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A review of computational modeling techniques in study and design of shape memory ceramics

Shape memory ceramics are a unique family of shape memory materials with a wide variety of applications, such as ultra-high energy dissipation and high-temperature actuation. Along with significant progress in the experimental study of zirconia-based shape memory ceramics in recent years, computational simulations have exhibited powerful capabilities in revealing nano/microstructure-dependent deformation and failure mechanisms in these materials. In this work, we review the recent progress in understanding the phase transformation behavior in shape memory ceramics, focusing on computational modeling of zirconia-based ceramics. Electronic structure calculations have provided new data on the phase stability and surface properties of shape memory ceramics. At the nanometer length scale, molecular dynamics simulations have captured fundamental information about martensitic phase transformation and the effects of grain boundaries and defects on mechanical response of bi- and polycrystalline zirconia-based ceramics. At the micrometer length scale, advanced phase-field models have shown the ability to predict morphological evolution of microstructures and the corresponding mechanical responses in good agreement with experimental observations. Despite the recent multiscale computational advancements, further developments are required to establish processing-structure-property-performance relations that will lead to reliable and practical strategies for designing zirconia-based (or other) ceramics with improved and sustained shape memory responses. This article critically reviews current computational modeling techniques and provides an outlook for the study and design of the next generation of shape memory ceramics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Autonomous sensor suite for evaluating fish-turbine interactions and environmental impacts in marine renewable energy and hydropower

Marine renewable energy (MRE) harnesses ocean-based resources such as waves, tides, currents, and thermal or salinity gradients for sustainable power generation. It has the potential to complement existing renewable resources, support remote communities, and contribute to decarbonization efforts. However, understanding the hydrodynamic forces created by MRE devices and their impacts on marine life is critical for responsible deployment. Here, to address these concerns, advanced sensor devices, including the Marine Sensor Fish (MSF), Sensor Fish Mini (SF Mini), and Flexible Sensor Fish (FSF), were developed to measure interactions between aquatic organisms and MRE systems. This paper details the design, manufacturing, calibration, and field deployment of these sensor suites, highlighting their ability to capture key physical stressors such as shear forces, pressure changes, and collision impacts. The MSF successfully evaluated turbine interactions at a tidal turbine in the Salish Sea, capturing data on turbulence, collision impact, and pressure gradients. The SF Mini validated hydrodynamic conditions in scaled hydraulic models, supporting computational fluid dynamics simulations. The FSF, with its flexible silicone body, measured species-specific impacts in turbulent environments. This research demonstrates the potential of Sensor Fish technology to advance sustainable marine energy systems by reducing biological impacts and informing environmentally sustainable designs.

Ecological impacts↗

Assessment of Condition Monitoring Methods and Technologies for Inservice Inspection and Testing of Nuclear Power Plant Components

This report was prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to explore the application of advanced technologies toward meeting the current and future regulatory requirements for maintenance and condition monitoring of structures, systems, and components. The advanced technologies considered in this work are advanced sensors and instrumentation, data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI), physics-based models, and digital twins (DT). The interest in the application of advanced technologies for condition monitoring in nuclear power plants continues to grow, and current and future licensees are expected to implement advanced technologies as part of their inservice inspection (ISI) and inservice testing (IST) programs. This report delineates the outcomes of an exploratory investigation into the implementation of advanced condition monitoring technologies to address ISI and IST requirements. A thorough review was conducted of the existing regulatory requirements for ISI and IST, along with an analysis of associated industry practices. Additionally, a state-of-the-art assessment was performed on advanced condition monitoring technologies frequently employed in non-nuclear sectors. This research incorporated two nuclear-specific case studies to illustrate the application of these technologies within the current nuclear fleet. The report provides an exhaustive discussion on the technical challenges, considerations, and opportunities associated with the deployment of advanced condition monitoring technologies. The following are key considerations in the application of advanced technologies for the ISI and IST of nuclear power plant components: • Developing adequate verification and validation procedures to confirm the functional and non-functional requirements, • Developing technical capabilities to conduct real-time asset condition monitoring, • Establishing guidance and protocol for modeling and simulation tools to continuously meet regulatory requirements, • Addressing trustworthiness, explainability, and interpretability of ML/AI methods, • Evaluating maintenance activities to maintain an adequate safety margin and avoid undesirable conditions, • Establishing cybersecure condition monitoring programs associated with a computer-based software system, and • Establishing standardized evaluation metrics for advanced condition monitoring programs. Interest in the use of advanced technologies for condition monitoring in ISI and IST programs continues to grow, and the technology is expected to experience rapid and wide industry adoption in the near future. Adoption of advanced technologies for condition monitoring could have novel and unique impacts on regulatory activities associated with ISI and IST programs. The NRC is continuing to explore the regulatory aspects of advanced technologies as part of ISI and IST programs by pursuing additional research in this technical area.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparison of Fission Product Release Predictions using PARFUME and BISON with Results from the AGR-3/4 Irradiation Experiment

The PARFUME (PARticle Fuel ModEl) fuel performance modeling code and the BISON nuclear fuel performance application built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library were used to predict the fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the third and fourth irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-3/4) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The fuel performance modeling codes PARFUME and BISON modeled the AGR-3/4 irradiation experiment using the fuel compact time-averaged volume averaged (TAVA) daily temperatures for a total irradiation duration of 369.1 effective full power days (EFPD) to predict the release fraction of the fission product silver (Ag-110m) from a representative TRISO-coated fuel particle from AGR-3/4 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on the release of these fission products in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SIC) layer. The PARFUME and BISON results were then compared to the silver release measured from compact gamma scanning. The results showed good agreement between PARFUME and BISON but both codes under-predicted the silver release fraction for all the compacts. In addition, BISON was used to model and predict the fission product concentration radial profile outside of the compacts in capsules’ inner and outer rings. These rings were either comprised of matrix and/or structural graphite. To obtain the concentration profiles of silver, cesium, and strontium, a sorption isotherm model was developed in BISON to capture the effects of fission product transport across the gaps between the concentric rings. The general shape of the concentration radial profiles as calculated by BISON were similar in the inner ring (IR) but varied in the outer ring (OR) depending on the fission product of interest or capsule temperature. Using this methodology and model, BISON now has the capability to aid in developing new fission product diffusion coefficients for matrix or structural graphite materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrodynamic trait coordination and cost–benefit trade‐offs throughout the isohydric–anisohydric continuum in trees

Abstract Whole‐plant hydraulic performance depends on the integrated function of trait complexes, such as embolism resistance, stomatal closure mechanisms, and root properties. The diversity of such traits produces a wide range of response strategies to both short‐term variation of environmental conditions and long‐term changes to climate and hydrological cycles. This study aims to assess the role of different emergent hydraulic trait combinations in trees' vulnerability to drought using a quantitative modelling framework. This modelling framework may be helpful in studying the influence of plant hydraulic traits independently. It will also be used to assess how different groups of traits interact to form viable hydraulic strategies in response to different environmental conditions. We use the advanced plant hydrodynamic model, finite‐difference ecosystem‐scale tree crown hydrodynamics model version 2, to resolve plant functional traits of roots, stems, and leaves and simulate the transpiration. We define a multidimensional hydraulic “strategy space” by considering a continuum of these traits to test the outcomes of different hypothetical strategies in response to environmental conditions as observed in Northern Michigan, USA. We evaluate the degree to which simulated trees suffer hydraulic failure due to cavitation or carbon deficiency in response to reduced stomatal conductance. Our results demonstrate how the relationship between plant hydraulic strategy and hydraulic safety margin emerges from trait combinations along different tissue levels. Our findings suggest that hydrodynamic models present an exciting new possibility to define and study plant traits and hydrodynamics.

Mirfenderesgi, Golnazalsadat↗

Feasibility of full-core pin resolved CFD simulations of small modular reactor with momentum sources

Complex flow structure interactions and heat transfer processes take place in nuclear reactor cores. Given the extreme pressure/temperature and radioactive conditions inside the core, numerical simulations offer an attractive and sometimes more feasible approach to study the related flow and heat transfer phenomena in addition to the experiments. Under the Exascale Computing Project, the full-core simulation of a small modular reactor (SMR) has been pursued coupling Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and neutronics. A key aspect of the modeling of SMR fuel assemblies is the presence of spacer grids and the mixing promoted by mixing vanes or the equivalent. A reduced order methodology is adopted based on momentum sources to mimic the mixing of the vanes. The momentum sources have been carefully calibrated with detailed Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of spacer grids performed with Nek5000. Modeling the spacer grid and mixing vanes (SGMV) effect without body-fitted computational grid avoids the excessive costs in resolving the local geometric details, and thus supports the simulation to be scaled up to the full core. Besides the progress on momentum source modeling, this paper also features the first full-core pin resolved CFD simulation ever performed to the authors' knowledge. This represents a significant advancement in capability for the CFD of nuclear reactors, which will hopefully serve as an inspiration for further integrating high-fidelity numerical simulations in actual engineering designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CFD simulations of Molten Salt Fast Reactor core cavity flows

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become increasingly important in the research and development of advanced nuclear reactors. Here, in the current study, extensive CFD simulations were conducted for the coolant flow in Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) core models using the state-of-the-art spectral element flow solver Nek5000 and multiscale coarse-mesh thermal-hydraulic software Pronghorn. The underlying motivation is to seek an in-depth understanding of how the internal velocity distribution can be influenced by the MSFR core cavity shape, the Reynolds number, turbulence modeling options and the inlet boundary conditions. The CFD techniques involved in this investigation range from coarse-mesh CFD, RANS modeling, to the high-fidelity LES calculations. Specifically, a series of RANS simulations were performed for the 2-D axisymmetric core model and 3-D wedge domains to study the flow distribution inside the MSFR core. It is observed that a proper representation of the MSFR inlet channel duct is important for the prediction of internal flow distribution. It is also showcased here how researchers can leverage the Nek5000 CFD results to calibrate more efficient coarse-mesh CFD tools, like Pronghorn, for the actual MSFR design needs. Moreover, this paper highlights a 3-D LES model for an entire MSFR core using the spectral element method and demonstrates the feasibility of this modeling approach. The readiness and potential limitations of the RANS approach are examined with respect to the high-fidelity LES simulations. The present investigation lays a solid foundation as we are leveraging the high-fidelity CFD capabilities to inform MSFR design efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Beyond Idealized Models of Nanoscale Metal Hydrides for Hydrogen Storage

Metal hydrides are attractive for compact, low-pressure hydrogen storage, yet a foundational understanding of factors governing their thermodynamics and kinetics is still lacking. Predictive modeling from the atomic to the microstructural scale plays a critical role in addressing these gaps, particularly for nanoscale materials, which promise improved performance but are difficult to probe. In this paper, we summarize strategies being developed within the Hydrogen Materials—Advanced Research Consortium (HyMARC) for going beyond conventional models to incorporate more complex physics, more realistic structures, and better approximation of operation conditions in simulations of nanoscale metal hydrides. We highlight four beyond-ideal factors that influence predicted performance: (1) surface anharmonic dynamics, (2) interface and surface energy penalties, (3) mechanical stress under confinement, and (4) the presence of native surface oxide. Approaches for addressing these factors are demonstrated on model materials representative of high-capacity hydrogen storage systems, and implications for understanding performance under operating conditions are discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Coupled optical and electrical study of thin-film InGaAs photodetector integrated with surface InP Mie resonators

High-index dielectric and semiconductor nanostructures with characteristics of low absorption loss and artificially controlled scattering properties have grasped an increasing attention for improving the performance of thin-film photovoltaic devices. In this work, combined optical and electrical simulations were performed for thin-film InP/In{sub 0.53}Ga{sub 0.47}As/InP hetero-junction photodetector with periodically arranged InP nano-cylinders in the in-coupling configuration. It is found that the carefully designed InP nano-cylinders possess strongly substrate-coupled Mie resonances and can effectively couple incident light into the guided mode, both of which significantly increase optical absorption. Further study from the electrical aspects shows that enhancement of external quantum efficiency is as high as 82% and 83% in the configurations with the optimized nano-cylinders and the optimized period, respectively. Moreover, we demonstrate that the integration of InP nano-cylinders does not degrade the electrical performance, since the surface recombination is effectively suppressed by separating the absorber layer where carriers generate and the air/semiconductor interface. The comprehensive modeling including optical and electrical perspectives provides a more practical description for device performance than the optical-only simulation and is expected to advance the design of thin-film absorber layer based optoelectronic devices for fast response and high efficiency.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical inference of empirical constituents in partitioned analysis from integral-effect experiments: An application in thermo-mechanical coupling

Rapid advancements in parallel computing over the last two decades have enabled simulations of complex, coupled systems through partitioning. In partitioned analysis, independently developed constituent models communicate, representing dependencies between multiple physical phenomena that occur in the full system. Figure 1 schematically demonstrates a coupled system with two constituent models, each resolving different physical behavior. In this figure, the constituent model, denoted as the “consumer,” relies upon some input parameter that is being provided by the constituent model acting as a “feeder”. The role of the feeder model is to map operating conditions (i.e. those that are stimulating the process) to consumer inputs, thus providing functional inputs to the consumer model*. Problems arise if the feeder model cannot be built–a challenge that is prevalent for highly complex systems in extreme operational conditions that push the limits of our understanding of underlying physical behavior. Often, these are also the situations where separate-effect experiments isolating the physical phenomena are not available; meaning that experimentally determining the unknown constituent behavior is not possible (Bauer and Holland, 1995; Unal et al., 2013), and that integral-effect experiments that reflect the behavior of the complete system tend to be the only available observations. In this paper, the authors advocate for the usefulness of integral-effect experiments in furthering a model developer’s knowledge of the physics principles governing the system behavior of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling of Pyroprocessing Hot Cell for Process Monitoring Evaluation

In this report, we examine studies undertaken to determine the applicability of applying measurements with a neutron counter within a pyroprocessing hot cell. The studies focus on the modeling of the hot cell and neutron counter in Monte Carlo N- Particle Code (MCNP) to determine expected radiation effects and applicability of neutron counters. The neutron counter of focus was the High Dose Neutron Detector (HDND) developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). We studied the HDND to determine what would be the detector response under normal background conditions with operating process equipment as well as the background’s potential effect on counting applications involving a U/TRU ingot produced by the pyroprocessing electrorefiner. To perform this task, we were required to develop models of the pyroprocessing process cell and unit operations and generate source terms for various different times in the process. The data for the pyroprocessing materials came from SNL’s Safeguards and Security Process Model (SSPM) as part of MPACT’s advanced integration mission. This report will discuss the development of the pyroprocessing process cell and unit operations models in MCNP as well as various simulations to determine the applicability of the HDND for process monitoring efforts in the hot cell.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D02)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D02)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

PyFLEXTRKR: a flexible feature tracking Python software for convective cloud analysis

Abstract. This paper describes the new open-source framework PyFLEXTRKR (Python FLEXible object TRacKeR), a flexible atmospheric feature tracking software package with specific capabilities to track convective clouds from a variety of observations and model simulations. This software can track any atmospheric 2D objects and handle merging and splitting explicitly. The package has a collection of multi-object identification algorithms, scalable parallelization options, and has been optimized for large datasets including global high-resolution data. We demonstrate applications of PyFLEXTRKR on tracking individual deep convective cells and mesoscale convective systems from observations and model simulations ranging from large-eddy resolving (∼100s m) to mesoscale (∼10s km) resolutions. Visualization, post-processing, and statistical analysis tools are included in the package. New Lagrangian analyses of convective clouds produced by PyFLEXTRKR applicable to a wide range of datasets and scales facilitate advanced model evaluation and development efforts as well as scientific discovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗