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1,701 records · Page 95

Assessment of CO 2 Storage Resources in Depleted Oil and Gas Fields in the Ship Shoal Area, Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most important regions in the United States for energy resources and infrastructure. Gulf of Mexico federal offshore oil and gas production accounts for 17% of total U.S. crude oil production and 5% of total U.S. gas production (EIA Gulf of Mexico Fact Sheet). This region presents an excellent combination of high need and significant opportunity for large scale geologic storage of CO 2 . The Ship Shoal Area is located about 20 miles offshore Louisiana within the Gulf Coast federal waters. Miocene and Pliocene sediments in the Ship Shoal Area are proven to provide excellent and secure traps for oil and gas. The Ship Shoal Area contains a large number of depleted oil and gas fields either currently abandoned, or planned for abandonment by 2025, which may provide very significant potential CO 2 storage capacity. GeoMechanics Technologies conducted a comprehensive research project to better characterize Neogene sediments in the Ship Shoal Area for high volume CO 2 storage. The data generated from literature, well data, well log, and formation evaluation were input into Rockwork 16 geologic software to create a detailed geologic model for the Ship Shoal study area. The geologic grids were then fed into TOUGH2, the gas migration model software and FLAC 3D, the geomechanical model software. The fluid flow modeling for both the Miocene and Pliocene simulation from both Block 107 and Block 84 indicated that Pliocene and Miocene are a good reservoir for the CO 2 sequestration. Thirty years of CO 2 injection (at a rate of 1 million metric tons CO 2 per year) and 30 years of observation simulations were run with the fluid flow modeling. The 3D geomechanical modeling for Ship Shoal Block 107 and Block 84 were developed to evaluate induced surface deformation and potential fault reactivation after 30 years CO 2 injection at base of Pliocene and at upper Miocene injection locations. Evaluation results indicate low to no risks for fault slips or fault reactivation. Twelve well bores and 76 well bores for Ship Shoal Blocks 84 and 107 respectively were reviewed for their cement history. Most wells (57 out of 76 and 7 out of 12 wells in Ship Shoal Block 107 and 84 respectively) have good integrity. Nineteen and 5 wells (in Ship Shoal Block 107 and 84 respectively) with no top plug, incomplete cement or Plug and Abandonment information are given yellow cautionary indicators. These cautionary wells may provide leakage paths of CO 2 through the well bores to the USDWs. Using our Quantitative Risk & Decision Analysis Tool (QRDAT) for caprock integrity evaluation, we compared Ship Shoal’s risk to that of In Salah, Sleipner, Kevin Dome, Loudon, Illinois Industrial CCS and Wilmington Graben. We found the risk at the Ship Shoal Blocks 84 and 107 fields are similar to the known CO 2 active sequestration sites, but lower than the Wilmington Graben turbidities offshore California studied site. The risk of natural seismicity in the Gulf of Mexico is relatively low. Geomechanics Technologies has documented the top 25 CO 2 emission sources within the close proximity of the Ship Shoal Block 84 and 107 fields. All the offshore and onshore pipelines have been digitized and can be viewed in an interactive website (http://www.geomechanicstech.com/shipshoal.html). We also performed a feasibility study on the potential for converting existing oil or gas pipelines for CO 2 transport. There are abandoned, idled and retired onshore and offshore pipelines. However, there is no standard specification for maximum pipeline pressures needed for CO 2 transport. It is a function of design, materials, and testing provided; thus it will be the responsibility of the pipeline operator to correctly determine, maintain and operate within the limits of the pipelines. There are a few transit corridors extending from onshore Louisiana (Cailou Bay) to offshore trunk-lines. The cost for constructing a pipeline has increased about 46% from 2015 to an average cost of $5,064,046 per mile in 2016. We use the NETL CO 2 storage resource mass estimate to calculate the potential resources for Ship Shoal Block 84 and 107 fields using the depleted oil and gas reservoir volume and sand volume generated from our geologic modeling. The estimated storage resource results are greater when using the sand volumes derived through geologic modeling than the oil and gas reservoir data. The difference is due to the depleted oil and gas reservoir information not accounting for the water-flooded sand located below the oil/gas-water contact or unproductive sand units. Resource calculation using the sand volume obtained through geologic modeling overestimate the storage capacity as the model accounts for all sand within the formation, not just the interconnected sand.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Using Energy Storage-Based Grid Forming Inverters for Operational Reserve in Hybrid Diesel Microgrids

In remote arctic communities, where access to a bulk electrical grid interconnection is not available, the implementation of islanded microgrids has been the most viable way to produce and distribute electricity services to their inhabitants. Historically, these islanded grids have relied primarily on diesel generators or hydropower resources to supply the baseload. However, this practice can result in increased expense due to the high costs associated with fuel transportation and the significant amounts of on-site storage necessary when fuel transportation is unavailable during winter months. In order to mitigate this problem, arctic microgrids have started to transition to a hybrid-source operational mode by incorporating renewable energy sources that are inherently variable in nature, such as wind or solar. Due to their highly stochastic behavior, these hybrid-source islanded microgrids can pose potential issues related to power quality due to introduction of rapid net load fluctuations and inability of diesel generators to respond rapidly. In addition, non-firm stochastic sources can require significant idling diesel generator resources to serve as spinning reserves, which is inefficient and wasteful. This work studies the problems that may arise in the transient dynamics of a real-world hybrid diesel microgrid when subjected to a loss of wind generation. Moreover, this work proposes a transition from a diesel spinning reserve to a battery energy-storage system (BESS) operating reserve scheme. The study of the proposed transition is important in establishing the fundamental implication of transient dynamics and the potential benefits of integrating a BESS as a spinning reserve in terms of stability, frequency nadir, and transient voltage deviation. The methods to investigate and validate the transient dynamics relied on both electromagnetic simulation models of GFMIs and a commercially available GFMI in an experimental power hardware-in-the-loop setup. The simulation results showed that the proposed operating reserve scheme improves the power quality of the system in terms of voltage deviation and frequency nadir when the microgrid is subjected to a loss of wind generation scenario. Depending on the simulation cases, adding a GFMI reduced the frequency nadir between 65.3% and 86.7%. Moreover, the reductions in the voltage deviations improved between 3.6% and 23.0%. From these results it can be concluded that the integration of a GFMI can reduce the frequency nadir in a hybrid diesel microgrid, and in turn, reduce diesel consumption, which improves system reliability while reducing fuel expenses. Furthermore, the novelty of this work relies on the fact that the offline simulation results were validated using a power hardware-in-the-loop platform that incorporated a 100 kVA commercially available GFMI as the device under test.

Hernandez-Alvidrez, Javier↗

Controller-Hardware-in-the-Loop Test Bed for Fast-Switching SiC-Based 50-kW PV Inverter

The recent advent of wideband gap power semiconductor devices will lay the path to the future power converters. These devices provide the advantage of high switching speed and lower losses. The high cost and high switching speeds of these devices provide a challenge in the development and validation of the fast switching inverter controls with accuracy of that of a hardware setup. In this paper an FPGA real-time simulator-based controller-hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) testbed is used to verify the low-level and advanced inverter controls fast switching wide bandgap-based string photovoltaic inverter. The paper also includes development of the CHIL testbed, which is run at a time-step of 500 ns in order to implement 20 kHz switching frequency. The developed CHIL testbed is validated through experimental results from a three-phase, 50 kW, 480 VLLrms SiC devices based inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Turbulence Modeling Verification and Validation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations has been in routine use for more than a quarter of a century. It is currently employed not only for basic research in fluid dynamics, but also for the analysis and design processes in many industries worldwide, including aerospace, automotive, power generation, chemical manufacturing, polymer processing, and petroleum exploration. A key feature of RANS CFD is the turbulence model. Because the RANS equations are unclosed, a model is necessary to describe the effects of the turbulence on the mean flow, through the Reynolds stress terms. The turbulence model is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in RANS CFD, and most models are known to be flawed in one way or another. Alternative methods such as direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) rely less on modeling and hence include more physics than RANS. In DNS all turbulent scales are resolved, and in LES the large scales are resolved and the effects of the smallest turbulence scales are modeled. However, both DNS and LES are too expensive for most routine industrial usage on today's computers. Hybrid RANS-LES, which blends RANS near walls with LES away from walls, helps to moderate the cost while still retaining some of the scale-resolving capability of LES, but for some applications it can still be too expensive. Even considering its associated uncertainties, RANS turbulence modeling has proved to be very useful for a wide variety of applications. For example, in the aerospace field, many RANS models are considered to be reliable for computing attached flows. However, existing turbulence models are known to be inaccurate for many flows involving separation. Research has been ongoing for decades in an attempt to improve turbulence models for separated and other nonequilibrium flows. When developing or improving turbulence models, both verification and validation are important steps in the process. Verification insures that the CFD code is solving the equations as intended (no errors in the implementation). This is typically done either through the method of manufactured solutions (MMS) or through careful step-by-step comparisons with other verified codes. After the verification step is concluded, validation is performed to document the ability of the turbulence model to represent different types of flow physics. Validation can involve a large number of test case comparisons with experiments, theory, or DNS. Organized workshops have proved to be valuable resources for the turbulence modeling community in its pursuit of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Workshop contributors using different CFD codes run the same cases, often according to strict guidelines, and compare results. Through these comparisons, it is often possible to (1) identify codes that have likely implementation errors, and (2) gain insight into the capabilities and shortcomings of different turbulence models to predict the flow physics associated with particular types of flows. These are valuable lessons because they help bring consistency to CFD codes by encouraging the correction of faulty programming and facilitating the adoption of better models. They also sometimes point to specific areas needed for improvement in the models. In this paper, several recent workshops are summarized primarily from the point of view of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Furthermore, the NASA Langley Turbulence Modeling Resource website is described. The purpose of this site is to provide a central location where RANS turbulence models are documented, and test cases, grids, and data are provided. The goal of this paper is to provide an abbreviated survey of turbulence modeling verification and validation efforts, summarize some of the outcomes, and give some ideas for future endeavors in this area.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Introducing Enabling Computational Tools to the Climate Sciences: Multi-Resolution Climate Modeling with Adaptive Cubed-Sphere Grids

The research investigates and advances strategies how to bridge the scale discrepancies between local, regional and global phenomena in climate models without the prohibitive computational costs of global cloud-resolving simulations. In particular, the research explores new frontiers in computational geoscience by introducing high-order Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) techniques into climate research. AMR and statically-adapted variable-resolution approaches represent an emerging trend for atmospheric models and are likely to become the new norm in future-generation weather and climate models. The research advances the understanding of multi-scale interactions in the climate system and showcases a pathway how to model these interactions effectively with advanced computational tools, like the Chombo AMR library developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The research is interdisciplinary and combines applied mathematics, scientific computing and the atmospheric sciences. In this research project, a hierarchy of high-order atmospheric models on cubed-sphere computational grids have been developed that serve as an algorithmic prototype for the finite-volume solution-adaptive Chombo-AMR approach. The foci of the investigations have lied on the characteristics of both static mesh adaptations and dynamically-adaptive grids that can capture flow fields of interest like tropical cyclones. Six research themes have been chosen. These are (1) the introduction of adaptive mesh refinement techniques into the climate sciences, (2) advanced algorithms for nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamical cores, (3) an assessment of the interplay between resolved-scale dynamical motions and subgrid-scale physical parameterizations, (4) evaluation techniques for atmospheric model hierarchies, (5) the comparison of AMR refinement strategies and (6) tropical cyclone studies with a focus on multi-scale interactions and variable-resolution modeling. The results of this research project demonstrate significant advances in all six research areas. The major conclusions are that statically-adaptive variable-resolution modeling is currently becoming mature in the climate sciences, and that AMR holds outstanding promise for future-generation weather and climate models on high-performance computing architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deploy threading in Nalu solver stack

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms composed of many MW-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines, and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary code in the ExaWind project is Nalu, which is an unstructured-grid solver for the acousticallyincompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and mass continuity is maintained through pressure projection. The model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and a momentum equation for the velocity. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as re-initialization of matrices and re-computation of preconditioners is required at every time step In this Milestone, we examine the effect of threading on the solver stack performance against flat-MPI results obtained from previous milestones using Haswell performance data full-turbine simulations. Whereas the momentum equations are solved only with the Trilinos solvers, we investigate two algebraic-multigrid preconditioners for the continuity equations: Trilinos/Muelu and HYPRE/BoomerAMG. These two packages embody smoothed-aggregation and classical Ruge-Stiiben AMG methods, respectively. In our FY18 Q2 report, we described our efforts to improve setup and solve of the continuity equations under flat-MPI parallelism. While significant improvement was demonstrated in the solve phase, setup times remained larger than expected. Starting with the optimized settings described in the Q2 report, we explore here simulation performance where OpenMP threading is employed in the solver stack. For Trilinos, threading is acheived through the Kokkos abstraction where, whereas HYPRE/BoomerAMG employs straight OpenMP. We examined results for our mid-resolution baseline turbine simulation configuration (229M DOF). Simulations on 2048 Haswell cores explored the effect of decreasing the number of MPI ranks while increasing the number of threads. Both HYPRE and Trilinos exhibited similar overal solution times, and both showed dramatic increases in simulation time in the shift from MPI ranks to OpenMP threads. This increase is attributed to the large amount of work per MPI rank starting at the single-thread configuration. Decreasing MPI ranks, while increasing threads, may be increasing simulation time due to thread synchronization and start-up overhead contributing to the latency and serial time in the model. These result showed that an MPI+OpenMP parallel decomposition will be more effective as the amount per MPI rank computation per MPI rank decreases and the communication latency increases. This idea was demonstrated in a strong scaling study of our low-resolution baseline model (29M DOF) with the Trilinos-HYPRE configuration. While MPI-only results showed scaling improvement out to about 1536 cores, engaging threading carried scaling improvements out to 4128 cores — roughly 7000 DOF per core. This is an important result as improved strong scaling is needed for simulations to be executed over sufficiently long simulated durations (i.e., for many timesteps). In addition to threading work described above, the team examined solver-performance improvements by exploring communication-overhead in the HYPRE-GMRES implementation through a communicationoptimal- GMRE algorithm (CO-GMRES), and offloading compute-intensive solver actions to GPUs. To those ends, a HYPRE mini-app was allow us to easily test different solver approaches and HYPRE parameter settings without running the entire Nalu code. With GPU acceleration on the Summitdev supercomputer, a 20x speedup was achieved for the overall preconditioner and solver execution time for the mini-app. A study on Haswell processors showed that CO-GMRES provides benefits as one increases MPI ranks.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Using ARM Measurements to Understand and Reduce the Double ITCZ Biases in the Community Atmospheric Model

1. Understanding of the observed variability of ITCZ in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The annual mean precipitation in the eastern Pacific has a maximum zonal band north of the equator in the ITCZ where the maximum SST is located. During the boreal spring (referring to February, March, and April throughout the present paper), because of the accumulated solar radiation heating and oceanic heat transport, a secondary maximum of SST exists in the southeastern equatorial Pacific. Associated with this warm SST is also a seasonal transitional maximum of precipitation in the same region in boreal spring, exhibited as a weak double ITCZ pattern in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This climatological seasonal variation, however, varies greatly from year to year: double ITCZ in the boreal spring occurs in some years but not in other years; when there a single ITCZ, it can appear either north, south or at the equator. Understanding this observed variability is critical to find the ultimate cause of the double ITCZ in climate models. Seasonal variation of ITCZ south of the eastern equatorial Pacific: By analyzing data from satellites, field measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, we have found that in the region where spurious ITCZ in models occurs, there is a “seasonal cloud transition” — from stratocumulus to shallow cumulus and eventually to deep convection —in the South Equatorial Pacific (SEP) from September to April that is similar to the spatial cloud transition from the California coast to the equator. This seasonal transition is associated with increasing sea surface temperature (SST), decreasing lower tropospheric stability and large-scale subsidence. This finding of seasonal cloud transition points to the same source of model errors in the ITCZ simulations as in simulation of stratocumulus-cumulus-deep convection transition. It provides a test for climate models to simulate the relationships between clouds and large-scale atmospheric fields in a region that features a spurious double Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in most models. This work is recently published in Yu et al. (2016). Interannual variation of ITCZ south of the eastern equatorial Pacific: By analyzing data from satellites, field measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, we have characterized the interannual variation of boreal spring precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific and found the cause of the observed interannual variability. We have shown that ITCZ in this region can occur as a single ITCZ along the Equator, single ITCZ north of the Equator, single ITCZ south of the Equator, and double ITCZ on both sides of the Equator. We have found that convective instability only plays a secondary role in the ITCZ interannual variability. Instead, the remote impact of the Pacific basin-wide SST on the horizontal gradient of surface pressure and wind convergence is the primary driver of this interannual variability. Results point to the need to include moisture convergence in convection schemes to improve the simulation of precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific. This result has been recently submitted for publication (Yu and Zhang 2016). 2. Improvement of model parameterizations to reduce the double ITCZ bias We analyzed the current status of climate model performance in simulating precipitation in the equatorial Pacific. We have found that the double ITCZ bias has not been reduced in CMIP5 models relative to CMIP4 models. We have characterized the dynamic structure of the common bias by using precipitation, sea surface temperature, surface winds and sea-level. Results are published in Zhang et al. (2015): Since cumulus convection plays a significant role in the double ITCZ behavior in models, we have used measurements from ARM and other sources to carry out a systematic analysis of the roles of shallow and deep convection in the CAM. We found that in both CAM4 and CAM5, when the intensity of deep convection decreases as a result of parameterization change, the intensity of shallow convection increases, leading to very different changes in precipitation partitions but little change in the total precipitation. The different precipitation partition however can manifest themselves in other measures of model performances including temperature and humidity. This study points to the need to treat model physical parameterizations as integrated system rather than individual components. Results from this study are published in Wang and Zhang (2013). Since shallow convection interacts with the deep convection scheme and surface turbulence to trigger the double ITCZ, we studied methods to improve the shallow convection scheme in climate models. We investigated the bulk budgets of the vertical velocity and its parameterization in convective cores, convective updrafts, and clouds by using large-eddy simulation (LES) of four shallow convection cases including one from ARM. We proposed optimal forms of the Simpson and Wiggert equation to calculate the vertical velocity in bulk mass flux convection schemes for convective cores, convective updrafts, and convective clouds as parameterization schemes. The new scheme is published in Wang and Zhang (2014). By using long-term radar-based ground measurements from ARM, we derived a scale-aware inhomogeneity parameterization of cloud liquid water in climate models. We found a relationship between the inhomogeneity parameter and the model grid size as well as atmospheric stability. This relationship is implemented in the CESM to describe the subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity. Relative to the default CESM with the finite-volume dynamic core at 2-degree resolution, the new parameterization leads to smaller cloud inhomogeneity and larger cloud liquid-water path in high latitudes, and the opposite effect in low latitudes, with the regional impact on shortwave cloud radiation effect of up to 10 W/m 2 . This is due to both the smaller (larger) grid size in high (low) latitudes in the longitude-latitude grid setting of CESM and the more stable (unstable) atmosphere. This parameterization is expected lead to more realistic simulation of tropical precipitation in high-resolution models. Results from this study are reported in Xie and Zhang (2015).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗