy.gov/node/850656. Templates in Microsoft Word can be modified to address each agency’s unique acquisition process.

Federal Energy Management Program↗

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Numerical optimization design of advanced transonic wing configurations

A computationally efficient and versatile technique for use in the design of advanced transonic wing configurations has been developed. A reliable and fast transonic wing flow-field analysis program, TWING, has been coupled with a modified quasi-Newton method, unconstrained optimization algorithm, QNMDIF, to create a new design tool. Fully three-dimensional wing designs utilizing both specified wing pressure distributions and drag-to-lift ration minimization as design objectives are demonstrated. Because of the high computational efficiency of each of the components of the design code, in particular the vectorization of TWING and the high speed of the Cray X-MP vector computer, the computer time required for a typical wing design is reduced by approximately an order of magnitude over previous methods. In the results presented here, this computed wave drag has been used as the quantity to be optimized (minimized) with great success, yielding wing designs with nearly shock-free (zero wave drag) pressure distributions and very reasonable wing section shapes.

Cosentino, G. B.↗

Numerical optimization design of advanced transonic wing configurations

A computationally efficient and versatile technique for use in the design of advanced transonic wing configurations has been developed. A reliable and fast transonic wing flow-field analysis program, TWING, has been coupled with a modified quasi-Newton method, unconstrained optimization algorithm, QNMDIF, to create a new design tool. Fully three-dimensional wing designs utilizing both specified wing pressure disributions and drag-to-lift ratio minimization as design objectives are demonstrated. Because of the high computational efficiency of each of the components of the design code, in particular the vectorization of TWING and the high speed of the Cray X-MP vector computer, the computer time required for a typical wing design is reduced by approximately an order of magnitude over previous methods. In the results presented here, this computed wave drag has been used as the quantity to be optimized (minimized) with great success, yielding wing designs with nearly shock-free (zero wave drag) pressure distributions and very reasonable wing section shapes.

Cosentino, G. B.↗

Performance characterization of a segmented anode arcjet thruster

Results are presented from a continuing experimental program aimed at providing insight into arc energy deposition in the nozzle, the nature of the arc attachment, and its effects on performance characteristics of the device. A modular, 1-2 kW class arcjet thruster incorporating a segmented anode/nozzle was run on a thrust stand to determine performance characteristics under a number of experimental conditions. The nozzle comprised five axial conducting segments isolated from each other by boron nitride spacers. The electrical configuration permitted the current delivered to the arcjet to be collected at any combination of segments. It is concluded that the changes in the electric field in the nozzle that occur as a result of the changes in the current distribution do not significantly affect the momentum transfer or loss mechanisms in the type of nozzle investigated. Performance characteristics show that the segmented anode reasonably simulates the behavior of solid anodes of similar geometry.

Curran, Francis M.↗

NASA 2nd Generation RLV Program Introduction, Status and Future Plans

The Space Launch Initiative (SLI), managed by the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (2ndGen RLV) Program, was established to examine the possibility of revolutionizing space launch capabilities, define conceptual architectures, and concurrently identify the advanced technologies required to support a next-generation system. Initial Program funds have been allocated to design, evaluate, and formulate realistic plans leading to a 2nd Gen RLV full-scale development (FSD) decision by 2006. Program goals are to reduce both risk and cost for accessing the limitless opportunities afforded outside Earth's atmosphere fo civil, defense, and commercial enterprises. A 2nd Gen RLV architecture includes a reusable Earth-to-orbit launch vehicle, an on-orbit transport and return vehicle, ground and flight operations, mission planning, and both on-orbit and on-the-ground support infrastructures All segments of the architecture must advance in step with development of the RLV if a next-generation system is to be fully operational early next decade. However, experience shows that propulsion is the single largest contributor to unreliability during ascent, requires the largest expenditure of time for maintenance, and takes a long time to develop; therefore, propulsion is the key to meeting safety, reliability, and cost goals. For these reasons, propulsion is SLI's top technology investment area.

Dumbacher, Dan L.↗

An in-flight technique for wind measurement in support of the space shuttle program

A technique to use an aircraft to measure wind profiles in the altitude range of 1,500 to 18,200 m was demonstrated at NASA Ames-Dryden. This demonstration was initiated to determine if an aircraft could measure wind profiles in support of space shuttle launches. The Jimsphere balloon is currently the device used to measure pre-launch wind profiles for the space shuttle. However, it takes approximately an hour for the Jimsphere to travel through the altitudes of interest. If these wind instruments could be taken with an aircraft closer to launch in a more timely manner and with the same accuracy as a Jimsphere balloon, some uncertainties in the measurements could be removed. The aircraft used for this investigation was an F-104G which is capable of flight above 18,000 m. It had conventional research instrumentation to provide air data and flow angles along with a ring laser gyro inertial navigation system (INS) to provide inertial and Euler angle data. During the course of 17 flights, wind profiles were measured in 21 climbs and 18 descents. Preliminary comparisons between aircraft measured wind profiles and Jimsphere measured profiles show reasonable agreement (within 3 m/sec). Most large differences between the profiles can usually be explained by large spatial or time differences between the Jimsphere and aircraft measurements, the fact that the aircraft is not in a wings-level attitude, or INS shifts caused by aircraft maneuvering.

Bjarke, Lisa J.↗

Specialized zones of development in roots

The authors propose using the term "distal elongation zone" (DEZ) rather than "postmitotic isodiametric growth zone" to refer to the group of cells between the apical meristem and the elongation zone in plant roots. Reasons presented for the change are that the proposed DEZ includes many cells that are still dividing, most cells in the region are not isodiametric, and the pattern of cell expansion in this region varies with position in the region. Cells in the DEZ respond to gravistimulation, mechanical impedance, electrotropic stimulation, water stress, and auxin. Differences in gene expression patterns between DEZ cells and cells in the main elongation zone are noted.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

Hydrogen desorption from the surface and subsurface of cobalt

The influence of coverage on the diffusion of hydrogen into the subsurface of cobalt was studied using density functional theory (DFT) and temperature programmed desorption (TPD). DFT calculations show that as the hydrogen coverage on Co(0001) increases, the barrier for hydrogen diffusion into the bulk decreases by 20%. Additionally, subsurface hydrogen on a hydrogen covered surface was found to be more stable when compared to a clean cobalt surface. To test these theoretical findings experimentally, excited hydrogen was used in an ultra-high vacuum environment to access higher hydrogen coverages. Here, our TPD studies showed that at high hydrogen coverages, a sharp low temperature feature appeared, indicating the stabilization of subsurface hydrogen. Further DFT calculations indicate that this sharp low temperature feature results from associative hydrogen desorption from a hydrogen saturated surface with a population of subsurface hydrogen. Microkinetic modelling was used to model the TPD spectra for hydrogen desporption from cobalt with and without subsurface hydrogen, showing reasonable agreement with experiment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activaties are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with software such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

High-temperature steam oxidation testing of select advanced replacement alloys for potential core internals

Coupons from a total of fourteen commercial and custom fabricated alloys were exposed to 1 bar full steam with ~10 ppb oxygen content at 600 and 650°C. The coupons were weighed at 500-h intervals with a total exposure time of 5,000 h. The fourteen alloys are candidate alloys selected under the ARRM program, which include three ferritic steels (Grade 92, 439, and 14YWT), three austenitic stainless steels (316L, 310, and 800), seven Ni-base superalloys (X750, 725, C22, 690, 625, 625 direct-aging, and 625- plus), and one Zr-alloy (Zr–2.5Nb). Among the alloys, 316L and X750 are served as reference alloys for low- and high-strength alloys, respectively. The candidate Ni-base superalloy 718 was procured too late to be included in the tests. The corrosion rates of the candidate alloys can be approximately interpreted by their Cr, Ni and Fe content. The corrosion rate was significantly reduced with increasing Cr content and when Ni content is above ~15 wt%, but not much further reduced when Fe content is less than ~55 wt%. Simplified thermodynamics analyses of the alloy oxidation provided reasonable indications for the constituents of oxide scales formed on the alloys and explanations for the porosity and exfoliation phenomena because of the nature of specific types of oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗