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Exploring Sources of Surface Bias in HRRR Using New York State Mesonet

In recent years, there has been increasing demand for applications of short-term forecasting of renewable energy potential and assessments of the likelihood of extreme weather events using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Examining the biases in the newest version of HRRR is necessary to promote further model development. Using data from one of the most comprehensive and dense monitoring networks, New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we evaluate the HRRR version 3 meteorological fields for an entire year. In this work, the land-atmosphere-cloud coupling system is evaluated as an integrated whole. We investigate the physical processes influencing the soil hydrological balance and the thermodynamic interactions, from surface fluxes up to the level of boundary layer convection from both temporal (seasonal and diurnal) and spatial perspectives. Results show that the model 2 m temperature and humidity biases are seasonally dependent, with warm and dry bias present during the warm season, and an extreme nocturnal cold bias in winter. The summer warm bias includes both a land-surface-induced bias and a cloud-induced bias. Inaccurate representation of energy partition and soil hydrological process across different land use types as well as a hydrological bias in describing spring snowmelt are identified as the main source of the land-surface-induced bias. A feedback loop linking cloud presence, flux changes, and temperature contributes to the cloud-induced bias. The positive solar radiation bias increases from clear sky to overcast sky conditions. The most significant bias occurs during overcast and thick cloud conditions associated with frontal passage and thunderstorms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling dynamically coupled fluid-duct systems with finite line elements

Structural analysis of piping systems, especially dynamic analysis, typically considers the duct structure and the contained fluid column separately. Coupling of these two systems, however, forms a new dynamic system with characteristics not necessarily described by the superposition of the two component system's characteristics. Methods for modeling the two coupled components simultaneously using finite line elements are presented. Techniques for general duct intersections, area or direction changes, long radius bends, hydraulic losses, and hydraulic impedances are discussed. An example problem and results involving time transients are presented. Additionally, a program to enhance post-processing of line element models is discussed.

Saxon, J. B.↗

An intermediate-scale model for thermal hydrology in low-relief permafrost-affected landscapes

Integrated surface/subsurface models for simulating the thermal hydrology of permafrost-affected regions in a warming climate have recently become available, but computational demands of those new process-rich simu- lation tools have thus far limited their applications to one-dimensional or small two-dimensional simulations. We present a mixed-dimensional model structure for efficiently simulating surface/subsurface thermal hydrology in low-relief permafrost regions at watershed scales. The approach replaces a full three-dimensional system with a two-dimensional overland thermal hydrology system and a family of one-dimensional vertical columns, where each column represents a fully coupled surface/subsurface thermal hydrology system without lateral flow. The system is then operator split, sequentially updating the overland flow system without sources and the one-dimensional columns without lateral flows. We show that the app- roach is highly scalable, supports subcycling of different processes, and compares well with the corresponding fully three-dimensional representation at significantly less computational cost. Those advances enable recently developed representations of freezing soil physics to be coupled with thermal overland flow and surface energy balance at scales of 100s of meters. Furthermore developed and demonstrated for permafrost thermal hydrology, the mixed-dimensional model structure is applicable to integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New reactions of diazene and related species for modelling combustion of amine fuels

Potential energy surfaces for reactions involving N 2 H 2 isomers of diazene (diimide) have been explored using density functional theory, with energies based on coupled-cluster theory. A focus is on processes that create or consume these species, and isomerisation between the E (trans) and Z (cis) forms of HNNH. Furthermore, these include isomerisation and dissociation pathways for HNNH, addition of H atoms to form N 2 H 3 , abstraction by H atoms yielding short-lived NNH, and abstraction reactions of H with N 2 H 3 . Transition state and capture theories are applied for high-pressure-limiting behaviour, while low-pressure and falloff regions are characterised via the methods of Troe and coworkers. Rate constants and thermochemistry are provided to improve models of diamine chemistry, relevant to the combustion of NH 3 especially at high concentrations, high pressures or under reducing conditions. Results indicate that amine radical recombination mainly yields the E HNNH isomer, while H-abstraction from N 2 H 3 results in E HNNH and H 2 NN. However, at elevated temperature E → Z isomerisation becomes competitive, and Z HNNH, being more reactive, acts to enhance the diazene consumption rate.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Measuring the electron Yukawa coupling via resonant s-channel Higgs production at FCC-ee

The Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) offers the unique opportunity of studying the Higgs Yukawa coupling to the electron, \(y_\mathrm {e}\) , via resonant s -channel production, \(\mathrm {e^+e^-}\rightarrow \mathrm {H}\) , in a dedicated run at \(\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}\) . The signature for direct Higgs production is a small rise in the cross sections for particular final states, consistent with Higgs decays, over the expectations for their occurrence due to Standard Model (SM) background processes involving \(\mathrm {Z}^*\) , \(\gamma ^*\) , or t -channel exchanges alone. Performing such a measurement is remarkably challenging for four main reasons. First, the low value of the e \(^\pm \) mass leads to a tiny \(y_\mathrm {e}\) coupling and correspondingly small cross section: \(\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} \propto m_\mathrm {e}^2 = 0.57\) fb accounting for initial-state \(\gamma \) radiation. Second, the \(\mathrm {e^+e^-}\) beams must be monochromatized such that the spread of their centre-of-mass (c.m.) energy is commensurate with the narrow width of the SM Higgs boson, \(\varGamma _\mathrm {H} = 4.1\) MeV, while keeping large beam luminosities. Third, the Higgs mass must also be known beforehand with a few-MeV accuracy in order to operate the collider at the resonance peak, \(\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}\) . Last but not least, the cross sections of the background processes are many orders-of-magnitude larger than those of the Higgs decay signals. A preliminary generator-level study of 11 Higgs decay channels using a multivariate analysis, which exploits boosted decision trees to discriminate signal and background events, identifies two final states as the most promising ones in terms of statistical significance: \(\mathrm {H}\rightarrow gg\) and \(\mathrm {H}\rightarrow \mathrm {W}\mathrm {W}^*\!\rightarrow \ell \nu \) + 2 jets. For a benchmark monochromatization with 4.1-MeV c.m. energy spread (leading to \(\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} = 0.28\) fb) and 10 ab \(^{-1}\) of integrated luminosity, a \(1.3\sigma \) signal significance can be reached, corresponding to an upper limit on the e \(^\pm \) Yukawa coupling at 1.6 times the SM value: |y e | < 1.6|y e SM | at 95% confidence level, per FCC-ee interaction point per year. Directions for future improvements of the study are outlined.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

ORNL Design Engineering Library: Validated Thermoelectric Digital Twins

Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) serve a crucial role in supplying thermal and electrical energy for reliable and long-duration power in remote and extreme environments. The thermal energy is provided by the decay of radioisotopes and is converted into electrical energy using the steady-state thermoelectric process by exploiting the Seebeck effect. Maintaining a thermal gradient through the material is necessary to drive current production. Modern predictive multi-physics tools are able to effectively describe the complex and strongly coupled phenomena needed for accurate model-based system engineering efforts needed to develop higher performing RTGs. Experimental validation of model simulations is essential to confirm the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of predictive multiphysics tools. Validation fosters confidence among users, helps meet regulatory requirements, and contributes to the ongoing improvement of simulation techniques, ultimately leading to better, safer, and more efficient designs and processes. Validated models can then be used as digital twins and can be interrogated to understand and quantify the performance gaps between theoretical and physical systems. These insights can be used to build higher performing systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Efficient Flowline Simulations of Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions: Sensitivity Studies with a Fully Coupled Model

Thermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf-ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice-ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice-ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances.

polar oceanography↗

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗

Receptivity in parallel flows: An adjoint approach

Linear receptivity studies in parallel flows are aimed at understanding how external forcing couples to the natural unstable motions which a flow can support. The vibrating ribbon problem models the original Schubauer and Skramstad boundary layer experiment and represents the classic boundary layer receptivity problem. The process by which disturbances are initiated in convectively-unstable jets and shear layers has also received attention. Gaster was the first to handle the boundary layer analysis with the recognition that spatial modes, rather than temporal modes, were relevant when studying convectively-unstable flows that are driven by a time-harmonic source. The amplitude of the least stable spatial mode, far downstream of the source, is related to the source strength by a coupling coefficient. The determination of this coefficient is at the heart of this type of linear receptivity study. The first objective of the present study was to determine whether the various wave number derivative factors, appearing in the coupling coefficients for linear receptivity problems, could be reexpressed in a simpler form involving adjoint eigensolutions. Secondly, it was hoped that the general nature of this simplification could be shown; indeed, a rather elegant characterization of the receptivity properties of spatial instabilities does emerge. The analysis is quite distinct from the usual Fourier-inversion procedures, although a detailed knowledge of the spectrum of the Orr-Sommerfeld equation is still required. Since the cylinder wake analysis proved very useful in addressing control considerations, the final objective was to provide a foundation upon which boundary layer control theory may be developed.

Hill, D. Christopher↗

Analysis of Unpolarised p+p¿ Photoproduction with the GlueX Experiment

This thesis presents measurements of spin-density matrix elements in unpolarised p+p? photoproduction on a proton target. The dominant resonance contribution to the dipion system is the r(770) meson. Due to the large production cross section for this resonance, a valid comparison can be made between the obtained final results and r(770) spin-density matrix elements measured previously with other experiments. The measurement was performed over the 3:0 ? 11:6 GeV beam energy regime, which is a more extensive energy range than has ever been studied previously for the r(770). Results were obtained by analysing data from the GlueX experiment based at Jefferson Lab. Extended maximum likelihood fits were applied to extract three spin-density matrix elements using Markov chain Monte Carlo based parameter estimations. This was performed using various binning configurations to probe the energy, mass, and four-momentum transfer dependence of the determined physics observables. Spin-density matrix elements are shown to be consistent with the model of s-channel helicity conservation at low ?t. The effects of pomeron and f2 exchanges are clearly visible in the energy dependence of the measured observables. These observations provide valuable insights into the relative strengths of both processes as a function of the photon energy, and may enable theorists to disentangle the f2=P coupling ratio. Spin-density matrix elements are seen to be highly dependent on the reconstructed resonance mass. This observation is likely to be a result of non-resonant S-wave background processes, and emphasises the need for a more detailed model of the p+p? angular distribution that considers all of the competing angular momentum components that contribute to the measured final state. The statistical precision of measurements performed for this thesis surpass what was achievable in previous studies of the r(770) by several orders of magnitude. Studies of the energy and four-momentum transfer dependence, and insights into the effects of non r(770) background contributions provide valuable input for production models. This will help inform the choice of wave-sets used for partial wave analyses, supporting GlueX in its search for exotic hybrid meson states.

Fitches, James↗

Diffusion Processes Satisfying a Conservation Law Constraint

We investigate coupled stochastic differential equations governing N non-negative continuous random variables that satisfy a conservation principle. In various fields a conservation law requires that a set of fluctuating variables be non-negative and (if appropriately normalized) sum to one. As a result, any stochastic differential equation model to be realizable must not produce events outside of the allowed sample space. We develop a set of constraints on the drift and diffusion terms of such stochastic models to ensure that both the non-negativity and the unit-sum conservation law constraint are satisfied as the variables evolve in time. We investigate the consequences of the developed constraints on the Fokker-Planck equation, the associated system of stochastic differential equations, and the evolution equations of the first four moments of the probability density function. We show that random variables, satisfying a conservation law constraint, represented by stochastic diffusion processes, must have diffusion terms that are coupled and nonlinear. The set of constraints developed enables the development of statistical representations of fluctuating variables satisfying a conservation law. We exemplify the results with the bivariate beta process and the multivariate Wright-Fisher, Dirichlet, and Lochner’s generalized Dirichlet processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

El Niño-like response↗

Isolating the effect of biomass burning aerosol emissions on 20th century hydroclimate in South America and Southeast Asia

Abstract Biomass burning is a significant source of aerosol emissions in some regions and has a considerable impact on regional climate. Earth system model simulations indicate that increased biomass burning aerosol emissions contributed to statistically significant decreases in tropical precipitation over the 20th century. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LENS) experiment to evaluate the mechanisms by which biomass burning aerosol contributed to decreased tropical precipitation, with a focus on South America and Southeast Asia. We analyze the all-but-one forcing simulations in which biomass burning aerosol emissions are held constant while other forcings (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) vary throughout the 20th century. This allows us to isolate the influence of biomass burning aerosol on processes that contribute to decreasing precipitation, including cloud microphysics, the radiative effects of absorbing aerosol particles, and alterations in regional circulation. We also show that the 20th century reduction in precipitation identified in the CESM1-LENS historical and biomass burning experiments is consistent across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with interactive aerosol schemes and the CESM2 single-forcing experiment. Our results demonstrate that higher concentrations of biomass burning aerosol increases the quantity of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets, limiting cloud droplet size and precipitation formation. Additionally, absorbing aerosols (e.g., black carbon) contribute to a warmer cloud layer, which promotes cloud evaporation, increases atmospheric stability, and alters regional circulation patterns. Corresponding convectively coupled circulation responses, particularly over the tropical Andes, contribute to further reducing the flow of moisture and moisture convergence over tropical land. These results elucidate the processes that affect the water cycle in regions prone to biomass burning and inform our understanding of how future changes in aerosol emissions may impact tropical precipitation over the 21st century.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

An assessment of coupling algorithms for nuclear reactor core physics simulations

This paper evaluates the performance of multiphysics coupling algorithms applied to a light water nuclear reactor core simulation. The simulation couples the k-eigenvalue form of the neutron transport equation with heat conduction and subchannel flow equations. We compare Picard iteration (block Gauss–Seidel) to Anderson acceleration and multiple variants of preconditioned Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov (JFNK). The performance of the methods are evaluated over a range of energy group structures and core power levels. A novel physics-based approximation to a Jacobian-vector product has been developed to mitigate the impact of expensive on-line cross section processing steps. Numerical simulations demonstrating the efficiency of JFNK and Anderson acceleration relative to standard Picard iteration are performed on a 3D model of a nuclear fuel assembly. Both criticality (k-eigenvalue) and critical boron search problems are considered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Incorporating Handling Qualities Analysis into Rotorcraft Conceptual Design

This paper describes the initial development of a framework to incorporate handling qualities analyses into a rotorcraft conceptual design process. In particular, the paper describes how rotorcraft conceptual design level data can be used to generate flight dynamics models for handling qualities analyses. Also, methods are described that couple a basic stability augmentation system to the rotorcraft flight dynamics model to extend analysis to beyond that of the bare airframe. A methodology for calculating the handling qualities characteristics of the flight dynamics models and for comparing the results to ADS-33E criteria is described. Preliminary results from the application of the handling qualities analysis for variations in key rotorcraft design parameters of main rotor radius, blade chord, hub stiffness and flap moment of inertia are shown. Varying relationships, with counteracting trends for different handling qualities criteria and different flight speeds are exhibited, with the action of the control system playing a complex part in the outcomes. Overall, the paper demonstrates how a broad array of technical issues across flight dynamics stability and control, simulation and modeling, control law design and handling qualities testing and evaluation had to be confronted to implement even a moderately comprehensive handling qualities analysis of relatively low fidelity models. A key outstanding issue is to how to 'close the loop' with an overall design process, and options for the exploration of how to feedback handling qualities results to a conceptual design process are proposed for future work.

Analysis into Rotorcraft↗

Time-resolved soft x-ray spectra from laser-produced Cu plasma

The volumetric heating of a thin copper target has been studied with time resolved x-ray spectroscopy. The copper target was heated by a plasma produced using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Compact Multipulse Terawatt (COMET) laser. A variable spaced grating spectrometer coupled to an x-ray streak camera measured soft x-ray emission (800-1550 eV) from the back of the copper target to characterize the bulk heating of the target. Radiation hydrodynamic simulations were modeled in two-dimensions using the HYDRA code. The target conditions calculated by HYDRA were post-processed with the atomic kinetics code CRETIN to generate synthetic emission spectra. A comparison between the experimental and simulated spectra indicates the presence of specific ionization states of copper and the corresponding electron temperatures and ion densities throughout the laser-heated copper target.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Characterizing Reactive Transport Behavior in a Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Network

While several studies have linked network and in-fracture scale properties to conservative transport behavior in subsurface fractured media, studies on reactive transport cases remain relatively underdeveloped. In this study, we explore the behavior of an irreversible kinetic reaction during the interaction of two solute plumes, one consisting of species A and the other species B. When the plumes converge, these species react kinetically to form a new species C via A+B→kC. This reactive system is studied using a three-dimensional discrete fracture network (DFN) model coupled with reactive Lagrangian particle tracking. We find that the interplay of network topology and chemical properties of the reactive solutes controls reactive transport processes. The network topology drives species A and B together, and the chemical properties dictate whether and how quickly a reaction occurs. Results demonstrate that reactions are most likely to occur in high-velocity fractures that make up the network backbone. The interplay between species’ chemical properties and transport is characterized by a non-dimensional Damköhler (Da) number. We show that the spatial distribution of reactions is sensitive to Da, which subsequently influences late-time tailing behavior in outlet breakthrough time distributions. The results of this study provide initial insights into how an irreversible reaction occurs during transport in a fracture network, using a methodology that can be applied to study reactive transport in a wide range of fractured media environments and contexts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗