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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models

Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. In conclusion, results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have emerged over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Assessment↗
DOE OSTI2020

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Jaegermeyr, Jonas↗
DOE OSTI2019

Major improvements on the longwave radiative interactions between surface and clouds in the polar regions in atmospheric global circulation model

Motivations: One of the most important tasks in the study of physical and socioeconomic aspects of climate change is the simulation of polar climate and how it changes in response to global warming. One import component of the polar energy budget (and thus of polar climate) is the radiative interaction between surface and clouds. As of today, the vast majority of state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs), including all three US flagship GCMs (NCAR CESM, GFDL CM3, and GISS E2-H/E2-R), still assume constant surface emissivity overall spectral bands in their longwave radiation treatment. Similarly, a majority of state-of-the-art GCMs assume non-scattering clouds in the longwave spectrum, including both the NCAR CESM and GFDL CM3. The issues of ignoring spectral variation in surface emissivity and scattering by clouds manifest themselves in the far-infrared (IR) over the polar continents because (1) there is so little water vapor in such areas that surface far-IR emission can reach clouds; and (2) the imaginary part of the refractive index of ice has a local minimum over 350-550 cm-1, which implies possible strong scattering effects over this spectral region both within and between the snow surface and ice clouds. Our sensitivity studies using CloudSat-retrieved hydrometeor profiles over the high-elevation Antarctic continent show that, in winter, an appropriate inclusion of snow surface spectral emissivity and ice cloud scattering in radiative transfer calculations can noticeably reduce the monthly-mean surface net downward far-IR flux and net atmospheric far-IR emission over the entire region. For the far-IR alone, the magnitude of these effects is ~1Wm-2 or even larger. Projection Objectives: We propose to carry out the following studies: (1) Develop or update schemes that can be used in the CESM to compute the optical properties of the snow surface and ice clouds consistently across the longwave and the shortwave spectrum; (2) Modify the longwave radiation scheme in the CESM such that it can incorporate surface spectral emissivity and scattering of clouds; (3) Validate schemes developed for (1) and (2) against measurements or benchmark models; (4) Evaluate the effects of these new treatments on the simulated polar energy budget and climate by the CESM. Technical Approaches:1.Use a detailed snowpack radiative transfer model to simulate spectrally resolved emissivity of snow surfaces as a function of snow effective radius. The model will be validated against available high spectral-resolution measurements of snow spectral emissivity (ASTER spectra library v2.0). Currently the CESM prognoses vertically-resolved snow effective radius, and snow shortwave albedo is parameterized based on snow effective radius. Our treatment of snow spectral emissivity here will be consistent with the treatment of snow albedo in the shortwave and seamlessly connected with the snow physical module in the CESM. 2. Update the parameterization of ice cloud optical properties in the CESM, for both longwave and shortwave, based on the latest ice-cloud scattering database developed by co-I Prof. Yang. 3. Modify RRTMG_LW, the current longwave radiation scheme in the CESM, to include the surface spectral emissivity and the scattering of clouds in the longwave calculation. Validate modified scheme against a line-by-line radiative transfer model with multiple scattering capability (LBLRTM/CHARTS). 4. Implement products from Steps 1-3 into the CESM and conduct simulations to evaluate their effects on the simulated polar climate and energy budget. These runs will be compared to control runs and evaluated using routine model-observation diagnostics, including data from the ARM NSA (North Slope of Alaska) site. Moreover, a novel aspect in this step is that we will evaluate the simulated longwave band-by-band fluxes and cloud radiative effect against observational counterparts over both polar continents, using a product recently derived by the lead PI Prof. Huang from collocated AIRS and CERES satellite observations from 2002 to 2013. Benefits and outcomes: This project will significantly improve the longwave radiation scheme in the CESM and its successors and provide more realistic treatment of radiative interactions between polar surfaces and clouds. In the future, it will also be straightforward to extend this framework to include spectral emissivity of all surface types. This is responsive to identified DoE Earth System Modeling Science Drivers to improve the performance of the fully coupled climate system modeling and to help address questions on how rapid changes in cryospheric systems interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

On the Role of Trend and Variability of Hydroxyl Radical (OH) in the Global Methane Budget

Decadal trends and interannual variations in the hydroxyl radical (OH), while poorly constrained at present, are critical for understanding the observed evolution of atmospheric methane (CH4). Through analyzing the OH fields simulated by the model ensemble of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), we find (1) the negative OH anomalies during the El Niño years mainly corresponding to the enhanced carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from biomass burning and (2) a positive OH trend during 1980-2010 dominated by the elevated primary production and the reduced loss of OH due to decreasing CO after 2000. Both two-box model inversions and variational 4D inversions suggest that ignoring the negative anomaly of OH during the El Niño years leads to a large overestimation of the increase in global CH4 emissions by up to10±3Tg yr-1to match the observed CH4 increase over these years. Not accounting for the increasing OH trends given by the CCMI models leads to an underestimation of the CH4 emission increase by 23±9Tg yr-1from 1986 to 2010. The variational inversion estimated CH4 emissions show that the tropical regions contribute most to the uncertainties related to OH. This study highlights the significant impact of climate and chemical feedbacks related to OH on the top-down estimates of the global CH4 budget.

Hydroxyl radical (OH)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting Interior Water Mass Responses to Surface Forcing Changes and the Subsequent Effects on Overturning in the Southern Ocean

Abstract Two coupled climate models, differing primarily in horizontal resolution and treatment of mesoscale eddies, were used to assess the impact of perturbations in wind stress and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) melting on the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (SO MOC), which plays an important role in global climate regulation. The largest impact is found in the SO MOC lower limb, associated with the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which in both models is enhanced by wind and weakened by AIS meltwater perturbations. Even though both models under the AIS melting perturbation show similar AABW transport reductions of 4–5 Sv (50%–60%), the volume deflation of AABW south of 30°S is four times greater in the higher resolution simulation (−20 vs. −5 Sv). Water mass transformation (WMT) analysis reveals that surface‐forced dense water formation on the Antarctic shelf is absent in the higher resolution and reduced by half in the lower resolution model in response to the increased AIS melting. However, the decline of the AABW volume (and its inter‐model difference) far exceeds the surface‐forced WMT changes alone, which indicates that the divergent model responses arise from interactions between changes in surface forcing and interior mixing processes. This model divergence demonstrates an important source of uncertainty in climate modeling, and indicates that accurate shelf processes together with scenarios accounting for AIS melting are necessary for robust projections of the deep ocean's response to anthropogenic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1

The response of extreme precipitation to warming varies widely among climate models, especially in the tropics. In some models, there have been indications that the rate of response increases with warming – that the response is not linear. In this work, we investigate the evolution of extreme precipitation, quantified by the maximum accumulated precipitation in a day each year, in CESM1. We find that tropical- and global-average extreme precipitation are related to global mean surface temperature quadratically. This behavior is associated with an increase in the large scale fraction of extreme precipitation, and also strengthening circulation on extreme 25 precipitation days. Compared to other CMIP5 models, the nonlinearity in CESM1 is among the largest. One implication is that the difference between CESM1 simulations with full forcing and with fixed aerosols cannot be used to isolate the response of extreme precipitation to aerosols, as the resulting climates are not equally warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Synoptic-Scale Dynamics on Clouds and Radiation in High Southern Latitudes

High-latitudinal mixed-phase clouds significantly affect Earth's radiative balance. Observations of cloud and radiative properties from two field campaigns in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica were compared with two global climate model simulations. A cyclone compositing method was used to quantify “dynamics-cloud-radiation” relationships relative to the extratropical cyclone centers. Observations show larger asymmetry in cloud and radiative properties between western and eastern sectors at McMurdo compared with Macquarie Island. Most observed quantities at McMurdo are higher in the western (i.e., post-frontal) than the eastern (frontal) sector, including cloud fraction, liquid water path (LWP), net surface shortwave and longwave radiation (SW and LW), except for ice water path (IWP) being higher in the eastern sector. Here, the two models were found to overestimate cloud fraction and LWP at Macquarie Island but underestimate them at McMurdo Station. IWP is consistently underestimated at both locations, both sectors, and in all seasons. Biases of cloud fraction, LWP, and IWP are negatively correlated with SW biases and positively correlated with LW biases. The persistent negative IWP biases may have become one of the leading causes of radiative biases over the high southern latitudes, after correcting the underestimation of supercooled liquid water in the older model versions. By examining multi-scale factors from cloud microphysics to synoptic dynamics, this work will help increase the fidelity of climate simulations in this remote region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local limits of detection for anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions

Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Regional Replay: A Unique Reanalysis-Based Tool for Addressing Model Error

Understanding and correcting errors in general circulation and climate models has long been part intuition and part trial and error. Efforts to diagnose the errors and provide some guidance to developers have been of some value, though such efforts, with few exceptions, have been more successful in identifying and documenting the errors in the model simulations rather than the model deficiencies that produced them. Modern atmospheric reanalyses such as MERRA-2 provide much-improved estimates of our climate system at hourly to interannual and longer time scales and have become an important tool for assessing model performance. Here we use MERRA-2 to address biases in the NASA/GMAO GEOS model by employing a "regional replay" approach developed in the GMAO. The regional replay approach constrains the model to remain close to the reanalysis over arbitrary regions and selected model variables, thus allowing us to examine how model error generated over one area is spatially translated across the globe. Several examples are given including an assessment of the global impact of errors produced over the Tibet region.

Tibet Region↗
DOE OSTI2017

Launching a Tethered Balloon in the Artic

Sandia atmospheric scientist Dari Dexheimer regularly flies tethered balloons out of Sandia’s dedicated Arctic airspace on Oliktok Point, the northernmost point of Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay. These 13-foot-tall balloons carry distributed temperature sensors to collect Arctic atmospheric temperature profiles, or the temperature of the air at different heights above the ground, among other atmospheric sensors. The data Sandia collects is critical for understanding Arctic clouds to inform global climate models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)

With their extensive coverage, marine low clouds greatly impact global climate. Presently, marine low clouds are poorly represented in global climate models, and the response of marine low clouds to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols remains the major source of uncertainty in climate simulations. The Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region of persistent but diverse subtropical marine boundary layer clouds, whose albedo and precipitation are highly susceptible to perturbations in aerosol properties. In addition, the ENA is periodically impacted by continental aerosols, making it an excellent location to study the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budget in a remote marine region periodically perturbed by anthropogenic emissions, and to investigate the impacts of long-range transport of aerosols on remote marine clouds. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign was motivated by the need of comprehensive in-situ measurements for improving the understanding of marine boundary layer CCN budget, cloud and drizzle microphysics, and the impact of aerosol on marine low cloud and precipitation. The airborne deployments took place from June 21 to July 20, 2017 and January 15 to February 18, 2018 in the Azores. The flights were designed to maximize the synergy between in-situ airborne measurements and ongoing long-term observations at a ground site. Here we present measurements, observation strategy, meteorological conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings. Lastly, we discuss future analyses and modeling studies that improve the understanding and representation of marine boundary layer aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and the interactions among them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Model Based Mars Climate Database for the Mission Design

A viewgraph presentation on a model based climate database is shown. The topics include: 1) Why a model based climate database?; 2) Mars Climate Database v3.1 Who uses it ? (approx. 60 users!); 3) The new Mars Climate database MCD v4.0; 4) MCD v4.0: what's new ? 5) Simulation of Water ice clouds; 6) Simulation of Water ice cycle; 7) A new tool for surface pressure prediction; 8) Acces to the database MCD 4.0; 9) How to access the database; and 10) New web access

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Environmental and Operational Costs

This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on environmental and operational costs. A linear climate model was first used to convert climate effects of carbon dioxide emissions and aircraft contrails to changes in Absolute Global Temperature Potential, a metric that measures the mean surface temperature change due to aircraft emissions and persistent contrail formations. The concept of social cost of carbon and the carbon auction price from recent California's cap-and-trade system were then used to relate the carbon dioxide emissions and contrail formations to an environmental cost index. The strategy for contrail reduction is based on minimizing contrail formations by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. The strategy uses a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and additional fuel burn and carbon dioxide emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction but also more fuel burn and carbon emissions. The strategy is considered favorable when the net environmental cost benefit exceeds the operational cost. The results show how the net environmental benefit varies with different decision-making time-horizon and different carbon cost. The cost models provide a guidance to select the trade-off factor that will result in the most net environmental benefit.

social cost of carbon↗