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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure. • Framework allows cumulative risk assessment in specific geographic settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A spectral study of the persistent X-ray flux from 4 U/MXB 1636-53

A spectral analysis of the persistent X-ray flux from the X-ray burst source 4 U/MXB 1636-53, which was continuously observed with EXOSAT for about 25 h in May, 1984, is presented. It is found that no standard one-component spectral model provides an acceptable representation of all the data. However, almost all 'complex one-component' and 'two-component' models do accurately fit the data. A blackbody plus a 'multicolor' disk spectrum does not fit these data. In addition, some 'two-component' spectral models can be fitted to the data with more than one set of different parameter values. Based on these results, it is suggested that the various physical scenarios that have been proposed to interpret 'two-component' spectra of low-mass X-ray binaries may be based on mathematical parameterizations which may not provide unique representations of the data. If this is the case, the reported 'two-component' mathematical fits may not have any true physical significance.

Vacca, W. D.↗

Modeling the Earth's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within a realistic magnetopause

Empirical data-based models of the magnetosphereic magnetic field have been widely used during recent years. However, the existing models (Tsyganenko, 1987, 1989a) have three serious deficiencies: (1) an unstable de facto magnetopause, (2) a crude parametrization by the K(sub p) index, and (3) inaccuracies in the equatorial magnetotail B(sub z) values. This paper describes a new approach to the problem; the essential new features are (1) a realistic shape and size of the magnetopause, based on fits to a large number of observed crossing (allowing a parametrization by the solar wind pressure), (2) fully controlled shielding of the magnetic field produced by all magnetospheric current systems, (3) new flexible representations for the tail and ring currents, and (4) a new directional criterion for fitting the model field to spacecraft data, providing improved accuracy for field line mapping. Results are presented from initial efforts to create models assembled from these modules and calibrated against spacecraft data sets.

Tsyganenko, N. A.↗

Structure of the Bastnäsite (001) Surface by Crystal Truncation Rod X-ray Diffraction and Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics: Implications for Separations of a Rare Earth Ore Mineral

Bastnäsite ((Ce,La)FCO 3 ) is the primary mineral source of light rare earth elements, but its surface structure is not well understood. This presents a major challenge in improving beneficiation strategies. In this work, a synergistic combination of X-ray scattering and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) was used to gain atomistic insight into the interfacial structure of bastnäsite. Surface X-ray scattering was used to measure crystal truncation rods (CTRs) of the bastnäsite (001) surface, a significant crystal face with a previously unknown termination. The best-fit atomic-scale model of the CTR data features a carbonate layer at the surface, which is stabilized by the relaxation of carbonate groups from their bulk structural positions. AIMD simulations predict similar surface relaxations, which are shown to be influenced by the protonation of oxygen atoms at the surface. Evidence of ordered water at the interface is also observed in the best-fit model and AIMD simulations. Further, the presence of a carbonate layer at this dominant crystal surface is significant for improving separation technologies because most commonly used ligands utilize anionic functional groups to chelate metal cations at particle surfaces. Without modification, anionic ligands are expected to have poor affinity for the carbonate-terminated (001) surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Models of the quasar population. II - The effects of dust obscuration

A model for dust obscuration is proposed to account for the apparent lack of high-redshift quasars which are assumed to be obscured by dust in intervening galaxies. The distribution function for the optical depth as a function of redshift is constructed and used to determine the expected properties of quasars. The apparent magnitude distribution at three points is used to fit the model. Optical results are given for the comoving number density, redshift distribution, and mean color excess. If the theory is correct, evidence for dust may be seen in quasar spectra and a correlation between quasar continuum slopes and strength of metal line absorption systems should be observed.

Heisler, Julia↗

Chandra Grating Spectroscopy of Three Hot White Dwarfs

High-resolution soft X-ray spectroscopic observations of single hot white dwarfs are scarce. With the Chandra Low-Energy Transmission Grating, we have observed two white dwarfs, one is of spectral type DA (LB1919) and the other is a non-DA of spectral type PG1159 (PG1520+525). The spectra of both stars are analyzed, together with an archival Chandra spectrum of another DA white dwarf (GD246). Aims. The soft X-ray spectra of the two DA white dwarfs are investigated in order to study the effect of gravitational settling and radiative levitation of metals in their photospheres. LB1919 is of interest because it has a significantly lower metallicity than DAs with otherwise similar atmospheric parameters. GD246 is the only white dwarf known that shows identifiable individual iron lines in the soft X-ray range. For the PG1159 star, a precise effective temperature determination is performed in order to confine the position of the blue edge of the GW Vir instability region in the HRD. Methods. The Chandra spectra are analyzed with chemically homogeneous as well as stratified NLTE model atmospheres that assume equilibrium between gravitational settling and radiative acceleration of chemical elements. Archival EUV and UV spectra obtained with EUVE, FUSE, and HST are utilized to support the analysis. Results. No metals could be identified in LB1919. All observations are compatible with a pure hydrogen atmosphere. This is in stark contrast to the vast majority of hot DA white dwarfs that exhibit light and heavy metals and to the stratified models that predict significant metal abundances in the atmosphere. For GD246 we find that neither stratified nor homogeneous models can fit the Chandra spectrum. The Chandra spectrum of PG1520+525 constrains the effective temperature to T(sub eff) = 150 000 +/- 10 000 K. Therefore, this nonpulsating star together with the pulsating prototype of the GWVir class (PG1159-035) defines the location of the blue edge of the GWVir instability region. The result is in accordance with predictions from nonadiabatic stellar pulsation models. Such models are therefore reliable tools to investigate the interior structure of GW Vir variables. Conclusions. Our soft X-ray study reveals that the understanding of metal abundances in hot DA white dwarf atmospheres is still incomplete. On the other hand, model atmospheres of hydrogen-deficient PG1159-type stars are reliable and reproduce well the observed spectra from soft X-ray to optical wavelengths.

Adamczak, J.↗

SU-F-T-590: Modeling PTV Dose Fall-Off for Cervical Cancer SBRT Treatment Planning Using VMAT and Step-And-Shoot IMRT

Purpose: Due to the high dose per fraction in SBRT, dose conformity and dose fall-off are critical. In patients with cervical cancer, rapid dose fall-off is particularly important to limit dose to the nearby rectum, small bowel, and bladder. This study compares the target volume dose fall-off for two radiation delivery techniques, fixed-field IMRT & VMAT, using non-coplanar beam geometries. Further comparisons are made between 6 and 10MV photon beam energies. Methods: Eleven (n=11) patients were planned in Pinnacle3 v9.10 with a NovalisTx (HD120 MLC) machine model using 6 and 10 MV photons. The following three techniques were used: (1) IMRT (10 non-coplanar beams) (2) Dual, coplanar 360° VMAT arcs (4° spacing), and (3) Triple, non-coplanar VMAT arcs (1 full arc and dual partial arcs). All plans were normalized such that 98% of the PTV received at least 28Gy/4Fx. Dose was calculated using a 2.0mm isotropic dose grid. To assess dose fall-off, twenty concentric 2mm thick rings were created around the PTV. The maximum dose in each ring was recorded and the data was fitted to model dose fall-off. A separate analysis was performed by separating target volumes into small (0–50cc), medium (51–80cc), and large (81–110cc). Results: Triple, non-coplanar VMAT arcs showed the best dose fall-off for all patients evaluated. All fitted regressions had an R{sup 2}≥0.99. At 10mm from the PTV edge, 10 MV VMAT3-arc had an absolute improvement in dose fall-off of 3.8% and 6.9% over IMRT and VMAT2-arc, respectively. At 30mm, 10 MV VMAT3-arc had an absolute improvement of 12.0% and 7.0% over IMRT and VMAT2-arc, respectively. Faster dose fall-off was observed for small volumes as opposed to medium and large ones—9.6% at 20mm. Conclusion: Triple, non-coplanar VMAT arcs offer the sharpest dose fall-off for cervical SBRT plans. This improvement is most pronounced when treating smaller target volumes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

THE RELATION BETWEEN SOLAR ERUPTION TOPOLOGIES AND OBSERVED FLARE FEATURES. II. DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION

A long-established goal of solar physics is to build understanding of solar eruptions and develop flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) forecasting models. In this paper, we continue our investigation of nonlinear forces free field (NLFFF) models by comparing topological properties of the solutions to the evolution of the flare ribbons. In particular, we show that data-constrained NLFFF models of three erupting sigmoid regions (SOL2010-04-08, SOL2010-08-07, and SOL2012-05-12) built to reproduce the active region magnetic field in the pre-flare state can be rendered unstable and the subsequent sequence of unstable solutions produces quasi-separatrix layers that match the flare ribbon evolution as observed by SDO/AIA. We begin with a best-fit equilibrium model for the pre-flare active region. We then add axial flux to the flux rope in the model to move it across the stability boundary. At this point, the magnetofrictional code no longer converges to an equilibrium solution. The flux rope rises as the solutions are iterated. We interpret the sequence of magnetofrictional steps as an evolution of the active region as the flare/CME begins. The magnetic field solutions at different steps are compared with the flare ribbons. The results are fully consistent with the three-dimensional extension of the standard flare/CME model. Our ability to capture essential topological features of flaring active regions with a non-dynamic magnetofrictional code strongly suggests that the pre-flare, large-scale topological structures are preserved as the flux rope becomes unstable and lifts off.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validity of the Temperature Reconstruction from Water Isotopes in Ice Cores

Well-documented present-day distributions of stable water isotopes (HDO and others) show the existence, in middle and high latitudes, of a linear relationship between the mean annual isotope content of precipitation (SD and 51"0) and the mean annual temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship, which is particularly well obeyed over Greenland and Antarctica, to infer paleotemperatures from ice core data. There is, however, growing evidence that spatial and temporal isotope/ surface temperature slopes differ, thus complicating the use of stable water isotopes as paleothermometers. In this paper we review empirical estimates of temporal slopes in polar regions and relevant information that can be inferred from isotope models: simple, Rayleigh-type distillation models and (particularly over Greenland) general circulation models (GCMS) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. Empirical estimates of temporal slopes appear consistently lower than present-day spatial slopes and are dependent on the timescale considered. This difference is most probably due to changes in the evaporative origins of moisture, changes in the seasonality of the precipitation, changes in the strength of the inversion layer, or some combination of these changes. Isotope models have not yet been used to evaluate the relative influences of these different factors. The apparent disagreement in the temporal and spatial slopes clearly makes calibrating the isotope paleothermometer difficult. Nevertheless, the use of a (calibrated) isotope paleothermometer appears justified; empirical estimates and most (though not all) GCM results support the practice of interpreting ice core isotope records in terms of local temperature changes.

Jouzel, J.↗

Modeling light and temperature effects on leaf emergence in wheat and barley

Phenological development affects canopy structure, radiation interception, and dry matter production; most crop simulation models therefore incorporate leaf emergence rate as a basic parameter. A recent study examined leaf emergence rate as a function of temperature and daylength among wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivars. Leaf emergence rate and phyllochron were modeled as functions of temperature alone, daylength alone, and the interaction between temperature and daylength. The resulting equations contained an unwieldy number of constants. Here we simplify by reducing the constants by > 70%, and show leaf emergence rate as a single response surface with temperature and daylength. In addition, we incorporate the effect of photosynthetic photon flux into the model. Generic fits for wheat and barley show cultivar differences less than +/- 5% for wheat and less than +/- 10% for barley. Barley is more sensitive to daylength changes than wheat for common environmental values of daylength, which may be related to the difference in sensitivity to daylength between spring and winter cultivars. Differences in leaf emergence rate between cultivars can be incorporated into the model by means of a single, nondimensional factor for each cultivar.

NASA Discipline Number 61-10↗

Characterization of shale using Helium and Argon at high pressures

In order to estimate the shale gas in place and the eventual recovery during shale gas operations, one of the key requirements is to accurately characterize the shale’s petrophysical and transport properties such as porosity, permeability, diffusivity, and storage capacity. Despite the many efforts reported in the technical literature aiming to provide an improved understanding of the complex pore structures and the associated fluid flow in gas shales, complete characterization of organic-rich shale samples still poses a big challenge. Here, we have characterized mass transfer and sorption in shale at different length scales using Helium (He) and Argon (Ar) as probe gases. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) with a shale cube of ~1 cm 3 in size and gas expansion experiments with a full-diameter core (3.5” in diameter) were used to measure sorption kinetics/isotherms and mass transfer, respectively. Both samples are from the same depth/location in the Marcellus shale formation. The TGA steady-state technique was initially used to generate excess sorption isotherms for Ar, while dynamic TGA experiments were used to study its sorption kinetics. The TGA experiments demonstrate that Ar, which has a similar sorption potential as Methane, but is generally assumed to be inert, adsorbs onto the surfaces of the mesoporous and microporous regions of the shale samples according to a Langmuir-type behavior. Helium expansion experiments, on the full-diameter core, were used to measure the overall porosity, on the basis that He is a non-sorbing and inert gas as compared to Ar. The He expansion experiments, furthermore, allow us to delineate the mass transfer of gas across the inherent hierarchy of pore sizes, including macropores (macro- and microcracks), mesopores and micropores. Similar expansion experiments were also performed with Ar to study the combined impact of mass transfer and sorption. A triple-porosity model (TPM) was utilized to interpret the He expansion experiments with the shale core and to extract (estimate) relevant transport parameters. We report and compare here the diffusivities and permeabilities of the whole core for both He and Ar, as calculated from the modeling and fitting of the experimental data. On the premise that the shale cube is representative of the matrix region of the core, the Ar sorption kinetics from the cube experiments were subsequently combined with the transport parameters extracted from the He experiments to predict the behavior of the Ar expansion test with the full-diameter core. An excellent agreement is observed between the model predictions and the experimental data. The experimental observations and their interpretation indicate that one must be cautious when using Ar to estimate the true porosity and permeability of shales. In addition, we demonstrate that He and Ar probe gases, when used in tandem, can be employed effectively as a tool to characterize shales in terms of mass transfer and sorption dynamics across scales.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Enhanced indirect optical absorption in AlAs and GaP.

Measurement and analysis of indirect interband optical absorption in GaP. Deviations from a simple indirect absorption law are shown to be consistent with those given by a model which takes into account both the variation of the energy denominators with photon energy and indirect absorption to higher-energy conduction-band valleys. The analysis of the GaP data indicates that such an analysis on data of limited absorption-constant range can provide reasonably accurate values of the direct band gap. The value of the direct band gap best fitting this model for AlAs at 6 K is 3.13 eV. In GaP and AlAs there is evidence of a higher set of extrema giving rise to an additional indirect absorption component 0.34 and 0.20 eV, respectively, above that due to the lowest-energy conduction-band minima. The strength of the absorption due to these higher-energy valleys indicates that they contain states of X sub 3 symmetry.

Dumke, W. P.↗

Permissible Exposure Level for Lunar Dusts: Gaps are Closing

Space faring nations plan to return human explorers to the moon within the next decade. Experience during the Apollo flights suggests that lunar dust will invariably get into the habitat where the finest portion (less than 5 micrometers) could be inhaled by the crew before it is cleared from the atmosphere. NASA is developing a database from which a 6-month, episodic exposure standard for lunar dust can be set. Three kinds of moon dust were prepared from a parent sample of Apollo 14 regolith #14003,96. Our goal was to prepare each type of dust sample with a mean diameter less than 2 m, which is suitable for instillation into the lungs of rats. The three samples were prepared as follows: separation from the parent sample using a fluidized bed, grinding using a jet mill grinder, or grinding with a ball-mill grinder. Grinding simulated restoration of surface activation of dust expected to occur at the surface of the moon on native lunar dust. We used two grinding methods because they seemed to produce different modes of activation. The effects of grinding were preserved by maintaining the dust in ultra-pure nitrogen until immediately before it was placed in suspension for administration to rats. The dust was suspended in physiological saline with 10% Survanta, a lung surfactant. Rats were given intratrachael instillations of the dust suspension at three doses. In addition to the three moon dusts (A, C and E), we instilled the same amount of a negative control (TiO2, B) and a highly-toxic, positive control (quartz, D). These additional mineral dusts were selected because they have well-established and very different permissible exposure levels (PELs). Our goal was to determine where lunar dusts fit between these extremes, and then estimate a PEL for each lunar dust. We evaluated many indices of toxicity to the lung. The figure shows the changes in lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a marker of cell death, for the five dusts. Benchmark dose software (Version 2.1.2) from the Environmental Protection Agency was used to estimate the 10% effect levels (BMD(sub 10)) using five models. The best-fitting model was used to estimate the optimal BMD(sub 10) (table)

James, John T.↗

A Comparison of Maps and Power Spectra Determined from South Pole Telescope and Planck Data

We study the consistency of 150 GHz data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and 143 GHz data from the \textit{Planck} satellite over the 2540 $\text{deg}^2$ patch of sky covered by the SPT-SZ survey. We first visually compare the maps and find that the map residuals appear consistent with noise after we account for differences in angular resolution and filtering. To make a more quantitative comparison, we calculate (1) the cross-spectrum between two independent halves of SPT 150 GHz data, (2) the cross-spectrum between two independent halves of \textit{Planck} 143 GHz data, and (3) the cross-spectrum between SPT 150 GHz and \textit{Planck} 143 GHz data. We find the three cross-spectra are well-fit (PTE = 0.30) by the null hypothesis in which both experiments have measured the same sky map up to a single free parameter characterizing the relative calibration between the two. As a by-product of this analysis, we improve the calibration of SPT data by nearly an order of magnitude, from 2.6\% to 0.3\% in power; the best-fit power calibration factor relative to the most recent published SPT calibration is $1.0174 \pm 0.0033$. Finally, we compare all three cross-spectra to the full-sky \textit{Planck} $143 \times 143$ power spectrum and find a hint ($\sim$1.5$\sigma$) for differences in the power spectrum of the SPT-SZ footprint and the full-sky power spectrum, which we model and fit as a power law in the spectrum. The best-fit value of this tilt is consistent between the three cross-spectra in the SPT-SZ footprint, implying that the source of this tilt---assuming it is real---is a sample variance fluctuation in the SPT-SZ region relative to the full sky. Despite the precision of our tests, we find no evidence for systematic errors in either data set. The consistency of cosmological parameters derived from these datasets is discussed in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Protoplanetary Disk Masses from Radiative Transfer Modeling: A Case Study in Taurus

Measuring the masses of protoplanetary disks is crucial for understanding their planet-forming potential. Typically, dust masses are derived from (sub-)millimeter flux density measurements plus assumptions for the opacity, temperature, and optical depth of the dust. Here we use radiative transfer models to quantify the validity of these assumptions with the aim of improving the accuracy of disk dust mass measurements. We first carry out a controlled exploration of disk parameter space. We find that the disk temperature is a strong function of disk size, while the optical depth depends on both disk size and dust mass. The millimeter-wavelength spectral index can be significantly shallower than the naive expectation due to a combination of optical depth and deviations from the Rayleigh–Jeans regime. We fit radiative transfer models to the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of 132 disks in the Taurus-Auriga region using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. We used all available data to produce the most complete SEDs used in any extant modeling study. We perform the fitting twice: first with unconstrained disk sizes and again imposing the disk size–brightness relation inferred for sources in Taurus. This constraint generally forces the disks to be smaller, warmer, and more optically thick. From both sets of fits, we find disks to be ∼1–5 times more massive than when derived using (sub-)millimeter measurements and common assumptions. With the uncertainties derived from our model fitting, the previously measured dust mass–stellar mass correlation is present in our study but only significant at the 2σ level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Physics of gate leakage current in N-polar InAlN/GaN heterojunction field effect transistors

A physics based model of the gate leakage current in N-polar InAlN/GaN heterojunction field effect transistors is demonstrated. The model is based on the space charge limited current flow dominated by the effects of deep traps in the InAlN surface layer. The model predicts accurately the gate-leakage measurement data of the N-polar InAlN/GaN device with InAlN cap layer. In the pinch-off state, the gate leakage current conduction through the surface of the device in the drain access region dominates the current flow through the two dimensional electron gas channel. One deep trap level and two levels of shallow traps are extracted by fitting the model results with measurement data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗