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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Description of Sensor Assignment Optimization Method as Deployed on a Multi-Node Cluster

Data analytic methods are being developed to address the problem of how to assign a sensor set in a nuclear facility such that a requisite level of process monitoring capability is realized and that the sensor set is sufficiently rich to determine the status of the individual sensors with respect to need for calibration. There is an awareness in the nuclear industry that data analytics combined with rich sensor sets represent a means to improve operations and reduce costs. In the industry the calibration problem has been previously approached as an empirical data-driven problem with several methods having been developed. However, the experience of the utilities over the past ten years with these methods indicates that the absence of physics-based information renders the data-driven approach less reliable. Complicating factors such as the inherent variability of operation (both equipment alignment and operating condition) can confound a pure data-driven approach while there are no rigorous guidelines for determining what constitutes an adequate sensor set. The solution under development to overcome these shortcomings supplements the data analytic method with process information in a so-called process-constrained data-analytic approach. Simple balance equations are written for generic components (e.g., mechanical pump, valve, and heat exchanger). These do not require a priori knowledge of process parameters, such as heat transfer coefficients or friction factors. All that is needed on the part of the utility user is to identify the components and how they are connected. This report describes the development of a parallel computing capability for determining the optimal sensor set. The optimal sensor set problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Computation time increases exponentially as the size of the system grows. To overcome this difficulty a pre-conditioner algorithm is developed to find an approximate solution close the actual solution. This serves as a seed for the full-blown algorithm and acts to constrain the space that must searched. The optimization algorithms are described and the implementation on a parallel computing platform is described. The application of the method to a use case we are solving in collaboration with our utility partner served to illustrate how the default sensor set in a nuclear plant may not provide sufficient coverage to infer sensor calibration status.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE LARGE SKY AREA MULTI-OBJECT FIBER SPECTROSCOPIC TELESCOPE QUASAR SURVEY: QUASAR PROPERTIES FROM THE FIRST DATA RELEASE

We present preliminary results of the quasar survey in the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) first data release (DR1), which includes the pilot survey and the first year of the regular survey. There are 3921 quasars reliably identified, among which 1180 are new quasars discovered in the survey. These quasars are at low to median redshifts, with a highest z of 4.83. We compile emission line measurements around the Hα, Hβ, Mg ii, and C iv regions for the new quasars. The continuum luminosities are inferred from SDSS photometric data with model fitting, as the spectra in DR1 are non-flux-calibrated. We also compile the virial black hole mass estimates, with flags indicating the selection methods, and broad absorption line quasars. The catalog and spectra for these quasars are also available. Of the 3921 quasars, 28% are independently selected with optical–infrared colors, indicating that the method is quite promising for the completeness of the quasar survey. LAMOST DR1 and the ongoing quasar survey will provide valuable data for studies of quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Soil Water Characteristics of Cores from Low- and High-Centered Polygons, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2012

This dataset includes soil water characteristic curves for soil and permafrost in two representative frozen cores collected from a high-center polygon (HCP) and a low-center polygon (LCP) from the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Data include soil water content and soil water potential measured using the simple evaporation method for hydrological and biogeochemical simulations and experimental data analysis. Data can be used to generate a soil moisture characteristic curve, which can be fit to a variety of hydrological functions to infer critical parameters for soil physics. Considering the measured the soil water properties, the van Genuchten model predicted well the HCP, in contrast, the Kosugi model well fitted LCP which had more saturated condition. This dataset includes 8 zipped files, one txt files, and one pdf file.Data were collected to estimate soil water potential and water availability at various temperatures and conditions for hydrological and biogeochemical simulations and experimental data analysis. Data can be used to generate a soil moisture characteristic curve, which can be fit to a variety of hydrological functions to infer critical parameters for soil physics.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The environments of double radiogalaxies

Discussed here are simple methods by which the densities and pressures of the gas confining double radiogalaxies can be estimated from optical and x ray data. By applying these methods to an unbiased sample of nearby (z less than 0.5) double radiogalaxies, the author quantifies the empirical relation between the external confining pressure and the internal pressure of the lobes as inferred from the minimum energy argument. This relation is explained by an analytic model in which the lobes are statically confined by ambient material pre-heated in the bow-shock of the advancing radiosource. Such a model allows one to estimate source expansion speeds from a combination of radio and environmental data, and estimate properties of the environment from radio data alone, providing expansion speeds can be estimated from multifrequency observations.

Rawlings, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2016

On the Distance to the North Polar Spur and the Local CO-H2 Factor

Aims. Most models identify the X-ray bright North Polar Spur (NPS) with a hot interstellar (IS) bubble in the Sco-Cen star-forming region at approx. = to 130 pc. An opposite view considers the NPS as a distant structure associated with Galactic nuclear outflows. Constraints on the NPS distance can be obtained by comparing the foreground IS gas column inferred from X-ray absorption to the distribution of gas and dust along the line of sight. Absorbing columns towards shadowing molecular clouds simultaneously constrain the CO-H2 conversion factor. Methods. We derived the columns of X-ray absorbing matter N(sub Habs) from spectral fitting of dedicated XMM-Newton observations towards the NPS southern terminus (l(sup II) approx. = to 29 degrees, b(sup II) approx. = to +5 to +11 degrees). The distribution of the IS matter was obtained from absorption lines in stellar spectra, 3D dust maps and emission data, including high spatial resolution CO measurements recorded for this purpose. Results. N(sub Habs) varies from approx. = to 4.3 to approx. = to 1.3 x 10(exp 21) per sq cm along the 19 fields. Relationships between X-ray brightness, absorbing column and hardness ratio demonstrate a brightness decrease with latitude governed by increasing absorption. The comparison with absorption data, local and large-scale dust maps rules out a NPS near side closer than 300 pc. The correlation between N(sub Habs) and the reddening increases with the sightline length from 300 pc to 4 kpc and is the tightest with Planck tau(sub 353GHz) -based reddening, suggesting a much larger distance. N(H)/E(B-V)(sub tao) approx. = to 4.1 x 10(exp 21) per sq cm mag, close to Fermi-Planck determinations. N(sub Habs) absolute values are compatible with HI-CO clouds at -5 less than or equal to V(sub LSR) less than or equal to +25 to +45 km/s and a NPS potentially far beyond the Local Arm. A shadow cast by a b=+9 degree molecular cloud constrains X(sub CO) in that direction to less than or equal to 1.0 x 10(exp 20) sec/((sq cm)K km). The average X(sub CO) over the fields is less than or equal to 0.75 x 10(exp 20) sec/((sq cm)K km).

X-rays: ISM / radio lines: ISM / local insterstell↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian K-SVD Using Fast Variational Inference

Recent work in signal processing in general and image processing in particular deals with sparse representation related problems. Two such problems are of paramount importance: an overriding need for designing a well-suited overcomplete dictionary containing a redundant set of atoms— i.e., basis signals—and how to find a sparse representation of a given signal with respect to the chosen dictionary. Dictionary learning techniques, among which we find the popular K-singular value decomposition algorithm, tackle these problems by adapting a dictionary to a set of training data. A common drawback of such techniques is the need for parameter-tuning. In order to overcome this limitation, we propose a fullyautomated Bayesian method that considers the uncertainty of the estimates and produces a sparse representation of the data without prior information on the number of non-zeros in each representation vector. We follow a Bayesian approach that uses a three-tiered hierarchical prior to enforce sparsity on the representations and develop an efficient variational inference framework that reduces computational complexity. Furthermore, we describe a greedy approach that speeds up the whole process. Lastly, we present experimental results that show superior performance on two different applications with real images: denoising and inpainting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling energy balance while correcting for measurement error via free knot splines

Measurements of energy balance components (energy intake, energy expenditure, changes in energy stores) are often plagued with measurement error. Doubly-labeled water can measure energy intake (EI) with negligible error, but is expensive and cumbersome. An alternative approach that is gaining popularity is to use the energy balance principle, by measuring energy expenditure (EE) and change in energy stores (ES) and then back-calculate EI. Gold standard methods for EE and ES exist and are known to give accurate measurements, albeit at a high cost. We propose a joint statistical model to assess the measurement error in cheaper, non-intrusive measures of EE and ES. We let the unknown true EE and ES for individuals be latent variables, and model them using a bivariate distribution. We try both a bivariate Normal as well as a Dirichlet Process Mixture Model, and compare the results via simulation. Our approach, is the first to account for the dependencies that exist in individuals’ daily EE and ES. We employ semiparametric regression with free knot splines for measurements with error, and linear components for error free covariates. We adopt a Bayesian approach to estimation and inference and use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo to generate draws from the posterior distribution. Based on the semiparameteric regression, we develop a calibration equation that adjusts a cheaper, less reliable estimate, closer to the true value. Along with this calibrated value, our method also gives credible intervals to assess uncertainty. A simulation study shows our calibration helps produce a more accurate estimate. Furthermore, our approach compares favorably in terms of prediction to other commonly used models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainties due to optical potentials in one-neutron knockout reactions

One-neutron knockout reactions have been widely used to extract information about the single-particle structure of nuclei from the valley of stability to the drip lines. The interpretation of knockout data relies on reaction models, where the uncertainties are typically not accounted for. In this work, we quantify uncertainties of optical potentials used in these reaction models and propagate them, for the first time, to knockout observables using a Bayesian analysis. We study two reactions in the present paper, the first of which involves a loosely bound halo projectile, 11 Be, and the second a tightly bound projectile, 12 C. We first quantify the parametric uncertainties associated with phenomenological optical potentials. Complementing this approach, we also quantify the model uncertainties associated with the chiral forces that can be used to construct microscopic optical potentials. For the phenomenological study, we investigate the impact of the imaginary terms of the optical potential on the breakup and stripping components of the knockout cross sections as well as the impact of the angular range. For the 11 Be case, the theoretical uncertainty from the phenomenological method is on the order of the experimental uncertainty of the knockout observables; however, for the 12 C case, the theoretical uncertainty is significantly larger. Additionally, the widths of the uncertainty bands for the knockout observables obtained for the microscopic study and the phenomenological approach are of similar orders of magnitude. Based on this work we conclude that structure information inferred from the ratio of the knockout cross sections will carry a theoretical uncertainty of at least 20% for halo nuclei and at least 40% for tightly bound nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Inference of Ice Cloud Properties from High-spectral Resolution Infrared Observations

The theoretical basis is explored for inferring the microphysical properties of ice crystal from high-spectral resolution infrared observations. A radiative transfer model is employed to simulate spectral radiances to address relevant issues. The extinction and absorption efficiencies of individual ice crystals, assumed as hexagonal columns for large particles and droxtals for small particles, are computed from a combination of the finite- difference time-domain (FDTD) technique and a composite method. The corresponding phase functions are computed from a combination of FDTD and an improved geometric optics method (IGOM). Bulk scattering properties are derived by averaging the single- scattering properties of individual particles for 30 particle size distributions developed from in situ measurements and for additional four analytical Gamma size distributions for small particles. The non-sphericity of ice crystals is shown to have a significant impact on the radiative signatures in the infrared (IR) spectrum; the spherical particle approximation for inferring ice cloud properties may result in an overest&ation of the optical thickness and an inaccurate retrieval of effective particle size. Furthermore, we show that the error associated with the use of the Henyey-Greenstein phase function can be as larger as 1 K in terms of brightness temperature for larger particle effective size at some strong scattering wavenumbers. For small particles, the difference between the two phase functions is much less, with brightness temperatures generally differing by less than 0.4 K. The simulations undertaken in this study show that the slope of the IR brightness temperature spectrum between 790-960/cm is sensitive to the effective particle size. Furthermore, a strong sensitivity of IR brightness temperature to cloud optical thickness is noted within the l050-1250/cm region. Based on this spectral feature, a technique is presented for the simultaneous retrieval of the visible optical thickness and effective particle size from high spectral resolution infrared data under ice cloudy con&tion. The error analysis shows that the uncertainty of the retrieved optical thickness and effective particle size has a small range of variation. The error for retrieving particle size in conjunction with an uncertainty of 5 K in cloud'temperature, or a surface temperature uncertainty of 2.5 K, is less than 15%. The corresponding e m r in the uncertainty of optical thickness is within 5-2096, depending on the value of cloud optical thickness. The applicability of the technique is demonstrated using the aircraft-based High- resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data from the Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) in 1996 and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Clouds Experiment (FIRE-ACE) in 1998.

Huang, Hung-Lung↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

In Situ Observation of Directed Nanoparticle Aggregation During the Synthesis of Ordered Nanoporous Metal in Soft Templates

The prevalent approach to developing new nanomaterials is a trial and error process of iteratively altering synthesis procedures and then characterizing the resulting nanostructures. This is fundamentally limited in that the growth processes that occur during synthesis can only be inferred from the final synthetic structure. Directly observing real-time nanomaterial growth provides unprecedented insight into the relationship between synthesis conditions and product evolution, and facilitates a mechanistic approach to nanomaterial development. Here we use in situ liquid stage scanning transmission electron microscopy to observe the growth of mesoporous palladium in a solvated block copolymer (BCP) template under various synthesis conditions, and ultimately determine a refined synthesis procedure that yields ordered pores. We find that at low organic solvent (tetrahydrofuran, THF) content, the BCP assembles into a rigid, cylindrical micelle array with a high degree of short-range order, but poor long-range order. Upon slowing the THF evaporation rate using a solvent-vapor anneal step, the long-range order is greatly improved. The electron beam induces nucleation of small particles in the aqueous phase around the micelles. The small particles then flocculate and grow into denser structures that surround the micelles, forming an ordered mesoporous structure. The microscope observations revealed that template disorder can be addressed prior to reaction, and is not invariably induced by the growth process itself, allowing us to more quickly optimize the synthetic method. This work was conducted in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), a national scientific user facility sponsored by DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. This research was funded in part by: the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientist and Engineers for I.A., the University of California Academic Senate and the University of California Laboratory fee research grant, the Laboratory-Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories, and the Chemical Imaging Initiative at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

cylindrical micelle↗
DOE OSTI2013

Large-Scale Optimization for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

The SAGUARO (Scalable Algorithms for Groundwater Uncertainty Analysis and Robust Optimization) Project focused on the development of scalable numerical algorithms for large-scale Bayesian inversion in complex systems that capitalize on advances in large-scale simulation-based optimization and inversion methods. The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, the University of Texas at Austin, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Sandia National Laboratories. The research was directed in three complementary areas: efficient approximations of the Hessian operator, reductions in complexity of forward simulations via stochastic spectral approximations and model reduction, and employing large-scale optimization concepts to accelerate sampling. The MIT₋Sandia component of the SAGUARO Project addressed the intractability of conventional sampling methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems by devising reduced-order models that are faithful to the full-order model over a wide range of parameter values; sampling then employs the reduced model rather than the full model, resulting in very large computational savings. Results indicate little effect on the computed posterior distribution. On the other hand, in the Texas₋Georgia Tech component of the project, we retain the full-order model, but exploit inverse problem structure (adjoint-based gradients and partial Hessian information of the parameter-to-observation map) to implicitly extract lower dimensional information on the posterior distribution; this greatly speeds up sampling methods, so that fewer sampling points are needed. We can think of these two approaches as "reduce then sample" and "sample then reduce." In fact, these two approaches are complementary, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Moreover, they both exploit deterministic inverse problem structure, in the form of adjoint-based gradient and Hessian information of the underlying parameter-to-observation map, to achieve their speedups.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility of Correlation-Aware Inference and Universal Precision Scaling in Bonse–Hart Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering

Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) provides access to micrometre-scale structure, but useful measurements often require long counting times. In this work, we test whether the expected smoothness of the scattering profile can be exploited to improve data quality at lower counting statistics. We apply a Gaussian-process-based method to Bonse–Hart USANS data and evaluate its performance on pseudo-measurements generated from high-statistics experiments under Poisson statistics. This provides a stringent test of how well the underlying I(Q) profile can be reconstructed when the available counts are substantially reduced. We further show that, in the counting-limited regime, the reconstruction error follows a universal scaling behaviour that differs from the usual independent-counting expectation. At higher counts, the improvement crosses over to a resolution-limited regime set by analyser-angle discretization and rocking-curve width. These results clarify when correlation-aware inference is useful in USANS and provide a practical basis for improving measurement efficiency and beam-time usage.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-dimensional traction microscopy accounting for cell-induced matrix degradation

Tractions exerted by cells on the extracellular matrix (ECM) are critical in many important physiological and pathological processes such as embryonic morphogenesis, wound healing, and cancer metastasis. Three-dimensional Traction Microscopy (3DTM) is a tool to quantify cellular tractions by first measuring the displacement field in the ECM in response to these tractions, and then using this measurement to infer tractions. Most applications of 3DTM have assumed that the ECM has spatially-uniform mechanical properties, but cells secrete enzymes that can locally degrade the ECM. In this work, a novel computational method is developed to quantify both cellular tractions and ECM degradation. In particular, the ECM is modeled as a hyperelastic, Neo-Hookean solid, whose material parameters are corrupted by a single degradation parameter. The feasibility of determining both the traction and the degradation parameter is first demonstrated by showing the existence and uniqueness of the solution. An inverse problem is then formulated to determine the nodal values of the traction vector and the degradation parameter, with the objective of minimizing the difference between a predicted and measured displacement field, under the constraint that the predicted displacement field satisfies the equation of equilibrium. The inverse problem is solved by means of a gradient-based optimization approach, and the gradient is computed efficiently using appropriately derived adjoint fields. The computational method is validated in-silico using a geometrically realistic neuronal cell model and synthetic traction and degradation fields. It is found that the method accurately recovers both the traction and degradation fields. Moreover, it is found that neglecting ECM degradation can yield significant errors in traction measurements. Finally, our method can extend the range of context where tractions can be appropriately measured.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Numerical convergence and validation of the DIMP inverse particle transport model

The data integration with modeled predictions (DIMP) model is a promising inverse radiation transport method for solving the special nuclear material (SNM) holdup problem. Unlike previous methods, DIMP is a completely passive nondestructive assay technique that requires no initial assumptions regarding the source distribution or active measurement time. DIMP predicts the most probable source location and distribution through Bayesian inference and quasi-Newtonian optimization of predicted detector re-sponses (using the adjoint transport solution) with measured responses. DIMP performs well with for-ward hemispherical collimation and unshielded measurements, but several considerations are required when using narrow-view collimated detectors. DIMP converged well to the correct source distribution as the number of synthetic responses increased. DIMP also performed well for the first experimental validation exercise after applying a collimation factor, and sufficiently reducing the source search vol-ume's extent to prevent the optimizer from getting stuck in local minima. DIMP's simple point detector response function (DRF) is being improved to address coplanar false positive/negative responses, and an angular DRF is being considered for integration with the next version of DIMP to account for highly collimated responses. Overall, DIMP shows promise for solving the SNM holdup inverse problem, especially once an improved optimization algorithm is implemented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Prompt Neutron Decay Constant Measurements to Obtain Additional Kinetics Information

Prompt neutron decay constant measurements are typically used to infer the prompt neutron lifetime in a chain-reacting system, but these measurements include much more information about the kinetics of the system. This work focuses specifically on the Rossi-α method of measuring the prompt neutron decay constant. The Rossi-α system of equations consists of five unknown parameters. With five unknowns and three equations, the system of equations solved by the Rossi-α measurement is under-determined. It has been postulated that a well posed problem can be formulated using independent measurement configurations on a single system. The external source strength, the effective delayed neutron fractions, and Diven’s parameter do not typically change for different configurations of a single experiment. If good detector geometry is chosen, the detector efficiency does not change for multiple measurements of a single experiment using Rossi-α measurements. By making these assumptions, there are only two unique variables. This knowledge can be used to solve for most of the unique parameters using two independent, unique Rossi-α measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗