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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Extension of the sasCIF format and its applications for data processing and deposition

Recent advances in small-angle scattering (SAS) experimental facilities and data analysis methods have prompted a dramatic increase in the number of users and of projects conducted, causing an upsurge in the number of objects studied, experimental data available and structural models generated. To organize the data and models and make them accessible to the community, the Task Forces on SAS and hybrid methods for the International Union of Crystallography and the Worldwide Protein Data Bank envisage developing a federated approach to SAS data and model archiving. Within the framework of this approach, the existing databases may exchange information and provide independent but synchronized entries to users. At present, ways of exchanging information between the various SAS databases are not established, leading to possible duplication and incompatibility of entries, and limiting the opportunities for data-driven research for SAS users. In this work, a solution is developed to resolve these issues and provide a universal exchange format for the community, based on the use of the widely adopted crystallographic information framework (CIF). The previous version of the sasCIF format, implemented as an extension of the core CIF dictionary, has been available since 2000 to facilitate SAS data exchange between laboratories. The sasCIF format has now been extended to describe comprehensively the necessary experimental information, results and models, including relevant metadata for SAS data analysis and for deposition into a database. Processing tools for these files ( sasCIFtools ) have been developed, and these are available both as standalone open-source programs and integrated into the SAS Biological Data Bank, allowing the export and import of data entries as sasCIF files. Software modules to save the relevant information directly from beamline data-processing pipelines in sasCIF format are also developed. Lastly, this update of sasCIF and the relevant tools are an important step in the standardization of the way SAS data are presented and exchanged, to make the results easily accessible to users and to promote further the application of SAS in the structural biology community.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active multi-mode data analysis to improve fault diagnosis in AHUs

Faults in heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems can lead to increased energy consumption, occupant comfort issues, and reduced equipment lifetime. Commercial fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) tools has been increasingly deployed in U.S. commercial buildings. While they are helping to achieve energy efficiency and operational reliability, there remain gaps in their fault diagnostic capabilities. The diagnostic results often contain multiple distinct candidate root causes (CRCs) or offer no insight into CRCs. This study developed a novel active rule-based multi-mode data analysis method to enhance diagnostic resolution by applying proven rule sets and additional new rules to data from multiple known operational modes. The proposed method was demonstrated using enhanced air handling unit performance assessment rule sets and validated with the simulated data of two air handling units. New metrics, namely, reduced number of CRCs and improvement ratio, were developed to quantify the improvement of fault diagnostic resolution. The validation results showed that the proposed method effectively reduced the number of CRCs in contrast to analyzing data solely for a single mode of operation. It achieved a median improvement ratio of 80% in 19 test cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1990

Shape optimization and CAD

Structural optimization has attracted the attention since the days of Galileo. Olhoff and Taylor have produced an excellent overview of the classical research within this field. However, the interest in structural optimization has increased greatly during the last decade due to the advent of reliable general numerical analysis methods and the computer power necessary to use them efficiently. This has created the possibility of developing general numerical systems for shape optimization. Several authors, eg., Esping; Braibant & Fleury; Bennet & Botkin; Botkin, Yang, and Bennet; and Stanton have published practical and successful applications of general optimization systems. Ding and Homlein have produced extensive overviews of available systems. Furthermore, a number of commercial optimization systems based on well-established finite element codes have been introduced. Systems like ANSYS, IDEAS, OASIS, and NISAOPT are widely known examples. In parallel to this development, the technology of computer aided design (CAD) has gained a large influence on the design process of mechanical engineering. The CAD technology has already lived through a rapid development driven by the drastically growing capabilities of digital computers. However, the systems of today are still considered as being only the first generation of a long row of computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) systems. These systems to come will offer an integrated environment for design, analysis, and fabrication of products of almost any character. Thus, the CAD system could be regarded as simply a database for geometrical information equipped with a number of tools with the purpose of helping the user in the design process. Among these tools are facilities for structural analysis and optimization as well as present standard CAD features like drawing, modeling, and visualization tools. The state of the art of structural optimization is that a large amount of mathematical and mechanical techniques are available for the solution of single problems. By implementing collections of the available techniques into general software systems, operational environments for structural optimization have been created. The forthcoming years must bring solutions to the problem of integrating such systems into more general design environments. The result of this work should be CAD systems for rational design in which structural optimization is one important design tool among many others.

Rasmussen, John↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large-Scale Image Analysis for Investigating Spatio-Temporal Changes in Nuclear DNA Damage Caused by Nitrogen Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Jets

The effective clinical application of atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) treatments requires a well-founded methodology that can describe the interactions between the plasma jet and a treated sample and the temporal and spatial changes that result from the treatment. In this study, we developed a large-scale image analysis method to identify the cell-cycle stage and quantify damage to nuclear DNA in single cells. The method was then tested and used to examine spatio-temporal distributions of nuclear DNA damage in two cell lines from the same anatomic location, namely the oral cavity, after treatment with a nitrogen APPJ. One cell line was malignant, and the other, nonmalignant. The results showed that DNA damage in cancer cells was maximized at the plasma jet treatment region, where the APPJ directly contacted the sample, and declined radially outward. As incubation continued, DNA damage in cancer cells decreased slightly over the first 4 h before rapidly decreasing by approximately 60% at 8 h post-treatment. In nonmalignant cells, no damage was observed within 1 h after treatment, but damage was detected 2 h after treatment. Notably, the damage was 5-fold less than that detected in irradiated cancer cells. Moreover, examining damage with respect to the cell cycle showed that S phase cells were more susceptible to DNA damage than either G1 or G2 phase cells. The proposed methodology for large-scale image analysis is not limited to APPJ post-treatment applications and can be utilized to evaluate biological samples affected by any type of radiation, and, more so, the cell-cycle classification can be used on any cell type with any nuclear DNA staining.

cellular imaging↗
NASA NTRS1994

Experience Report: Using Formal Methods for Requirements Analysis of Critical Spacecraft Software

Formal specification and analysis of requirements continues to gain support as a method for producing more reliable software. However, the introduction of formal methods to a large software project is difficult, due in part to the unfamiliarity of the specification languages and the lack of graphics. This paper reports results of an investigation into the effectiveness of formal methods as an aid to the requirements analysis of critical, system-level fault-protection software on a spacecraft currently under development. Our experience indicates that formal specification and analysis can enhance the accuracy of the requirements and add assurance prior to design development in this domain.

Formal↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantitative Analysis of {sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Identifies Novel Prognostic Imaging Biomarkers in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To identify prognostic biomarkers in pancreatic cancer using high-throughput quantitative image analysis. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board–approved study, we retrospectively analyzed images and outcomes for 139 locally advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The overall population was split into a training cohort (n=90) and a validation cohort (n=49) according to the time of treatment. We extracted quantitative imaging characteristics from pre-SBRT {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography, including statistical, morphologic, and texture features. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was built to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using 162 robust image features. To avoid over-fitting, we applied the elastic net to obtain a sparse set of image features, whose linear combination constitutes a prognostic imaging signature. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association with OS, and concordance index (CI) was used to evaluate the survival prediction accuracy. Results: The prognostic imaging signature included 7 features characterizing different tumor phenotypes, including shape, intensity, and texture. On the validation cohort, univariate analysis showed that this prognostic signature was significantly associated with OS (P=.002, hazard ratio 2.74), which improved upon conventional imaging predictors including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and total legion glycolysis (P=.018-.028, hazard ratio 1.51-1.57). On multivariate analysis, the proposed signature was the only significant prognostic index (P=.037, hazard ratio 3.72) when adjusted for conventional imaging and clinical factors (P=.123-.870, hazard ratio 0.53-1.30). In terms of CI, the proposed signature scored 0.66 and was significantly better than competing prognostic indices (CI 0.48-0.64, Wilcoxon rank sum test P<1e-6). Conclusion: Quantitative analysis identified novel {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography image features that showed improved prognostic value over conventional imaging metrics. If validated in large, prospective cohorts, the new prognostic signature might be used to identify patients for individualized risk-adaptive therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS1989

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivat

Ranaudo, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prediction of thyroid C-cell carcinogenicity after chronic administration of GLP1-R agonists in rodents

Increased incidence of C-cell carcinogenicity has been observed for glucagon-like-protein-1 receptor (GLP-1r) agonists in rodents. It is suggested that the duration of exposure is an indicator of carcinogenic potential in rodents of the different products on the market. Furthermore, the role of GLP-1-related mechanisms in the induction of C-cell carcinogenicity has gained increased attention by regulatory agencies. This study proposes an integrative pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) framework to identify explanatory factors and characterize differences in carcinogenic potential of the GLP-1r agonist products. PK models for four products (exenatide QW (once weekly), exenatide BID (twice daily), liraglutide and lixisenatide) were developed using nonlinear mixed effects modelling. Predicted exposure was subsequently linked to GLP-1r stimulation using in vitro GLP-1r potency data. A logistic regression model was then applied to exenatide QW and liraglutide data to assess the relationship between GLP-1r stimulation and thyroid C-cell hyperplasia incidence as pre-neoplastic predictor of a carcinogenic response. The model showed a significant association between predicted GLP-1r stimulation and C-cell hyperplasia after 2 years of treatment. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using lixisenatide, for which hyperplasia data were accurately described during the validation step. The use of a model-based approach provided insight into the relationship between C-cell hyperplasia and GLP-1r stimulation for all four products, which is not possible with traditional data analysis methods. It can be concluded that both pharmacokinetics (exposure) and pharmacodynamics (potency for GLP-1r) factors determine C-cell hyperplasia incidence in rodents. Our work highlights the pharmacological basis for GLP-1r agonist-induced C-cell carcinogenicity. The concept is promising for application to other drug classes. - Highlights: • An integrative PKPD model is applied to study GLP-1r agonist carcinogenicity. • C-cell carcinogenicity is impacted by both pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. • The relation of GLP-1r stimulation and C-cell hyperplasia appears drug-independent. • Understanding carcinogenic risk needs a pharmacological basis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
NASA NTRS2000

Fractal correlation properties of R-R interval dynamics and mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Preliminary data suggest that the analysis of R-R interval variability by fractal analysis methods may provide clinically useful information on patients with heart failure. The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic power of new fractal and traditional measures of R-R interval variability as predictors of death after acute myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Time and frequency domain heart rate (HR) variability measures, along with short- and long-term correlation (fractal) properties of R-R intervals (exponents alpha(1) and alpha(2)) and power-law scaling of the power spectra (exponent beta), were assessed from 24-hour Holter recordings in 446 survivors of acute myocardial infarction with a depressed left ventricular function (ejection fraction </=35%). During a mean+/-SD follow-up period of 685+/-360 days, 114 patients died (25.6%), with 75 deaths classified as arrhythmic (17.0%) and 28 as nonarrhythmic (6.3%) cardiac deaths. Several traditional and fractal measures of R-R interval variability were significant univariate predictors of all-cause mortality. Reduced short-term scaling exponent alpha(1) was the most powerful R-R interval variability measure as a predictor of all-cause mortality (alpha(1) <0.75, relative risk 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.5 to 4.2, P<0.001). It remained an independent predictor of death (P<0.001) after adjustment for other postinfarction risk markers, such as age, ejection fraction, NYHA class, and medication. Reduced alpha(1) predicted both arrhythmic death (P<0.001) and nonarrhythmic cardiac death (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the fractal characteristics of short-term R-R interval dynamics yields more powerful prognostic information than the traditional measures of HR variability among patients with depressed left ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic PET Measures of Tau Accumulation in Cognitively Normal Older Adults and Alzheimer’s Disease Patients Measured Using [18F] THK-5351

Background [ 18F]THK5351, a recently-developed positron emission tomography (PET) tracer for measuring tau neurofibrillary tangle accumulation, may help researchers examine aging, disease, and tau pathology in living human brains. We examined THK5351 tracer pharmacokinetics to define an optimal acquisition time for static late images. Methods Primary measurements were calculation of regional values of distribution volume ratios (DVR) and standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in 6 healthy older control and 10 Alzheimer’s disease (AD) participants. We examined associations between DVR and SUVR, searching for a 20 min SUVR time window that was stable and comparable to DVR. We additionally examined diagnostic group differences in this 20 min SUVR. Results In healthy controls, [18F]THK5351 uptake was low, with increased temporal relative to frontal binding. In AD, regional uptake was substantially higher than in healthy controls, with temporal exceeding frontal binding. Retention in cerebellar gray matter, which was used as the reference region, was low compared to other regions. Both DVR and SUVR values showed minimal change over time after 40 min. SUVR 20–40, 30–50, and 40–60 min were most consistently correlated with DVR; SUVR 40–60 min, the most stable time window, was used in further analyses. Significant (AD > healthy control) group differences existed in temporoparietal regions, with marginal medial temporal differences. We found high basal ganglia SUVR 40–60 min signal, with no group differences. Conclusions We examined THK5351, a new PET tracer for measuring tau accumulation, and compared multiple analysis methods for quantifying regional tracer uptake. SUVR 40–60 min performed optimally when examining 20 min SUVR windows, and appears to be a practical method for quantifying relative regional tracer retention. The results of this study offer clinical potential, given the usefulness of THK5351-PET as a biomarker of tau pathology in aging and disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Experimental and Analytical Characterization of Fluted-Core Sandwich Composite Structures

As composite materials continue to gain wider acceptance for aerospace primary structures, experimental characterization and analysis methods must evolve, especially if new or underutilized composite structural concepts are to be successfully implemented. One such potentially underutilized concept is the fluted-core sandwich composite, which consists of facesheets separated by angled web members, and has a number of potential advantages over traditional-core (honeycomb, foam, etc.) sandwich composites. However, fluted-core sandwich composites also exhibit a behaviors not seen with traditional-core sandwich composites. For example, stable local buckling that can lead to material failure can occur in the facesheets between webs or in the webs themselves. Additionally, in the direction perpendicular to the webs, the effective transverse-shear stiffness is largely determined by the bending stiffnesses of the facesheets and the webs and is generally much lower than in the direction parallel to the webs. These local buckling and transverse-shear behaviors can have a large influence on material failure and global buckling, respectively. Thus, it is important to accurately characterize and model these behaviors. In this report, a series of experiments designed to elicit some of these fluted-core sandwich composite structural responses is discussed and the results are compared with results from a previously developed finite element analysis approach; qualitative and quantitative agreement between the experiment and analysis is shown.

Marc R. Schultz↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fourier Analysis and Loss Modeling for Inductive Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging with Reduced Stray Field

With the growth of electric vehicle (EV) popularity, different charging options to increase user convenience and reduce charging times are being considered and researched. Among these, inductive wireless power transfer (WPT) systems for EVs are being designed to meet specifications such as stray field, power level, efficiency, misalignment tolerance, and ground clearance, which are all heavily influenced by the coil geometry. The proposed Fourier Analysis Method (FAM) is an analytical method to directly design coil geometries to meet stray field and power level requirements through an optimization of Fourier basis function coefficients. The outputs of the optimization are complex, planar coil geometries that meet the power level and stray field constraints with minimized loss factors. Contours of these potentials determine the coil conductor paths and loss models predict the system efficiency and performance over misalignment. The Fourier representation of the geometry is used to conveniently calculate the coupling over misalignment, external proximity effect loss, and ferrite loss. A 6.6 kW prototype WPT system with low stray field and high efficiency is built from the optimization results to validate the models and showcase the usefulness of the FAM design approach.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Increasing the Statistical Rigor of Cross-Species Differential Expression Analysis

Microgravity inflicts substantial, but undercharacterized, pressure on organisms that induces metabolic responses such as increased microbial virulence and antibiotic resistance, altered organ weights in developing rats, and loss of bone tissue in astronauts. Numerous studies have analyzed the effects of microgravity on specific organisms, tissues, or test conditions, but these projects are necessarily limited by the small sample size of space research. Increasing the sample size of spaceflight studies is non-trivial; however, pooling data from numerous studies can greatly increase the statistical rigor of comparative analyses. The GeneLab houses datasets from 73 spaceflight studies that performed transcription profiling assays. These data encompass a diverse array of organisms ranging from Escherichia coli to Mus musculus to Homo sapiens and comprise studies analyzing ionizing radiation, mammalian pregnancy, etc. Collectively, the GeneLab database contains a large quantity of transcription assays and RNA sequence data analyzing Differential Gene Expression (DGE) between microand normogravity. Xspecies, a cross-species analysis method for DGE developed by Kristiansson, et al. in 2012, identifies homologous genes between species that are universally up- or downregulated in response to test conditions. Previous work by an intern at GeneLab applied Xspecies to 19 datasets containing seven different species and identified 14 homologous groups differentially expressed under spaceflight conditions including several heat shock proteins and cytoskeletal components. Unfortunately, these results may be biased by the disproportionate number of studies on Arabidopsis thaliana (5) and Mus musculus (6) and the results are not normalized by evolutionary distances. Here, we present modifications to the Xspecies algorithm that permits incorporation of multi-omic data and normalizes data for effect size, directionality, and evolutionary distances. We then apply this algorithm to all currently available GeneLab studies

Xspecies↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
DOE OSTI2016

ARE THERE TWO DISTINCT SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE RELEASES IN THE 2012 MAY 17 GROUND LEVEL ENHANCEMENT EVENT?

We examine ion release times in the solar vicinity for the 2012 May 17 Ground Level Enhancement event using the velocity dispersion analysis method. In situ energetic proton data from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite are used. We find two distinct releases of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) near the Sun, separated by ∼40 minutes. From soft X-ray observations, we find that the first release coincides with the solar flare eruption: the release starts from the flare onset and ends near the peak of the soft X-ray; type-III radio bursts also occur when the release starts. A type II radio burst may also start at the begining of the release. However, the associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) only has a height of 0.08R{sub s} from extrapolation of SOHO/LASCO data. At the start of the second release, the CME propagates to more than 8.4R{sub s} in height, and there are signatures of an enhanced type II radio burst. The time-integrated spectra for the two releases differ. The spectrum for the second release shows the common double-power-law feature of gradual SEP events. The spectrum for the first release does not resemble power laws because there is considerable modulation at lower energies. Based on our analysis, we suggest that SEPs of the first release were dominated by particles accelerated at the flare, and those of the second release were dominated by particles accelerated at the associated CME-driven shock. Our study may be important to understand certain extreme SEP events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗