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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Parameter Estimation with Physics-based Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate estimation of dynamic parameters of gen-erators is crucial to building a reliable model for dynamical studies and reliable operation of the power system. This paper develops a physics-based neural ordinary differential equations (ODE) approach to learn the parameters of generator dynamic model using phasor measurement units (PMU) data. We design a physics-based neural network to represent the swing equations of the power system dynamics. A loss function is defined as the difference between dynamic simulation results from the physics-based neural networks and pseudo PMU measurements. The parameters of generator dynamic model are iteratively updated using the neural ODEs and the adjoint method. By exploiting the mini-batch scheme in neural ODE training, the parameter estimation performance is significantly improved. Numerical study results on a 3-machine 9-bus system show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline method in both computation time and dynamic parameter estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Energy optimization for a wind DFIG with flywheel energy storage

The type of distributed generation unit that is the subject of this paper relates to renewable energy sources, especially wind power. The wind generator used is based on a double fed induction Generator (DFIG). The stator of the DFIG is connected directly to the network and the rotor is connected to the network through the power converter with three levels. The objective of this work is to study the association a Flywheel Energy Storage System (FESS) in wind generator. This system is used to improve the quality of electricity provided by wind generator. It is composed of a flywheel; an induction machine (IM) and a power electronic converter. A maximum power tracking technique « Maximum Power Point Tracking » (MPPT) and a strategy for controlling the pitch angle is presented. The model of the complete system is developed in Matlab/Simulink environment / to analyze the results from simulation the integration of wind chain to networks.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global relationships between crop diversity and nutritional stability

Nutritional stability – a food system’s capacity to provide sufficient nutrients despite disturbance – is an important, yet challenging to measure outcome of diversified agriculture. Using 55 years of data across 184 countries, we assemble 22,000 bipartite crop-nutrient networks to quantify nutritional stability by simulating crop and nutrient loss in a country, and assess its relationship to crop diversity across regions, over time and between imports versus in country production. We find a positive, saturating relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability across countries, but also show that over time nutritional stability remained stagnant or decreased in all regions except Asia. These results are attributable to diminishing returns on crop diversity, with recent gains in crop diversity among crops with fewer nutrients, or with nutrients already in a country’s food system. Finally, imports are positively associated with crop diversity and nutritional stability, indicating that many countries’ nutritional stability is market exposed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Solvation and Acidity of Carboxylic Acids Using an Ab Initio Deep Neural Network Potential

Formic and acetic acid constitute the simplest of carboxylic acids, yet they exhibit fascinating chemistry in the condensed phase such as proton transfer and dimerization. The go-to method of choice for modeling these rare events have been accurate but expensive ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations. Here, we present a deep neural network potential trained using accurate ab-initio data that can be used in tandem with enhanced-sampling methods to perform an efficient exploration of the free-energy surface of aqueous solutions of weak carboxylic acids. In particular, we show that our model captures proton dissociation and provides a good estimate of the pK a , as well as the dimerization of formic and acetic acid. This provides a suitable starting point for applications in different research areas where computational efficiency coupled with the accuracy of ab-initio methods is required.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms

Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

CO 3+1 network formation in ultra-high pressure carbonate liquids

Carbonate liquids are an important class of molten salts, not just for industrial applications, but also in geological processes. Carbonates are generally expected to be simple liquids, in terms of ionic interactions between the molecular carbonate anions and metal cations, and therefore relatively structureless compared to more “polymerized” silicate melts. But there is increasing evidence from phase relations, metal solubility, glass spectroscopy and simulations to suggest the emergence of carbonate “networks” at length scales longer than the component molecular anions. The stability of these emergent structures are known to be sensitive to temperature, but are also predicted to be favoured by pressure. This is important as a recent study suggests that subducted surface carbonate may melt near the Earth’s transition zone (~44 km), representing a barrier to the deep carbon cycle depending on the buoyancy and viscosity of these liquids. In this study we demonstrate a major advance in our understanding of carbonate liquids by combining simulations and high pressure measurements on a carbonate glass, (K 2 CO 3 -MgCO 3 ) to pressures in excess of 40 GPa, far higher than any previous in situ study. We show the clear formation of extended low-dimensional carbonate networks of close CO 3 2– pairs and the emergence of a “three plus one” local coordination environment, producing an unexpected increase in viscosity with pressure. Although carbonate melts may still be buoyant in the lower mantle, an increased viscosity by at least three orders of magnitude will restrict the upward mobility, possibly resulting in entrainment by the down-going slab.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of the Coral Microbiome: the Influence of Temperature and Microbial Network

Host-associated microbial communities are shaped by extrinsic and intrinsic factors to the holobiont organism. Environmental factors and microbe-microbe interactions act simultaneously on the microbial community structure, making the microbiome dynamics challenging to predict. The coral microbiome is essential to the health of coral reefs and sensitive to environmental changes. Here, we develop a dynamic model to determine the microbial community structure associated with the surface mucus layer (SML) of corals using temperature as an extrinsic factor and microbial network as an intrinsic factor. The model was validated by comparing the predicted relative abundances of microbial taxa to the relative abundances of microbial taxa from the sample data. The SML microbiome from Pseudodiploria strigosa was collected across reef zones in Bermuda, where inner and outer reefs are exposed to distinct thermal profiles. A shotgun metagenomics approach was used to describe the taxonomic composition and the microbial network of the coral SML microbiome. By simulating the annual temperature fluctuations at each reef zone, the model output is statistically identical to the observed data. The model was further applied to six scenarios that combined different profiles of temperature and microbial network to investigate the influence of each of these two factors on the model accuracy. The SML microbiome was best predicted by model scenarios with the temperature profile that was closest to the local thermal environment, regardless of the microbial network profile. Our model shows that the SML microbiome of P. strigosa in Bermuda is primarily structured by seasonal fluctuations in temperature at a reef scale, while the microbial network is a secondary driver. Coral microbiome dysbiosis (i.e., shifts in the microbial community structure or complete loss of microbial symbionts) caused by environmental changes is a key player in the decline of coral health worldwide. Multiple factors in the water column and the surrounding biological community influence the dynamics of the coral microbiome. However, by including only temperature as an external factor, our model proved to be successful in describing the microbial community associated with the surface mucus layer (SML) of the coral P. strigosa. The dynamic model developed and validated in this study is a potential tool to predict the coral microbiome under different temperature conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Production and Characterization of Additively Manufactured Radiator Panels with Integral Branching Heat Pipes for High-Temperature Heat Rejection

Emerging concepts for fission surface power and nuclear electric propulsion necessitate lightweight, mechanically robust, and thermally efficient heat rejection radiators. State-of-the-art intermediate-temperature (~400 K) composite radiator assemblies have been developed based on titanium-water heat pipes bonded to metal, graphite, and carbon-fiber-based panels. NASA has identified a need for new radiator concepts that can operate at even higher temperatures (500 – 600 K), minimize thermal resistances and thermal stress failures at bond interfaces, and approach areal densities of 2 – 3 kg m -2 . To meet these needs, our team is developing additively manufactured (AM) radiator panels with integral branching wicking heat pipe networks. Water is selected as the working fluid for this temperature range. Based on simulations and thermal vacuum experiments, these branching embedded heat pipe networks can efficiently distribute heat over panels for finned surface efficiencies of η f >70% at T H = 500 K input heat. This paper first presents laser powder-bed fusion AM strategies to produce embedded porous structures for wicking heat pipes in Inconel 718 and titanium alloys (commercially pure and Ti-6Al-4V alloys). Post-build chemical and thermal treatments are described that yield hydrophilic wicking surfaces for operation with water. Transient rate-of-rise experiments with water and acetone are reported that yield estimates for AM wick porosity (ϵ), permeability (K), and effective pore radius (r pore ). Based on the wick characterization results, small prototype radiator panels (75 × 125 mm) with integrated heat pipe networks were manufactured. Heat rejection performance data are presented from cold thermal vacuum testing, with heat input temperatures up to ~510 K. Future efforts will focus on improving heat pipe performance, optimizing radiator mass, and evaluating larger panels to assess scalability.

thermal management↗
NASA NTRS2024

Production and Characterization of Additively Manufactured Radiator Panels With Integral Branching Heat Pipes for High-Temperature Heat Rejection

Emerging concepts for fission surface power and nuclear electric propulsion necessitate lightweight, mechanically robust, and thermally efficient heat rejection radiators. State-of-the-art intermediate-temperature (~400 K) composite radiator assemblies have been developed based on titanium-water heat pipes bonded to metal, graphite, and carbon-fiber-based panels. NASA has identified a need for new radiator concepts that can operate at even higher temperatures (500 – 600 K), minimize thermal resistances and thermal stress failures at bond interfaces, and approach areal densities of 2 – 3 kg m -2 . To meet these needs, our team is developing additively manufactured (AM) radiator panels with integral branching wicking heat pipe networks. Water is selected as the working fluid for this temperature range. Based on simulations and thermal vacuum experiments, these branching embedded heat pipe networks can efficiently distribute heat over panels for finned surface efficiencies of η f >70% at T H = 500 K input heat. This paper first presents laser powder-bed fusion AM strategies to produce embedded porous structures for wicking heat pipes in Inconel 718 and titanium alloys (commercially pure and Ti-6Al-4V alloys). Post-build chemical and thermal treatments are described that yield hydrophilic wicking surfaces for operation with water. Transient rate-of-rise experiments with water and acetone are reported that yield estimates for AM wick porosity (ϵ), permeability (K), and effective pore radius ( r pore ). Based on the wick characterization results, small prototype radiator panels (75 × 125 mm) with integrated heat pipe networks were manufactured. Heat rejection performance data are presented from cold thermal vacuum testing, with heat input temperatures up to ~510 K. Future efforts will focus on improving heat pipe performance, optimizing radiator mass, and evaluating larger panels to assess scalability.

nuclear electric propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photon Reconstruction in the Belle II Calorimeter Using Graph Neural Networks

We present the study of a fuzzy clustering algorithm for the Belle II electromagnetic calorimeter using Graph Neural Networks. We use a realistic detector simulation including simulated beam backgrounds and focus on the reconstruction of both isolated and overlapping photons. We find significant improvements of the energy resolution compared to the currently used reconstruction algorithm for both isolated and overlapping photons of more than 30% for photons with energies E γ < 0.5 GeV and high levels of beam backgrounds. Overall, the GNN reconstruction improves the resolution and reduces the tails of the reconstructed energy distribution and therefore is a promising option for the upcoming high luminosity running of Belle II.

Calorimeter↗
DOE OSTI2020

The landscape of disc outflows from black hole–neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT We investigate mass ejection from accretion discs formed in mergers of black holes (BHs) and neutron stars (NSs). The third observing run of the LIGO/Virgo interferometers provided BH–NS candidate events that yielded no electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. The broad range of disc configurations expected from BH–NS mergers motivates a thorough exploration of parameter space to improve EM signal predictions. Here we conduct 27 high-resolution, axisymmetric, long-term hydrodynamic simulations of the viscous evolution of BH accretion discs that include neutrino emission/absorption effects and post-processing with a nuclear reaction network. In the absence of magnetic fields, these simulations provide a lower limit to the fraction of the initial disc mass ejected. We find a nearly linear inverse dependence of this fraction on disc compactness (BH mass over initial disc radius). The dependence is related to the fraction of the disc mass accreted before the ouflow is launched, which depends on the disc position relative to the innermost stable circular orbit. We also characterize a trend of decreasing ejected fraction and decreasing lanthanide/actinide content with increasing disc mass at fixed BH mass. This trend results from a longer time to reach weak freezout and an increasingly dominant role of neutrino absorption at higher disc masses. We estimate the radioactive luminosity from the disc outflow alone available to power kilonovae over the range of configurations studied, finding a spread of two orders of magnitude. For most of the BH–NS parameter space, the disc outflow contribution is well below the kilonova mass upper limits for GW190814.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-lived neutron-star remnants from asymmetric binary neutron star mergers: element formation, kilonova signals and gravitational waves

We present 3D general-relativistic neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics simulations of two asymmetric binary neutron star mergers producing long-lived neutron stars remnants and spanning a fraction of their cooling time scale. The mergers are characterized by significant tidal disruption with neutron rich material forming a massive disc around the remnant. The latter develops one-armed dynamics that is imprinted in the emitted kilo-Hertz gravitational waves. Angular momentum transport to the disc is initially driven by spiral-density waves and enhanced by turbulent viscosity and neutrino heating on longer timescales. The mass outflows are composed by neutron-rich dynamical ejecta of mass ∼10 −3 –10 −2 M ⊙ followed by a persistent spiral-wave/neutrino-driven wind of ≳ 10 −2 M ⊙ with material spanning a wide range of electron fractions, ∼0.1–0.55. Dynamical ejecta (winds) have fast velocity tails up to ∼0.8 (∼0.4) c. The outflows are further evolved to days timescale using 2D ray-by-ray radiation-hydrodynamics simulations that include an online nuclear network. We find complete r-process yields and identify the production of 56 Ni and the subsequent decay chain to 56 Co and 56 Fe. Synthetic kilonova light curves predict an extended (near-) infrared peak a few days postmerger originating from r-process in the neutron-rich/high-opacity ejecta and UV/optical peaks at a few hours (ten minutes) postmerger originating from weak r-process (free-neutron decay) in the faster ejecta components. Additionally, the fast tail of tidal origin generates kilonova afterglows potentially detectable in radio and X band on a few to ten years time scale. Quantitative effects originating from the tidal disruption merger dynamics are reflected in the multimessenger emissions.

abundances↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing Constitutive Models for Prediction of High-Temperature Flow Behavior with a Perspective of Alloy Development

The utility of different constitutive models describing high-temperature flow behavior has been evaluated from the perspective of alloy development. Strain compensated Arrhenius model, modified Johnson–Cook (MJC) model, model D8A and artificial neural network (ANN) have been used to describe flow behavior of different model alloys. These alloys are four grades of SS 316LN with different nitrogen contents ranging from 0.07 to 0.22%. Grades with 0.07%N and 0.22%N have been used to determine suitable material constants of the constitutive equations and also to train the ANN model. While the ANN model has been developed with chemical composition as a direct input, the MJC and D8A models have been amended to incorporate the effect of nitrogen content on flow behavior. The prediction capabilities of all models have been validated using the experimental data obtained from grades containing 0.11%N and 0.14%N. The comparative analysis demonstrates that ‘N-amended D8A’ and ‘N-amended MJC’ are preferable to the ANN model for predicting flow behavior of different grades of 316LN. The work provides detailed insights into the usual statistical error analysis technique and frames five additional criteria which must be considered when a model is analyzed from the perspective of alloy development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗