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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

MSFC solar activity predictions for satellite orbital lifetime estimation

The procedure to predict solar activity indexes for use in upper atmosphere density models is given together with an example of the performance. The prediction procedure employs a least square linear regression model to generate the predicted smoothed vinculum R sub 13 and geomagnetic vinculum A sub p(13) values. Linear regression equations are then employed to compute corresponding vinculum F sub 10.7(13) solar flux values from the predicted vinculum R sub 13 values. The output is issued principally for satellite orbital lifetime estimations.

Fuler, H. C.↗

Quantile-Specific Heritability of Inflammatory and Oxidative Stress Biomarkers Linked to Cardiovascular Disease

Purpose: Heritability (h 2 , the proportion of the phenotypic variance attributable to additive genetic effects) is traditionally assumed to be constant throughout the distribution of the phenotype. However, the heritabilities of circulating C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, plasminogen activator inhibitor type-1 (PAI-1), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) concentrations depend upon whether the phenotype is high or low relative to their distributions (quantile-dependent expressivity), which may account for apparent gene–environment interactions. Whether the heritabilities of other inflammatory biomarkers linked to cardiovascular disease are quantile-dependent remain to be determined. Patients and Methods: Quantile-specific offspring-parent (β OP ) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ) were estimated by applying quantile regression to the age- and sex-adjusted phenotypes of families surveyed as part of the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritabilities were calculated as: h 2 =2β OP /(1+r spouse ) and h 2 ={(1+8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 – 1}/(2r spouse ). Results: Heritability (h 2 ± SE) of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA 2 ) mass concentrations increased from 0.11 ± 0.03 at the 10 th percentile, 0.08 ± 0.03 at the 25 th , 0.12 ± 0.03 at the 50 th , 0.20 ± 0.04 at the 75 th , and 0.26 ± 0.06 at the 90 th percentile, or 0.0023 ± 0.0006 per each one-percent increase in the phenotype distribution (P linear trend = 0.0004). Similarly, h 2 increased 0.0029 ± 0.0011 (P linear trend = 0.01) for sP-selectin, 0.0032 ± 0.0009 (P linear trend = 0.0001) for soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1), and 0.0026 ± 0.0006 for tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR2) (P linear trend = 5.0 × 10 -6 ) per each one-percent increase in their distributions when estimated from β OP . Osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 heritability also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions when estimated from β FS . Lp-PLA 2 activity, CD40 ligand, TNFα, interleukin-18, and myeloperoxidase heritability showed no significant quantile-dependence. Conclusion: The heritabilities of circulating Lp-PLA 2 -mass, sP-selectin, sICAM-1, TNFR2, osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 concentrations are quantile-dependent, which may contribute to purported genetic modulations of: 1) sP-selectin’s relationships to venous thrombosis, pulmonary hypertension, type 2 diabetes and atorvastatin treatment; 2) sICAM-I’s relationships to brain abscess and atorvastatin treatment; and 3) Lp-PLA 2 ’s relationships to myocardial infarction and preeclampsia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Propulsion estimation techniques

A brief overview of statistical tools needed to perform post flight/test reconstruction of state variables is given. Linear regression, recursive linear regression, and the exact connection between the Kalman filter and linear regression are discussed. The regression connection is expected to serve as an aid in the application of a recently developed analytical method of flight reconstruction to single engine test firing data.

Temple, Enoch C.↗

Direct inversion of rigid-body rotational dynamics

The global linearization (inversion) of rigid-body rotational dynamics is reviewed and representations in terms of quaternions and direction cosines are compared. Certain properties common to quaternions and direction cosines that make their use preferable to Euler angles and that simplify the inversion procedure are described. Applications of the inversion procedure for state estimation and attitude control are discussed. To avoid complexities caused by aerodynamics, an example of direct inversion for linear feedback control of spacecraft attitude is given.

Bach, Ralph↗

Direct inversion of rigid-body rotational dynamics

The global linearization (inversion) of rigid-body rotational dynamics is reviewed, and representations in terms of quaternions and direction cosines are compared. Certain properties common to quaternions and direction cosines that make their use preferable to Euler angles and that simplify the inversion procedure are described. Applications of the inversion procedure for state estimation and attitude control are discussed. To avoid complexities caused by aerodynamics, an example of direct inversion for linear feedback control of spacecraft attitude is given.

Bach, Ralph↗

Estimates of Damped Energy Spread and Emittance in a Two Energy Storage Ring Cooler

In this paper we provide estimates of the damped energy spread and emittance in a two-energy storage ring cooler. Two energy storage rings have two loops at markedly different energies, one at low energy and the other at high energy. In a cooling application the low energy ring has a cooling section to cool the ion beam and the high energy ring may have a wiggler section to enhance the damping effect on electron beam. The linear optics in the cooling section is designed to attain the maximum cooling of ion beams. Similarly, the linear optics in the wiggler section is designed to attained the required equilibrium emittance and energy spread. Hence, the radiation events in these two rings are different and independent. Since the values of damped energy spread and emittance depend on a range of parameters related to lattice design and rings energies, we present analytical calculations along with simulation results to estimate the values of damped energy spread and emittance in a two energy storage ring cooler.

Dhital, B.↗

Evaluation of methods to assess the uncertainty in estimated energy savings

In this work we present a methodology to evaluate the accuracy of methods used to quantify the uncertainty in estimated total energy savings. We focus on savings measurement and verification (M&V) approaches that use a baseline model to characterize energy use, and that forward-project the model for a counterfactual to determine avoided energy use. These approaches are common to the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol's (IPMVP's) Option C and Option B. This methodology can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in savings estimates that are due to model error. It has been applied to evaluate two uncertainty estimation methods, including the industry standard ASHRAE Guideline 14 approach. The evaluation used data from 69 commercial buildings and four different baseline models that span daily and hourly granularity, as well as linear and non-linear/non-parametric forms. The findings of this work indicate that the standard methods that are widely used by the M&V community for estimating the total savings uncertainty over the post-installation period tend to underestimate the uncertainty. The tendency to underestimate the uncertainty is stronger for hourly models than for daily models, due to stronger autocorrelation in model residuals at the hourly time scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Spectral response of a bilinear oscillator

An approximate analytical procedure is presented to estimate the response power spectral density of a randomly excited spring/mass/damper system having a bilinear spring. The approximate expression for the response spectrum is developed by representing the nonlinear oscillator as a linear system having a natural frequency that depends on the envelope of the random response. This approximate representation of the system leads to estimates of the response spectrum that agree extremely well with those obtained by direct numerical simulation of the governing equation.

Miles, R. N.↗

A study of self organized criticality in ion temperature gradient mode driven gyrokinetic turbulence

An investigation on the characteristics of self organized criticality (Soc) in ITG mode driven turbulence is made, with the use of various statistical tools (histograms, power spectra, Hurst exponents estimated with the rescaled range analysis, and the structure function method). For this purpose, local non-linear gyrokinetic simulations of the cyclone base case scenario are performed with the GENE software package. Although most authors concentrate on global simulations, which seem to be a better choice for such an investigation, we use local simulations in an attempt to study the locally underlying mechanisms of Soc. We also study the structural properties of radially extended structures, with several tools (fractal dimension estimate, cluster analysis, and two dimensional autocorrelation function), in order to explore whether they can be characterized as avalanches. We find that, for large enough driving temperature gradients, the local simulations exhibit most of the features of Soc, with the exception of the probability distribution of observables, which show a tail, yet they are not of power-law form. The radial structures have the same radial extent at all temperature gradients examined; radial motion (transport) though appears only at large temperature gradients, in which case the radial structures can be interpreted as avalanches.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature–density relation γ−1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃7% and ≃10% at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ−1 of the IGM temperature–density relation with a precision of ±8.6% at z = 3 and ±6.1% at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Linear-depth quantum circuits for loading Fourier approximations of arbitrary functions

Abstract The ability to efficiently load functions on quantum computers with high fidelity is essential for many quantum algorithms, including those for solving partial differential equations and Monte Carlo estimation. In this work, we introduce the Fourier series loader (FSL) method for preparing quantum states that exactly encode multi-dimensional Fourier series using linear-depth quantum circuits. Specifically, the FSL method prepares a (Dn)-qubit state encoding the 2 Dn -point uniform discretization of aD-dimensional function specified by aD-dimensional Fourier series. A free parameter,m, which must be less thann, determines the number of Fourier coefficients, 2 D ( m + 1 ) , used to represent the function. The FSL method uses a quantum circuit of depth at most 2 ( n − 2 ) + ⌈ log 2 ( n − m ) ⌉ + 2 D ( m + 1 ) + 2 − 2 D ( m + 1 ) , which is linear in the number of Fourier coefficients, and linear in the number of qubits (Dn) despite the fact that the loaded function’s discretization is over exponentially many (2 Dn ) points. The FSL circuit consists of at most D n + 2 D ( m + 1 ) + 1 − 1 single-qubit and D n ( n + 1 ) / 2 + 2 D ( m + 1 ) + 1 − 3 D ( m + 1 ) − 2 two-qubit gates; we present a classical compilation algorithm with runtime O ( 2 3 D ( m + 1 ) ) to determine the FSL circuit for a given Fourier series. The FSL method allows for the highly accurate loading of complex-valued functions that are well-approximated by a Fourier series with finitely many terms. We report results from noiseless quantum circuit simulations, illustrating the capability of the FSL method to load various continuous 1D functions, and a discontinuous 1D function, on 20 qubits with infidelities of less than 10 −6 and 10 −3 , respectively. We also demonstrate the practicality of the FSL method for near-term quantum computers by presenting experiments performed on the Quantinuum H1-1 and H1-2 trapped-ion quantum computers: we loaded a complex-valued function on 3 qubits with a fidelity of over 95 % , as well as various 1D real-valued functions on up to 6 qubits with classical fidelities ≈99%, and a 2D function on 10 qubits with a classical fidelity ≈94%.

Physics↗

Performance of methods for SARS-CoV-2 variant detection and abundance estimation within mixed population samples

The accurate identification of SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) variants and estimation of their abundance in mixed population samples (e.g., air or wastewater) is imperative for successful surveillance of community level trends. Assessing the performance of SC2 variant composition estimators (VCEs) should improve our confidence in public health decision making. Here, we introduce a linear regression based VCE and compare its performance to four other VCEs: two re-purposed DNA sequence read classifiers (Kallisto and Kraken2), a maximum-likelihood based method (Lineage deComposition for Sars-Cov-2 pooled samples (LCS)), and a regression based method (Freyja). We simulated DNA sequence datasets of known variant composition from both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) platforms and assessed the performance of each VCE. We also evaluated VCEs performance using publicly available empirical wastewater samples collected for SC2 surveillance efforts. Bioinformatic analyses were performed with a custom NextFlow workflow (C-WAP, CFSAN Wastewater Analysis Pipeline). Relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) was used as a measure of performance with respect to the known abundance and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to measure agreement between pairs of estimators. Based on our results from simulated data, Kallisto was the most accurate estimator as it had the lowest RRMSE, followed by Freyja. Kallisto and Freyja had the most similar predictions, reflected by the highest CCC metrics. We also found that accuracy was platform and amplicon panel dependent. For example, the accuracy of Freyja was significantly higher with Illumina data compared to ONT data; performance of Kallisto was best with ARTICv4. However, when analyzing empirical data there was poor agreement among methods and variations in the number of variants detected (e.g., Freyja ARTICv4 had a mean of 2.2 variants while Kallisto ARTICv4 had a mean of 10.1 variants). This work provides an understanding of the differences in performance of a number of VCEs and how accurate they are in capturing the relative abundance of SC2 variants within a mixed sample (e.g., wastewater). Such information should help officials gauge the confidence they can have in such data for informing public health decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Formation Flying Satellite Control Around the L2 Sun-Earth Libration Point

A growing interest in formation flying satellites demands development and analysis of control and estimation algorithms for station-keeping and formation maneuvering. This paper discusses the development of a discrete linear-quadratic-regulator control algorithm for formations in the vicinity of the L2 sun-earth libration point. The development of an appropriate Kalman filter is included as well. Simulations are created for the analysis of the station-keeping and various formation maneuvers of the Stellar Imager mission. The simulations provide tracking error, estimation error, and control effort results. From the control effort, useful design parameters such as delta V and propellant mass are determined. For formation maneuvering, the formation spacecraft track to within 4 meters of their desired position and within 1.5 millimeters per second of their desired zero velocity. The filter, with few exceptions, keeps the estimation errors within their three-sigma values. Without noise, the controller performs extremely well, with the formation spacecraft tracking to within several micrometers. Each spacecraft uses around 1 to 2 grams of propellant per maneuver, depending on the circumstances.

Hamilton, Nicholas H.↗

Linear stability theory and three-dimensional boundary layer transition

The viewgraphs and discussion of linear stability theory and three dimensional boundary layer transition are provided. The ability to predict, using analytical tools, the location of boundary layer transition over aircraft-type configurations is of great importance to designers interested in laminar flow control (LFC). The e(sup N) method has proven to be fairly effective in predicting, in a consistent manner, the location of the onset of transition for simple geometries in low disturbance environments. This method provides a correlation between the most amplified single normal mode and the experimental location of the onset of transition. Studies indicate that values of N between 8 and 10 correlate well with the onset of transition. For most previous calculations, the mean flows were restricted to two-dimensional or axisymmetric cases, or have employed simple three-dimensional mean flows (e.g., rotating disk, infinite swept wing, or tapered swept wing with straight isobars). Unfortunately, for flows over general wing configurations, and for nearly all flows over fuselage-type bodies at incidence, the analysis of fully three-dimensional flow fields is required. Results obtained for the linear stability of fully three-dimensional boundary layers formed over both wing and fuselage-type geometries, and for both high and low speed flows are discussed. When possible, transition estimates form the e(sup N) method are compared to experimentally determined locations. The stability calculations are made using a modified version of the linear stability code COSAL. Mean flows were computed using both Navier Stokes and boundary-layer codes.

Spall, Robert E.↗

Non-invasive imaging of the levels and effects of glutathione on the redox status of mouse brain using electron paramagnetic resonance imaging

Glutathione (GSH) is the most abundant non-protein thiol that buffers reactive oxygen species in the brain. GSH does not reduce nitroxides directly, but in the presence of ascorbates, addition of GSH increases ascorbate-induced reduction of nitroxides. In this study, we used electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) imaging and the nitroxide imaging probe, 3-methoxycarbonyl-2,2,5,5-tetramethyl-piperidine-1-oxyl (MCP), to non-invasively obtain spatially resolved redox data from mouse brains depleted of GSH with diethyl maleate compared to control. Based on the pharmacokinetics of the reduction reaction of MCP in the mouse heads, the pixel-based rate constant of its reduction reaction was calculated as an index of the redox status in vivo and mapped as a “redox map”. The obtained redox maps from control and GSH-depleted mouse brains showed a clear change in the brain redox status, which was due to the decreased levels of GSH in brains as measured by a biochemical assay. We observed a linear relationship between the reduction rate constant of MCP and the level of GSH for both control and GSH-depleted mouse brains. Using this relationship, the GSH level in the brain can be estimated from the redox map obtained with EPR imaging. - Highlights: • Redox status of glutathione-depleted mouse brain was examined with EPR imaging. • Redox status of mouse brain changed depending on glutathione (GSH) levels in brains. • Linear relationship between GSH levels and redox status in brains was found. • Using this relation, estimation of GSH levels in brains is possible from EPR images.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Regularization for Atmospheric Temperature Retrieval Problems

Passive remote sensing of the atmosphere is used to determine the atmospheric state. A radiometer measures microwave emissions from earth's atmosphere and surface. The radiance measured by the radiometer is proportional to the brightness temperature. This brightness temperature can be used to estimate atmospheric parameters such as temperature and water vapor content. These quantities are of primary importance for different applications in meteorology, oceanography, and geophysical sciences. Depending on the range in the electromagnetic spectrum being measured by the radiometer and the atmospheric quantities to be estimated, the retrieval or inverse problem of determining atmospheric parameters from brightness temperature might be linear or nonlinear. In most applications, the retrieval problem requires the inversion of a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind making this an ill-posed problem. The numerical solution of the retrieval problem requires the transformation of the continuous problem into a discrete problem. The ill-posedness of the continuous problem translates into ill-conditioning or ill-posedness of the discrete problem. Regularization methods are used to convert the ill-posed problem into a well-posed one. In this paper, we present some results of our work in applying different regularization techniques to atmospheric temperature retrievals using brightness temperatures measured with the SSM/T-1 sensor. Simulation results are presented which show the potential of these techniques to improve temperature retrievals. In particular, no statistical assumptions are needed and the algorithms were capable of correctly estimating the temperature profile corner at the tropopause independent of the initial guess.

Velez-Reyes, Miguel↗

Chemical looping combustion oxygen carrier production cost study

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of commercial production of oxygen carriers (OCs) for large-scale application in a mature, chemical looping combustion (CLC) power generation industry. Estimates of cost were made for two production facility scenarios: 1) build and operate an on-site, OC production facility located at a 550 MW CLC power plant site; and 2) build and operate a central production facility to produce and distribute OCs to the U.S. CLC power generation industry. Two OC production techniques were addressed: mechanical mixing and co-precipitation. Representative OCs that have production raw materials with sufficient commercial availability to support a CLC industry are ilmenite, a natural OC, and four engineered OC types, Fe 2 O 3 -based, CuO-based, NiO-based, and CuFeAlO 4 -based, with candidate OC support materials Al 2 O 3 and TiO 2 . The costs of the OC production raw materials represent the major portion of the OC product cost; the OC production cost, in dollars per kg, has been found to be nearly a linear function of the OC raw materials cost, in dollars per kg. In conclusion, the estimated OC product costs can be used to estimate the maximum OC loss rate yielding a designated CLC power plant cost-of-electricity (COE) target as a development guide, and it has been found that the maximum OC makeup rate, in kg per hour, achieving a designated COE reduction goal relative to a conventional pulverized coal (PC) power plant, will be nearly inversely proportional to the OC production raw materials cost, in dollars per kg.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

SU-E-T-95: Delivery Time Estimator

Purpose: The development and testing of a tool for the inclusion of delivery time as a parameter in plan optimization. Methods: We developed an algorithm that estimates the time required for the machine and personnel movements required to deliver a treatment plan on a linear accelerator. We included dose rate, leaf motion, collimator motion, gantry motion, and couch motions (including time to enter the room to rotate the couch safely). Vault-specific parameters to account for time to enter and perform couch angle adjustments were also included. This algorithm works for static, step and shoot IMRT, and VMAT beams photon beams and for fixed electron beams. This was implemented as a script in our treatment planning system. We validated the estimator against actual recorded delivery time from our R and V system as well as recorded times from our IMRT QA delivery. Results: Data was collected (Figure 1) for 12 treatment plans by examining the R and V beam start times, and by manually timing the QA treatment for a reference, but the QA measurements were only significant to the nearest minute. The average difference between the estimated and R and V times was 15%, and 11% when excluding the major outliers. Outliers arose due to respiratory aides and gating techniques which could not be accounted for in the estimator. Conclusion: Non-mechanical factors such as the time a therapist needs to walk in and out of the room to adjust the couch needed to be fine-tuned and cycled back into the algorithm to improve the estimate. The algorithm has been demonstrated to provide reasonable and useful estimates for delivery time. This estimate has provided a useful additional input for clinical decision-making when comparing several potential radiation treatment options.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗