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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Multiple environment single system quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (MESS-QM/MM) calculations. 1. Estimation of polarization energies

In combined quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) free energy calculations, it is often advantageous to have a frozen geometry for the quantum mechanical (QM) region. For such multiple-environment single-system (MESS) cases, two schemes are proposed here for estimating the polarization energy: the first scheme, termed MESS-E, involves a Roothaan step extrapolation of the self-consistent field (SCF) energy; whereas the other scheme, termed MESS-H, employs a Newton–Raphson correction using an approximate inverse electronic Hessian of the QM region (which is constructed only once). Both schemes are extremely efficient, because the expensive Fock updates and SCF iterations in standard QM/MM calculations are completely avoided at each configuration. Here, they produce reasonably accurate QM/MM polarization energies: MESS-E can predict the polarization energy within 0.25 kcal/mol in terms of the mean signed error for two of our test cases, solvated methanol and solvated β-alanine, using the M06-2X or ωB97X-D functionals; MESS-H can reproduce the polarization energy within 0.2 kcal/mol for these two cases and for the oxyluciferin–luciferase complex, if the approximate inverse electronic Hessians are constructed with sufficient accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ewald Summation Approach to Potential Models of Aqueous Electrolytes Involving Gaussian Charges and Induced Dipoles: Formal and Simulation Results

We present a detailed derivation of the complete set of expressions required for the implementation of an Ewald summation approach to handle the long-range electrostatic interactions of polar and ionic model systems involving Gaussian charges and induced dipole moments with a particular application to the isobaricisothermal molecular dynamics simulation of our Gaussian Charge Polarizable (GCP) water model and its extension to aqueous electrolytes solutions. The set comprises the individual components of the potential energy, electrostatic potential, electrostatic field and gradient, the electrostatic force and the corresponding virial. Moreover, we show how the derived expressions converge to known point-based electrostatic counterparts when the parameters, defining the Gaussian charge and induced-dipole distributions, are extrapolated to their limiting point values. Finally, we illustrate the Ewald implementation against the current reaction field approach by isothermal-isobaric molecular dynamics of ambient GCP water for which we compared the outcomes of the thermodynamic, microstructural, and polarization behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Regional Sources of Nitrous Oxide over the United States: Seasonal Variation and Spatial Distribution

This paper presents top-down constraints on the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) emissions over the central United States. We analyze data from tall towers in 2004 and 2008 using a high resolution Lagrangian particle dispersion model paired with both geostatistical and Bayesian inversions. Our results indicate peak N{sub 2}O emissions in June with a strong seasonal cycle. The spatial distribution of sources closely mirrors data on fertilizer application with particularly large N{sub 2}O sources over the US Cornbelt. Existing inventories for N{sub 2}O predict emissions that differ substantially from the inverse model results in both seasonal cycle and magnitude. We estimate a total annual N{sub 2}O budget over the central US of 0.9-1.2 TgN/yr and an extrapolated budget for the entire US and Canada of 2.1-2.6 TgN/yr. By this estimate, the US and Canada account for 12-15% of the total global N{sub 2}O source or 32-39% of the global anthropogenic source as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Time-Dependent Consolidation in Porous Geomaterials at In Situ Conditions of Temperature and Pressure

Analysis of quartz sandstones shows that grain-scale crushing (fracture and rearrangement) and associated sealing of fractures contribute significantly to consolidation. The crushing strength (P*) for granular material is defined by laboratory experiments conducted at strain rates of 10 -4 to 10 -5 s -1 and room temperature. Based on experiments, many sandstones would require burial depths in excess of the actual maximum burial depth to create observed microstructure and density. In this paper, we use experiments and soil mechanics principles to determine rate laws for brittle consolidation of fine-grained quartz sand to better estimate in situ failure conditions of porous geomaterials. Experiments were conducted on St. Peter sand utilizing different isostatic consolidation and creep load paths at temperatures to 200 °C and at strain rates of 10 -4 to 10 -10 s -1 . Experiment results are consistent with observed rate dependence of consolidation in soils, and P* for sand can be identified by the change in the dependence of consolidation rate with stress, allowing the extrapolation of P* determined in the laboratory to geologic rates and temperatures. Additionally, normalized P* values can be described by a polynomial function to quantify temperature, stress, and strain-rate relationships for the consolidation of porous geomaterials by subcritical cracking. At geologic loading rates, P* for fine-grained quartz sand is achieved within ~3-km burial depth, and thus, shear-enhanced compaction under nonisostatic stress can occur at even shallower depths. Finally, these results demonstrate that time and temperature effects must be considered for predicting the brittle consolidation of sediments in depositional basins, petroleum reservoirs, and engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Equations of State and Anisotropy of Fe-Ni-Si Alloys

We present powder X–ray diffraction data on body centered cubic (bcc)– and hexagonal close packed (hcp)–structured Fe 0.91 Ni 0.09 and Fe 0.8 Ni 0.1 Si 0.1 at 300 K up to 167 and 175 GPa, respectively. The alloys were loaded with tungsten powder as a pressure calibrant and helium as a pressure transmitting medium into diamond anvil cells, and their equations of state and axial ratios were measured with high statistical quality. These equations of state are combined with thermal parameters from previous reports to improve the extrapolation of the density, adiabatic bulk modulus, and bulk sound speed to the pressures and temperatures of Earth's inner core. We propagate uncertainties and place constraints on the composition of Earth's inner core by combining these results with available data on light–element alloys of iron and seismic observations. For example, the addition of 4.3 to 5.3 wt% silicon to Fe 0.95 Ni 0.05 alone can explain geophysical observations of the inner core boundary, as can up to 7.5 wt% sulfur with negligible amounts of silicon and oxygen. Our findings favor an inner core with less than ~2 wt% oxygen and less than 1 wt% carbon, although uncertainties in electronic and anharmonic contributions to the equations of state may shift these values. The compositional space widens toward the center of the Earth, considering inner core seismic gradients. Here, we demonstrate that hcp–Fe 0.91 Ni 0.09 and hcp–Fe 0.8 Ni 0.1 Si 0.1 have measurably greater c/a axial ratios than those of hcp–Fe over the measured pressure range. Here, we further investigate the relationship between the axial ratios, their pressure derivatives, and elastic anisotropy of hcp–structured materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Temperature- and Humidity-Dependent Phase States of Secondary Organic Aerosols

Viscosity of monoterpene-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) as a function of temperature and relative humidity (RH), and dry SOA glass transition temperatures are reported. Viscosity was measured using coalescence time scales of synthesized 100 nm dimers. Dry temperature-dependent SOA viscosity was similar to that of citric acid, coal tar pitch, and sorbitol. The temperature where dry viscosity was 10 6 Pa·s varied between 14 and 36;°C and extrapolated glass transition varied between -10 and 20 °C (±10 °C). Mass fragment f 44 obtained with an Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor was anticorrelated with viscosity. Viscosity of humidified Δ 3 -carene and α-pinene SOAs exceeded 10 6 Pa·s for all subsaturated RHs at temperatures <0 and –5 °C, respectively. Steep viscosity isopleths at 10 6 Pa·s were traced for these across (temperature, RH) conditions ranging from (approximately -5 °C, 100%) and (approximately 36 °C, 0%). Finally, differences in composition and thus hygroscopicity can shift humidified viscosity isopleths for SOAs at cold tropospheric temperatures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical Representations of Marine Ice-Nucleating Particles in Remote Marine Environments Evaluated Against Observations

The clouds over remote oceans are often comprised of supercooled liquid droplets, but global models struggle to represent the complex processes that control ice formation in these clouds. One poorly understood, but critical, aspect controlling the liquid-ice partitioning in these clouds is the abundance of particles that catalyze ice crystal formation, or ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Observations show that INPs are extremely rare in remote marine environments and are dominated by an oceanic source. However, current global models do not account for these uniquely low INP concentrations and their marine source. In this work, we used observations of INPs from two previous field campaigns to evaluate INP concentrations estimated from a global climate model that incorporates particles from sea salt, marine organic matter, and mineral dust. Our results constitute an early evaluation of the potential of present-day global atmospheric models to successfully predict INP concentrations in the lowest atmospheric level that feeds clouds over the ocean. Extrapolating our approach to higher altitudes, the model suggests mineral/soil dust particles from long-range transport may also be a critical INP source for marine clouds.

2017 Office of Science Graduate Student Research (↗

Short-Term Precipitation Forecast Based on the PERSIANN System and LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting is important for flood forecasting, early flood warning, and natural hazard management. This study proposes a precipitation forecast model by extrapolating Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) using advanced Deep Neural Networks, and applying the forecasted CTBT into an effective rainfall retrieval algorithm to obtain the Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (0–6 hr). To achieve such tasks, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), respectively. The precipitation forecasts obtained from our proposed framework, (i.e., LSTM combined with PERSIANN) are compared with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Persistency method, and Farneback optical flow each combined with PERSIANN algorithm and the numerical model results from the first version of Rapid Refresh (RAPv1.0) over three regions in the United States, including the states of Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida. We report our experiments indicate better statistics, such as correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, for the CTBT forecasts from the proposed LSTM compared to the RNN, Persistency, and the Farneback method. The precipitation forecasts from the proposed LSTM and PERSIANN framework has demonstrated better statistics compared to the RAPv1.0 numerical forecasts and PERSIANN estimations from RNN, Persistency, and Farneback projections in terms of Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Critical Success Index, correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error, especially in predicting the convective rainfalls. The proposed method shows superior capabilities in short-term forecasting over compared methods, and has the potential to be implemented globally as an alternative short-term forecast product.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Temperature Dependence of Plasmaspheric Ion Composition

We assess a database of Dynamics Explorer-1 (DE-1) Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer densities and temperatures to yield the first explicit measure of how cold ion concentration depends on temperature. We discover that cold H + and He + concentrations have very weak dependence on temperature, but cold O+ ion concentration increases steeply as these ions become warmer. We exhibit how this result can aid in analyzing composition data from other satellites without spacecraft potential mitigation, by applying the result to an example using data from the Van Allen Probes mission. Measurement of light ion concentrations above 1 electron volt (eV) are a reasonable proxy for the concentrations of colder (eV) ions. Warmer O + ion concentrations may be extrapolated to colder temperatures using our fit to the statistical distribution versus temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reply to Comment by Peterie Et Al. on “Accelerated Fill‐Up of the Arbuckle Group Aquifer and Links to U.S. Midcontinent Seismicity”

Abstract Peterie et al. question one observation in our paper: associating pressure increases to injection volumes at distances of up to 25 km from an injection well. In this reply, we show that the comment misunderstands our analysis and the evidence that led to this conclusion. We also show that gauge‐depth‐corrected pressures, used by the authors to produce statewide pressure maps, are discrepant with the static fluid level data, provided in our original compilation and analysis. The discrepancies are a result of the pressure correction method employed, which naïvely substitutes formation pressure for bottomhole pressure to calculate wellbore fluid density. Their linearly interpolated pressure maps, based on sparse data, contain interpolation and extrapolation artifacts that contradict injection trends in the state, the Theis solution, and the superposition principle. We reiterate that pressure and static fluid level increases in Class I wells existed prior to 2013, most notably in central Kansas, where recent earthquakes are cited in the comment as evidence of a pressure plume emanating from the Kansas‐Oklahoma border, 90 km away. We show that the space‐time pattern of seismicity in this area is inconsistent with a northward propagating pressure plume and, instead, seismicity appears to be centered on and near a cluster of high‐rate injection wells, two of which are among the highest rate wells in the state. These observations, along with recent M4 + earthquakes during continued decreases in wastewater injection in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, question the usefulness of the comment for understanding and managing societally significant earthquakes.

Ansari, Esmail↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year -1 (1Tg = 10 12 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH 4 year -1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of -34 to -46 Tg CH 4 year -1 , we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH 4 year -1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High–Pressure Deformation of Iron–Nickel–Silicon Alloys and Implications for Earth’s Inner Core

Earth’s inner core exhibits strong seismic anisotropy, often attributed to the alignment of hexagonal close-packed iron (hcp-Fe) alloy crystallites with the Earth’s poles. How this alignment developed depends on material properties of the alloy and is important to our understanding of the core’s crystallization history and active geodynamical forcing. Previous studies suggested that hcp-Fe is weak under deep Earth conditions but did not investigate the effects of the lighter elements known to be part of the inner core alloy. Here, we present results from radial X-ray diffraction experiments in a diamond anvil cell that constrain the strength and deformation properties of iron-nickel-silicon (Fe–Ni–Si) alloys up to 60 GPa. We also show the results of laser heating to 1650 K to evaluate the effect of temperature. Observed alloy textures suggest different relative activities of the various hcp deformation mechanisms compared to pure Fe, but these textures could still account for the theorized polar alignment. Fe–Ni–Si alloys are mechanically stronger than Fe and Fe–Ni; extrapolated to inner core conditions, Si-bearing alloys may be more than an order of magnitude stronger. Furthermore, this enhanced strength proportionally reduces the effectivity of dislocation creep as a deformation mechanism, which may suggest that texture developed during crystallization rather than as the result of postsolidification plastic flow.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Frictional and Lithological Controls on Shallow Slow Slip at the Northern Hikurangi Margin

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been identified at subduction zones globally as an important link in the continuum between elastodynamic ruptures and stable creep. The northern Hikurangi margin is home to shallow SSEs which propagate to within 2 km of the seafloor and possibly to the trench, providing insights into the physical conditions conducive to SSE behavior. We report on a suite of friction experiments performed on protolith material entering the SSE source region at the Hikurangi margin, collected during the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 375. We performed velocity stepping and slide-hold-slide experiments over a range of fault slip rates, from plate rate (5 cm/yr or 1.6 × 10 –9 m/s) to ~1 mm/s (10 –3 m/s) and quantified the frictional velocity dependence and healing rates for a range of lithologies atdifferent stresses. The frictional velocity dependence (a-b) and critical slip distance DC increase with fault slip rate in our experiments. We observe atransition from velocity weakening to strengthening at slip rates of ~0.3 µm/s. This velocity dependence of DC could be due to a combination of dilatant strengthening and a widening of the active shear zone at higher slip rates. We document low healing rates in the clay-rich volcaniclastic conglomerates, which lie above the incoming plate basement at least locally, and relatively higher healing rates in the chalk lithology. Finally, our experimental constraints on healing rates in different input lithologies extrapolated to timescales of 1–10 years are consistent with the geodetically inferred low stress drops and healing rates characteristic of the Hikurangi SSEs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experimental Investigation of Mercury's Magma Ocean Viscosity: Implications for the Formation of Mercury's Cumulate Mantle, Its Subsequent Dynamic Evolution, and Crustal Petrogenesis

Mercury has a compositionally heterogeneous surface that was produced by different periods of igneous activity during Mercury’s history, perhaps suggesting heterogeneous mantle sources. Furthermore, understanding the structure of Mercury’s mantle formed during the planet’s magma ocean stage could help in developing a petrologic model for Mercury, and thus, its dynamic history in the context of crustal petrogenesis. We present results of falling sphere viscometry experiments on late stage Mercurian magma ocean analogue compositions. Owing to the presence of sulfur on the surface of Mercury, two compositions were tested, one with sulfur and one without. The liquids have viscosities of 0.6-3.9 (sulfur-bearing) and 0.6-10.9 Pa·s (sulfur-free), similar to an andesite at the tested experimental conditions (1.4-6.2 GPa, 1600-2000°C). We present new viscosity models that enable extrapolation beyond the experimental conditions and evaluate grain growth and the potential for crystal entrainment in a cooling, convecting magma ocean. We consider scenarios with and without a graphite flotation crust, which suggests two possible endmember outcomes for Mercury’s mantle structure. With a graphite flotation crust, crystallization of the mantle would be fractional with negatively buoyant minerals sinking to form a stratified cumulate pile according to the crystallization sequence. Without a flotation crust, crystals would largely remain entrained in the convecting liquid during solidification, producing a homogeneous mantle. In the context of these endmember models, the chemically heterogeneous surface could result from dynamical stirring or mixing of a mantle that was initially compositionally stratified, or from different extents of melting of a homogeneous mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Shock Compression of Fluorapatite to 120 GPa

Apatite is a phosphate mineral relevant to shock metamorphism in planetary materials. Here, we report on the response of natural fluorapatite from Durango, Mexico under shock wave loading between 14.5 and 119.5 GPa. Wave profile measurements were obtained in plate-impact experiments conducted on [0001]-oriented fluorapatite single crystals. To GPa peak stresses, we observed a two-wave structure indicating an elastic-inelastic response with elastic wave amplitudes of 10.5–13.1 GPa. Between 39.1 and 62.1 GPa, a complex wave structure was observed involving the propagation of three waves. At and above 73.7 GPa, only a single shock wave was observed. The data above 73.7 GPa provided the following linear shock velocity – particle velocity relationship: U s = 6.5(2) + 0.78(6) u p , (mm/μs). Above 80 GPa, the densities in the shocked state exceed both the extrapolated 300-K density of fluorapatite and the predicted 300-K density for a mixture of the high-pressure assemblage, tuite and CaF 2 . Furthermore, this result indicates that fluorapatite undergoes a transition to a denser structure under shock loading at these conditions. The shock response of fluorapatite is observed to be similar to enstatite but stiffer than quartz and albite at the stresses examined in this work.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗