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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution on Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Report

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) PISCEES is a SciDAC Earth System Modeling project with the following goals: To develop and apply robust, accurate, and scalable dynamical cores for ice sheet modeling on structured and unstructured meshes with adaptive refinements To evaluate ice sheet models using new tools and data sets for verification and validation (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) To integrate these models and tools into DOE's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) using improved estimates of ice sheet initial conditions, we will simulate decade-to-century-scale evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, running PISCEES ice sheet models both in standalone mode and coupled to ACME. We aim to provide useful, credible predictions, including uncertainty ranges, of future ice-sheet mass loss and resulting changes in climate and sea level. PISCEES is jointly funded by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) of the DOE Office of Science. Participating institutions: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Florida State University (FSU) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) University of South Carolina (USC) University of Texas at Austin (UT) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (https://www.scidac.gov/PISCEES/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Insights into the Sulfur Mineralogy of Martian Soil at Rocknest, Gale Crater, Enabled by Evolved Gas Analyses

The first solid samples analysed by the Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instrument and Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) consisted of < 150 m fines sieved from aeolian bedform material at a site named Rocknest. All four samples of this material analyzed by SAM s evolved gas analysis mass spectrometry (EGA-MS) released H2O, CO2, O2, and SO2 (Fig. 1), as well as H2S and possibly NO. This is the first time evolved SO2 (and evolved H2S) has been detected from thermal analysis of martian materials. The identity of these evolved gases and temperature (T) of evolution can support mineral detection by CheMin and place constraints on trace volatile-bearing phases present below the CheMin detection limit or difficult to characterize with XRD (e.g., X-ray amorphous phases). Constraints on phases responsible for evolved CO2 and O2 are detailed elsewhere [1,2,3]. Here, we focus on potential constraints on phases that evolved SO2, H2S, and H2O during thermal analysis.

McAdam, A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Lunar Geophysical Network Mission

Overarching Principles: Must be better than Apollo (coverage, duration, instrument performance); Learn from the Apollo experience. Lunar Geophysical Network (LGN) New Frontiers (NF)-class mission, as part of the NF-5 call. “This mission consists of several identical landers distributed across the lunar surface, each carrying geophysical instrumentation. The primary science objectives are to characterize the Moon’s internal structure, seismic activity, global heat flow budget, bulk composition, & magnetic field.” Global distribution of multiple stations. Each station should contain a seismometer, heat flow probe, electromagnetic sounder, laser retroreflector (lunar nearside). Each station must be long-lived (e.g., approximately10 years)to allow other stations (from other countries?) to be integrated with the anchor nodes to form the International Lunar Network. Why LGN? Planetary Science: Moon represents an end-member in planetary evolution (large small body, small rocky planet); Primary planetary differentiation preserved; Key to understanding terrestrial planet initial differentiation. Lunar Science: Heat flow probes yield crustal heat budget estimates; Combined with EMS (ElectroMagnetic Sounding), the temperature profile of the deep interior can be modeled along with mineralogy; Seismic and LLR (Lunar Laser Ranging) data also yield structure and compositional information of the lunar interior; High fidelity data from LGN would enhance the usefulness of the GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) and SELENE (Selenological and Engineering Explorer) gravity data. Human Exploration: LGN must be established prior to renewed human lunar activity - we do not know the exact locations or causes of the shallow moonquakes (SMQs) - the largest magnitude seismic events recorded by Apollo (1 event per year of magnitude greater than or equal to 5); Establishing surface infrastructure near SMQ epicenters must be avoided.

Neal, C. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mineralogical, Elemental, and Tomographic Reconnaissance Investigation for CLPS (METRIC): A Payload Designed for Exploration of Terrestrial Planetary Bodies

Geological materials (indeed, all solid objects) are characterized by their crystal structure, elemental composition, and morphology. The Mineralogical, Elemental, and Tomographic Reconnaissance Investigation for CLPS (METRIC) instrument suite quantifies all three. These measurements address fundamental science questions (e.g., the origin and evolution of planetary bodies) and support the human exploration of space (e.g., the characterization of regolith for ISRU and the constraint of its geotechnical properties). METRIC comprises an X-ray Diffraction/X-ray Fluorescence instrument (XRD: mineral structure and XRF: elemental composition), an X-ray micro-Computed Tomography instrument (XCT: 3D internal micromorphology), and a hyperspectral imaging infrared spectrometer (IRS) to provide local/regional mineralogic context for these measurements. METRIC XRD/F draws heritage from the highly successful Mars Science Laboratory CheMin instrument. The METRIC XRD/F employs two separate sample cells, one optimized for XRD and one for XRF, resulting in more rapid XRD analysis (tens of minutes vs. tens of hours for CheMin) and an orders-of-magnitude improvement in XRF detection. XCT has not been deployed in space, so the METRIC XCT represents a new capability for solar system exploration. The XCT uses the same basic high-TRL components as METRIC XRD/F, decreasing its development cost for flight. The METRIC IRS is a derivative of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office funded Hyperspectral Thermal Imager instrument and utilizes the NASA Technology Transfer Program to incorporate a commercial-of-the-shelf infrared camera ruggedized for space by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The IRS spectral range (8–14 µm) and resolution (10.8 cm -1 ) are tailored to quantify mineralogy in rocks using their characteristic Reststrahlen bands and to characterize mineralogy of soils using the position of the Christensen Feature. The METRIC payload is currently designed for deployment to the Moon on a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) mission, where the XRD/F and XCT would be located on a lander and the IRS would be on deployed on a companion rover to evaluate the mineralogical diversity of the landing site. A pneumatic drill designed by Honeybee Robotics would excavate regolith up to 50 cm below the lander and deliver multiple aliquots of regolith to the XRD/F and XCT. The METRIC payload could also be deployed on a rover. In this case, a sample handling system on a robotic arm could scoop regolith and/or drill rocks and deliver powder to the XRD/F and XCT located in the rover’s interior. Alternatively, METRIC instruments could be used singly or in combination on human space missions. The XRD/F and XCT could be used to characterize samples in a rover or in a science laboratory within a habitat. These data could help astronauts identify resource-enriched rocks and regolith and triage geologic samples to return samples of high interest for analysis in terrestrial laboratories. The IRS could be attached to a human-navigated rover to collect mineralogical data along a traverse and identify high-priority science samples.

E. B. Rampe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Directed energy deposition of radially functionally graded nickel based superalloys IN625 and IN738: Microstructure and mechanical properties

This study investigates the microstructure and mechanical properties of radially functionally graded (RFG) materials fabricated from nickel-based superalloys IN625 and IN738 using directed energy deposition (DED). RFG cylindrical deposits with radial gradients of IN625-IN738 and IN738-IN625 were successfully fabricated and confirmed to be crack-free through tailored composition grading, scan strategy and process parameters that minimized thermal gradients and solidification velocities. Microstructural analysis revealed distinct variations across the gradient, characterized by differences in dendrite arm spacing, microsegregation, and the formation of distinct γ' precipitates and carbide/boride phases (MC, M 6 C, M 2 C, and MB 2 ) in as-deposited (AD) conditions, which evolved into M 23 C 6 and M 2 B upon subsequent heat treatment (HT). EBSD showed predominant columnar grains with a [100] texture, while microhardness profiles demonstrated consistent variation across the gradients. Mechanical testing highlighted the synergy of the graded structure, combining IN738's strength with IN625's ductility, resulting in enhanced properties such as a yield strength of 1131 MPa, ultimate tensile strength of 1382 MPa, and elongation of 12 % for HT IN625-IN738 grading. Numerical simulations employing CALPHAD thermodynamic calculations and finite element thermal modeling are used to establish phase evolution and microstructural feature correlation with thermal profiles, aiding in the optimization of process-structure-property relationship.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Room temperature sodium diffusion in sodium iron phosphate investigated with neutron scattering

Sodium iron phosphate, Na x FePO 4 , is currently one of the most promising cathode materials for sodium ion batteries. Here we employ a systematic approach using three neutron scattering techniques to investigate temperature dependent properties with a focus on the charge transfer processes. Two distinct Na + diffusive motions are observed with quasielastic neutron scattering, including room temperature motion. These processes correspond to rapid double jumps through extrinsic vacancy sites of ∼6 Å along with the more fundamental nearest neighbor jumps of 3.1 Å. Experimental observations of room temperature ionic diffusion are highly desirable, as the diffusion pathways are naturally well suited for efficient transport. Inelastic neutron scattering was used to probe the vibrational density of states that assist in the ionic and electronic (polaronic) transport processes, which are further supported with density functional theory. Neutron diffraction examines the disordering of the sodium sublattice upon transition to the solid-solution phase, which is believed to enhance the overall kinetics during sodium insertion/extraction. Finally, 57 Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy measurements probes polaron hopping and the local structural evolution that modifies the electron density surrounding the redox active iron sites. This study sheds light on the temperature induced atomic scale dynamics that occur in olivine Na x FePO 4 .

Novak, Eric [Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA (U↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the Coupled System

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates across its coupled components to enhance capability and improve fidelity. The atmosphere component incorporates advancements in chemistry, aerosol-cloud interactions, convection, and microphysics. The ocean features a new time-stepping scheme and a higher-resolution unstructured mesh with sub-ice-shelf cavities, while the sea ice model integrates advanced snow and ice physics for more realistic cryospheric simulations. The land model introduces prognostic vegetation dynamics and a new sub-grid topographic treatment of solar radiation. A new tri-grid configuration harmonizes the horizontal grids of the land and river components for improved process coupling. It is enabled by a new non-linear remapping between the atmosphere and land. E3SMv3 underwent extensive testing through a comprehensive simulation campaign, including pre-industrial control, idealized CO 2 experiments, and historical simulations spanning 1850–2024. The model demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the evolution of the historical surface temperature, particularly addressing the “pothole cooling” bias in earlier versions. Reduced aerosol-related forcing contributes to more realistic radiative forcing and better alignment with the observational record. Ocean heat content (OHC) and sea ice trends are also improved as a result.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of size-selected Pt cluster catalysts on prototypical oxide supports

The current quest for new pathways into sustainable, efficient and durable energy conversion technologies makes the used for a fundamental understanding of the atomic-scale phenomena underlying catalytic processes ever more pressing. In this context, characterizing catalyst particles in situ provides valuable information about the evolution of their composition, structure, oxidation state and charge state during an ongoing process. To disentangle the influence of individual parameters – temperature, pressure, gas composition, cluster size, as well as support acidity, redox state and defect density – it is crucial to control them precisely and separately in experiments. At the example of size-selected Pt n clusters – i.e. sub-nm particles defined to the exact number of atoms – on flat oxide supports, we follow their rich evolution phenomena via (synchrotron-based) X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) during temperature ramps and in various gas environments. Here, we present our experience with these highly defined, yet complicated-to-create samples in ultra-high vacuum (UHV) and at mbar pressures. We discuss their stability during transport to synchrotrons and under reaction conditions on three prototypical oxide supports and show the various phenomena that can be disentangled. Ptn clusters on the non-reducible silicon dioxide, SiO 2 , remain size-selected and show remarkable stability. Doping strongly influences the size-dependent binding energy shifts and changes the Pt response to oxidative and reaction conditions, which we attribute to different cluster geometries: p-type doping leads to wetting, enhanced sinter resistance and a diminished response to oxidative environments, compared to clusters on n-type doped samples. We compare the system with our previous findings of a similar change in dimensionality for Pt 20 clusters on the reducible ceria, CeO 2 (111), support, induced by modulation of its O vacancy density. The Pt n /CeO 2 system is particularly interesting for strategies to stabilize and redisperse Pt clusters dynamically. Finally, we study the evolution of Pt n clusters on another reducible oxide support, magnetite, Fe 3 O 4 (001), in 0.1 mbar alternating redox conditions at RT and elevated temperature. In analogy to findings previously reported for Pt/TiO 2 (110), the clusters either become encapsulated by a thin oxide film via strong metal–support interaction (SMSI) or deeply buried in the magnetite. Overall, our approach of following the evolution of size-selected clusters on oxide supports leads to fundamental atomic-scale insights on nano-scale catalyst materials, on our path to sustainable, dynamic and self-repairing catalysts.

Falling, Lorenz J. [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum simulation of boson-related Hamiltonians: techniques, effective Hamiltonian construction, and error analysis

Elementary quantum mechanics proposes that a closed physical system consistently evolves in a reversible manner. However, control and readout necessitate the coupling of the quantum system to the external environment, subjecting it to relaxation and decoherence. Consequently, system-environment interactions are indispensable for simulating physically significant theories. A broad spectrum of physical systems in condensed-matter and high-energy physics, vibrational spectroscopy, and circuit and cavity QED necessitates the incorporation of bosonic degrees of freedom, such as phonons, photons, and gluons, into optimized fermion algorithms for near-future quantum simulations. In particular, when a quantum system is surrounded by an external environment, its basic physics can usually be simplified to a spin or fermionic system interacting with bosonic modes. Nevertheless, troublesome factors such as the magnitude of the bosonic degrees of freedom typically complicate the direct quantum simulation of these interacting models, necessitating the consideration of a comprehensive plan. This strategy should specifically include a suitable fermion/boson-to-qubit mapping scheme to encode sufficiently large yet manageable bosonic modes, and a method for truncating and/or downfolding the Hamiltonian to the defined subspace for performing an approximate but highly accurate simulation, guided by rigorous error analysis. In this pedagogical tutorial review, we aim to provide such an exhaustive strategy, focusing on encoding and simulating certain bosonic-related model Hamiltonians, inclusive of their static properties and time evolutions. Specifically, we emphasize two aspects: (1) the discussion of recently developed quantum algorithms for these interacting models and the construction of effective Hamiltonians, and (2) a detailed analysis regarding a tightened error bound for truncating the bosonic modes for a class of fermion-boson interacting Hamiltonians.

bosonic Hamiltonian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coherent phonon pairs and rotational symmetry breaking of charge density wave order in the kagome superconductor CsV 3 Sb 5

Here, in this work we perform ultrafast time-resolved reflectivity measurements to study the symmetry breaking in the charge-density wave (CDW) phase of CsV 3 ⁢Sb 5 . By extracting the coherent phonon spectrum in the CDW phase of CsV 3 ⁢Sb 5 , we discover close phonon pairs near 1.3 THz and 3.1 THz, as well as a new mode at 1.84 THz. The 1.3 THz phonon pair and the 1.84 THz mode are observed up to the CDW transition temperature. Combining density-functional theory calculations, we show that these phonon pairs arise from the coexistence of Star of David and inverse Star of David distortions combined with sixfold rotational symmetry breaking. An anisotropy in the magnitude of transient reflectivity change is also revealed at the onset of CDW order. Our results thus indicate broken sixfold rotational symmetry in the charge-density wave state of CsV 3⁢ Sb 5 , along with the absence of nematic fluctuation above 𝑇 CDW . Meanwhile, the measured coherent phonon spectrum in the CDW phase of CsV 3 ⁢Sb 5−𝑥 ⁢Sn 𝑥 with 𝑥 = 0.03–0.04 matches the staggered inverse Star of David with interlayer 𝜋 phase shift. This CDW structure contrasts with undoped CsV3⁢Sb5 and explains the evolution from a phonon pair to a single mode at 1.3 THz by 𝑥 = 0.03–0.04 Sn doping.

Deng, Qinwen [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase Field Modeling of Chemical Reaction Related Damage Evolution in Environmental Barrier Coatings

The advent of next-generation engines necessitates materials capable of withstanding temperatures beyond the reach of current superalloys. SiC-based ceramic matrix composites, augmented with environmental barrier coatings (EBCs), present a promising materials solution. Given the active search for effective and durable EBCs, there is a pressing need for modeling tools to understand and predict damage evolution in these materials to help accelerate their development. This study introduces a phase-field model (PFM) designed to simulate the thermally grown oxides (TGO) and phase transformation in the degradation and failure of EBCs. The model accounts for the severe volume expansion due to oxidation, alongside phase transformations and porosity evolution during thermal cycling, offering a comprehensive view of the damage processes. Simulation results are validated against experimental findings reported in the literature, establishing the model's potential as a significant tool for understanding and improving the resilience of EBCs in cyclic oxidative environments.

fast-diffusion path↗
DOE OSTI2017

Galaxies Grow Their Bulges and Black Holes in Diverse Ways

Galaxies with Milky Way–like stellar masses have a wide range of bulge and black hole masses; in turn, these correlate with other properties such as star formation history. While many processes may drive bulge formation, major and minor mergers are expected to play a crucial role. Stellar halos offer a novel and robust measurement of galactic merger history; cosmologically motivated models predict that mergers with larger satellites produce more massive, higher-metallicity stellar halos, reproducing the recently observed stellar halo metallicity–mass relation. We quantify the relationship between stellar halo mass and bulge or black hole prominence using a sample of 18 Milky Way-mass galaxies with newly available measurements of (or limits on) stellar halo properties. There is an order of magnitude range in bulge mass, and two orders of magnitude in black hole mass, at a given stellar halo mass (or, equivalently, merger history). Galaxies with low-mass bulges show a wide range of quiet merger histories, implying formation mechanisms that do not require intense merging activity. Galaxies with massive “classical” bulges and central black holes also show a wide range of merger histories. While three of these galaxies have massive stellar halos consistent with a merger origin, two do not—merging appears to have had little impact on making these two massive “classical” bulges. Such galaxies may be ideal laboratories to study massive bulge formation through pathways such as early gas-rich accretion, violent disk instabilities, or misaligned infall of gas throughout cosmic time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strained-Induced Morphological Reconstruction of RuO 2 (110) Thin-Film Electrocatalysts

Strain is a widely used strategy for electrocatalyst engineering. Overstraining, however, can lead to unintentional materials transformation. We investigate the impact of strain on the surface morphology of a rutile RuO 2 (110) film grown on a symmetry-matching rutile TiO 2 (110) substrate. When the film thickness exceeds 9 nm, the RuO 2 surface relaxes by forming step edges that expose the {011} plane. Density functional theory (DFT) calculation shows that the (011) facet is among the lower energy surfaces of rutile RuO 2 , suggesting that this formation incurs minimal energetic penalties. In situ atomic force microscopy (AFM) shows that the film maintains the (110) structure of the terrace during electrochemistry. Inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) further reveals the insensitivity of the Ru dissolution to strain. Here, our findings show a strain-relieving pathway via surface reconstruction in RuO 2 (110) and provide an example of a strain-relieving mechanism that does not affect dissolution.

Evolution reactions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control Mechanisms for Self‐Sealing in Activated Clay‐Rich Faults Through Controlled Hydraulic Injection Experiment

Abstract In a high‐pressure injection fault activation experiment conducted at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland, the transmissivity of the Opalinus Clay fault significantly increased due to opening and shearing. The fluid injection, spanning a few hours, generated a 10 m radius fault activation patch. Subsequent pressure pulse tests conducted bi‐weekly for a year revealed the gradual return of fault transmissivity to its initial state. The study utilized fluid pressure decay analysis, optical fiber monitoring, continuous active source seismic measurements and borehole displacement sensors for measuring fault displacements. The fault zone exhibited a dilation of approximately 1.4 mm, associated with both normal and tangential movements during activation, resulting in a sudden transmissivity increase from 1 × 10 −12 to 3.2 × 10 −7 m 2 /s. Early post‐activation, transient compaction and the subsequent slow compaction were observed, transitioning to an extension regime. The pressure pulse tests demonstrated a rapid transmissivity drop by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 10 days, followed by a gradual and less pronounced decrease. Plastic shear and compaction dominated the transmissivity evolution until 70 days after injection ended, followed by a period where additional factors, such as clay mineral swelling, influenced the behavior. Extrapolation suggested a sealing process taking at least 50 years after the initial activation. Plain Language Summary A field‐scale fault activation experiment offers valuable insights into the elasto‐plastic processes governing the sealing of shale faults. The experiment reveals a rapid increase in the fault's transmissivity by approximately five orders of magnitude during activation. Subsequent observations show a gradual transmissivity decrease by about three orders of magnitude post‐activation, with slow long‐term plastic shear and compaction of the fault competing against secondary processes, notably clay mineral swelling. All conceptual models employed to interpret these field data converge on the estimation that the fault's return to its initial low transmissivity state would require a minimum of 50 years. Key Points High‐pressure injection fault activation experiment at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory Continuous transmissivity measurements record self‐sealing inside a clay‐rich fault zone Transmissivity undergoes a phase of domination by slow plastic compaction and shearing during the initial post‐activation period, with mineral swelling exerting its influence over the long term

Guglielmi, Yves↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of IrO 2 catalysts doped with Ti and Nb at industrially relevant electrolyzer conditions: A comprehensive study

A series of commercial Oxygen Evolution Reaction (OER) IrO 2 -based materials doped with acid-stable titanium and niobium species were comprehensively characterized by Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), and X-ray Scattering. Electrocatalysts were integrated into Membrane Electrode Assembly (MEA) using a fabrication method developed under the US DOE H2NEW consortium. An electrolysis performance in a commercial setup as well as a laboratory screening system was performed at conditions relevant to industrial application. According to the comprehensive characterizations, the studied materials are closer to doped iridium oxides rather than core–shell structures. In an electrolysis cell, the IrO 2 /TiO x catalyst slightly outperforms the IrO 2 /NbO x based on the activity. It was demonstrated that the operation of electrolysis cells at elevated temperatures and the implementation of thinner Nafion-type membranes allows for substantially increased performance, which is consistent with the literature report. Finally, this work provides valuable baselines including characterization and performance for guiding future research in this direction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults

Abstract We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture surfaces. The experiments produced complex slip patterns including fast and slow ruptures with large and small fault slips, as well as failure events on the fault surface producing acoustic emission bursts without externally‐detectable stress drop. Preparatory processes leading to large slips were tracked with an ensemble of ten seismo‐mechanical and statistical parameters characterizing local and global damage and stress evolution, localization and clustering processes, as well as event interactions. We decompose complex spatio‐temporal trends in the lab‐quake characteristics and identify persistent effects of evolving fault roughness and damage at different length scales, and local stress evolution approaching large events. The observed trends highlight labquake localization processes on different spatial and temporal scales. The preparatory process of large slip events includes smaller events marked by confined bursts of acoustic emission activity that collectively prepare the fault surface for a system‐wide failure by conditioning the large‐scale stress field. Our results are consistent overall with an evolving process of intermittent criticality leading to large failure events, and may contribute to improved forecasting of large natural earthquakes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗