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DOE OSTI2024

Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations

The major goals for the Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) were to develop detailed numerical simulations of disruptive transients in tokamak experiments and to use them in theoretical studies of the thermal-quench (TQ) and current-quench (CQ) phases of disruption. The University of Wisconsin-Madison component of CTTS contributed relevant development for the NIMROD code (https://nimrodteam.org) and applied it to disruptions that involve global vertical displacement. Code-development contributions include boundary conditions that represent sheath effects which occur when tokamak plasma is in contact with the surrounding vessel wall during vertical displacement events (VDEs). We also implemented a reduced model of energetic runaway electrons (REs) to simulate the effect of these energetic electrons on the CQ phase of tokamak disruptions. Our computations of VDEs include 2D and 3D verification through benchmarks with two other widely used macroscale plasma simulation codes, M3D-C1 and JOREK. Over nonlinear evolution to the final termination of plasma current, the 2D simulation results on magnetic axis location, toroidal current, and halo current track each other well. With the 3D benchmark computation, all three codes found the same qualitative behavior of the asymmetric instabilities having increasing growth rate after contact with the wall, followed by nonlinear excitation of other toroidal harmonics. Our NIMROD computations for an idealized configuration show agreement with an analytical assessment by V. D. Pustovitov [Nucl. Fusion 55, 113032 (2015)] that the plasma and non-ideal wall remain in force-balance such that net forces only result from magnetic stresses over the outer surface of the wall. Our study of the influence of boundary conditions on VDEs shows that extended-MHD simulations of VDEs are sensitive to electron energy transport to the wall and that boundary conditions on flow are only significant to the extent that they influence the electron energy transport. Resistive-MHD NIMROD simulations of the tokamak discharges in the Madison Symmetric Torus show that magnetic perturbations of poloidal wavenumber m=3 lead to chaotic magnetic topology over the edge region, which helps deconfine energetic electrons. A second area of RE study shows that the coupled resistive MHD/reduced RE model reproduces the resistive-hose particle-beam instability. With respect to educational opportunities, this effort involved and supported four graduate students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and one postdoctoral associate. The results of this study have been disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, technical reports, and PhD dissertations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Magnetic field waves at Uranus

The proposed research efforts funded by the UDAP grant to the BRI involve the study of magnetic field waves associated with the Uranian bow shock. This is a collaborative venture bringing together investigators at the BRI, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In addition, other collaborations have been formed with investigators granted UDAP funds for similar studies and with investigators affiliated with other Voyager experiments. These investigations and the corresponding collaborations are included in the report. The proposed effort as originally conceived included an examination of waves downstream from the shock within the magnetosheath. However, the observations of unexpected complexity and diversity within the upstream region have necessitated that we confine our efforts to those observations recorded upstream of the bow shock on the inbound and outbound legs of the encounter by the Voyager 2 spacecraft.

Smith, Charles W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Suillus : an emerging model for the study of ectomycorrhizal ecology and evolution

Research on mycorrhizal symbiosis has been slowed by a lack of established study systems. To address this challenge, we have been developing Suillus, a widespread ecologically and economically relevant fungal genus primarily associated with the plant family Pinaceae, into a model system for studying ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations. Over the last decade, we have compiled extensive genomic resources, culture libraries, a phenotype database, and protocols for manipulating Suillus fungi with and without their tree partners. Our efforts have already resulted in a large number of publicly available genomes, transcriptomes, and respective annotations, as well as advances in our understanding of mycorrhizal partner specificity and host communication, fungal and plant nutrition, environmental adaptation, soil nutrient cycling, interspecific competition, and biological invasions. Here, we highlight the most significant recent findings enabled by Suillus, present a suite of protocols for working with the genus, and discuss how Suillus is emerging as an important model to elucidate the ecology and evolution of ECM interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Leptin promotes endothelial dysfunction in chronic kidney disease through AKT/GSK3β and β-catenin signals

Endothelial dysfunction (ED) is a well-recognized instigator of cardiovascular diseases and develops in chronic kidney disease (CKD) with high rate. Recent studies have implicated that leptin is associated with endothelial dysfunction. We investigated the relationship between leptin and markers of ED in CKD patients and how leptin contributed to endothelial damage. 140 CKD patients and 140 healthy subjects were studied. Serum leptin levels were significantly higher in CKD than in controls and displayed significantly positive association with the increase levels of sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 but negative correlation with flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) reduction in patients. Our in vitro study demonstrated that leptin induced overexpression of ICAM-1 and VCAM-1, led to f-actin reorganization and vinculin assembly, increased endothelial monolayer permeability for FITC-dextran, and accelerated endothelial cell migration; these changes were markedly reversed when the cells were transfected with AKT or β-catenin shRNA vectors. Notably, high leptin resulted in hyper-phosphorylation of AKT and GSK3β, along with nuclear accumulation of β-catenin. In conclusion, serum leptin was elevated in CKD patients and it might contribute to endothelial dysfunction by disarrangement of f-actin cytoskeleton via a mechanism involving the AKT/GSK3β and β-catenin pathway. - Highlights: • Serum leptin was elevated in CKD patients and it was associated with endothelial dysfunction. • Leptin induced endothelial dysfunction by remodeling cytoskeleton in HUVECs. • Leptin promoted endothelial dysfunction via a mechanism involving the AKT/GSK3β and β-catenin signals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

How long were older people expected to live with or without sarcopenia? Multistate modeling of a national cohort study

Objectives Sarcopenia is well known to be associated with mortality, but there is a lack of evidence on the estimates of life expectancy (LE) for sarcopenia in China. This study aims to estimate total life expectancy (TLE) and sarcopenia-specific LE in community-dwelling older Chinese adults with and without sarcopenia. Methods This study included participants aged 60 years and older who enrolled in the cohort in 2011 and 2013 and at least completed one follow-up until 2015 as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The criteria for defining sarcopenia were based on the guidelines established by the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia in 2019. TLE and sarcopenia-specific LE were estimated for the total population and subgroups using continuous-time multistate modeling. Results A total of 6,029 participants (49.2% women) with an average age of 68.4 (SD: 6.56) years were included in the study. The baseline prevalence of sarcopenia and possible sarcopenia was 19.5 and 44.9%, respectively. We observed that sarcopenia stages naturally deteriorated to worse stages (including death, by 24.4%) and returned to better stages (17.1%) during a median follow-up of 3.92 years (IQR: 2.00 ~ 4.00). The average TLE at the age of 60 was 20.9 [95% CI: 20.2–21.5] years (22.1 [95% CI: 19.6–24.6] for non-sarcopenic older adults, 20.9 [95% CI: 19.5–22.3] for possible sarcopenic, and 18.7 [95% CI: 16.4–21.1] for sarcopenic). Men, former and current smokers, and those living in northwest China had less TLE. Sarcopenic older adults, those with lower education, those who are unmarried, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and northwest China were expected to live fewer years with non-sarcopenia. Sarcopenic older people, men, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and southwest China were expected to live more years with sarcopenia. Discussion The results improved our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia and life expectancy. We suggested that targeted strategies should be considered in high-risk populations and underdeveloped regions to prevent sarcopenia and improve non-sarcopenic life years for the older population.

Ye, Bo↗

DOE OSTI2018

Maternal and paternal serum concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and the secondary sex ratio: A population-based preconception cohort study

Highlights: • Recent declines in the SSR in some countries may be attributed to exposure to POPs. • Maternal PCB 128 and paternal HCB were associated with a female excess. • Maternal mirex and paternal PCB 128 and p,p′-DDE were associated with a male excess. • These findings await corroboration given the exploratory design of this study. Recent declines in the secondary sex ratio (SSR), defined as the ratio of males to females at birth, in some industrialized countries may be attributed to exposure to environmental toxicants such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study aimed to evaluate the association of couples’ preconception exposure to POPs with the SSR. The study cohort comprised 235 couples who were enrolled in the Longitudinal Investigation of Fertility and the Environment (LIFE) Study between 2005 and 2009 prior to conception and prospectively followed through delivery of a singleton birth. Upon enrollment, couples’ serum concentrations (ng/g) were measured for 9 organochlorine pesticides, 1 polybrominated biphenyl, 10 polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and 36 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Birth outcome data including infant sex were collected upon delivery. Modified Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of a male birth for each chemical. Of the 56 POPs examined, maternal PCB 128 and paternal hexachlorobenzene were significantly associated with a female excess (RRs, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.60–0.94] and 0.81 [95% CI, 0.68–0.97] per 1 SD increase in log-transformed serum chemical concentrations, respectively), whereas maternal mirex and paternal PCB 128 and p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene were significantly associated with a male excess (RR range, 1.10–1.22 per 1 SD increase in log-transformed serum chemical concentrations). After adjusting for multiple comparisons, only maternal mirex remained significantly associated with the SSR. This exploratory study on multiple classes of POPs demonstrated no conclusive evidence on the association between parental preconception exposure to POPs and the SSR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Does Breast Density Increase the Risk of Re-excision for Women with Breast Cancer Having Breast-Conservation Therapy?

Background: Women with dense breasts may have less-accurate preoperative evaluation of extent of disease, potentially affecting the achievement of negative margins. The goal of this study is to examine the association between breast density and re-excision rates in women having breast-conserving surgery for invasive breast cancer. Patients and Methods: Women with stage I/II invasive breast cancer treated with breast-conserving surgery between 1/1/2014 and 10/31/2014 were included. Breast density was assessed by two radiologists. The association between breast density and re-excision was examined using logistic regression. Results: Seven hundred and one women were included. Overall, 106 (15.1%) women had at least one re-excision. Younger age at diagnosis was associated with increased breast density (p < 0.001). On univariable analysis, increased breast density was associated with significantly increased odds of re-excision (odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.83), as was multifocal disease, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive status, and extensive intraductal component (EIC) (all p < 0.05). On multivariable analysis, breast density remained significantly associated with increased odds of re-excision (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.00–1.86), as did multifocality and EIC. HER2 positive status was not significantly associated with re-excision on multivariable analysis. Conclusions: Women with dense breasts are more likely to need additional surgery (re-excision after breast-conserving surgery), but increased breast density did not adversely affect disease-free survival in our study. Our findings support the need for further study in developing techniques that can help decrease re-excisions for women with dense breasts who undergo breast-conserving surgery.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS1998

Studies of Protein Solution Properties Using Osmotic Pressure Measurements

Examination of the protein crystallization process involves investigation of the liquid and solid state and a protein's properties in these states. Liquid state studies such as protein self association in solution by light scattering methods or other methods have been used to examine a protein Is properties and therefore its crystallization process and conditions. Likewise can osmotic pressure data be used to examine protein properties and various published osmotic pressure studies were examined by us to correlate osmotic pressure to protein solution properties. The solution behavior of serum albumin, alpha - chymotrypsin, beta - lactoglobulin and ovalbumin was examined over a range of temperatures, pH values and different salt types and concentrations. Using virial expansion and a local composition model the non ideal solution behavior in form of the activity coefficients (thermodynamic) was described for the systems. This protein activity coefficient data was related to a protein's solubility behavior and this process and the results will be presented.

Agena, S.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Rab3IP interacts with SSX2 and enhances the invasiveness of gastric cancer cells

RAB3A interacting protein (Rab3IP) has been determined to be involved in cancer progression; however, its expression pattern and function in gastric cancer remain unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the association between Rab3IP and gastric cancer, in addition to its functional role in this disease. Overexpression of Rab3IP in gastric cancer was verified at both transcriptional and translational levels. Analysis of clinical data indicated its role as an independent risk factor for survival. Cellular studies showed that Rab3IP could induce an aggressive phenotype in gastric cancer cells and that its expression was correlated with markers of the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). In addition, we verified the co-expression of and interplay between Rab3IP and SSX2 during gastric cancer progression. Thus, these findings elucidated the central role of Rab3IP in inducing an invasive phenotype in gastric cancer cells, in addition to its involvement in EMT. Our results could be exploited for the clinical prognosis and treatment of this important disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Survey of Coronal Dimmings and EIT Wave Transients

We present the results of a comprehensive catalog of EIT wave transients and coronal dimmings. We will compiled a set of more than 170 events, and we present strong evidence for the association of the co-development of coronal dimmings and EIT waves. Both limb and disk events are included in this study. We also include the speeds, locations, and associated flare timing in this study.

Thompson, Barbara J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical composition, coordination, and stability of Ca–organic associations in the presence of dissolving calcite

Environmental biotic and abiotic factors and soil physical, mineralogical, and chemical properties control the chemical composition of soil organic matter (SOM). Particularly, soil mineralogy and the presence of multivalent cations affect SOM labile fraction composition, stability, and environmental persistence. The persistence of SOM in aridic or limestone deposit derived soils, i.e., calcareous soils, has been partially attributed to SOM stabilization through adsorption or inclusion into the calcite mineral structure. Recently, however, it was shown that Ca(aq) released during calcite dissolution formed aqueous Ca–organic associations with OM components, which were unbound to mineral surface sites. This study investigates the structure, composition, and coordination of these associations by characterizing lyophilized Ca–organic containing solutions with spectromicroscopy [Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM)] and with a nanoimaging chemical probe [Infrared scattering-Scanning Nearfield Optical Microscopy (IR s-SNOM)]. Chemical stability of Ca–organic associations is furthermore determined with pyrolysis mass spectrometry analysis. The results demonstrate that Ca–organic associations are formed in the presence of dissolving calcite and OM components relevant to soil chemistry, i.e., lignin and amino acids. This study further reveals a spatial homogeneity of solution-derived (bi) carbonate in Ca–organic associations indicating for the first time that an inorganic anion, such as (bi)carbonate, may be part of these associations. Most likely, Ca ions are bound to both the (bi)carbonate and the organic components. These Ca (bi)carbonate–organic associations seem to have greater chemical stability than the pristine organic mixtures and, possibly, a higher environmental stability and reduced mineralization rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

SAPAP4 Deletion Causes Synaptic Dysfunction in the nucleus accumbens

Highlights: • SAPAP4 is a postsynaptic scaffolding protein at excitatory synapses. • SAPAP4−/− mice display decreased cocaine-induced locomotor activity. • The spine density of medium spiny neurons in the nucleus accumbens shell is lower in SAPAP4−/− mice than in wild-type mice. • SAPAP4 plays a critical role in the synaptic function of the nucleus accumbens. SAP90/PSD95-associated proteins (SAPAPs) are one type of scaffold protein in the postsynaptic density (PSD). Scaffold proteins play an important role in synaptic function. Recently, many studies have shown that mutations associated with scaffold proteins cause dysfunction in neuronal circuitry and in behavior. SAPAP4, as a protein in the SAPAP family, may have an impact on synaptic functions and on behaviors. To test this hypothesis, mice with a genetic deletion of SAPAP4 were used in our study. SAPAP4−/− mice displayed decreased cocaine sensitivity behavior after an acute injection of 20 mg/kg cocaine. We also found that the spine density of medium spiny neurons (MSNs) in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) shell was reduced in SAPAP4−/− mice. Furthermore, SAPAP4−/− mice displayed altered synaptic transmission and a decreased frequency and amplitude of miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents (mEPSCs) in the NAc. Our findings demonstrate that SAPAP4 plays a critical role in cocaine-related behavior and in the synaptic function of the NAc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Warming is Associated With More Encoded Antimicrobial Resistance Genes and Transcriptions Within Five Drug Classes in Soil Bacteria: A Case Study and Synthesis

ABSTRACT The effect of warming on anti‐microbial resistance (AMR) genes in the environment has critical implications for public health but is little studied. We collected published soil bacterial genomes from the BV‐BRC database and tested the correlation between reported optimal growth temperature and the number of encoded AMR genes. Furthermore, we tested the relationship between temperature and AMR gene transcription in a natural ecosystem by analysing soil transcriptomes from a warming manipulation experiment in an Alaskan boreal forest. We hypothesised that there is a positive relationship between warming and AMR prevalence in gene content in bacterial genomes and transcriptomic sequences, and that this effect would vary by drug class. Regarding the bacterial genomes, we found a positive relationship between the fraction of encoded AMR genes and the reported optimal temperature of soil bacteria. The drug classes tetracycline and lincosamide/macrolide/streptogramin had the strongest positive relationship with reported optimal temperature. For the case study in a natural ecosystem, we found 61 significantly upregulated AMR gene‐associated transcripts spanning eight drug classes in warmed plots. In the Alaskan soil samples, we found that warming elicited the strongest positive effect on transcripts targeting lincosamide/streptogramin, beta‐lactam and phenicol/quinolone antibiotics. Overall, higher temperatures were linked to AMR gene prevalence.

Hacopian, Melanie T. [Department of Ecology and Ev↗

DOE OSTI2019

Association Between Preoperative Muscle Mass and Intraoperative Bacterial Translocation in Patients Undergoing Hepatectomy, Pancreatoduodenectomy, and Esophagectomy

Purpose: This study investigated the correlation between the fecal profile and muscle mass, which has not been elucidated before. Methods: This study included patients who underwent hepatectomy, pancreatoduodenectomy, or esophagectomy and had fecal samples collected preoperatively and mesenteric lymph nodes (MLNs) harvested intraoperatively to determine the fecal profile and presence of bacteria in the MLNs. Total psoas area (TPA) was measured at the third lumbar vertebra using preoperative computed tomography images. TPA was standardized by body surface area (BSA) using the following equation: standardized TPA (mm{sup 2}/m{sup 2}) (stTPA) = TPA (mm{sup 2})/BSA (m{sup 2}). The fecal concentrations of representative microorganisms and organic acids also were measured. Results: A total of 127 patients undergoing hepatectomy (n = 48), pancreatoduodenectomy (n = 44), and esophagectomy (n = 35) were included. The fecal levels of predominant obligate anaerobes showed a positive correlation with stTPA, whereas that of pathogenic microorganisms showed a negative correlation with stTPA. The fecal concentrations of total short chain fatty acids (the sum of acetic acid, propionic acid, and butyric acid) also showed a positive correlation with stTPA. The stTPA was significantly lower in patients with positive microorganisms in the MLNs (patients with bacterial translocation) compared to those without microorganisms in the MLNs (p = 0.047). Conclusions: This study was the first to demonstrate the association between muscle mass and the fecal profile, as well as their association with bacterial translocation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS1999

Postural Regulation of Muscle Sympathetic Nerve Activity Before and After Simulated and Actual Microgravity Deconditioning

The etiology of orthostatic intolerance after spaceflight is multifaceted. Morphological adaptations, in particular cardiac atrophy, are likely to magnify the decrease in stroke volume that occurs with reductions in cardiac filling pressure when standing. Neural adaptations may be inferred as well, as reductions in carotid-cardiac baroreflex responsiveness have been reported following bedrest deconditioning and spaceflight. Neural control of vascular resistance has not been studied directly when orthostatic intolerance is florid in the hours following spaceflight. However, the increases in systemic vascular resistance and plasma catecholamines during orthostatic stress are inappropriately low in orthostatically intolerant subjects following spaceflight, suggesting that deficits in the regulation of vascular resistance may be associated with hypoadrenergic function. The studies described in this abstract were designed to test this hypothesis.

Pawelczyk, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Johnson Space Center Experimental Impact Lab: Contributions Toward Understanding the Evolution of the Solar System

Impact is the most common and only weathering phenomenon affecting all the planetary bodies (e.g., planets, satellites, asteroids, comets, etc.) in the solar system. NASA Johnson Space Center s Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL) includes three accelerators that are used in support of research into the effects of impact on the formation and evolution of the solar system. They permit researchers to study a wide variety of phenomena associated with high-velocity impacts into a wide range of geologic targets and materials relevant to astrobiological studies. By studying these processes, researchers can investigate the histories and evolution of planetary bodies and the solar system as a whole. While the majority of research conducted in the EIL addresses questions involving planetary impacts, work involving spacecraft components has been performed on occasion. An example of this is the aerogel collector material flown on the Stardust spacecraft that traveled to Comet Wild-2. This capture medium was tested and flight qualified using the 5 mm Light-Gas Gun located in the EIL.

See, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗