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NASA NTRS2006

Development of a 32 Inch Diameter Levitated Ducted Fan Conceptual Design

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center has developed a revolutionary 32 in. diameter Levitated Ducted Fan (LDF) conceptual design. The objective of this work is to develop a viable non-contact propulsion system utilizing Halbach arrays for all-electric flight, and many other applications. This concept will help to reduce harmful emissions, reduce the Nation s dependence on fossil fuels, and mitigate many of the concerns and limitations encountered in conventional aircraft propulsors. The physical layout consists of a ducted fan drum rotor with blades attached at the outer diameter and supported by a stress tuner ring at the inner diameter. The rotor is contained within a stator. This concept exploits the unique physical dimensions and large available surface area to optimize a custom, integrated, electromagnetic system that provides both the levitation and propulsion functions. The rotor is driven by modulated electromagnetic fields between the rotor and the stator. When set in motion, the time varying magnetic fields interact with passive coils in the stator assembly to produce repulsive forces between the stator and the rotor providing magnetic suspension. LDF can provide significant improvements in aviation efficiency, reliability, and safety, and has potential application in ultra-efficient motors, computers, and space power systems.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Progress in Modeling Global Atmospheric CO2 Fluxes and Transport: Results from Simulations with Diurnal Fluxes

Progress in better determining CO2 sources and sinks will almost certainly rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. Use of advanced data requires improved modeling and analysis capability. Under NASA Carbon Cycle Science support we seek to develop and integrate improved formulations for 1) atmospheric transport, 2) terrestrial uptake and release, 3) biomass and 4) fossil fuel burning, and 5) observational data analysis including inverse calculations. The transport modeling is based on meteorological data assimilation analysis from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office. Use of assimilated met data enables model comparison to CO2 and other observations across a wide range of scales of variability. In this presentation we focus on the short end of the temporal variability spectrum: hourly to synoptic to seasonal. Using CO2 fluxes at varying temporal resolution from the SIB 2 and CASA biosphere models, we examine the model's ability to simulate CO2 variability in comparison to observations at different times, locations, and altitudes. We find that the model can resolve much of the variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The influence of key process representations is inferred. The high degree of fidelity in these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of realtime, highly resolved observations into a multiscale carbon cycle analysis system that will begin to bridge the gap between top-down and bottom-up flux estimation, which is a primary focus of NACP.

Collatz, G. James↗
NASA NTRS2008

Halbach Magnetic Rotor Development

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center has a wealth of experience in Halbach array technology through the Fundamental Aeronautics Program. The goals of the program include improving aircraft efficiency, reliability, and safety. The concept of a Halbach magnetically levitated electric aircraft motor will help reduce harmful emissions, reduce the Nation s dependence on fossil fuels, increase efficiency and reliability, reduce maintenance and decrease operating noise levels. Experimental hardware systems were developed in the GRC Engineering Development Division to validate the basic principles described herein and the theoretical work that was performed. A number of Halbach Magnetic rotors have been developed and tested under this program. A separate test hardware setup was developed to characterize each of the rotors. A second hardware setup was developed to test the levitation characteristics of the rotors. Each system focused around a unique Halbach array rotor. Each rotor required original design and fabrication techniques. A 4 in. diameter rotor was developed to test the radial levitation effects for use as a magnetic bearing. To show scalability from the 4 in. rotor, a 1 in. rotor was developed to also test radial levitation effects. The next rotor to be developed was 20 in. in diameter again to show scalability from the 4 in. rotor. An axial rotor was developed to determine the force that could be generated to position the rotor axially while it is rotating. With both radial and axial magnetic bearings, the rotor would be completely suspended magnetically. The purpose of this report is to document the development of a series of Halbach magnetic rotors to be used in testing. The design, fabrication and assembly of the rotors will be discussed as well as the hardware developed to test the rotors.

Gallo, Christopher A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

North American Vegetation Dynamics Observed with Multi-Resolution Satellite Data

North American vegetation has been discovered to be a net carbon sink, with atypical behavior of drawing down more carbon from the atmosphere during the past century. It has been suggested that the Northern Hemisphere will respond favorably to climate warming by enhancing productivity and reducing the impact of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere. Many investigations are currently underway to understand and identify mechanisms of storage so they might be actively managed to offset carbon emissions which have detrimental consequences to the functioning of ecosystems and human well being. This paper used a time series of satellite data from multiple sensors at multiple resolutions over the past thlrty years to identify and understand mechanisms of change to vegetation productivity throughout North America. We found that humans had a marked impact to vegetation growth in half of the six selected study regions which cover greater than two million km2. We found climatic influences of increasing temperatures, and longer growing seasons with reduced snow cover in the northern regions of North America with forest fire recovery in the Northern coniferous forests of Canada. The Mid-latitudes had more direct land cover changes induced by humans coupled with climatic influences such as severe drought and altered production strategies of rain-fed agriculture in the upper Midwest, expansion of irrigated agriculture in the lower Midwest, and insect outbreaks followed by subsequent logging in the upper Northeast. Vegetation growth over long time periods (20+ years) in North America appears to be associated with long term climate change but most of the marked changes appear to be associated with climate variability on decadal and shorter time scales along with direct human land cover conversions. Our results document regional land cover land use change and climatic influences that have altered continental scale vegetation dynamics in North America.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Remote Sensing of Tropospheric Pollution from Space

We review the progress of tropospheric trace gas observations and address the need for additional measurement capabilities as recommended by the National Academy of Science (NAS, 2007). Tropospheric measurements from current and earlier instruments show pollution in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of fossil fuel burning and a strong seasonal dependence with the largest amounts of photochemically-generated ozone in summer. At low latitudes, where photon flux is stronger throughout the year, trace gas concentrations are driven by the abundance of the emissions, where the largest source, biomass burning, is readily seen in carbon monoxide measurements, but lightning and biogenic trace gases may also contribute to trace gas variability. Although substantive progress has been achieved in seasonal and global mapping of a few tropospheric trace gases, satellite trace-gas observations with considerably better temporal and spatial resolution are essential to forecasting air quality at scales required by policy-makers. The concurrent use of atmospheric composition measurements for both scientific and operational purposes is a new paradigm for the atmospheric chemistry community. The examples presented illustrate both the promise and challenge of merging satellite information with in situ observations in state-of-the-art data assimilation models.

Fishman, Jack↗
NASA NTRS2008

A View of Earth's Aerosol System from Space to Your Office Chair

Aerosols are tiny particles and droplets suspended in the air. Each day you breathe in about 10 billion of them, about a half a million per breath. They are formed in nature by volcanoes, dust storms, sea spray, and emissions from vegetation. Humans create aerosols and alter their natural sources by burning fossil fuels and modifying land cover. Fires are another important source of aerosols; some are natural, such as wildfires started by lightning strikes, while others are from human-caused burning of vegetation for cooking, heating, and land clearing. Aerosols have complex effects on Earth's climate. In general, they cool the surface by reflecting (scattering) radiation from the sun back into space. Dust and smoke absorb solar radiation and heat the atmosphere where they are concentrated. Aerosols change the properties of clouds. Indeed, it would be very difficult to form clouds in the atmosphere without aerosols to act as 'seeds' for water to condense on. In aerosol polluted environments clouds tend to have smaller droplets than clouds formed in cleaner environments; these polluted clouds appear brighter from space because they reflect more sunlight, and they may persist longer and not rain as intensely. Aerosols also affect local air quality and visibility. Data collected by NASA satellites over the past decade have provided an unprecedented view of Earth's aerosol distribution and dramatically increased our understanding of where aerosols come from and just how far they travel in the atmosphere. In this talk I will discuss observations of aerosols from space and how they inform numerical transport models attempting to simulate the global aerosol system.

Colarco, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2007

Advanced NASA Earth Science Mission Concept for Vegetation 3D Structure, Biomass and Disturbance

Carbon in forest canopies represents about 85% of the total carbon in the Earth's aboveground biomass (Olson et al., 1983). A major source of uncertainty in global carbon budgets derives from large errors in the current estimates of these carbon stocks (IPCC, 2001). The magnitudes and distributions of terrestrial carbon storage along with changes in sources and sinks for atmospheric C02 due to land use change remain the most significant uncertainties in Earth's carbon budget. These uncertainties severely limit accurate terrestrial carbon accounting; our ability to evaluate terrestrial carbon management schemes; and the veracity of atmospheric C02 projections in response to further fossil fuel combustion and other human activities. Measurements of vegetation three-dimensional (3D) structural characteristics over the Earth's land surface are needed to estimate biomass and carbon stocks and to quantify biomass recovery following disturbance. These measurements include vegetation height, the vertical profile of canopy elements (i.e., leaves, stems, branches), andlor the volume scattering of canopy elements. They are critical for reducing uncertainties in the global carbon budget. Disturbance by natural phenomena, such as fire or wind, as well as by human activities, such as forest harvest, and subsequent recovery, complicate the quantification of carbon storage and release. The resulting spatial and temporal heterogeneity of terrestrial biomass and carbon in vegetation make it very difficult to estimate terrestrial carbon stocks and quantify their dynamics. Vegetation height profiles and disturbance recovery patterns are also required to assess ecosystem health and characterize habitat. The three-dimensional structure of vegetation provides habitats for many species and is a control on biodiversity. Canopy height and structure influence habitat use and specialization, two fundamental processes that modify species richness and abundance across ecosystems. Accurate and consistent 3D measurements of forest structure at the landscape scale are needed for assessing impacts to animal habitats and biodiversity following disturbance.

Ranson, K. Jon↗
NASA NTRS2008

U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis

Although the oceans play a major role in the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere, there is much debate about the contribution from continental shelves, since many key shelf fluxes are not yet well quantified: the exchange of carbon across the land-ocean and shelf-slope interfaces, air-sea exchange of CO2, burial, and biological processes including productivity. Our goal is to quantify these carbon fluxes along the eastern U.S. coast using models quantitatively verified by comparison to observations, and to establish a framework for predicting how these fluxes may be modified as a result of climate and land use change. Our research questions build on those addressed with previous NASA funding for the USECoS (U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling) project. We have developed a coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation model configured for this study region and have extensively evaluated this model with both in situ and remotely-sensed data. Results indicate that to further reduce uncertainties in the shelf component of the global carbon cycle, future efforts must be directed towards 1) increasing the resolution of the physical model via nesting and 2) making refinements to the biogeochemical model and quantitatively evaluating these via the assimilation of biogeochemical data (in situ and remotely-sensed). These model improvements are essential for better understanding and reducing estimates of uncertainties in current and future carbon transformations and cycling in continental shelf systems. Our approach and science questions are particularly germane to the carbon cycle science goals of the NASA Earth Science Research Program as well as the U.S. Climate Change Research Program and the North American Carbon Program. Our interdisciplinary research team consists of scientists who have expertise in the physics and biogeochemistry of the U.S. eastern continental shelf, remote-sensing data analysis and data assimilative numerical models.

Mannino, Antonio↗
NASA NTRS2009

Biofuels as an Alternative Energy Source for Aviation-A Survey

The use of biofuels has been gaining in popularity over the past few years because of their ability to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. As a renewable energy source, biofuels can be a viable option for sustaining long-term energy needs if they are managed efficiently. We investigate past, present, and possible future biofuel alternatives currently being researched and applied around the world. More specifically, we investigate the use of ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel (palm oil, algae, and halophytes), and synthetic fuel blends that can potentially be used as fuels for aviation and nonaerospace applications. We also investigate the processing of biomass via gasification, hydrolysis, and anaerobic digestion as a way to extract fuel oil from alternative biofuels sources.

McDowellBomani, Bilal M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using NASA Techniques to Atmospherically Correct AWiFS Data for Carbon Sequestration Studies

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas emitted in a number of ways, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of forest to agriculture. Research has begun to quantify the ability of vegetative land cover and oceans to absorb and store carbon dioxide. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) Forest Service is currently evaluating a DSS (decision support system) developed by researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center called CASA-CQUEST (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach-Carbon Query and Evaluation Support Tools). CASA-CQUEST is capable of estimating levels of carbon sequestration based on different land cover types and of predicting the effects of land use change on atmospheric carbon amounts to assist land use management decisions. The CASA-CQUEST DSS currently uses land cover data acquired from MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and the CASA-CQUEST project team is involved in several projects that use moderate-resolution land cover data derived from Landsat surface reflectance. Landsat offers higher spatial resolution than MODIS, allowing for increased ability to detect land use changes and forest disturbance. However, because of the rate at which changes occur and the fact that disturbances can be hidden by regrowth, updated land cover classifications may be required before the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission, and consistent classifications will be needed after that time. This candidate solution investigates the potential of using NASA atmospheric correction techniques to produce science-quality surface reflectance data from the Indian Remote Sensing Advanced Wide-Field Sensor on the RESOURCESAT-1 mission to produce land cover classification maps for the CASA-CQUEST DSS.

Holekamp, Kara L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development and Testing of the Glenn Research Center Visitor's Center Grid-Tied Photovoltaic Power System

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has developed, installed, and tested a 12 kW DC grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) power system at the GRC Visitor s Center. This system utilizes a unique ballast type roof mount for installing the photovoltaic panels on the roof of the Visitor s Center with no alterations or penetrations to the roof. The PV system has generated in excess of 15000 kWh since operation commenced in August 2008. The PV system is providing power to the GRC grid for use by all. Operation of the GRC Visitor s Center PV system has been completely trouble free. A grid-tied PV power system is connected directly to the utility distribution grid. Facility power can be obtained from the utility system as normal. The PV system is synchronized with the utility system to provide power for the facility, and excess power is provided to the utility. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners. GRC personnel glean valuable experience with PV power systems that are directly applicable to various space power systems, and provides valuable space program test data. PV power systems help to reduce harmful emissions and reduce the Nation s dependence on fossil fuels. Power generated by the PV system reduces the GRC utility demand, and the surplus power aids the community. Present global energy concerns reinforce the need for the development of alternative energy systems. Modern PV panels are readily available, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. Modern electronics has been the enabling technology behind grid-tied power systems, making them safe, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. Based upon the success of the GRC Visitor s Center PV system, additional PV power system expansion at GRC is under consideration. The GRC Visitor s Center grid-tied PV power system was successfully designed and developed which served to validate the basic principles described, and the theoretical work that was performed. The report concludes that grid-tied photovoltaic power systems are reliable, maintenance free, long life power systems, and are of significant value to NASA and the community.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development and Testing of a Prototype Grid-Tied Photovoltaic Power System

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has developed and tested a prototype 2 kW DC grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) power system at the Center. The PV system has generated in excess of 6700 kWh since operation commenced in July 2006. The PV system is providing power to the GRC grid for use by all. Operation of the prototype PV system has been completely trouble free. A grid-tied PV power system is connected directly to the utility distribution grid. Facility power can be obtained from the utility system as normal. The PV system is synchronized with the utility system to provide power for the facility, and excess power is provided to the utility. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners. GRC personnel glean valuable experience with PV power systems that are directly applicable to various space power systems, and provide valuable space program test data. PV power systems help to reduce harmful emissions and reduce the Nation s dependence on fossil fuels. Power generated by the PV system reduces the GRC utility demand, and the surplus power aids the community. Present global energy concerns reinforce the need for the development of alternative energy systems. Modern PV panels are readily available, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. Modern electronics has been the enabling technology behind grid-tied power systems, making them safe, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. Based upon the success of the prototype PV system, additional PV power system expansion at GRC is under consideration. The prototype grid-tied PV power system was successfully designed and developed which served to validate the basic principles described, and the theoretical work that was performed. The report concludes that grid-tied photovoltaic power systems are reliable, maintenance free, long life power systems, and are of significant value to NASA and the community.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Design of a Glenn Research Center Solar Field Grid-Tied Photovoltaic Power System

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) designed, developed, and installed, a 37.5 kW DC photovoltaic (PV) Solar Field in the GRC West Area in the 1970s for the purpose of testing PV panels for various space and terrestrial applications. The PV panels are arranged to provide a nominal 120 VDC. The GRC Solar Field has been extremely successful in meeting its mission. The PV panels and the supporting electrical systems are all near their end of life. GRC has designed a 72 kW DC grid-tied PV power system to replace the existing GRC West Area Solar Field. The 72 kW DC grid-tied PV power system will provide DC solar power for GRC PV testing applications, and provide AC facility power for all times that research power is not required. A grid-tied system is connected directly to the utility distribution grid. Facility power can be obtained from the utility system as normal. The PV system is synchronized with the utility system to provide power for the facility, and excess power is provided to the utility for use by all. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners. GRC personnel glean valuable experience with PV power systems that are directly applicable to various space power systems, and provide valuable space program test data. PV power systems help to reduce harmful emissions and reduce the Nation s dependence on fossil fuels. Power generated by the PV system reduces the GRC utility demand, and the surplus power aids the community. Present global energy concerns reinforce the need for the development of alternative energy systems. Modern PV panels are readily available, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. Modern electronics has been the enabling technology behind grid-tied power systems, making them safe, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. The report concludes that the GRC West Area grid-tied PV power system design is viable for a reliable, maintenance free, long life power system that is of significant value to NASA and the community.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Detection of Natural Oil Seeps in the Atlantic Ocean Using MODIS

Natural oil seepage is the release of crude oil into the ocean from fissures in the seabed. Oil seepage is a major contributor to the total amount of oil entering the world s oceans. According to a 2003 study by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), 47 percent of oil entering the world s oceans is from natural seeps, and 53 percent is from human sources (extraction, transportation, and consumption). Oil seeps cause smooth oil slicks to form on the water s surface. Oil seeps can indicate the location of stores of fossil fuel beneath the ocean floor. Knowledge of the effect of oil seepage on marine life and marine ecosystems remains limited. In the past, remote sensing has been used to detect oil seeps in the Gulf of Mexico and off of the coast of southern California. This project utilized sun glint MODIS imagery to locate oil slicks off of the Atlantic coast, an area that had not previously been surveyed for natural oil seeps using remote sensing. Since 1982, the Atlantic Ocean has been closed to any oil and gas drilling. Recently, however, the U.S. Minerals Management Services (MMS) has proposed a lease for oil and gas drilling off the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina. Determining the location of seepage sites in the Atlantic Ocean will help MMS locate potential deposits of oil and natural gas, thereby reducing the risk of leasing areas for petroleum extraction that do not contain these natural resources.

Reahard, Ross↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparing Global Atmospheric CO2 Flux and Transport Models with Remote Sensing (and Other) Observations

We report recent progress derived from comparison of global CO2 flux and transport models with new remote sensing and other sources of CO2 data including those from satellite. The overall objective of this activity is to improve the process models that represent our understanding of the workings of the atmospheric carbon cycle. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport processes are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, to provide the basic framework for carbon data assimilation, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. Models can also be used to test consistency within and between CO2 data sets under varying geophysical states. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 2000 through 2009. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at 1x1 degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-3), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to remote sensing observations from TCCON, GOSAT, and AIRS as well as relevant in situ observations. Examples of the influence of key process representations are shown from both forward and inverse model comparisons. We find that the model can resolve much of the synoptic, seasonal, and interannual variability in the observations, although reasons for persistent discrepancies in northern hemisphere vegetation uptake are examined. At this time, we do not find any serious shortcomings in the model transport representation, but this is still the subject of close scrutiny. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in CO2 fluxes and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

Schwartz, Stephen E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

In the Beginning...

Having just emerged from the warmest decade on record and watching as the oceans acidify and sea level rises, global resources peak, the world's population continues to climb, and nearly half of all known species face extinction by the end of the century. We stand on the threshold of one of the most important transition in human history-the transition from hunting-and-gathering our energy to cultivating sustainable, carbon-neutral, environmentally-friendly energy supplies. Can we develop an alternative to fossil fuels in time to make a difference for our children and the "children" of all species? NASA puts people into outer space, where all resources (food, water, air, pressure, gravity, energy) are limited and far away and where conditions (temperature, radiation, vacuum) are problematic and dangerous-the life expectancy of an unprotected astronaut (physically exposed to the space environment) is 15 seconds. Therefore, by necessity, NASA has explored and developed "life-support systems" that optimize the use of resources, minimize the use of energy, and recycle, refurbish, re-use everything that on earth would be considered a waste material. Emerging from the legacy of life-support systems, the NASA OMEGA project uses microalgae, municipal wastewater, and the encroaching oceans to address our global needs for a sustainable, carbon-neutral, environmentally friendly energy supply that does not compete with agriculture. The OMEGA project is focused on producing aviation fuel, treating municipal wastewater, and sequestering carbon dioxide. More generally, however, OMEGA is an example of an "ecology of technologies" in which all processes are integrated and inter-dependent and wastes become resources. From a NASA perspective, the OMEGA project is also a reminder that "we are not passengers on Spaceship Earth, we are the crew."

Trent, Jonathan↗