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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

CFD Fuel Slosh Modeling of Fluid-Structure Interaction in Spacecraft Propellant Tanks with Diaphragms

Liquid sloshing within spacecraft propellant tanks causes rapid energy dissipation at resonant modes, which can result in attitude destabilization of the vehicle. Identifying resonant slosh modes currently requires experimental testing and mechanical pendulum analogs to characterize the slosh dynamics. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques have recently been validated as an effective tool for simulating fuel slosh within free-surface propellant tanks. Propellant tanks often incorporate an internal flexible diaphragm to separate ullage and propellant which increases modeling complexity. A coupled fluid-structure CFD model is required to capture the damping effects of a flexible diaphragm on the propellant. ANSYS multidisciplinary engineering software employs a coupled solver for analyzing two-way Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) cases such as the diaphragm propellant tank system. Slosh models generated by ANSYS software are validated by experimental lateral slosh test results. Accurate data correlation would produce an innovative technique for modeling fuel slosh within diaphragm tanks and provide an accurate and efficient tool for identifying resonant modes and the slosh dynamic response.

Sances, Dillon J.↗

TU-AB-BRC-02: Accuracy Evaluation of GPU-Based OpenCL Carbon Monte Carlo Package (goCMC) in Biological Dose and Microdosimetry in Comparison to FLUKA Simulations

Purpose: One of the most accurate methods for radiation transport is Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Long computation time prevents its wide applications in clinic. We have recently developed a fast MC code for carbon ion therapy called GPU-based OpenCL Carbon Monte Carlo (goCMC) and its accuracy in physical dose has been established. Since radiobiology is an indispensible aspect of carbon ion therapy, this study evaluates accuracy of goCMC in biological dose and microdosimetry by benchmarking it with FLUKA. Methods: We performed simulations of a carbon pencil beam with 150, 300 and 450 MeV/u in a homogeneous water phantom using goCMC and FLUKA. Dose and energy spectra for primary and secondary ions on the central beam axis were recorded. Repair-misrepair-fixation model was employed to calculate Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE). Monte Carlo Damage Simulation (MCDS) tool was used to calculate microdosimetry parameters. Results: Physical dose differences on the central axis were <1.6% of the maximum value. Before the Bragg peak, differences in RBE and RBE-weighted dose were <2% and <1%. At the Bragg peak, the differences were 12.5% caused by small range discrepancy and sensitivity of RBE to beam spectra. Consequently, RBE-weighted dose difference was 11%. Beyond the peak, RBE differences were <20% and primarily caused by differences in the Helium-4 spectrum. However, the RBE-weighted dose agreed within 1% due to the low physical dose. Differences in microdosimetric quantities were small except at the Bragg peak. The simulation time per source particle with FLUKA was 0.08 sec, while goCMC was approximately 1000 times faster. Conclusion: Physical doses computed by FLUKA and goCMC were in good agreement. Although relatively large RBE differences were observed at and beyond the Bragg peak, the RBE-weighted dose differences were considered to be acceptable.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Emulator of PR‐DNS: Accelerating Dynamical Fields With Neural Operators in Particle‐Resolved Direct Numerical Simulation

Abstract Particle‐resolved direct numerical simulations (PR‐DNS) play an increasing role in investigating aerosol‐cloud‐turbulence interactions at the most fundamental level of processes. However, the high computational cost associated with high resolution simulations poses considerable challenges for large domain or long duration simulation using PR‐DNS. To address these issues, here we present an emulator of the complex physics‐based PR‐DNS developed by use of the data‐driven Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method. The effectiveness of the method is showcased by presenting turbulence and temperature fields in a two‐dimensional space. The results demonstrate high accuracy at various resolutions and the emulator is two orders of magnitude cheaper in terms of computational demand compared to the physics‐based PR‐DNS model. Furthermore, the FNO emulator exhibits strong generalization capabilities for different initial conditions and ultra‐high‐resolution without the need to retrain models. These findings highlight the potential of the FNO method as a promising tool to simulate complex fluid dynamics problems with high accuracy, computational efficiency, and generalization capabilities, enhancing our understanding of the aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation system.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Simulated Fuel Usage for Drag Compensated Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit

Atmospheric drag causes the greatest uncertainty in the spacecraft flight dynamics equation for spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The continuously varying atmospheric density levels require increased spacecraft tracking to accurately predict spacecraft location. In addition, periodic propulsive maneuvers must be designed and performed to counteract the effects of drag on the spacecraft orbit. If atmospheric drag effects can be continuously and autonomously counteracted through the use of a drag-free control system, they will essentially be eliminated from the spacecraft flight dynamics equation. The main perturbations on the spacecraft will then be those due to the Earth s gravitational field, which are easily predicted. Although theoretically beneficial from a flight dynamics perspective, the costs associated with drag-free control must be determined and weighed against those benefits before the feasibility of drag-free control of spacecraft in LEO can be determined. Through the use of a MATLAEV Satellite Tool Kit simulation, this paper attempts to quantify one such cost associated with drag-free control: the amount of fuel needed for continuous drag compensation as measured by cumulative orbital velocity changes, or AV. This AV cost can then be compared to the fuel required for more traditional, periodic orbit raising maneuvers of every two to four weeks. The simulation considers various sized spacecraft, as measured by the spacecraft ballistic coefficient, in circular orbits of various altitudes and inclinations. The time between orbit raising maneuvers is allowed to decrease until it approaches near continuous. In this manner, the trend in AV cost can be seen as drag compensation moves from periodic to near continuous.

Fleck, Melissa E.↗

Analysis of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Debris: Historical Perspective from Space Shuttle and Application to Artemis I

Human exploration-class launch vehicles are inherently prone to debris due to the extreme environments generated during pre-launch operations, liftoff, and flight. The use of cryogenic propellants often requires thermal protection system (TPS) coatings, typically foam, to maintain the propellant conditions in the tank and prevent an accumulation ice on the external surface of the vehicle. Some ice growth is to be expected at umbilical interfaces, vents, flanges, or brackets where it is difficult to apply TPS. This ice may come loose at any time due to wind on the launch pad, structural vibration and acoustics after rocket ignition, or aerodynamic forces during flight. This phenomena is especially apparent on vehicles with no TPS, such as the Saturn V rockets used in the Apollo Program, see Figure 1. During propellant tanking, the thermal contraction of the underlying substrate may generate cracks in the TPS (Figure 1). Chunks of TPS can release due to the expansion of ingested gas from cryopumping or from aerodynamic forces if the crack creates an offset surface. Most foams will also have a certain amount of “popcorning” where small pieces of foam will pop off during flight because of the differential between the static surface pressure and the pressure of the gas trapped in the foam cell structure. There are a number of other coating or closeout materials that may be shed from the vehicle and become debris. During pre-launch operations and liftoff, the vehicle may also be exposed to debris originating from the launch pad or ground support equipment. This debris is separate from foreign object debris, or FOD, which is not intended to be present and is strictly controlled through operations and maintenance procedures. In this case, debris is generated from hardware and materials that are necessary for launch and are subject to the intense vibration, acoustics, and direct plume impingement of the launch environment. Examples include ice from umbilicals, tape and tie wraps that protect cables, and rust or corrosion from the launch platform. While NASA has historically been aware of debris as a potential issue that could cause a failure resulting in loss of mission, loss of vehicle, or loss of crew, the likelihood and severity of that risk was not always well understood or given sufficient weight in program and flight decisions. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident (STS-107), the investigation found that foam TPS debris shed from the external tank was the proximate cause of the damage to the orbiter wing. Six previous observations of debris released from the foam ramp that covered the bipod connecting the forward end of the orbiter to the external tank resulted in minor changes or were determined to be accepted flight risks. Two occurrences of bipod ramp foam loss were not identified until the STS-107 investigation. Despite the damage inflicted by these debris strikes, the Shuttle Program Requirements Control Board deemed the vehicle safe to fly. During the Return to Flight effort following the Columbia disaster, NASA Engineering developed a process for the assessment of debris transport, impact, and damage tolerance to support independent assessments of risk by NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). Under this system, each element (vehicle or ground system) defines a catalog of all expected debris based on launch history, component testing, or analysis. Debris transport analysis (DTA) is conducted using the debris catalog characteristics and potential flow transport mechanisms (e.g., vehicle aerodynamics, gravity, wind, plume-driven). The predicted debris impact locations and velocities are provided to the hardware owners, who use available test data and analysis to determine whether each component can withstand the impacts. In cases where the element hardware may be severely damaged or fail, the options are to mitigate the debris source through some change in design or operation, or to work with S&MA to try to characterize the probability of the impact and damage for program risk acceptance. Because of the differences in debris characteristics and transport, the DTA has been divided between the Liftoff and Ascent regimes. The development and application of Liftoff DTA methodology from the Shuttle Program to the current Artemis Program is the subject of this paper. Liftoff DTA covers the time from the start of pre-launch operations at the launch pad, up until the vehicle clears the launch tower and there is no longer any interaction with ground systems. Debris transport during this period is broadly classified as either gravity, wind, and plume-entrained (GWPE) or plume driven (PD). GWPE debris is generally lower speed, travelling in a forward-to-aft direction. PD transport includes flow features from the rocket ignition transient, as well as plume impingement and recirculation that occur as the vehicle lifts off the launch platform. In these cases, the debris typically moves in an aft-to-forward direction at higher speeds. The applicable transport mechanisms must be considered for each piece of debris depending on the material, and release location and time. For example, rust or metallic debris from the tower could fall (GWPE) and impact the vehicle before landing on the launch platform deck where it could be also be transported by plume impingement (PD). However, falling ice (GWPE) from an umbilical is unlikely to survive impact with the vehicle or launch platform and be available for PD transport. Modeling of debris transport is accomplished using a set of DTA tools which simulate debris trajectories subject to a reference frame acceleration (i.e., gravity) and aerodynamic drag. Where the trajectory encounters a solid surface, the debris is allowed to rebound with a specified coefficient of restitution. The drag is calculated by interpolating the fluid state at each point in the debris trajectory from high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the launch vehicle and pad. The CFD data may either be static (steady state or time averaged), typically for GWPE transport, or dynamic (time-accurate) for PD flow features like the ignition transient. Examples of the CFD flow field solutions for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and launch pad are shown in Figure 2. Typical SLS debris trajectory predictions from DTA are illustrated in Figure 3. The final version of this paper will include a more detailed examination of the Liftoff DTA process developed during the Shuttle Program, and how it has been augmented and applied to the SLS rocket under the Artemis Program. Comparisons with debris observations from the Artemis I launch will demonstrate validation of the tools and methodology.

Debris↗

Information criteria for quantifying loss of reversibility in parallelized KMC

Parallel Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a potent tool to simulate stochastic particle systems efficiently. However, despite literature on quantifying domain decomposition errors of the particle system for this class of algorithms in the short and in the long time regime, no study yet explores and quantifies the loss of time-reversibility in Parallel KMC. Inspired by concepts from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose the entropy production per unit time, or entropy production rate, given in terms of an observable and a corresponding estimator, as a metric that quantifies the loss of reversibility. Typically, this is a quantity that cannot be computed explicitly for Parallel KMC, which is why we develop a posteriori estimators that have good scaling properties with respect to the size of the system. Through these estimators, we can connect the different parameters of the scheme, such as the communication time step of the parallelization, the choice of the domain decomposition, and the computational schedule, with its performance in controlling the loss of reversibility. From this point of view, the entropy production rate can be seen both as an information criterion to compare the reversibility of different parallel schemes and as a tool to diagnose reversibility issues with a particular scheme. As a demonstration, we use Sandia Lab's SPPARKS software to compare different parallelization schemes and different domain (lattice) decompositions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Applications Using the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management Tool-set - 16335

The Office of Soil and Groundwater of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) developed the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). The ASCEM tool-sets can be used for making informed choices in uncertain and complex environments, where cost-benefits of environmental impacts and human health need to be considered. The deployments and demonstrations show how ASCEM provides a unified framework that facilitates efficient modeling and analyses to address costs and benefits of engineering and remediation decisions: - Evaluation of engineered remediation and monitoring strategies at the Savannah River Site (SRS) F-Area in collaboration with the Office of Soil and Groundwater Remediation, Attenuation-Based Remedies in the Subsurface Applied Field Research Initiative; - Assessment of performance assessment issues and waste tank closure at SRS; - Evaluation of alternative conceptual models for the deep vadose zone at the Hanford Site, supporting waste tank closure. The ASCEM tool-sets enable computationally efficient representations of the complex subsurface systems, including fractured and faulted volcanic and carbonate aquifers, a very deep water table, and multiple contaminant sources. The applications demonstrate that deployment of the ASCEM tool-sets provides an opportunity to reduce conservatisms in modeling assessments and allows detailed investigation of alternative conceptual models. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Building a virtual planet

The virtual Planetary Laboratory (VPL) is a recently funded 5-yr project, which seeks toimprove our understanding of the range of plausible environments and the likely signatures for life on extrasolar terrestrial planets. To achieve these goals we are developing a suite of innovative modeling tools to simulate the environments and spectra of extrasolar planets. The core of the VPL IS a coupled radiative transfer/climate/chemistry model, which is augmented by interchangeable modules which characterize geological, exogenic, atmospheric escape, and life processes. The VPL is validated using data derived from terrestrial planets within our own solar system. The VPL will be used to explore the plausible range of atmospheric composittions and globally averaged spectra for extrasolar planets and for early Earth, and will improve our understanding of the effect of life on a planet's atmospheric spectrum and composition. The models will also be used to create a comprehensive spectral catalog to provide recommendations on the optimum wavelength range, spectral resolution, and instrument sensitivity required to characterize extrasolar terrestrial planets. Although developed by our team, the VPL is envisioned to be a comprehensive and flexible tool, which can be collaboratively used by the broader planetary science and astrobiology communities. This presentation will describe the project concept, the tasks involved, and will outline current progress to date. This work is funded by the NASA Astrobiology Institute.

astrobiology↗

Analysis, Simulation, and Verification of Knowledge-Based, Rule-Based, and Expert Systems

Mathematically sound techniques are used to view a knowledge-based system (KBS) as a set of processes executing in parallel and being enabled in response to specific rules being fired. The set of processes can be manipulated, examined, analyzed, and used in a simulation. The tool that embodies this technology may warn developers of errors in their rules, but may also highlight rules (or sets of rules) in the system that are underspecified (or overspecified) and need to be corrected for the KBS to operate as intended. The rules embodied in a KBS specify the allowed situations, events, and/or results of the system they describe. In that sense, they provide a very abstract specification of a system. The system is implemented through the combination of the system specification together with an appropriate inference engine, independent of the algorithm used in that inference engine. Viewing the rule base as a major component of the specification, and choosing an appropriate specification notation to represent it, reveals how additional power can be derived from an approach to the knowledge-base system that involves analysis, simulation, and verification. This innovative approach requires no special knowledge of the rules, and allows a general approach where standardized analysis, verification, simulation, and model checking techniques can be applied to the KBS.

Hinchey, Mike↗

Development of MOSCATO: A CFD-Level Electrochemistry and Corrosion Simulator for Molten Salt Systems

For both coolant and fueled variants of molten salt reactors (MSRs), the corrosion of structural materials is a significant challenge. The corrosion stems from chemical and electrochemical reactions initiated by fissile material, fission products, and impurities in the salt. Lower-fidelity models rely on empirical correlations for mass transfer, simplified lumped temperature profiles, and similar assumptions. They do not capture detailed spatial variations in complex geometries, creating the need for high-fidelity modeling to bridge this gap.As we approach the demonstration and possible deployment of MSRs in this decade, the development of a high-fidelity, high-performance simulator becomes imperative. To simulate the complex electrochemical environment and corrosion within molten salt systems, we have developed the Molten Salt Chemistry And TranspOrt (MOSCATO) code. This endeavor is comprised of three essential components. First, mass transfer equations are coupled with the Navier-Stokes equations in order to account for the transport of species in the salt. Second, the diffusion of alloy constituents, such as Cr, Fe, Ni, etc. is simulated within the structural metals. Third, the alloy and salt domains are coupled to account for the heterogeneous chemical and electrochemical reactions that occur at the salt-alloy interface.MOSCATO manages all three components within the framework of the highly scalable, open-source spectral element method computational fluid dynamics code Nek5000/NekRS. This integration enables MOSCATO to harness the immense computational power of modern high-performance computing resources, ensuring both high fidelity and computational speed.In addition to code development, we have initiated a comprehensive verification and validation campaign, utilizing data from diverse sources. First, MOSCATO's electrochemical solver was verified with reference numerical data. Then validation occurred against experiments: one of a thermal galvanic cell and the other for corrosion in flowing molten salt of FLiNaK (LiF-NaF-KF). This campaign verified and validated MOSCATO as a reliable tool for simulating electrochemical environments and corrosion in molten salt systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Contact pressure analysis to allow improved design for the clearing plate in a biomass comminution system

For biomass processing systems, feedstocks with small but equal sizes can improve flowability and thermochemical outputs. The Crumbler rotary shear system was designed to achieve such ideal feedstocks to reduce costs and energy throughout the biomass supply chain. Improving the wear resistance of major components in this system is important to decrease the cost. Accelerating the feedstock flow through the rotary shear machine plays an equivalent role of improving its efficiency. An analytical analysis and a finite-element analysis of the stationary clearing plate are presented in this work. Here, these tools are used to investigate the effect of contact surface curvature on the impact pressure. The optimized new clearing plate design is expected to improve the component’s lifetime and wood chips flowability. The field tests confirm that the trend of the new clearing plate design guided by FEA. The optimization method, model verification, and validation experience applied in this work can also be applied to other static components with similar simple contact wear problems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mars Science Laboratory Entry Descent and Landing Simulation Using DSENDS

The most recent planetary science mission to Mars is Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) with the Curiosity rover, launched November 26, 2011 and landed at Gale Crater on August 6, 2012. This spacecraft was the first use at Mars of a complete closed-loop Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C) system, including guided entry with a lifting body that greatly reduces dispersions during the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) phase to achieve a 25 km x 20 km landing error relative to the selected Gale Crater landing target. In order to confirm meeting the above landing criteria, high-fidelity simulation of the EDL phase is required. The tool used for 6DOF EDL trajectory verification analysis is Dynamics Simulator for Entry, Descent and Surface landing (DSENDS), which is a high-fidelity simulation tool from JPLs Dynamics and Real-Time Simulation Laboratory for the development, test and operations of aero-flight vehicles. DSENDS inherent capability is augmented for MSL with project-specific models of atmosphere, aerodynamics, sensors and thrusters along with GN&C flight software to enable high-fidelity trajectory simulation. This paper will present the model integration and independent verification experience of the JPL EDL trajectory analysis team.

Mars↗

Mars Science Laboratory Entry Descent and Landing Simulation Using DSENDS

The most recent planetary science mission to Mars was Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) with the Curiosity rover, launched November 26, 2011 and landed at Gale Crater on August 6, 2012. This spacecraft was the first use at Mars of a complete closed-loop Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C) system, including guided entry with a lifting body that greatly reduces dispersions during the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) phase to achieve a 25 km X 20 km landing error relative to the selected Gale Crater landing target. In order to confirm meeting the above landing criteria, high-fidelity simulation of the EDL phase is required. The tool used for 6DOF EDL trajectory verification analysis is Dynamics Simulator for Entry, Descent and Surface landing (DSENDS), which is a high-fidelity simulation tool from JPLs Dynamics and Real-Time Simulation Laboratory for the development, test and operations of aero-flight vehicles. DSENDS inherent capability is augmented for MSL with project-specific models of atmosphere, aerodynamics, sensors and thrusters along with GN&C flight software to enable high-fidelity trajectory simulation. This paper will present the model integration and independent verification experience of the JPL EDL trajectory analysis team.

Burkhart, P. Daniel↗

Effects of Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) on Turbulent Combustion and Emissions in Advanced Gas Turbine Combustors with High-Hydrogen-Content (HHC) Fuels (Final Report)

This Final Report documents the entire four years of the Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0011822, from October 1, 2013 through September 30, 2017, that was competitively awarded under Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0000795 in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) University Turbine Systems Research (UTSR) Program. Under the UTSR Program, DOE typically issues Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) solicitations every 1-2 years so that U.S. colleges/universities may propose research & development (R&D) projects in specific technical topic areas (e.g., combustion, aerodynamics/heat transfer, advanced materials) that have been identified as both scientifically and industrially relevant to the gas turbine industry. The primary objectives of this Purdue University project (in collaboration with Princeton University through a sub-award) was to develop experimental methods, kinetic models, and numerical tools to help quantify and predict the impact of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) on NOx and CO emissions, combustion kinetics, radiation heat transfer, turbulent combustion, and combustion instabilities for natural gas and high hydrogen content (HHC) fuels by using laminar and turbulent flow reactors and gas turbine combustors operating at high temperatures and pressures. This project has obtained detailed data for improving chemical kinetic models to study EGR effects and provide insight into the effects of EGR on flame speeds and turbulent flame structure, as well as assessing the impact of EGR on emissions in a high-pressure combustion test rig. The project was divided into six primary tasks: 1) Project Management and Program Planning; 2) Flow Reactor Investigation of EGR Chemical Kinetics; 3) Combustion Bomb Investigation of EGR Effects on Flame Speed; 4) Investigation of EGR Effects on Turbulent Flame Structure in Reactor-Assisted Turbulent Slot (RATS) Burner; 5) Investigation of EGR Effects in Purdue Staged Combustion Test Rig; and 6) Development and Validation of a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) Tool for Gas Turbine Combustion and Emission Modeling using HHC Fuels. Details on the execution and results of each of these tasks are provided in the main report. To assist the reader, each task is described in a chapter-like format with its own separate listing of tables, figures, and references so that the results of each task/subtask (i.e., technical sections covering various experiments and modeling work focused on a specific area) can be quickly obtained while also getting an overall feel of the project execution. This chapter-like format also allows for acknowledgement of support from other programs relative to specific tasks. In this manner, the reader can more conveniently digest the R&D results in the various task/subtask sections that may be of most interest to the reader. In addition to this Final Report, the Purdue/Princeton team was able to publish 7 journal articles and provide 7 presentations at national scientific meetings/conferences to disseminate results. A listing of these journal articles and presentations is provided at the end of this report

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Correlated prompt fission data in transport simulations

Detailed information on the fission process can be inferred from the observation, modeling and theoretical understanding of prompt fission neutron and γ-ray observables. Beyond simple average quantities, the study of distributions and correlations in prompt data, e.g., multiplicity-dependent neutron and γ-ray spectra, angular distributions of the emitted particles, n -n, n - γ, and γ - γ correlations, can place stringent constraints on fission models and parameters that would otherwise be free to be tuned separately to represent individual fission observables. The FREYA and CGMF codes have been developed to follow the sequential emissions of prompt neutrons and γ rays from the initial excited fission fragments produced right after scission. Both codes implement Monte Carlo techniques to sample initial fission fragment configurations in mass, charge and kinetic energy and sample probabilities of neutron and γ emission at each stage of the decay. This approach naturally leads to using simple but powerful statistical techniques to infer distributions and correlations among many observables and model parameters. The comparison of model calculations with experimental data provides a rich arena for testing various nuclear physics models such as those related to the nuclear structure and level densities of neutron-rich nuclei, the γ-ray strength functions of dipole and quadrupole transitions, the mechanism for dividing the excitation energy between the two nascent fragments near scission, and the mechanisms behind the production of angular momentum in the fragments, etc. Beyond the obvious interest from a fundamental physics point of view, such studies are also important for addressing data needs in various nuclear applications. The inclusion of the FREYA and CGMF codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes, for instance, provides a new and powerful tool to simulate correlated fission events in neutron transport calculations important in nonproliferation, safeguards, nuclear energy, and defense programs. Here, this review provides an overview of the topic, starting from theoretical considerations of the fission process, with a focus on correlated signatures. It then explores the status of experimental correlated fission data and current efforts to address some of the known shortcomings. Numerical simulations employing the FREYA and CGMF codes are compared to experimental data for a wide range of correlated fission quantities. The inclusion of those codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes is described and discussed in the context of relevant applications. The accuracy of the model predictions and their sensitivity to model assumptions and input parameters are discussed. Lastly, a series of important experimental and theoretical questions that remain unanswered are presented, suggesting a renewed effort to address these shortcomings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Air Conditioning Fuel Use and Impact of Solar/Thermal Control Technologies

To reduce fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from mobile air conditioning (A/C) systems, 'U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards' identified solar/thermal technologies such as solar control glazings, solar reflective paint, and active and passive cabin ventilation in an off-cycle credit menu. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers developed a sophisticated analysis process to calculate U.S. light-duty A/C fuel use that was used to assess the impact of these technologies, leveraging thermal and vehicle simulation analysis tools developed under previous U.S. Department of Energy projects. Representative U.S. light-duty driving behaviors and weighting factors including time-of-day of travel, trip duration, and time between trips were characterized and integrated into the analysis. In addition, U.S. weather conditions weighted based on light-duty vehicle registrations were generated and used for the analysis. Three representative vehicle types for the light-duty fleet were selected based on registration data containing vehicle size information. These key inputs were used to support a weighted parametric analysis that quantified vehicle thermal load, vehicle accessory load, and vehicle fuel use. This analysis estimates that 7.6 billion gallons of fuel a year are used in the United States for vehicle A/C, equivalent to 6.1% of the total national light-duty vehicle fuel use. This equates to 30.0 gallons/year per vehicle or 23.5 grams CO 2 per mile (g/mi) for an average U.S. light-duty vehicle. A/C is a significant contributor to national fuel use; therefore, technologies that reduce A/C loads have an opportunity to reduce fuel consumption, reduce imported oil, and improve energy security. Implementing solar control glass reduced the CO 2 emissions by 2.0 g/mi and the reduction due to solar reflective paint was 0.8 g/mi. The active and passive ventilation strategies as defined in this analysis only reduced emissions by 0.1 and 0.2 g/mi, respectively. This analysis shows the potential to reduce operational costs, A/C fuel use, and CO 2 emissions by implementing advanced vehicle climate control technologies including the solar/thermal technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Applying queueing theory to evaluate wait-time-savings of triage algorithms

Abstract In the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have made promising impacts in many areas of healthcare. One application is AI-enabled prioritization software known as computer-aided triage and notification (CADt). This type of software as a medical device is intended to prioritize reviews of radiological images with time-sensitive findings, thus shortening the waiting time for patients with these findings. While many CADt devices have been deployed into clinical workflows and have been shown to improve patient treatment and clinical outcomes, quantitative methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings from their deployment are not yet available. In this paper, we apply queueing theory methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings of a CADt by calculating the average waiting time per patient image without and with a CADt device being deployed. We study two workflow models with one or multiple radiologists (servers) for a range of AI diagnostic performances, radiologist’s reading rates, and patient image (customer) arrival rates. To evaluate the time-saving performance of a CADt, we use the difference in the mean waiting time between the diseased patient images in the with-CADt scenario and that in the without-CADt scenario as our performance metric. As part of this effort, we have developed and also share a software tool to simulate the radiology workflow around medical image interpretation, to verify theoretical results, and to provide confidence intervals for the performance metric we defined. We show quantitatively that a CADt triage device is more effective in a busy, short-staffed reading setting, which is consistent with our clinical intuition and simulation results. Although this work is motivated by the need for evaluating CADt devices, the evaluation methodology presented in this paper can be applied to assess the time-saving performance of other types of algorithms that prioritize a subset of customers based on binary outputs.

Thompson, Yee Lam Elim (ORCID:0000000196537707)↗