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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

The ongoing destabilization of the mosul dam as observed by synthetic aperture radar interferometry

We present a detailed survey here on the ongoing destabilization process of the Mosul dam. The dam is located on the Tigris river and is the biggest hydraulic structure in Iraq. From a geological point of view the dam foundation is unstable due to the underlying geology that is formed by alternate and variable strata of highly soluble materials such as gypsum, anhydrite, marl and limestone. We present the first comprehensive multi-sensor cumulative deformation map for the dam generated from space-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements from the Italian constellation COSMO-SkyMed and the European Sentinel-1a satellite. We compared 2014-2016 data to an historic dataset spanning 2004-2010 acquired with the Envisat ASAR sensor. We found that deformation was rapid during 2004-2010, slowed down in 2012-2014, and restarted in August 2014 when grouting operations stopped due to the temporary capture of the dam by the self proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). We took advantage of the availability of data from multiple SAR satellites to infer the deformation at the dam in great spatial and temporal detail and shed new light on the processes of the ongoing destabilization. This study highlights how new constellations of SAR sensors together with the availability of historical datasets are leading to important advances in deformation monitoring of small scale geologic and manmade features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Amplitude−temporal characteristics of a supershort avalanche electron beam generated during subnanosecond breakdown in air and nitrogen

The amplitude−temporal characteristics of a supershort avalanche electron beam (SAEB) with an amplitude of up to 100 A, as well as of the breakdown voltage and discharge current, are studied experimentally with a picosecond time resolution. The waveforms of discharge and SAEB currents are synchronized with those of the voltage pulses. It is shown that the amplitude−temporal characteristics of the SAEB depend on the gap length and the designs of the gas diode and cathode. The mechanism for the generation of runaway electron beams in atmospheric-pressure gases is analyzed on the basis of the obtained experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Performance Analysis of Speculative Parallel Adaptive Local Timestepping for Conservation Laws

Stable simulation of conservation laws, such as those used to model fluid dynamics and plasma physics applications, requires the satisfaction of the so-called Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition. By allowing regions of the mesh to advance with different timesteps that locally satisfy this stability constraint, significant work reduction can be attained when compared to a time integration scheme using a single timestep size. However, parallelizing this algorithm presents considerable difficulty. Since the stability condition depends on the state of the system, dependencies become dynamic and potentially non-local. In this article, we present an adaptive local timestepping algorithm using an optimistic (Timewarp-based) parallel discrete event simulation. We introduce waiting heuristics to limit misspeculation and a semi-static load balancing scheme to eliminate load imbalance as parts of the mesh require finer or coarser timesteps. Last, we outline an interface for separating the physics of the specific conservation law from the temporal integration allowing for productive adoption of our proposed algorithm. We present a misspeculation study for three conservation laws, demonstrating both the productivity of the local timestepping API, for which 74% of the lines of code are reused across different conservation laws, and the robustness of the waiting heuristics—at most 1.5% of element updates are rolled back. Our performance studies demonstrate up to a 2.8× speedup versus a baseline unoptimized local timestepping approach, a 4x improvement in per-node throughput compared to an MPI parallelization of synchronous timestepping, and scalability up to 3,072 cores on NERSC’s Cori Haswell partition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

How MJO Teleconnections and ENSO Interference Impacts U.S. Precipitation

A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-tropospheric flow and regional low-level moisture availability. Upper-level divergence associated with the MJO tropical convection drives a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to the midlatitudes. This forces a midlatitude upper-level dipolar geopotential height anomaly that is accompanied by a westward retraction of the jet stream and reduced rainfall over the central-eastern North Pacific. A reverse effect is found as the MJO propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent. These large differences in the extratropical upper-level flow, combined with anomalies in the regional supply of water vapor, have a profound impact on southeastern U.S. rainfall. The low-frequency variability, including that associated with ENSO, can modify the seasonal background flow (e.g., El Niño and La Niña basic states) affecting the distribution, strength, and propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation and the extratropical teleconnection patterns. The combined effects of the ENSO and the MJO signals result in both spatial and temporal patterns of interference and modulation of North American rainfall. The results from this study show that during a particular phase of an active MJO, the extratropical response can considerably enhance or mask the interannual ENSO signal in the United States, potentially resulting in anomalies of the opposite sign than that expected during a specific ENSO phase. Analyses of specific MJO events during an El Niño or La Niña episode reveal significant contributions to extreme events via constructive and destructive interference of the MJO and ENSO signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study reported herein examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, the analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced by high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted toward floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. The findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Shallow-Velocity Reductions on 3D Propagation of Seismic Waves

Abstract We perform 3D simulations of seismic wavefields to clarify effects of strong reductions of shallow velocities on long-period seismic waves. The simulations use a reference Community Velocity Model of southern California and a modified version with strong velocity reductions in the top 500 m of the Los Angeles basin. Differences between wavefields generated by 10 earthquakes in the reference and perturbed models are analyzed. Velocity changes are estimated by measuring relative time shifts between reference and perturbed seismograms using wavelet cross-correlation spectra. The results indicate that strong localized temporal velocity drops near the surface, such as those observed during strong ground motions, may generate regional perturbations of wavefields at periods up to 20 s. These perturbations may be misinterpreted as generated by temporal changes at seismogenic depths. The results also have important implications for waveform tomography studies.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

PANTHER Grand Challenge LDRD: Human Analytics Research Summary

This summary of PANTHER Human Analytics work describes three of the team's major work activities: research with teams to elicit and document work practices; experimental studies of visual search performance and visual attention; and the application of spatio-temporal algorithms to the analysis of eye tracking data. Our intent is to provide basic introduction to the work area and a selected set of representative HA team publications as a starting point for readers interested our team's work.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide uptake in a blue carbon habitat

A better understanding of carbon cycling dynamics in coastal ecosystems is critical to quantify “blue carbon” storage. However, obtaining the necessary measurements is complicated due to the dynamic conditions that characterize these ecosystems, and requires both spatially and temporally resolved measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations and complementary water quality parameters. In this study, we evaluate the use of a utility-class autonomous surface vehicle as a platform for measuring carbon dioxide dynamics in a shallow, intertidal, blue carbon ecosystem. We integrated a carbon dioxide sensor, a water quality sonde, and hydroacoustic sensors with an autonomous surface vehicle and performed measurements in and around a meadow of Zostera marina eelgrass. Results demonstrate the utility of this system to provide insight into complex carbon cycling dynamics in and around a shallow, intertidal blue carbon habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Stress Roughness at Utah FORGE Through Simulation of Hydraulic Fracture Growth During 16A Stage 3 Stimulation

In most geologic formations, the vertical gradient of the minimum horizontal stress (𝜎 h ) exceeds the hydrostatic gradient, often driving hydraulic fractures to propagate upward. However, observations indicate that the upward growth of real hydraulic fractures is less pronounced than theoretical predictions based on smoothly varying 𝜎 h fields. In fact, the layered structure of sedimentary rocks hinders fracture propagation across layers, partially explaining the limited height growth observed in practice (Zoback et al., 2022). While crystalline rocks lack the pervasive layered fabric of sedimentary formations, they still possess structural fabric formed over their geologic history, resulting in inherently "rough" in situ stress fields. Recent studies have identified another key factor: the "roughness" of in situ stress, characterized by temporal, relatively short-wavelength fluctuations superimposed on the overall stress gradient. This stress roughness leads to apparent toughness anisotropy, where the vertical toughness appears significantly larger than the horizontal toughness (P. Fu et al., 2019; Dontsov & Suarez-Rivera, 2021). Neglecting the effects of rock fabric and stress roughness can yield inaccurate predictions of hydraulic fracture geometry and growth rates at larger length scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Secondary fast magnetoacoustic waves trapped in randomly structured plasmas

Fast magnetoacoustic waves are an important tool for inferring parameters of the solar atmosphere. We numerically simulate the propagation of fast wave pulses in randomly structured plasmas that mimic the highly inhomogeneous solar corona. A network of secondary waves is formed by a series of partial reflections and transmissions. These secondary waves exhibit quasi-periodicities in both time and space. Since the temporal and spatial periods are related simply through the speed of the fast wave, we quantify the properties of secondary waves by examining the dependence of the average temporal period ( p-bar ) on the initial pulse width (w {sub 0}) and studying the density contrast (δ{sub ρ}) and correlation length (L {sub c}) that characterize the randomness of the equilibrium density profiles. For small-amplitude pulses, δ{sub ρ} does not alter p-bar significantly. Large-amplitude pulses, on the other hand, enhance the density contrast when δ{sub ρ} is small but have a smoothing effect when δ{sub ρ} is sufficiently large. We found that p-bar scales linearly with L {sub c} and that the scaling factor is larger for a narrower pulse. However, in terms of the absolute values of p-bar , broader pulses generate secondary waves with longer periods, and this effect is stronger in random plasmas with shorter correlation lengths. Secondary waves carry the signatures of both the leading wave pulse and the background plasma. Our study may find applications in magnetohydrodynamic seismology by exploiting the secondary waves detected in the dimming regions after coronal mass ejections or extreme ultraviolet waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. Here, the reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model study of the diurnal variation of mesospheric O3

Diurnal variation of ozone between 50 to 80 km is studied for both oxygen-only and O-N-H-C atmospheres. The temporal variation of ozone density along the ray path as well as that due to the change in the local zenith angle are included in the model computations. The difference between cases with and without the temporal variation of ozone density, is examined. It is found that the inclusion of this variation reduces the ozone concentration at all altitudes. In addition, the greatest effect on the ozone concentration is during sunrise and sunset.

Wang, P. H.↗

The acceleration of charged particles in interplanetary shock waves

Consideration of the theoretical and observational literature on energetic ion acceleration in interplanetary shock waves is the basis for the present discussion of the shock acceleration of the solar wind plasma and particle transport effects. It is suggested that ISEE data be used to construct data sets for shock events that extend continuously from solar wind to galactic cosmic ray energies, including data for electrons, protons, alphas and ions with Z values greater than 2.0, and that the temporal and spatial evolution of two- and three-dimensional particle distribution functions be studied by means of two or more spacecraft.

Pesses, M. E.↗

The Venus environment; Proceedings of the International Conference, Palo Alto, CA, November 1-6, 1981

Attention is given to noble gases in planetary atmospheres, the photochemistry of the stratosphere of Venus, the chemistry of metastable species in the Venusian ionosphere, the Venus ionosphere at grazing incidence of solar radiation, disappearing ionospheres on the nightside of Venus, and the observed composition of the ionosphere of Venus. Other investigations considered are concerned with the predicted electrical conductivity between 0 and 80 km in the Venusian atmosphere, sulfuric acid vapor and other cloud-related gases in the Venus atmosphere, the composition and vertical structure of the lower cloud deck on Venus, amorphous sulfur as the ultraviolet absorber on Venus, and polarization studies of the Venus UV contrasts. A description is provided of topics related to temporal variability of ultraviolet cloud features in the Venus stratosphere, zonal mean circulation at the cloud level on Venus, the influence of thermospheric winds on exospheric hydrogen on Venus, and an analysis of Venus gravity data.

Source record↗

Study of the formation, evolution, and decay of shocks in the heliosphere between 0.5 and 30.0 AU

The spatial and temporal evolution of corotating interaction regions is examined between 0.5 and 30 AU using a solar-wind simulation with a continuous sinusoidally varying velocity, density, and temperature input pulse train. The well-known formation of forward-reverse MHD shock ensembles is followed by their interaction, which results in a highly nonlinear 'pressure' wave that eventually reforms into a new but more irregular set of forward-reverse shock pairs. As a result of these compound interactions, the overall temperature decays much more slowly than the classical steady-state adiabatic radial dependency of R BXP -4/3.

Smith, Z. K.↗

Atmospheric correlation time measurements using coherent CO2 lidar

A pulsed TEA-CO2 lidar with coherent detection was used to measure the correlation time of backscatter from an ensemble of atmospheric aerosol particles which are illuminated by the pulsed radiation. The correlation time of the backscatter return signal is important in studies of atmospheric turbulence and its effects on optical propagation and backscatter. If the temporal coherence of the pulse is large enough, then the temporal coherence of the return signal is dominated by the turbulence and shear for a variety of interesting atmospheric conditions. Various techniques for correlation time measurement are discussed and evaluated.

Ancellet, G. M.↗

Linear stability of compressible Taylor-Couette flow

A temporal stability analysis of compressible Taylor-Couette flow is presented. The viscous flow studied in this paper is contained between two concentric cylinders of infinite length, which are rotating with different angular velocities and are kept at different surface temperatures. The effects of differential rotation and temperature difference on the stability of Taylor-Couette flow are contrasted for a range of Mach numbers ranging from incompressible to Mach 3.0. The relative motion of the cylinders dramatically affects the characteristics of the Couette flow at the onset of instability. The flow is stabilized or destabilized depending upon the temperature ratio and speeds of the two cylinders. Independent of Mach number and temperature ratio, increasing Reynolds number generally promotes a destabilizing effect, indicating the inviscid nature of the Taylor-Couette flow.

Kao, Kai-Hsiung↗