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Autonomous Radiation Mapping and Quantification using an Unmanned Ground Vehicle. Part II - Autonomous Navigation

Nuclear sites across the Unites States and other nations in the world, are prone to extreme radiation effects. To understand the radiation hazards, plan the cleanup efforts; and to meet the quality standards and guidelines, it is important to accurately characterize any nuclear facility. One of the current methods in characterizing facilities is the use of advanced autonomous systems. These are safe, efficient, and cost-effective tools, which can safely deploy state-of-the-art instrumentation without exposing workers to radiation risks. Conventional methods of taking radiation measurements by hand within or around the containment areas, and analyzing the collected data to obtain the result are: Ineffective, Puts scientists at risk of Radiation, Not cost-effective. The platform uses the Robotic Operating Systems (ROS) to integrate multiple sensors seamlessly. It can operate near real time by using a distributed processing system to handle large amounts of data: Surrounding cameras, A multi-channel 3D Lidar, Manipulator arm, High-performance gamma-ray spectrometer.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Lidar Measurements of the Thermic Structure in the Troposphere

Lidar measurements by UTHE (1972) and similar measurements with acoustic radar by HALL (1972) have shown, that short time variations in the troposphere can be determined. Aerosol backscatter measurements give the vertical structure. A series of such results shows the time variation of the tropospheric structure. The Figure is an example for a measuring period during half an hour in summer 1972 (1 pulse per minute). These variations were produced by humidity variations. For example, at humidity variations from 75% to 77% aerosol particles with 1 micron radius change their radii during 50 to 100 milliseconds. By lidar technique it is possible to determine this effect qualitatively. With a pulse repetition rate of 1 per second we plan to investigate the thermic structure at different weather conditions. By simultaneous measurements of the nitrogen Raman component it would be possible to compare the short time variations by temperature and humidity. The influence of wind can be determined by scanning a defined region (region or space). The meteorologist is interested in results of short time variations in the troposphere (microscale). By this remote sensing method he can get these values continuously.

Werner, Ch.↗

Multiresolution pattern recognition of small volcanos in Magellan data

The Magellan data is a treasure-trove for scientific analysis of venusian geology, providing far more detail than was previously available from Pioneer Venus, Venera 15/16, or ground-based radar observations. However, at this point, planetary scientists are being overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of data collected--data analysis technology has not kept pace with our ability to collect and store it. In particular, 'small-shield' volcanos (less than 20 km in diameter) are the most abundant visible geologic feature on the planet. It is estimated, based on extrapolating from previous studies and knowledge of the underlying geologic processes, that there should be on the order of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 6) of these volcanos visible in the Magellan data. Identifying and studying these volcanos is fundamental to a proper understanding of the geologic evolution of Venus. However, locating and parameterizing them in a manual manner is very time-consuming. Hence, we have undertaken the development of techniques to partially automate this task. The goal is not the unrealistic one of total automation, but rather the development of a useful tool to aid the project scientists. The primary constraints for this particular problem are as follows: (1) the method must be reasonably robust; and (2) the method must be reasonably fast. Unlike most geological features, the small volcanos of Venus can be ascribed to a basic process that produces features with a short list of readily defined characteristics differing significantly from other surface features on Venus. For pattern recognition purposes the relevant criteria include the following: (1) a circular planimetric outline; (2) known diameter frequency distribution from preliminary studies; (3) a limited number of basic morphological shapes; and (4) the common occurrence of a single, circular summit pit at the center of the edifice.

Smyth, P.↗

A satellite passive 37-GHz scattering-based method for measuring oceanic rain rates

A combination of theory and measurement is used to develop a scattering-based method for quantitatively measuring rainfall over the ocean from Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) 37-GHz observations. This technique takes the observed scattering effects of precipitation on 37-GHz brightness temperatures and applies it to the oceanic environment. It requires an estimate of the effective radiating temperature of the cloudy portion of the atmosphere, and a brightness temperature measurement of the cloud-free ocean surface. These two measurements bound all possible combinations of clear and cloudy conditions within a footprint in terms of bipolarized brightness temperatures. Any satellite-observed brightness temperature T(B) lower than these values is assumed to reflect scattering, which at 37 GHz is only due to precipitation-size hydrometeors. Because the technique involves linear transformation between dual polarized brightness temperature and rain rate, there are no nonlinear 'footprint filling' effects and a unique footprint-averaged rain rate results. It is shown that these SMMR-derived rain rates for five cases of convection over the Gulf of Mexico are closely related to simultaneously derived radar rain rates, having a correlation of 0.90. This technique is then applied to a massive squall line over the Gulf of Mexico, and the resulting rain rate distribution reflects features found in cloud top heights and texture inferred from GOES infrared and visible imagery.

Spencer, R. W.↗

Radar transponder antenna pattern analysis for the space shuttle

In order to improve tracking capability, radar transponder antennas will soon be mounted on the Shuttle solid rocket boosters (SRB). These four antennas, each being identical cavity-backed helices operating at 5.765 GHz, will be mounted near the top of the SRB's, adjacent to the intertank portion of the external tank. The purpose is to calculate the roll-plane pattern (the plane perpendicular to the SRB axes and containing the antennas) in the presence of this complex electromagnetic environment. The large electrical size of this problem mandates an optical (asymptotic) approach. Development of a specific code for this application is beyond the scope of a summer fellowship; thus a general purpose code, the Numerical Electromagnetics Code - Basic Scattering Code, was chosen as the computational tool. This code is based on the modern Geometrical Theory of Diffraction, and allows computation of scattering of bodies composed of canonical problems such as plates and elliptic cylinders. Apertures mounted on a curved surface (the SRB) cannot be accomplished by the code, so an antenna model consisting of wires excited by a method of moments current input was devised that approximated the actual performance of the antennas. The improvised antenna model matched well with measurements taken at the MSFC range. The SRB's, the external tank, and the shuttle nose were modeled as circular cylinders, and the code was able to produce what is thought to be a reasonable roll-plane pattern.

Radcliff, Roger↗

Comparison of the CALIPSO satellite and ground-based observations of cirrus clouds at the ARM TWP sites

Statistics of ice cloud macrophysical and optical properties from the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument on board the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite are compared with those from ground-based lidar observations over a 31 month period. Ground-based lidar observations are taken from the micropulse lidars (MPL) at the three Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) tropical western pacific (TWP) sites: Manus, Nauru and Darwin. CALIPSO observations show a larger cloud fraction at high altitudes while the ground-based MPLs show a larger cloud fraction at low altitudes. The difference in mean ice cloud top and base heights at the Manus and Nauru sites are all within 0.51 km, although differences are statistically significant. Mean ice cloud geometrical thickness agree to within 0.05 km at the Manus and Nauru sites. Larger differences exist at Darwin due to excessive degradation of the MPL output power during our sampling period. Both sets of observations show thicker clouds during the nighttime which may be real but could also be partially an artifact of the decreased signal-to-noise ratio during the daytime. The number of ice cloud layers per profile are also shown to be consistent after accounting for the difference in spatial resolution. For cloud optical depths, four different retrieval methods are compared, two for each set of observations. All products show that the majority of ice cloud optical depths ({approx}60%) fall below an optical depth of 0.2. For most comparisons all four retrievals agree to within the uncertainty intervals. We find that both CALIPSO retrievals agree best to ground-based optical depths when the lidar ratio in the latter is retrieved instead of set to a fixed value. Also thoroughly compared is the cloud properties for the subset of ice clouds which reside in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗

Methods for Validation and Intercomparison of Remote Sensing and In situ Ice Water Measurements: Case Studies from CRYSTAL-FACE and Model Results

Remote sensing observations, such as those from AURA, are necessary to understand the role of cirrus in determining the radiative and humidity budgets of the upper troposphere. Using these measurements quantitatively requires comparisons with in situ measurements that have previously been validated. However, a direct comparison of remote and in situ measurements is difficult due to the requirement that the spatial and temporal overlap be sufficient in order to guarantee that both instruments are measuring the same air parcel. A difficult as this might be for gas phase intercomparisons, cloud inhomogeneities significantly exacerbate the problem for cloud ice water content measurements. The CRYSTAL-FACE mission provided an opportunity to assess how well such intercomparisons can be performed and to establish flight plans that will be necessary for validation of future satellite instruments. During CRYSTAL-FACE, remote and in situ instruments were placed on different aircraft (NASA's ER-2 and WB-59, and the two planes flew in tandem so that the in situ payload flew in the field of view of the remote instruments. We show here that, even with this type of careful flight planning, it is not always possible to guarantee that remote and in situ instruments are viewing the same air parcel. We use ice water data derived from the in situ Harvard Total Water (HV-TW) instrument, and the remote Goddard Cloud Radar System (CRS) and show that agreement between HV-TW and CRS is a strong function of the horizontal separation and the time delay between the aircraft transects. We also use a cloud model to simulate possible trajectories through a cloud and evaluate the use of statistical analysis in determining the agreement between the two instruments. This type of analysis should guide flight planning for future intercomparison efforts, whether for aircraft or satellite-borne instrumentation.

Sayres, D.S.↗

Quantitative Ceilometer-Radar Studies of Clouds Field Campaign Report

The Long Island Solar Farm (LISF) is a 32-megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant built through a collaboration including BP Solar, the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The LISF, located on the Brookhaven National Laboratory site, began delivering power to the LIPA grid in November 2011, and is currently one of the largest solar photovoltaic power plants in the eastern United States. It is generating enough renewable energy to power approximately 4,500 homes and is helping New York State meet its clean energy and carbon reduction goals. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BN)L has the LISF instrumented and is capturing solar insolation and power data that can be used for research purposes. Additional information on LISF is available here: https://www.bnl.gov/lisf/. A network of nine high-definition (HD cameras) and 32 pyranometers are deployed within the LISF for the purpose of monitoring the location and characteristics of clouds and available global horizontal irradiance at the surface across the region. Information collected by this network every 30 s is currently used in BNL’s solar NowCasting algorithm, which forecasts near-term solar energy availability accounting for the behavior of clouds. The most important parameters for forecasting the near-term solar energy availability are accurate estimations of their horizontal extend, horizontal motion, and cloud base height. Currently, images from nearly located cameras are used to estimate the cloud base height. In order to evaluate the potential of this method for estimating the cloud base height, we decided to deploy a Vaisala ceilometer at the LISF.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solving Cassini's data glitch problem during coherency mode transition for Titan radar observations

We describe the problem of regular small telemetry losses incurred during coherency mode transitions in Cassini’s telecommunication. The project did not originally plan any corrective steps for avoiding these data losses, because of 1) the disparity between the small durations of the transitions (1-2 min) and large playback capability losses (15 min) needed for bracketing the transition time spans and 2) the unpredictable content of data downlinking during the transitions. However, as the intense science data return from the tour began, it became apparent that the impact of these small losses can sometimes be significant. We provide two examples of the impact on Radar-dedicated Titan flybys. In general, the impacts are larger for high-rate data and for data acquired during a targeted flyby of Titan and other icy satellites. Although the content of data during a transition for every downlink pass is unpredictable, we are certain that some important data will be lost on downlink passes dedicated to transmit the flyby data and it does not matter what part of the data will be hit by the transitions. We collected more than 200 days of data from Cassini tour operations between June 2004 and February 2005 to analyze the distributions of the start time and duration of the transitions. We found that the occurrence of a transition can be predicted within a 5-min window, with 95 percent confidence. Given that, it is possible to eliminate the data losses by pausing playback at the beginning of a transition for 5 minutes and resuming playback after transition completion. We briefly describe three operational fixes as to how to implement the playback pause, with the pros and cons for each method. Finally, we report the results of the method chosen by the project and implemented on the spacecraft for several Titan and icy satellites flybys between September and October, 2005.

Weld, K. R.↗

Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling for a Wind Ramp Case over Complex Terrain

Within the wind energy community, it has become increasingly important to simulate realistic weather events at high fidelity in order to improve wind turbine design, wind farm efficiency, and power forecasting. One of the major difficulties in simulating atmospheric events with numerical models at high fidelity is in accurately transitioning from the mesoscale to the microscale. The mesoscale flow, when input into the large-eddy simulation (LES) domain, will be free of resolved turbulence; needing sufficient time and space (known as fetch) for resolved-scale turbulence to develop. In order to reduce this fetch, several methods exist in which the temperature field, wind field, or both, are stochastically perturbed in order to accelerate the generation of turbulence. However, for cases involving complex terrain, it remains unclear if these perturbation processes are necessary, and if the interaction of the flow over the terrain, alone, is sufficient to generate adequate turbulence. In this study, a wind ramp event observed at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) outside of Boulder, CO is simulated first with a mesoscale model and then, using the simulated mesoscale solution as initial and boundary conditions, within a microscale LES solver. The mesoscale solution generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model accurately captures the wind ramp event with only a slight temporal shift and a small temperature bias when compared to the meteorological towers in the NWTC site. This information is then taken as the initial and boundary conditions within the Simulator for Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) microscale LES model with varying terrain inputs. These inputs include the high-resolution (roughly 30 m grid spacing) terrain data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) (Figure 1a), as well as, three intermediate terrain resolution data sets produced by applying a uniform convolution window to the SRTM data with varying window sizes (Figure 1b-d). These are compared to the WRF terrain data interpolated to the high-resolution microscale grid (Figure 1e) in order to determine the impact of low-resolution (about 1 km grid spacing) terrain data on turbulence generation. The wind field is compared at several heights and distances along the dominant wind flow axis between each of the terrain cases. It is found that the development of turbulence across the domain is accelerated as terrain information increases in fidelity. Further, because this ramp event at the location of interest is largely influenced by the interaction of the short-wave trough with the terrain, as the topographic information decreases in fidelity the accuracy of the ramp event is decreased. To make generalizations and describe the benefits and shortcomings of this approach, several of the existing perturbation techniques are employed and compared to that of turbulence generation through topographic features.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Appendices for Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence Report

The Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence looks to use machine learning to spot geothermal identifiers from land maps. This is done to remotely detect geothermal sites for the purpose of energy uses. Such uses include enhanced geothermal system (EGS) applications, especially regarding finding locations for viable EGS sites. This submission includes the appendices and reports formerly attached to the Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence Quarterly and Final Reports. The appendices below include methodologies, results, and some data regarding what was used to train the Geothermal Exploration AI. The methodology reports explain how specific anomaly detection modes were selected for use with the Geo Exploration AI. This also includes how the detection mode is useful for finding geothermal sites. Some methodology reports also include small amounts of code. Results from these reports explain the accuracy of methods used for the selected sites (Brady Desert Peak and Salton Sea). Data from these detection modes can be found in some of the reports, such as the Mineral Markers Maps, but most of the raw data is included the DOE Database which includes Brady, Desert Peak, and Salton Sea Geothermal Sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Cloud Spatial Structure and 3D Radiative Transfer

Cloud radiative properties are sensitive to drop size and other parameters of cloud micro-structure, but also to cloud shape,spacing, and other parameters of cloud macro-structure, including internal fractal structure. New information on cloud structure is being derived from a variety of cloud radars, and ongoing field programs such as DoE/ARM. These programs are improving the measurement and modelling of physical and radiative properties of clouds. A parallel effort is underway to improve cloud remote sensing, especially from the new suite of EOS-AM1 instruments which will provide higher spectral, spatial resolution, and/or angular resolution. Key parameters for improving pixel-scale retrievals are cloud thickness and photon mean-free-path, which together determine the scale of "radiative smoothing" of cloud fluxes and radiances. This scale has been observed as a change in the spatial spectrum of Landsat cloud radiances, and was also recently found with the Goddard micropulse lidar, by searching for returns from directions nonparallel to the incident beam. "Offbeam" Lidar returns are now being used to estimate the cloud "radiative Green's function", G,which depends on cloud thickness and may be used to retrieve that important quantity. G is also being applied to improving simple IPA estimates of cloud radiative properties. This and other measurements of 3D transfer in clouds, coupled with Monte Carlo and other 3D transfer methods, are beginning to provide a better understanding of the dependence of radiation on cloud inhomogeneity, and to suggest new retrieval and parameterization algorithms which take account of cloud inhomogeneity.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Evaluation and Application of Satellite-Based Latent Heating Profile Estimation Methods

In recent years, methods for estimating atmospheric latent heating vertical structure from both passive and active microwave remote sensing have matured to the point where quantitative evaluation of these methods is the next logical step. Two approaches for heating algorithm evaluation are proposed: First, application of heating algorithms to synthetic data, based upon cloud-resolving model simulations, can be used to test the internal consistency of heating estimates in the absence of systematic errors in physical assumptions. Second, comparisons of satellite-retrieved vertical heating structures to independent ground-based estimates, such as rawinsonde-derived analyses of heating, provide an additional test. The two approaches are complementary, since systematic errors in heating indicated by the second approach may be confirmed by the first. A passive microwave and combined passive/active microwave heating retrieval algorithm are evaluated using the described approaches. In general, the passive microwave algorithm heating profile estimates are subject to biases due to the limited vertical heating structure information contained in the passive microwave observations. These biases may be partly overcome by including more environment-specific a priori information into the algorithm s database of candidate solution profiles. The combined passive/active microwave algorithm utilizes the much higher-resolution vertical structure information provided by spaceborne radar data to produce less biased estimates; however, the global spatio-temporal sampling by spaceborne radar is limited. In the present study, the passive/active microwave algorithm is used to construct a more physically-consistent and environment-specific set of candidate solution profiles for the passive microwave algorithm and to help evaluate errors in the passive algorithm s heating estimates. Although satellite estimates of latent heating are based upon instantaneous, footprint- scale data, suppression of random errors requires averaging to at least half-degree resolution. Analysis of mesoscale and larger space-time scale phenomena based upon passive and passive/active microwave heating estimates from TRMM, SSMI, and AMSR data will be presented at the conference.

Olson, William S.↗

The GPM Ground Validation Program

We present a detailed overview of the structure and activities associated with the NASA-led ground-validation component of the NASA-JAXA Global Pre­cipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The overarching philosophy and approaches for NASA's GV program are presented with primary focus placed on aspects of direct validation and a summary of physical validation campaigns and results. We describe a spectrum of key instruments, methods, field campaigns and data products developed and used by NASA's GV team to verify GPM level-2 precipitation products in rain and snow. We describe the tools and analysis framework used to confirm that NASA's Level-I science requirements for GPM are met by the GPM Core Observatory. Examples of routine validation activities related to verification of Integrated Multi­satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products for two different regions of the globe (Korea and the US) are provided, and a brief analysis related to IMERG performance in the extreme rainfall event associated with Hurricane Florence is discussed.

precipitation↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Mars: Remote Sensing and Terrestrial Analogs

The session "Mars: Remote Sensing and Terrestrial Analogs" included the following:Physical Meaning of the Hapke Parameter for Macroscopic Roughness: Experimental Determination for Planetary Regolith Surface Analogs and Numerical Approach; Near-Infrared Spectra of Martian Pyroxene Separates: First Results from Mars Spectroscopy Consortium; Anomalous Spectra of High-Ca Pyroxenes: Correlation Between Ir and M ssbauer Patterns; THEMIS-IR Emissivity Spectrum of a Large Dark Streak near Olympus Mons; Geomorphologic/Thermophysical Mapping of the Athabasca Region, Mars, Using THEMIS Infrared Imaging; Mars Thermal Inertia from THEMIS Data; Multispectral Analysis Methods for Mapping Aqueous Mineral Depostis in Proposed Paleolake Basins on Mars Using THEMIS Data; Joint Analysis of Mars Odyssey THEMIS Visible and Infrared Images: A Magic Airbrush for Qualitative and Quantitative Morphology; Analysis of Mars Thermal Emission Spectrometer Data Using Large Mineral Reference Libraries ; Negative Abundance : A Problem in Compositional Modeling of Hyperspectral Images; Mars-LAB: First Remote Sensing Data of Mineralogy Exposed at Small Mars-Analog Craters, Nevada Test Site; A Tool for the 2003 Rover Mini-TES: Downwelling Radiance Compensation Using Integrated Line-Sight Sky Measurements; Learning About Mars Geology Using Thermal Infrared Spectral Imaging: Orbiter and Rover Perspectives; Classifying Terrestrial Volcanic Alteration Processes and Defining Alteration Processes they Represent on Mars; Cemented Volcanic Soils, Martian Spectra and Implications for the Martian Climate; Palagonitic Mars: A Basalt Centric View of Surface Composition and Aqueous Alteration; Combining a Non Linear Unmixing Model and the Tetracorder Algorithm: Application to the ISM Dataset; Spectral Reflectance Properties of Some Basaltic Weathering Products; Morphometric LIDAR Analysis of Amboy Crater, California: Application to MOLA Analysis of Analog Features on Mars; Airborne Radar Study of Soil Moisture at a Mars Analog Site: Tohachi Wash/Little Colorado River; and Antarctic Dry Valleys: Modification of Rocks and Soils and Implications for Mars The Arkaroola Mars Analogue Region, South Australia.

Source record↗

Plate tectonics from VLBI and SLR global data

This study is based on data derived from fifteen years of observations of the SLR (side-looking radar) network and six years of the VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) network. In order to use all available information VLBI and SLR global data sets were combined in a least squares fashion to calculate station horizontal velocities. All significant data pertaining to a single site contribute to the station horizontal motion. The only constraint on the solution is that no vertical motion is allowed. This restriction does not greatly affect the precision of the overall solution given the fact that the expected vertical motion for most stations, even those experiencing post glacial uplift, is well under 1 cm/yr. Since the average baseline is under 4,000 km, only a small fraction of the station vertical velocity is translated into baseline rates so that the error introduced in the solution by restricting up-down station movement is minimal. As a reference, station velocities were then compared to the ones predicted by the NUVEL-1 geological model of DeMets et al. (1990). The focus of the study is on analyzing these discrepancies for global plate tectonics as well as regional tectonic settings. The method used also allows us not only to derive horizontal motion for individual stations but also to calculate Euler vectors for those plates that have enough stations located on the stable interior like North America, Pacific, Eurasia, and Australia.

Harrison, Christopher G. A.↗

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height anomalies. Because of its potential for large scale synoptic coverage of the deep ocean, acoustic travel time data should be a natural complement to satellite altimetry. Satellite data give us vertical integrals associated with thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Miller, Robert N.↗