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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune New River Estuary - Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) Results

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of development pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and increasing requirements for compliance with environmental regulations. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and to optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a minimum 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the first six years of the program (DCERP1) are presented here.The overarching objectives of DCERP are to: (1) understand the effects of military training activities, infrastructure development, and other coastal military installations; (2) develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate ecosystem health; and (3) recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.This data package contains a zipfile of results from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) used to collect current profiles throughout the New River Estuary in 2009: Teledyne RD Instrument’s acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) were deployed throughout the NRE to understand current flows and tidal extent. (Current velocity and water level data collected by the ADCPs were also used to validate a hydrodynamic model of the NRE.) Two ADCPS were deployed by Marker 12 and the Highway 172 bridge from late-February to early-July 2009. These ADCPs were attached to steel frames that rested on the sediment surface with the ADCP looking upward to make full water column profiles of water velocity minus a 1-m blanking between the instrument and sediment surface. Also attached to the steel frames were conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) sensors, which provided concomitant salinity, temperature, and water depth data with the ADCP current measurements. Two ADCPS were also deployed in close proximity to the AVPs in Stones and Morgan Bays from mid-July to mid-December 2009. These ADCPs were deployed flush to the estuary floor to maximize the full vertical sampling capability at these shallow stations and the AVPs collected coincidental temperature, salinity, and depth measurements. For all deployments, the ADCPs were programmed in fast ping-rate mode 12 using 20 pings per ensemble and collected profiles in 10-cm bins every 6 minutes yielding a standard deviation in velocity measurements of 1.27 cm s-1. Current velocity and water level data were analyzed to understand the tidal influence on circulation within the NRE. Harmonic analyses were performed to extract the dominant tidal constituents from the velocity and depth records using T-tide run in MATLAB (Pawlowicz et al., 2002). These measurements of tidal amplitude and phase were then used to validate the high-resolution Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Model of the NRE region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis

This project provides the Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) with strategic decision-support for the evaluation of its R&D portfolio by developing, validating, and applying a coherent methodology and consistent model framework to quantify the net effects of an expanding US bioeconomy. The framework fills an analysis gap previously identified by Peer Review and supports a related milestone in BETO's Multi-Year Program Plan. The framework was scoped with inputs from practitioners in academia, national laboratories, and federal agencies. The model is a top-down, economy-wide framework using a coherent methodology to compute environmental and socio-economic metrics. It is purposefully complementary to existing bottom-up, process-based techno-economic and life cycle assessment BETO tools and uses their data as inputs. Presently, the model covers several commercial and near-commercial biofuel routes and an emerging pathway for plastics upcycling. It covers temporal detail across four time-steps and is currently being expanded with a prospective modeling capability. The model has provided analyses for the Third Triennial Report to Congress (RtC3) on the environmental impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), among others. As part of this project, NREL also provides scientific support to BETO in the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy (IEA Bioenergy) Task 45 on Sustainability. Here, NREL evaluates and synthesizes activities that develop, compare, or apply metrics, methods, and tools to quantify sustainability effects of bioeconomy products. NREL also coordinates related national lab involvement and a BETO Working Group on Sustainable Land Management.

bioeconomy↗

Combined Cycle Power Generation Employing Pressure Gain Combustion

The Phase I program assessed the potential benefit of applying pressure gain combustion (PGC) technology to a natural gas combined cycle power plant. A conceptual design of the PGC integrated gas turbine was generated which was simulated in a detailed system modeling tool. The PGC integrated system was 1.93% more efficient, produced 3.09% more power, and reduced COE by 0.58%. Since the PGC system used had the same fuel flow rate as the baseline system, it also reduced CO 2 emissions by 3.09%. The PGC system did produce more NOx than standard systems, but even with the performanceand cost penalties associated with the cleanup system it is better in every measure. This technology benefits all of DOE’s stated program goals to improve plant efficiency, reduce CO 2 production, and reduce COE.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Virtual Test Bed (VTB): NRIC FY24 Program Review

NRIC: Deliver successful demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear energy EBRII Test Bed (DOME) ZPPR Test Bed (LOTUS) Virtual Test Bed (VTB): Accelerate deployment of advanced reactors by leveraging state-of-the-art ModSim tools to evaluate performance and safety Ok, but what is it? Library of Reference Model: database of advanced multiphysics advanced reactor models that users can download, edit, and re-run Continuous Software QA: linking repository to software development to avoid legacy issues while enabling rapid code development Virtual models of the test bed: developing demonstration-relevant models (e.g., candidates for DOME/LOTUS) to accelerate safety evaluations

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Improved Models of Long-Term Creep Behavior of High Performance Structural Alloys

In this program, QuesTek Innovations LLC, a leader in the field of computational materials design, proposes to develop a robust creep-modeling toolkit that expands its computational Materials by Design® technology, in order to predict the long-term creep performance of materials for base alloys and weldments in fossil energy systems under wide thermal and mechanical conditions. The Material Database Group of NIMS (National Institute for Material Science, JAPAN) provides reliable public data for long-term creep behavior over 300,000 hours (> 34 years) for a variety of materials including high Cr steels along with seminal work performed by EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) on creep failure of these steels. QuesTek would rely on these premier institutions for experimental data needed to calibrate models. The developed tool has wider applications than the state-of-the-art modeling tools. It includes the effects of chemistry variations, microstructure variation (weldments) etc .which is lacking in many available models requiring the model to be calibrated to large number of datasets for accurate predictions. A model based on fundamental mechanism has promises in application to different materials, other than the demonstrated material (Grade 91 steels) in the current program. As a result of such an effort, we envision greatly advancing the state-of-the-art modeling tools for creep life assessments of different materials.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

FY 2014 Continuation of Solicitation for the Office of Science Financial Assistance Program

On January 28-30, 2014, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) hosted its 14th National Confrerence and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Building Climate Solutions. The conference was held at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City near the Washington, DC National Airport. The conference engaged over 1,100 key individuals from a variety of fields, including natural and social sciences, humanities and engineering and government and policy, as well as business and civil society. They developed actionable partnerships, strategies and tactics that advanced solutions minimizing the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. The conference was organized around the two major areas where climate actions are necessary: [1] The Built Environment; and, [2] Agriculture and Natural Resources. This “multi-sector approach” of the conference enables participants to work across traditional boundaries of discipline, science, policy and application by engaging a diverse team of scientists, public- and private-sector program managers, and policy-makers. The confernce was two and a half days long. During this time, over 200 speakers presented in 8 keynote addresses, 7 plenary roundtable discussions, 30 symposia and 23 workshops. The goal of the workshops was to generate additional action through development of improved strategies, tools, and partnerships. During the workshops, participants developed actionable outcomes, committed to further collaboration and implementation, and outlined follow-up activities for post-conference. A list of recommendations from the workshop follows this summary. NCSE’s annual conference has become a signature event for the organization, recognized for its notable presenters, innovative programming, and outcome-oriented approach. Each year, over 1,100 participants attend the event, representing federal agencies, higher education institutions, state and local governments, non-governmental and civic organizations, businesses, and international entities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing the oxidation kinetics of small permalloy particles

The oxidation of permalloys is important to apply in a wide range. The oxidation and diffusion mechanisms of small permalloy particles with different Fe content are studied by using thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) and microstructure characterizations. Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}/(Ni, Fe){sub 3}O{sub 4} plays a key role in the morphology evolution and diffusion mechanisms of small NiFe particles upon oxidation. The activation energies of grain boundary diffusion for the NiFe alloys increase from 141 kJ/mol to 208 kJ/mol as the Fe content increases from 0 to ~50 wt%. We have developed a diffusion process resolved temperature programed oxidation (PR-TPO) analysis method. Three diffusion mechanisms have been recognized by using this method: In addition to the grain boundary diffusion and lattice diffusion, our TGA analysis suggests that the phase conversion from Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} to (Ni, Fe){sub 3}O{sub 4} induces diffusion change and affects the diffusion process at the intermediate temperature. Relevant oxidation kinetics and diffusion mechanisms are discussed. - Graphical abstract: The oxidation mechanisms of small Permalloy particles with different Fe content is studied by using thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) and microstructure characterizations. The activation energies of grain boundary diffusion for the NiFe alloys increases from 140 kJ/mol to 208 kJ/mol as the Fe content increases from 0 to 50 wt% as determined by TGA. We have developed a diffusion process resolved temperature programed oxidation (DPR-TPO) analysis method, and three diffusion mechanisms have been recognized by using this method: In addition to the well-known grain boundary diffusion and lattice diffusion, we found that the phase conversion from Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} to (Ni, Fe){sub 3}O{sub 4} will induce diffusion changes and affect the diffusion process at the intermediate temperature. The diffusion processes can be characterized by the corresponding characteristic peak temperatures in temperature programmed oxidation (TPO) analysis. This work not only give insight knowledge about the oxidation and diffusion processes of small permalloy particles, but also, provides a useful tool for analyzing solid-gas reactions of other materials. - Highlights: • The oxidation kinetics of small NiFe particles were studied by using thermoanalysis. • Grain boundary, lattice, and phase conversion induced diffusions were recognized. • The activation energy of oxidation increases with the Fe content in the alloy. • Each diffusion process corresponds to a characteristic temperature in TPO analysis. • NiFe alloys with ~5–10 wt% Fe content have the lowest oxidation rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

RISMC industry application #1 (ECCS/LOCA). Core characterization automation: Lattice codes interface for PHISICS/RELAP5-3D

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) is currently proposing rule-making “10 CFR 50.46c” to revise the loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) and emergency core cooling system (ECCS) acceptance criteria to include the effects of higher burn-up on cladding performance. The key implications of this proposition are that the cladding performance cannot be evaluated anymore as separated from other disciplines, but needs to be evaluated in a coupled manner with other physics. The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway initiated several programs at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support the industry in the transition to the new rule. One of these programs is the Industry Application #1 (IA1). IA1’s goal is to develop an Integrated Evaluation Model (IEM) called LOCA Toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This tool connects five major disciplines involved in LOCA analysis, among them is (automated) core design (CD-A). Here, this paper focuses solely on the design of LOTUS' CD-A module as well as a demonstration application of the CD-A module to a generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The demonstration of the other LOTUS disciplines together with a demonstration example of the final risk-informed safety margin analysis is published in a separate paper. LOTUS is meant to provide the methodology framework into which the user can plug his established tools and codes. With the CD-A, the plant owner/operator will characterize his core design with the tools he has. He will then integrate his tools/methods into the LOTUS framework for the downstream safety analysis. For the current CD-A demonstration, the tools used are the already coupled codes PHISICS and RELAP5-3D, while cross section generation is done using the Studsvik lattice code HELIOS-2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine-Learned Force Field for Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Nonequilibrium Ammonia Synthesis on Iron Catalysts

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is one of the most important industrial chemicals. The conventional NH 3 synthesis method-the Haber–Bosch process-converts atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) into NH 3 using H 2 with an iron (Fe) catalyst. However, this process requires high pressures (100–200 atm) and temperatures (700–800 K) near thermal equilibrium. Recently, Fe-based nanocatalysts have been reported to produce promising NH 3 yields under atmospheric pressures and temperature-modulated nonequilibrium conditions. Understanding the mechanism of nonequilibrium catalysis with programmed temperature variation could help to optimize this fully electrified and less energy-intensive process. Although reactive molecular dynamics (RMD) simulations can be a useful tool to model nonequilibrium catalytic processes, they require the development of accurate force fields (i.e., interatomic potentials). Here, we present a machine-learned (ML) force field within the Deep Potential MD (DPMD) framework, trained using periodic density functional theory (DFT) calculations, to model NH 3 synthesis on Fe catalysts with various surface adsorbates such as *N, *H, *N 2 , *H 2 , *NH, *NH 2 , and *NH 3 . Here, we generated the DFT data from static models of elementary reactions on the most stable (110) surface of body-centered cubic Fe, which then were augmented by data from constant number of particles–volume–temperature (NVT) DFT-MD trajectories at various temperatures. Finally, we utilized the fully optimized ML force field to investigate reaction dynamics at an Fe(110) surface at linearly increasing temperatures using NVT-DPMD simulations. Our simulations indicate that pulsed temperature ramping could prove favorable for NH3 synthesis. For example, we conducted ramping under multiple sets of conditions: (i) from 900 to 1200 K over periods of 0.1–0.3 ns for Fe surfaces precovered with N or NH along with H; and (ii) from 300 to 600 K over 0.1–0.3 ns for Fe surfaces precovered with NH 3 . While our simulations so far are limited to short time scales (very rapid heating), these observations shed light on the mechanism of the high NH 3 synthesis rate achieved in a novel temperature-modulated nonequilibrium catalytic reactor using pulsed heating and cooling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Recent Developments in the Design of Vertical Borehole Ground Heat Exchangers for Cost Reduction and Thermal Energy Storage

Ground source (geothermal) heat pumps (GSHPs) can meet the thermal demands of buildings in an energy-efficient manner. The current high installation costs and long payback period limit the attractiveness of GSHP installation in the United States. Vertical borehole ground heat exchangers (VBGHEs), which are commonly used in GSHP systems, contribute most to the cost premium of GSHPs. Reducing the cost of VBGHEs could help increase market penetration of GSHP systems. This paper reviews recent developments for VBGHEs, including improvements in borehole heat transfer and borehole field layout, integration with thermal energy storage, and new design tools. Improvements in the borehole design and materials are more likely to be justified when the ground has high thermal conductivity. Integrating thermal energy storage can provide additional value to the GSHP system, especially when flexible electric demand at buildings becomes more valuable. Here, advanced design tools for VBGHEs that account for the thermal response of irregularly shaped borehole fields and that are more closely integrated with whole-building energy simulation programs may facilitate more innovations and optimization of GSHP system designs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

TH-E-19A-01: Quality and Safety in Radiation Therapy

Clinical radiotherapy data clearly demonstrate the link between the quality and safety of radiation treatments and the outcome for patients. The medical physicist plays an essential role in this process. To ensure the highest quality treatments, the medical physicist must understand and employ modern quality improvement techniques. This extends well beyond the duties traditionally associated with prescriptive QA measures. This session will review the current best practices for improving quality and safety in radiation therapy. General elements of quality management will be reviewed including: what makes a good quality management structure, the use of prospective risk analysis such as FMEA, and the use of incident learning. All of these practices are recommended in society-level documents and are incorporated into the new Practice Accreditation program developed by ASTRO. To be effective, however, these techniques must be practical in a resource-limited environment. This session will therefore focus on practical tools such as the newly-released radiation oncology incident learning system, RO-ILS, supported by AAPM and ASTRO. With these general constructs in mind, a case study will be presented of quality management in an SBRT service. An example FMEA risk assessment will be presented along with incident learning examples including root cause analysis. As the physicist's role as “quality officer” continues to evolve it will be essential to understand and employ the most effective techniques for quality improvement. This session will provide a concrete overview of the fundamentals in quality and safety. Learning Objectives: Recognize the essential elements of a good quality management system in radiotherapy. Understand the value of incident learning and the AAPM/ASTRO ROILS incident learning system. Appreciate failure mode and effects analysis as a risk assessment tool and its use in resource-limited environments. Understand the fundamental principles of good error proofing that extends beyond traditional prescriptive QA measures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

WE-D-BRA-01: FEATURED PRESENTATION and BEST IN PHYSICS (THERAPY): Predicting Potentially Problematic VMAT Treatment Plans Before Patient Specific QA Measurements

Purpose: Several promising IMRT QA tools have been developed in recent years to combat problems found in the lack of sensitivity in planar dose measurements analyzed using consensus gamma analysis criteria. The increased complexity and added information with such devices adds not only increased time, but new challenges in determining endpoints for pass/fail criteria. Using a large cohort of previously measured planar IMRT QA data, it may be possible to correlate potentially problematic plans with calculated plan metrics that can be done a priori, such that these tools can be used only in clinically relevant situations. Methods: 90 previously measured, clinically delivered VMAT plans were exported in DICOM RT format. Using a Matlab program, plan metrics were computed based on a previously developed set of equations (Du et al. 2014). These metrics included MU-weighted beam irregularity, which quantifies an MLC shape’s deviation from that of a circle. Machine delivery parameters such as MU delivered per degree and leaf movement in millimeters per MU were also calculated. Based on a previous analysis of 394 IMRT QA measurements, a “failing” plan was defined as one with less than 85% gamma pass rate when computed at 1% dose difference and 2 mm distance to agreement; 16 of the 90 plans were identified as failing Results: A ROC curve was generated with an AUC of 0.9409. All 16 outliers were detected with a specificity of 85.1% when using a threshold value based on a linear combination of the MU-weighted plan irregularity and the leaf speed in mm/degree (average MU delivered per degree multiplied by average leaf movement in mm per MU). Conclusion: This data supports that potentially problematic VMAT plans can possibly be predicted before measurement by assessing the MU-weighted irregularity of the MLC shapes combined with the averaged leaf speed of the MLC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Automated Comparison of Building Energy Simulation Engines [Slides]

This presentation describes the BEopt comparative test suite, which is a tool that facilitates the automated comparison of building energy simulation engines. It also demonstrates how the test suite is improving the accuracy of building energy simulation programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

University of Oklahoma - High Energy Physics (Final Report)

The High Energy Physics program at the University of Oklahoma, Pat Skubic, Principal Investigator, is attempting to understand nature at the deepest level using the most advanced experimental and theoretical tools. The four experimental faculty, Brad Abbott, Phil Gutierrez, Pat Skubic, and Mike Strauss, together with post-doctoral associates and graduate students, are finishing their work as part of the DØ collaboration at Fermilab, and increasingly focusing their investigations at the Large Hadron Collidor (LHC) as part of the ATLAS Collaboration. Work at the LHC has become even more exciting with the recent discovery by ATLAS and the other collaboration, CMS, of the long-sought Higgs boson, which plays a key role in generating masses for the elementary constituents of matter. Work of the OUHEP group has been in the three areas of hardware, software, and analysis. Now that the Higgs boson has been discovered, completing the Standard Model of fundamental physics, new efforts will focus on finding hints of physics beyond the standard model, such as supersymmetry. The OUHEP theory group (Kim Milton, PI) also consists of four faculty members, Howie Baer, Chung Kao, Kim Milton, and Yun Wang, and associated students and postdocs. They are involved in understanding fundamental issues in formulating theories of the microworld, and in proposing models that carry us past the Standard Model, which is an incomplete description of nature. They therefore work in close concert with their experimental colleagues. One also can study fundamental physics by looking at the large scale structure of the universe; in particular the "dark energy" that seems to be causing the universe to expand at an accelerating rate, effectively makes up about 3/4 of the energy in the universe, and yet is totally unidentified. Dark energy and dark matter, which together account for nearly all of the energy in the universe, are an important probe of fundamental physics at the very shortest distances, or at the very highest energies. The outcomes of the group's combined experimental and theoretical research will be an improved understanding of nature, at the highest energies reachable, from which applications to technological innovation will surely result, as they always have from such studies in the past.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PVMapper: Report on the Second Public Opinion Survey

This report has been developed as an integral part of the PVMapper project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s SunShot program. The objective of the SunShot program is to reduce the total costs of solar energy systems. The scope of PVMapper is to develop a geographic information system (GIS) based project planning tool to identify optimal utility-scale solar facility sites. The specific objectives of the project are to 1) develop the software on an open-source platform; 2) integrate the appropriate data sets and GIS layers; 3) include a measure of social risk and public acceptance; 4) enable customization of variable weights; 5) provide a free and accessible platform for software download; and 6) provide a sustainability plan to ensure future relevance of the software. When completed, PVMapper is intended to be used by solar developers, Authorities Having Jurisdiction (AHJs), and other interested parties. This project supports SunShot’s objective by reducing the non-hardware balance of system costs (“soft costs”) for utility-scale solar project development. In order to accomplish the third project objective – including a measure of social risk and public acceptance within PVMapper – the project team has developed a time-series public opinion survey, administered yearly over the course of the three-year project. This report highlights the results and preliminary analyses from the second survey in this series. While the results of this survey are valuable to both PVMapper and future utility-scale solar development, the time-series design is extremely important. The completion of the series enables the extension of the dataset to much richer information. For example, the research team altered this iteration to sharpen the focus on specific topics (those posing potentially higher risks) and target specific locations in the oversample (such as communities near existing facilities). Using similar approaches for each iteration leads to an increasingly greater amount of detail regarding siting risks. The need for this extended dataset to aid in siting utility-scale solar projects is evident, as developers continue to scale back initial plans due to unidentified or incorrectly quantified social risks. It should be noted that this report provides the complete dataset from the survey, encompassing the wide-ranging responses from all of the survey questions. Although the methods used to integrate these data into PVMapper’s siting algorithms is not the purpose of this report, allusions to integration can be found in the discussions surrounding the design of questions and types of data to be used.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Stochastic Modeling of Radioactive Material Releases

Nonreactor nuclear facilities operated under the approval authority of the U.S. Department of Energy use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge or exceed dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated design basis events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines or exceed the guidelines for members of the public or workers, merit selection of safety structures, systems, or components or other controls to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, has developed a portable and simple to use software application called SODA (Stochastic Objective Decision-Aide) that stochastically calculates the radiation dose associated with hypothetical radiological material release scenarios. Rather than producing a point estimate of the dose, SODA produces a dose distribution result to allow a deeper understanding of the dose potential. SODA allows users to select the distribution type and parameter values for all of the input variables used to perform the dose calculation. SODA then randomly samples each distribution input variable and calculates the overall resulting dose distribution. In cases where an input variable distribution is unknown, a traditional single point value can be used. SODA was developed using the MATLAB coding framework. The software application has a graphical user input. SODA can be installed on both Windows and Mac computers and does not require MATLAB to function. SODA provides improved risk understanding leading to better informed decision making associated with establishing nuclear facility material-at-risk limits and safety structure, system, or component selection. It is important to note that SODA does not replace or compete with codes such as MACCS or RSAC, rather it is viewed as an easy to use supplemental tool to help improve risk understanding and support better informed decisions. The work was funded through a grant from the DOE Nuclear Safety Research and Development Program.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Planning for Pre-Exascale Platform Environment (Fiscal Year 2015 Level 2 Milestone 5216)

This Plan for ASC Pre-Exascale Platform Environments document constitutes the deliverable for the fiscal year 2015 (FY15) Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program Level 2 milestone Planning for Pre-Exascale Platform Environment. It acknowledges and quantifies challenges and recognized gaps for moving the ASC Program towards effective use of exascale platforms and recommends strategies to address these gaps. This document also presents an update to the concerns, strategies, and plans presented in the FY08 predecessor document that dealt with the upcoming (at the time) petascale high performance computing (HPC) platforms. With the looming push towards exascale systems, a review of the earlier document was appropriate in light of the myriad architectural choices currently under consideration. The ASC Program believes the platforms to be fielded in the 2020s will be fundamentally different systems that stress ASC’s ability to modify codes to take full advantage of new or unique features. In addition, the scale of components will increase the difficulty of maintaining an errorfree system, thus driving new approaches to resilience and error detection/correction. The code revamps of the past, from serial- to vector-centric code to distributed memory to threaded implementations, will be revisited as codes adapt to a new message passing interface (MPI) plus “x” or more advanced and dynamic programming models based on architectural specifics. Development efforts are already underway in some cases, and more difficult or uncertain aspects of the new architectures will require research and analysis that may inform future directions for program choices. In addition, the potential diversity of system architectures may require parallel if not duplicative efforts to analyze and modify environments, codes, subsystems, libraries, debugging tools, and performance analysis techniques as well as exploring new monitoring methodologies. It is difficult if not impossible to selectively eliminate some of these activities until more information is available through simulations of potential architectures, analysis of systems designs, and informed study of commodity technologies that will be the constituent parts of future platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic Methods Applied to Power System Operations with Renewable Energy: A Review

Renewable energy resources have been rapidly integrated into power systems in many parts of the world, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable supply of electricity. Wind and solar resources also introduce new challenges for system operations and planning in terms of economics and reliability because of their variability and uncertainty. Operational strategies based on stochastic optimization have been developed recently to address these challenges. In general terms, these stochastic strategies either embed uncertainties into the scheduling formulations (e.g., the unit commitment [UC] problem) in probabilistic forms or develop more appropriate operating reserve strategies to take advantage of advanced forecasting techniques. Other approaches to address uncertainty are also proposed, where operational feasibility is ensured within an uncertainty set of forecasting intervals. In this report, a comprehensive review is conducted to present the state of the art through Spring 2015 in the area of stochastic methods applied to power system operations with high penetration of renewable energy. Chapters 1 and 2 give a brief introduction and overview of power system and electricity market operations, as well as the impact of renewable energy and how this impact is typically considered in modeling tools. Chapter 3 reviews relevant literature on operating reserves and specifically probabilistic methods to estimate the need for system reserve requirements. Chapter 4 looks at stochastic programming formulations of the UC and economic dispatch (ED) problems, highlighting benefits reported in the literature as well as recent industry developments. Chapter 5 briefly introduces alternative formulations of UC under uncertainty, such as robust, chance-constrained, and interval programming. Finally, in Chapter 6, we conclude with the main observations from our review and important directions for future work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗