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DOE OSTI2016

Capacity Payments in Restructured Markets under Low and High Penetration Levels of Renewable Energy

There is considerable debate about the degree to which restructured markets perform successfully in their use of capacity markets. In providing appropriate incentives for new and existing generation to meet reliability requirements, a variety of capacity market designs have developed across RTOs and ISOs in the United States and internationally. Growing levels of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources arguably create new challenges for capacity market designs, because VREs suppress energy prices while providing relatively little capacity, with these effects increase with VRE penetration. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we provide a brief outline of the purpose and design of various capacity markets under consideration using variable resource requirement (VRR) demand curves. Second, we discuss some of the main challenges raised in existing literature and a set of interviews that we conducted with market participants, regulators, and observers, including where there substantive differences in opinion. Third, we consider some of the challenges that may be specific to higher penetration levels of VRE. While the well known 'merit order' effect from VRE can be expected to suppress wholesale energy prices and revenue, this may be partly mitigated by increased capacity payments and the greater importance of AS payments for flexible capacity. The potential for greater reliance on capacity markets for generator revenues may amplify any inefficiency and costs associated with capacity price volatility and other suboptimal market design choices. Regulatory intervention to ensure adequate capacity payments and ancillary service revenue may become more prevalent under current market designs as the timescale for market signals shifts increasingly from near term (e.g., day-ahead in wholesale electricity markets) to longer term (annual intervals in capacity markets). Our review and discussion with market participants suggest substantive challenges may remain in implementing capacity markets that provide both adequate operational and investment incentives, particularly under high-VRE scenarios with greater need for flexible capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Riverine organic matter functional diversity increases with catchment size

A large amount of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is transported to the ocean from terrestrial inputs each year (~0.95 Pg C per year) and undergoes a series of abiotic and biotic reactions, causing a significant release of CO 2 . Combined, these reactions result in variable DOM characteristics (e.g., nominal oxidation state of carbon, double-bond equivalents, chemodiversity) which have demonstrated impacts on biogeochemistry and ecosystem function. Despite this importance, however, comparatively few studies focus on the drivers for DOM chemodiversity along a riverine continuum. Here, we characterized DOM within samples collected from a stream network in the Yakima River Basin using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry (i.e., FTICR-MS). To link DOM chemistry to potential function, we identified putative biochemical transformations within each sample. We also used various molecular characteristics (e.g., thermodynamic favorability, degradability) to calculate a series of functional diversity metrics. We observed that the diversity of biochemical transformations increased with increasing upstream catchment area and landcover. This increase was also connected to expanding functional diversity of the molecular formula. This pattern suggests that as molecular formulas become more diverse in thermodynamics or degradability, there is increased opportunity for biochemical transformations, potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle where transformations in turn increase diversity and diversity increase transformations. We also observed that these patterns are, in part, connected to landcover whereby the occurrence of many landcover types (e.g., agriculture, urban, forest, shrub) could expand DOM functional diversity. For example, we observed that a novel functional diversity metric measuring similarity to common freshwater molecular formulas (i.e., carboxyl-rich alicyclic molecules) was significantly related to urban coverage. These results show that DOM diversity does not decrease along stream networks, as predicted by a common conceptual model known as the River Continuum Concept, but rather are influenced by the thermodynamic and degradation potential of molecular formula within the DOM, as well as landcover patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

SolarView: Georgia Solar Adoption in Context

The local-national gap is a problem currently plaguing the adoption of emerging technologies targeted at resolving energy transition issues that are characterized by disparities in the adoption of innovations and policies on a local level in response to national policy implementation. These disparities reflect a complex system of technical, economic, social, political, and ecological factors linked to the perceptions held by communities and how they see energy development and national/global policy goals. This dataset is an attempt to bridge the local-national gap regarding solar PV adoption in the State of Georgia (U.S.) by aggregating variables from seven different publicly-available sources. The objective of this activity was to design a resource that would help researchers interested in the context underlying solar adoption on the local scale of governance (e.g., the county level). The SolarView database includes information necessary for informing policy-making activities such as solar installation information, a historical county zip code directory, county-level census data, housing value indexes, renewable energy incentive totals, PV rooftop suitability percentages, and utility rates. As this is a database from multiple sources, incomplete data entries are noted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Laboratory study of the heterogeneous ice nucleation on black-carbon-containing aerosol

Abstract. Soot and black carbon (BC) particles are generated in the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biomass, and biofuels. These airborne particles affect air quality, human health, aerosol–cloud interactions, precipitation formation, and climate. At present, the climate effects of BC particles are not well understood. Their role in cloud formation is obscured by their chemical and physical variability and by the internal mixing states of these particles with other compounds. Ice nucleation in field studies is often difficult to interpret. Nonetheless, most field studies seem to suggest that BC particles are not efficient ice-nucleating particles (INPs). On the other hand, laboratory measurements show that in some cases, BC particles can be highly active INPs under certain conditions. By working with well-characterized BC particles, our aim is to systematically establish the factors that govern the ice nucleation activity of BC. The current study focuses on laboratory measurements of the effectiveness of BC-containing aerosol in the formation of ice crystals in temperature and ice supersaturation conditions relevant to cirrus clouds. We examine ice nucleation on BC particles under water-subsaturated cirrus cloud conditions, commonly understood as deposition-mode ice nucleation. We study a series of well-characterized commercial carbon black particles with varying morphologies and surface chemistries as well as ethylene flame-generated combustion soot. The carbon black particles used in this study are proxies for atmospherically relevant BC aerosols. These samples were characterized by electron microscopy, mass spectrometry, and optical scattering measurements. Ice nucleation activity was systematically examined in temperature and saturation conditions in the ranges of 217≤T≤235 K and 1.0≤Sice≤1.5 and 0.59≤Swater≤0.98, respectively, using a SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) instrument, which is a continuous-flow diffusion chamber coupled with instrumentation to measure light scattering and polarization. To study the effect of coatings on INPs, the BC-containing particles were coated with organic acids found in the atmosphere, namely stearic acid, cis-pinonic acid, and oxalic acid. The results show significant variations in ice nucleation activity as a function of size, morphology, and surface chemistry of the BC particles. The measured ice nucleation activity dependencies on temperature, supersaturation conditions, and the physicochemical properties of the BC particles are consistent with an ice nucleation mechanism of pore condensation followed by freezing. Coatings and surface oxidation modify the initial formation efficiency of pristine ice crystals on BC-containing aerosol. Depending on the BC material and the coating, both inhibition and enhancement in INP activity were observed. Our measurements at low temperatures complement published data and highlight the capability of some BC particles to nucleate ice under low ice supersaturation conditions. These results are expected to help refine theories relating to soot INP activation in the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. In this study, we analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the E3SM to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ELM-3D v1.0). Multiple 10-year-long simulations were performed for a transect across a polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SR and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model predictions better agreed (higher R 2 , lower bias and RMSE) with observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59°C, 1.82°C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~ 10 cm shallower and ~ 5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on maximum thaw depths was modest, with mean absolute differences of ~ 3 cm. Our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the E3SM land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of microtopographic snow-redistribution and lateral subsurface processeson hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. Here, we analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the ACME Earth System Model (ESM) to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ALMv0-3D). Three 10-years long simulations were performed for a transect across polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SR and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model results show a better agreement (higher R 2 with lower bias and RMSE) for the observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59 °C, 1.82 °C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~10 cm shallower and ~5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on active layer depths was modest with mean absolute difference of ~3 cm. Our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the ACME land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by County Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for each county in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). The four future climate scenarios in the TGW data are: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. For the historical period and each of the four future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the spatial-average of six meteorological variables for each county: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and the U (east-west) and V (north-south) components of the wind speed. Times for each file are in the filename and all times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Counties are identified by their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The mapping between counties and FIPS codes is provided in the state_and_county_fips_codes.csv file. The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

County↗

NASA NTRS1972

Numerical solutions of several reflected shock-wave flow fields with nonequilibrium chemical reactions

The method of characteristics for a chemically reacting gas is used in the construction of the time-dependent, one-dimensional flow field resulting from the normal reflection of an incident shock wave at the end wall of a shock tube. Nonequilibrium chemical reactions are allowed behind both the incident and reflected shock waves. All the solutions are evaluated for oxygen, but the results are generally representative of any inviscid, nonconducting, and nonradiating diatomic gas. The solutions clearly show that: (1) both the incident- and reflected-shock chemical relaxation times are important in governing the time to attain steady state thermodynamic properties; and (2) adjacent to the end wall, an excess-entropy layer develops wherein the steady state values of all the thermodynamic variables except pressure differ significantly from their corresponding Rankine-Hugoniot equilibrium values.

Hanson, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Thermochemical nonequilibrium in atomic hydrogen at elevated temperatures

A numerical study of the nonequilibrium flow of atomic hydrogen in a cascade arc was performed to obtain insight into the physics of the hydrogen cascade arc. A rigorous mathematical model of the flow problem was formulated, incorporating the important nonequilibrium transport phenomena and atomic processes which occur in atomic hydrogen. Realistic boundary conditions, including consideration of the wall electrostatic sheath phenomenon, were included in the model. The governing equations of the asymptotic region of the cascade arc were obtained by writing conservation of mass and energy equations for the electron subgas, an energy conservation equation for heavy particles and an equation of state. Finite-difference operators for variable grid spacing were applied to the governing equations and the resulting system of strongly coupled, stiff equations were solved numerically by the Newton-Raphson method.

Scott, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A finite element solution algorithm for the Navier-Stokes equations

A finite element solution algorithm is established for the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations governing the steady-state kinematics and thermodynamics of a variable viscosity, compressible multiple-species fluid. For an incompressible fluid, the motion may be transient as well. The primitive dependent variables are replaced by a vorticity-streamfunction description valid in domains spanned by rectangular, cylindrical and spherical coordinate systems. Use of derived variables provides a uniformly elliptic partial differential equation description for the Navier-Stokes system, and for which the finite element algorithm is established. Explicit non-linearity is accepted by the theory, since no psuedo-variational principles are employed, and there is no requirement for either computational mesh or solution domain closure regularity. Boundary condition constraints on the normal flux and tangential distribution of all computational variables, as well as velocity, are routinely piecewise enforceable on domain closure segments arbitrarily oriented with respect to a global reference frame.

Baker, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

The light curve of a transient X-ray source

The Ariel-V satellite monitored the X-ray light curve of A1524-62 almost continuously from 40 days prior to maximum light until its disappearance below the effective experimental sensitivity. The source exhibited maximum light on approximately 4 December 1974, at a level of 0.9 the apparent magnitude of the Crab Nebula in the energy band 3-6 keV. Although similar to previously reported transient sources with a decay time constant of approximately 2 months, the source exhibited an extended, variable pre-flare on-state of about 1 month at a level of greater than approximately 0.1 maximum light. The four bright (greater than 0.2 of the Crab Nebula) transient sources observed during the first half-year of Ariel-V operation are indicative of a galactic disk distribution, and a luminosity at maximum in excess of 10 to the 37th power ergs/sec.

Kaluzienski, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1975

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Friedman, N.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Einstein X-ray observations of Proxima Centauri and the surrounding region

The first detection of both quiescent and flaring soft X-ray emission from a dMe flare star, Proxima Centauri (dM5e) is reported. The data are analyzed for temporal variability and spectral characteristics. The quiescent state is characterized by a mean X-ray luminosity of 1.5 x 10 to the 27th erg s/s, corresponding to a mean surface flux of 700,000 erg s/sq cm-s, and an inferred temperature of 4-million K. The flare that is detected has a peak flux of 7.4 x 10 to the 27th erg s/s and a peak temperature of 17-million K. The implications of these data for models of the quiescent and flare coronae of dMe stars are discussed.

Haisch, B. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Some characteristic quantities of Karman-Trefftz profiles

For von Karman-Trefftz profiles, the characteristics which determine profile shape (profile nose dimensions, maximum thickness and position: tail slope and curvature) are stated as a function of transformation variables using the Timman method. The profile is obtained by iterative deformation of a von Karman profile with known transformation, corresponding as well as possible to the desired profile. The figures and relations which enable a good choice of the required profile are given.

Blom, J. J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Multifrequency observations of dwarf novae outbursts

Studies using EXOSAT and IUE data combined with ground-based optical and IR photometry, spectroscopy and polarimetry of the transition timescales and physical properties of the high accretion rate states of the disks in cataclysmic variables are discussed. Implications for dwarf novae stem from comparison of the timing and amplitude of the optical and IR rise with that of the UV and X-ray; the development of the optical and UV line profile changes as the outburst develops; and the similarity of the outburst flux distributions in different systems and different types of outbursts (standstills and supermaxima). These features of dwarf novae outbursts present interesting comparisons with the outbursts of systems like TV Col and GK Per.

Szkody, P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Computational wing design in support of an NLF variable sweep transition flight experiment

A natural laminar flow outer panel wing glove has been designed for a variable sweep fighter aircraft using state-of-the-art computational techniques. Testing of the design will yield wing pressure and boundary-layer data under actual flight conditions and environment. These data will be used to enhance the understanding of the interaction between crossflow and Tollmien-Schlichting disturbances on boundary-layer transition. The outer wing panel was contoured such that a wide range of favorable pressure gradients could be obtained on the wing upper surface. Extensive computations were performed to support the design effort which relied on two- and three-dimensional transonic design and analysis techniques. A detailed description of the design procedure that evolved during this study is presented. Results on intermediate designs at various stages in the design process demonstrate how the various physical and aerodynamic constraints were integrated into the design. Final results of the glove design analyzed as part of the complete aircraft configuration with a full-potential wing/body analysis code indicate that the aerodynamic design objectives were met.

Waggoner, E. G.↗