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Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prestack reverse time migration for 3D marine reflection seismic data

Prestack reverse time migration (RTM) is a method for imaging the subsurface using the inner product of wavefield extrapolation in shot domain and in receiver domain. It is well known that RTM is better for preserving amplitudes and phases than other prestack migrations. Since 3D seismic data is huge data volume and it needs heavy computing works, it requires parallel computing in order to have a meaningful depth image of the 3D subsurface. We implemented a parallelized version of 3D RTM for prestack depth migration. The results of numerical example for 3D SEG/EAGE salt model showed good agreement with the original geological model. We applied RTM to offshore 3D seismic reflection data. The study area is 12 × 25 km with 120 survey lines. Shot and receiver spacing is 25 m and 12.5 m. The line spacing is 100 m. Shot gathers were preprocessed to enhance signal to noise ratio and velocity model was calculated from conventional stack velocity. Both of them were used to obtain 3D image using RTM. The results show reasonable subsurface image.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Observations of quasi-periodic oscillations from GX 5 - 1 and Cygnus X-2 with the Einstein (HEAO 2) Observatory

The bright galactic bulge X-ray source GX 5 - 1 was observed in April 1979 with the Monitor Proportional Counter on board the Einstein (HEAO 2) Observatory. Analysis of the high time resolution data from the Time Interval Processor confirms the recent Exosat discovery of quasi-periodic oscillations in the X-ray emission from GX 5 - 1. In addition, the summed 0.4 s power spectrum shows the low-frequency red noise component also discovered in the Exosat data. Low-frequency structure is also clearly present in data taken from the bright galaxtic X-ray source Cyg X-2 in December 1978. The expected power spectrum for quasi-periodic oscillations was calculated, including the low-frequency red noise component, using a simple shot noise model with oscillating shots.

Elsner, R. F.↗

Microgravity accelerometer characterization on Columbia STS-32 mission

The Honeywell In-Space Accelerometer (HISA) is a three-axis microgravity accelerometer instrument package recently developed by Honeywell Systems and Research Center (SRC) to monitor oscillatory and transient accelerations onboard spacecraft and spaceborne structures. The HISA was designed to be co-located with materials and life sciences experiments to record real-time accelerometer event data, sampling time, and temperature. The HISA was originally developed to monitor the microgravity disturbances associated with a polymer morphology experiment developed by 3M Company in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The HISA was first flight tested with the 3M experiment on the Space Shuttle Atlantis STS-34 in October 1989. The HISA was successfully flown on a second shuttle mission (Columbia STS-32 in January 1990) in support of the NASA JSC-sponsored Microgravity Disturbances Experiment (MDE), which focused on the effects of microgravity disturbances on the growth of high-quality Indium crystals. The primary objective of the STS-32 MDE experiment was to investigate the effects of crew-induced gravity disturbances on the microstructure (crystal defects and uniformity of impurity distribution) of float-zone-grown crystals. The float-zone technique involves establishing a suspended molten zone between two cylindrical samples a pure, single-crystal sample and an impure, polycrystalline sample. Microgravity disturbances due to crew treadmill activity and orbiter maneuvering system thruster firings were sensed and recorded by the HISA to understand their effects on the stability of the float zone. The principle of operation of the HISA, the flight configuration of the HISA supporting the MDE experiment, and the characterization of STS-32 treadmill disturbance data are summarized.

Schoess, Jeff↗

In situ data acquisition and real-time analysis system

A testing system for evaluating the performance of an electrical/electronic UUT under dynamic operating conditions. The testing system includes a dynamic testing component (e.g., a centrifuge) for applying a stimulus to the UUT, and an iDAQ system configured to perform in situ data acquisition and real-time data analysis. The iDAQ system may also be subject to the stimulus. The iDAQ system includes a processor (e.g., an SoC) component, a power supply, a CR/I component, an IR component, and a single enclosure. The processor component may control the dynamic testing component, including varying in real-time the stimulus applied to the UUT. The processor component may include multiple input channels, and a high current/voltage subcomponent of the power supply may be configured to supply up to five hundred volts.

Benyhesan, Mohammad K.↗

A multi-level anomaly detection algorithm for time-varying graph data with interactive visualization

This work presents a novel modeling and analysis framework for graph sequences which addresses the challenge of detecting and contextualizing anomalies in labelled, streaming graph data. We introduce a generalization of the BTER model of Seshadhri et al. by adding flexibility to community structure, and use this model to perform multi-scale graph anomaly detection. Specifically, probability models describing coarse subgraphs are built by aggregating node probabilities, and these related hierarchical models simultaneously detect deviations from expectation. This technique provides insight into a graph's structure and internal context that may shed light on a detected event. Additionally, this multi-scale analysis facilitates intuitive visualizations by allowing users to narrow focus from an anomalous graph to particular subgraphs or nodes causing the anomaly. For evaluation, two hierarchical anomaly detectors are tested against a baseline Gaussian method on a series of sampled graphs. We demonstrate that our graph statistics-based approach outperforms both a distribution-based detector and the baseline in a labeled setting with community structure, and it accurately detects anomalies in synthetic and real-world datasets at the node, subgraph, and graph levels. Furthermore, to illustrate the accessibility of information made possible via this technique, the anomaly detector and an associated interactive visualization tool are tested on NCAA football data, where teams and conferences that moved within the league are identified with perfect recall, and precision greater than 0.786.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Occupancy data analytics and prediction: A case study

Occupants are a critical impact factor of building energy consumption. Numerous previous studies emphasized the role of occupants and investigated the interactions between occupants and buildings. However, a fundamental problem, how to learn occupancy patterns and predict occupancy schedule, has not been well addressed due to highly stochastic activities of occupants and insufficient data. This study proposes a data mining based approach for occupancy schedule learning and prediction in office buildings. The proposed approach first recognizes the patterns of occupant presence by cluster analysis, then learns the schedule rules by decision tree, and finally predicts the occupancy schedules based on the inducted rules. A case study was conducted in an office building in Philadelphia, U.S. Based on one-year observed data, the validation results indicate that the proposed approach significantly improves the accuracy of occupancy schedule prediction. The proposed approach only requires simple input data (i.e., the time series data of occupant number entering and exiting a building), which is available in most office buildings. Furthermore, this approach is practical to facilitate occupancy schedule prediction, building energy simulation and facility operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simultaneous compression and opacity data from time-series radiography with a Lagrangian marker

Time-resolved radiography can be used to obtain absolute shock Hugoniot states by simultaneously measuring at least two mechanical parameters of the shock, and this technique is particularly suitable for one-dimensional converging shocks where a single experiment probes a range of pressures as the converging shock strengthens. However, at sufficiently high pressures, the shocked material becomes hot enough that the x-ray opacity falls significantly. Additionally, if the system includes a Lagrangian marker such that the mass within the marker is known, this additional information can be used to constrain the opacity as well as the Hugoniot state. In the limit that the opacity changes only on shock heating, and not significantly on subsequent isentropic compression, the opacity of the shocked material can be determined uniquely. More generally, it is necessary to assume the form of the variation of opacity with isentropic compression or to introduce multiple marker layers. Alternatively, assuming either the equation of state or the opacity, the presence of a marker layer in such experiments enables the non-assumed property to be deduced more accurately than from the radiographic density reconstruction alone. An example analysis is shown for measurements of a converging shock wave in polystyrene at the National Ignition Facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Prognostics and Health Management Framework for Wind

Operation and maintenance costs are a major driver for levelized cost of energy of wind power plants and can be reduced through optimized operation and maintenance practices accomplishable by various prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies. In recent years, the wind industry has become more open to adopting PHM solutions, especially those focusing on diagnostics. However, prognostics activities are, in general, still at the research and development stage. On the other hand, the industry has a request to estimate a component's remaining useful life (RUL) when it has faulted, and this is a key output of prognostics. Systematically presenting PHM technologies to the wind industry by highlighting the RUL prediction need potentially helps speed up its acceptance and provides more benefits from PHM to the industry. In this paper, we introduce a PHM for wind framework. It highlights specifics unique to wind turbines and features integration of data and physics domain information and models. The output of the framework focuses on RUL prediction. To demonstrate its application, a data domain method for wind turbine gearbox fault diagnostics is presented. It uses supervisory control and data acquisition system time series data, normalizes gearbox temperature measurements with reference to environmental temperature and turbine power, and leverages big data analytics and machine-learning techniques to make the model scalable and the diagnostics process automatic. Another physics-domain modeling method for RUL prediction of wind turbine gearbox high-speed-stage bearings failed by axial cracks is also discussed. Bearing axial cracking has been shown to be the prevalent wind turbine gearbox failure mode experienced in the field and is different from rolling contact fatigue, which is targeted during the bearing design stage. The method uses probability of failure as a component reliability assessment and RUL prediction metric, which can be expanded to other drivetrain components or failure modes. The presented PHM for wind framework is generic and applicable to both land-based and offshore wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE 2439: Well 16B(78)-32 Field-Test Data from Mini-Frac Tests

This submittal includes the field-test data collected during stress tests conducted in the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 wellbore to measure/characterize the stresses in the geothermal reservoir. The type of stress test performed is referred to as a mini-frac test or a micro-frac test. The test is a hydraulic fracture test that involves injecting a small volume of water into a short interval of the reservoir that is isolated by a straddle packer to create a fracture. The test provides information about the minimum and maximum horizontal stress at the test depths. A total of seven mini-frac tests were performed within the upper (vertical or nearly vertical) section of the 9-5/8-inch diameter uncased wellbore, between depths of 5,202 ft MD [5,202 ft TVD] and 5,980 ft MD [5966.18 ft TVD]. Two types of data were generated as part of the mini-frac tests. The first type of data is time-series data for each mini-frac test (e.g., injection-rate, test-interval pressure), and are contained in the "Mini-Frac Test Data.zip" file below. The second type is geophysical log data, attached below in the "Geophysical Logs.zip" file. Here, two types of image logs and acoustic logs were obtained before and after the mini-frac tests to examine each test depth for visual evidence of induced fracture(s) and to measure the azimuth (orientation) of any observed fractures. The attached Readme file includes the test depth information and contents of each data file included here. Analysis of the field-test data was conducted and is documented in the attached report below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗