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How to Develop and Interpret a Credibility Assessment of Numerical Models for Human Research: NASA-STD-7009 Demystified

In the wake of the Columbia accident, the NASA-STD-7009 [1] credibility assessment was developed as a unifying platform to describe model credibility and the uncertainties in its modeling predictions. This standard is now being adapted by NASAs Human Research Program to cover a wide range of numerical models for human research. When used properly, the standard can improve the process of code development by encouraging the use of best practices. It can also give management more insight in making informed decisions through a better understanding of the models capabilities and limitations.To a newcomer, the abstractions presented in NASA-STD-7009 and the sheer volume of information that must be absorbed can be overwhelming. This talk is aimed at describing the credibility assessment, which is the heart of the standard, in plain terms. It will outline how to develop a credibility assessment under the standard. It will also show how to quickly interpret the graphs and tables that result from the assessment and how to drill down from the top-level view to the foundation of the assessment. Finally, it will highlight some of the resources that are available for further study.

numerical analysis↗

Pretest Computational Assessment of Boundary Layer Transition in the NASA Juncture Flow Model with an NACA 0015-Based Wing

The first two phases of the NASA Juncture Flow experiment were carried out on a DLR-F6 swept-wing model and were designed to provide “CFD validation-quality” data toward the assessment and improvement of existing CFD turbulence models in predicting onset and extent of three-dimensional separated flow near the wing-juncture trailing-edge region. The next phase of experiments will involve an NACA 0015-based swept wing, as prior risk reduction experiments had indicated that this wing shape resulted in reduced separation near the juncture region than the DLR-F6 wing, thus providing a better option to evaluate the ability of CFD models to predict incipient turbulent separation. The NACA 0015 measurements will also include IR thermography to infer the variation of transition front with respect to an increasing angle of attack. The primary objective of this work is to computationally make a preliminary assessment of the transition front on both surfaces of the NACA 0015 wing at a crank-chord-based Reynolds number of 2.4 x 106 for four different angles of attack, (0°, 2.5°, 5°, and 7.5°) and to determine the dominant mechanisms responsible for transition. This assessment includes both RANS-based transition models from NASA’s OVERFLOW 2.3b flow solver and linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) stability analysis based on the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis code, LASTRAC. Linear PSE results indicate that the upper surface of the wing is dominated by Tollmien- Schlichting (TS) instabilities, and that the laminar flow region shrinks from about 50% chord to a very small region just downstream of the attachment line as the angle of attack is increased from 0° to 7.5°. Consequently, the transition fronts predicted by the Spalart- Allmaras-based amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model (which accounts for the TS instabilities alone) and the Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003)- based Langtry-Menter transition model with ability to account for both TS and crossflow effects (LM2015) compare well with those predicted using linear PSE. On the lower surface of the wing, stationary crossflow (CF) instabilities begin to appear on the inboard portion of the wing in addition to the TS-instabilities for the larger angles of attack (5° and 7.5°), further reducing the laminar flow extent within the inboard region. The LM2015 model that accounts for CF effects is able to replicate this trend but appears to predict a slightly earlier transition. The outcome of this effort will inform the experiment and, when the actual experimental data become available, provide further opportunity to assess and improve the various transition models.

CFD modeling↗

Pretest Computational Assessment of Boundary Layer Transition in the NASA Juncture Flow Model with an NACA 0015-Based Wing

The first two phases of the NASA Juncture Flow experiment were carried out on a DLR-F6 swept-wing model and were designed to provide “CFD validation-quality” data toward the assessment and improvement of existing CFD turbulence models in predicting onset and extent of three-dimensional separated flow near the wing-juncture trailing-edge region. The next phase of experiments will involve an NACA 0015-based swept wing, as prior risk reduction experiments had indicated that this wing shape resulted in reduced separation near the juncture region than the DLR-F6 wing, thus providing a better option to evaluate the ability of CFD models to predict incipient turbulent separation. The NACA 0015 measurements will also include IR thermography to infer the variation of transition front with respect to an increasing angle of attack. The primary objective of this work is to computationally make a preliminary assessment of the transition front on both surfaces of the NACA 0015 wing at a crank-chord-based Reynolds number of 2.4 x 106 for four different angles of attack, (0°, 2.5°, 5°, and 7.5°) and to determine the dominant mechanisms responsible for transition. This assessment includes both RANS-based transition models from NASA’s OVERFLOW 2.3b flow solver and linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) stability analysis based on the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis code, LASTRAC. Linear PSE results indicate that the upper surface of the wing is dominated by Tollmien- Schlichting (TS) instabilities, and that the laminar flow region shrinks from about 50% chord to a very small region just downstream of the attachment line as the angle of attack is increased from 0° to 7.5°. Consequently, the transition fronts predicted by the Spalart- Allmaras-based amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model (which accounts for the TS instabilities alone) and the Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003)- based Langtry-Menter transition model with ability to account for both TS and crossflow effects (LM2015) compare well with those predicted using linear PSE. On the lower surface of the wing, stationary crossflow (CF) instabilities begin to appear on the inboard portion of the wing in addition to the TS-instabilities for the larger angles of attack (5° and 7.5°), further reducing the laminar flow extent within the inboard region. The LM2015 model that accounts for CF effects is able to replicate this trend but appears to predict a slightly earlier transition. The outcome of this effort will inform the experiment and, when the actual experimental data become available, provide further opportunity to assess and improve the various transition models.

CFD modeling↗

Three-dimensional computations of transverse hydrogen jet combustion in a supersonic airstream

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code is being developed to compute the mixing and combustion of hydrogen fuel in the turbulent flow fields of supersonic combustion ramjets (scramjet). The code solves the three-dimensional Reynolds time-averaged complete Navier-Stokes equations including transport equations for a four species, two reaction, global finite rate chemistry model. The code was applied to the case of transverse injection of hydrogen from a sonic circular orifice into a supersonic airstream. The equations were numerically integrated using MacCormack's explicit method, and the algebraic eddy viscosity model of Baldwin-Lomax was used to model the turbulence. In the species transport and energy equations, diffusion coefficients based on Fick's Law and an assumption of unit Lewis number were applied. Computed features of the three-dimensional flow field are depicted by static pressure, static temperature, mass fraction of species, and velocity vectors. For engineering interest, mixing and combustion parameters were examined to assess the effect of injector diameter, injected fuel pressure, fuel-air ratio, and spacing of fuel injectors. The objective of the present paper is to demonstrate the capability of the present three-dimensional spatially elliptic, CFD code for turbulent, reacting flow. Application of the code to specific supersonic combustion configurations is planned.

Uenishi, K.↗

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of MOOSE-Based Tools for Calculating Radial Core Expansion

Radial core expansion in liquid-metal cooled fast reactor systems is a well-known phenomenon that produces strong reactivity feedback effects. An inherently safe reactor design takes advantage of negative reactivity feedback in accident scenarios by utilizing a core restraint system which produces a bowed shape that allows for radial expansion of the fuel regions. Detailed modeling and simulation of core radial expansion itself as well as subsequent reactivity feedback is a challenging task involving contact of many fuel assembly elements and physics feedback from neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and thermal mechanical response. A variety of physics codes have been developed to model aspects of radial core expansion but in general invoke geometrical or physics approximations. No code system currently exists which tightly and robustly couples these physics with enough detail to fully resolve the complex core radial expansion reactivity feedback effects. The future availability of such a code system is of vital importance to fully understanding the reactivity feedback effects that occur due to radial expansion, and consequently to optimizing the design of the core restraint system. A high-fidelity code will also be used to benchmark existing lower fidelity, faster running models to understand their benefits, limitations, and range of applications. A code development path using MOOSE-based tools is proposed in order to leverage the detailed geometry capabilities and natural tight coupling and robustness of MOOSE-based applications for modeling this complex phenomena. While simulation of the full phenomenon involves several physics, an assessment has been initiated on the capabilities and readiness of the currently available Tensor Mechanics module within MOOSE for calculation of the structural mechanical responses which occur within the reactor core. This report focuses on modeling the force-deformation response which mimics the physics of a duct contact deformation, as well as differential thermal expansion which produces a thermal bowed shaped for the fuel assemblies in a core. Simple examples were initially performed such as simple supported beam bending under load. The complexity of examples was progressively increased to better mimic the duct behavior by including a differential thermal example and inclusion of hexagonal cross-sections in the geometry. Further assessment of the structural mechanical response simulation capability is still required for modeling duct contact interactions and irradiation creep and swelling. Companion thermal hydraulic and neutronics assessments will also be required; these activities are planned for future years. Finally, integration of the multiple physics components through MOOSE is required to predict the core radial expansion and subsequent feedback effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Test-Based Calibration of Safety Factors for Capacity Models

In this paper, a simple procedure to calibrate the safety factor of capacity models is presented. The calibration can be carried out based on any available database of experimental tests, even of limited size. The procedure aims to assess the model capability of predicting the test results and to calibrate the safety factor so that the capacity equation meets the target reliability level required by the code or sought by the calibrator. After predicting each test of the database with the capacity equation under consideration, the test-prediction pairs are checked for the property of linearity, and the relative error for the properties of homoscedasticity and normality. Once these properties are fulfilled—which may require a nonlinear transformation of the test values and/or the predictions—the closed-form equation proposed in this paper is employed to compute a target design value. The model safety factor is finally obtained by comparing such target design value with the design value obtained from the code. The paper also proposes two approximate analytical equations to compute the tolerance factor, used to attain any given fractile, as a function of the (even small) number of tests, with any assigned confidence level. A fundamental outcome of the procedure is that it yields an objective indicator of the model accuracy, measured by the standard deviation of its error, which may be regarded as a parameter useful for selecting the most reliable model among different competing ones. In the long run, the application of the proposed procedure will allow achieving a uniform reliability level throughout all capacity models used in codes and guidelines. A further advantage is that the partial safety factors so derived can be straightforwardly updated when more experiments become available. Finally, as an example, the proposed procedure is herein applied to the ACI 318 shear design capacity equation for concrete members unreinforced in shear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Laser wavelength dependence of particle acceleration mechanisms in high intensity laser–solid density plasma interactions

We investigate the generation of relativistic electrons and the subsequent ion acceleration due to target-normal sheath acceleration when ultra-intense (⁠ I > 10 18 W/cm 2 ⁠) short pulse (⁠ τ L < 10ps⁠) lasers are incident onto solid density targets as laser wavelength is varied. Scaling laws for the hot electron temperature, T hot ⁠, and the maximum ion energy, E max ⁠, are recast as a function of laser wavelength. These predictions are compared to results from particle-in-cell computer simulations in a variety of geometries, including cases where realistic plasma density profiles as determined by a radiation hydrodynamics code are used. It is found that the wavelength dependence observed in simulation is less pronounced than what is predicted from the well-established scaling laws. An assessment of how switching to longer laser wavelengths, specifically 2 μm Tm:YLF technology, would impact current high energy density science applications and diagnostics is made.

Electromagnetism↗

Assessment of the Lagrange Discrete Ordinates Equations for Three-Dimensional Neutron Transport

The Lagrange Discrete Ordinates (LDO) equations, developed by Ahrens as an alternative to the traditional discrete ordinates formulation, have been implemented in Denovo, a threedimensional radiation transport code developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The LDO equations retain the formal structure of the classical discrete ordinates equations but treat particle scattering in a different way. Solutions of the LDO equations have an interpolatory structure such that the angular flux can be naturally evaluated at directions other than the discrete ordinates used in arriving at the solutions, and the ordinates themselves may be chosen in a strategic way for the problem under consideration. Of particular interest is that the LDO equations have been shown to mitigate ray effects at increased angular resolutions. In this paper we present scalar flux solutions of the LDO equations for a small number of test cases of interest and compare the results against flux solutions generated using standard quadrature types. The LDO equations’ flux solutions were found to be comparable to those resultant from the standard quadrature types in value; results from the LDO equations were also found to be commensurate with those of standard quadrature types when comparing the flux solutions in the context of the experimental benchmark test case examined.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Challenges in Rotor Aerodynamic Modeling for Non-Uniform Inflow Conditions

Within an international collaboration framework, the accuracy of rotor aerodynamic models used for design load calculations of wind turbines is being assessed. Where the use of high-fidelity computation fluid dynamics (CFD) and mid-fidelity free-vortex wake (FVW) models has become commonplace within the wind energy community, these still fail to meet the requirements in terms of execution time and computational cost needed for design load calculations. The fast but engineering fidelity blade-element/momentum (BEM) method can therefore still be considered the industry workhorse for design load simulations. At the same time, upscaling of wind turbine rotors makes inflow non-uniformities (e.g. shear, veer, turbulence) more important. The objective of this work is to assess model accuracy in non-uniform inflow conditions, which violate several BEM assumptions. Thereto a comparison in turbulent inflow has been executed including a wide variety of codes, focusing on the DanAero field measurements, where a 2.3-MW turbine was equipped with, among other sensors, a pressure measurement apparatus. The results indicate that, although average load patterns are in good agreement, this does not hold for the unsteady loads that drive fatigue damage and aero-elastic stability. A simplified comparison round in vertical shear was initiated to investigate the observed differences in a more controlled manner. A consistent offset in load amplitude was observed between CFD and free-vortex codes on the one hand and BEM-type codes on the other hand. To shed more light on the observations, dedicated efforts are ongoing to pinpoint the cause for these differences, in the end leading to guidelines for an improved BEM implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Algorithm 1049: The Delaunay Density Diagnostic

Accurate approximation of a real-valued function depends on two aspects of the available data: the density of inputs within the domain of interest and the variation of the outputs over that domain. There are few methods for assessing whether the density of inputs is sufficient to identify the relevant variations in outputs—i.e., the “geometric scale” of the function—despite the fact that sampling density is closely tied to the success or failure of an approximation method. In this article, we introduce a general purpose, computational approach to detecting the geometric scale of real-valued functions over a fixed domain using a deterministic interpolation technique from computational geometry. The algorithm is intended to work on scalar data in moderate dimensions (2–10). Our algorithm is based on the observation that a sequence of piecewise linear interpolants will converge to a continuous function at a quadratic rate (in L 2 norm) if and only if the data are sampled densely enough to distinguish the feature from noise (assuming sufficiently regular sampling). We present numerical experiments demonstrating how our method can identify feature scale, estimate uncertainty in feature scale, and assess the sampling density for fixed (i.e., static) datasets of input–output pairs. Finally, we include analytical results in support of our numerical findings and have released lightweight code that can be adapted for use in a variety of data science settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BISON Fuel Performance Analysis of FeCrAl cladding with updated properties

In order to improve the accident tolerance of light water reactor (LWR) fuel, alternative cladding materials have been proposed to replace zirconium (Zr)-based alloys. Of these materials, there is a particular focus on iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys due to much slower oxidation kinetics in high-temperature steam than Zr-alloys. This should decrease the energy release due to oxidation and allow the cladding to remain integral longer in the presence of high temperature steam, making accident mitigation more likely. As a continuation of the development for these alloys, suitability for normal operation must also be demonstrated. This research is focused on modeling the integral thermo-mechanical performance of FeCrAl-cladded fuel during normal reactor operation. Preliminary analysis has been performed to assess FeCrAl alloys (namely Alkrothal 720 and APMT) as a suitable fuel cladding replacement for Zr-alloys, using the MOOSE-based, finite-element fuel performance code BISON and the best available thermal-mechanical and irradiation-induced constitutive properties. These simulations identify the effects of the mechanical-stress and irradiation response of FeCrAl, and provide a comparison with Zr-alloys. In comparing these clad materials, fuel rods have been simulated for normal reactor operation and simple steady-state operation. Normal reactor operating conditions target the cladding performance over the rod lifetime (~4 cycles) for the highest-power rod in the highest-power fuel assembly under reactor power maneuvering. The power histories and axial temperature profiles input into BISON were generated from a neutronics study on full-core reactivity equivalence for FeCrAl using the 3D full core simulator NESTLE. Evolution of the FeCrAl cladding behavior over time is evaluated by using steady-state operating conditions such as a simple axial power profile, a constant cladding surface temperature, and a constant fuel power history. The fuel rod designs and operating conditions used are based off the Peach Bottom BWR and design consideration was given to minimize the neutronic penalty of the FeCrAl cladding by changing fuel enrichment and cladding thickness. As this study progressed, systematic parametric analysis of the fuel and cladding creep responses were also performed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Bison Modeling of SiC/SiC Cladding Including Fuel-Pellet Interaction

SiC/SiC composites are considered leading candidates for accident tolerant fuel cladding in light water reactors. However, when SiC-based materials are exposed to neutron irradiation, they experience significant changes in dimensions and physical properties. In the extreme nuclear reactor environment, SiC-based fuel cladding will see neutron damage, significant heat flux, as well as a corrosive environment. In this report, we evaluate the effect of non-uniform changes in the dimensions caused by neutron irradiation with variable temperatures, along with the closing of the fuel – clad gap, on the stress development in the clad over the course of time. To ensure reliable and safe operation of accident tolerant fuel cladding concepts such as SiC-based materials, it is important to assess its thermo-mechanical performance under in-reactor conditions of irradiation and realistic temperature distributions. In this work, we have used the BISON fuel performance modeling code to perform the thermo-mechanical analysis of SiC/SiC cladding. A constitutive model is constructed and solved numerically to predict the stress distribution and variation in the cladding under normal operating conditions. The dependence of dimensions and physical properties variation with irradiation and temperature has been incorporated. These initial results from the analyses provides insights about the stress distribution and variation with time in the cladding as well as the interaction of fuel pellet with the cladding under different conditions of initial fuel pellet-cladding gap and steady state power levels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Initial Assessment of Erosion/Abrasion Issues Related to Gas-Cooled Reactors

The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is investigating the graphite erosion concern detailed in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section III, Division 5, “High Temperature Reactors.” The special consideration in Subsection HH, Subpart A (HHA)-3143, “Abrasion and Erosion,” was described in ASME BPVC Section III, Division 5, which was accepted with exception/limitation in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Technical Review. This report describes ORNL’s FY 2023 comprehensive research of erosion-related reports and publications to further study the proposed gas flow velocity limitation to the erosion effect in graphite structure in the ASME BPVC. This report also proposes that a nondimensional fluid parameter, the Reynolds number, might be a better alternative than gas flow velocity for comparing erosion effects caused by carbonaceous dust in fast-flowing helium coolant in gas-cooled reactors (GCRs).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Heavy-Duty Electric Fleet Depot Charging Load Profiles & Substation Load Integration Assessment Results

This data set includes the 24-hour fleet depot charging load profiles (15-min. average demand) and substation load integration assessment results produced for the study, "Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification and the Impacts of Depot Charging on Electricity Distribution Systems", published in 2021 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00855-0). The code developed to generate these load profiles is publicly available at https://github.com/NREL/hdev-depot-charging-2021. Please cite as: Borlaug, B., Muratori, M., Gilleran, M., Woody, D., Muston, W., Canada, T., Ingram, A., Gresham, H., and McQueen, C., (2021). "Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification and the Impacts of Depot Charging on Electricity Distribution Systems". https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00855-0.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of discretization schemes to reduce numerical diffusion in the calculation of complex flows

Comprehensive criteria for evaluating finite-difference schemes to reduce numerical diffusion in the solution of the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations have been established in this study. Several candidate schemes have been examined, based on these criteria. Taylor series analyses, model problem studies and examination of the difference equations have been used to assess the schemes. Two schemes, which showed the most promise, and satisfied a majority of the criteria, are recommended for incorporation into two dimensional and three dimensional computer codes for further evaluation.

Syed, S. A.↗

General Rotorcraft Aeromechanical Stability Program (GRASP) version 1.03: User's manual

The Rotorcraft Dynamics Division, Aeroflightdynamics Directorate, U.S. Army Aviation Research and Technology Activity has developed the General Rotorcraft Aeromechanical Stability Program (GRASP) to perform calculations that will assess the stability of rotorcraft in hovering flight and ground contact conditions. The program is designed to be state-of-the-art, hybrid, finite-element/multibody code that can be applied to all existing and future helicopter configurations. While GRASP was specifically designed to solve rotorcraft stability problems, its innovative structure and formulation allow for application to a wide range of structures. This manual describes the preparation of the input file required by Version 1.03 of GRASP, the procedures used to invoke GRASP on the NASA Ames Research Center CRAY X-MP 48 computer, and the interpretation of the output produced by GRASP. The parameters used by the input file are defined, and summaries of the input file and the job control language are included.

Hopkins, A. Stewart↗