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Data-driven cyber attack detection and mitigation for decentralized wide-area protection and control in smart grids

Modern power systems have already evolved into complicated cyber physical systems (CPS), often referred to as smart grids, due to the continuous expansion of the electrical infrastructure, the augmentation of the number of heterogeneous system components and players, and the consequential application of a diversity of information and telecommunication technologies to facilitate the Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC) of the day-to-day power system operation. Because of the reliance on cyber technologies, WAMPAC, among other critical functions, is prone to various malicious cyber attacks. Successful cyber attacks, especially those sabotage the operation of Bulk Electric System (BES), can cause great financial losses and social panics. Application of conventional IT security solutions is indispensable, but it often turns out to be insufficient to mitigate sophisticated attacks that deploy zero-day vulnerabilities or social engineering tactics. To further improve the resilience of the operation of smart grids when facing cyber attacks, it is desirable to make the WAMPAC functions per se capable of detecting various anomalies automatically, carrying out adaptive activity adjustments in time and thus staying unimpaired even under attack. Most of the existing research efforts attempt to achieve this by adding novel functional modules, such as model-based anomaly detectors, to the legacy centralized WAMPAC functions. In contrast, this dissertation investigates the application of data-driven algorithms in cyber attack detection and mitigation within a decentralized architecture aiming at improving the situational awareness and self-adaptiveness of WAMPAC. First part of the research focuses on the decentralization of System Integrity Protection Scheme (SIPS) with Multi-Agent System (MAS), within which the data-driven anomaly detection and optimal adaptive load shedding are further explored. An algorithm named as Support Vector Machine embedded Layered Decision Tree (SVMLDT) is proposed for the anomaly detection, which provides satisfactory detection accuracy as well as decision-making interpretability. The adaptive load shedding is carried out by every agent individually with dynamic programming. The load shedding relies on the load profile propagation among peer agents and the attack adaptiveness is accomplished by maintaining the historical mean of load shedding proportion. Load shedding only takes place after the consensus pertaining to the anomaly detection is achieved among all interconnected agents and it serves the purpose of mitigating certain cyber attacks. The attack resilience of the decentralized SIPS is evaluated using IEEE 39 bus model. It is shown that, unlike the traditional centralized SIPS, the proposed solution is able to carry out the remedial actions under most Denial of Service (DoS) attacks. The second part investigates the clustering based anomalous behavior detection and peer-assisted mitigation for power system generation control. To reduce the dimensionality of the data, three metrics are designed to interpret the behavior conformity of generator within the same balancing area. Semi-supervised K-means clustering and a density sensitive clustering algorithm based on Hierarchical DBSCAN (HDBSCAN) are both applied in clustering in the 3D feature space. Aiming to mitigate the cyber attacks targeting the generation control commands, a peer-assisted strategy is proposed. When the control commands from control center is detected as anomalous, i.e. either missing or the payload of which have been manipulated, the generating unit utilizes the peer data to infer and estimate a new generation adjustment value as replacement. Linear regression is utilized to obtain the relation of control values received by different generating units, Moving Target Defense (MTD) is adopted during the peer selection and 1-dimensional clustering is performed with the inferred control values, which are followed by the final control value estimation. The mitigation strategy proposed requires that generating units can communicate with each other in a peer-to-peer manner. Evaluation results suggest the efficacy of the proposed solution in counteracting data availability and data integrity attacks targeting the generation controls. However, the strategy stays effective only if less than half of the generating units are compromised and it is not able to mitigate cyber attacks targeting the measurements involved in the generation control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ground motion response to an ML 4.3 earthquake using co-located distributed acoustic sensing and seismometer arrays

The PoroTomo research team deployed two arrays of seismic sensors in a natural laboratory at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada in March 2016. The 1500 m (length) by 500 m (width) by 400 m (depth) volume of the laboratory overlies a geothermal reservoir. The surface Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array consisted of 8700 m of fiber-optic cable in a shallow trench, including 340 m in a well. The conventional seismometer array consisted of 238 three- component geophones. The DAS cable was laid out in three parallel zig-zag lines with line segments approximately 100 meters in length and geophones were spaced at approximately 60- meter intervals. Both DAS and conventional geophones recorded continuously over 15 days during which a moderate-sized earthquake with a local magnitude of 4.3 was recorded on March 21, 2016. Its epicenter was approximately 150-km south-southeast of the laboratory. Several DAS line segments with co-located geophone stations were used to compare signal-to-noise (SNR) ratios in both time and frequency domains and to test relationships between DAS and geophone data. The ratios were typically within a factor of five of each other with DAS SNR often greater for P-wave but smaller for S-wave relative to geophone SNR. The SNRs measured for an earthquake can be better than for active sources, because the earthquake signal contains more low frequency energy and the noise level is also lower at those lower frequencies. Amplitudes of the sum of several DAS strain-rate waveforms matched the finite difference of two geophone waveforms reasonably well, as did the amplitudes of DAS strain waveforms with particle-velocity waveforms recorded by geophones. Similar agreement was found between DAS and geophone observations and synthetic strain seismograms. In conclusion, the combination of good SNR in the seismic frequency band, high-spatial density, large N, and highly accurate time control among individual sensors suggests that DAS arrays have potential to assume a role in earthquake seismology.

60 signal-to-noise ratio↗

2001 Atlanta Household Travel Survey

The 2001 Atlanta Household Travel Survey collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel information on work and non-work travel behavior for a 48-hour travel period. The study was conducted on behalf of the Atlanta Regional Commission, and it is an essential element in the transportation planning and modeling efforts for the 13-county Atlanta region. The main objective of the study was to produce data that could be used to develop and calibrate travel demand models for use in travel forecasting, land use planning, and air quality planning to improve the transportation system. The second component in the survey was the deployment of an electronic travel diary with person-based GPS and an accelerometer to collect health and activity information. Travel data includes trip generation, trip distribution, and modal choice. The survey recruited a total of 12,184 households to participate in the study. Of these, 8,069 households (66%) completed travel. The 8,069 households, when weighted, represent 21,323 persons, 14,449 vehicles, and 126,127 places visited from April 2001 through April 2002. This dataset is part of the Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive, which includes travel surveys from numerous public agencies across the United States and is archived by the Transportation Secure Data Center to ensure their continued public availability.

1Hz data↗

Industrializing Offshore Wind Power with Serial Assembly and Lower-cost Deployment - Final Report

A team of engineers and contractors has developed a method to move offshore wind installation toward lower cost, faster deployment, and lower environmental impact. A combination of methods, some incremental and some breaks from past practice, interact to yield multiple improvements. Three designs were evaluated based on detailed engineering: 1) a 5 MW turbine on a jacket with pin piles (base case), 2) a 10 MW turbine on a conventional jacket with pin piles, assembled at sea, and 3) a 10 MW turbine on tripod jacket with suction buckets (caissons) and with complete turbine assembly on-shore. The larger turbine, assembly ashore, and the use of suction buckets together substantially reduce capital cost of offshore wind projects. Notable capital cost reductions are: changing from 5 MW to 10 MW turbine, a 31% capital cost reduction, and assembly on land then single-piece install at sea an additional 9% capital cost reduction. An estimated Design 4) estimates further cost reduction when equipment and processes of Design 3) are optimized, rather than adapted to existing equipment and process. Cost of energy for each of the four Designs are also calculated, yielding approximately the same percentage reductions. The methods of Design 3) analyzed here include accepted structures such as suction buckets used in new ways, innovations conceived but previously without engineering and economic validation, combined with new methods not previously proposed. Analysis of Designs 2) and 3) are based on extensive engineering calculations and detailed cost estimates. All design methods can be done with existing equipment, including lift equipment, ports and ships (except that design 4 assumes a more optimized ship). The design team consists of experienced offshore structure designers, heavy lift engineers, wind turbine designers, vessel operators, and marine construction contractors. Comparing the methods based on criteria of cost and deployment speed, the study selected the third design. That design is, in brief: a conventional turbine and tubular tower is mounted on a tripod jacket, in turn atop three suction buckets. Blades are mounted on the tower, not on the hub. The entire structure is built in port, from the bottom up, then assembled structures are queued in the port for deployment. During weather windows, the fully-assembled structures are lifted off the quay, lashed to the vessel, and transported to the deployment site. The vessel analyzed is a shear leg crane vessel with dynamic positioning like the existing Gulliver, or it could be a US-built crane barge. On site, the entire structure is lowered to the bottom by the crane vessel, then pumping of the suction buckets is managed by smaller service vessels. Blades are lifted into place by small winches operated by workers in the nacelle without lift vessel support. Advantages of the selected design include: cost and time at sea of the expensive lift vessel are significantly reduced; no jack up vessel is required; the weather window required for each installation is shorter; turbine structure construction is continuous with a queue feeding the weather-dependent installation process; pre-installation geotechnical work is faster and less expensive; there are no sound impacts on marine mammals, thus minimal spotting and no work stoppage Industrializing Offshore Wind Power 6 of 96 9 for mammal passage; the entire structure can be removed for decommissioning or major repairs; the method has been validated for current turbines up to 10 MW, and a calculation using simple scaling shows it usable up to 20 MW turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Autonomous Energy Management Software System for Small Commercial Buildings in Support of Decarbonization (Abstract)

The primary goal for the project is to develop and validate an autonomous energy management software (AEMS) system that will continuously optimize small commercial building operations by minimizing energy consumption and cost, providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. The work will leverage vast experience of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) research and development staff who have over two decades of experience in developing and successfully transferring software technologies to the private sector. This solution will be jointly developed with Intellimation LLC who plans to use it to scale their building energy efficiency offering. The project plan will include collaboratively working with Intellimation to package a set of solutions into the AEMS system, validate and demonstrate their capability, and value proposition through field demonstrations. If the deployment of the AEMS system optimizes RTUs’ set points, schedules, setbacks and optimal start and results in energy consumption reduction of 20%, the technical potential savings is approximately 675 trillion Btus of site energy savings and 2,000 trillion Btus of source energy. It will also result in carbon reductions of approximately 2.4 MMTCO2 and contribute to the climate change mitigation plans of many cities and states across the United States. Additional cost savings and emissions reduction are possible from management of peak electricity demand. The primary outcome will be an AEMS system that can be deployed at scale on small commercial buildings to improve operating efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Second Annual Transformative Vertical Flight Concepts Workshop: Enabling New Flight Concepts Through Novel Propulsion and Energy Architectures

On August 3rd and 4th, 2015, a workshop was held at the NASA Ames Research Center, located at the Moffett Federal Airfield in California to explore the aviation communities interest in Transformative Vertical Flight (TVF) Concepts. The Workshop was sponsored by the AHS International (AHS), the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and hosted by the NASA Aeronautics Research Institute (NARI). This second annual workshop built on the success and enthusiasm generated by the first TVF Workshop held in Washington, DC in August of 2014. The previous Workshop identified the existence of a multi-disciplinary community interested in this topic and established a consensus among the participants that opportunities to establish further collaborations in this area are warranted. The desire to conduct a series of annual workshops augmented by online virtual technical seminars to strengthen the TVF community and continue planning for advocacy and collaboration was a direct outcome of the first Workshop. The second Workshop organizers focused on four desired action-oriented outcomes. The first was to establish and document common stakeholder needs and areas of potential collaborations. This includes advocacy strategies to encourage the future success of unconventional vertiport capable flight concept solutions that are enabled by emerging technologies. The second was to assemble a community that can collaborate on new conceptual design and analysis tools to permit novel configuration paths with far greater multi-disciplinary coupling (i.e., aero-propulsive-control) to be investigated. The third was to establish a community to develop and deploy regulatory guidelines. This community would have the potential to initiate formation of an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) F44 Committee Subgroup for the development of consensus-based certification standards for General Aviation scale vertiport capable flight systems. These standards need to accommodate novel fixed wing concepts that do not fit within the existing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotorcraft certification framework (Code of Federal Regulations, Title 14, Chapter I, Subchapter C, Part 27). The fourth desired outcome was to launch an information campaign to ensure key U.S. Government agencies understand the potential benefits and industry interest in establishing new vertiport capable flight markets. This record of the Workshop proceedings documents Workshop activities and products including summaries of the video recorded technical presentations, overviews of three breakout sessions (Missions Operational Concepts, Prioritized Technical Challenges, Regulatory Roadmap), and a preliminary draft roadmap framework for TVF.

V/STOL↗

COSMIC: Content-based Onboard Summarization to Monitor Infrequent Change

Interplanetary exploration occurs at vast distancesthat severely limit communication bandwidth to spacecraft exploringother planets. It is possible to collect much morescientific data than can ever be downlinked given current communicationcapabilities. Therefore, we are developing a systemcalled COSMIC (Content-based Onboard Summarization toMonitor Infrequent Change) that will opportunistically analyzedata onboard a Mars orbiter to alert scientists when meaningfulchanges have occurred. COSMIC will allow future spacecraftto continuously collect data to search for rare, transient phenomenasuch as fresh impacts or seasonally changing polarlandforms under a constrained downlink budget. In this paper,we describe the overall goals and architecture of COSMIC,plans to enable specific scientific studies, label acquisition toenable supervised approaches to surface landform classification,a new machine learning evaluation framework for analyzingthe trade-offs between classifier accuracy and computationalrequirements, and lessons learned about constraints that COSMICwill face operating onboard a spacecraft. In particular, wediscuss design considerations surrounding computational andstorage constraints, change detection strategies, and localizingdetected landforms of interest within a global coordinate frame.Finally, we describe challenges and open research questions thatmust be addressed prior to deploying COSMIC.

Trockman, Asher↗

FLEXIBLE POWER TRANSFORMERS TO IMPROVE RESILIENCY OF TRANSMISSION NETWORKS

For decades, transformer flexibility of operation has been limited to adjustable voltage ratio and, in some cases, several ratings with staged cooling. Transformers reconnectable to multiple voltage ratings have been primarily applied as emergency replacements. Other versions of “flexible transformers” were developed for continuous, long-term operation at specific sites, with application limited to large utilities. A new technology that supports today’s power systems adaptability requirements has been developed to provide not only voltage and power rating flexibility, but also an adjustable short-circuit impedance. This last, unique feature allows for a closer match to actual system operational requirements and could be used in the future to enhance resiliency and improve dynamic control of electrical grids. While the solution’s fundamentals have already been introduced in several technical forums, the intention of this article is to focus on the potential benefits of this new type of transformer and share the deployment experience of a full-scale prototype that has been in operation in a major U.S. utility since 2021

flexible transformer, resilient grid, variable lea↗

Investigating the impact of preparation routes on the properties of copper-decorated silicon particles as anode materials for lithium-ion batteries

In recent years, the calendar life of Si has been recognized as a significant issue that must be addressed prior to technology deployment: The carbon conductive additive is a potential source of parasitic side reactions. However, carbon remains essential due to the low electronic conductivity of Si. In this study, we investigate the use of Cu as a conductive additive and potential alternative to carbon. Some Cu-decorated silicon particles (Si Cu ) were prepared using physical vapor deposition (PVD) via sputtering and high-energy milling. Other Si Cu particles were prepared by using a solution method and examined briefly. The milling method caused Cu to appear as island-like features on the Si surface, whereas the PVD method initially produced similar island-like features that gradually developed into a continuous coating around the Si as sputtering time increased. Electrodes fabricated from Si Cu exhibited lower overall resistivity, demonstrating the beneficial effect of Cu in improving electronic percolation through the electrode. Electrochemical tests showed that the milled SiCu exhibited higher capacity retention, improved rate capability, and lower overpotential. Furthermore, Si Cu coupled with an NMC811 cathode exhibited lower leakage currents compared with the baseline silicon, indicating that incorporating Cu provided an additional advantage of minimizing parasitic currents in the cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Mars Pathfinder Mission and Science Results

Mars Pathfinder, the first low-cost, quick Discovery class mission to be completed, successfully landed on the surface of Mars on July 4, 1997, deployed and navigated a small rover, and collected data from 3 science instruments and 10 technology experiments. The mission operated on Mars for 3 months and returned 2.3 Gbits of new data, including over 16,500 lander and 550 rover images, 16 chemical analyses of rocks and soil, and 8.5 million individual temperature, pressure and wind measurements. The rover traversed 100 m clockwise around the lander, exploring about 200 square meters of the surface. The mission captured the imagination of the public, and garnered front page headlines during the first week. A total of about 566 million internet "hits" were registered during the first month of the mission, with 47 million "hits" on July 8th alone, making the Pathfinder landing by far the largest internet event in history at the time. Pathfinder was the first mission to deploy a rover on Mars. It carried a chemical analysis instrument, to characterize the rocks and soils in a landing area over hundreds of square meters on Mars, which provided a calibration point or "ground truth" for orbital remote sensing observations. The combination of spectral imaging of the landing area by the lander camera, chemical analyses aboard the rover, and close-up imaging of colors, textures and fabrics with the rover cameras offered the potential of identifying rocks (petrology and mineralogy). With this payload, a landing site in Ares Vallis was selected because it appeared acceptably safe and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which enabled addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early Martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The 3 instruments and rover allowed seven areas of scientific investigation: the geology and geomorphology of the surface, mineralogy and geochemistry of rocks and soils, physical properties of surface materials, magnetic properties of airborne dust, atmospheric science including aerosols, and rotational and orbital dynamics of Mars. Scientists were assembled into 7 Science Operations Groups that were responsible for requesting measurements by the 3 instruments, rover and engineering subsystems for carrying out their scientific investigations and for analyzing the data and reporting on their findings. The spacecraft was launched on December 4, 1996 and had a 7 month cruise to Mars, with four trajectory correction maneuvers. The vehicle entered the atmosphere directly following cruise stage separation. Parachute deployment, heatshield and lander separation, radar ground acquisition, airbag inflation and rocket ignition all occurred before landing at 2:58 AM true local solar time (9:56:55 AM PDT). The lander bounced at least 15 times up to 12 in high without airbag rupture, demonstrating the robustness of this landing system. Reconstruction of the final landing sequence indicates that the parachute/backshel1/1ander was tilted due to a northwest directed wind and wind shear, which resulted in the lander bouncing about I km to the northwest and initially downhill about 20 m from where the solid rockets fired. Two anomalously bright spots located in the lander scene are likely the heatshield, which continued in a ballistic trajectory about 2 km downrange (west southwest), and the backshell/parachute, which stayed nearer to where the rockets fired. Unconnected disturbed soil patches in the scene indicate that the final few bounces of the lander were from the east-southeast and were followed by a gentle roll to the west before coming to rest on the base petal. The location of the lander away from where the solid rockets fired and considerations of the exhaust products used to inflate the airbags and their fate, indicate that the Pathfinder landing system is one of the cleanest designed leaving the local area essentially contaminant free. The radio signal from the low-=gain antenna was received at 11:34 AM PDT indicating a successful landing.

Golombek, M. P.↗

A Ground-Based Profiling Differential Absorption LIDAR System for Measuring CO2 in the Planetary Boundary Layer

Ground-based LIDAR observations can potentially provide continuous profiles of CO2 through the planetary boundary layer and into the free troposphere. We will present initial atmospheric measurements from a prototype system that is based on components developed by the telecommunications industry. Preliminary measurements and instrument performance calculations indicate that an optimized differential absorption LIDAR (DIAL) system will be capable of providing continuous hourly averaged profiles with 250m vertical resolution and better than 1 ppm precision at 1 km. Precision increases (decreases) at lower (higher) altitudes and is directly proportional to altitude resolution and acquisition time. Thus, precision can be improved if temporal or vertical resolution is sacrificed. Our approach measures absorption by CO2 of pulsed laser light at 1.6 microns backscattered from atmospheric aerosols. Aerosol concentrations in the planetary boundary layer are relatively high and are expected to provide adequate signal returns for the desired resolution. The long-term goal of the project is to develop a rugged, autonomous system using only commercially available components that can be replicated inexpensively for deployment in a monitoring network.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗

Perception Testing in Fog for Autonomous Flight

As the path towards Urban Air Mobility (UAM) continues to take shape, there are outstanding technical challenges to achieving safe and effective air transportation operations under this new paradigm. To inform and guide technology development for UAM, NASA is investigating the current state-of-the-art in key technology areas including traffic management, detect-and-avoid, and autonomy. In support of this effort, a new perception testbed was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to collect data from an array of sensing systems representative of those that could be found on a future UAM vehicle. This testbed, featuring a Light-Detection-and-Ranging (LIDAR) instrument, a long-wave infrared sensor, and a visible spectrum camera was deployed for a multiday test campaign in the Fog Chamber at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in Albuquerque, New Mexico. During the test campaign, fog conditions were created for tests with targets including a human, a resolution chart, and a small unmanned aerial vehicle (sUAV). Here, this paper describes in detail, the developed perception testbed, the experimental setup in the fog chamber, the resulting data, and presents an initial result from analysis of the data with the evaluation of methods to increase contrast through filtering techniques.

aeronautics↗

Solar thermal plant impact analysis and requirements definition

Progress on a continuing study comprising of ten tasks directed at defining impact and requirements for solar thermal power systems (SPS), 1 to 10 MWe each in capacity, installed during 1985 through year 2000 in a utility or a nonutility load in the United States is summarized. The point focus distributed receiver (PFDR) solar power systems are emphasized. Tasks 1 through 4, completed to date, include the development of a comprehensive data base on SPS configurations, their performance, cost, availability, and potential applications; user loads, regional characteristics, and an analytic methodology that incorporates the generally accepted utility financial planning methods and several unique modifications to treat the significant and specific characteristics of solar power systems deployed in either central or distributed power generation modes, are discussed.

Gupta, Y. P.↗

R2U2: Tool Overview

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is an extensible framework for runtime System HealthManagement (SHM) of cyber-physical systems. R2U2 can be run in hardware (e.g., FPGAs), or software; can monitorhardware, software, or a combination of the two; and can analyze a range of different types of system requirementsduring runtime. An R2U2 requirement is specified utilizing a hierarchical combination of building blocks: temporal formula runtime observers (in LTL or MTL), Bayesian networks, sensor filters, and Boolean testers. Importantly, the framework is extensible; it is designed to enable definitions of new building blocks in combination with the core structure. Originally deployed on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), R2U2 is designed to run on a wide range of embedded platforms, from autonomous systems like rovers, satellites, and robots, to human-assistive ground systems and cockpits. R2U2 is named after the requirements it satisfies; while the exact requirements vary by platform and mission, the ability to formally reason about realizability, responsiveness, and unobtrusiveness is necessary for flight certifiability, safety-critical system assurance, and achievement of technology readiness levels for target systems. Realizability ensures that R2U2 is suficiently expressive to encapsulate meaningful runtime requirements while maintaining adaptability to run on different platforms, transition between different mission stages, and update quickly between missions. Responsiveness entails continuously monitoring the system under test, real-time reasoning, reporting intermediate status, and as-early-as-possible requirements evaluations. Unobtrusiveness ensures compliance with the crucial properties of the target architecture: functionality, certifiability, timing, tolerances, cost, or other constraints.

Rozier, Kristin Y.↗

Perception Testing in Fog for Autonomous Flight

As the path towards Urban Air Mobility (UAM) continues to take shape, there are outstanding technical challenges to achieving safe and effective air transportation operations under this new paradigm. To inform and guide technology development for UAM, NASA is investigating the current state-of-the-art in key technology areas including traffic management, detect-and-avoid, and autonomy. In support of this effort, a new perception testbed was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to collect data from an array of sensing systems representative of those that could be found on a future UAM vehicle. This testbed, featuring a Light-Detection-and-Ranging (LIDAR) instrument, a long-wave infrared sensor, and a visible spectrum camera was deployed for a multiday test campaign in the Fog Chamber at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in Albuquerque, New Mexico. During the test campaign, fog conditions were created for tests with targets including a human, a resolution chart, and a small unmanned aerial vehicle (sUAV). This paper describes in detail, the developed perception testbed, the experimental setup in the fog chamber, the resulting data, and presents an initial result from analysis of the data with the evaluation of methods to increase contrast through filtering techniques.

advanced air mobility↗

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗

In situ quantum verification of polarization-stabilized optical channels

The active stabilization of polarization channels is a task of growing importance as quantum networks move to deployed demonstrations over existing fiber infrastructure. However, the uniquely strict requirements for high-fidelity qubit transmission complicate the extent to which classical solutions may apply to future quantum networks, particularly in terms of recognizing noise sources present in low-flux, nonunitary channels. Here we introduce an in situ benchmarking approach that augments a classical polarization tracking system, limited to unitary correction, with simultaneously transmitted quantum light for ancilla-assisted process tomography of the full quantum map. Implemented in a quantum local-area network, our method uses the reconstructed map both to validate the classical compensation and to expose noise sources it fails to capture. A sliding measurement window that continuously updates the estimated quantum process further increases sensitivity to rapid channel fluctuations. Our results should unlock new opportunities for in situ channel characterization in quantum-classical coexistence networks.

Stevens, Matthew L [Arizona State University]↗

Marine Hydrokinetic Energy Site Identification and Ranking Methodology Part I: Wave Energy

Marine hydrokinetic energy is a promising and growing piece of the renewable energy sector that offers high predictability and additional energy sources for a diversified energy economy. This report investigates the market opportunities for wave energy along the U.S. coastlines. It is part one of a two-part investigation into the United State's two largest marine hydrokinetic resources (wave and tidal). Wave energy technology is still an emerging form of renewable energy for which large-scale, grid-connected project costs are currently poorly defined. Ideally, device designers would like to know the resource conditions at economical project sites so they can optimize device designs. On the other hand, project developers need detailed device cost data to identify sites where projects are economical. That is, device design and siting are, to some extent, a coupled problem. This work describes a methodology for identifying likely deployment locations based on a set of criteria that wave energy experts in industry, academia, and national laboratories agree are likely to be important factors for all technology types. This work groups the data for the six criteria into 'locales' that are defined as the smaller of either the local transmission grid or a state boundary. The former applies to U.S. islands (e.g., Hawaii, American Samoa) and rural villages (e.g., in Alaska); the latter applies to states in the contiguous United States. These data are then scored from 0 to 10 according to scoring functions that were developed with input from wave energy industry and academic experts. The scores are aggregated using a simple product method that includes a weighting factor for each criterion. This work presents two weighting scenarios: a long-term scenario that does not include energy price (weighted zero) and a near term scenario that includes energy price. The aggregated scores are then used to produce ranked lists of likely deployment locales. In both scenarios, Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest (northern California, Oregon, and Washington) rank at the top of the lists. Hawaii ranks highest in the near-term scenario because it has high energy costs. In the long-term scenario, Oregon ranks highest because it has a large market and an energetic resource. Several East Coast states and Puerto Rico are also identified as potential wave energy deployment sites if technological innovations make it possible to efficiently generate electricity from the modest resource there. There are also several small-market sites in Alaska and U.S. Pacific Islands that rank particularly well in the near-term analysis due to their high energy prices. These locations may represent opportunities to demonstrate economical wave energy conversion as a stepping-stone to larger markets. Several factors that will affect wave project costs and siting have not been considered here -- including permitting constraints, conflicting use, seasonal resource variability, extreme event likelihood, and distance to ports -- because consistent data are unavailable or technology-independent scoring could not be identified. As the industry continues to mature and converge around a subset of device archetypes with well-defined costs, more precise investigations of project siting that include these factors will be possible. For now, these results provide a high-level guide pointing to the regions where markets and resource will one day support commercial wave energy projects.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗