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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Optimizing in a complex world: A statistician's role in decision making

As applied statisticians increasingly participate as active members of problem-solving and decision-making teams, our role continues to evolve. Historically, we may have been seen as those who can help with data collection strategies or answer a specific question from a set of data. Nowadays, we are or strive to be more deeply involved throughout the entire problem-solving process. An emerging role is to provide a set of leading choices from which subject matter experts and managers can choose to make informed decisions. A key to success is to provide vehicles for understanding the trade-offs between candidates and interpreting the merits of each choice in the context of the decision-makers priorities. To achieve this objective, it is helpful to be able (a) to help subject matter experts identify quantitative criteria that match their priorities, (b) eliminate non-competitive choices through the use of a Pareto front, and (c) provide summary tools from which the trade-offs between alternatives can be quantitatively evaluated and discussed. A structured but flexible process for contributing to team decisions is described for situations when all choices can easily be enumerated as well as when a search algorithm to explore a vast number of potential candidates is required. In conclusion, a collection of diverse examples ranging from model selection, through multiple response optimization, and designing an experiment illustrate the approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Suppressing Quantum Circuit Errors Due to System Variability

We present a quantum circuit optimization technique that takes into account the variability in error rates that is inherent across present-day noisy quantum computing platforms. This method can be run after qubit routing or postcompilation and consists of computing isomorphic subgraphs to input circuits and scoring each using heuristic cost functions derived from system calibration data. Using an independent standard algorithmic test suite, we show that it is possible to recover on average nearly 40% of missing fidelity using better qubit selection via efficient to compute cost functions. We demonstrate additional performance gains by considering qubit placement over multiple quantum processors. The overhead from these tools is minimal with respect to other compilation steps, such as qubit routing, as the number of qubits increases. As such, our method can be used to find qubit mappings for problems at the scale of quantum advantage and beyond.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

LaRIS: Targeting Portability and Productivity for LAPACK Codes on Extreme Heterogeneous Systems by Using IRIS

In keeping with the trend of heterogeneity in high-performance computing, hardware manufacturers and vendors are developing new architectures and associated software stacks (e.g., libraries) to harness the best possible performance from commonly used kernels (e.g., linear algebra kernels). However, kernels tuned for one architecture are not portable to others. Moreover, the coexistence of different architectures in a single node makes orchestration difficult. To address these challenges, we introduce LaRIS, a portable framework for LAPACK functionalities. LaRIS ensures a separation between linear algebra algorithms and vendor-library kernels by using the IRIS run time and IRIS-BLAS library. Such abstraction at the algorithm level makes the implementation completely agnostic to the vendor library and architecture. LaRIS uses the IRIS run time to dynamically select the vendor-library kernel and suitable processor architecture at run time. Through LU factorization, we demonstrate that LaRIS can fully utilize different heterogeneous systems by launching and orchestrating different vendor-library kernels without any change in the source code.

Monil, M. A. H.↗

SU-F-J-180: A Reference Data Set for Testing Two Dimension Registration Algorithms

Purpose: To create and characterize a reference data set for testing image registration algorithms that transform portal image (PI) to digitally reconstructed radiograph (DRR). Methods: Anterior-posterior (AP) and Lateral (LAT) projection and DRR image pairs from nine cases representing four different anatomical sites (head and neck, thoracic, abdominal, and pelvis) were selected for this study. Five experts will perform manual registration by placing landmarks points (LMPs) on the DRR and finding their corresponding points on the PI using computer assisted manual point selection tool (CAMPST), a custom-made MATLAB software tool developed in house. The landmark selection process will be repeated on both the PI and the DRR in order to characterize inter- and -intra observer variations associated with the point selection process. Inter and an intra observer variation in LMPs was done using Bland-Altman (B&A) analysis and one-way analysis of variance. We set our limit such that the absolute value of the mean difference between the readings should not exceed 3mm. Later on in this project we will test different two dimension (2D) image registration algorithms and quantify the uncertainty associated with their registration. Results: Using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) there was no variations within the readers. When Bland-Altman analysis was used the variation within the readers was acceptable. The variation was higher in the PI compared to the DRR.ConclusionThe variation seen for the PI is because although the PI has a much better spatial resolution the poor resolution on the DRR makes it difficult to locate the actual corresponding anatomical feature on the PI. We hope this becomes more evident when all the readers complete the point selection. The reason for quantifying inter- and -intra observer variation tells us to what degree of accuracy a manual registration can be done. Research supported by William Beaumont Hospital Research Start Up Fund.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TH-CD-202-01: BEST IN PHYSICS (JOINT IMAGING-THERAPY): Evaluation of the Use of Direct Electron Density CT Images in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: The current standard for calculation of photon and electron dose requires conversion of Hounsfield Units (HU) to Electron Density (ED) by applying a calibration curve specifically constructed for the corresponding CT tube voltage. This practice limits the use of the CT scanner to a single tube voltage and hinders the freedom in the selection of optimal tube voltage for better image quality. The objective of this study is to report a prototype CT reconstruction algorithm that provides direct ED images from the raw CT data independently of tube voltages used during acquisition. Methods: A tissue substitute phantom was scanned for Stoichiometric CT calibrations at tube voltages of 70kV, 80kV, 100kV, 120kV and 140kV respectively. HU images and direct ED images were acquired sequentially on a thoracic anthropomorphic phantom at the same tube voltages. Electron densities converted from the HU images were compared to ED obtained from the direct ED images. A 7-field treatment plan was made on all HU and ED images. Gamma analysis was performed to demonstrate quantitatively dosimetric change from the two schemes in acquiring ED. Results: The average deviation of EDs obtained from the direct ED images was −1.5%±2.1% from the EDs from HU images with the corresponding CT calibration curves applied. Gamma analysis on dose calculated on the direct ED images and the HU images acquired at the same tube voltage indicated negligible difference with lowest passing rate at 99.9%. Conclusion: Direct ED images require no CT calibration while demonstrate equivalent dosimetry compared to that obtained from standard HU images. The ability of acquiring direct ED images simplifies the current practice at a safer level by eliminating CT calibration and HU conversion from commissioning and treatment planning respectively. Furthermore, it unlocks a wider range of tube voltages in CT scanner for better imaging quality while maintaining similar dosimetric accuracy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

PANTHER Grand Challenge LDRD: Human Analytics Research Summary

This summary of PANTHER Human Analytics work describes three of the team's major work activities: research with teams to elicit and document work practices; experimental studies of visual search performance and visual attention; and the application of spatio-temporal algorithms to the analysis of eye tracking data. Our intent is to provide basic introduction to the work area and a selected set of representative HA team publications as a starting point for readers interested our team's work.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Machine Learning in Safeguards at Pebble Bed Reactors

The goal of this project is to investigate and demonstrate the applicability of machine learning (ML) in safeguards at pebble bed reactors (PBRs). The detailed scope of work includes working with DOE-Nuclear Energy and other domain experts to examine current safeguards approaches at PBRs, defining ML tasks that can potentially strengthen the safeguards at PBRs, selecting ML task(s) for proof of concept based on safeguards needs and availability of testbeds and datasets, and developing ML algorithm(s) to demonstrate the feasibility of ML in PBR safeguards.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A SSTDR Methodology, Implementations, and Challenges

Sequence time-domain reflectometry (STDR) and spread spectrum time-domain reflectometry (SSTDR) detect, locate, and diagnose faults in live (energized) electrical systems. In this paper, we survey the present SSTDR literature for discussions on theory, algorithms used in its analysis, and its more prominent implementations and applications. Our review includes both scientific litera-ture and selected patents. We also discuss future applications of SSTDR.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Canonical analysis for increased classification speed and channel selection

The quadratic form can be expressed as a monotonically increasing sum of squares when the inverse covariance matrix is represented in canonical form. This formulation has the advantage that, in testing a particular class hypothesis, computations can be discontinued when the partial sum exceeds the smallest value obtained for other classes already tested. A method for channel selection is presented which arranges the original input measurements in that order which minimizes the expected number of computations. The classification algorithm was tested on data from LARS Flight Line C1 and found to reduce the sum-of-products operations by a factor of 6.7 in comparison with the conventional approach. In effect, the accuracy of a twelve-channel classification was achieved using only that CPU time required for a conventional four-channel classification.

Eppler, W.↗

A satellite digital controller or 'play that PID tune again, Sam'

The problem discussed is to design a digital controller for a typical satellite. The controlled plant is considered to be a rigid body acting in a plane. The controller is assumed to be a digital computer which, when combined with the proposed control algorithm, can be represented as a sampled-data system. The objective is to present a design strategy and technique for selecting numerical values for the control gains (assuming position, integral, and derivative feedback) and the sample rate. The technique is based on the parameter plane method and requires that the system be amenable to z-transform analysis.

Seltzer, S. M.↗

Remote sensing investigations of wetland biomass and productivity for global biosystems research

The relationship between spectral radiance and plant canopy biomass was studied in wetlands. Spectroradiometer data was gathered on Thematic Mapper wavebands 3, 4, and 5, and correlated with canopy and edaphic factors determined by harvesting. The relationship between spectral radiance and plant canopy biomass for major salt and brackish canopy types was determined. Algorithms were developed for biomass measurement in mangrove swamps. The influence of latitudinal variability in canopy structure on biomass assessment of selected plants was investigated. Brackish marsh biomass estimates were obtained from low altitude aircraft and compared with ground measurements. Annual net aerial primary productivity estimates computed from spectral radiance data were compiled for a Spartina alterniflora marsh. Spectral radiance data were expressed as vegetation or infrared index values. Biomass estimates computed from models were in close agreement with biomass estimates determined from harvests.

Klemas, V.↗

LDEF geometry/mass model for radiation analyses

A 3-D geometry/mass model of Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) was generated to aid in the interpretation of ionizing radiation experiments relative to the influence of varying shielding distributions around the dosimetry, and to allow more definitive calculations and comparisons with the measured data. This model takes into account the major individual structural members of the LDEF spacecraft, the mass in each experiment tray, and, for selected trays containing ionizing radiation dosimetry, major parts within the tray are modeled. The geometry/mass model, together with a ray tracing algorithms, was programmed for use both as a stand alone code in determining 3-D shielding distributions at dosimetry locations, and as a geometry module that can be interfaced with radiation transport codes.

Colborn, B. L.↗

A summary of microwave remote sensing investigations planned for BOREAS

The Boreal Ecosystem - Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) is a multidisciplinary field and remote sensing study that will be implemented jointly by the United States and Canada. The goal of BOREAS is to obtain an improved understanding of the interactions between the boreal forest biome and the atmosphere in order to clarify their roles in global change. Specific objectives are to improve the understanding of the processes that govern the exchanges of water, energy, heat, carbon, and trace gases between boreal ecosystems and the atmosphere, and to develop and validate remote sensing algorithms for transferring the understanding of these processes from local to regional scales. Two principal field sites, both within Canada, were selected. The northern site is located near Thompson, Manitoba, and the southern site encompasses Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan. The growing season in the northern site tends to be limited by growing-degree days while the southern site is limited by soil moisture and fire frequency. Most of the field work will occur at these two sites during 1993 and 1994 as part of six field campaigns. The first of these campaigns is scheduled for August 1993 and will involve instrument installation and an operational shakedown. Three large scale Intensive Field Campaigns (IFC's) are scheduled for 1994, along with two smaller scale Focused Field Campaigns (FFC's). The first 1994 campaign will be an FFC designed to capture the biome under completely frozen conditions during the winter. The second FFC and the first IFC are scheduled to capture the spring thaw period. Another IFC will take place in the summer during a period of maximum water stress. Finally, the third FFC will be scheduled to capture the collapse into senescence during the fall.

Mcdonald, Kyle C.↗

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) for the ICESat Mission

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is a new generation lidar and is the primary science payload for NASA's ICESat Mission. The GLAS design combines a 10 cm precision surface lidar with a sensitive dual wavelength cloud and aerosol lidar. GLAS will precisely measure the heights of the Earth's polar ice sheets, establish a grid of accurate height profiles of the Earth's land topography, and profile the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols on a global scale. GLAS will be integrated onto a small spacecraft built by Ball Aerospace, and will be launched into a polar orbit with a 590-630 km altitude at an inclination of 94 degrees. ICESat is is currently planned to launch in winter 2002/03 and GLAS is designed to operate continuously in space for a minimum of 3 years. GLAS will measure the vertical distance from orbit to the Earth's surface with pulses from a ND:YAG laser at a 40 Hz rate. Each 6 nsec wide 1064 nm laser pulse is used to produce a single range measurement. On the surface, the laser footprints have 66 m diameter and approx. 170 m center-center spacings. The GLAS receiver uses a I m diameter telescope to detect laser backscatter and a Si APD to detect the 1064 nm signals. The detector's output is sampled by a digital ranging receiver, which records each transmitted pulse and surface echo waveform with 1 nsec (15 cm) resolution. Each echo pulse is digitized and is reported to ground with a record length of from 200 to 544 samples, depending on the spacecraft's location . The GLAS location and epoch times are measured by a precision GPS receiver carried on the ICESat spacecraft. Initial processing of the echo waveforms within GLAS permits discrimination between cloud and surface echoes for selecting appropriate waveform samples. This selection is guided by an on-board DEM which is used to set the boundaries for the echo pulse search algorithm. Subsequent ground-based echo pulse analysis, along with GPS-based clock frequency estimates, permit final determination of the range to the surface, degree of pulse spreading, and vertical distribution of any vegetation illuminated by the laser. Accurate knowledge of the laser beam's pointing angle is needed to prevent height biases when measuring over tilted surfaces, such as near the boundaries of ice sheets. For surfaces with 2 deg. slopes, knowledge of pointing angle of the beam's centroid angle to better than 10 urad is needed. GLAS uses a stellar reference system (SRS) to measure the pointing angle of each laser firing relative to inertial space. The SRS uses a high precision star camera oriented toward local zenith and a gyroscope to determine the inertial orientation of the SRS optical bench. The far field pattern of each laser is measured pulse relative to the star camera with a laser reference system (LRS). GLAS will also measure the vertical distributions of clouds and aerosols by recording the vertical profiles of laser pulse backscatter at both 1064 and 532 nm. The 1064 rim measurements use the Si APD detector and will be used to measure the height and echo pulse shape from thicker clouds. The lidar receiver at 532 nm uses a narrow bandwidth etalon filter and highly sensitive photon counting detectors. The 532 nm backscatter profiles will be used to measure the vertical extent of thinner clouds and the atmospheric boundary layer. The GLAS instrument component development is complete and the instrument is undergoing final testing and qualification at NASA-Goddard. The GLAS "as-built" characteristics and its expected measurement performance will be discussed.

Abshire, James B.↗

A Temperature Sensor using a Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) Timer for Very Wide Temperature Measurement

A temperature sensor based on a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) Timer was designed for extreme temperature applications. The sensor can operate under a wide temperature range from hot jet engine compartments to cryogenic space exploration missions. For example, in Jet Engine Distributed Control Architecture, the sensor must be able to operate at temperatures exceeding 150 C. For space missions, extremely low cryogenic temperatures need to be measured. The output of the sensor, which consisted of a stream of digitized pulses whose period was proportional to the sensed temperature, can be interfaced with a controller or a computer. The data acquisition system would then give a direct readout of the temperature through the use of a look-up table, a built-in algorithm, or a mathematical model. Because of the wide range of temperature measurement and because the sensor is made of carefully selected COTS parts, this work is directly applicable to the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics/Subsonic Fixed Wing Program--Jet Engine Distributed Engine Control Task and to the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program. In the past, a temperature sensor was designed and built using an SOI operational amplifier, and a report was issued. This work used an SOI 555 timer as its core and is completely new work.

Patterson, Richard L.↗

Mapping Snow Grain Size over Greenland from MODIS

This paper presents a new automatic algorithm to derive optical snow grain size (SGS) at 1 km resolution using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. Differently from previous approaches, snow grains are not assumed to be spherical but a fractal approach is used to account for their irregular shape. The retrieval is conceptually based on an analytical asymptotic radiative transfer model which predicts spectral bidirectional snow reflectance as a function of the grain size and ice absorption. The analytical form of solution leads to an explicit and fast retrieval algorithm. The time series analysis of derived SGS shows a good sensitivity to snow metamorphism, including melting and snow precipitation events. Preprocessing is performed by a Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, which includes gridding MODIS data to 1 km resolution, water vapor retrieval, cloud masking and an atmospheric correction. MAIAC cloud mask (CM) is a new algorithm based on a time series of gridded MODIS measurements and an image-based rather than pixel-based processing. Extensive processing of MODIS TERRA data over Greenland shows a robust performance of CM algorithm in discrimination of clouds over bright snow and ice. As part of the validation analysis, SGS derived from MODIS over selected sites in 2004 was compared to the microwave brightness temperature measurements of SSM\I radiometer, which is sensitive to the amount of liquid water in the snowpack. The comparison showed a good qualitative agreement, with both datasets detecting two main periods of snowmelt. Additionally, MODIS SGS was compared with predictions of the snow model CROCUS driven by measurements of the automatic whether stations of the Greenland Climate Network. We found that CROCUS grain size is on average a factor of two larger than MODIS-derived SGS. Overall, the agreement between CROCUS and MODIS results was satisfactory, in particular before and during the first melting period in mid-June. Following detailed time series analysis of SGS for four permanent sites, the paper presents SGS maps over the Greenland ice sheet for the March-September period of 2004.

Lyapustin, Alexei↗

Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and land surface hydrology through simulation, downscaling, and data assimilation. An overview of the GPM mission, science status, and synergies with HyMex activities will be presented

Hou, Arthur Y.↗