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DOE OSTI2018

Air Pollutant Emissions and Regulatory Implications of a Biorefinery Co-Processing Bio-Oil in a Petroleum Refinery: Preprint

Pyrolysis oil, often referred to as bio-oil when derived from biomass through a fast pyrolysis process, has attracted considerable attention because of the high carbonaceous matter and high heating value compared to the original biomass. Pyrolysis oil provides a viable link between the agriculture/forestry and (petro-) chemical industry. Utilizing existing fossil fuel infrastructure by introducing bio-oil in petroleum refineries to produce renewable hydrocarbon fuels (i.e., repurposing existing assets) is appealing due to its relatively low capital requirement. Our analysis examined the air pollutant emissions for a biorefinery utilizing an ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis process to produce raw bio-oil, with a design capacity of 2,000 dry metric tons of biomass per day. Such a biorefinery is capable of providing sufficient bio-oil to a 4,200 barrels per day capacity of fluidized catalytic cracking unit if the bio-oil is co-processed at 5% (by volume) feed rate. This research is focused on understanding the potential air pollutant regulatory and permitting implications for a refinery co-processing 5% bio-oil with 95% vacuum gas oil in a fluidized catalytic cracking unit for two scenarios: the first case assumes that an ex situ biorefinery is collocated with a petroleum refinery, and the second one assumes that a petroleum refinery will receive bio-oil from a stand-alone biorefinery. We estimated the potential-to-emit values for 4 biorefinery and FCC sizes and assessed technically feasible emission control options that could help to avoid being subject to prevention of significant deterioration requirements due to petroleum refinery modifications to co-process bio-oil. This research fills gaps and overcomes barriers related to air permitting requirements for co-processing bio-oil in existing refineries for various stakeholders. The insights gained from this analysis can facilitate decision making and help expedite permitting processes for petroleum refineries, which seek opportunities to produce lower carbon fuels in their existing infrastructure.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Air Pollutant Emissions and Regulatory Implications of a Biorefinery Co-Processing Bio-Oil in a Petroleum Refinery

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Providing Levelized Cost and Waiting Time Inputs for HDV Hydrogen Refueling Station Planning: A Case Study of U.S. I-75 Corridor

Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.

Liu, Yuandong↗

DOE OSTI2018

EISA (Energy Independence and Security Act) compliant ethanol fuel from corn stover in a depot-based decentralized system

Cellulosic biofuels face significant problems of feedstock aggregation and logistics leading to poor economies of scale. The current model is based on relatively small biorefineries using locally-gathered feedstocks. Here, we examine the potential capacity of a hypothetically distributed, depot-based, biorefinery system to produce cellulosic ethanol from corn stover in the United States Midwest. The local depots serve to aggregate, pretreat and densify biomass (via pellets), which are collected, transported, and fed to a few very large, cellulosic ethanol biorefineries. We found that a corn stover-based depot system would help establish one or two very large-scale biorefineries capable of processing about 8-12% of total corn stover available in the United States Midwest. About 55-153 depots could supply the pretreated pellets to each distributed biorefinery leading to an annual production of 1.02 - 2.91 billion liters of cellulosic ethanol. Most of the participating depots would be located in Illinois and Iowa. The ethanol selling price in this depot-based biorefinery system would varys between U$S 0.67 and U$S 0.72 liter-1. The estimated range of GHG savings from cellulosic ethanol in the depot system compared to gasoline was 3.35-4.84 Tg CO2 year-1. In addition of being economically competitive, a distributed, depot-based, biorefinery system could meet the 60% GHG reduction requirement of the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA).

Biorefinery, Cellulosic biofuel, Corn stover, Dist↗

DOE OSTI2014

Physicochemical signatures of nanoparticle-dependent complement activation

Nanoparticles are potentially powerful therapeutic tools that have the capacity to target drug payloads and imaging agents. However, some nanoparticles can activate complement, a branch of the innate immune system, and cause adverse side-effects. Recently, we developed an in vitro hemolytic assay protocol for measuring the nanoparticle-dependent complement activity of serum samples and applied this protocol to several nanoparticle formulations that differed in size, surface charge, and surface chemistry; quantifying the nanoparticle-dependent complement activity using a metric called Residual Hemolytic Activity (RHA). In the present work, we have used a decision tree learning algorithm to derive the rules for estimating nanoparticle-dependent complement response based on the data generated from the hemolytic assay studies. Our results indicate that physicochemical properties of nanoparticles, namely, size, polydispersity index, zeta potential, and mole percentage of the active surface ligand of a nanoparticle, can serve as good descriptors for prediction of nanoparticle-dependent complement activation in the decision tree modeling framework. The robustness and predictability of the model can be improved by training the model with additional data points that are uniformly distributed in the RHA/physicochemical descriptor space and by incorporating instability effects on nanoparticle physicochemical properties into the model.

informatics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rubisco regulation in response to altered carbon status in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942

Abstract Photosynthetic organisms possess a variety of mechanisms to achieve balance between absorbed light (source) and the capacity to metabolically utilize or dissipate this energy (sink). While regulatory processes that detect changes in metabolic status/balance are relatively well studied in plants, analogous pathways remain poorly characterized in photosynthetic microbes. Here, we explored systemic changes that result from alterations in carbon availability in the model cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 by taking advantage of an engineered strain where influx/efflux of a central carbon metabolite, sucrose, can be regulated experimentally. We observed that induction of a high-flux sucrose export pathway leads to depletion of internal carbon storage pools (glycogen) and concurrent increases in estimates of photosynthetic activity. Further, a proteome-wide analysis and fluorescence reporter-based analysis revealed that upregulated factors following the activation of the metabolic sink are concentrated on ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase (Rubisco) and auxiliary modules involved in Rubisco maturation. Carboxysome number and Rubisco activity also increased following engagement of sucrose secretion. Conversely, reversing the flux of sucrose by feeding exogenous sucrose through the heterologous transporter resulted in increased glycogen pools, decreased Rubisco abundance, and carboxysome reorganization. Our data suggest that Rubisco activity and organization are key variables connected to regulatory pathways involved in metabolic balancing in cyanobacteria.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2017

Analyzing The Impacts of the Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentives on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model

This analysis represents the biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as a point of purchase incentive and tests the impact of this incentive on EV deployment using a vehicle consumer choice model. The credit value generated under this policy was calculated in a number of scenarios based on electricity use of each power train choice on a yearly basis over the 15 year vehicle lifetime, accounting for the average electric vehicle miles travelled and vehicle efficiency, competition for biogas-derived electricity among electric vehicles (EVs), the RIN equivalence value and the time value of money. The credit value calculation in each of these scenarios is offered upfront as a point of purchase incentive for EVs using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) vehicle choice model, which tracks sales, fleet size and energy use over time. The majority of the scenarios use a proposed RIN equivalence value, which increases the credit value as a way to explore the analysis space. Additional model runs show the relative impact of the equivalence value on EV deployment. The MA3T model output shows that a consumer incentive accelerates the deployment of EVs for all scenarios relative to the baseline (no policy) case. In the scenario modeled to represent the current biogas-to-electricity generation capacity (15 TWh/year) with a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, the policy leads to an additional 1.4 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and 3.5 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025 beyond the no-policy case of 1.3 million PHEVs and 2.1 million BEVs when the full value of the credit is passed on to the consumer. In 2030, this increases to 2.4 million PHEVs and 7.3 million BEVs beyond the baseline. This larger impact on BEVs relative to PHEVs is due in part to the larger credit that BEVs receive in the model based on the greater percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled by BEVs relative to PHEVs. In this scenario 2025 also represents the last year in which biogas-derived electricity is able to fully supply the transportation electricity demand in the model. After 2025, the credit value declines on a per vehicle basis. At the same time a larger fraction of the credit may shift towards biogas producers in order to incent additional biogas production. The expanded 41 TWh/year biogas availability scenarios represent an increase beyond today s generation capacity and allow greater eRIN generation. With a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, when all of the credit is directed towards reducing vehicle purchase prices, the 41 TWh/year biogas scenario results in 4.1 million additional PHEVs and 12.2 million additional BEVs on the road in 2030 beyond the baseline of 2.5 million PHEVs and 6.1 million BEVs. Under this expanded biogas capacity, biogas-derived electricity generation is able to fully supply electricity for a fleet of over 21 million EVs (15.6 million BEVs and 5.8 million PHEVs) on a yearly basis. In addition to assessing the full value credit scenarios described above, multiple scenarios were analyzed to determine the impact if only a fraction of the credit value was passed on to the consumer. In all of these cases, the EV deployment was scaled back as the fraction of the credit that was passed on to the consumer was reduced. These scenarios can be used to estimate the impact if the credit value is reduced in other ways as well, as demonstrated by the scenarios where the current (22.6 kWh/RIN) equivalence value was used. The EV deployment that results from an equivalence value of 22.6 kWh/RIN equivalence value is roughly equivalent to the EV deployment observed in the 25% case using the 5.24 kWh/RIN equivalence value. A higher equivalence value means that a smaller number of credits, and therefore value, is created for each kWh, and therefore the impact on EV deployment is reduced. This analysis shows several of the drivers that will impact eRIN generation and credit value, and tests the impact of an eRIN point of purchase incentive on EV deployment. This additional incentive can accelerate the deployment of EVs when it is used to reduce vehicle purchase prices. However, the ultimate impact of this policy, as modeled here, will be determined by future RIN prices, the extent to which eRIN credit value can be passed on to the consumer as a point of purchase incentive and the equivalence value.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Direct Manufacturing Cost Model for Solid‐Oxide Fuel Cell Stacks

Abstract This work details efforts to estimate the direct manufacturing cost of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack components for combined heat and power applications. The main research goals are to identify the major contributors to fuel cell stack manufacturing costs, examine the influence of both production volume and stack size on cost, and compare the results of the cost trajectories with the U.S. Department of Energy SOFC stack manufacturing cost target of $238 kWe −1 (in 2015) and industry reported cost projections and to identify critical areas for manufacturing research and development. Stack component direct manufacturing costs are modeled for net electricity capacity of 1, 10, 50, 100 and 250 kWe across annual production volumes of 10, 1,000, 10,000 and 50,000 systems per year. Overall stack manufacturing costs range from $5,387 kWe −1 to a minimum of about $166 kWe −1 for a 250 kWe system at 50,000 systems per year. To meet the manufacturing cost target of $238 kWe −1 , a minimum annual production of 100–250 MWe per year would be required. Reduction opportunities for stack cost are expected to be available, mainly with the adoption of thinner cells and stack components, higher levels of factory automation, and more sensitive in‐line defect diagnostics.

Scataglini, R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Metallized Propellants for the Human Exploration of Mars

Advanced chemical propulsion using Metallized Propellants (MP) can lead to significant reductions in launch mass for piloted Mars missions. MP allow the propellant density or the specific impulse I(sub sp) of the propulsion system, or both, to increase. It can reduce the propellant mass and the propulsion system dry mass. Detailed mass-scaling equations and estimates of the I(sub sp) for several MP combinations are presented. The most significant savings with MP are derived from increasing the payload delivered to Mars. For the mass in low Earth orbit (LEO), a metallized Mars transfer vehicle can deliver 20 to 22 percent additional payload. This 20-percent payload increase reduces the total number of Mars flights and therefore significantly reduces the number of Space Transportation System-Cargo launches for the entire Mars architecture. Using MP to reduce the mass in LEO per flight is not as effective as increasing the payload delivery capacity. The mass saving per flight, while delivering the same payload with a higher I(sub sp) system, is much smaller. Using MP in all of the Mars propulsion systems would produce a modest 3.3 percent LEO mass saving. This translates into a saving of 38,000 kg over the mass required with O2/H2 propulsion. A Mars excursion vehicle using Earth- or space-storable propellants for the ascent can be an alternative to storing cryogenic H2 on Mars. A space-storable system using oxygen/monomethyl hydrazine/aluminum (O2/MMH/Al) would deliver the lowest mass penalty over O2/H2. For lower-energy expedition missions the LEO mass penalty for using metallized O2/MMH/Al would be only 3 to 5 percent.

Palaszewski, Bryan A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Computer program for calculating and fitting thermodynamic functions

A computer program is described which (1) calculates thermodynamic functions (heat capacity, enthalpy, entropy, and free energy) for several optional forms of the partition function, (2) fits these functions to empirical equations by means of a least-squares fit, and (3) calculates, as a function of temperture, heats of formation and equilibrium constants. The program provides several methods for calculating ideal gas properties. For monatomic gases, three methods are given which differ in the technique used for truncating the partition function. For diatomic and polyatomic molecules, five methods are given which differ in the corrections to the rigid-rotator harmonic-oscillator approximation. A method for estimating thermodynamic functions for some species is also given.

Mcbride, Bonnie J.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Utility Sector Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand

This report presents a new approach to estimating the marginal utility sector impacts associated with electricity demand reductions. The method uses publicly available data and provides results in the form of time series of impact factors. The input data are taken from the Energy Information Agency's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections of how the electric system might evolve in the reference case, and in a number of side cases that incorporate different effciency and other policy assumptions. The data published with the AEO are used to define quantitative relationships between demand-side electricity reductions by end use and supply-side changes to capacity by plant type, generation by fuel type and emissions of CO2, Hg, NOx and SO2. The impact factors define the change in each of these quantities per unit reduction in site electricity demand. We find that the relative variation in these impacts by end use is small, but the time variation can be significant.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost.This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 percent to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within +/- 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

Changes in Global Tropospheric OH Expected as a Result of Climate Change Over the Last Several Decades

The oxidizing capacity of the troposphere is controlled primarily by the abundance of hydroxyl radical (OH). The global mean concentration of OH, [OH]_GLOBAL, inferred from measurements of methyl chloroform, has remained relatively constant during the past several decades, despite rising levels of CH4 that should have led to a steady decline. Here we examine other factors that may have affected [OH]_GLOBAL, such as the changing overhead burden of stratospheric O3 using observations from OMI, TOMS and SBUV; rising tropospheric H2O using observations from AIRS and reanalysis fields from MERRA; and widening of the climatological tropics using widening rate estimates from the literature and global OH fields from the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model. Our analysis suggests these factors may have contributed a positive trend to [OH]_GLOBAL large enough to counter the decrease due to CH4.

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating public participation in Chinese EIA. An integrated Public Participation Index and its application to the case of the New Beijing Airport

In recent years, China's government authorities have devoted increasing attention to the role of public participation processes in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The capacity of these processes to influence decision-making remains widely debated. This paper aims at appraising the institutional rationale informing the implementation of public participation in China's EIA, benchmarking it against three conceptualisations: (1) Normative, based on objectives of empowerment and democratisation; (2) Substantive, where participation is pursued mainly to improve quality of decisions; (3) Instrumental, seeking participation as an instrument to legitimise decision-making processes. The appraisal is carried out by means of a new integrated index (Public Participation Index, PPI), which is applied to a case study representative of latest advancements in EIA public participation practices in China, namely the “New Beijing Airport Project”. Located 46 km south of downtown Beijing, the project was approved in 2014 and it is currently under construction. Results of the PPI application to this case study indicate that, despite progress made in recent years, the implementation of public participation in Chinese EIA still largely responds to an instrumental rationale, with limited capacity for the public to affect decisions. - Highlights: • In recent years China has strengthened EIA public participation (PP) legislation. • Despite progress, implementation of PP remains informed by an instrumental rationale. • A large gap exists between principles enunciated in regulations and implementation. • The Public Participation Index can be used to monitor China's EIA PP development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗