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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Fully Coupled Geomechanics and Discrete Flow Network Modeling of Hydraulic Fracturing for Geothermal Applications

The primary objective of our current research is to develop a computational test bed for evaluating borehole techniques to enhance fluid flow and heat transfer in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Simulating processes resulting in hydraulic fracturing and/or the remobilization of existing fractures, especially the interaction between propagating fractures and existing fractures, represents a critical goal of our project. To this end, we are continuing to develop a hydraulic fracturing simulation capability within the Livermore Distinct Element Code (LDEC), a combined FEM/DEM analysis code with explicit solid-fluid mechanics coupling. LDEC simulations start from an initial fracture distribution which can be stochastically generated or upscaled from the statistics of an actual fracture distribution. During the hydraulic stimulation process, LDEC tracks the propagation of fractures and other modifications to the fracture system. The output is transferred to the Non-isothermal Unsaturated Flow and Transport (NUFT) code to capture heat transfer and flow at the reservoir scale. This approach is intended to offer flexibility in the types of analyses we can perform, including evaluating the effects of different system heterogeneities on the heat extraction rate as well as seismicity associated with geothermal operations. This paper details the basic methodology of our approach. Two numerical examples showing the capability and effectiveness of our simulator are also presented.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Binary fish passage models for uniform and nonuniform flows

Binary fish passage models are considered by many fisheries managers to be the best 21 available practice for culvert inventory assessments and for fishway and barrier design. 22 Misunderstandings between different binary passage modeling approaches often arise, 23 however, due to differences in terminology, application and presentation. In this paper 24 one-dimensional binary fish passage models are reviewed and refined to clarify their 25 origins and applications. For uniform flow, a simple exhaustion-threshold (ET) model 26 equation is derived that predicts the flow speed threshold in a fishway or velocity barrier 27 that causes exhaustion at a given maximum distance of ascent. Flow speeds at or above 28 the threshold predict failure to pass (exclusion). Flow speeds below the threshold predict 29 passage. The binary ET model is therefore intuitive and easily applied to predict passage 30 or exclusion. It is also shown to be consistent with the distance-maximizing model. The 31 ET model s limitation to uniform flow is addressed by deriving a passage model that 32 accounts for nonuniform flow conditions more commonly found in the field, including 33 backwater profiles and drawdown curves. Comparison of these models with 34 experimental observations of volitional passage for Gambusia affinis in uniform and 35 nonuniform flows indicates reasonable prediction of binary outcomes (passage or 36 exclusion) if the flow speed is not near the threshold flow velocity. More research is 37 needed on fish behavior, passage strategies under nonuniform flow regimes and 38 stochastic methods that account for individual differences in swimming performance at or 39 near the threshold flow speed. Future experiments should track and measure ground 40 speeds of ascending fish to test nonuniform flow passage strategies and to improve model 41 predictions. Stochastic models, such as Monte-Carlo techniques, that account for 42 different passage performance among individuals and allow prediction of the percentage 43 of fish passing would be particularly useful near flow speed thresholds where binary 44 passage models are clearly limited.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reinforcement learning pulses for transmon qubit entangling gates

The utility of a quantum computer is highly dependent on the ability to reliably perform accurate quantum logic operations. For finding optimal control solutions, it is of particular interest to explore model-free approaches, since their quality is not constrained by the limited accuracy of theoretical models for the quantum processor—in contrast to many established gate implementation strategies. In this work, we utilize a continuous control reinforcement learning algorithm to design entangling two-qubit gates for superconducting qubits; specifically, our agent constructs cross-resonance and CNOT gates without any prior information about the physical system. Using a simulated environment of fixed-frequency fixed-coupling transmon qubits, we demonstrate the capability to generate novel pulse sequences that outperform the standard cross-resonance gates in both fidelity and gate duration, while maintaining a comparable susceptibility to stochastic unitary noise. We further showcase an augmentation in training and input information that allows our agent to adapt its pulse design abilities to drifting hardware characteristics, importantly, with little to no additional optimization. Our results exhibit clearly the advantages of unbiased adaptive-feedback learning-based optimization methods for transmon gate design.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2012

A coarse-grained model for synergistic action of multiple enzymes on cellulose

In this study, degradation of cellulose to glucose requires the cooperative action of three classes of enzymes, collectively known as cellulases. Endoglucanases randomly bind to cellulose surfaces and generate new chain ends by hydrolyzing -1,4-D-glycosidic bonds. Exoglucanases bind to free chain ends and hydrolyze glycosidic bonds in a processive manner releasing cellobiose units. Then, -glucosidases hydrolyze soluble cellobiose to glucose. Optimal synergistic action of these enzymes is essential for efficient digestion of cellulose. Experiments show that as hydrolysis proceeds and the cellulose substrate becomes more heterogeneous, the overall degradation slows down. As catalysis occurs on the surface of crystalline cellulose, several factors affect the overall hydrolysis. Therefore, spatial models of cellulose degradation must capture effects such as enzyme crowding and surface heterogeneity, which have been shown to lead to a reduction in hydrolysis rates. As a result, we present a coarse-grained stochastic model for capturing the key events associated with the enzymatic degradation of cellulose at the mesoscopic level. This functional model accounts for the mobility and action of a single cellulase enzyme as well as the synergy of multiple endo- and exo-cellulases on a cellulose surface. The quantitative description of cellulose degradation is calculated on a spatial model by including free and bound states of both endo- and exo-cellulases with explicit reactive surface terms (e.g., hydrogen bond breaking, covalent bond cleavages) and corresponding reaction rates. The dynamical evolution of the system is simulated by including physical interactions between cellulases and cellulose. In conclusion, our coarse-grained model reproduces the qualitative behavior of endoglucanases and exoglucanases by accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of the cellulose surface as well as other spatial factors such as enzyme crowding. Importantly, it captures the endo-exo synergism of cellulase enzyme cocktails. This model constitutes a critical step towards testing hypotheses and understanding approaches for maximizing synergy and substrate properties with a goal of cost effective enzymatic hydrolysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Measurements of Galaxy Star Formation Stochasticity from the Intrinsic Scatter of Burst Indicators

Abstract Measurements of short-timescale star formation variations (i.e., “burstiness” or star formation stochasticity) are integral to our understanding of star formation feedback mechanisms and the assembly of stellar populations in galaxies. We expand upon the work of Broussard et al. by introducing a new analysis of galaxy star formation burstiness that accounts for variations in the Q sg = E B − V stars / E B − V gas distribution, a major confounding factor. We use Balmer decrements from the MOSFIRE Deep Evolution Field (MOSDEF) survey to measure Q sg , which we use to construct mock catalogs from the Santa Cruz Semi-Analytic Models and Mufasa cosmological hydrodynamical simulation based on 3D-HST, Fiber Multi-Object Spectrograph (FMOS)-COSMOS, and MOSDEF galaxies with H α detections. The results of the mock catalogs are compared against observations using the burst indicator η = log 10 ( SFR H α / SFR NUV ) , with the standard deviation of the η distribution indicating burstiness. We find decent agreement between mock and observed η distribution shapes; however, the FMOS-COSMOS and MOSDEF mocks show a systematically low median and scatter in η in comparison to the observations. This work also presents the novel approach of analytically deriving the relationship between the intrinsic scatter in η , scatter added by measurement uncertainties, and observed scatter, resulting in an intrinsic burstiness measurement of 0.06–0.16 dex.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A feasibility study of dynamic adaptive radiotherapy for nonsmall cell lung cancer

Purpose: The final state of the tumor at the end of a radiotherapy course is dependent on the doses given in each fraction during the treatment course. This study investigates the feasibility of using dynamic adaptive radiotherapy (DART) in treating lung cancers assuming CBCT is available to observe midtreatment tumor states. DART adapts treatment plans using a dynamic programming technique to consider the expected changes of the tumor in the optimization process. Methods: DART is constructed using a stochastic control formalism framework. It minimizes the total expected number of tumor cells at the end of a treatment course, which is equivalent to maximizing tumor control probability, subject to the uncertainty inherent in the tumor response. This formulation allows for nonstationary dose distributions as well as nonstationary fractional doses as needed to achieve a series of optimal plans that are conformal to the tumor over time, i.e., spatiotemporally optimal plans. Sixteen phantom cases with various sizes and locations of tumors and organs-at-risk (OAR) were generated using in-house software. Each case was planned with DART and conventional IMRT prescribing 60 Gy in 30 fractions. The observations of the change in the tumor volume over a treatment course were simulated using a two-level cell population model. Monte Carlo simulations of the treatment course for each case were run to account for uncertainty in the tumor response. The same OAR dose constraints were applied for both methods. The frequency of replanning was varied between 1, 2, 5 (weekly), and 29 times (daily). The final average tumor dose and OAR doses have been compared to quantify the potential dosimetric benefits of DART. Results: The average tumor max, min, mean, and D95 doses using DART relative to these using conventional IMRT were 124.0%–125.2%, 102.1%–114.7%, 113.7%–123.4%, and 102.0%–115.9% (range dependent on the frequency of replanning). The average relative maximum doses for the cord and esophagus, mean doses for the heart and lungs, and D05 for the unspecified tissue resulting 84%–102.4%, 99.8%–106.9%, 66.9%–85.6%, 58.2%–78.8%, and 85.2%–94.0%, respectively. Conclusions: It is feasible to apply DART to the treatment of NSCLC using CBCT to observe the midtreatment tumor state. Potential increases in the tumor dose and reductions in the OAR dose, particularly for parallel OARs with mean or dose–volume constraints, could be achieved using DART compared to nonadaptive IMRT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Data-driven optimal charging decision making for connected and automated electric vehicles: A personal usage scenario

This study introduces an optimal charging decision making framework for connected and automated electric vehicles under a personal usage scenario. This framework aims to provide charging strategies, i.e. the choice of charging station and the amount of charged energy, by considering constraints from personal daily itineraries and existing charging infrastructure. A data-driven method is introduced to establish a stochastic energy consumption prediction model with consideration of realistic uncertainties. This is performed by analyzing a large scale electric vehicle data set. A real-time updating method is designed to construct this prediction model from new consecutive data points in an adaptive way for real-world applications. Based on this energy cost prediction framework from real electric vehicle data, multistage optimal charging decision making models are introduced, including a deterministic model for average outcome decision making and a robust model for safest charging strategies. A dynamic programming algorithm is proposed to find the optimal charging strategies. Detailed simulations and case studies demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms to find optimal charging strategies. They also show the potential capability of connected and automated electric vehicles to reduce the range anxiety and charging infrastructure dependency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

A unified view of hierarchy approach and formula of differentiation

The stochastic differential equation is a powerful tool for describing the dynamics of a dissipative system in which noise characterizes the influence of the environment. For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise, both the formula of differentiation and the hierarchy approach provide efficient numerical simulations, with the stochastic differential equation transformed into a set of coupled, linear ordinary differential equations. We show that while these two deterministic schemes result in different sets of equations, they can be regarded as two representations of an underlying linear-dynamics. Moreover, by manipulating the involved Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise, we propose a unified algorithm that may reduce to the hierarchy approach or the formula of differentiation in different limits. We further analyze the numerical performance of this algorithm and find that the hierarchy approach appears to be more efficient for our numerical model studies.

Yan, Yun-An (ORCID:000000031943459X)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Phase separation of self-propelled ballistic particles

Self-propelled particles phase-separate into coexisting dense and dilute regions above a critical density. The statistical nature of their stochastic motion lends itself to various theories that predict the onset of phase separation. However, these theories are ill-equipped to describe such behavior when noise becomes negligible. To overcome this limitation, we present a predictive model that relies on two density-dependent timescales: $τ_F$, the mean time particles spend between collisions; and $τ_C$, the mean lifetime of a collision. We show that only when $τ_F$ < $τ_C$ do collisions last long enough to develop a growing cluster and initiate phase separation. Finally, using both analytical calculations and active particle simulations, we measure these timescales and determine the critical density for phase separation in both two and three dimensions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

Williams Colin P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modelling and analysis of turbulent datasets using Auto Regressive Moving Average processes

We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded time series to a discrete version of a stochastic differential equation which is able to describe the correlation structure in the dataset. We introduce a new index Υ that measures the difference between the resulting analysis and the Obukhov model of turbulence, the simplest stochastic model reproducing both Richardson law and the Kolmogorov spectrum. We test the method on datasets measured in a von Kármán swirling flow experiment. We found that the ARMA analysis is well correlated with spatial structures of the flow, and can discriminate between two different flows with comparable mean velocities, obtained by changing the forcing. Moreover, we show that the Υ is highest in regions where shear layer vortices are present, thereby establishing a link between deviations from the Kolmogorov model and coherent structures. These deviations are consistent with the ones observed by computing the Hurst exponents for the same time series. We show that some salient features of the analysis are preserved when considering global instead of local observables. Finally, we analyze flow configurations with multistability features where the ARMA technique is efficient in discriminating different stability branches of the system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Pareto Efficient Policy for Supervisory Power Management Control

n this paper we address the problem of online optimization of the supervisory power management control in parallel hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). We model HEV opera- tion as a controlled Markov chain using the long-run expected average cost per unit time criterion, and we show that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion online. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is validated through simulation and compared to the solution derived with dynamic programming using the average cost criterion.

Markov chain↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Shock Compression and Strain Rate Effect in Composites and Polymers

Polymers are increasingly being utilized as monolithic materials and composite matrices for structural applications historically reserved for metals. High strain and high strain-rate applications in aerospace, defense, and automotive industries have lead to interest in utilizing the ability of many polymers to withstand extensions to failure of several hundred percent, often without localization or necking and their strong rate dependence. A broad range of characterization techniques will be presented for semi-crystalline polymers and composites including elastic-plastic fracture, split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB), plate impact including soft-recovery and lateral gage measurements and Taylor Impact. Gas-launched, plate impact experiments have been performed on pedigreed PTFE 7C, mounted in momentum-trapped, shock assemblies, with impact pressures above and below the phase II to phase III crystalline transition to probe subtle changes in the crystallinity, microstructure, and mechanical response of PTFE. Observed strong anisotropy on the hugoniot and spall behavior of fiber-reinforced composites will be discussed. Polymers are known to exhibit a strong dependence of the yield stress on temperature and strain-rate that are often observed to be linear for temperature and logarithmic for strain-rate. Temperature and strain-rate dependence will be reviewed in terms of classic time-temperature superposition and an empirical mapping function for superposition between temperature and strain-rate. The recent extension of the new Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion (Dyn-Ten-Ext) technique to probe the dynamic tensile responses of polymers will be discussed, where more irregular deformation and stochastic-based damage and failure mechanisms than the stable plastic elongation and shear instabilities observed that in metals. The opportunity to use of Dyn-Ten-Ext to probe incipient damage at very high strain-rate by linking in situ and post mortem experimental observations with high-fidelity simulation will be introduced. The potential to study polymer deformation under even more extreme conditions by employing explosive drive to induce Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) growth linking with in situ diagnosis by proton radiography will be proposed. Finally, a case study of collaboration between experimentalists and modelers to study the shock induced phase transition of PTFE presented. Building on a history of shock and Diamond Anvil Cell data it has long been know that PTFE exhibits a pressure induced phase transition at 0.7 GPa. The transition has historically been assumed and reported to be dependent on the hydrostatic pressure. However, studies employing neutron diffraction have suggested the phase transition is driven by only the principle stress applied to the compliant direction of crystalline domain. A multiphase model based on the Maxwell-type viscoelastic formulation was developed to include the stress deviator to drive potential martensitic transition and time to reflects the kinetic nature of the transitions demonstrating the need to account for both a martensitic nature and kinetics of the transition to capture subtle experimental observables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2016

Adaptive Sparse-Grid Stochastic Collocation Uncertainty Quantification Convergence for Multigroup Diffusion

Advanced methods in uncertainty quantification for numerical models in computational physics continue to gain acceptance in nuclear modeling. Previously, the efficiency of sparse-grid stochastic collocation in comparison with Monte Carlo for uncertainty quantification through convergence studies was demonstrated. An adaptive method for anisotropic sparse grid collocation and its convergence compared to previous efforts is considered. The physical system in consideration is a two-dimensional quarter-core reactor, consisting of 5 materials distributed in 121 regions. The two-group neutron diffusion criticality approximation is solved. Vacuum boundaries are applied on the top and right, and reflecting boundaries on the bottom and left. The material cross sections, neutron multiplication factors, and diffusion coefficients are potential sources of uncertainty. Uniformly-distributed uncertainty within 5% of the reference values is introduced for material properties. The distribution of the uncertain parameters make up the uncertainty space Γ included in R{sup N}, where N is the number of uncertain parameters. The input parameter uncertainties are independently distributed. As expected, the convergence of Monte Carlo on the benchmark as a function of computational solves is nearly linear and lethargic compared to the other methods. The static isotropic index set, in which each input dimension is treated with equal importance, converges much more efficiently than Monte Carlo, but lacks the benefit of emphasizing some dimensions over others. The anisotropic case is most efficient, where first-order sensitivity information was used to determine anisotropic weights for polynomials to use in the polynomial chaos expansion. Interestingly, the adaptive algorithm converges slightly less efficiently than the anisotropic case, while still performing better than the isotropic case. Because the adaptive case has to determine the importance of each input dimension, it occasionally predicts inaccurately and wastes computation solves compared to the more ideal anisotropic case. However, in circumstances when an ideal anisotropy is not understood a priori, the adaptive algorithm may be optimally efficient in representing the original model. Given the potential loss of efficiency when using a poorly-chosen anisotropic weighting, the adaptive algorithm may be an effective choice for initial uncertainty quantification in problems with a low-dimensionality input space. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

An adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for high-dimensional nonlinear inverse modeling

The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos basis functions in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Selection of basis functions is particularly important for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos basis functions required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE basis functions are pre-set based on users' experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the basis functions kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE basis functions for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of basis functions in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm was tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗