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Runtime Verification with State Estimation

We introduce the concept of Runtime Verification with State Estimation and show how this concept can be applied to estimate theprobability that a temporal property is satisfied by a run of a program when monitoring overhead is reduced by sampling. In such situations, there may be gaps in the observed program executions, thus making accurate estimation challenging. To deal with the effects of sampling on runtime verification, we view event sequences as observation sequences of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), use an HMM model of the monitored program to "fill in" sampling-induced gaps in observation sequences, and extend the classic forward algorithm for HMM state estimation (which determines the probability of a state sequence, given an observation sequence) to compute the probability that the property is satisfied by an execution of the program. To validate our approach, we present a case study based on the mission software for a Mars rover. The results of our case study demonstrate high prediction accuracy for the probabilities computed by our algorithm. They also show that our technique is much more accurate than simply evaluating the temporal property on the given observation sequences, ignoring the gaps.

sampling↗

Implementing computer-based procedures: thinking outside the paper margins - 236

In the past year there has been increased interest from the nuclear industry in adopting the use of electronic work packages and computer-based procedures (CBPs) in the field. The goal is to incorporate the use of technology in order to meet the Nuclear Promise requirements of reducing costs, and improving efficiency and decreasing human error rates in plant operations. Researchers, together with the nuclear industry, have been investigating the benefits of an electronic work package system and specifically CBPs would have over current paper-based procedure practices. There are several classifications of CBPs ranging from a straight copy of the paper-based procedure in PDF format to a more intelligent dynamic CBP. A CBP system offers a vast variety of potential improvements, such as context driven job aids, integrated human performance tools (e.g., place-keeping and correct component verification), and dynamic step presentation. However, the implementation of a CBP system does not automatically improve the quality of procedures. Utilities should review, standardize format and update current procedure content before transitioning to a computerized process. Implementation of a CBP system can be a time to break out of traditional procedure writing processes and create new processes and procedures that take advantage of the capabilities a CBP system. This paper summarizes INL research findings related to challenges with implementing a CBP system and provides suggestions to take into consideration. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Pooled Rideshare in the U.S.: An Exploratory Study of User Preferences

Pooled ridesharing offers on-demand, one-way, cost-effective transportation for passengers traveling in similar directions via a shared vehicle ride with others they do not know. Despite its potential benefits, the adoption of pooled rideshare remains low in the United States. This exploratory study aims to evaluate potential service improvements and features that may increase users’ willingness to adopt the service. The study analyzed transportation behaviors, rideshare preferences, and willingness to adopt pooled rideshare services among 8296 U.S. participants in 2025, building on findings from a 2021 nationwide survey of 5385 U.S. participants. The study incorporated 77 actionable items developed from the results of the 2021 survey to assess whether addressing specific user-generated topics such as safety, reliability, convenience, and privacy can improve pooled rideshare use. A side-by-side comparison of the 2021 and 2025 data revealed shifts in transportation behavior, with personal rideshare usage increasing from 22% to 28%, public transportation from 21% to 27%, and pooled rideshare from 6% to 8%, while personal vehicle (79%) use remained dominant. Participants rated features such as driver verification (94%), vehicle information (93%), peak time reliability (93%), and saving time and money (92–93%) as most important for improving rideshare services. A pre-to-post analysis of willingness to use pooled rideshare utilizing the actionable items as per respondents’ preferences showed improvement: “definitely will” increased from 15.9% to 20.1% and “probably will” rose from 35.6% to 47.7%. These results suggest that well-targeted service improvements may meaningfully enhance pooled rideshare acceptance. This study offers practical guidance for Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) and policymakers aiming to improve pooled rideshare as well as potential future research opportunities.

Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)↗

Code Coverage Status of the ARC Code PERSENT

The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system supports users in their fast reactor design goals by providing neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and structural analysis capabilities. PERSENT fulfills the role of generating reactivity coefficients for a given time point of a REBUS calculation usable in a point kinetics based safety analysis capability. PERSENT also provides a sensitivity coefficient capability on eigenvalue, reactivity worth, and several other key coefficients that are used in the follow-on safety analysis. Given a co-variance matrix, PERSENT can carry out the uncertainty quantification to indicate the amount of error in the reactivity coefficients derived from the errors in the cross section measurements. With continued improvement of computational resources, many of the geometry modeling capabilities in DIF3D that were primarily used in low order schemes are not really needed anymore. Today, the diffusion and transport capabilities of DIF3D-VARIANT are primarily used in the reactor design process with some scattered usage of DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-Nodal. PERSENT is part of the ARC code system and is built around DIF3D-VARIANT and the flux solution it provides. The purpose of the present work is to identify a set of test problems for PERSENT and assess the code coverage of PERSENT for those test problems. PERSENT treats the DIF3D executable as an external executable and thus the code coverage considerations only need to focus on the PERSENT source code and only a fraction of the connected modules in the existing ARC software library. The goal is to document what parts of the existing PERSENT code are touched by the set of test problems and which are not. Because the verification work done on PERSENT was focused on the most common uses of PERSENT for fast reactor analysis, the code coverage assessment of those capabilities is the highest priority. This will ensure that nothing is being missed by the existing verification test problems that users of PERSENT rely upon. The code coverage analysis of PERSENT was performed with the Code Coverage Tool of the Intel Fortran compiler which requires modifications to the compilation of PERSENT. The detailed coverage tables are given for each submodule of PERSENT. Most of the uncovered parts/files could be easily ignored because they are either for error message and debugging output or not needed by PERSENT today. Only a few uncovered parts of PERSENT deserve extending the verification test suite.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of AI-Enabled Digital Documented Safety Analysis: A Case Study

Safety basis documentation development and review under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) authorization have emerged as critical constraint throttling deployment of advanced nuclear reactors, with traditional processes demanding extraordinary resource investment that delays the delivery of these technologies. Traditional Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) processes rely on static documents with limited traceability [U.S. DOE]. The regulatory review and engagement processes are similarly constrained, often requiring significant effort and extensive manual verification. The scale of this challenge is exemplified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review of the NuScale application, which required over 250,000 staff hours and the evaluation of approximately two million pages of documentation [Bergman 2021]. The volume and complexity of information within nuclear licensing applications or authorization reviews demands innovative approaches to document generation and data management.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Standards, dissemination, and best practices in systems biology

In this study, the reproducibility of scientific research is crucial to the success of the scientific method. Here, we review the current best practices when publishing mechanistic models in systems biology. We recommend, where possible, to use software engineering strategies such as testing, verification, validation, documentation, versioning, iterative development, and continuous integration. In addition, adhering to the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable modeling principles allows other scientists to collaborate and build off of each other’s work. Existing standards such as Systems Biology Markup Language, CellML, or Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language can greatly improve the likelihood that a published model is reproducible, especially if such models are deposited in well-established model repositories. Where models are published in executable programming languages, the source code and their data should be published as open-source in public code repositories together with any documentation and testing code. For complex models, we recommend container-based solutions where any software dependencies and the run-time context can be easily replicated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring tides and binary parameters from gravitational wave data and eclipsing timings of detached white dwarf binaries

The discovery of the most compact detached white dwarf (WD) binary SDSS J065133.33+284423.3 has been discussed in terms of probing the tidal effects in WDs. This system is also a verification source for the space-based gravitational wave (GW) detector, eLISA, or the evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, which will observe short-period compact Galactic binaries with P {sub orb} ≲ 5 hr. We address the prospects of performing tidal studies using eLISA binaries by showing the fractional uncertainties in the orbital decay rate, f-dot , and the rate of that decay, f{sup ¨} expected from both the GW and electromagnetic (EM) data for some of the high-f binaries. We find that f-dot and f{sup ¨} can be measured using GW data only for the most massive WD binaries observed at high frequencies. From timing the eclipses for ∼10 yr, we find that f-dot can be known to ∼0.1% for J0651. We find that from GW data alone, measuring the effects of tides in binaries is (almost) impossible. We also investigate the improvement in the knowledge of the binary parameters by combining the GW amplitude and inclination with EM data with and without f-dot . In our previous work, we found that EM data on distance constrained the 2σ uncertainty in chirp mass to 15%-25% whereas adding f-dot reduces it to 0.11%. EM data on f-dot also constrain the 2σ uncertainty in distance to 35%-19%. EM data on primary mass constrain the secondary mass m {sub 2} to factors of two to ∼40% whereas adding f-dot reduces this to 25%. Finally, using single-line spectroscopic data constrains 2σ uncertainties in both the m {sub 2}, d to factors of two to ∼40%. Adding EM data on f-dot reduces these 2σ uncertainties to ≤25% and 6%-19%, respectively. Thus we find that EM measurements of f-dot and radial velocity are valuable in constraining eLISA binary parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Developing Simplified Models of Wind Turbine Blades

Simplified beam models provide a computationally efficient method for modeling the vibration of wind turbine blades. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the process of developing a simplified beam model of the CX-100 wind turbine blade, and quantifying its predictive capability. The motivation for this study is rooted in the development of NLBeam, a non-linear beam code developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to simulate the structural dynamics response of wind turbines using the geometrically exact beam theory in a coupled atmospheric hydrodynamics solver. Verification activities used to assess the credibility of NLBeam are investigated. Two models of the CX-100 blade are compared: (1) a three dimensional shell model and (2) a simplified one-dimensional beam model. Two sets of experimental modal data are utilized, one with the CX-100 blade in a fixed-free condition, and one with the CX-100 blade in a fixed-free condition, with large masses applied. By exploring these different configurations of the wind turbine blade, credibility can be established regarding the ability of the FE model to predict the response to different loading conditions. Through the use of test-analysis correlation, the experimental data can be compared to model output and an assessment is given of the predictive capability of the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Neutron Absorbers in the DOE Standardized SNF Canister

The goal of this evaluation was to evaluate different options for a neutron absorber in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standardized spent nuclear fuel (SNF) Canister. This was accomplished by taking the two most relevant criticality evaluations and replacing the advanced neutron absorber (ANA) basket material with borated stainless steel. This work was initiated, because alternative storage options for DOE SNF has become a priority for DOE. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is initiating activities to ensure the continued operation of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) by providing alternative and redundant storage options for spent ATR fuel. In addition, the DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM) has recently initiated studies to understand and improve the technical basis for long-term dry storage of aluminum clad SNF (e.g., ATR, High Flux Isotope Reactor [HFIR]) (Connolly 2018). While currently in the lab-scale phase, the next step involves validation and verification (V&V) of the lab-scale results. One method to perform V&V is to load aluminum-clad spent fuel in an instrumented DOE Standardized SNF Canister as a demonstration. In order to minimize the need for repackaging before disposal and to provide a representative environment in a demonstration, the fuel is planned to be loaded with an appropriate criticality control mechanism, such as neutron absorbing basket material. While ANA was originally selected as the basket material for ATR fuel in the Yucca Mountain Repository, it has never been produced on a large scale. Therefore, incorporating this material in the DOE Standardized SNF Canister as part of a near-term demonstration could be more challenging than moving forward with a commercially available material, such as borated stainless steel. Past evaluations eliminated borated stainless steel as a long-term neutron absorbing material, because it corroded too quickly and may not always remain in the waste package after degradation. This led to the invention and selection of ANA for use as the basket material in the DOE Standardized SNF Canister. After selecting ANA, new corrosion tests were performed on borated stainless steel using a different method for fabrication. This method of fabrication significantly improved the corrosion resistance properties of borated stainless steel, so much so that it out-performed ANA in corrosion testing. Researchers used the information obtained from these tests to select borated stainless steel as the neutron absorber in the Transportation, Aging, and Disposal Canister (TAD) designed for commercial SNF. This evaluation compares the criticality control of borated stainless steel to ANA. In every case and scenario, the calculated effective neutron multiplication factor (k eff ) using a borated stainless steel basket was lower than that using an ANA basket, though the borated stainless steel must be thicker due to corrosion effects over the regulatory time period. Although the borated stainless steel performed better than the ANA, it still required additional neutron-absorbing material, gadolinium shot, for the calculated k eff to fall below the upper critical limit of 0.93 in a few cases evaluated. More research using thicker baskets or inserts could be performed in an attempt to lower the k eff without the use of gadolinium shot. In addition, a reevaluation of the degraded ATR material used in the previous evaluations may prove that the original assumptions were over-conservative.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Experimental Flow Models for SSME Flowfield Characterization

Full scale flow models with extensive instrumentation were designed and manufactured to provide data necessary for flow field characterization in rocket engines of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) type. These models include accurate flow path geometries from the pre-burner outlet through the throat of the main combustion chamber. The turbines are simulated with static models designed to provide the correct pressure drop and swirl for specific power levels. The correct turbopump-hot gas manifold interfaces were designed into the flow models to permit parametric/integration studies for new turbine designs. These experimental flow models provide a vehicle for understanding the fluid dynamics associated with specific engine issues and also fill the more general need for establishing a more detailed fluid dynamic base to support development and verification of advanced math models.

Abel, L. C.↗

Methods for modeling contact dynamics of capture mechanisms

In this paper, an analytical approach for studying the contact dynamics of space-based vehicles during docking/berthing maneuvers is presented. Methods for modeling physical contact between docking/berthing mechanisms, examples of how these models have been used to evaluate the dynamic behavior of automated capture mechanisms, and experimental verification of predicted results are shown.

Williams, Philip J.↗

Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗

Finite Element Modeling of a Semi-Rigid Hybrid Mirror and a Highly Actuated Membrane Mirror as Candidates for the Next Generation Space Telescope

Advanced space telescopes, which will eventually replace the Hubble Space Telescope (HTS), will have apertures of 8 - 20 n. Primary mirrors of these dimensions will have to be foldable to fit into the space launcher. By necessity these mirrors will be extremely light weight and flexible and the historical approaches to mirror designs, where the mirror is made as rigid as possible to maintain figure and to serve as the anchor for the entire telescope, cannot be applied any longer. New design concepts and verifications will depend entirely on analytical methods to predict optical performance. Finite element modeling of the structural and thermal behavior of such mirrors is becoming the tool for advanced space mirror designs. This paper discusses some of the preliminary tasks and study results, which are currently the basis for the design studies of the Next Generation Space Telescope.

Craig, Larry↗

Applications of Materials Selection For Joining Composite/Alloy Piping Systems

A study in collaboration between investigators at Southern University and Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and NASA/MSFC is examining materials for modeling and analysis of heat-activated thermal coupling for joining composite to composite/alloy structures. The short-term objectives of this research are to develop a method for joining composite or alloy structures, as well as to study the effects of thermal stress on composite-to-alloy joints. This investigation will result in the selection of a suitable metallic alloy. Al-Li alloys have potential for this purpose in aerospace applications due to their excellent strength-to-weight ratio. The study of Al-Li and other alloys is of significant importance to this and other aerospace as well as offshore related interests. Further research will incorporate the use of computer aided design and rapid prototype hardware for conceptual design and verification of a potential composite piping delivery system.

Crosby, Karen E.↗

Structural Sizing of a Composite Transonic Truss-Braced Wing

Accurate finite element modeling (FEM) is a vital part of the modern aircraft design process. As aircraft become increasingly complex, the time-consuming nature of detailed FEM approaches comes at a significant cost to program timeline and budget. In an effort produce modeling efforts that are sufficiently accurate and minimally costly, a proposed FEM approach and optimization scheme for a composite aircraft is explored, including a discussion of the manufacturing constraints of a highly tailored composite panel design. A high-fidelity structural model of a transonic truss-braced wing (TTBW) is generated, and the components are sized by structural optimization to satisfy buckling and strength constraints while subjected to critical maneuver loads. The structural modeling approaches and sizing of a TTBW are discussed, including details for FEM approaches, verification of an approximated FEM approach, a sizing optimization using the optimization software LS-OPT, and a manufacturing trial of integrally stiffened composite panels conducted to explore the validity of highly tailored composites as a design consideration. The results of study discussed herein indicate that the proposed FEM approach is suitable for modeling composite-construction aircraft and for use in sizing optimization. Further efforts regarding integrally stiffened composite panels will indicate the suitability of this method for the integration of highly tailored composite panels into the design and optimization process, given the manufacturability of such panels as shown here.

Finite Element↗

Structural Sizing of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing

Accurate finite element modeling (FEM) is a vital part of the modern aircraft design process. As aircraft become increasingly complex, the time-consuming nature of detailed FEM approaches comes at a significant cost to program timeline and budget. In an effort produce modeling efforts that are sufficiently accurate and minimally costly, a proposed FEM approach and optimization scheme for a composite aircraft is explored, including a discussion of the manufacturing constraints of a highly tailored composite panel design. A high-fidelity structural model of a transonic truss-braced wing (TTBW) is generated, and the components are sized by structural optimization to satisfy buckling and strength constraints while subjected to critical maneuver loads. The structural modeling approaches and sizing of a TTBW are discussed, including details for FEM approaches, verification of an approximated FEM approach, a sizing optimization using the optimization software LS-OPT, and a manufacturing trial of integrally stiffened composite panels conducted to explore the validity of highly tailored composites as a design consideration. The results of study discussed herein indicate that the proposed FEM approach is suitable for modeling composite-construction aircraft and for use in sizing optimization. Further efforts regarding integrally stiffened composite panels will indicate the suitability of this method for the integration of highly tailored composite panels into the design and optimization process, given the manufacturability of such panels as shown here.

Finite Element↗

OECD RIA Benchmark Phase II - Towards a better understanding of the RIA fuel modelling

This paper deals with the second phase of the RIA (reactivity initiated accident) fuel rod code benchmark for water-cooled reactors that began in 2014. This second phase has been organized around 2 complementary activities: the first activity is to compare the results of different simulations on simplified cases in order to provide additional bases for understanding the differences in modelling of the concerned phenomena, while the second activity is focused on the assessment of the uncertainty of the results. The detailed specification and comparison of the results from the first activity is presented in this paper. Based on the Phase-I and Phase-II conclusions, some generic recommendations can be made. First, fuel and clad thermomechanical models (with the associated material properties) should be further improved and validated more extensively against a sound RIA database. Secondly, build-up of a comprehensive and robust database consisting of both separate-effect tests and integral tests should be pursued in the short term to reinforce the basis for assessment of both individual model and model integration into codes. Thirdly, an assessment of the uncertainty of fuel thermo-mechanics is of high interest (which is consistent with the second activity of this RIA benchmark Phase-II). Finally, as RIA fuel codes are more and more likely to be used for reactor accident studies, particularly for those involving safety analyses, the fuel rod failure criteria (generally used in such analyses) will have to be carefully justified and validated. The current RIA fuel failure criteria are mainly based on the fuel thermal variables and the verification is based on 'conservative' assumptions for the heat transfer conditions. As all codes give rather consistent evaluations of such variables, it appears possible, taking into account adequate provisions, to derive criteria based on thermal variables from experimental values or from an analytical approach. However, if in the future more mechanistic modelling is ever to be used to establish fuel-failure criteria based on mechanical variables, weaknesses in the validation of the codes identified above will have to be accounted for.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗