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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Histologic Analysis with the Newly Designed Exoskeleton Seal{sup ®} Stent-Graft in the Porcine Abdominal Aorta

Purpose: To investigate the technical feasibility of a novel exoskeleton Seal{sup ®} stent-graft and analyze early histologic changes in the porcine abdominal aorta. Materials and Methods: Six pigs received an abdominal stent-graft (Group I), and six received an iliac branch stent-graft (Group II). Groups were subdivided as follows: Group Ia, which received three bifurcated main-body stent-grafts; Group Ib, which received three bifurcated main-body stent-grafts with both iliac graft-stents; Group IIa, which received three simple uni-iliac tapered stent-grafts; and Group IIb, which received three uni-iliac tapered tapered stent-grafts with right straight limb and left branched limb. Statistical analyses were performed with the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and mixed-model regression analysis. Results: The primary technical success rate (< 24 h) was 83% because of two acute thromboses in the lumen of the stented abdominal aorta immediately after stent-graft placement. At 4 weeks, late thrombosis occurred in two pigs. Higher mean neointimal hyperplasia areas (23.5% vs. 16.2%; P = .047), neointimal hyperplasia thicknesses (545.5 μm vs. 422.2 μm; P = .001), and degrees of collagen deposition (2.71 vs. 2.33; P = .002) were observed at the bare-metal stent-graft compared with the proximal exoskeleton portion of the stent-graft, with no significant differences between the patent and occluded groups or among the four types of stent-grafts. Conclusions: The exoskeleton stent-graft demonstrates 66% of patency rate during 1-month follow-up due to four cases of thromboses; however, the endothelialization on the junction of proximal graft showed no significant differences between the patent and occluded groups. Further studies should investigate long-term outcomes with prolonged neointimal hyperplasia.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Numerical groundwater-flow modeling to evaluate potential effects of pumping and recharge: implications for sustainable groundwater management in the Mahanadi delta region, India

Process-based groundwater models are useful to understand complex aquifer systems and make predictions about their response to hydrological changes. A conceptual model for evaluating responses to environmental changes is presented, considering the hydrogeologic framework, flow processes, aquifer hydraulic properties, boundary conditions, and sources and sinks of the groundwater system. Based on this conceptual model, a quasi-three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was designed using MODFLOW to simulate the groundwater system of Mahanadi River delta, eastern India. The model was constructed in the context of an upper unconfined aquifer and lower confined aquifer, separated by an aquitard. Hydraulic heads of 13 shallow wells and 11 deep wells were used to calibrate transient groundwater conditions during 1997–2006, followed by validation (2007–2011). The aquifer and aquitard hydraulic properties were obtained by pumping tests and were calibrated along with the rainfall recharge. The statistical and graphical performance indicators suggested a reasonably good simulation of groundwater flow over the study area. Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater level is most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivities of both the aquifers, followed by vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining layer. The calibrated model was then employed to explore groundwater-flow dynamics in response to changes in pumping and recharge conditions. The simulation results indicate that pumping has a substantial effect on the confined aquifer flow regime as compared to the unconfined aquifer. The results and insights from this study have important implications for other regional groundwater modeling studies, especially in multi-layered aquifer systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dietary uptake of geosmin in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss )

Geosmin is a primary source of muddy/earthy ‘off-flavors’ in farmed fish, which may render their organoleptic quality unacceptable to consumers. Model systems of geosmin uptake typically comprise exposure to waterborne geosmin that is absorbed via the gills. The present research demonstrates dietary exposure as an alternative route of geosmin uptake in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fillets. Trout (average initial weight of 355 g) were stocked in quadruplicate compartmentalized raceways (N = 4 compartments per treatment, n = 50 fish per compartment) supplied with first-use, flow-through water (4.5 complete turnovers per hour). Fish were fed diets containing 0 (control dose), 0.005 (low dose), 0.05 (medium dose), or 0.5 (high dose) mg geosmin/kg feed at 1% body weight/day for four weeks. Fillets (12 fillets/diet/week plus 12 pre-trial fillet samples) and weekly feed and water samples were analyzed via GC–MS to determine geosmin concentrations. Feeding behavior was documented daily according to a four-point scale. ANOVA with post-hoc Tukey tests and polynomial contrast, regression, correlation, and chi-squared statistical analyses were applied to data (α = 0.05 significance level). Palatability of feed did not hinder consumption of the geosmin-spiked feeds: although fish responded positively to all feeds, the most aggressive feeding behavior was observed among those fed medium and high dose feed. Geosmin was effectively imparted into fillets after one week, and no significant temporal effect was found after four weeks. Mean geosmin concentrations significantly increased in fillets from low (mean of 26 ng/kg geosmin) to medium (202 ng/kg) to high (441 ng/kg) dose feed groups during the trial. Polynomial contrasts and regression modeling validated this significant positive effect of dose on geosmin uptake, with an estimated 166 ng/kg rise in fillet-geosmin for every log 10 increase in feed concentration. Waterborne geosmin levels immediately post-feeding were conditionally independent of concentrations in feed and fillets, therefore dietary uptake was affirmed as the predominant mechanism of absorption in the present experimental system. Finally, based on these findings, geosmin-spiked feeds may be used to induce predictable, repeatable levels of this off-flavor compound in fillets and serve as a model system for further investigation of sensory quality and off-flavor mitigation strategies for farm-raised fish.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transported PDF Modeling of Compressible Turbulent Reactive Flows by using the Eulerian Monte Carlo Fields Method

Although the transported probability density function (PDF) method has been developed for decades, its application has been mainly focused on the low-Mach number flow problems. This work extends the transported PDF method to compressible flow problems. The Eulerian Monte Carlo fields (EMCF) solution method is employed to solve the transported PDF equation for compressible flow problems. A pseudo stagnation enthalpy is introduced and its stochastic partial differential equation is derived to ensure total energy conservation numerically. A new mixing model called interaction by partial exchange with mean (IPEM) is introduced to expand the available choices of mixing models for the EMCF method. The consistency of the EMCF method is examined for solving the transported PDF equation. Numerical implementation details are discussed, such as the density coupling between the compressible flow solver and the EMCF solver, discretization schemes for the mixing terms and the stochastic terms. The implemented compressible flow solver coupled with the EMCF solver is verified and validated in a series of test cases with increasing level of complexity, ranging from a statistically one-dimensional turbulent mixing layer to a self-excited resonance model rocket combustor. It is observed that in general with the increase of compressibility, there is an increase in the sensitivity of the modeling results to the different models and algorithms. This makes it necessary to develop a thorough understanding of the model sensitivity in order to develop a robust and accurate simulation solver for highly compressible turbulent reactive flows. The thermo-acoustic instability inside the model rocket combustor case is captured reasonably, which demonstrates the overall capability of the developed compressible turbulent combustion solver based on the transported PDF method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing computation in an i-vector speaker recognition system using a tree-structured universal background model

The majority of state-of-the-art speaker recognition systems (SR) utilize speaker models that are derived from an adapted universal background model (UBM) in the form of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). This is true for GMM supervector systems, joint factor analysis systems, and most recently i-vector systems. In all of the identified systems, the posterior probabilities and sufficient statistics calculations represent a computational bottleneck in both enrollment and testing. We propose a multi-layered hash system, employing a tree-structured GMM–UBM which uses Runnalls’ Gaussian mixture reduction technique, in order to reduce the number of these calculations. Moreover, with this tree-structured hash, we can trade-off reduction in computation with a corresponding degradation of equal error rate (EER). As an example, we also reduce this computation by a factor of 15× while incurring less than 10% relative degradation of EER (or 0.3% absolute EER) when evaluated with NIST 2010 speaker recognition evaluation (SRE) telephone data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deep potential generation scheme and simulation protocol for the Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 -type superionic conductors

We report solid-state electrolyte materials with superior lithium ionic conductivities are vital to the next-generation Li-ion batteries. Molecular dynamics could provide atomic scale information to understand the diffusion process of Li-ion in these superionic conductor materials. Here, we implement the deep potential generator to set up an efficient protocol to automatically generate interatomic potentials for Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 -type solid-state electrolyte materials (Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 , Li 10 SiP 2 S 12 , and Li 10 SnP 2 S 12 ). The reliability and accuracy of the fast interatomic potentials are validated. With the potentials, we extend the simulation of the diffusion process to a wide temperature range (300 K–1000 K) and systems with large size (~1000 atoms). Important technical aspects such as the statistical error and size effect are carefully investigated, and benchmark tests including the effect of density functional, thermal expansion, and configurational disorder are performed. The computed data that consider these factors agree well with the experimental results, and we find that the three structures show different behaviors with respect to configurational disorder. Our work paves the way for further research on computation screening of solid-state electrolyte materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The agile alert system for gamma-ray transients

In recent years, a new generation of space missions has offered great opportunities for discovery in high-energy astrophysics. In this article we focus on the scientific operations of the Gamma-Ray Imaging Detector (GRID) on board the AGILE space mission. AGILE-GRID, sensitive in the energy range of 30 MeV-30 GeV, has detected many γ-ray transients of both galactic and extragalactic origin. This work presents the AGILE innovative approach to fast γ-ray transient detection, which is a challenging task and a crucial part of the AGILE scientific program. The goals are to describe (1) the AGILE Gamma-Ray Alert System, (2) a new algorithm for blind search identification of transients within a short processing time, (3) the AGILE procedure for γ-ray transient alert management, and (4) the likelihood of ratio tests that are necessary to evaluate the post-trial statistical significance of the results. Special algorithms and an optimized sequence of tasks are necessary to reach our goal. Data are automatically analyzed at every orbital downlink by an alert pipeline operating on different timescales. As proper flux thresholds are exceeded, alerts are automatically generated and sent as SMS messages to cellular telephones, via e-mail, and via push notifications from an application for smartphones and tablets. These alerts are crosschecked with the results of two pipelines, and a manual analysis is performed. Being a small scientific-class mission, AGILE is characterized by optimization of both scientific analysis and ground-segment resources. The system is capable of generating alerts within two to three hours of a data downlink, an unprecedented reaction time in γ-ray astrophysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Herschel far-infrared photometry of the swift burst alert telescope active galactic nuclei sample of the local universe. I. PACS observations

Far-Infrared (FIR) photometry from the Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer on the Herschel Space Observatory is presented for 313 nearby, hard X-ray selected galaxies from the 58 month Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) Active Galactic Nuclei catalog. The present data do not distinguish between the FIR luminosity distributions at 70 and 160 μm for Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies. This result suggests that if the FIR emission is from the nuclear obscuring material surrounding the accretion disk, then it emits isotropically, independent of orientation. Alternatively, a significant fraction of the 70 and 160 μm luminosity could be from star formation, independent of active galactic nucleus (AGN) type. Using a non-parametric test for partial correlation with censored data, we find a statistically significant correlation between the AGN intrinsic power (in the 14-195 keV band) and the FIR emission at 70 and 160 μm for Seyfert 1 galaxies. We find no correlation between the 14-195 keV and FIR luminosities in Seyfert 2 galaxies. The observed correlations suggest two possible scenarios: (1) if we assume that the FIR luminosity is a good tracer of star formation, then there is a connection between star formation and the AGN at sub-kiloparsec scales, or (2) dust heated by the AGN has a statistically significant contribution to the FIR emission. Using a Spearman rank-order analysis, the 14-195 keV luminosities for the Seyfert 1 and 2 galaxies are weakly statistically correlated with the F {sub 70}/F {sub 160} ratios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterization of UV optical components for photon detector calibration in liquid argon TPCs

Large liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs)require stable and well-characterized delivery of ultraviolet (UV)light for in situ calibration of photosensors at cryogenictemperatures. This article reports bench-top and cryogenicmeasurements of the optical components used in a UV lightcalibration system, including multi-mode fused-silica fibers,SMA-to-SMA connectors, optical fiber feedthroughs, andlight-diffuser assemblies. Light loss in several fiber types and SMAconnectors was measured across wavelengths from275–970 mm. In addition,light-loss measurements of the tested fibers after severalliquid-nitrogen thermal cycles showed no statistically significantdegradation relative to baseline measurements, and high-rate pulsedexposure (30–90 million pulses from a275 nm LED) likewise showed nomeasurable aging in jacketed fibers. A compact, palm-sized,3D-printed PEEK diffuser housing with stacked UV-grade fused-silicadiffusers yields Lambertian emission and the most uniform angulardistribution. Optical components exhibiting improved UV transmissionwere deployed successfully in multiple DUNE small- and large-scaleprototypes, demonstrating reliable operation of UV light calibrationsystem. These findings inform component selection and calibrationprocedures for achieving reliable, uniform UV light delivery inlarge-scale cryogenic detectors such as DUNE.

Behera, B. [South Dakota Sch. Mines Tech.] (ORCID:↗

A TARGETED SEARCH FOR POINT SOURCES OF EeV NEUTRONS

A flux of neutrons from an astrophysical source in the Galaxy can be detected in the Pierre Auger Observatory as an excess of cosmic-ray air showers arriving from the direction of the source. To avoid the statistical penalty for making many trials, classes of objects are tested in combinations as nine ''target sets'', in addition to the search for a neutron flux from the Galactic center or from the Galactic plane. Within a target set, each candidate source is weighted in proportion to its electromagnetic flux, its exposure to the Auger Observatory, and its flux attenuation factor due to neutron decay. These searches do not find evidence for a neutron flux from any class of candidate sources. Tabulated results give the combined p-value for each class, with and without the weights, and also the flux upper limit for the most significant candidate source within each class. These limits on fluxes of neutrons significantly constrain models of EeV proton emission from non-transient discrete sources in the Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Moment tensor event identification for collapses

SUMMARY We introduce a seismic identification method for collapse events using moment tensors (MTs). We start by computing full (six-element) MT solutions for 43 identified collapse events from around the world, and statistically characterizing the population on the MT hypersphere. We then test a large data set of over 1000 full MTs for the western U.S. against the distribution of collapses using a MT-based identification method similarly as used for testing explosions. Known collapses and explosions are readily identified, along with other anomalous events in the Geysers and central California coast. Misidentification rates are determined for various screening angles with optimal misidentification rates between earthquakes and collapses on the order of 3 per cent. The method is demonstrated to be very effective at identifying non-earthquake sources with a 97–98 per cent accuracy. It is likely to be transportable to other regions, and can be used for event identification anywhere full MT solutions are routinely calculated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

Effect of Air Plasma Sprayed Flash Bond Coatings on Furnace Cycle Lifetime of Disks and Rods

Air plasma sprayed (APS) flash coatings on high velocity oxygen fuel (HVOF) bond coatings are well known to extend the lifetime of thermal barrier coatings (TBCs). Recent work compared flash coatings of NiCoCrAlY and NiCoCrAlYHfSi applied to both rods and disk substrates of alloy 247. For rod specimens, 100 h cycles were used at 1100 °C in wet air. Both flash coatings significantly improved the lifetime compared to HVOF-only and vacuum plasma spray (VPS)-only MCrAlY bond coatings with no statistical difference between the two flash coatings. For disk specimens tested in 1 h cycles at 1100 °C in wet air, the NiCoCrAlY flash coating significantly outperformed an HVOF-only NiCoCrAlYHfSi bond coating and a NiCoCrAlYHfSi flash coating. The flash coatings formed a mixed oxide-metal zone that appeared to inhibit crack formation and therefore extend lifetime. In addition to the flash coating increasing the bond coating roughness, the underlying HVOF layer acted as a source of Al for this intermixed zone and prevented the oxide from penetrating deeper into the bond coating. Here, the lower Y+Hf content in the Y-only flash coating appeared to minimize oxidation in the flash layer, thereby increasing the benefit compared to a NiCoCrAlYHfSi flash coating.

42 ENGINEERING↗