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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Operational Challenges In TDRS Post-Maneuver Orbit Determination

The GSFC Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) is responsible for daily and post maneuver orbit determination for the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The most stringent requirement for this orbit determination is 75 meters total position accuracy (3-sigma) predicted over one day for Terra's onboard navigation system. To maintain an accurate solution onboard Terra, a solution is generated and provided by the FDF Four hours after a TDRS maneuver. A number of factors present challenges to this support, such as maneuver prediction uncertainty and potentially unreliable tracking from User satellities. Reliable support is provided by comparing an extended Kalman Filter (estimated using ODTK) against a Batch Least Squares system (estimated using GTDS).

FDF↗
NASA NTRS2023

Kankakee Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures

In recent years, unpredictable grassing events have occurred at the Dresden Generating Station, located on the Kankakee River in northern Illinois. Grassing events are characterized by large mats of aquatic vegetation that accumulate downstream, resulting in the clogging of water intake structures and leading to major disruptions in power generation. Currently, employees at the Dresden Generating Station are responsible for reactively responding to each grassing event individually. This project, in partnership with Constellation Nuclear and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), assessed the feasibility of using Earth observations (Landsat 9 OLI-2, Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, DOVE PlanetScope, WorldView-3, and GPM IMERG) to detect floating aquatic vegetation within the Kankakee River and identify predictive factors that trigger grassing events, as doing so will provide the Dresden Generating Station the ability to anticipate future grassing events and enhance general hydrologic modeling efforts held by the USGS. The results of this study illustrated that, while aquatic vegetation can be detected by satellites with up to moderate spatial resolution (30 m), temporal resolution is a major limiting factor for tracking movements in floating aquatic vegetation and identifying predictive measures for these events. In addition, correlation results suggest a possible negative relationship between grassing events and river discharge (-0.875 correlation coefficient). In the future, pairing these results with ground control surveys and sensors with higher temporal capabilities would allow our project partners to predict and proactively address future grassing events, ensuring the reliable operation of the Dresden Generating Station.

Marisa Smedsrud↗
DOE OSTI2016

Verification and Validation of the New Dynamic Mooring Modules Available in FAST v8: Preprint

The open-source aero-hydro-servo-elastic wind turbine simulation software, FAST v8, was recently coupled to two newly developed mooring dynamics modules: MoorDyn and FEAMooring. MoorDyn is a lumped-mass-based mooring dynamics module developed by the University of Maine, and FEAMooring is a finite-element-based mooring dynamics module developed by Texas A&M University. This paper summarizes the work performed to verify and validate these modules against other mooring models and measured test data to assess their reliability and accuracy. The quality of the fairlead load predictions by the open-source mooring modules MoorDyn and FEAMooring appear to be largely equivalent to what is predicted by the commercial tool OrcaFlex. Both mooring dynamic model predictions agree well with the experimental data, considering the given limitations in the accuracy of the platform hydrodynamic load calculation and the quality of the measurement data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Verification and Validation of the New Dynamic Mooring Modules Available in FAST v8

The open-source aero-hydro-servo-elastic wind turbine simulation software, FAST v8, was recently coupled to two newly developed mooring dynamics modules: MoorDyn and FEAMooring. MoorDyn is a lumped-mass-based mooring dynamics module developed by the University of Maine, and FEAMooring is a finite-element-based mooring dynamics module developed by Texas A&M University. This paper summarizes the work performed to verify and validate these modules against other mooring models and measured test data to assess their reliability and accuracy. The quality of the fairlead load predictions by the open-source mooring modules MoorDyn and FEAMooring appear to be largely equivalent to what is predicted by the commercial tool OrcaFlex. Both mooring dynamic model predictions agree well with the experimental data, considering the given limitations in the accuracy of the platform hydrodynamic load calculation and the quality of the measurement data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mercury Speciation of Hanford 241-AP-107 Tank Waste Samples - 20384

The concentration of key mercury species in the Hanford tank waste has not been previously measured. Based on process knowledge, an estimated inventory of 2,100 kg of mercury is assumed and was distributed in varied amounts across 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs). Limited analyses of individual SSTs and DSTs for total mercury were all below detection, yielding upper limits in concentration estimates based solely on instrument detection limits, resulting in an uncertain mercury inventory for Hanford tanks. Accurate and reliable chemical speciation and quantification is desired to anticipate, predict, and abate the mass movements of various mercury species through the Hanford waste processing flowsheet. Highly sensitive separation and quantification methods for total, elemental, and monomethyl mercury species, in tank waste, have been developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's (PNNL) Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL). A non-radiological environmental method to quantify mercury species has been adapted for application to Hanford tank 241-AP-107 raw supernatant feed, filtered feed, and cesium-decontaminated samples. These samples represent feed inventory and pretreatment process effluents prior to immobilization by vitrification. This method separates and preconcentrates total, elemental, and monomethyl mercury onto selective solid substrates with little-to-no radioactive background. The solid samples can then be released from strict radiological control, allowing for analytical work to be conducted in low-level radiological facilities. Separation of mercury species was demonstrated at PNNL's RPL in Richland, Washington before transport and analytical quantification using cold vapor atomic fluorescence spectrometry (CVAFS) at PNNL's Marine Science Laboratory (MSL) in Sequim, Washington. Additional studies were conducted to assess the stability of monomethyl mercury in distilled matrices and preconcentrated onto the Carbotrap{sup R} solid substrate to assess sample degradation over time during transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equipping Neural Network Surrogates with Uncertainty for Propagation in Physical Systems

Coarse-grained or filtered models typically rely on closure models to account for unresolved scales. For instance, large eddy simulation for modeling turbulent fluid flows explicitly resolves the largest scales, but requires modeling closure terms to account for the sub-filter scales. With the vast amount of data available from high-fidelity simulations, there are unique opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques to formulate expressive and flexible closure models. Despite their flexibility, data-driven models struggle in domain shift settings, i.e. when deployed in configurations not captured in the training dataset. In particular, the efficacy of neural network surrogates is difficult to assess a priori due to the deterministic, point-estimate nature of predictions. In high-consequence applications, such models require reliable uncertainty estimates in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. To quantify uncertainties in both regimes, we employ Bayesian neural networks which are able to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We will discuss challenges associated with the training and evaluation of these networks. Furthermore, we will discuss uncertainty embedding strategies to enable efficient sampling and propagation of uncertainty through high-fidelity simulations.

Bayesian neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multiple-scale turbulence modeling of free turbulent flows

As part of an investigation into the application of turbulence models to the computation of flows in advanced scramjet combustors, the multiple-scale turbulence model has been applied to a variety of flowfield predictions. The model appears to have a potential for improved predictions in a variety of areas relevant to combustor problems. This potential exists because of the partition of the turbulence energy spectrum that is the major feature of the model and which allows the turbulence energy dissipation rate to be out of phase with turbulent energy production. To establish the general reliability of the approach, it has been tested through comparison of predictions with experimental data. An appreciable overall improvement in the generality of the predictions is observed, as compared to those of the basic two-equation turbulence model. A Mach number-related correction is found to be necessary to satisfactorily predict the spreading rate of the supersonic jet and mixing layer.

Fabris, G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Designed Training Sets to Optimize Multivariate Regression Models for Pr, Nd, and Nitric Acid Using Spectrophotometry

Chemometric regression models were developed for the quantification of praseodymium (Pr, 0–1000 µg/mL), neodymium (Nd, 0–1000 µg/mL), and nitric acid (HNO 3 , 0.1–5 M) using spectrophotometry. Designed calibration sets were composed of 20 samples each: 10 model points and 10 lack-of-fit (LOF) points. The D-optimal designs effectively minimized the number of samples required to build models, and each design resulted in similar prediction performance, suggesting that statistical design of experiments can provide a reliable framework for selecting training set samples in three-variable systems. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models were validated against a one-factor-at-a-time validation set composed of 125 samples (three variables, five levels). The top PLS-1 models resulted in average percent root mean square error of prediction error values of 3.5%, 1.7%, and 1.2% for Pr(III), Nd(III), and HNO 3 , respectively. Power set augmentations of the model and LOF samples were investigated to optimize the number of training set samples. PLSR models built using just required model points (10) had similar predictive capabilities as models including the LOF points (20) but with fewer samples. The number of validation samples was also varied systematically to learn how many samples are needed to validate regression models. This work addresses long-standing questions in the field of chemometrics to help make this approach amenable to the near-real-time quantification of hazardous species in remote settings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monitoring Preferential Flow of Water in Sand Using Thermoacoustics Wave Imaging

Abstract Accurate predictions of fluid flow, mass transport, and reaction rates critically impact the efficiency and reliability of subsurface exploration and sustainable use of subsurface resources. Quantitative dynamical sensing and imaging can play a pivotal role in the ability to make such predictions. Geophysical thermoacoustic technology has the potential to provide the aforementioned capabilities, since it builds upon the principle that electromagnetic and mechanical wave fields can be coupled through a thermodynamic process. In this letter, we present laboratory experiments featuring the efficacy of thermoacoustic imaging in the monitoring of preferential flow of water in porous media. Our laboratory experimental equipment can be readily packaged in a form factor that fits in a borehole, and the use of multiple acoustic transducers—which can be combined with volumetric coding techniques—has the potential to provide quasi‐real‐time imaging (0.5 Hz video rate) of regions in close proximity (a few meters) of an open field well.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deadlock prediction via generalized dependency

Deadlocks are notorious bugs in multithreaded programs, causing serious reliability issues. However, they are difficult to be fully expunged before deployment, as their appearances typically depend on specific inputs and thread schedules, which require the assistance of dynamic tools. However, existing deadlock detection tools mainly focus on locks, but cannot detect deadlocks related to condition variables. This paper presents a novel approach to fill this gap. It extends the classic lock dependency to generalized dependency by abstracting the signal for the condition variable as a special resource so that communication deadlocks can be modeled as hold-and-wait cycles as well. It further designs multiple practical mechanisms to record and analyze generalized dependencies. In the end, this paper presents the implementation of the tool, called UnHang. Experimental results on real applications show that UnHang is able to find all known deadlocks and uncover two new deadlocks. Overall, UnHang only imposes around 3% performance overhead and 8% memory overhead, making it a practical tool for the deployment environment.

Zhou, Jinpeng↗
DOE OSTI2019

Backsheets: Correlation of Long-Term Field Reliability with Accelerated Laboratory Testing

Our objective is to develop for backsheets a predictive tests and a model based on point-in-time data from analytical techniques and datastreams that are applicable to both outdoor and indoor PV module backsheet studies and are supplemented with meteorology data, climatic and brand/model, and other accessible information. The predictive tests and models will specify indoor and outdoor exposure and evaluation data acquisition criteria, variable selection, and temporal duration and variation so as to be able to predict backsheet performance in various climatic zones. This backsheet performance prediction is based on defined backsheet failures in the field, and is quantified by tracking backsheet degradation in the field so as to determine degradation rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Framework to Support Generator Ramping Uncertainty Analysis and Visualization

Power system operation requires maintaining a continuous balance between system demand and generation within certain constraints. Traditionally, the balancing processes are based on deterministic models, which do not consider possible random deviations of system generation and load from their predicted values. With the increasing penetration of the renewable generation, unexpected balancing problems can happen due to the deviations. This can result in serious risks to system reliability and efficiency. When the available balancing reserve is not enough to cover the predicted net load range with uncertainty, deficiency of balancing needs occurs. In this case, it is necessary to commit or de-commit additional conventional generators to achieve the desired confidence level for the balancing needs. The framework is built for solving this problem. The ramping tool engine is used to predict additional balancing requirements caused by the variability and uncertainty of the renewable energy, under the constraints of the generation ramping capability and interchange schedule. The web browser- based GUI is used to visualize the data in web-environment, which provides flexibility to allow user to see the ramping outputs in any platform. The GOSS structure provides strong support to allow easy communication between ramping engine, and system inputs, as well as the GUI.

Chen, Yousu↗
NASA NTRS2016

Machine-z: Rapid Machine-Learned Redshift Indicator for Swift Gamma-Ray Bursts

Studies of high-redshift gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide important information about the early Universe such as the rates of stellar collapsars and mergers, the metallicity content, constraints on the re-ionization period, and probes of the Hubble expansion. Rapid selection of high-z candidates from GRB samples reported in real time by dedicated space missions such as Swift is the key to identifying the most distant bursts before the optical afterglow becomes too dim to warrant a good spectrum. Here, we introduce 'machine-z', a redshift prediction algorithm and a 'high-z' classifier for Swift GRBs based on machine learning. Our method relies exclusively on canonical data commonly available within the first few hours after the GRB trigger. Using a sample of 284 bursts with measured redshifts, we trained a randomized ensemble of decision trees (random forest) to perform both regression and classification. Cross-validated performance studies show that the correlation coefficient between machine-z predictions and the true redshift is nearly 0.6. At the same time, our high-z classifier can achieve 80 per cent recall of true high-redshift bursts, while incurring a false positive rate of 20 per cent. With 40 per cent false positive rate the classifier can achieve approximately 100 per cent recall. The most reliable selection of high-redshift GRBs is obtained by combining predictions from both the high-z classifier and the machine-z regressor.

gamma-ray burst: general↗