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DOE OSTI2016

A slippery slope: systematic uncertainties in the line width baryonic Tully-Fisher relation

The baryonic Tully–Fisher relation (BTFR) is both a valuable observational tool and a critical test of galaxy formation theory. We explore the systematic uncertainty in the slope and the scatter of the observed line-width BTFR utilizing homogeneously measured, unresolved H i observations for 930 isolated galaxies. We measure a fiducial relation of log{sub 10} M{sub baryon}=3.24 log{sub 10} V{sub rot} + 3.21 with observed scatter of 0.25 dex over a baryonic mass range of 10{sup 7.4} to 10{sup 11.3} M{sub ⊙} where V{sub rot} is measured from 20% H i line widths. We then conservatively vary the definitions of M{sub baryon} and V{sub rot}, the sample definition and the linear fitting algorithm. We obtain slopes ranging from 2.64 to 3.53 and scatter measurements ranging from 0.14 to 0.41 dex, indicating a significant systematic uncertainty of 0.25 in the BTFR slope derived from unresolved H i line widths. We next compare our fiducial slope to literature measurements, where reported slopes range from 3.0 to 4.3 and scatter is either unmeasured, immeasurable, or as large as 0.4 dex. Measurements derived from unresolved H i line widths tend to produce slopes of 3.3, while measurements derived strictly from resolved asymptotic rotation velocities tend to produce slopes of 3.9. The single largest factor affecting the BTFR slope is the definition of rotation velocity. The sample definition, the mass range and the linear fitting algorithm also significantly affect the measured BTFR. We find that galaxies in our sample with V{sub rot}<100 km s{sup −1} are consistent with the line-width BTFR of more massive galaxies, but these galaxies drive most of the observed scatter. It is critical when comparing predictions to an observed BTFR that the rotation velocity definition, the sample selection and the fitting algorithm are similarly defined. We recommend direct statistical comparisons between data sets with commensurable properties as opposed to simply comparing BTFR power-law fits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

From Neutron Star Observables to the Equation of State. II. Bayesian Inference of Equation of State Pressures

One of the key goals of observing neutron stars is to infer the equation of state (EoS) of the cold, ultradense matter in their interiors. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical method of inferring the pressures at five fixed densities, from a sample of mock neutron star masses and radii. We show that while five polytropic segments are needed for maximum flexibility in the absence of any prior knowledge of the EoS, regularizers are also necessary to ensure that simple underlying EoS are not over-parameterized. For ideal data with small measurement uncertainties, we show that the pressure at roughly twice the nuclear saturation density, ρ{sub sat}, can be inferred to within 0.3 dex for many realizations of potential sources of uncertainties. The pressures of more complicated EoS with significant phase transitions can also be inferred to within ∼30%. We also find that marginalizing the multi-dimensional parameter space of pressure to infer a mass–radius relation can lead to biases of nearly 1 km in radius, toward larger radii. Using the full, five-dimensional posterior likelihoods avoids this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1966

Sample quadratic variation of sample continuous second order martingales Technical report no. 12

Sample quadratic variation of sample continuous second order martingales

STATISTICAL PROBABILITY↗

NASA NTRS1981

On estimating the effects of clock instability with flicker noise characteristics

A scheme for flicker noise generation is given. The second approach is that of successive segmentation: A clock fluctuation is represented by 2N piecewise linear segments and then converted into a summation of N+1 triangular pulse train functions. The statistics of the clock instability are then formulated in terms of two sample variances at N+1 specified averaging times. The summation converges very rapidly that a value of N 6 is seldom necessary. An application to radio interferometric geodesy shows excellent agreement between the two approaches. Limitations to and the relative merits of the two approaches are discussed.

Wu, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A technique for evaluating the influence of spatial sampling on the determination of global mean total columnar ozone

A technique is described for providing a means of evaluating the influence of spatial sampling on the determination of global mean total columnar ozone. A finite number of coefficients in the expansion are determined, and the truncated part of the expansion is shown to contribute an error to the estimate, which depends strongly on the spatial sampling and is relatively insensitive to data noise. First and second order statistics are derived for each term in a spherical harmonic expansion which represents the ozone field, and the statistics are used to estimate systematic and random errors in the estimates of total ozone.

Tolson, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Estimating the Lifetimes of Nickel/Cadmium Cells

Equation based on model of flaw growth. Model assumes cell fails by growth of preexisting flaws. Flaws described by three important quantities: total number of flaws, distribution of flaw sizes and rate of flaw growth. When flaw reaches critical size failure occurs. Flaw concept, in addition to providing ready explanation for reduced lifetime, predicts two important charateristics: statistical variability of lifetime data and dependence of lifetime on volume of sample.

Fedors, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Orbital and cloud cover sampling analyses for space lidar missions

The sampling capabilities of an orbital lidar mission are evaluated. Spatial and temporal sampling data from a lidar spacecraft orbit simulation are combined with global, statistical cloud cover data to yield a quantification of lidar measurement opportunities for both partly cloudy and mostly overcast viewing conditions. The optimum launch time (month and local hour) is determined to maximize lidar measurement opportunities for specified cloud cover conditions. Results indicate that the time of year selected for the lidar mission is very important in maximizing acceptable data return, whereas the effect of launch time of day on mission optimization is generally not as strong as the seasonal effect.

Lawrence, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS1986

On the association of magnetic clouds with disappearing filaments

Evidence is presented that an interplanetary magnetic cloud preceding an interaction region, observed at earth on January 24, 1974, is associated with the eruptive filament of disparition brusque (DB) near central meridian on January 18. The DB was also associated with a long-decay soft X ray transient and a long-duration gradual-rise-and-fall radio burst. To assess whether magnetic clouds are generally associated with DBs, results from statistical testing of the relation of 33 magnetic clouds (and 33 control samples without magnetic clouds) to disappearing filaments near central meridian (approximately less than 45 deg central meridian distance) are presented. The hypothesis that magnetic cloud are the 1-AU counterparts of either eruptive filaments or the coronal mass ejections which probably accompany them is supported. The major result is that disappearing filaments occur more frequently on the days when magnetic clouds are launched than on control days, a result obtained with greater than 99 pct confidence. There is a suggestion that clouds following shocks, probably launched at times of solar flares, are not as strongly associated with disappearing filaments as are clouds launched less violently.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Multispectral retrieval of rainfall rates using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)

Collocated SSM/I and radar measurements are compared to model simulated radiances upwelling from precipitating clouds. A methodology maximizing the correlation between the radar rain rate estimates and surface rainfall amounts is presented, along with data sources and samples. Geolocation of both the satellite and radar data is assessed, and statistical rainfall-rate retrieval algorithms are analyzed. Regression analysis of collocated SSM/I brightness-temperature measurements and radar-derived rainfall rates show the potential of the SSM/I to provide 25-km resolution rain-rate estimates over land and ocean surfaces.

Olson, William S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Indian Ocean analyses

The background and goals of Indian Ocean thermal sampling are discussed from the perspective of a national project which has research goals relevant to variation of climate in Australia. The critical areas of SST variation are identified. The first goal of thermal sampling at this stage is to develop a climatology of thermal structure in the areas and a description of the annual variation of major currents. The sampling strategy is reviewed. Dense XBT sampling is required to achieve accurate, monthly maps of isotherm-depth because of the high level of noise in the measurements caused by aliasing of small scale variation. In the Indian Ocean ship routes dictate where adequate sampling can be achieved. An efficient sampling rate on available routes is determined based on objective analysis. The statistical structure required for objective analysis is described and compared at 95 locations in the tropical Pacific and 107 in the tropical Indian Oceans. XBT data management and quality control methods at CSIRO are reviewed. Results on the mean and annual variation of temperature and baroclinic structure in the South Equatorial Current and Pacific/Indian Ocean Throughflow are presented for the region between northwest Australia and Java-Timor. The mean relative geostrophic transport (0/400 db) of Throughflow is approximately 5 x 106 m3/sec. A nearly equal volume transport is associated with the reference velocity at 400 db. The Throughflow feeds the South Equatorial Current, which has maximum westward flow in August/September, at the end of the southeasterly Monsoon season. A strong semiannual oscillation in the South Java Current is documented. The results are in good agreement with the Semtner and Chervin (1988) ocean general circulation model. The talk concludes with comments on data inadequacies (insufficient coverage, timeliness) particular to the Indian Ocean and suggestions on the future role that can be played by Data Centers, particularly with regard to quality control of data as research bodies are replaced by operational bodies in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Meyers, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1991

Land cover stratification using Landsat Thematic Mapper data in Sahelian and Sudanian woodland and wooded grassland

A standard methodology for thematic mapping of natural vegetation using remotely sensed imagery and digital image processing was modified to account for the spatial and spectral properties of semi-arid landscapes, and tested in study areas in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones, Mali. A principal components transformation of registered wet and dry season Landsat TM images produced a set of synthetic spectral channels differentiating vegetation cover between seasons, and allowed areas with annual grass growth to be distinguished from areas with woody cover. The transformed data were statistically clustered and clusters were assigned to vegetation type and density categories. In a separate step, the images were manually interpreted to differentiate broad soil classes. Four statistics were compared to evaluate the accuracy of the maps based on sample points from air photos. For the relatively detailed categories initially defined, map accuracies were substandard; however, when vegetation density classes were aggregated, overall accuracy was around 90 percent, and class accuracy was greater than 80 percent for most classes. This method is suitable for stratification and inventory of woody biomass at a regional scale in semi-arid woodland and wooded grassland.

Franklin, J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Double troughs in broad absorption line quasars and Ly-alpha-N V line-locking

It was investigated whether the double trough (DT) structure in the mean C IV BAL trough reported by Weymann et al. (1991) is real or due to statistical fluctuations of BAL troughs over random outflow velocities in a limited sample. A sample of 72 BAL QSOs with C IV BAL troughs was analyzed. It is found that only 22 percent of the sample explicitly exhibits the DT feature; when present the DTs are deep. A Monte Carlo simulation of the mean C IV BAL suggests that the DT feature is real at only the 95-98 percent level.

Korista, Kirk T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A high-resolution survey of interstellar Na I D1 lines

We present high-resolution (0.5 km/s) spectra, obtained with the McDonald Observatory 2.7 m coude echelle spectrograph, of interstellar Na I D1 absorption toward 38 bright stars. Numerous narrow, closely blended absorption components, showing resolved Na I hyperfine structure, are evident in these spectra; such narrow components appear in both low halo and quite local gas, as well as in gas toward more distant disk stars. We have used the method of profile fitting in an attempt to determine column densities, line widths, and velocities for the individual interstellar clouds contributing to the observed absorption lines. The resulting sample of 276 clouds is significantly larger, and likely more complete, than several previous samples of 'individual' interstellar clouds, and allows more precise investigation of various statistical properties. We find that the cloud column density (N) and line width parameter (b) are not correlated, for 0.3 km/s approximately less than b approximately less than 1.5 km/s and 10.0/sq cm approximately less than log (N(Na I)) approximately less than 11.6/sq cm. The median b is about 0.73 km/s, the median log N is about 11.09/sq cm, and the median separation between adjacent components is about 2.0 km/s. All these are overestimates of the true median values, however, due to our inability to completely resolve all the component structure present in some cases; even at a resolution of 0.5 km/s, we may have discerned only 60% of the full number of individual components actually present. The one-dimensional dispersion of component velocities, in the local standard of rest, is approximately 8.6 km/s; the distribution of velocities is broader and displaced to more negative velocities for the weaker components. If 80 K is a representative temperature for the interstellar clouds seen in Na I absorption, then at least 38% (and probably the majority) of the clouds have subsonic internal turbulent motions. The range in N(H I) observed at a given N(Na I) increases as N(Na I) decreases below about 10(exp 11)/sq cm, so that N(Na I) becomes a less reliable predictor of N(H I) at low column densities. These spectra will be quite useful in future detailed studies of these lines of sight with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) echelle -- to determine accurate velocities and to reveal the detailed interstellar component structures that cannot be discerned at the 3.5 km/s resolution available with the GHRS.

Welty, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Back Propagation Neural Networks for Predicting Ultimate Strengths of Unidirectional Graphite/Epoxy Tensile Specimens

The research presented herein demonstrates the feasibility of predicting ultimate strengths in simple composite structures through a neural network analysis of their acoustic emission (AE) amplitude distribution data. A series of eleven ASTM D-3039 unidirectional graphite/epoxy tensile samples were loaded to failure to generate the amplitude distributions for this analysis. A back propagation neural network was trained to correlate the AE amplitude distribution signatures generated during the first 25% of loading with the ultimate strengths of the samples. The network was trained using two sets of inputs: (1) the statistical parameters obtained from a Weibull distribution fit of the amplitude distribution data, and (2) the event frequency (amplitude) distribution itself. The neural networks were able to predict ultimate strengths with a worst case error of -8.99% for the Weibull modeled amplitude distribution data and 3.74% when the amplitude distribution itself was used to train the network. The principal reason for the improved prediction capability of the latter technique lies in the ability of the neural network to extract subtle features from within the amplitude distribution.

Walker, James L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observational Review of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The observed gamma-ray temporal, spectral, intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of GRBs, primarily from data obtained from the Compton Observatory, will be described. The talk will concentrate on recent studies of burst properties, correlations of GRB parameters and other statistical studies that have only recently come to light with the unprecedented sample of over two thousand GRBs, along with some mention of studies in progress by members of the BATSE team. Recent studies of possible observational biases, un-triggered GRBs and threshold calculations for BATSE will also be described.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Observational Review of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The observed gamma-ray temporal, spectral, intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of GRBs (Gamma Ray Bursts), primarily from data obtained from the Compton Observatory, will be described. The talk will concentrate on recent studies of burst properties, correlations of GRB parameters and other statistical studies that have only recently come to light with the unprecedented sample of over two thousand GRBs, along with some mention of studies in progress by members of the BATSE (Burst and Transient Source Experiment) team. Recent studies of possible observational biases, un-triggered GRBs and threshold calculations for BATSE will also be described.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observational Review of Gamma-Ray Bursts

Fishman, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Optimal Scales for Comparing Satellite and Rain-Gauge Rainfall Estimates for Verification Purposes

In spite of all their problems, rain gauges measure rainfall in such a direct way when compared with other methods of estimating rainfall that comparing their totals to satellite estimates remains an essential tool in the validation of satellite products. Some disagreement between averages of satellite data and rain-gauge data is expected because of the very different sampling patterns of the two systems--the satellite provides only occasional snapshots of large areas, whereas rain gauges provide continuous measurements over very small areas. The comparison of the two requires that some quantitative measure be supplied for the amount of disagreement that can be tolerated due to the differences in sampling. As part of an effort to determine the sampling error of satellite averages, a space-time model for rainfall statistics was developed and its parameters fit to radar data from a field experiment conducted near the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Atlantic (GATE). Although the model was intended to represent the statistics of relatively large scale fluctuations of rain, it is surprisingly consistent with the very different scales on which rain gauges observe. It can therefore be used to study some of the issues involved with comparing rain-gauge averages to satellite averages. Its implications for the best time and space scales for comparing the two will be discussed.

Bell, Thomas L.↗