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DOE OSTI2024

The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst): A multicomponent geothermometry tool

The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst) is a multicomponent geothermometry tool for estimating reservoir geochemical parameters including reservoir temperature, CO 2 fugacity, mass of water lost or gained, and a reaction factor. It estimates these parameters and their associated uncertainties by minimizing an objective function that is the weighted sum of squares of the saturation indices of a user-selected set of minerals believed to be equilibrated with the reservoir fluid. RTEst accomplishes these estimates by combining the geochemical modeling capabilities of The Geochemist’s Workbench® with the optimization/parameter estimation resources of PEST®. An included interface aids the user in selecting plausible mineral phases to comprise the objective function and calculates their weighting factors. The working principles of RTEst are described and its efficacy is illustrated by presenting results of its application to various geothermal fields with known conditions. These examples show RTEst can account for the alteration of ascending reservoir fluid by mineral (calcite) re-equilibration with changes in temperature, reconstruct waters with CO 2 loss, correct for the deficit of water and other volatiles (CO 2,gas , H 2 S gas ) from boiling, and determine the amount of mixing of thermal and non-thermal waters. RTEst can use data with basis species below detection limit, missing, or unreliable either by assuming equilibrium with a controlling mineral (fixed-analyte method) or by treating the analyte concentration as an optimization parameter. The inverse of variance weighting method included in RTEst provides more representative results than either the normalization or unit weighting methods. Finally, the ability of RTEst to calculate reservoir temperatures, gas fugacity, and mixing fractions demonstrates its usefulness as a tool for evaluating geothermal systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining accuracy of the pairwise velocities in N -body simulations using scale-free models

We present a continuation of an analysis that aims to quantify resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 4096 3 ) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus. Here, we focus on radial pairwise velocities of the matter field, both by direct estimation and through the cumulative two-point correlation function (using the pair conservation equation). We find that convergence at the 1 per cent level of the mean relative pairwise velocity can be demonstrated over a range of scales, evolving from a few times the grid spacing at early times to slightly below this scale at late times. We show the analysis of two different box sizes as well as from averaging results from the smaller boxes, and compare the power of the two aforementioned estimators in constraining accuracy at each scale. Down to scales of the order of the smoothing parameter, convergence is obtained at ∼5 per cent precision, and shows a behaviour indicating asymptotic stable clustering. In conclusion, we also infer for LCDM simulations conservative estimates on the evolution of the lower cut-off to resolution (at 1 and 5 per cent precision) as a function of redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Oxygen production by electrolysis of molten lunar regolith

The goal of this study was threefold. First, the theoretical energy requirements of the process were to be defined. This includes studies of the relevant oxidation-reduction reactions in the melt, their kinetics and energies of reaction, and experimental determination of production efficiencies and melt resistivities as functions of melt composition and applied potential. Second, the product(s) of silicate electrolysis were to be characterized. This includes: (1) evaluating the phase relationships in the systems SiO2-TiO2-Al2O3-MgO-FeO-CaO and Fe-Si; (2) estimating the compositions of the metal products as a function of applied potential and feedstock composition based on phase equilibria in the Fe-Si system and free energy values for SiO2 and FeO reported in the literature; (3) definition of compositions of products in actual experiments; and (4) definition of the form the product takes (whether phases separate or remain fixed, whether crystals settle or float in the remaining melt, and how large crystals form). Third, materials for these highly corrosive high-temperature silicate melts were to be identified. This includes identifing materials that may be either inert or thermodynamically stable in these melts, and experimental testing of the materials to confirm that they do not deteriorate. The results are discussed within this framework.

Haskin, Larry A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

ON THE ROTATION SPEED OF THE MILKY WAY DETERMINED FROM H i EMISSION

The circular rotation speed of the Milky Way at the solar radius, Θ{sub 0}, has been estimated to be 220 km s{sup −1} by fitting the maximum velocity of H i emission as a function of Galactic longitude. This result is in tension with a recent estimate of Θ{sub 0} = 240 km s{sup −1}, based on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) parallaxes and proper motions from the BeSSeL and VERA surveys for large numbers of high-mass star-forming regions across the Milky Way. We find that the rotation curve best fitted to the VLBI data is slightly curved, and that this curvature results in a biased estimate of Θ{sub 0} from the H i data when a flat rotation curve is assumed. This relieves the tension between the methods and favors Θ{sub 0} = 240 km s{sup −1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2001

(Almost) Featureless Stereo: Calibration and Dense 3D Reconstruction Using Whole Image Operations

The conventional approach to shape from stereo is via feature extraction and correspondences. This results in estimates of the camera parameters and a typically spare estimate of the surface. Given a set of calibrated images, a dense surface reconstruction is possible by minimizing the error between the observed image and the image rendered from the estimated surface with respect to the surface model parameters. Given an uncalibrated image and an estimated surface, the camera parameters can be estimated by minimizing the error between the observed and rendered images a function of the camera parameters. We use a very small dense set of matched features to provide camera parameter estimates for the initial dense surface estimate. We then re-estimate the camera parameters as described above, and then re-estimate the surface. This process is iterated. Whilst it can not be proven to converge, we have found that around three iterations results in excellent surface and camera parameters estimates.

Smelyanskiy, V. N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Frequency Domain Quasi Maximum Likelihood Identification of Low Order Aeroservoelastic Models from Flight-Test Data

In this paper a quasi maximum likelihood method for estimating a low order model of a flexible vehicle has been developed and demonstrated. The quasi maximum likelihood method uses a large number of sensors to estimate the parameters and covariance in a method consistent with the maximum likelihood filter-error method. The cost function has been defined in a frequency domain to improve computational efficiency and to enable estimation of an unstable plant. The method has been demonstrated using flight data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed flex wing tests, which include unstable flutter modes. The method was able to effectively estimate the frequency and damping of the dynamics of the aircraft and generate a transfer function that is useful for control system evaluations.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Nighttime Biogenic SOA Formation in a Polluted Residual Layer

Abstract Organic nitrates formed from nighttime reaction between anthropogenic nitrate radicals (NO3) and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are potentially an important but highly uncertain source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Here we report on the enhanced nighttime biogenic SOA formation observed in a polluted residual layer over Sacramento, California, the morning of 15 June 2010 during the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES). Trajectory analysis showed that the residual layer air, containing trace amounts of isoprene and monoterpenes left over after nighttime oxidation, was influenced by the San Francisco Bay Area emissions the previous evening. The residual layer aerosol was also enriched in nitrate, with about 64% of it estimated to be in the form of organic nitrates. The nitrate:organic mass ratio of the SOA was about 0.47±0.044, which corresponds to the range typically found in isoprene mononitrates. Assuming the SOA was composed of organic mononitrates, its nominal molecular weight was estimated at 186±11 g mol-1, consistent with the highly functionalized isoprene hydroxynitrates that have been observed in the particle phase in the southeast United States. Overall, our findings show that the efficiency of nighttime biogenic SOA formation, expressed as the change in organic aerosol mass relative to carbon monoxide (?OA/?CO), was about 100 µg m-3 ppmv, which falls in the range 77-157 µg m-3 ppmv previously estimated for enhanced daytime SOA formation from mixed anthropogenic and biogenic emissions during CARES.

Zaveri, Rahul A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of the Corcos Model for the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

During atmospheric ascent launch vehicles (LVs) experience large dynamic loads at transonic conditions where aerodynamic buffet is most critical. To estimate buffet loads, coupled loads analyses typically utilize suitable forcing functions, called buffet forcing functions (BFFs). One of the key buffet environment contributors is the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) on the LV outer skin. The TBL-induced fluctuating pressures can be estimated using the widely-accepted Corcos model. In the context of transonic buffet, the performance of this model is not well established, partly because of lack of data. To fill this gap, NASA recently acquired extremely high-spatial-density data for the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle, using the unsteady pressure sensitive paint (uPSP) optical measurement technique. A methodology is developed for validation of the Corcos model using these unique data, with a focus on the LV-design application. The model hypotheses are verified and the model parameters are empirically tuned. For selected panels on the vehicle, BFF coherence factors are derived based on the Corcos model and the associated panel BFFs are compared to uPSP data. It is shown that the modeled BFFs are in agreement with direct integration of uPSP data, except for regions where pressure fluctuations are spatially nonuniform. In those regions, the Corcos-based BFFs exhibit inherent limitations of BFF estimation methods that rely on discrete pressure measurements.

buffet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of the Corcos Model for the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

buffet↗

NASA NTRS2023

Space Launch System Unsteady Forces Developed from Unsteady-Pressure-Sensitive-Paint–Based Corcos Model Parameters

During atmospheric ascent, launch vehicles (LVs) experience large dynamic loads at transonic conditions where aerodynamic buffet is most critical. To estimate buffet loads, coupled loads analyses typically utilize suitable forcing functions, called buffet forcing functions (BFFs). One of the key buffet environment contributors is the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) on the LV outer skin. The TBL-induced fluctuating pressures can be estimated using the widely-accepted Corcos model. In the context of transonic buffet, the performance of this model is not well established, partly because of lack of data. To fill this gap, NASA recently acquired extremely high-spatial-density data for the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle, using the unsteady pressure sensitive paint (uPSP) optical measurement technique. A methodology is developed for validation of the Corcos model using these unique data, with a focus on the LV-design application. The model hypotheses are verified and the model parameters are empirically tuned. For selected panels on the vehicle, BFF coherence factors are derived based on the Corcos model and the associated panel BFFs are compared to uPSP data. It is shown that the modeled BFFs are in agreement with direct integration of uPSP data, except for regions where pressure fluctuations are spatially nonuniform. In those regions, the Corcos-based BFFs exhibit inherent limitations of BFF estimation methods that rely on discrete pressure measurements.

buffet↗

DOE OSTI2026

From molecular to macroscopic: predicting liquid–liquid phase equilibria and small-angle scattering of mixtures of organic liquids from atomistic simulation using Kirkwood–Buff theory

Macroscopic phase equilibria between solutions define the functionality of many biological and industrial processes, yet they are challenging to predict due to the inherent complexity of liquids containing large molecules. This work introduces an approach for the purely predictive calculation of such phase equilibria in temperature-composition space from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at one temperature in the single-phase region. We use an approach developed previously to obtain the entropic and enthalpic contributions to the free energy of mixing from the atomic-scale information given by MD simulations via Kirkwood–Buff theory. This allows us to accurately estimate the free energy of mixing as a function of temperature, and thus obtain liquid–liquid phase equilibria, including liquid–liquid critical points, associated binodal and spinodal lines, and composition fluctuations across a region of temperature and composition. Results for binary malonamide–alkane systems are validated by comparison to a direct experimental probe of the fluctuations: the small angle X-ray scattering intensity near zero wavenumber. The MDKB → Phase method demonstrated here provides a significant improvement in predicting liquid–liquid equilibria and free energy as a function of temperature for our systems of interest compared to conventional thermodynamic models. The accurate performance of this purely predictive approach lies in its preservation of atomistic details when determining thermodynamic properties. Furthermore, its inherent extensibility to multi-component systems will likely make the MDKB → Phase approach a valuable general tool for connecting molecular interactions to macroscopic phase equilibria and for the computational screening of materials for targeted thermodynamic behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in urban NO 2 concentrations and associated paediatric asthma incidence: estimates from global datasets

Combustion-related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with paediatric asthma incidence. We aimed to estimate global surface NO 2 concentrations consistent with the Global Burden of Disease study for 1990-2019 at a 1 km resolution, and the concentrations and attributable paediatric asthma incidence trends in 13 189 cities from 2000 to 2019. We scaled an existing annual average NO 2 concentration dataset for 2010-12 from a land use regression model (based on 5220 NO 2 monitors in 58 countries and land use variables) to other years using NO 2 column densities from satellite and reanalysis datasets. We applied these concentrations in an epidemiologically derived concentration-response function with population and baseline asthma rates to estimate NO 2 -attributable paediatric asthma incidence. We estimated that 1.85 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0.93-2.80 million) new paediatric asthma cases were attributable to NO 2 globally in 2019, two thirds of which occurred in urban areas (1.22 million cases; 95% UI 0.60-1.8 million). The proportion of paediatric asthma incidence that is attributable to NO 2 in urban areas declined from 19.8% (1.22 million attributable cases of 6.14 million total cases) in 2000 to 16.0% (1.24 million attributable cases of 7.73 million total cases) in 2019. Urban attributable fractions dropped in high-income countries (-41%), Latin America and the Caribbean (-16%), central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia (-13%), and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (-6%), and rose in south Asia (+23%), sub-Saharan Africa (+11%), and north Africa and the Middle East (+5%). The contribution of NO 2 concentrations, paediatric population size, and asthma incidence rates to the change in NO 2 -attributable paediatric asthma incidence differed regionally. Despite improvements in some regions, combustion-related NO 2 pollution continues to be an important contributor to paediatric asthma incidence globally, particularly in cities. Mitigating air pollution should be a crucial element of public health strategies for children.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Spectral absorption coefficients of argon and silicon and spectral reflectivity of aluminum

A theoretical investigation was conducted to estimate the spectral properties of argon as a function of pressure, temperature, and wave number. The spectral characteristics of the argon buffer gas exert a strong influence on radiative energy transfer in the in-reactor test configuration of the nuclear light bulb engine. An existing computer program was modified and used to calculate the spectral absorption coefficients of argon at total pressures of 50, 100, 250, 500, 750 and 1000 atm in the temperature interval between 1000 and 30,000 K. At each pressure and temperature, spectral properties were calculated for forty-seven wave numbers in the interval between 1000 and 1,000,000 cm/1. Estimates of the spectral absorption coefficients of silicon were made as part of an evaluation of silicon vapor as a possible buffer-gas seeding agent for the reference nuclear light bulb engine. Existing cross-section data were used to calculate the spectral characteristics of silicon at twenty-four temperatures in the interval between 2000 and 10,000 K.

Krascella, N. L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Terrestrial water storage and polar motion

This study compares observed polar motion for the period 1900-1985 with meteorologic and hydrologic data for the world over the same period, in an effort to determine whether water storage, in combination with air mass redistribution, can account for the observed variance of polar motion. Monthly time series of estimated continental water storage and air mass excitation functions have been compared at the annual frequency and at the Chandler frequency using power, coherence, multiple coherence, and phase spectra. There is a discrepancy in accounting for more than half the variance of polar motion across a broad range of frequencies. Similar results have been obtained in recent studies of polar motion at frequencies above 1 cycle per year using modem space geodetic determinations of polar motion. The persistence of the discrepancey at the annual frequency and its broadband nature suggest a source of polar motion excitation due to air and water motion which has either not been correctly estimated or not yet identified.

Kuehne, John↗

NASA NTRS1975

Electromagnetic reflection from multi-layered snow models

The remote sensing of snow-pack characteristics with surface installations or an airborne system could have important applications in water-resource management and flood prediction. To derive some insight into such applications, the electromagnetic response of multilayered snow models is analyzed in this paper. Normally incident plane waves at frequencies ranging from 1 MHz to 10 GHz are assumed, and amplitude reflection coefficients are calculated for models having various snow-layer combinations, including ice layers. Layers are defined by thickness, permittivity, and conductivity; the electrical parameters are constant or prescribed functions of frequency. To illustrate the effect of various layering combinations, results are given in the form of curves of amplitude reflection coefficients versus frequency for a variety of models. Under simplifying assumptions, the snow thickness and effective dielectric constant can be estimated from the variations of reflection coefficient as a function of frequency.

Linlor, W. I.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extending the SAGA Survey (xSAGA). I. Satellite Radial Profiles as a Function of Host-galaxy Properties

We present "Extending the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey" (xSAGA), a method for identifying low-z galaxies on the basis of optical imaging and results on the spatial distributions of xSAGA satellites around host galaxies. Using spectroscopic redshift catalogs from the SAGA Survey as a training data set, we have optimized a convolutional neural network (CNN) to identify z < 0.03 galaxies from more-distant objects using image cutouts from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. From the sample of >100,000 CNN-selected low-z galaxies, we identify >20,000 probable satellites located between 36–300 projected kpc from NASA-Sloan Atlas central galaxies in the stellar-mass range $9.5\lt \mathrm{log}({M}_{\star }/{M}_{\odot })\lt 11$. We characterize the incompleteness and contamination for CNN-selected samples and apply corrections in order to estimate the true number of satellites as a function of projected radial distance from their hosts. Satellite richness depends strongly on host stellar mass, such that more-massive host galaxies have more satellites, and on host morphology, such that elliptical hosts have more satellites than disky hosts with comparable stellar masses. We also find a strong inverse correlation between satellite richness and the magnitude gap between a host and its brightest satellite. The normalized satellite radial distribution between 36–300 kpc does not depend on host stellar mass, morphology, or magnitude gap. The satellite abundances and radial distributions we measure are in reasonable agreement with predictions from hydrodynamic simulations. Our results deliver unprecedented statistical power for studying satellite galaxy populations and highlight the promise of using machine-learning for extending galaxy samples of wide-area surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗