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NASA NTRS2015

Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Develop a Predictive Model for Future Fire Seasons

The deep learning model shows promise for predicting areas of high wildfire potential. Full evaluation of the model performance is ongoing. Currently, the developed deep learning model is better overall at predicting the number of fires over the acres burned. Acres burned is dependent on location, suppression plan, and current conditions. Antecedent conditions are only one piece of the equation. In-season changes are not accounted for. An ignition source is required, which further complicates the model training and prediction.

White, Andrew T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Array Performance Modeling for NASA’s Artemis Missions

NASA’s Artemis exploration campaign includes multiple elements that utilize photovoltaic power generation. Artemis mission profiles feature a variety of events that can limit solar array generation and stress electrical power system (EPS) performance, including eclipses, propulsive or navigational maneuvers which constrain the positioning of the solar arrays, and spiral trajectories with significant radiation degradation. These features make predicting the performance of the power system particularly important and requires accurate modeling of power generation by the solar arrays under a variety of conditions. One of the tools used to predict spacecraft EPS performance is the System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. SPACE is used by NASA to model EPS performance for the Orion crew transport vehicle and the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) of the Gateway space station. This presentation will provide an overview of how SPACE calculates solar array performance, including degradation factors considered and environmental conditions that drive the solar array designs. Additionally, Orion array performance predictions generated by SPACE will be compared to flight data collected during the Artemis I mission.

Photovoltaic↗

NASA NTRS2005

Development of a Modeling Framework to Support Control Investigations of Sailcraft Missions A First Cut: ABLE Sailcraft Dynamics Model

Solar Sailcraft, the stuff of dreams of the H.G. Wells generation, is now a rapidly maturing reality. The promise of unlimited propulsive power by harnessing stellar radiation is close to realization. Currently, efforts are underway to build, prototype and test two configurations. These sails are designed to meet a 20m sail requirement, under guidance of the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) technology program office at MSFC. While these sails will not fly , they are the first steps in improving our understanding of the processes and phenomena at work. As part of the New Millennium Program (NMP) the ST9 technology validation mission hopes to launch and fly a solar sail by 2010 or sooner. Though the Solar Sail community has been studying and validating various concepts over two decades, it was not until recent breakthroughs in structural and material technology, has made possible to build sails that could be launched. With real sails that can be tested (albeit under earth conditions), the real task of engineering a viable spacecraft has finally commenced. Since it is not possible to accurately or practically recreate the actual operating conditions of the sailcraft (zero-G, vacuum and extremely low temperatures), much of the work has focused on developing accurate models that can be used to predict behavior in space, and for sails that are 6-10 times the size of currently existing sails. Since these models can be validated only with real test data under "earth" conditions, the process of modeling and the identification of uncertainty due to model assumptions and scope need to be closely considered. Sailcraft models that exist currently, are primarily focused on detailed physical representations at the component level, these are intended to support prototyping efforts. System level models that cut across different sail configurations and control concepts while maintaining a consistent approach are non-existent. Much effort has been focused on the areas of thrust performance, solar radiation prediction, and sail membrane behavior vis-a-vis their reflective geometry, such as wrinkling/folding/furling as it pertains to thrust prediction. A parallel effort has been conducted on developing usable models for developing attitude control systems (ACS), for different sail configurations in different regimes. There has been very little by way of a system wide exploration of the impact of the various control schemes, thrust prediction models for different sail configurations being considered.

Sarathy, Sriprakash↗

DOE OSTI2024

AmpSuite

Seismic amplitudes offer vital information about explosion source characteristics, including discrimination and yield estimation. To take advantage of this, we developed an interactive Python package to measure, control data quality, generate broad area propagation models and perform discrimination and estimate yield. Propagation models are essential in support of transportable yield and broad area discrimination. The key benefit of this package will be its ability to continuously integrate data and new techniques. The AmpSuite framework will provide standardized, repeatable, and accurate model generation and characterization routines. The capability is crucial for monitoring agencies tasked with rapid and high-quality seismic event characterization. The AmpSuite software includes a series of independent modules to perform: • Direct Phase Amplitude Measurement and Storage • Coda Envelope Measurement and Storage • Data Quality Control • New Propagation Model Developments • Seismic Discrimination and Analysis • Yield Estimation and supporting utility software. The AmpSuite software provides comprehensive solutions for monitoring agencies seeking to optimize model generation and event analysis within a contemporary Python framework. Stakeholders (AFTAC) have begun to move towards the Python language for scientific analysis as a new workforce emerges.

Alfaro, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2017

SME Acceptability Determination For DWPF Process Control (U)

The statistical system described in this document is called the Product Composition Control System (PCCS). K. G. Brown and R. L. Postles were the originators and developers of this system as well as the authors of the first three versions of this technical basis document for PCCS. PCCS has guided acceptability decisions for the processing at the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) since the start of radioactive operations in 1996. The author of this revision to the document gratefully acknowledges the firm technical foundation that Brown and Postles established to support the ongoing successful operation at the DWPF. Their integration of the glass propertycomposition models, developed under the direction of C. M. Jantzen, into a coherent and robust control system, has served the DWPF well over the last 20+ years, even as new challenges, such as the introduction into the DWPF flowsheet of auxiliary streams from the Actinide Removal Process (ARP) and other processes, were met. The purpose of this revision is to provide a technical basis for modifications to PCCS required to support the introduction of waste streams from the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) into the DWPF flowsheet. An expanded glass composition region is anticipated by the introduction of waste streams from SWPF, and property-composition studies of that glass region have been conducted. Jantzen, once again, directed the development of glass property-composition models applicable for this expanded composition region. The author gratefully acknowledges the technical contributions of C.M. Jantzen leading to the development of these glass property-composition models. The integration of these models into the PCCS constraints necessary to administer future acceptability decisions for the processing at DWPF is provided by this sixth revision of this document.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) contribution to: Deciphering the role of mixed-material deposition and temperature on lithium-coated PFCs in NSTX-U high-performance plasmas: Collaborative UIUC & UTK Proposal (Final Report)

This report describes the final product of model development to decipher the role of mixed material deposition and temperature on lithium-coated PFCs in NSTX-U. The computational modeling approach used to address these specific questions involved a pragmatic multiscale materials modeling framework, with the use of reaction-diffusion based continuum simulations, through modifications to the SDTrimSP code. This pragmatic modeling was supplemented with a few, select parametric ab-initio and molecular dynamics simulations, to investigate the effect of lithium and mixed lithium-carbon-refractory metal chemistry and surface morphology and chemistry on erosion yields and deuterium uptake, including the role of temperature and boronization. The main progress of the project was to develop the major framework and structure of the model, although validated application of the model was limited as a result of the unplanned shutdown and outage of NSTX-U.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using Board Games as Subject Matter for Developing Expertise in Model-Based Systems Engineering

As more organizations transition from traditional document-centric systems engineering to a model-based approach, many are challenged to train their staff in new languages, tools, and methodologies, while managing the expectations of stakeholders and their expected model outcomes. In particular, challenges associated with learning a new modeling language and developing skills in the 'art' of modeling present organizations with formidable obstacles to realizing this transition. This paper hypothesizes that systems engineers may more readily learn how to correctly model with SysML, and develop intuition about the art of modeling and using patterns, if their learning references a commonly and thoroughly-understood subject, such as a board game. This paper presents a case for the use of board games as subject matter for new modelers. It demonstrates the concept with a sample model of Hasbro's popular board game, Monopoly, and discusses the limitations of this approach and potential adaptations that may broaden the applicability of the learned skills to projects. Finally, results from a small feasibility assessment and concepts for more formal study to evaluate the hypothesis are presented.

Model-Based Systems Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using Board Games as Subject Matter for Developing Expertise in Model-Based Systems Engineering

As more organizations transition from traditional document-centric systems engineering to a model-based approach, many are challenged to train their staff in new languages, tools, and methodologies, and manage the expectations of stakeholders and their expected model outcomes. In particular, challenges associated with learning a new modeling language and developing skills in the 'art' of modeling present organizations with formidable obstacles to realizing this transition. This paper hypothesizes that systems engineers may more readily learn how to correctly model with SysML, and develop intuition about the art of modeling and using patterns, if their learning references a commonly and thoroughly-understood subject matter, such as a board game. This paper presents a case for the use of board games as subject matter for new modelers, demonstrates the concept with a sample model of Hasbro's popular board game, Monopoly, and discusses the limitations of this approach and potential adaptations that may broaden the applicability of the learned skills to projects.

Systems Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds using Lagrangian Superdroplet Method in ERF

This study investigates the simulation of marine stratocumulus (stratoCu) clouds – common in many offshore and coastal wind energy regions - using Lagrangian Superdroplet Method (SDM) implemented in Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model. Developed by the Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), ERF is a high-resolution atmospheric modeling tool that relies on traditional bulk microphysics schemes. Under an LLNL-led Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project, SDM was integrated into ERF to improve cloud process fidelity by explicitly tracking individual “superdroplets”. This enables a realistic representation of the droplet size spectrum, cloud-atmosphere interactions, and potential feedbacks from wind plants on atmospheric flow and cloud structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Multibody Slosh Analysis for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) undergoes a series of thruster maneuvers to attain lunar orbit. The first of the series of lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuvers is crucial to the success of the mission. Therefore, it is important to characterize the disturbances acting on the spacecraft during this phase of the mission. This paper focuses on the internal disturbance force caused by fuel slosh and its impact on attitude control. During the first LOI maneuver (LOI-1), approximately 50% of the total fuel mass is used or roughly 25% of the spacecraft s wet mass, during the 38-minute burn. The forces imparted on the spacecraft from the fuel are dependent on the fill level of the two fuel tanks. During LOI-1, the fill level in both tanks varies greatly and thus so does the disturbance level caused by the fuel. It is therefore necessary to account for the time-varying mass properties of the spacecraft and the effects of the varying fuel levels during the entire 38-minute maneuver. Two simulations are developed in Mathworks s Simulink to analyze the fuel slosh effect. The first model, a baseline model, is a rigid body dynamics model where the fuel slosh is not modeled. The second is a multibody model, developed using a multibody dynamics toolbox, where each of the two fuel tanks and the remaining spacecraft body are treated as separate rigid bodies. The simulations are executed in a piece-wise fashion to account for the time-varying mass properties, and to accommodate the multibody toolbox. Disturbances caused by fuel slosh during both lunar and mission orbit insertions will be analyzed through simulation of different dynamics models. Results of the analysis will show the effects of the slosh disturbance on the spacecraft s attitude.

Shah, Neerav↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling, Performance Assessment, and Nodal Data Analysis of TRISO-Fueled Systems with Shift

This technical report documents several enhancements to the Shift Monte Carlo (MC) code under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in fiscal year (FY) 2022. Performance enhancements were added to Shift specifically for tristructural isotropic (TRISO)–fueled reactor systems and guided based on performance analysis in FY 2021. For the pebble performance model developed in previous studies, the runtime improved by ~ 91× compared to the original model and ~ 2× compared to the user-optimized model. Compared to Serpent, Shift is ~ 3× slower if Serpent delta-tracking is enabled but ~ 2× faster when delta-tracking is disabled. The multigroup cross section generation was improved through simplifying tally input definitions, porting several post-processing tally operations from Python scripts into the Shift code base, and accounting for production reactions in the scattering multiplicity. Progress was also made on two emerging capabilities: (1) the development of Titan (a Shift reactor physics user interface) and (2) initial investigation into path-length tallies for computing multigroup scattering matrices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of QSAR models to predict blood-brain barrier permeability

Assessing drug permeability across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) is important when evaluating the abuse potential of new pharmaceuticals as well as developing novel therapeutics that target central nervous system disorders. One of the gold-standard in vivo methods for determining BBB permeability is rodent log BB; however, like most in vivo methods, it is time-consuming and expensive. In the present study, two statistical-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to predict BBB permeability of drugs based on their chemical structure. The in vivo BBB permeability data were harvested for 921 compounds from publicly available literature, non-proprietary drug approval packages, and University of Washington’s Drug Interaction Database. The cross-validation performance statistics for the BBB models ranged from 82 to 85% in sensitivity and 80–83% in negative predictivity. Additionally, the performance of newly developed models was assessed using an external validation set comprised of 83 chemicals. Overall, performance of individual models ranged from 70 to 75% in sensitivity, 70–72% in negative predictivity, and 78–86% in coverage. The predictive performance was further improved to 93% in coverage by combining predictions across the two software programs. These new models can be rapidly deployed to predict blood brain barrier permeability of pharmaceutical candidates and reduce the use of experimental animals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Historical Trends in PM 2.5 -Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere

Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 -related premature mortality (PM 2.5 -mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM 2.5 -mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM 2.5 -mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM 2.5 -mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM 2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits, i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions. However, reductions in emissions of NH 3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NO x emission controls.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Determining Ice-Sheet Uplift Surrounding Subglacial Lakes with a Viscous Plate Model

We develop a viscous model of plate bending suitable for studying ice-sheet flexure due to subglacial lake filling and draining, and apply this model to determine the area of ice-sheet uplift surrounding a subglacial lake. The choice of a viscous model reflects our interest in Antarctic subglacial lakes, which can fill and drain on time scales of months to decades. Experiments with idealized lake shapes show that the size of the uplift area relative to lake area depends on subglacial water pressure and ice-sheet thickness, with the viscous material parameters scaling the magnitude of uplift rate within this area. The water pressure therefore has a strong control on the evolution of the lake shape and related subglacial hydrological development, but is not yet well constrained by observations. Due to the likelihood that ice flexure will affect subglacial lake filling and draining, we suggest that the insights of this study should be applied to development of a realistic ice sheet-hydrological coupled model.

ice sheets↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Loci/STREAM Sharp Interface Model Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization

This paper documents a model validation effort for the prediction of cryogenic propellant tank selfpressurization physics using the Loci/STREAM sharp interface CFD model developed at NASA MSFC. Cryogenic fluid management (CFM) applications for long duration spaceflight missions require accurate modeling of heat transfer and thermodynamics. Therefore, detailed validation of those physics is important to ensure simulation accuracy. In the past, the MSFC Propulsion Fluid Dynamics Branch has validated and used the Loci/STREAM Volume of Fluid (VOF) module extensively for propellant slosh applications, which are dominated by fluid motion. For cases where the interface gas/liquid interface is essentially static, the Loci/STREAM sharp interface was developed for more rapid and efficient CFM analysis. In the present study, Loci/STREAM sharp interface simulations were compared with the NASA K-site self-pressurization experiment of a flight weight, partially full, LH2 tank in normal gravity. This study investigated several parametric effects and made a number of important observations on the performance of the Loci/STREAM sharp interface method: - First, a homogeneous model was derived to verify the CFD model. The homogeneous model assumes both gas and liquid phases are uniform and are at saturation temperature. The predicted pressure rise rates at 3.5 W/m2 and 2.0 W/m2 with a 49% fill level are all lower than the experimental measurement. This is expected due to the observed temperature stratification near the gas-liquid interface during testing. - The k-w and k-e turbulence models predict comparable pressurization rates, which are much lower than the experiment measurement. On the other hand, the pressure values and pressurization rates from both models are almost the same as those of the homogeneous model. The current turbulence model is too diffusive and is not capable of capturing the thermal stratification in the liquid and ullage. - When using the laminar flow model, the pressurization rate is found to be very close to the experimental value when a quasi-steady flow field is allowed to develop by continuously venting the tank prior to pressurization as was done during testing. On the other hand, without initial venting, the rate is not constant. Additionally, the development time to reach a quasi-steady flow field differed from the experiment due to the lack of turbulent mixing away from the gas-liquid interface that is expected in reality. - Using the laminar flow model and appropriate initial conditioning, the pressurization rate is within 15% of the experimental value for 49% fill level at 3.5 W/m 2 and is within 18% for 2.0 W/m 2 heat loading. - Using the laminar flow model and appropriate initial conditioning, the pressurization rate is within 18% of the experimental value for a 29% fill level and within 15% for an 83% fill level.

H. Q. Yang↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Hanford High-Fluoride Waste Glass Property Data Development: Phase 1

This study focused on investigating the effects of fluorine concentration on simulated high-level waste glass properties to eventually establish a fluorine limit (as a single-component or multiple-component constraint) for glass formulations for high-fluoride Hanford wastes. This is a first step to provide data to understand the impacts of changing flowsheets on the mission duration and extent. A test matrix of 20 high-fluoride glasses was generated, and the chemical compositions were measured. The following properties were measured and tested against current model predictions: crystal formation after centerline canister cooling, crystallinity as a function of temperature, density, viscosity, electrical conductivity, toxic leaching characteristics using the toxicity characteristic leach profile (TCLP), product consistency using the product consistency test (PCT), and SO 3 solubility. Overall, current models failed to adequately predict most of the properties, possibly due to differences in compositional space used to generate the models and the current test matrix. Additional work is needed to more accurately assess the impacts of high-fluoride wastes on Hanford processing, including additional data collection over a broader composition region and model development for the key models of interest such as PCT and TCLP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Facilitating CCS Business Planning by Extending the Functionality of the SimCCS Integrated System Model

The application of integrated system models for evaluating carbon capture and storage technology has expanded steadily over the past few years. To date, such models have focused largely on hypothetical scenarios of complex source-sink matching involving numerous large-scale CO 2 emitters, and high-volume, continuous reservoirs such as deep saline formations to function as geologic sinks for carbon storage. Though these models have provided unique insight on the potential costs and feasibility of deploying complex networks of integrated infrastructure, there remains a pressing need to translate such insight to the business community if this technology is to ever achieve a truly meaningful impact in greenhouse gas mitigation. Here, we present a new integrated system modelling tool termed SimCCUS aimed at providing crucial decision support for businesses by extending the functionality of a previously developed model called SimCCS. The primary innovation of the SimCCUS tool development is the incorporation of stacked geological reservoir systems with explicit consideration of processes and costs associated with the operation of multiple CO 2 utilization and storage targets from a single geographic location. In such locations provide significant efficiencies through economies of scale, effectively minimizing CO 2 storage costs while simultaneously maximizing revenue streams via the utilization of CO 2 as a commodity for enhanced hydrocarbon recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗