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DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Temporal Coupling of Subsurface and Surface Soil CO 2 Fluxes: Insights From a Nonsteady State Model and Cross-Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Inferences about subsurface CO 2 fluxes often rely on surface soil respiration (R soil ) estimates because directly measuring subsurface microbial and root respiration (collectively, CO 2 production, S Total ), is difficult. To evaluate how well R soil serves as a proxy for S Total , we applied the nonsteady state DEconvolution of Temporally varying Ecosystem Carbon componenTs model (0.01-m vertical resolution), using 6-hourly data from a Wyoming grassland, in six simulations that cross three soil types (clay, sandy loam, and sandy) with two depth distributions of subsurface biota. We used cross-wavelet coherence analysis to examine temporal coherence (localized linear correlation) and offsets (lags) between S Total and R soil and fluxes and drivers (e.g., soil temperature and moisture). Cross-wavelet coherence revealed higher coherence between fluxes and drivers than linear regressions between concurrent variables. Soil texture and moisture exerted the strongest controls over coherence between CO 2 fluxes. Coherence between CO 2 fluxes in all soil types was strong at short (~1 day) and long periods (>8 days), but soil type controlled lags, and rainfall events decoupled the fluxes at periods of 1–8 days for several days in sandy soil, up to 1 week in sandy loam, and for a month or more in clay soil. Concentrating root and microbial biomass nearer the surface decreased lags in all soil types and increased coherence up to 10% in clay soil. The assumption of high temporal coherence between R soil and S Total is likely valid in dry, sandy soil, but may lead to underestimates of short-term STotal in semiarid grasslands with fine-grained and/or wet soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

MELCOR-TMAP: The integration of MELCOR for fusion and TMAP4 for fusion reactor systems safety analysis and tritium inventory tracking

The design of fusion reactors requires the prediction of radioactive tritium migration during normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Safety standards such as those from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require that fusion reactor designs limit the release of hazardous material to the environment. In addition to safety requirements, the rarity of tritium supplies for burning D-T fusion plasma requires tritium breeding blankets. Computational modeling of migration of tritium and various reaction products throughout the fusion reactor serves to create designs that fulfill these requirements. MELCOR-TMAP, owned and developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is an integrated system-level engineering code adapted for the analysis of fusion reactor systems. The history of the conception and evolution of the MELCOR-TMAP code, as well as its current capabilities, recent updates including a corrected composite material wall nodalization scheme, and plans for future development, are discussed here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Interactions between displacement cascade and dislocation and their influences on Peierls stress in Fe-20Cr-25Ni alloys

The interactions between dislocations and displacement cascades are investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. The primary knock-on atoms (PKAs) are placed at different distances to edge and screw dislocation lines. Specifically, an fcc Fe-20Cr-25Ni system is studied; the alloy is the based alloy for Alloy 709. The number of defects is calculated using Wigner-Seitz analysis in order to illustrate the effect of dislocations on cascades. The displacement cascades in systems containing dislocations tend to generate more total defects compared with bulk systems, but eventually lead to less surviving defects in the materials matrix due to interactions with dislocations. The changes in atomic structures of the dislocations after interacting with cascades are analyzed to understand how the primary damage affects dislocations. The displacement cascade potentially causes dislocation climb in edge dislocations and cross-slip in screw dislocations, which could serve as additional mechanisms contributing to the radiation-induced hardening (RIH) compared with conventional RIH models. To reveal this, Peierls stresses are calculated before and after cascades using molecular static simulations. This study provides critical information of how defect production and dislocations are correlated, especially when total dose is high, which needs to be taken into account in upper scale models, such as mean-field rate theory.

Lu, Zizhe↗

NASA NTRS1994

Venus O2 visible and IR nightglow: Implications for lower thermosphere dynamics and chemistry

The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model for the Venus thermosphere is modified to examine two observed night airglow features, both of which serve as sensitive tracers of the thermospheric circulation. New O2 nightglow data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) star tracker (O2 Herzberg II at 400-800 nm) and ground-based telescopes (O2 IR at 1.27 microns) yield additional model constraints for estimating Venus winds over 100-130 km. Atomic oxygen, produced by dayside CO2 photolysis peaking near 110 km, and transported to the nightside by the global wind system, is partially destroyed through three-body recombination, yielding the O2 Herzberg II visible nightglow. This emission is very sensitive to horizontal winds at altitudes between 100 and 130 km. Other trace species catalytic reactions also contribute to the production of the very strong nightside infrared (1.27 microns) emission. This paper examines the dynamical and chemical implications of these new data using the Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) as an analysis tool. Three-dimensional calculations are presented for both solar maximum and solar medium conditions, corresponding to early PVO (1979-1981) and PVO entry (mid-1992) time periods. Very distinct periods are identified in which zonal winds are alternately weak and strong in the Venus lower thermosphere. VTGCM sensitivity studies are conducted to assess the impacts of potential changes in thermospheric zonal and day-to-night winds, and eddy diffusion on the corresponding nightglow intensities. It appears that cyclostrophic balance extends above 80 km periodically, owing to a reversal of the upper mesosphere latitudinal temperature gradient, and thereby producing strong zonal winds and correspondingly modified O2 nightglow distributions that are observed.

Bougher, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation

As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities.

Kaiser, Mary K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Creation of an Fe 3 P Schreibersite Density Functional Tight Binding Model for Astrobiological Simulations

The mineral schreibersite, e.g., Fe 3 P, is commonly found in iron-rich meteorites and could have served as an abiotic phosphorus source for prebiotic chemistry. However, atomistic calculations of its degradation chemistry generally require quantum simulation approaches, which can be too computationally cumbersome to study sufficient time and length scales for this process. In this regard, we have created a computationally efficient semiempirical quantum density functional tight binding (DFTB) model for iron and phosphorus-containing materials by adopting an existing semiautomated workflow that represents many-body interactions by linear combinations of Chebyshev polynomials. Here, we have utilized a relatively small training set to optimize a DFTB model that is accurate for schreibersite physical and chemical properties, including its bulk properties, surface energies, and water absorption. We then show that our model shows strong transferability to several iron phosphide solids as well as multiple allotropes of iron metal. Our resulting DFTB parametrization will allow us to interrogate schreibersite aqueous decomposition at longer time and length scales than standard quantum approaches, providing for more detailed investigations of its role in prebiotic chemistry on early Earth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model of Axial Jet Mixing for Cryogenic Propellant Tank Pressure Control

The Fluid Dynamics Branch at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is preparing to support flight programs through analysis of a variety of cryogenic fluid management (CFM) applications. Many vehicles being considered for future manned missions to the moon and beyond use chemical or nuclear thermal propulsion systems that rely on cryogenic propellants. Storing cryogenic propellants for later use is a challenge, though. Many areas of active CFM research, testing, and design involve propellant conditioning to ensure propellant remains a usable liquid for propulsion. Multiple technologies may be used to achieve adequate conditioning including the subject of this paper, a jet-based mixer. Mixing serves to homogenize fluid temperatures and decrease ullage pressure. Development and validation of a modeling methodology for jet-based mixing was conducted to prepare for in-line design work.

Jacob M Brodnick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model of Axial Jet Mixing for Cryogenic Propellant Tank Pressure Control

Jacob M. Brodnick↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1

EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.

numerical simulation, embedded fractures and boreh↗

DOE OSTI2021

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite

Background: Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals. Objectives: The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different endpoints: LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labelling hazard categories, very toxic chemicals (LD50 =50 mg/kg), and non-toxic chemicals (LD50 >2000 mg/kg). Methods: An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches. Results: The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared to in vivo results. Discussion: CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for over 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the NTP’s Integrated Chemical Environment. The models are also implemented in a free, standalone open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble

Abstract The western United States is dependent on winter snowfall over its major mountain ranges, which gradually melts each year, serving as a natural reservoir for water resources. In a future warmer climate, much of this snowfall could be replaced by rain, making it more challenging to capture and store water. In this study, we utilize an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations forced by 14 global climate models (GCMs). These GCMs project wildly different futures, in terms of both temperature and precipitation change, producing significant uncertainty in snowfall projections. Here we exploit the robust statistics of the downscaled ensemble, and diagose the sensitivity of end-of-century snowfall loss across the region to both warming and regional wetting/drying in the driving GCM. The windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades are particularly sensitive to warming (losing ~ 15% annual snowfall per degree warming), with little influence of precipitation. By contrast, snowfall loss in the inter-mountain west is less sensitive to warming (~ 5% K −1 ), but is significantly offset/exacerbated by precipitation changes (~ 0.5% snow per 1% precipitation). Combining such sensitivities with the warming and regional precipitation signals in the full CMIP6 ensemble, we can fully quantify likely snowfall loss and its uncertainty at any location, for any emissions scenario. We find that the western U.S. as a whole will lose 34 ± 8% of its total volumetric snowfall by end-of-century under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, but 25 ± 6% and 17 ± 6% under the lower-emissions SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios.

Norris, Jesse (ORCID:0000000289883326)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Innovations in underground hydrogen storage with multiphysics simulations, optimization, and monitoring: A review

Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) is a promising solution for large-scale energy storage and a critical component in advancing low-carbon energy system. Ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS necessitates a comprehensive understanding of multiphysical interactions driven by cyclic pore fluid pressure fluctuations and coupled physicochemical processes. Here, this review examines the key geomechanical responses in UHS, including rock property variations under cyclic loading, fracture evolution and propagation, reservoir stress sensitivity, and fault stability. It also explores the impact of geochemical and microbial reactions on geomechanical characteristics. We provide an in-depth analysis of Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) coupled numerical simulations, highlighting their potential for future multi-scale modeling. Limitations of current machine learning (ML) approaches in addressing UHS challenges are highlighted, emphasizing the need for innovative ML-based methodologies. Operational strategies for hydrogen injection and production are reviewed, focusing on safety, efficiency, and economic viability. The necessity for multi-objective optimization (MOO) to balance storage efficiency, risk mitigation, and cost-effectiveness is also discussed. Current monitoring technologies are evaluated to ensure safe and efficient UHS operations. Finally, this review identifies critical knowledge gaps and underscores the importance of advancing geomechanical understanding under multiphysics-coupling. We highlight the need for ML-driven multiphysics theories, enhanced modeling techniques, and robust optimization strategies to improve UHS performance. This study serves as a comprehensive reference for future research and the large-scale implementation of UHS systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design Tool for Estimating Adsorbent Hydrogen Storage System Characteristics for Light-Duty Fuel Cell Vehicles

This work combines materials development with hydrogen storage technology advancements to address onboard hydrogen storage challenges in light-duty vehicle applications. These systems are comprised of the vehicle requirements design space, balance of plant requirements, storage system components, and materials engineering culminating in the development of an Adsorbent System Design Tool that serves as a preprocessor to the storage system and vehicle-level models created within the Hydrogen Storage Engineering Center of Excellence. Computational and experimental efforts were integrated to evaluate, design, analyze, and scale potential hydrogen storage systems and their supporting components against the Department of Energy 2020 and Ultimate Technical Targets for Hydrogen Storage Systems for Light Duty Vehicles. Ultimately, the Adsorbent System Design Tool was created to assist material developers in assessing initial design parameters that would be required to estimate the performance of the hydrogen storage system once integrated with the full fuel cell system.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2018

In-situ TEM study of the ion irradiation behavior of U 3 Si 2 and U 3 Si 5

We report that U 3 Si 2 and U 3 Si 5 are two important uranium silicide phases currently under extensive investigation as potential fuel forms or components for light water reactors (LWRs) to enhance accident tolerance. In this paper, their irradiation behaviors are studied by ion beam irradiations with various ion mass and energies, and their microstructure evolution is investigated by in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM). U 3 Si 2 can easily be amorphized by ion beam irradiations (by 1MeV Ar 2+ or Kr 2+ ) at room temperature with the critical amorphization dose less than 1 dpa. The critical amorphization temperatures of U 3 Si 2 irradiated by 1MeV Kr 2+ and 1MeV Ar 2+ ion are determined as 580±10K and 540±5K, respectively. In contrast, U 3 Si 5 remains crystalline up to 8 dpa at room temperature and is stable against ion irradiation-induced amorphization up to ~50 dpa by either 1MeV Kr 2+ or 150KeV Kr + at 623K. In conclusion, these results provide valuable experimental data to guide future irradiation experiments, support the relevant post irradiation examination, and serve as the experimental basis for the validation of advanced fuel performance models

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synergies between repositioning and charging strategies for shared autonomous electric vehicle fleets

The emergence of on-demand shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) service requires careful charging station planning and a joint charging and repositioning strategy to mitigate empty travel. This study couples charging and repositioning events as a means of improving service quality (rider wait times), reducing empty travel due to repositioning or charging, and improving fleet utilization (average daily trips per vehicle and charging queues). This synergy is explored for the Austin, Texas region using POLARIS, an agent-based model. On average, wait times were 39% lower, and average daily trips served per SAEV increased up to 6.4 (or 28%) compared to SAEV repositioning with heuristic charging. Coupling repositioning with charging decreased the fleet's percent empty travel on average by 1.6%, relative to the scenario treating them as independent events (which varies by charging station design). Sparser charging stations reduce investment costs, and operators can leverage this framework to keep traveler wait times low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗