Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “randomized sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Prevalence of elevated blood lead levels among pregnant women and sources of lead exposure in rural Bangladesh: A case control study

Highlights: • Prenatal blood lead levels and lead sources are assessed in rural Bangladesh. • Elevated blood lead levels are found among pregnant women. • Multiple possible sources of lead are identified; all related to food. • Future lead prevention studies should investigate food storage and production. Prenatal and early childhood lead exposures impair cognitive development. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) among pregnant women in rural Bangladesh and to identify sources of lead exposure. We analyzed the BLLs of 430 pregnant women randomly selected from rural communities in central Bangladesh. Fifty-seven cases were selected with the highest BLLs, ≥ 7 μg/dL, and 59 controls were selected with the lowest BLLs, < 2 μg/dL. An exposure questionnaire was administered and soil, rice, turmeric, water, traditional medicine, agrochemical, and can samples were analyzed for lead contamination. Of all 430 women, 132 (31%) had BLLs > 5 μg/dL. Most women with elevated BLLs were spatially clustered. Cases were 2.6 times more likely than controls to consume food from a can (95% CI 1.0–6.3, p = 0.04); 3.6 times more likely to use Basudin, a specific brand of pesticide (95% CI 1.6–7.9, p = 0.002); 3.6 times more likely to use Rifit, a specific brand of herbicide (95% CI 1.7–7.9, p = 0.001); 2.9 times more likely to report using any herbicides (95% CI 1.2–7.3, p = 0.02); and 3.3 times more likely to grind rice (95% CI 1.3–8.4, p = 0.01). Five out of 28 food storage cans were lead-soldered. However, there was minimal physical evidence of lead contamination from 382 agrochemical samples and 129 ground and unground rice samples. Among 17 turmeric samples, one contained excessive lead (265 μg/g) and chromium (49 μg/g). Overall, we found evidence of elevated BLLs and multiple possible sources of lead exposure in rural Bangladesh. Further research should explicate and develop interventions to interrupt these pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental and computational studies on high-entropy carbide MoNbTaVWC 5 under high pressures

High-entropy carbide, MoNbTaVWC 5 , was synthesized from oxide precursors of the constituent metals, mixed with graphite powder in a microwave-generated hydrogen plasma at 26.66 kPa and 2100 °C. Ambient x-ray diffraction analysis confirms the full conversion of oxide precursors into a single-phase, face-centered cubic structure with a lattice parameter a = 4.3309 Å. Nanoindentation measured a hardness of 24.5 ± 1.3 GPa and an elastic modulus of 386 ± 22 GPa. The synthesized sample, mixed with a copper pressure marker, was studied by the radial x-ray diffraction technique with beryllium gasketing in a diamond anvil cell up to 70 GPa. The experimentally measured pressure–volume curve and shear strength were compared with theoretical predictions using the special quasi-random structure technique and density functional theory. MoNbTaVWC 5 achieved a 12% volume compression at 70 GPa and exhibited a high shear strength of 6.6 GPa. The present study demonstrates that the high-entropy carbide MoNbTaVWC 5 exhibits exceptional incompressibility and high strength under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

THE DISTANCE MEASUREMENT OF NGC 1313 WITH CEPHEIDS

We present the detection of Cepheids in the barred spiral galaxy NGC 1313, using the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 on the Hubble Space Telescope. Twenty B(F450W) and V(F555W) epochs of observations spanning over three weeks were obtained, on which the profile-fitting photometry of all stars in the monitored field was performed using the package HSTphot. A sample of 26 variable stars have been identified to be Cepheids, with periods between 3 and 14 days. Based on the derived period-luminosity relations in B- and V-bands, we obtain an extinction-corrected distance modulus of μ{sub NGC} {sub 1313} = 28.32 ± 0.08 (random) ± 0.06 (systematic), employing the Large Magellanic Cloud as the distance zero point calibrator. The above moduli correspond to a distance of 4.61 ± 0.17 (random) ±0.13 (systematic) Mpc, consistent with previous measurements reported in the literature within uncertainties. In addition, the reddening to NGC 1313 is found to be small.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Monte Carlo Event Generation with Continuous Normalizing Flows

We apply continuous normalizing flows trained with the flow matching method to the problem of phase-space sampling in Monte Carlo event generation for high-energy collider physics. Focusing on lepton-pair and top-quark pair production with multiple jets, the two computationally most expensive processes at the Large Hadron Collider, we train helicity-conditioned continuous normalizing flows to remap the random numbers used in matrix element evaluation. Compared to standard methods, we achieve unweighting efficiency improvements by factors of up to 184 and 25 for the two processes at their respective highest jet number, at the cost of an increased evaluation time. When combining the advantages of continuous normalizing flows with the fast evaluation times of coupling-layer-based flows, using the RegFlow approach, we find parton-level unweighted event generation walltime gains of about a factor of 10 at the highest jet numbers. These substantial gains highlight the promise of samplers based on machine learning for next-generation collider experiments.

Bothmann, Enrico [CERN; Gottingen U.] (ORCID:00000↗

Skopi: a simulation package for diffractive imaging of noncrystalline biomolecules

X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) have the ability to produce ultra-bright femtosecond X-ray pulses for coherent diffraction imaging of biomolecules. While the development of methods and algorithms for macromolecular crystallography is now mature, XFEL experiments involving aerosolized or solvated biomolecular samples offer new challenges in terms of both experimental design and data processing. Skopi is a simulation package that can generate single-hit diffraction images for reconstruction algorithms, multi-hit diffraction images of aggregated particles for training machine learning classifiers using labeled data, diffraction images of randomly distributed particles for fluctuation X-ray scattering algorithms, and diffraction images of reference and target particles for holographic reconstruction algorithms. Skopi is a resource to aid feasibility studies and advance the development of algorithms for noncrystalline experiments at XFEL facilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reflectometry of X-ray Whispering Gallery Waves Propagating along Liquid Meniscuses

X-ray reflectometry of whispering galleries (WGs), which propagate along meniscuses of deionized water or silica hydrosols (Ludox{sup ®} SM) enriched by Cs{sup +} ions, was analyzed for the first time. The measurements were performed using the diffractometer with a moving tube-detector system. The X-ray beam rotation angle reached a maximum value of 4° on a silica hydrosol sample at CuK{sub α} radiation, while for H{sub 2}O it is only 1°. The intensities of WG modes propagating near the surface of a concave meniscus were found from the rigorous solution of the respective Helmholtz equation and applying the Monte Carlo technique for the random surface. For analysis of intensities of the X-ray scattering we used a hybrid model of the liquid surface with the upper transition layer having sinusoidal ripples in which the concentration of levitating Cs{sup +} ions has a maximum near the surface, derived from the experiment, while the concentration maximum for SiO{sub 2} particles with sizes of ~6–15 nm is positioned at the depth of ~15 nm from the hydrosol’s surface. Our numerical results for reflectances are in a good agreement with the experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Topological analysis of chaotic orbits: Revisiting Hyperion

There is emerging interest in the possibility of chaotic evolution in astrophysical systems. To mention just one example, recent well-sampled ground-based observations of the Saturian satellite Hyperion strongly suggest that it is exhibiting chaotic behavior. We present a general technique, the method of close returns, for the analysis of data from astronomical objects believed to be exhibiting chaotic motion. The method is based on the extraction of pieces of the evolution that exhibit nearly periodic behavior-episodes during which the object stays near in phase space to some unstable periodic orbit. Such orbits generally act as skeletal features, tracing the topological organization of the manifold on which the chaotic dynamics takes place. This method does not require data sets as lengthy as other nonlinear analysis techniques do and is therefore well suited to many astronomical observing programs. Well sampled data covering between twenty and forty characteristic periods of the system have been found to be sufficient for the application of this technique. Additional strengths of this method are its robustness in the presence of noise and the ability for a user to clearly distinguish between periodic, random, and chaotic behavior by inspection of the resulting two-dimensional image. As an example of its power, we analyze close returns in a numerically generated data set, based on a model for Hyperion extensively studied in the literature, corresponding to nightly observations of the satellite. We show that with a small data set, embedded unstable periodic orbits can be extracted and that these orbits can be responsible for nearly periodic behavior lasting a substantial fraction of the observing run.

Boyd, Patricia T.↗

Quickbird Satellite in-orbit Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) Measurement Using Edge, Pulse and Impulse Methods for Summer 2003

The spatial characteristics of an imaging system cannot be expressed by a single number or simple statement. However, the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) is one approach to measure the spatial quality of an imaging system. Basically, MTF is the normalized spatial frequency response of an imaging system. The frequency response of the system can be evaluated by applying an impulse input. The resulting impulse response is termed the Point Spread function (PSF). This function is a measure of the amount of blurring present in the imaging system and is itself a useful measure of spatial quality. An underlying assumption is that the imaging system is linear and shift-independent. The Fourier transform of the PSF is called the Optical Transfer Function (OTF) and the normalized magnitude of the OTF is the MTF. In addition to using an impulse input, a knife-edge in technique has also been used in this project. The sharp edge exercises an imaging system at all spatial frequencies. The profile of an edge response from an imaging system is called an Edge Spread Function (ESF). Differentiation of the ESF results in a one-dimensional version of the Point Spread Function (PSF). Finally, MTF can be calculated through use of Fourier transform of the PSF as stated previously. Every image includes noise in some degree which makes MTF of PSF estimation more difficult. To avoid the noise effects, many MTF estimation approaches use smooth numerical models. Historically, Gaussian models and Fermi functions were applied to reduce the random noise in the output profiles. The pulse-input method was used to measure the MTF of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) using 8th order even functions over the San Mateo Bridge in San Francisco, California. Because the bridge width was smaller than the 30-meter ground sample distance (GSD) of the TM, the Nyquist frequency was located before the first zero-crossing point of the sinc function from the Fourier transformation of the bridge pulse. To avoid the zero-crossing points in the frequency domain from a pulse, the pulse width should be less than the width of two pixels (or 2 GSD's), but the short extent of the pulse results in a poor signal-to-noise ratio. Similarly, for a high-resolution satellite imaging system such as Quickbird, the input pulse width was critical because of the zero crossing points and noise present in the background area. It is important, therefore, that the width of the input pulse be appropriately sized. Finally, the MTF was calculated by taking ratio between Fourier transform of output and Fourier transform of input. Regardless of whether the edge, pulse and impulse target method is used, the orientation of the targets is critical in order to obtain uniformly spaced sub-pixel data points. When the orientation is incorrect, sample data points tend to be located in clusters that result in poor reconstruction of the edge or pulse profiles. Thus, a compromise orientation must be selected so that all spectral bands can be accommodated. This report continues by outlining the objectives in Section 2, procedures followed in Section 3, descriptions of the field campaigns in Section 4, results in Section 5, and a brief summary in Section 6.

Helder, Dennis↗

Validation of a Remote Sensing Based Index of Forest Disturbance Using Streamwater Nitrogen Data

Vegetation disturbances are known to alter the functioning of forested ecosystems by contributing to export ('leakage') of dissolved nitrogen (N), typically nitrate-N, from watersheds that can contribute to acidification of acid-sensitive streams, leaching of base cations, and eutrophication of downstream receiving waters. Yet, at a landscape scale, direct evaluation of how disturbance is linked to spatial variability in N leakage is complicated by the fact that disturbances operate at different spatial scales, over different timescales, and at different intensities. In this paper we explore whether data from synoptic streamwater surveys conducted in an Appalachian oak-dominated forested river basin in western MD (USA) can be used to test and validate a scalable, synthetic, and integrative forest disturbance index (FDI) derived from Landsat imagery. In particular, we found support for the hypothesis that the interannual variation in spring baseflow total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and nitrate-N concentrations measured at 35 randomly selected stream stations varied as a linear function of the change in FDI computed for the corresponding set of subwatersheds. Our results demonstrate that the combined effects of forest disturbances can be detected using synoptic water quality data. It appears that careful timing of the synoptic baseflow sampling under comparable phenological and hydrometeorological conditions increased our ability to identify a forest disturbance signal.

Eshleman, Keith N.↗

Pervasive small-scale structure in molecular clouds

An unbiased CO survey of molecular cloud cores was completed, and the profiles were analyzed within the context of a model for emission from clumpy clouds. It was found that all sources observed contain a significant amount of structure that is not resolved with our 2.3-arcmin beam, and that the parameters which describe the degree of clumping span a remarkably narrow range of the possible values. We studied two separate samples of cloud cores: a large sample of warm cores from the Massachusetts-Stony Brook 12CO survey of the first galactic quadrant, and a sample of cool cores in the Taurus dark clouds chosen primarily on the basis of H2CO emission. We observed all sources in the 1-0 transition of 12CO and 13CO with the 5-m telescope of the Millimeter Wave Observatory. The 12CO/13CO ratios can be explained if there is unresolved structure giving rise to significant variations of opacity across the beam. Our model cloud consists of a large number of identical clumps distributed randomly in the beam. These clumps have velocity widths v small compared to the width of the observed profile, which is determined by the relative motion of the clumps. The entire cloud is isothermal and in local thermodynamic equilibrium. With these assumptions the intensity and linewidth ratios depend on three parameters: the abundance ratio; the peak 13CO opacity through a single clump, tau(0); and the average number of clumps on a line of sight N. Small tau(0) and large N correspond to the microturbulent limit, which is indistinguishable from a uniform gas distribution. In the other extreme, large tau(0) and snall N, at a given velocity at most one clump contributes to the profile on each line of sight. A figure is presented which shows the model parameters which reproduce the measured intensity and linewidth ratios for the sample of warm cores, assuming an abundance ratio of 75.

Martin, B.↗

Introducing the embedded random phase approximation: H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as an exemplar

The random phase approximation (RPA) as a means of treating electron correlation recently has been shown to outperform standard density functional theory (DFT) approximations in a variety of cases. However, the computational cost of the RPA is substantially more than DFT, especially when aiming to study extended surfaces. Properly accounting for sufficient surface ensemble size, Brillouin zone sampling, and vacuum separation of periodic images in standard periodic-planewave-based DFT code raises the cost to achieve converged results. Here, we show that sub-system embedding schemes enable use of the RPA for modeling heterogeneous reactions at reduced computational cost. Further, we explore two different embedded RPA (emb-RPA) approaches, periodic emb-RPA and cluster emb-RPA. We use the (experimentally and theoretically) well-studied H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as our exemplar, and first perform full periodic RPA calculations as a benchmark. The full RPA results match well the semi-empirical barrier fit to experimental observables and others derived from high-level computations, e.g., from recent embedded n-electron valence second order perturbation theory [Zhao et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16(11), 7078–7088 (2020)] and quantum Monte Carlo [Doblhoff-Dier et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 13(7), 3208–3219 (2017)] simulations. Among the two emb-RPA approaches tested, the cluster emb-RPA accurately reproduces the energy profile (maximum error of 50 meV along the reaction pathway) while reducing the computational cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. We therefore expect that the embedded cluster approach will enable wider RPA implementation in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integrating very-high-resolution UAS data and airborne imaging spectroscopy to map the fractional composition of Arctic plant functional types in Western Alaska

Widespread changes in vegetation cover and composition are driving strong impacts on Arctic ecosystem functioning and global climate feedbacks. An accurate characterization of tundra vegetation composition is required to understand how the Arctic will respond to future climate change. However, quantifying tundra vegetation composition over large areas is challenging as commonly-used satellite observations are too coarse, spatially and spectrally, to differentiate low-lying tundra vegetation types. Recent airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy platforms provide better data to characterize vegetation composition. Yet, our ability to characterize vegetation composition with imaging spectroscopy remains largely unexplored in the Arctic, particularly due to a lack of ground observations needed to train and test classification models. To address this problem, we collected very-high-resolution (VHR, ~5 cm) unoccupied aerial system (UAS) imagery at three low-Arctic tundra sites located on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of integrating imagery from the UAS and the hyperspectral Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer, Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) airborne instrument to map the fractional composition of 12 key Arctic plant functional types (PFTs). To this end, we first mapped the 12 PFTs from our VHR UAS imagery using random forest classification. We then used these UAS-derived PFT maps as ground truth to develop partial least squares regression (PLSR) models to predict the fractional cover (FCover) of each PFT from AVIRIS-NG imagery. Further, we evaluated the performance of our PLSR models using reserved UAS samples, as well as by mapping PFT FCover and dominant PFT for large tundra landscapes. Our results show that 1) Arctic PFTs can be effectively mapped using VHR UAS imagery, with overall accuracy between 86% and 92%, 2) when the UAS mapped PFTs were used to inform PLSR scaling models, the FCover of the 12 PFTs could be effectively estimated from AVIRIS-NG imagery with a mean absolute error (MAE) <0.13, and 3) our PLSR models outperformed traditional, fully constrained least-squares (FCLS) linear mixture analysis and produced high-quality, spatially contiguous PFT FCover and PFT maps that captured vegetation spatial patterns with similar accuracy to those developed from UAS imagery. The developed PLSR models have the potential to be broadly applied for quantifying vegetation composition with AVIRIS-NG images to help monitor tundra vegetation dynamics and improve process-based modeling of tundra ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Fast Randomized Iteration Approach to Full Configuration Interaction

In this work, we present three modifications to our recently introduced fast randomized iteration method for full configuration interaction (FCI-FRI) and investigate their effects on the method’s performance for Ne, H 2 O, and N 2 . The initiator approximation, originally developed for full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo, significantly reduces statistical error in FCI-FRI when few samples are used in compression operations, enabling its application to larger chemical systems. The semistochastic extension, which involves exactly preserving a fixed subset of elements in each compression, improves statistical efficiency in some cases but reduces it in others. We also developed a new approach to sampling excitations that yields consistent improvements in statistical efficiency and reductions in computational cost. We discuss possible strategies based on our findings for improving the performance of stochastic quantum chemistry methods more generally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Monte Carlo simulations of disorder in ZnSn N 2 and the effects on the electronic structure

In multinary compound semiconductors, cation disorder can decisively alter the electronic properties and impact potential applications. ZnSnN 2 is a ternary nitride of interest for photovoltaics, which forms in a wurtzite-derived crystal structure. In the ground state, every N anion is coordinated by two Zn and two Sn cations, thereby observing the octet rule locally. Using a motif-based model Hamiltonian, we performed Monte Carlo simulations that provide atomistic representations of ZnSnN 2 with varying degrees of cation disorder. Subsequent electronic structure calculations describe the evolution of band gaps, optical properties, and carrier localization effects as a function of the disorder. We find that octet-rule conserving disorder is practically impossible to avoid but perfectly benign, with hardly any effects on the electronic structure. In contrast, a fully random cation distribution would be very detrimental, but fortunately it is energetically highly unfavorable. A degree of disorder that can realistically be expected for nonequilibrium thin-film deposition leads to a moderate band-gap reduction and to moderate carrier localization effects. Comparing the simulated structures with experimental samples grown by sputtering, we find evidence that these samples indeed incorporate a certain degree of octet-rule violating disorder, which is reflected in the x-ray diffraction and in the optical absorption spectra. This study demonstrates that the electronic properties of ZnSnN 2 are dominated by changes of the local coordination environments rather than long-range ordering effects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams” submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (L&O) by Danczak et al. (in review). This package contains data and scripts used to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular chemistry and diversification processes across 47 surface-water sampling sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, during an August 2021 sampling campaign. The package contains analyses of ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), geochemical measurements, geospatial attributes, molecular diversity, and meta-metabolome ecological null models needed to reproduce the main manuscript results. The underlying field data were pulled from exising data packages at https://doi.org/10.15485/1892052 (Fulton et al., 2022) and https://doi.org/10.15485/1898914 (Grieger et al., 2022). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. We thank the following organizations for providing access to field locations for sample collection: the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Cowiche Canyon Conservatory. Research was conducted under Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Scientific Research Permit #210901. We are grateful to the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for their collaboration in facilitating sample collection and ensuring data usage aligns with their values and worldview. This data package contains an R-Markdown file for analyses and five folders: (1) Data, (2) Geospatial Data, (3) Supplemental_Files, (5) Figures_pdf, (4) and src. The Data folder contains tabular inputs and derived files used in the manuscript analysis. The Geospatial Data folder contains climate and water-balance, hydrologic, land-cover, population/regional water-use, stream, topographic, and stream-order attribute CSV files. The src folder contains scripts used to process data, run analyses, and generate figures. The Figures_pdf folder contains manuscript figure outputs. The Supplemental_Files folder contains supplemental analysis products. All files are .csv, .pdf, .html, .png, .R, .Rmd, .svg, or .tre. This data package is associated with the rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Species richness and endemism in the native flora of California

California’s vascular flora is the most diverse and threatened in temperate North America. Previous studies of spatial patterns of Californian plant diversity have been limited by traditional metrics, non-uniform geographic units, and distributional data derived from floristic descriptions for only a subset of species. We revisited patterns of sampling intensity, species richness, and relative endemism in California based on equal-area spatial units, the full vascular flora, and specimen-based distributional data. We estimated richness, weighted endemism (inverse range-weighting of species), and corrected weighted endemism (weighted endemism corrected for richness), and performed a randomization test for significantly high endemism. Possible biases in herbarium data do not obscure patterns of high richness and endemism at the spatial resolution studied. High species richness was sometimes associated with significantly high endemism (e.g., Klamath Ranges) but often not. In Stebbins and Major’s (1965) main endemism hotspot, Southwestern California, species richness is high across much of the Peninsular and Transverse ranges but significantly high endemism is mostly localized to the Santa Rosa and San Bernardino mountains. In contrast, species richness is low in the Channel Islands, where endemism is significantly high, as also found for much of the Death Valley region. Measures of taxonomic richness, even with greater weighting of range-restricted taxa, are insufficient for identifying areas of significantly high endemism that warrant conservation attention. Differences between our findings and those in previous studies appear to mostly reflect the source and scale of distributional data, and recent analytical refinements.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗