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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Capturing Hidden Geochemical Anomalies in Scarce Data by Fractal Analysis and Stochastic Modeling

Fractal/multifractal modeling is a widely used geomathematical approach to capturing different populations in geochemical mapping. The rationale of this methodology is based on empirical frequency density functions attained from global or local distributions. This approach is quite popular because of its simplicity and versatility; it accounts for the frequency and spatial distribution of geochemical data considering self-similarity across a range of scales. Using this technique for detection of geochemical anomalies in scarce data, however, is problematic and can lead to systematic bias in the characterization of the underlying populations. In this paper, an innovative technique is presented that provides good results without a priori assumptions. A simulation approach is adopted for fractal analysis by generating different possible distribution scenarios for the variable under study to reveal the underlying populations that are frequently hidden due to lack of data. The proposed technique is called the global simulated size–number method, and it is validated in a case study with two synthetic datasets and another case study with real dataset from the Ushtagan gold deposit in northeast Kazakhstan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Extended Trajectory Mechanics Approach for Calculating the Path of a Pressure Transient: Derivation and Illustration

Following an approach used in quantum dynamics, an exponential representation of the hydraulic head transforms the diffusion equation governing pressure propagation into an equivalent set of ordinary differential equations. Using a reservoir simulator to determine one set of dependent variables leaves a reduced set of equations for the path of a pressure transient. Unlike the current approach for computing the path of a transient, based on a high-frequency asymptotic solution, the trajectories resulting from this new formulation are valid for arbitrary spatial variations in aquifer properties. For a medium containing interfaces and layers with sharp boundaries, the trajectory mechanics approach produces paths that are compatible with travel time fields produced by a numerical simulator, while the asymptotic solution produces paths that bend too strongly into high permeability regions. The breakdown of the conventional asymptotic solution, due to the presence of sharp boundaries, has implications for model parameter sensitivity calculations and the solution of the inverse problem. For example, near an abrupt boundary, trajectories based on the asymptotic approach deviate significantly from regions of high sensitivity observed in numerical computations. In contrast, paths based on the new trajectory mechanics approach coincide with regions of maximum sensitivity to permeability changes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Simulating wind power forecast error distributions for spatially aggregated wind power plants

Dispersion and aggregation of wind power plants lower the uncertainty of wind power by reducing wind power forecasting errors. Using quantitative methods, this paper studies the dispersion's impact on the uncertainty of the aggregated wind power production. A method to simulate day-ahead forecast error distributions at different dispersion and forecasting skill scenarios is presented. The proposed method models the uncertainty of wind power forecasting on an annual basis and at different levels of production. As a result, the uncertainty in the forecasting of spatially dispersed wind power plants is modelled using two continuous distributions: Laplace and beta distribution. The analysis shows that even the production level uncertainty can be modelled in various dispersion and forecasting skill scenarios. The model for aggregated forecast error distributions requires only four variables: capacity-weighted distance of the total wind power plant fleet, mean of the site-specific mean absolute errors (MAEs), number of aggregated wind power plants, and the mean variability of the elevations from the proximities of the aggregated wind power plants. Here, the results are especially promising when the number of aggregated wind power plants exceeds five, the terrain complexity is low or moderate, and the aggregation region is large. This is demonstrated through a case study for Texas, United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Distinct evolution of the carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous reservoirs: Insights from Ru, Mo, and W isotopes

Recent work has identified a nucleosynthetic isotope dichotomy between “carbonaceous” (CC) and “non-carbonaceous” (NC) meteorites. Here in this paper, we report new Ru isotope data for rare iron meteorite groups belonging to the NC and CC suites. We show that by studying the relative isotopic characteristics of Ru, Mo, and W in iron meteorites, it is possible to constrain the processes leading to the distinct isotope heterogeneities in both reservoirs. In NC meteorites, internally normalized, mass-independent isotope ratios of Mo and Ru are correlated, but those of Mo and W are not. In CC meteorites, Mo and W isotope ratios are correlated, but those of Mo and Ru are not; specifically, Mo isotopic compositions are variable and those of Ru are more restricted. The contrasting behaviors of Ru and W relative to Mo in the two reservoirs likely require processing of the presolar carriers under distinct redox conditions. This provides further evidence that NC and CC meteorites originated from spatially separated reservoirs that evolved under different prevailing conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Strength statistics of single crystals and metallic glasses under small stressed volumes

It has been well documented that plastic deformation of crystalline and amorphous metals/alloys shows a general trend of “smaller is stronger”. The majority of the experimental and modeling studies along this line have been focused on finding and reasoning the scaling slope or exponent in the logarithmic plot of strength versus size. In contrast to this view, here we show that the universal picture should be the thermally activated nucleation mechanisms in small stressed volume, the stochastic behavior as to find the weakest links in intermediate sizes of the stressed volume, and the convolution of these two mechanisms with respect to variables such as indenter radius in nanoindentation pop-in, crystallographic orientation, pre-strain level, sample length as in uniaxial tests, and others. Furthermore, experiments that cover the entire spectrum of length scales and a unified model that treats both thermal activation and spatial stochasticity have discovered new perspectives in understanding and correlating the strength statistics in a vast of observations in nanoindentation, micro-pillar compression, and fiber/whisker tension tests of single crystals and metallic glasses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, for this work, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980–2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations of global accretion disks with vertical magnetic fields

We report results of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of global accretion disks threaded with weak vertical magnetic fields. We perform the simulations in the spherical coordinates with different temperature profiles and accordingly different rotation profiles. In the cases with a spatially constant temperature, because the rotation frequency is vertically constant in the equilibrium condition, general properties of the turbulence excited by magnetorotational instability are quantitatively similar to those obtained in local shearing box simulations. On the other hand, in the cases with a radially variable temperature profile, the vertical differential rotation, which is inevitable in the equilibrium condition, winds up the magnetic field lines in addition to the usual radial differential rotation. As a result, the coherent wound magnetic fields contribute to the Maxwell stress in the surface regions. We obtain nondimensional density and velocity fluctuations ∼0.1-0.2 at the midplane. The azimuthal power spectra of the magnetic fields show shallower slopes, ∼m {sup 0} – m {sup –1}, than those of velocity and density. The Poynting flux associated with the MHD turbulence drives intermittent and structured disk winds as well as sound-like waves toward the midplane. The mass accretion mainly occurs near the surfaces, and the gas near the midplane slowly moves outward in the time domain of the present simulations. The vertical magnetic fields are also dragged inward in the surface regions, while they stochastically move outward and inward around the midplane. We also discuss an observational implication of induced spiral structure in the simulated turbulent disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A ground-based albedo upper limit for HD 189733b from polarimetry

We present 50 nights of polarimetric observations of HD 189733 in the B band using the POLISH2 aperture-integrated polarimeter at the Lick Observatory Shane 3-m telescope. This instrument, commissioned in 2011, is designed to search for Rayleigh scattering from short-period exoplanets due to the polarized nature of scattered light. Since these planets are spatially unresolvable from their host stars, the relative contribution of the planet-to-total system polarization is expected to vary with an amplitude of the order of 10 parts per million (ppm) over the course of the orbit. Non-zero and also variable at the 10 ppm level, the inherent polarization of the Lick 3-m telescope limits the accuracy of our measurements and currently inhibits conclusive detection of scattered light from this exoplanet. However, the amplitude of observed variability conservatively sets a 99.7% confidence upper limit to the planet-induced polarization of the system of 60 ppm in the B band, which is consistent with a previous upper limit from the POLISH instrument at the Palomar Observatory 5-m telescope. A physically motivated Rayleigh scattering model, which includes the depolarizing effects of multiple scattering, is used to conservatively set a 99.7% confidence upper limit to the geometric albedo of HD 189733b of A{sub g} < 0.40. This value is consistent with the value A{sub g}=0.226±0.091 derived from occultation observations with Hubble Space Telescope STIS, but it is inconsistent with the large A{sub g}=0.61±0.12 albedo reported by Berdyugina et al.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A search for ultrahigh-energy neutrinos associated with astrophysical sources using the third flight of ANITA

The ANtarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) long-duration balloon experiment is sensitive to interactions of ultrahigh-energy (E>10 18 eV) neutrinos in the Antarctic ice sheet. The third flight of ANITA, lasting 22 days, began in December 2014. We develop a methodology to search for energetic neutrinos spatially and temporally coincident with potential source classes in ANITA data. This methodology is applied to several source classes: the potential IceCube-identified neutrino sources TXS 0506+056 and NGC 1068, flaring high-energy blazars reported by the Fermi All-Sky Variability Analysis, gamma-ray bursts, and supernovae. Among searches within the five source classes, one candidate was identified as associated with SN 2015D, although not at a statistically significant level. Finally, we proceed to place upper limits on the source classes. We further comment on potential application of this methodology to more sensitive future instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Differential responses of carbon and water vapor fluxes to climate among evergreen needleleaf forests in the USA

Here, understanding the differences in carbon and water vapor fluxes of spatially distributed evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs) is crucial for accurately estimating regional or global carbon and water budgets and when predicting the responses of ENFs to current and future climate. We compared the fluxes of ten AmeriFlux ENF sites to investigate cross-site variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET). We used wavelet cross-correlation analysis to examine responses of NEE and ET to common climatic drivers over multiple timescales and also determined optimum values of air temperature (T a) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for NEE and ET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Beam Halo Monitor

Muons, Inc. proposed improved Residual-Gas luminescent Beam Profile Monitors for Intense Beams by adding novel features including a mirascope, a light collecting device devised in the 16th century by an inventor of the telescope. A modern mirascope consists of 2 paraboloids. Light generated by the beam is collected by the paraboloids and creates a beam image. By placing a lens near the image it is possible to collect almost 100% of the emitted light, up to ten times better than existing fluorescence profilometers. Intense (multi-MW) proton beams pose a challenge for beam profile measurements. Solid-based beam intercepting instrumentation produces unallowable levels of radiation at these high powers. An alternative is to use a zero-or-low mass device such as a residual-gas profile monitor, either through collection of ionization or fluorescence. Fluorescence has an intrinsic advantage over the usual collection of ionized electrons in that it is not affected by the strong and variable electric and magnetic fields created by the beam that can distort profiles and make calibration difficult. For this reason, we proposed the fluorescence technique using the mirascope and other methods to enhance light collection and versatility by modifying the residual gas and its spatial distribution. In Phase I, we designed a mirascope and its electronics for commissioning and beam tests in a proposed Phase II. The design was based on optical simulations done in Phase I, and a physics run plan was developed for optimizing and testing. The Phase II experimental site and program have been planned and our goal is to produce a universal low cost Mirascope Residual-Gas Luminescent Beam Profile Monitor that can replace all other profile monitors currently used in accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit

Wind resource data for North America was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The WRF model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interm) data set with an initial grid spacing of 54 km. Three internal nested domains were used to refine the spatial resolution to 18, 6, and finally 2 km. The WRF model was run for years 2007 to 2014. While outputs were extracted from WRF at 5 minute time-steps, due to storage limitations instantaneous hourly time-step are provided for all variables while full 5 min resolution data is provided for wind speed and wind direction only. The following variables were extracted from the WRF model data: - Wind Speed at 10, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, 160, 200 m - Wind Direction at 10, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, 160, 200 m - Temperature at 2, 10, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, 160, 200 m - Pressure at 0, 100, 200 m - Surface Precipitation Rate - Surface Relative Humidity - Inverse Monin Obukhov Length

API↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alaska Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

The Alaska MET (Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission) Toolkit is the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) new flagship atmospheric dataset, designed to support comprehensive long-term planning and operations across the entire power sector. Serving as the regional counterpart to CONUS-wide HRRR MET Toolkit, this dataset provides a comprehensive, high-fidelity meteorological record covering Alaska.The Alaska MET Toolkit is delivered at an hourly resolution on a standardized 2-km horizontal grid. This dataset is repackaged from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh for Alaska (HRRR-AK) forecasts. Spanning from 2019 to 2025, it overcomes the technical barriers of native weather models by providing spatial regridding from the native 3-km HRRR-AK horizontal resolution to a 2-km grid, temporal gap-filling, and vertical interpolation at key energy-relevant heights. By delivering highly accurate, validation-backed data across a comprehensive suite of atmospheric variables - including temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind characteristics - the Alaska MET Toolkit provides a highly accessible and strictly standardized foundation for modern power system modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

Fang, Yilin↗
DOE OSTI2018

How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO

Decadal climate variability of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean can be characterized by interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) or Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Although the procedures to derive the IPO and PDO indices differ in their regional focuses and filtering methods to remove interannual variability, the IPO and PDO are highly correlated in time and are often used interchangeably. Studies have shown that the IPO and PDO conjointly (IPO/PDO for conciseness) play a vital role in modulating the pace of global warming. It is less clear, however, how externally forced global warming may, in turn, affect the IPO/PDO. One obstacle to revealing this effect is that the conventional definitions of the IPO/PDO fail to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the background warming trend, which causes the IPO/PDO to be conflated with the warming trend, especially for the twenty-first-century simulation when the forced change is likely to be more dominant. Using a large-ensemble simulation in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), it is shown here that a better practice of detrending prior to EOF analysis is to remove the local and nonlinear trend, defined as the ensemble-mean time series at each grid box (or simply as the quadratic fit of the local time series if such an ensemble is not available). The revised IPO/PDO index is purely indicative of internal decadal variability. In the twenty-first-century warmer climate, the IPO/PDO has a weaker amplitude in space, a higher frequency in time, and a muted impact on global and North American temperature and rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Seasonal southern hemisphere multi-variable reflection of the southern annular mode in atmosphere and ocean reanalyses

Variations of southern hemisphere (SH) climate variables are often linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. We examined such linkage by seasons using state-of-the-art atmosphere and ocean/sea-ice reanalyses. The associated SAM related anomaly (SRA) fields of the climate variables, denoting anomalies corresponding to the same variation in SAM, are overall consistent across the reanalyses. Among the atmospheric products, 20CRV2 differs from ERA-interim and CFSR in the sea-level pressure SRAs over the Amundsen Sea, resulting in less warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. Among the ocean reanalyses, ORAP5 and C-GLORS exhibit the largest consistency. The major difference between them and the lower-resolution CFSR and SODA reanalyses is deeper penetration of anomalous meridional currents. Compared to the other ocean reanalyses, CFSR exhibits stronger and spatially more coherent surface-current SRAs, resulting in greater SRAs of sea-ice motion and ice thickness along the ice edges. The SRAs of sensible and total surface heat fluxes are reduced in CFSR due to ocean–atmosphere coupling. Significant sea-ice concentration SRAs are present on the west side of peninsulas along the east Antarctica coast in spring and winter, most notably in ORAP5 and C-GLORS, implying changes in new-ice production and shelf-water formation. Most atmosphere and ocean variables manifest an annular SRA pattern in summer and a non-annular pattern in the other seasons, with a wavenumber-3 structure strongest in autumn and weakest in summer. The wavenumber-3 structure should be related to the zonal wave three pattern of the SH circulation, the relation of which to SAM needs further exploration.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ultrasonic Evaluation of Segmental Variability in Additively Manufactured Metal Components

One of the primary challenges with additively manufactured metal components is the potential for the material heterogeneity, such as the variations in density, porosity, and elasticity. These heterogeneities are difficult to predict and can cause the deviation in material strength and structural reliability from the specified design. This paper presents a novel approach to the ultrasound characterization of spatially varying material properties and its application to a sample manufactured by the selective laser melting. The method is demonstrated for a 3D-printed aluminum alloy sample. The independent measurements of the elastic modulus, the surface morphology, and the X-ray computed tomography of the sample were consistent with the ultrasound results.

Roy, Manish↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗